Hi,

I just wanted to say I’m a huge fan of your site.  I think you do a fantastic job and have great analysis (as well as it being very funny).  The reason I’m writing you is that my 10 team long time keeper league is looking for a celebrity expert to mock the first 2 rounds of our 2009 draft.  It’s a typical 5 X 5 Roto and all the information (keepers, roster sizes, innings limit) is neatly organized.  We wouldn’t be expecting a write up on each pick, just the picks.  We have been together as a group a long time and everyone is excited about some expert analysis during this long off season.  My league is well aware of your site and are regular visitors.  I understand you are a busy guy but perhaps you would have some time in the next few months.  If you would, please let me know.  Our group would be thrilled.

Thanks,

Tim L.

Look what asking nice and the appropriate flattery will get you…  Actually, Rudy and I discussed whether or not to go ahead with this. As gracious as Tim L. is, I’m not trying to alienate all of our other readers just because some dooode said I was “very funny.” No, the clincher was when he said I was a “celebrity expert.”  Now that’s appropriate flattery.  Also, I felt the rest of youse might be able to take something away from this exercise.  If you think this is stewpid like kewpid bizzlenitch then scroll down, I’m sure there’s some other fantasy baseball nonsense to entertain you.

Tim L.’s Final 2008 league standings were:

2008 FINAL STANDINGS
1.  Axles                            75.5
2. Blazin Ballz                  73.5
3. Zak Dream Team          60.0
4. Bombadils                     57.0
5. Explosive Renteria        54.5
6. Levitra Nights               54.0
7. Canuckaroos                 53.5
8. Wildhack Old Sox        50.0
9. D Town Troubadours   50.0
10. Norfolk Shipriders     22.0

So a big belated congrats to Axles, way to stay on top of those Blazin Ballz. I tell you the standings because as Cypress Hill once said, “How do you know where you’re going, if you don’t know where ya been?  Understand where I’m comin’ from?”  We do, B-Real.  We do.  I also tell you this so you know who’s fantasy deficient cough Shipriders cough and might have the least to work with for 2009. Then we also have a long list of keepers; these teams keep 16 players a piece, so you can imagine there’s not many players to be drafted. (For the mathematically challenged, the first pick is a bit like pick #161.) The top ranked hitter is Chipper Jones.  So, it’s not exactly the cream of the crop, but it’s not the cream of the crap either.  Tim L. asked me to mock the first 2 rounds of this keeper league draft without commentary.  I’m doing the first round with commentary:

1st pick overall – JJ Hardy by Explosive Renteria (cute). Their team has one of the strongest offensives (Wright, Utley, Victorino, McCann, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips and Furcal) and a very decent staff (Beckett, Haren, Lester, Jar-Jar Jurrjens and potentially Morrow).  Since this team is dealing with Utley’s injury and Furcal’s penchant for pulling a Kotchman, Hardy’s the choice. It’ll give them a strong UT and a very solid MI backup for when Phillips fills in for Utley in the beginning of the season or if/when Furcal goes down. This team is my preseason choice for 1st in 2009 as long as they pick up some speed later in the draft.

2nd and 3rd picks — Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco by the Canuckaroos. This team has no starters and its entire offense is filled, so a bat isn’t even an option.  They also have three top ten picks from trades. Vazquez and Nolasco are the picks here because if you have no starters, you need to make sure you get a horse that will give you 200 IP and 30 starts; that’s Vazquez.  Then Nolasco was flatout genius last year. He posted a incredible K:BB rate at the end of 2008; a rate that should have him on your radar.  FYI, some of the other top pitching options available were Brett Myers, Harang and Carmona.  I contemplated Derek Lowe briefly over Nolasco, but with no starters he needs Ks and I think Lowe will be there for their 7th overall pick. Finally, I don’t want Myers or Harang as my first starter in 2009. This team needs steady and upside and that’s what I’ve given it.  You’re welcome.

4th pick — Chipper Jones by the Wildhack Old Sox. This is a bit of a no-brainer with their team. They have outfielders like Jolie’s got orphans (Holliday, Mags, Grady, Votto, Hart) and they have decent enough pitching for a ten team league (Wainwright, F-Her, Kazmir and Gallardo). Yet they have no 3rd baseman or Corner Infidel.  Guess what they have now?  Chipper…. Jones…

5th pick — Derek Lowe by the D Town Troubadours and the Canuckaroos suck their teeth as they are mock scooped by the Troubadours.  I choose Lowe here because their top starter is Verlander.  There’s always 2010, Troubadours.

6th pick — Carlos Delgado by the Blazin Ballz.  Blazin Ballz had one of those dream seasons in 2008 where everything goes right.  And they still came in 2nd.  They had Harden, Pedroia, Halladay, Ervin, Kerry Wood, Manny and Josh Hamilton.  Since they kept them all, their 2009 relies on most of those players duplicating their 2008 successes.  I think they’re in for a “Ravishing” Rick Rude Awakening.  Too many outliers worries me.  As for the Delgado pick, it’s between him Peralta, Burrell, Hawpe and Abreu.  I went with Delgado because this team doesn’t have a 3rd baseman or a corner man, so they can fill outfield and MI later, while 3rd and corner will get tight.  They also have the team average that can handle Delgado’s .265 average.

7th pick — Ted Lilly by the Canuckaroos. See my description of their team’s weaknesses above at the 2nd pick.  Ted Lilly is the most reliable pitcher on the board.  I still don’t want Myers, Harang and I’m not a fan of Carmona.  Also, as aforementioned, I would’ve went with Lowe if he wasn’t scooped.

8th pick — Brett Myers by the Bombadils. Their pitching staff is Ben Sheets, Jobacum, Phil Hughes, Brian “The Brain” Fuentes and Joseph Jason Putz (not sure if they had to keep on keeping Putz, but he was in the literature I was given). As an amateur porn star somewhere in the San Fernando Valley once said, “Excuse me for vomiting on your staff.”  I took Myers because I want him over Harang and Carmona for 2009.

9th pick — Jorge Cantu by Axeles. This team has no 1st baseman, 3rd baseman or corner man (obviously). Their pitching is sick as in healthy not sick as in sick (Johan, Lincecum, Peavy, Hamels, Joba, Liriano, K-Rod, Papelbon and Kershaw).  The offense they do have is Jose Reyes, Alexei, The Upton Bros., Maybin, Carlos Gomez and Kemp.  So now they just need Johan and Lincecum to hit 80 home runs apiece. I choose Cantu for them because he’s the biggest power threat left at a corner spot.

10th pick — Jhonny Peralta by the Blazin Ballz.  I explained this team’s weakness up at the 6th pick.  Again, this team has the team average to sustain Peralta’s .265 average and they have the oddly placed steals of Mauer to offset Peralta’s lack of steals.  This team will need to think about SAGNOF later in the draft and grab some steals.

QUESTION:

Love the site, and wanted to ask you another trade question if possible.  12 team, daily transaction, mixed keeper (five) league.  There is a 1500 innings limit, hence my large number of setup guys.  Currently, I am rolling, big time, but looking down the road I was offered a trade today that I am considering, but would like some feedback.  Here’s my current lineup:

Webb, Brandon (P)
Jenks, Bobby (P)
Lincecum, Tim (P)
Guardado, Eddie (P)-Yeah, I know he’s gotta go soon…..
Franklin, Ryan (P)
Saunders, Joe (P)
Scherzer, Max (P)
Maine, John (P)
Cain, Matt (P)
Buchholz, Taylor (P)
McGowan, Dustin (P)

Soto, Geovany (C)
Napoli, Mike (C)
Jackson, Conor (1B)
Hudson, Orlando (2B)
Cantu, Jorge (3B)
Rollins-ss
Guillen-CI
Pedroia-MI
CLee-OF
Berkman-OF
Matsui-OF
Bay-OF
Werth-OF
Stairs-OF
Crede-Bench
D.DeJesus-Bench
C.Ianetta-Bench
Figgins-DL
Keppinger-DL

Currently, I am in the top four in everything ‘cept saves. I originally offered dude Matt Cain for Brian Wilson.  He comes back with Cain and Berkman for ARod, Brian Wilson, Delmon Young, and Brian Bannister. I’m thinking that I can swap out Bannister for Billingsley. Here’s dude’s roster:

P      Bannister, Brian (KC)
P     Wilson, Brian (SF)
P     Chamberlain, Joba (NYA)
P     Weaver, Jered (LAA)
P     Billingsley, Chad (LAD)
P     Myers, Brett (PHI)
P     Saito, Takashi (LAD)
P     Rivera, Mariano (NYA)
P     Rodriguez, Francisco (LAA)
C     Martin, Russell (LAD)
C     Towles, J.R. (HOU)
1B     Garko, Ryan (CLE)
2B     Phillips, Brandon (CIN)
3B     Mora, Melvin (BAL)
SS     Young, Michael (TEX)
CI     Hinske, Eric (TB)
MI     Iwamura, Akinori (TB)
OF     Bowker, John (SF)
OF     Young, Delmon (MIN)
OF     Patterson, Corey (CIN)
OF     Upton, Justin (ARI)
OF     Ethier, Andre (LAD)
Util     Giambi, Jason (NYA)
Bn     Headley, Chase (SD)
Bn     Gonzalez, Gio (OAK)
Bn     Bruce, Jay (CIN)
Bn     Gomes, Jonny (TB)
DL     Rodriguez, Alex DL (NYA)

Whaddya think?  Berkman certainly can’t keep up this pace, but damn is he good this year…..Thanks in advance and keep up the good work.  Your blog has been a must read for me

ANSWER:

Thanks for reading the blog and writing into us!

It’s good you’re looking down the road as it’s easy to stand pat after a big start.  I like your team but, obviously, some of your team’s success is from fast (and probably unsustainable) stars by Webb, Lincecum, Maine, Berkman, and your Soto/Napoli catcher tandem.

I’m going to go with the assumption that he won’t swap Bannister for Billingsley (who is on par with Cain – so what’s the point?).  I’d say Bannister and D. Young (at this point) are barely above the value of free agents so I don’t factor them in.  You’re looking at Cain/Berkman for B-Wilson/A-Rod.

I’d go for it.  A-Rod is a big upgrade over Cantu or Figgins and should be back soon.  If you’re in a Yahoo! league, you can move Figgins to 2B or MI when he gets back.  Cain/Wilson is close to a wash given how much you can gain from more Saves.  And, who knows, maybe Delmon Young comes around…he does have 20/20 potential.  Adding Billingsley makes it that much bettter of a trade…

Hurts to give up Berkman but I feel like you’re selling high.

Good luck!

QUESTION:

Thanks to Rudy for your advice in the comments on Sunday; this query’s a bit bigger, thought I’d submit it to Ask the ‘Perts. Any thoughts appreciated, sorry I tend to go on a bit.

I’ve got a pretty simple question, but it’s a like a Russian doll that keeps opening up more questions: What do you think of Jimmy Rollins’s speed value coming back?

If you think he’ll be fine, you can stop reading.

If not….

I’ve built my offense for balance, with Weeks, Rollins, and Markakis providing regular steals, Berkman(!) and Hermida chipping in occasionally, and Ellsbury & Pierre giving me options if I’m in a tight spot. Is it worth trying to maintain that balance when one of my biggest SB-threats may be reduced to a power-hitting SS?

I can probably still flip Markakis + Weeks for David Ortiz and Robinson Cano (and maybe a SP upgrade, say DiceK to Felix), use Ellsbury as a chip to upgrade power or  pitching as necessary, and try to own HR/RBI/XBH (plus maybe AVG + R if I’m lucky).

In terms of pitching, depending on how many good starts I’ve got, I’m currently flipping between trying for L/ERA/WHIP, and (if that doesn’t work) throwing everything I’ve got against the wall and hoping W’s, SV’s and K’s stick. I figure if I can upgrade to one more top-tier starter and another closer, I can own L/ERA/WHIP, with saves a little better than a coin-flip (This league uses 3 pitchers/day, no differentiation between SP/RP, 25 inning minimum). One advantage to getting rid of my speed-options on the bench is having more space for speculative RPers, and space to stream should my elite starters shit the bed, or if I’m facing the team that starts Peavy/Beckett/Halladay.

So, what are your thoughts on focusing on dominating certain categories (plus a little roster flexibility) vs. overall strength (but no flexibility)? It seems easy on paper to take 6 categories each week and hope for at least one tie, but it’s a pretty damn slim margin of error.

Full details:
12 team daily mixed league, 20 player roster, 25 innings minimum/week, no limit on player moves; 1 player/position on offense plus Util; 3 Pitchers (SP or RP).

R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB/XBH
W/L/ERA/SV/WHIP/K

Current ‘Balanced’ roster:
C Victor Martinez
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Felipe Lopez
3B R. Zimmerman
OF L. Berkman
OF N. Markakis
OF J. Hermida
Util Conor Jackson

Bench
J. Dye
J. Ellsbury
J. Pierre
[J. Rollins DL]

D. Matsuzaka
C. Zambrano
Javier Vazquez
C. Buchholz
J. Weaver
R. Betancourt
B. Wilson
S. Casilla

Proposed Lineup:
Victor Martinez
David Ortiz
Robinson Cano
Zimmerman
JRoll
L. Berkman
J. Hermida
J. Dye/upgrade
C. Jackson/Adrian Gonzalez (whoever isn’t traded)
Backup power bat (Votto, M. Bradley, M. Alou currently available)

C. Zambrano
F. Hernandez/B. Webb/C. Hamels (via trade)
J Vazquez
Betancourt
Brian Wilson
Closer (via trade)
S. Casilla
C. Qualls (FA)
Streamer/speculative RP
Streamer

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I don’t think there’s one way to build a team.  My goal is to be competitive in all stats (too hard to win and punt a category – at least in non-H2H leagues).  So I just look for best value and, if i find enough of it, I end up w/ some flexibility.

Markakis/Weeks for Ortiz/Cano is a good trade in my book.  Tough to give up Markakis but OF are devalued in a 3 OF vs. 5 OF league more than 1B w/o a CI.  Ortiz ranks higher on my Point Shares – in draft terms, Ortiz is a high-2nd round in my book and Markakis is a 3rd/4th round pick.  Cano hasn’t looked good this year but seems to be a solid bounceback candidate.  And he’s ranked higher than Weeks.  So, yeah, I’d make that trade and move A-Gonz to UTIL (Conor Jackson is bench-worthy).

I’m not sure I mentioned it in my first reply/post to you, but I wouldn’t worry too much on SB.  You just need enough to stay competitive in it.  With the addition of XBH, it makes an SB-specialist that much more debilitating.  I’d definitely pick up Votto if he’s available (probably not anymore) as he could play OF and has 15 SB potential.

While it wouldn’t hurt to pick up another starter, it isn’t imperative.  I don’t think you have much else to offer if you trade Markakis.  I’d stick w/ that move and then play the FA wire.  You don’t need both Ellsbury and Pierre.  Dump or trade one for a usable arm.  Dump Weaver too – there should be better options out there.

Hope this helps…

QUESTION:

Now, I am not going to say which side of the deal I am on but here is a trade that went down in my league yesterday:

Team A agreed to deal Yovani Gallardo to Team B for Nick Markakis yesterday morning.  Unfortunately, we play in a league that votes on trades (I know…whole other topic there).  The commissioner announced the deal prior to the Brewers game.  Four votes trickled in before the news broke today regarding Gallardo being out for the year.

My question is this:

Should league owners be voting on this trade based on when the deal was agreed upon or based on circumstances that have occurred since then.

ANSWER:

Your league owners SHOULD be reviewing this trade without factoring in the injury news as that was the status of Gallardo when the trade was made.  Same as if Gallardo went out there and threw a no-hitter or gave up 8 runs in the first.

Whether they will or not is another matter.

I think there’s a fair argument that Markakis is worth more than Gallardo in any case.  Not enough that I would veto (Razzball is anti-veto) but the case could be made by a veto-friendly owner.  (The tough part is knowing whether the injury pushes them over the edge.)

Let us know how it turns out.

QUESTION:

In the 9-team 8×8 roto league with L, CG, K/BB, H, TB, and XBH added to basic Yahoo! 5×5.  I’m trying to become more independent of experts and pundits and such with my analyses and player projections, and I think I’m getting the hang of it.  What I would like to know is how you get your BAO, briefly, and what your BAO lines are for 2008.  I think I found your batting lines of

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

but I do not have anything for pitchers except a reference to Carlos Silva and 3.96 / 1.32.  What are the expectations for SP and RP BAO this year?

As for my team, I’ve done tons of trades since the beginning of the season and it’s changed quite a bit.  My current roster:

C – Geovany Soto
1B – Garrett Atkins
2B – Chase Utley
3B – Aramis Ramirez
SS – Ryan Theriot
OF – Matt Holliday
OF – Alex Ríos
OF – Carl Crawford
Util – Josh Hamilton
BN – Justin Upton
BN – Conor Jackson
BN – Evan Longoria
DL – Troy Tulowitzki

SP – Cole Hamels
SP – James Shields
RP – J. J. Putz
RP – Joe Nathan
P – Matt Capps
P – Javier Vázquez
P – Santiago Casilla
BN – Max Scherzer
BN – Garrett Olson
DL – Rafael Soriano
DL – John Lackey

Now for a few specific questions about my team, if you’d be so kind.  Is Putz something to worry about?  He pitched 94 and 95 mph consistently during that blown save, just never in the strike zone.  I already made an offer of Geovany Soto for Bobby Jenks today (Dioner Navarro and Jeff Clement are FA) just in case.  Next, I kicked Brett Myers to the curb the day before Gallardo blew his ACL.  Is the long toss really his answer, or is he trash this year?  I’m personally beginning to think he punched his wife on a ‘roid rage.  My other available options besides him are Jonathan Broxton, Wandy Rodríguez, John Danks, and Shawn Hill.  With Soriano likely losing his job to Smoltz I have also had an eye on Rich Harden, who may come back for 10 to 20 minutes in the near future.  What do you think?

Also if you see any glaring weaknesses in my team (besides CG, I don’t have one yet and am one of only 3 teams with none) let me know.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Here’s the 2007 BAO for pitchers:
Starters – 11 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 191 IP, 132 Ks
Relievers – 4 W, 6 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 68 IP, 61 K

(The 3.96/1.32 is the composite of the two)

The BAO methodology is laid out HERE.

I can’t provide it for 2008 as it requires having a full year of stats and then determining the replacement level totals for each stat for each position.  I could’ve done this based on 2008 projections but I moved to the Point Shares methodology (explanation and methodology HERE.  It’s an improvement in our eyes as it ties back to Roto points.

If you’re trying to do something based on BAO, I’d just work off the same totals as last year.  It’s too early to assume any major shifts between the two years.

I don’t see why you’d trade Soto for Jenks as you seem set on closers.  Too early to bail on Putz.  Nathan and Capps are solid.  I’d think Smoltz would close if he relieves, so Soriano would be out.  If you can get anything for him, go ahead.  Otherwise, he’s probably useless in your league.   Hamels, Shields, and Vazquez are a solid starting three.  Lackey is due back on May 14th.  Nice you got Scherzer.  Not sure why you have Olson – is he a friend of the family?  I don’t see any FA out there that would replace your pitching lineup so it’s not a big deal.

Tough break with Tulo.  Theriot is your weakest link but he’s been hot. Assuming no one is stashing SS on their bench, you should be able to rotate SS for a while.

QUESTION:

I’m in a 10 team 5×5 league with a 1400 inning max for pitchers. I am currently in second, but sitting next to last in RBI’s and K’s. I’m hoping Howard will step up and give me some RBI’s soon. Someone is shopping Verlander right now. I need to get rid of some offensive players and pick up more pitchers, but the waiver wire is pretty sad. Do you have any suggestions?

SP Peavy, Jake (SD)
SP Zambrano, Carlos (CHN)
SP Wood, Kerry (CHN)
SP Vazquez, Javier (CHA)
SP Volquez, Edison (CIN)
RP Rauch, Jon (WAS)
RP Wilson, C.J. (TEX)
RP Percival, Troy (TB)
P Wellemeyer, Todd (STL)
Bn Wolf, Randy (SD)

C Doumit, Ryan (PIT)
C Soto, Geovany (CHN)
1B Howard, Ryan (PHI)
2B Upton, B.J. (TB)
3B Gordon, Alex (KC)
SS Furcal, Rafael (LAD)
LF Lee, Carlos (HOU)
CF Young, Chris B. (ARI)
RF Quentin, Carlos (CHA)
IF Morneau, Justin (MIN)
OF Figgins, Chone (LAA)
OF Markakis, Nick (BAL)
Util Blalock, Hank (TEX)
Bn Crosby, Bobby (OAK)
Bn Kemp, Matt (LAD)
Bn Young, Michael (TEX)
Bn Young, Delmon (MIN)
DL Westbrook, Jake DL (CLE)
DL Victorino, Shane DL (PHI)
DL Gwynn, Tony (MIL)

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Given you could only use 5 starters, there has to be someone with 7-8 good starters, no?

I’d definitely pick up Verlander. That’s going to require a big chip. My recommendation is Furcal. I’m a big fan of his this year but 1) you’ve got Michael Young and 2) you’ve got more than enough speed. The difference b/w Furcal and Young when you factor out speed isn’t very big.

You may want to scan the rest of the teams to see who is weak in speed and strong in SP. Furcal should fetch a good 2nd tier starter. You may also want to consider another power bat, if you can’t find a starter to plug in at OF or UTIL. If you could get the same deal for Figgins or Victorino, I’d do that instead (I like Furcal better than those two.)

QUESTION:

I could really use some help with one of my teams. It’s my highest stakes team and probably my most disappointing to date. I feel a bit outclassed to be honest. It’s a 13 team, 5×5 mixed non-keeper with OBP instead of BA.

TEAM’S JPG

Obviously my most pressing needs are SB and SV. I could use runs too but that’s usually a byproduct of the steals. My starting pitching is kind of thin/injured after trading Snell for Valverde (thanks for the advice on that by the way. i’m feeling good about Valverde’s last 2 outings, and finally a 1-2-3 yesterday), so I’m thinking of trading a little power or obp for steals/runs.

Anyway, I’ve been offered two trades from the same guy. Granderson for C.Pena and Broxton, or Cano for C.Pena. Pena’s value obviously goes up a bunch in this league, as he goes from a likely BA killer, to a neutral OBP. I like the cano deal but it doesn’t solve my problems. I think if I got Granderson, I’d be content with my speed situation, but I really hate moving broxton. He has no one else I really want other than Percival and Wood, which he wants too much for. I might be able to add Maine for Percival but I don’t even want to do that, do I?

Who are some good targets for me to go after? And who do you think are good players for me to trade away? Having Wheeler and Qualls (and Reyes and Pena are FA), I’d feel a lot more comfortable getting Percival or Lyon than someone like Wood, as someone owns Marmol.

Anyway, sorry that was long winded, but any advice at all would be much appreciated. I’m not panicking, especially with my #1 pick struggling, but I definitely want to address my needs. Thanks, guys.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

I’m not a huge fan of Granderson and don’t think he’ll ever be a major SB contributor (maybe 30?) as he doesn’t have that instinct. Kinda like Bernie Williams. But Carlos Pena and Broxton isn’t that big of a price given that OFs are more valuable than 1B. I’d prefer to hold tight and see how the Flyin’ Hawaiian recovers….

Cano for C. Pena doesn’t help you on speed but would definitely help upgrade the offense you get out of MI. Based on preseason Point Shares, I’ve got Cano being more valuable than Cano but that is based on AVG vs. OBP. I’d say it’s a toss-up. Remember that even if you’re not particularly weak in categories, any opportunity to improve nets you points.

I wouldn’t sweat saves. Looks like based on the other team totals that you’re not the only one scrounging. Valverde would help. Maybe Corpas comes around. Hopefully you snag another anointed closer. You can always make a trade in July/August if it isn’t working out.

Otherwise, I think your team is in pretty good shape. Can’t think of anyone I’d particularly target for acquisition or trading. But any trade that makes you stronger helps…

Hey,

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 Roto League. I’d appreciate any advice you have on possible lineup moves to make to improve my team.

C- McCann
1B- Hafner
2B/OF- Upton
SS-Reyes
3B/OF-Braun
OF/1B-Berkman
OF- D.Young
OF- Victorino
OF-Dye
3B- Blaylock

SP-
Harang
Shields
Burnett
McGowan
Cueto
Greinke
Lilly

RP
Papelbon
Lyons
T.Pena
C.Cordero
Moylan

Also, surprisingly Matt Kemp was dropped in my league and i’ll put a claim in on him. who should I drop? (I was thinking Lilly)

Thanks. I love your site and look forward to your insight.

P.S. If I traded Papelbon give me a list of 5 hitters who would be great to get for him.

GREY’S ANSWER

Thanks for writing in and frequenting the site. You rock. First off, drop Lilly for Kemp, you’re going to need him for a few of these potential trades work. Okay, now your team looks solid. The only trouble areas I see are Blalock (CI), potentially D.Young and your closers after Papelbon aren’t great. With the setup men on your team, I’m going to assume you’re quick to get to the waiver wire. This will be key if you trade away Papelbon. You have lots of position flexibility so there’s lots of trades you can do, which is good.

First possible trade — Blalock is by far your weakest piece, move Berkman to corner and trade Blalock and Papelbon for a top outfielder. I’d target Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn packaged with a third tier closer (Soria, Capps or Isringhausen, etc). Don’t settle for less. Don’t go after Crawford. Your team already has enough speed.

Second possible trade — Trade Papelbon and Blalock for a top third basemen or first basemen. I’d shoot for Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Mark Teixeira, Aramis Ramirez or Garrett Atkins, in that order.  Don’t settle for anyone less than Atkins.

Third possible trade — Trade Papelbon, D. Young and Blalock for Matt Holliday and try to get a third tier closer thrown in (again Soria, Capps or Isringhausen, etc).

The options where you don’t get a third tier closer in return are the riskiest. If you don’t get that next setup man to become a closer, you might be scrambling for saves. But no risk, no reward. My favorite option that I’ve suggested is the third because it nets you the best player I’ve suggested. If you can get Holliday, move Berkman to corner, snag Kemp and hopefully get a Soria throw-in, your team will be golden.

Hey,
I got a huge trade offer. Someone offered me Utley, Oliver Perez and Aaron Rowand for Crawford, Isringhausen, and Sherrill. What should I do? Here is my roster.

Geovany Soto
(ChC – C)
Garrett Atkins
(Col – 1B,3B)
Ian Kinsler
(Tex – 2B)
Edwin Encarnación
(Cin – 3B)
Jimmy Rollins
(Phi – SS)
Álex Ríos
(Tor – OF)
Nick Markakis
(Bal – OF)
Corey Hart
(Mil – OF)
Carl Crawford (in UTIL slot)
(TB – OF)
Bobby Abreu (in UTIL slot)
(NYY – OF)
Chris Young
(SD – SP)
Tim Lincecum
(SF – SP)
James Shields
(TB – SP)
Jason Isringhausen
(StL – RP)
Joakim Soria
(KC – RP)
Heath Bell
(SD – RP)

Bench

George Sherrill
(Bal – RP)
Brian Wilson
(SF – RP)
Rafael Betancourt
(Cle – RP)
Ted Lilly
(ChC – SP)
Jair Jurrjens
(Atl – SP)
Huston Street
(Oak – RP)
Randy Wolf
(SD – SP)
Edison Vólquez
(Cin – SP)
Andy Sonnanstine
(TB – SP)
Wandy Rodríguez
(Hou – SP)
Ervin Santana
(LAA – SP)
Dana Eveland
(Oak – P)
Manny Parra
(Mil – RP)
Yovani Gallardo
(Mil – SP)

Rudy’s answer:
I’m assuming this is a 5×5 league w/ 8 to 10 teams.

Based on that, I see this as a two for three trade b/c Rowand is just a bench player. Utley‘s biggest plus is that he plays 2B but you’ve got Kinsler there and no MI slot in your league. You’ve got more than enough closers for the 3 spots so the relievers aren’t that important but you’ve got three starters better than Oliver Perez as well.

I’d say make the trade b/c your team looks stronger on SB vs. HR/RBI and Utley is an upgrade over Crawford. You’ve got a 4th OF in Abreu so you’re fine on OF depth. Oliver Perez is better than some of your bench starters and might pay off at some point (more than Sherrill will anyway…)

Hope this helps.

Grey’s answer:

Your team look pretty stacked as it is, but why not try and make it better, right? So, first off, Utley and Crawford are the top two dogs in the trade. From the looks of your team, you’ll be simply switching them out, since you don’t need a 2nd basemen or an outfielder. I really like Crawford this year. I think those people who are saying he’ll never see 25 home runs are neglecting he’s still only going to be 27 in 2008. There is a possibility he hits 25 home runs, and it could be this year. As for, Utley — Well, he’s better. He has hit 25 home runs already and will again. His projections are 120/32/115/.325/12. You will lose at least thirty steals going from Crawford to Utley, but you have a solid, well-rounded foundation. You can afford to take the hit in steals.

Then there’s Oliver Perez and the other schmohawk for Izzy (kinda crap) and Sherrill (extreme crap). Oliver Perez is the next best player in this trade, so you’re getting the top two players in this trade and you’re asking me if you should do it? I know, you’re worried you’re trading too many saves away. Well, Sherrill is good for nothing. I watched the Orioles the other day. They’re not winning 70 games. Sherrill will be lucky to get 25 saves and he’s never closed before, so he’s far from a sure thing. You’re not trading away Valverde at the beginning of last year here. Sherrill’s not going to come out of nowhere and save 45 games. As for Izzy, he’s a reliable closer who will probably chuck in 30-35 saves. So you lost about 55 saves in this trade, big whoop. You have a few closers and I think you’ll manage fine. If you need saves in July, you trade someone for a reliable closer. Oh, and drop Rowand and pick up Mota or Turnbow or Riske, one of them will be closing soon.

Hope this helps.

Hey,

Your fantasy baseball site is by far the best I’ve found on the web. Reading your blog posts over the past few months, I went from a college football fanatic who keeps an eye on the MLB and March Madness to a hopeless sports addict–now that I’m so into fantasy I have no offseason.

So as I’m sorta new to this, I have one question if you have the time. I’m in a 9-team Yahoo! money league with AVG, H, R, HR, RBI, SB, TB, XBH / W, L, K, SV, ERA, WHIP, CG, K/BB. I didn’t draft a pitcher until round 9. I’ll try to recall the rounds I got these guys, but I’m honestly very worried about my pitching. Would you recommend trading one of my higher round batters for a starter?

C Geovany Soto (18)
1B Mark Teixeira (3)
2B Chase Utley (2)
3B Aramis Ramirez (5)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (6)
OF Carlos Lee (4)
OF Matt Holliday (1)
OF Nick Markakis (7)
OF Adam Dunn (8) — wasn’t planned, just had to pick him up in 8
BN Matt Kemp (16)
BN Michael Bourn (19)
BN Alex Gordon (14)
BN Eugenio Velez (W)

SP Javier Vázquez (11)
SP James Shields (13)
SP Adam Wainwright (16)
SP Manny Parra (20)
SP Edison Vólquez (W)
RP Joe Nathan (9)
RP Francisco Cordero (15)
RP Chad Cordero (17)
DL John Lackey (10)
DL Yovani Gallardo (12)
DL Chris Carpenter (W)

Now that I write it out, it does look like I have a lot of pitchers, but 3 on the DL still makes ya frown. What’s the verdict?

Rudy’s answer:

Thanks for the kind words and frequenting our site.

The first thing we need to consider is your league – 9 team MLB with only 4 OF + no CI, MI, or UTIL. And 8 categories instead of the basic 5.

Having only 9 teams + less offensive slots means you can’t fool around with subpar performers. Factoring in that two of your three categories (TB, XBH) favor power hitters, the value of SB-dependent players like Michael Bourn drops greatly. I’d suggest a virtual punting of SB at this point and concentrate on the other 7 stats.

Your pitching has some promise – particularly the bullpen where you’ve got three of the potentially top 15 closers. Even in a 9 team league that’s good. As for your starters, if every team needs to have 5 starters, you’re talking about 45 starters in play. You’ve got 4 starters I’d put in the top 45 (add Gallardo to your top three) AND you don’t have a top 10 starter. You do have some promise in the young arms (Parra/Volquez) but young starters usually don’t pan out. (Note: I didn’t count Lackey as you have to assume right now he’s going to be out for the year – despite what the Angels are saying.

The players I’d look to trade are Dunn, Kemp, Bourn, Volquez, and Chad Cordero. I’d be targeting a top 12 starter. Here’s the top 12 based on our Point Shares projections:

Santana
Peavy
Webb
Beckett
Sabathia
Bedard
Smoltz
Hamels
Kazmir
Haren
Verlander
Harang

Look for the teams with 2-3 of these pitchers and try to grab one. I think an offer of Kemp/Dunn + Volquez would be tough to turn down. Dunn alone might be enough. If you’re getting misty about Volquez, note that he might strike out a lot but he walks a lot too so he’ll hurt your WHIP and K/BB ratios. Given the K/BB ratio, I’d also consider making a run for Ben Sheets who has awesome K/BB stats.

Hope this helps.