Fantasy Baseball Advice

A non-stop flurry of nothing came out of Las Vegas as the Winter Meetings came to a close, as the gold nuggets ended up being turd nuggets.  Not that this deal was a real whopper, but Melky and Mike Cameron wasn’t finalized so I’m not going to go into that yet. Felipe Lopez, Matt Joyce and Edwin Jackson found new homes, so I’ll cover them. Yay, we get to hear about three schmohawks! Oh shut up, random italicized voice. Yes, these three guys aren’t quite as riveting as Teixeira landing somewhere, but that will have to wait for another day. Anyway, here’s some smaller deals that went down on the final day of the Winter Meetings and how they’ll effect fantasy baseball:

Felipe Lopez – Not even a blip on the radar when the Diamondbacks signed Felipe Lopez to a deal, but this could be a huge addition to some 2009 NL-Only and deeper mixed leagues. Felipe Lopez went 35/4/24/.360/4 in only 189 at-bats after the All-Star break last year. Sure, multiplying stats by three is about as indicative as a cute girl with a twitch winking at you, but Lopez is capable of those stats. He’s only going to be 29 for the 2009 season and could go 20/20/.260 in a full season. Can any of youse say 2009 fantasy sleeper? I knew you could.

Matt Joyce – Matt Joyce went to the Rays for Edwin Jackson. At worst, Matt Joyce figures to be the strong side of the right field platoon for the Rays. In AL-Only leagues, he could be a great endgame bargain being able to hit 15-20 home runs and chuck in some steals, though he will be a liability on average. In most mixed leagues, I’d let him pass, unless he’s showing some serious signs in spring training.

Edwin Jackson – Edwin Jackson went to the Tigers so he could try to finally fulfill that top prospect label he picked up seventeen eons ago in Los Angeles. I haven’t given up on Jackson yet, but it would be nice if he started striking out some hitters again while keeping his walks down. In AL-Only leagues, Edwin’s a good late round flier who you shouldn’t mind dropping fairly quickly. The biggest ancillary (<–Word of the Day and I’m not sure I’m using it correctly, but whatever helps you people sorta learn) effect of this trade is David Price has a rotation spot. Lates, Edwin.

Yes, sometimes I try and make the titles double entrendres just so we get traffic from really bizarre places. Now if I were to mention the Mets are now throwing a Rod and a Putz, our traffic would skew even further. Now if I were to continue to say things like I think the Mets should hire Dick Pole to be their pitching coach, or that Mike Piazza probably wishes he were still catching for the Mets or how I own posters of Antonio Sabato Jr…. Well, you get the idea. Then they read on to find out I’m talking about 2009 fantasy baseball, Kerry Wood and J.J. Putz. Bummer, doodes! Hopefully, we can convert some of our new readers though. I hate to tease Wood and Putz then send people away, um, empty-handed. So with the signing of Kerry Wood in Cleveland and the huge trade of J.J. Putz, we need to look at how this impacts them for 2009 fantasy baseball, don’t we? (It’s rhetorical.)

Kerry Wood – In my offseason look at 2009 fantasy closers, I labelled Kerry Wood a Donkey-corn. That hasn’t changed with him signing a deal with the Indians. There I placed him 20th on the 2009 closer list. Now, I’d move him up to about 15th. He was lower more or less because of his uncertainty about where he would sign.  Now that he landed somewhere that needs a closer like an old man needs soup.  Wood, we’re good.

J.J. Putz – We’re not as good. Um, dooode just lost all his value in one full swoop. Oh well, I doubt any of youse have drafted yet, so it’s better to know now then lose him midseason.  I’d own Putz in NL-Only leagues that utilize middle relievers and, really, all NL-Only leagues should utilize middle relievers. As Houdini once may have said, “This Putz makes a good handcuff.”

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu! Holy schnikeys, he reemerges with fantasy value!  Anyone who has read this site for an extended time knows I have it a bit for The Big FraGu. He lands in Seattle after this three-way trade. This could be exactly what he needs to make him fantasy relevant in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. Now he’s absolutely draftable in AL-Only leagues. In fact, I’d go as far as to call him a 2009 fantasy sleeper. He could go 20/15 and be a tremendous asset in deep leagues. Can you tell I’m really psyched about The Big FraGu? Yeah, I don’t hide my enthusiasm very well.

Brandon Morrow/Aaron Heilman – This trade just gets more and more spectacular from a 2009 fantasy veiwpoint. Towards the end of last season, Morrow was stretched out so he could be a starter. So, of course in 2009, he becomes a closer.  There’s some speculation that Heilman could be the closer and Morrow the starter, but I think that’s foolish for the Mariners to do. Then again, the Mariners have been foolish before. I think the smart move is to make Heilman happy and make him a starter like he so desperately wants.  While Morrow will realize he can get big bucks by being a closer even if it’s not as challenging (and, yes, I am saying it’s easier to be a closer than a starter). Morrow has succeeded before in the closing role while Heilman has failed in that role. This is really a no-brainer. Anyone who disagrees, have ‘em come talk to me.  I’d call Morrow a Donkey-corn and place him about 17th on the list of 2009 fantasy closers.

On Tuesday, Brian Cashman, the Yankees GM, flew to California to speak with CC Sabathia about him signing with the Yankees. The conversation went like this:

“I wanna play on the West Coast.”

“We can have In N Out Burger shipped to the East Coast.”

“Same day?”

“Don’t get greedy.”

CC opens up the book he’s been reading, How to Serve the Rally Monkey.

“Fine, next day.”

“CC’s a Yank!”

Anyway, let’s take a look at what the CC Sabathia signing means for fantasy baseball:

CC Sabathia – You know what movie is playing when CC enters a candy store? Mars Attacks! All right, enough fat jokes. Sabathia won a Cy Young in the AL. He’s suddenly going to lose it? Family ties were driving his desire to be in California, but CC had to choose — for love or money? He chose the $160 million and now he’s not going to be Doc Hollywood. The brights lights, big city won’t bother him. He won’t be blinded by the light of day. Sure, it’s the media jungle, the ultimate spin city, if you will. But he knows the secret of his succe$s and playing for the Yankees won’t be the hard way to find out he’s nothing but a Stuart Little. Don’t be the frighteners about drafting him in 2009. Life with Melky will be just fine. (The preceding was a Michael J. Fox Hidden Movie Find ‘Em brought to be the makers of Highlights Magazine™ and Molsen Ice.  How many movies can you find?)

K-Rod wasn’t the top closer according to our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and he’s not the number one closer according to our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections — it’s called Point Shares, ya’ll! The title of top closer goes to Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon, respectively. And I respectively agree. As Madonna tries to figure out if the K stands for Kabbalah and if she’s with the right Rod, let’s see what this signing does for K-Rod’s 2009 fantasy value and others:

Francisco Rodriguez – When I did my look at offseason 2009 closers, I placed Nathan, Papelbon, Lidge and Mo-Ri in front of K-Rod. Nothing change. I said K-Rod was going to be the closer for the Mets back in August. Everyone said he was going to be the Mets closer back in August. (I think I was one day before everyone else, but who’s counting — besides me.) Francisco Rodriguez is still a $12 Salad and, if anything, he’s even more overrated now by people who think a closer in New York is more valuable simply because of geography.

Scot Shields – No one seems to think he’s going to be the 2009 closer of the Angels, but if Scioscia goes with his longtime setup man first it wouldn’t surprise me that much.

Jose Arrendondo – In that same Closer Look post, Arredondo was ranked 17th, since he’s obviously a Donkey-corn. If he goes into the season as the clear cut closer of the Angels then put another band-aid on your cheek Nelly cause Arrendondo’s about to grimey in overratedness.

Can you feel the fantasy repercussions of the Ramon Hernandez trade?  Yeah, a tremor. Thanks, random italicized voice.  No, don’t you see, this has so little to do with Ramon Hernandez being traded. It does? Yes! It has everything to do with Matt Wieters now having an opportunity to start the 2009 season in Baltimore. Okay, let’s breakdown what the Ramon Hernandez trade means for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Wieters – With Ramon Hernandez gone from Baltimore, the catching job is Wieters’s to lose. In my ongoing rookie outlook series, I went over what I thought a 2009 Matt Wieters would look like. Here’s the crux, “In 2008, Geovany Soto went 66/23/86/.285. While those are great numbers for a rookie and incredible numbers for a rookie catcher, they are still only 66/23/86/.285. Those numbers only placed him 91st on our player rater while ranking 5th on the top 20 catchers for 2008 list.” And that’s me quoting and linking to my crux! My point there was that in the end, Wieters is still a catcher. What’s the most we can expect? 20 home runs? A .300 average? Yeah, that’s the ceiling on Wieters. And those are really good numbers for a rookie catcher. But they’re still 20 home runs and a .300 average or as I like to call them, Ty Wigginton’s 2008 numbers. My recommendation is to let someone else take the risk, unless Wieters comes cheap on draft day.  Think end of the draft for 10-team mixed leagues. He should be pursued more aggressively in keeper leagues.  On my top 20 catchers for 2009 post (which will be published in January with the other top 20 position lists), I’m debating whether to slot him in at 12 or 14.

Ramon Hernandez – Camden to Great American is a push. Seeing some new pitching in the NL might affect him slightly… Oh, who are we kidding? You read this for Wieters and stopped by this point. Ramon Hernandez should be drafted in NL-Only leagues and some deeper mixed ones with the hope he bounces back to pre-’07 levels. Though I have my doubts about whether those levels are still possible.  Expect 15 to 17 home runs and a .260 average.

Ryan Freel – He’s a utility player with speed. Without speed, he’s a futility player.