Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Nats hope that Adam Dunn can teach youngsters like Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge the patience not to swing at every pitch or innocent bystander.  Dunn will pick his teeth with the Washington Monument and quench his thirst with its reflecting pool.  Adam Dunn is not going to lose any fantasy value in Washington with the Nationals.  Adam Dunn could play in Petco and hit 40 home runs and strikeout 160 times.  Okay, he may hit 40 home runs and only drive in 50 RBIs.  I keed.  In the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, I put Adam Dunn’s projections at 80/40/85/.245/5.  Those still seem about right.  Adam Dunn is predictable and for that, we like him.  The average is a drain.  But, again, you know that going in.  Unlike the Diamondbacks last year, you don’t want to put Dunn on a team with Krispie Young.

So Dunn is very predictable, but something here is less predictable.  Elijah Dukes after a box of wine?  Yes, but more importantly where is Dunn going to play.  Jim Bowden collects five-tool outfielders like Roberto Alomar rips condoms, so he has his outfield full with Bowden Fluffers and the no-tool outfielder, Josh Willingham.  So Dunn takes his blue ox over to 1st base and gives Nick Johnson his walking papers.  Unfortunately, Nick Johnson probably can’t walk because he’s injured.  This was Nick Johnson before the Adam Dunn signing — this is him after.

That’s a Fantasy Baseball Look at the signings or trades of Randy Wolf, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Heilman, Rich Hill, Andruw Jones and Ty Wiggington.  And, yes, I couldn’t resist the palindrome.  I’m real late to the discussion on some of these.  Not because I didn’t hear about them, but I just didn’t feel like they warranted immediate attention.  So here’s a fantasy baseball breakdown for these offseason signings and trades:

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.

The Cubs just got a hundred and twelve pounds lighter as Felix Pie heads to the Orioles for some dudes that you don’t need to concern yourself with right now.  Either the Cubs got fed up waiting around for Pie or they think he’s nothing more than Corey Patterson, another player the Cubs dumped on the Orioles.  Jim Bowden and the Nationals might not be the only team where teams can unload their failed 5-tool projects (aka “The Tool Shed”).  Hopefully, Delmon Young doesn’t end up in Washington or Baltimore in the next 2 years.  Anyway, let’s look at the 2009 fantasy baseball implications for the Felix Pie trade:

Felix Pie – Pee-ay should have the inside track on the left field job going into and coming out of spring training.  Suddenly, Pie is fantasy relevant.  What’s to like about him?  Well, the weird guy in the overalls at The Home Depot is not the only one who’s toolsy.  Pie is a speed and power combo guy.  He’s just not quite that powerful or that, um, speedful.  Torii Hunter could take Pie in an arm wrestling match.  Pie’s on the Bowden Fluffer JV Team with guys like Coco Crisp and Adam Jones.   Pie’s upside is Randy Winn.

Joey Gathright – Except in very deep mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, Gathright’s not really someone to draft, but you should keep an eye on him.  First sign of a Milton Bradley having a pulled hammy/bout with his inner demons, I’d grab Gathright for some cheap steals.  SAGNOF, boyz (and one possible girl reader).

Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami sign with the Atlanta Braves after they had already signed Javier Vazquez.  Now all the Braves need is a #1 pitcher and they have a great staff.  I guess the Braves decided if they weren’t going to sign a big name pitcher, they’d try their best to make Vazquez look better.  It was one way to go.  Jar-Jar Jurrjens had this to say, “Yousa signing is otay.” George Lucas wasn’t available to translate.  Anyway, what do these two signings mean for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Derek Lowe -  Lowe leaves the ideal NL West (Dodger, Petco, and AT&T Park plus those inept offenses) for the more offense-minded NL East.  He posted four straight sub-4.000 ERAs for the Dodgers and seven straight years near 200 innings.  His sinker still works — 60% GB% is about as good as anyone other than Brandon Webb.  The move to the NL East will likely move his numbers up a bit but this is much better for his value than a return to the AL. Inch up the CHONE projections to about 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  He’s exactly the kind of pitcher you want as your number four starter.  You know what you’re going to get and he balances the upside picks (Cueto) and the injury picks (Burnett) nicely.  Just don’t do like the Braves and overpay for him.

Kenshin Kawakami - My first reaction to this signing was he sounded more like Hideki Irabu than Dice-K.  So if you were to Blink like Gladwell, you’d stay away and not have to read on.  East Windup Chronicle, which tells me everything I ever need to know about Japanese players, breaks Kawakami down.  My translation of their translation is for you to expect Kuroda, but in a less favorable division and park.  The sheer unknown of Kawakami is intriguing enough for me to take a flier on him in NL-Only leagues and deep mixed ones.  Another more shallow and you’ll crack open your skull.

Remember Wade Boggs as a Devil Ray?  Brett Favre as a Jet?  Sylvester Stallone in the latest Rocky movie?  Today, Trevor Hoffman signed with the Milwaukee Brewers and John Smoltz signed on with the Red Sox.  Maybe Trevor Hoffman just wanted to follow in Salomon Torres’s footsteps and retire a Brewer.  Meanwhile, Smoltz returns to Boston after only spending one year with the then Boston Braves.  John Smoltz’s favorite contemporary artist, Mitzi Gaynor, once sang, “Everything old is new again.” No truer words have been spoken, except maybe, “Old pitchers break down.” — Anonymous.  Anyway, here’s a look at what Hoffman and Smoltz will mean for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Trevor Hoffman -  Somewhere in dairy country a little boy is asking his grandpa why he’s so excited.  “Cause we’re going to be able to hear a whole lotta Hell’s Bells.”  Carrying on the tradition he may have learned firsthand at The Spanish Inquisition, Hoffman did well converting opportunities in 2008.  He went 30 for 34 in save chances and put up 3.77/1.04 ratios.  Miraculously, he also posted more than a K/IP and only nine walks all season.  Frankly, it was a better season than you deserved when you were all ready to drop his remembering-the-eighteen-eighties ass in April.  The one big question mark besides his age is the home runs allowed.  He gave up eight home runs in 45.1 IP with seven of those coming in Petco.  Betcha he’s glad to be out of there!  In the end, SAGNOF.  If Hoffman’s getting the saves, then Hoffman is the one to own.  I’d rank him at the bottom of the Donkey-corn tier of closers.

John Smoltz – Smoltz is on the DL until early June recovering from shoulder surgery.  Sure, he’s The Ultimate Warrior taking on evil Hulk, but let’s be real for a moment.  Doode’s about to be 42 years-old.  The Sox gave him a five million dollar deal.  This is the same as you leaving a 12% tip at your local Ham ‘N Eggery.  Not to mention, the Red Sox have about a seven man starting staff as of right now.  (BTW, this really shows the inequality between clubs.  The Sox have a number seven man (Buchholz) that could be a number three man on another club.  Meanwhile, the Nats big offseason acquistion was Daniel Cabrera.)  If you have room on your DL for Smoltz, take a flier in the end rounds, but don’t expect too much.  The Sox are stacked to the point where they could hold Smoltz back until the All-Star Break and then baby him just for the playoffs.  I’d put his 2009 projections at 5-2/3.00/1.16 in 12 starts.