Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley, the new members of the Rays and Cubs respectively, are in similar tiers as outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, that not-so-coveted thirdish/fourth-kinda outfielder spot.  With their signings, it solidifies in everyone’s mind where Milton Bradley will throw a tantrum next year and where Burrell will be seen going from home to 1st in 12.7 seconds.  Is that a Clydesdale, Pa? Anyway, let’s look at what these free agent signings mean for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Pat Burrell – The Rays signed Pat Burrell, which should rid the Tampa landscape of the Gomes/Floyd blahtoon at DH.  That’s right, Burrell’s fielding has him on the fast track for DH duties.  So sad.  I would’ve liked to see Upton and Crawford play the outfield and Burrell play a ten foot swatch of outfield grass.  “Ooh, Burrell just missed snagging that one.  It was almost twelve feet away from where he was positioned.”  I imagine Crawford in LF would’ve had a better shot at some balls hit to right.  Oh, well.  As for Burrell for 2009 fantasy baseball, he’ll still have OF eligibility and then he’ll have multiple position eligibility when he gets that coveted Utility eligibility.  Sweet!  He hits 29 to 33 HRs every year and I don’t think 2009 will be any different.  I could actually see him thriving as a DH — Oy, who wants to field when you’re lousy at it? — I’d draft Burrell as a third to fourth outfielder for 2009.

Milton Bradley – The Cubs signed Milton Bradley — filling the hole in their lineup left by Fukudome’s bat and the hole in their ‘likely DL candidate’ position vacated by Kerry Wood.  Milton Bradley is known to somewhat feud with his managers, but Pinella is a much mellower presence than the irascible Bud “Kneebreaker” Black.  They don’t call him Sweet Lou for nothing.  I think it’s fair to say in 2008, Milton Bradley had a career year, i.e., he put it all together.  Slugging, health, peaceful resolutions to disagreements (though he did try to bash in a Royals announcer’s face — Milton Bradley ain’t your dummy, dummy!) and he played in a ballpark conducive to a career year.  In this career year, he still only hit 22 HRs and just under 80 Runs and 80 RBIs.  For the amount of Tagamet you need to drink to have him on your team, is that really worth it?  Take two and pass.

Brian Fuentes heads to the Angels, confirming some suspicions I had. The guy at Subway spit into your tuna? No, those weren’t suspicions, that was *spooky voice* paranoia.  While so many fantasy baseball ‘perts were appointing Arrendondo the closer of the Angels right after the K-Rod departure, I had my suspicions it was a bit premature.  Why couldn’t Scot Shields take over as the closer, I thought?  (Yes, when I think I do it in a Yoda-syntax. Deal with it!)  Just because Arrendondo was better didn’t mean he was going to be the closer.  Borowski and Todd Jones were the closers for too long when they weren’t the best men for the job.  Well, the Angels acquisition of Brian Fuentes made all of this moot.  (Sometimes I’m as bad as a Developmentally-Challenged Sandinista.)  Let’s look at Brian Fuentes for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Brian Fuentes – Becomes the closer in The Town that Bobby Grich Built as of right now.  Lest we forget, Fuentes is the same schmohawk that couldn’t hold off Manny Corpas, someone who then couldn’t keep the closing job.   Fuentes should be fine in SoCal, but Scioscia has no allegiance to Fuentes and he’s the type of manager that could let a $10 million/year guy pitch setup.   I think they call it ornery.

Jose Arrendondo – Arrendondo was the fourth best rookie pitcher in 2008. But with no closing job he has no value, right? (Not rhetorical, but it is a trick question.)  For anyone who has read this site for a while knows I’m a big time Mr. B.  So Arrendondo has value for me, even if I thought he’d be pitching the eighth inning only. If anything, fantasy owners should be rejoicing (Rejoice, ya’ll! We’re almost out of the naughts!). Now no one will want Arrendondo because they’ll think he has no value.  You know better, don’t you? (That’s a rhetorical.  Try to follow along.)

Next up, Mark DeRosa heads over to the Indians with his up and down staircase capitalization. (What is the deal with this up and down last name capitalization? Who started this? Can anyone do this? Can I just start writing Grey AlBright?) When I first heard about DeRosa going to the Indians, I yawned. Then I scratched my head. Then I wrote this:

Mark DeRosa – I’m glad he’s on the Indians now. I think people will see him out of Wrigley and a Cubs uniform and no longer overrate a player that was underrated. Let me explain, because I partially confused myself with that last sentence.  Going into 2008, Mark of the Roses was underrated and very useful.   Then in the winter, someone somewhere noticed that DeRosa had a good 2008 and he suddenly started getting hyped up.   Now that he’s moved to the Indians, people won’t know exactly what to think of him anymore and he’ll no longer be overrated.  He’ll simply be written off as a guy who had one good season.  Excellent, because it was a career year at 34.  Let’s be real, he’s not the second coming.  He’s barely a top ten 2nd baseman.  Think 15/65/.280. Speaking of 2nd base…

Asdrubal Cabrera/Jhonny Peralta – The Indians should have an Asdrubal Night where proctologists get in for half off. With the addition of DeRosa, Asdrubal will move to shortstop and Peralta will move to 3rd. This seemed to be happening anyway, as Peralta has been getting used to the hot corner in the winter leagues even before the trade, as I mentioned in the post on multiple position eligibility.

Aaron Miles/Mike Fontenot – Fontenot…. Theriot…. They sound like they’re going to be a defensive pairing on the Blackhawks.  Or a cheese pairing with Merlot.  Miles and Fontenot will split time at 2nd base.  Miles will cover the weak side of the blahtoon.  Mike Fontenot seems like a decent endgame bargain.  Since we’re talking about 2nd base or MI, I’d even call him a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Maybe Arod and Mark Teixeira can double date with Madonna and Sheryl Crow.  Latino Blanco Twin powers activate — form of a mild salsa!  Form of a Tequiza tequila-flavored beer!  Form of a Chardonnay Sangria!  The Yanks sign Teixeira, figuring it would be easier than letting him sign with the Nationals and then buying the entire team. Everyone who has Teixeira in their 2009 fantasy keeper leagues just let out a huge sigh of relief.  Thank God, he’s not going to the Nats.  (Speaking of which, isn’t it weird that the Expos were baseball Siberia in Montreal and they move to Washington and they’re still a baseball Siberia?  If you moved the Nationals to Anywhere, U.S.A, which also happened to be a hot bed for diehard baseball fans, suddenly no one would be interested.  Guaranteed.)  So, of course, the Yankees grabbed Teixeira.  They only spent 6 kagillion dollars so far this winter.  Way under the 10 kagillion The Boss gave Hankenstein to spend.  Maybe they can lure Manny to the Bronx with the extra 2 kagillion.  So what does this mean for Teixeira for fantasy baseball in 2009?

Tuh-SHARE-uh is a lock for 100/35/110/.300.  Whereever he is playing.  In the middle of the Yankees lineup, he’s good for the ceiling on his 2009 projections.  Think 110 RUNS and 125 RBIs.  It will be interesting to see what the New York media thinks of PABST (Post-All-star Break Stats Teixeira) when he gets off to his usual slow start.  But, without fail, Teix always comes around to producing good numbers even if they have to wait until July.  He was already going in the beginning of the 2nd round in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and this should just solidify his place there.  I could see Mark Teixeira going anywhere from 7th to 15th overall.

Rafael Furcal returns to the Braves, which can’t be a good thing for 2009 fantasy baseball owners. I mean, it can, but it probably won’t be. This move will have people slightly too excited about Furcal.  Then you throw in his great April in 2008 — hitting .357 with 5 home runs and 8 steals in only 36 games.  Again, this could lead to unrealistic expectations.  36 games does not a season make.  Don’t think Furcal has a .350+ average in his tuba case.  He doesn’t.  Last year, Furcal had a BABIP of .380 in April.  A number that would’ve came down if he played the rest of the season, leading Furcal to be the .285 hitter he is. Hey, a 15/35, .285 hitter is nothing to sneeze at. Oh, yeah? Well, atchoo! No, that wasn’t Casey Kotchman with mono. Furcal is now 31 and hasn’t had a productive season in three seasons.  Maybe he can rebound like Yao Ming, but Furcal’s now coming off back surgery.  Does that still sound promising to you?  It shouldn’t.  If Furcal drops in your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, then, by all means, pounce like Davey Boy Smith, but I don’t want any part of Furcal before the tenth shortstop off the draft board. Unless, and once again for the hyperopic, UNLESS Furcal moves to second base.  Which brings us to…

Yunel Escobar/Kelly Johnson – Um, wasn’t Yunel going to play short?  Okay, so either a trade is going to happen — which Peavy, his family and his goumadas will welcome already — or Kelly Johnson will go to the outfield, Yunel to short and Furcal to 2nd base or Furcal stays at short and Yunel and Kelly Johnson split time at 2nd.  If Yunel doesn’t get out of Turner South and the last option comes to fruition, this could really hurt Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson’s 2009 fantasy value. Stay tuned!*

*This post was brought to you by TBS and Frank TV.

UPDATE: Turns out that airline ticket was nonrefundable and this post was brought to by KTLA.  I still think Furcal is nothing more than the tenth shortstop off the board.  What I said about him above doesn’t change. That’s what I see for Rafael Furcal in 2009.   Thankfully, this doesn’t effect Yunel and Johnson like I feared.

There’s only two types of years for AJ Burnett.  He’s either playing hard because it’s a contract year or he’s hardly playing because he contracted an injury.  Unless the Yanks are willing to give him a new contract every year to add to this one (which is definitely possible with the Yank$), our guess is that this will be a lot closer to a Pavano redux than a Mussina repeat.  For now, Burnett becomes the Yankees number two pitcher, though Wang might have a thang to say about that. Or maybe Joba will be considered the number two by the end of 2009.  So what say I about Burnett for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.