Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day we looked at the top free agent hitters in 2008 and now we go over some of the top free agent pitchers for 2008. Similarly to the other day, these are not all of the free agent pitchers. So there’s no reason to write in about how we forgot Josh Fogg. He was remembered then forgotten; there’s a difference. These free agent pitchers could potentially see their fantasy value take a hit or surge with a team move.  A list of all the free agents is here. Anyway, here’s some top free agents for 2008, the pitchers’ edition:

CC Sabathia – Sabathia almost didn’t make this list. Not because he’s not a free agent. He is, a top one at that. I just don’t see his value changing a whole lot with a new team. If he goes to the Yankees, he’ll be facing tougher hitters than the NL Central — pho sho! He’ll still be dominant and he’ll still be coming off a season when he was overworked.

Ben Sheets – Here’s another guy that I don’t think gets that affected by free agency as long as he stays healthy– Just as I was typing that, a butterfly in the Republic of Djibouti flapped its wings and Ben Sheets pulled an abdominal muscle.

Brian Fuentes – Fuentes needs to land with a team that needs a closer for him to retain his value. Otherwise, his value will be this.

Francisco Rodriguez – Wherever he lands, he’ll get at least 70 saves next year. (<–sarcasm) He might benefit a bit by the move to the NL (since he’s almost definitely going to the Mets), but he’s still never going to see a saves season like he just did.

Oliver Perez – All indications are that Perez will vacate Queens. I could see Perez hurt by a move. A new team will have to figure out what makes Oliver Perez work then try to duplicate it from start to start. Good. Luck.

A.J. Burnett – The number one crazy hot chick in baseball. One day, a shutout and 12 Ks. Next day, pretending to be pregnant so you won’t go out with the fellas. Burnett’s a fantasy ulcer waiting to happen.

I have a rotten taste in my mouth and it’s called, “Holliday is traded to the A’s.” Not sure how much Billy Beane’s recently widowed aunt left him in the will, but it obviously must’ve been a tidy sum. The A’s just made themselves a contender. Or a contenda if Marlon Brando’s ghost is a Razzball reader. For those in NL-Only leagues, Holliday’s loss is your loss. In AL-Only leagues, you just got yourself a nice new addition. Pitchers going to Coors and Holliday going to a pitcher’s division. There’s that rotten taste again. The Holliday trade from a fantasy perspective:

Matt Holliday – Takes a huge hit on his value, but it doesn’t completely zap all of his value. As a Rockie, he was a 1st rounder. This knocks him back to the third round. He is a lot more of an average hitter than a big bomber. Let’s not forget, he only hit 25 home runs calling Coors home. Now he’ll be dealing with pitchers he’s not as familiar with and dealing with a ginormous foul territory.  Rumor has it that the foul territory in Oakland is home to Bigfoot. No one’s sure because half of it is unexplored like the Arctic. Holliday will play most of his games in pitcher’s parks in a pitching division. A slight change from Coors where the air was as light as LC and Audrina conversations — No, Brody looked at me first! Not to mention, the A’s intestinal suckitude when it comes to moving runners and stealing. The steps forward Holliday took in adding speed into his game in 2008 may take a step back in 2009. Then there’s the fact it’ll be a walk year for Holliday since the A’s won’t negotiate a contract with him (unless Beane’s dead aunt was really wealthy). So, in a walk year, it’s conceivable to think Holliday will A) Try to do too much and do less B) Not run to avoid injury C) There is no C but I believe in rule of threes. Overall, Holliday’s fantasy value takes a hit, but he’s still a number one outfielder and a 3rd rounder overall. Think Justin Morneau in the OF.

With the 2008 rankings in the books — yo it’s in the books, ya’ll! — we set our eyes on the top free agents during this 2008 offseason. First we look at some hitter free agents and how they might be affected for fantasy baseball purposes. This won’t be a list of all the free agent hitters. If you want that, it’s here. This is just a list of some of the bigger free agent hitters that I feel like discussing and how their free agency may affect them for 2009. Also, this list won’t mention any guys that are potentially moving this offseason via trade. I hear Billy Butler might be traded so that might affect his 2009, but he won’t be mentioned here, except, ya know, right there where I just mentioned him. Anyway, here’s the top 2008 free agents, the hitters’ edition:

Manny Ramirez – His move from the hitter’s park of Fenway to the pitcher’s park of Dodgers Stadium showed that wherever he ends up, he can hit.  I’m more worried about motivation for Manny in 2009.  Depending on the scope of the deal he eventually lands, he may phone-in the rest of his career. Yo, career, this is Manny. I’m not playing today. I’m IM’ing with Big Papi. Say hello to your mother for me.

Mark Teixeira – The lineup Teixeira ends up in could have a factor on his 2009 production, but Teixeira flip-flops leagues and hits fine — just not as much as he supposedly can. I say “supposedly can” because somewhere along the line he was labeled a 45 home run guy. He’s not a 45 home run guy, unless he goes to Coors.

Milton Bradley – He was in a great hitter’s park in 2008 — See 2005 and 2006 Teixeira — and Bradley’s an injury flake. Don’t let a Major League team overpaying this offseason for Bradley convince you you need him on your fantasy team. Sorry, Milton Bradley is not fun for all ages.

Pat Burrell – Be interesting to see the Mets make a run for Pat the Bat just so they can avoid facing him. Burrell will potentially lose a few home runs with a move, but he’s 30/95/.250 hitter just about everywhere — for at least another couple of years.

Bobby Abreu – If he goes to, say, the Mariners — yuck. If Abreu goes to the Padres — yuck with two sides of blech. Leaving the Yankees could hurt Abreu’s value. If you’re considering keeping him, you need to keep this in mind.

Nope. Not yet at least. I’m not sure Peavy will be traded either. The Padres are asking for too much, but let’s play The Devil’s Advocate for a second. “Whoa… Hoo-Hah!” Get it? Cause I was playing The Devil’s Advocate, which starred Keanu and Pacino so I said, “Whoa–” Forget it.  So if Peavy is traded, what would this mean for fantasy baseball? Well, if Peavy is traded to the Braves, the run support gets ticked up. If Peavy is traded to the Yankees, more run support. Frankly, if Peavy is traded to the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, he’s going to receive more run support.  Now if Peavy is traded to the Cubs, Yankees, Braves or anywhere, he’ll also be leaving the friendly “can’t-finds a bigger stadium than Petco.” In the end, Peavy is variations of the same pitcher no matter where he gets traded, but the traded variation is definitely a lower-grade Peavy than we’ve seen in the past.

Jake Peavy’s Away ERA in 2008 was 4.28. Home ERA was 1.75. Peavy’s three year average ERA Away from Petco is 3.73 — a full run higher than his home ERA. Sure, 2008 was a down year for Peavy because of an elbow injury. But what makes anyone think an elbow injury is a good sign that Peavy’s 2009 season is going to be better? Is that what you look for in pitchers? No, me either. Now I think all of this will be moot because the Padres want back waaaay too much. (That’s right, four A’s on that way. Watch out!) I’ve read they want from the Braves Jurrjens, Yunel and the hot pitching prospect, Tommy Hanson. Mmmbop… That ain’t happening. Then the Chicago Tribune is talking about a trade of Adrian Gonzalez and Peavy for Derrek Lee, Sean Marshall and Felix Pie. This trade doesn’t even sound that great for the Padres. They want Lee and Pie? Don’t they already have a lack of power?  In the end, I think Peavy stays with the Padres and in Petco. For your fantasy baseball team, you should hope so.

With the offseason upon us, and Larry King done congratulating the Phillies, it’s time we look at offseason moves. The peasant Royals didn’t waste long at all to get the trading under way. They acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins for Leo Nunez. The Royals are real movers and shakers now! With Shealy, Butler, Ross Gload and Kila Ka’aihue, the Royals desperately needed an all-power, low-average DH/1st baseman. They must be happy to cross that off their Christmas list. Finally they fill the void that Steve Balboni left twenty some-odd years ago. Going the other way in the trade, the Marlins get a very solid bullpen arm in Leo Nunez. As you can tell from my tone (Aw, am I being harsh?), I think the Royals are boneheads, but this is not for me to decide. Let’s talk about this trade from a fantasy baseball perspective:

Mike Jacobs – The trade to the Royals will not help him hit better than .260. If anything, it might cause him to hit even worse. Now he’ll be facing pitchers that he hadn’t seen at all or only during interleague. I liked Jacobs last year for some late round power and that doesn’t change. Now he has a few more caveats (<–yo, that’s Latin!) attached to his name. He can be easily replaced by the foursome of DH/1st basemen and he’ll be facing unfamiliar pitching. 30 home runs is still his over/under. .250 is his ceiling.

Leo Nunez – The Marlins have to be the most fortunate franchises in the history of baseball. Everything they touch turns to gold and I wouldn’t be surprised if Nunez is just another example. He has some low minor closing experience, so they could possibly use him in that capacity (which is doubtful). He has starting experience so they could use him as a starter — also doubtful. He will more than likely be used as a middle man. He might not be drafted out of the gate in 2009, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives some fantasy teams a much needed middle reliever boost. Mr. Bs, are you listening?