So Dunn is very predictable, but something here is less predictable.  Elijah Dukes after a box of wine?  Yes, but more importantly where is Dunn going to play.  Jim Bowden collects five-tool outfielders like Roberto Alomar rips condoms, so he has his outfield full with Bowden Fluffers and the no-tool outfielder, Josh Willingham.  So Dunn takes his blue ox over to 1st base and gives Nick Johnson his walking papers.  Unfortunately, Nick Johnson probably can’t walk because he’s injured.  This was Nick Johnson before the Adam Dunn signing — this is him after.

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.

Felix Pie – Pee-ay should have the inside track on the left field job going into and coming out of spring training.  Suddenly, Pie is fantasy relevant.  What’s to like about him?  Well, the weird guy in the overalls at The Home Depot is not the only one who’s toolsy.  Pie is a speed and power combo guy.  He’s just not quite that powerful or that, um, speedful.  Torii Hunter could take Pie in an arm wrestling match.  Pie’s on the Bowden Fluffer JV Team with guys like Coco Crisp and Adam Jones.   Pie’s upside is Randy Winn.

Joey Gathright – Except in very deep mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, Gathright’s not really someone to draft, but you should keep an eye on him.  First sign of a Milton Bradley having a pulled hammy/bout with his inner demons, I’d grab Gathright for some cheap steals.  SAGNOF, boyz (and one possible girl reader).

Derek Lowe -  Lowe leaves the ideal NL West (Dodger, Petco, and AT&T Park plus those inept offenses) for the more offense-minded NL East.  He posted four straight sub-4.000 ERAs for the Dodgers and seven straight years near 200 innings.  His sinker still works — 60% GB% is about as good as anyone other than Brandon Webb.  The move to the NL East will likely move his numbers up a bit but this is much better for his value than a return to the AL. Inch up the CHONE projections to about 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  He’s exactly the kind of pitcher you want as your number four starter.  You know what you’re going to get and he balances the upside picks (Cueto) and the injury picks (Burnett) nicely.  Just don’t do like the Braves and overpay for him.

Kenshin Kawakami - My first reaction to this signing was he sounded more like Hideki Irabu than Dice-K.  So if you were to Blink like Gladwell, you’d stay away and not have to read on.  East Windup Chronicle, which tells me everything I ever need to know about Japanese players, breaks Kawakami down.  My translation of their translation is for you to expect Kuroda, but in a less favorable division and park.  The sheer unknown of Kawakami is intriguing enough for me to take a flier on him in NL-Only leagues and deep mixed ones.  Another more shallow and you’ll crack open your skull.

Trevor Hoffman -  Somewhere in dairy country a little boy is asking his grandpa why he’s so excited.  “Cause we’re going to be able to hear a whole lotta Hell’s Bells.”  Carrying on the tradition he may have learned firsthand at The Spanish Inquisition, Hoffman did well converting opportunities in 2008.  He went 30 for 34 in save chances and put up 3.77/1.04 ratios.  Miraculously, he also posted more than a K/IP and only nine walks all season.  Frankly, it was a better season than you deserved when you were all ready to drop his remembering-the-eighteen-eighties ass in April.  The one big question mark besides his age is the home runs allowed.  He gave up eight home runs in 45.1 IP with seven of those coming in Petco.  Betcha he’s glad to be out of there!  In the end, SAGNOF.  If Hoffman’s getting the saves, then Hoffman is the one to own.  I’d rank him at the bottom of the Donkey-corn tier of closers.

John Smoltz – Smoltz is on the DL until early June recovering from shoulder surgery.  Sure, he’s The Ultimate Warrior taking on evil Hulk, but let’s be real for a moment.  Doode’s about to be 42 years-old.  The Sox gave him a five million dollar deal.  This is the same as you leaving a 12% tip at your local Ham ‘N Eggery.  Not to mention, the Red Sox have about a seven man starting staff as of right now.  (BTW, this really shows the inequality between clubs.  The Sox have a number seven man (Buchholz) that could be a number three man on another club.  Meanwhile, the Nats big offseason acquistion was Daniel Cabrera.)  If you have room on your DL for Smoltz, take a flier in the end rounds, but don’t expect too much.  The Sox are stacked to the point where they could hold Smoltz back until the All-Star Break and then baby him just for the playoffs.  I’d put his 2009 projections at 5-2/3.00/1.16 in 12 starts.

Pat Burrell – The Rays signed Pat Burrell, which should rid the Tampa landscape of the Gomes/Floyd blahtoon at DH.  That’s right, Burrell’s fielding has him on the fast track for DH duties.  So sad.  I would’ve liked to see Upton and Crawford play the outfield and Burrell play a ten foot swatch of outfield grass.  “Ooh, Burrell just missed snagging that one.  It was almost twelve feet away from where he was positioned.”  I imagine Crawford in LF would’ve had a better shot at some balls hit to right.  Oh, well.  As for Burrell for 2009 fantasy baseball, he’ll still have OF eligibility and then he’ll have multiple position eligibility when he gets that coveted Utility eligibility.  Sweet!  He hits 29 to 33 HRs every year and I don’t think 2009 will be any different.  I could actually see him thriving as a DH — Oy, who wants to field when you’re lousy at it? — I’d draft Burrell as a third to fourth outfielder for 2009.

Milton Bradley – The Cubs signed Milton Bradley — filling the hole in their lineup left by Fukudome’s bat and the hole in their ‘likely DL candidate’ position vacated by Kerry Wood.  Milton Bradley is known to somewhat feud with his managers, but Pinella is a much mellower presence than the irascible Bud “Kneebreaker” Black.  They don’t call him Sweet Lou for nothing.  I think it’s fair to say in 2008, Milton Bradley had a career year, i.e., he put it all together.  Slugging, health, peaceful resolutions to disagreements (though he did try to bash in a Royals announcer’s face — Milton Bradley ain’t your dummy, dummy!) and he played in a ballpark conducive to a career year.  In this career year, he still only hit 22 HRs and just under 80 Runs and 80 RBIs.  For the amount of Tagamet you need to drink to have him on your team, is that really worth it?  Take two and pass.

Brian Fuentes – Becomes the closer in The Town that Bobby Grich Built as of right now.  Lest we forget, Fuentes is the same schmohawk that couldn’t hold off Manny Corpas, someone who then couldn’t keep the closing job.   Fuentes should be fine in SoCal, but Scioscia has no allegiance to Fuentes and he’s the type of manager that could let a $10 million/year guy pitch setup.   I think they call it ornery.

Jose Arrendondo – Arrendondo was the fourth best rookie pitcher in 2008. But with no closing job he has no value, right? (Not rhetorical, but it is a trick question.)  For anyone who has read this site for a while knows I’m a big time Mr. B.  So Arrendondo has value for me, even if I thought he’d be pitching the eighth inning only. If anything, fantasy owners should be rejoicing (Rejoice, ya’ll! We’re almost out of the naughts!). Now no one will want Arrendondo because they’ll think he has no value.  You know better, don’t you? (That’s a rhetorical.  Try to follow along.)

Next up, Mark DeRosa heads over to the Indians with his up and down staircase capitalization. (What is the deal with this up and down last name capitalization? Who started this? Can anyone do this? Can I just start writing Grey AlBright?) When I first heard about DeRosa going to the Indians, I yawned. Then I scratched my head. Then I wrote this:

Mark DeRosa – I’m glad he’s on the Indians now. I think people will see him out of Wrigley and a Cubs uniform and no longer overrate a player that was underrated. Let me explain, because I partially confused myself with that last sentence.  Going into 2008, Mark of the Roses was underrated and very useful.   Then in the winter, someone somewhere noticed that DeRosa had a good 2008 and he suddenly started getting hyped up.   Now that he’s moved to the Indians, people won’t know exactly what to think of him anymore and he’ll no longer be overrated.  He’ll simply be written off as a guy who had one good season.  Excellent, because it was a career year at 34.  Let’s be real, he’s not the second coming.  He’s barely a top ten 2nd baseman.  Think 15/65/.280. Speaking of 2nd base…

Asdrubal Cabrera/Jhonny Peralta – The Indians should have an Asdrubal Night where proctologists get in for half off. With the addition of DeRosa, Asdrubal will move to shortstop and Peralta will move to 3rd. This seemed to be happening anyway, as Peralta has been getting used to the hot corner in the winter leagues even before the trade, as I mentioned in the post on multiple position eligibility.

Aaron Miles/Mike Fontenot – Fontenot…. Theriot…. They sound like they’re going to be a defensive pairing on the Blackhawks.  Or a cheese pairing with Merlot.  Miles and Fontenot will split time at 2nd base.  Miles will cover the weak side of the blahtoon.  Mike Fontenot seems like a decent endgame bargain.  Since we’re talking about 2nd base or MI, I’d even call him a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Tuh-SHARE-uh is a lock for 100/35/110/.300.  Whereever he is playing.  In the middle of the Yankees lineup, he’s good for the ceiling on his 2009 projections.  Think 110 RUNS and 125 RBIs.  It will be interesting to see what the New York media thinks of PABST (Post-All-star Break Stats Teixeira) when he gets off to his usual slow start.  But, without fail, Teix always comes around to producing good numbers even if they have to wait until July.  He was already going in the beginning of the 2nd round in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts and this should just solidify his place there.  I could see Mark Teixeira going anywhere from 7th to 15th overall.

Yunel Escobar/Kelly Johnson – Um, wasn’t Yunel going to play short?  Okay, so either a trade is going to happen — which Peavy, his family and his goumadas will welcome already — or Kelly Johnson will go to the outfield, Yunel to short and Furcal to 2nd base or Furcal stays at short and Yunel and Kelly Johnson split time at 2nd.  If Yunel doesn’t get out of Turner South and the last option comes to fruition, this could really hurt Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson’s 2009 fantasy value. Stay tuned!*

*This post was brought to you by TBS and Frank TV.

UPDATE: Turns out that airline ticket was nonrefundable and this post was brought to by KTLA.  I still think Furcal is nothing more than the tenth shortstop off the board.  What I said about him above doesn’t change. That’s what I see for Rafael Furcal in 2009.   Thankfully, this doesn’t effect Yunel and Johnson like I feared.

Burnett’s fairly unpredictable and now that he has a contract it’s almost guaranteed that he’s not going to be as productive in 2009 as he was 2008.  He’ll probably go in 2009 fantasy drafts sometime in the second fantasy pitching tier (think Dice-K, Haren, Shields), though he’s more likely to give you value of the third or fourth tier with all his injuries, i.e. Burnett’s overrated. But, and this is J. Lo-sized but, if he can make it through 2009 healthy, Burnett could give you 18 to 20 wins, a mid-3 ERA and 200+ Ks. In 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, this is the kind of guy I would grab if my pitching were already stacked. Let me explain, you’re in a keeper league and you already have Johan and Halladay. Here, you grab Burnett because if he flames out in 2009 — no big whoop, you’re already set with a solid one and two starter.  In all other cases where AJ’s drafted like he probably will be in 2009, I’d let someone else take a chance on The AJ Burnett Variety of Injuries Show.