Just kidding.  They haven’t made a decision that ill-informed since, um, electing Jim Rice and Andre Dawson.  But I’m going to pretend we have a vote this year and explain the decisions on our ballot.

Here is some background on how I analyze players for the HOF:

Much like the Earth and many a good joke, the views on Hall of Fame worthiness have two poles.  The first pole is the traditional view which focuses on seasonal and career ‘baseball card’ stats like AVG/Hits/HR/RBI or Wins/ERA, factors in dominance based on MVP/Cy Young voting + reputation during one’s career, and the post-season success for that individual and their team(s).    The second pole is the sabermetric view which relies on more advanced statistics with the aim of crediting the best players based on objective criteria.

I am much, much closer to the sabermetric pole than the traditionalist pole.  My view on baseball (and life) is to question and adapt my views when presented with compelling information.  I’ve been convinced that OBP & Times on Base are superior to AVG and Hits and that the traditional view of baseball has underestimated the value of walks.  I can’t view HRs or even Slugging percentage as an absolute reflection of power and look for advanced stats to adjust for era and park factors.  Runs and RBIs are clearly important – you need to score runs to win games – but it’s hard to balance these stats against lineup strength, era, park factors, etc.  The same goes for pitching:  I think ERA/WHIP needs to be adjusted per era/park factors/team defense, Wins are a questionable measure given their reliance on team strength, etc.

As advanced statistics have improved, I put less faith in MVPs/Cy Youngs/All-Star voting.  The writers (and fans for All-Star) voting for those awards over the years didn’t either have access to the advanced learnings that sabermetrics has provided and/or don’t believe it.  For instance, let’s look at the 1996 MVP voting.  Juan Gonzalez had a fantastic hitting year (.314/47/144 with a .368 OBP, below average running/defense and favorable park that led him to not even make the AL Top 10 in OPS+) but exactly how could that be considered more valuable than Ken Griffey Jr. (.303/49/140 with a .392 OBP, solid baserunning, and the most valuable defensive player in the league based on Defensive WAR) or Alex Rodriguez (.358/36/123 with a .414 OBP, positive baserunning and above-average SS defense)?  In fact, of the 21 players to get at least one AL MVP vote in 1996, Juan Gonzalez had the worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  In addition, there are also some years where a player wins the MVP/Cy Young by default because there really isn’t a player who warrants it and vice versa (see 1996 where Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez – as well as Chuck Knoblauch – were worthy MVP candidates).  Does that make their year any less MVP-worthy?

So here are the criteria/stats I’m using for my HOF analysis:

1) Career Excellence - I am measuring this by career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  This statistic – which was developed by Sean Smith and is available for free on Baseball-Reference.com or Sean’s ownBaseballProjection.com – calculates the value of a hitter’s offense/defense/running or a pitcher’s pitching vs. those of a replacement player (minor leaguer or waiver wire claim).  Many factors such as position, era, park, defense (for pitchers) are accounted for.  (note:  there are slight differences in WAR calculations between Baseball-Reference and BaseballProjection.com – I use those from B-R unless otherwise noted.)

2) Peak Excellence - I think most traditional and sabermetric fans and voters agree that – everything equal – a player who had a dominant peak is more preferable to one who was just very good for a long period of time.  Rather than focus on awards, I’ve taken the B-R (and I assume Sean Smith) suggested breaks of 5.0+ WAR for an All-Star season and 8.0+ WAR for an MVP season.    For reference, between 1901 and 2010, there were 282 hitting seasons and 132 pitching seasons that surpassed 8.0.  That roughly 2.7 hitters and 1.2 pitchers per year which seems fair when you consider there are about 2x the hitters than pitchers who play enough to reach this total.

(Bit of trivia:  The year with the most 8.0+ WAR hitters is 2004 with 6:  Barry Bonds (12.4), Adrian ‘El Senator‘ Beltre (10.1), Albert Pujols (9.4), Scott Rolen (9.2), Jim Edmonds (8.4), and Ichiro (8.1).  The NL MVP vote went exactly in WAR order for the 5 NL’ers.  Vladamir Guerrero (7.4) beat Ichiro for AL MVP who finished 7th.   The year with the most pitchers 8.0+ was 1971 with 6:  Wilbur Wood (10.7), Fergie Jenkins (9.2), Tom Seaver (9.2), Vida Blue (8.8), Mickey Lolich (8.6), and Dave Roberts (8.5).  Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich finished above Wilbur Wood for AL Cy Young while Fergie Jenkins edged out Tom Seaver for NL.)

I’ve combined the above into one stat using the following formula:  Career WAR + 10 * MVP seasons (8.0+ WAR) + 5 * All-Star seasons (5.0-7.9 WAR).  I’ll call this ‘Peak-Adjusted WAR’ for the series of posts.  This is admittedly arbitrary but seems to do a fair job at rewarding those with high peaks vs. long careers.  Case in point:  Carlton Fisk has one more career WAR than Gary Carter (67.3 to 66.3) aided by playing close to 2 more seasons worth of games.  But Gary Carter had 8 seasons of All-Star value (most ever for a catcher amongst retired players as of 2005) while Carlton Fisk only had 4.  This adjustment puts Carter ahead of Fisk 106.3-87.3 (2nd and 3rd behind Johnny Bench).  Sandy Koufax has far less career WAR to Don Sutton (54.5 to 70.8) but his 3 MVP seasons (1963, 1965, 1966) and two All-Star seasons give him 40 extra points where Don Sutton’s 4 All-Star seasons give him 20.  Thus, Koufax scores higher 94.5 to 90.8.  (Click here for access to the spreadsheet on Google Docs).

In looking at the scores across all players, I’d say for me that a peak-adjusted WAR of 100 is a no-brainer selection, anything from 80-100 is in the consideration set (with more bias towards positions with less players who’ve reached that plateau, and anything under 80 isn’t a consideration except for relief pitchers or special cases (e.g., an untimely death, Negro-league players, a player lost peak time to serve in the war, etc.)

3) Hall of Fame Position Representativeness - While WAR takes position into account for single seasons, it cannot adjust for the fact that certain positions (notably Catcher and Middle Infield) are tougher to have long careers than other positions (notably corner OF/1B/DH).  My general POV is that if a player was in the top 10 at his position in the past 60 years (1945-2005), he warrants Hall of Fame consideration even if their stats look lower than average.

Players On The Razzball 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot (see links for posts on each player):

Players Considering For The Future

* Yes, I’m shocked how high John Olerud scores on peak-adjusted WAR.  He had two 8.0+ WAR seasons which is two more than the following 1B/DHs on the ballot Rafael Palmiero, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines, and Tino Martinez.  This is because John Olerud had a much better OBP than anyone on this list (other than Edgar Martinez) and was a more valuable glove than anyone else during his peak years (about equal with Palmeiro and Mattingly).   The AVG/OBP/SLG and OPS+ for those 8.0+ WAR years were:  .363/.473/.599 in 1993 with a 186 OPS+ and a .354/.447/.551 with a 163 OPS+ in 1998.   Mattingly never cleared .400 OBP once in his career, Palmeiro did it once (a pot-friendly .420 in 1999), and McGriff did it twice (.403 and .400).  Neither of the three had a higher OPS+ than those two Olerud years.

Players Who Fall Short

In this post, I’m going to cover the two best pitchers on the ballot other than Bert Blyleven:  Jack Morris and Kevin Brown.

Jack Morris

WAR Totals:  44.3 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 39.3 career WAR + 1 All-Star seasons (+5 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  18 seasons,  254-186, 3.90 ERA / 1.296 WHIP / 3,824 IP / 2,478 K / 1,390 BB / 175 CG / 28 Shutouts / 105 ERA+

162 Game Stats:  16-12 / 242 IP / 33 GS / 11 CG / 2 Shutouts / 157 K / 88 BB

Career Excellence

Jack Morris was a perfectly good pitcher for a long period of time but – from a WAR perspective – he has absolutely no case for the Hall of Fame.  The 44.3 Peak-Adjusted WAR is 133rd for pitchers.  There are two starting pitchers in the HOF with a worse Peak-Adjusted WAR – Rube Marquard (43.5) who retired in 1925 and Satchel Paige whose WAR would be at least double that of Morris if integration happened earlier.  His 105 ERA+ (adjusted for era and park) is only better than Marquard’s and is tied with Catfish Hunter.  Among post-war HOF SP’s, only Bob Feller and Early Wynn have a higher WHIP.

The case for Jack Morris from writers like Jon Heyman or Bob Ryan generally rests on that he won the most games in the 1980′s and that he was a big-game pitcher.  Dan Symborski of BaseballThinkFactory.org, the creator of ZiPS projections, and occasional ESPN contributor wrote a great article on Morris that address these claims.  Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus did a start-by-start analysis that shows his high ERA cannot just be explained by the fact that he ‘pitched to the score’.

Here are two more logs for the fire….

1) Yes, Jack Morris had the most wins but he wasn’t the best pitcher.  Below are the top 12 most valuable pitchers from 1980-1989 as measured by WAR.  Several of these pitchers (Hershiser, Clemens, Gooden, Saberhagen) didn’t get started until 1983-1984 but still provided more value in 6-7 years than Morris did in 10 years.  You would’ve needed a below average pitcher to throw those other years in order to match the value of Morris.

Wins depend on the team offense and defense.  As Dan pointed out in his post, Morris’s teams averaged 4.9 runs in support for him which was 50% higher than average.  That is how he won 22 games more than Dave Stieb despite having near equal games started, Stieb pitching much better (ERA+ 127 vs. 109), and throwing more quality starts (60.7% vs. 59.9%).  All eleven of these pitchers managed a better ERA+ than Morris and only Blyleven and Hough managed a lower percentage of quality starts.

Top Starting Pitchers – 1980-1989

As for ‘big game pitcher’, here is what I wrote in last year’s post regarding Morris:

“…his career playoff stats are 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA.  Good, yes.  Great, no.  Four of these wins came in the 1991 Twins ALCS and World Series victories – the most famous of course being his 1-0 10 inning shutout against Atlanta in the 7th game.  No doubt this was awesome and extremely memorable.  He was also great for the 1984 Tigers going 3-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA.

Looking at those two playoff runs, you could forgive that he lost his only start for Detroit @ Minnesota in the 1987 ALCS (8 IP / 6 ER).  But how about his 1992 playoff run for the Toronto Blue Jays – a team that gifted him 21 wins with his 4.04 ERA/102 ERA+?  In 4 starts across the ALCS and WS, he went 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA.  Toronto beat Atlanta 4 wins to 2 – Morris lost both of those games.

I’m not saying Jack Morris was a bad playoff pitcher – it is that he is remembered as better because of selective memory.  For comparison sake, Dave Stewart went 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA during his playoff stints with Oakland and Toronto.  John Smoltz went 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA.  David Cone went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA.  Roger Clemens – who isn’t particularly regarded for playoff dominance – has a 12-8 record with a 3.75 ERA.  Net-net, Morris was good in the postseason but not extraordinary (outside of that one start).”

Peak Excellence

Jack Morris only had one ‘All-Star’ season of 5.0+ WAR.  No starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame have less than two and most modern-day HOF pitchers have at least six (Sutton had 4).

I think Morris fit the ‘workhorse’ pitching archetype the best.  Every year, he’d give 200-270  innings of slightly above average pitching.  If he was on a very good team, he could get to 20 wins (3 times (ERA+ of 127, 117, 102).  If he was on an average team, maybe he’d go 16-11.  If he was on a bad team, he’d be under .500.

This type of pitcher is definitely valuable but they sometimes get too much credit when they are fortunate to play on a run of good-to-great teams.  Aside from Catfish Hunter, these pitchers generally don’t make the Hall of Fame unless they somehow reach 300 wins.  Examples of modern-day ‘workhorses’ include Jack McDowell (average 18 wins from 1990-1993 with the White Sox with an ERA+ around 120), Dave Stewart (4 straight 20 game seasons for the 1987-1990 A’s with only one season having an ERA+ above 120), Bartolo Colon (averaged 18.5 wins from 2002-2005 with an ERA+ around 120), Dennis Leonard (averaged 18.4 wins for the 1976-1980 Royals with an ERA+ of 113, and Andy Pettitte (averaged 17 wins for the 1996-2003 Yankees with an ERA+ of 120).

All of these pitchers managed just one 5.0+ WAR season except Pettitte (3) and Stewart (0).  All of them were good pitchers who were fortunate enough to be on very good teams.

Verdict

A solid, valuable starting pitcher.  Just not a Hall-of-Fame pitcher.  If elected, he’ll arguably be the worst starter in the Hall-of-Fame (with Hunter and Marquard in the discussion).

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts:

1) Fun facts/anecdotes:  Jack Morris was definitely the most feared pitcher in his day…..by females in the media – as evidenced by this Jack Morris 1990 locker room gem to Detroit Free Press writer Jennifer Frey:  “I don’t talk to women when I am naked unless they are on top of me or I am on top of them.”

2) Jack Morris is one of three star players from Minnesota (Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield) to have their last big years for the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.  The teams are working on a free-trade agreement that will eventually include Justin Morneau’s return to Canada and for Toronto to export a crappy Minnesotan middle-infielder to be named later for Ron Gardenhire’s collection.

3) One underrated part of Morris’s resume is the moustache revival he led in the 1980′s that inspired Kirk Gibson, Chet Lemon, and, of course, Magnum P.I.

Kevin Brown

WAR Totals:  99.8 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 64.8 career WAR + 1 MVP season (define as 8.0+ WAR) and 5 All-Star seasons (+25 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  19 seasons,  211-144, 3.28 ERA / 1.222 WHIP / 3,256 IP / 2,397 K / 901 BB / 72 CG / 17 Shutouts / 127 ERA+

162 Game Stats:  15-10 / 230 IP / 34 GS / 11 CG / 1 Shutouts / 169 K / 64 BB

Career Excellence

Another point worth raising is that he wasn’t very good in the postseason.  He was 5-5 with a 4.19 ERA / 1.30 WHIP in 13 career playoff starts.  Even worse, he was 0-3 in 4 World Series starts (2 Florida, 2 SD) with 6.04/1.579 ratios.  And in the infamous 2004 Yankee-Red Sox ALCS Game 7, Kevin Brown didn’t even get out of the 2nd inning.

A last point regarding the 9 pitchers reference above with 200+ wins and ERA+ of 127 or better.  I find it interesting that 5 of the 9 are from the same era as Kevin Brown.  John Smoltz and Mike Mussina aren’t too far behind.  While it’s very possible that the 1990′s/early 2000′s saw an unprecedented glut of exceptional starting pitchers, it seems at least possible that expansion, smaller ballparks, steroids, etc. combined to:  1) Add more MLB mediocre pitchers and 2) Create less margin for error for mediocre pitchers.  Would all of these pitchers have posted ERA+ this high if they pitched in a less offensive era?

Peak Excellence

While Kevin Brown never won a Cy-Young award (finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 6th three times), he had several seasons that were at or near Cy-Young level.  His 1998 season with the Padres (18-7, 164 ERA+, 1.066 WHIP) deserved to win the Cy Young award but his league-leading 8.4 WAR were bested in the voting by Tom Glavine (and his 20 wins) and teammate Trevor Hoffman (53 saves).  His 1996 season with the Marlins (17-11, 1.89 ERA!, 217 ERA+, 0.944 WHIP) also led the led the league with 7.5 WAR but he came up 2nd behind John Smoltz (and his 24 wins).  He also finished 2nd in NL pitching WAR in 2000 and finished 3rd in 1997, 1999, and 2003.

In some ways, his pitching career reminds me of a poor man’s Randy Johnson.  He pitched well in the AL during his 20′s and then became a dominant pitcher in the NL during his 30′s.  His top 6 seasons (measured by WAR) were in the NL (for Randy, it was 5 of his top 7).

Verdict

This is a tough one.  I think I might vote for him eventually (assuming I had a ballot) but I would not do it just yet.  The statistical dominance is there.  The career excellence is on the borderline if you look at wins (211) while his WAR is strong but not a lock (his 64.8 WAR is better than several HOF pitchers like Jim Palmer and Juan Marichal).

The biggest question for me is really how to judge the pitchers in Brown’s era.  Where do you draw the line for the Hall of Fame?  I don’t think there should be caps per se for hitter/pitchers of an era but I’m hoping that someone will do an analysis done that confirms the 1990′s were or were not an advantageous time to be an above-average pitcher.  While the 1980′s arguably saw the peak of only one HOF-worthy pitcher (Roger Clemens), the 1990′s/early 2000′s saw potentially 9:  Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, and Kevin Brown.  I know the top 4 on this list are indisputed HOFers and Glavine’s 300 wins make him a virtual 5th.  I don’t know just yet where to draw the line on the other four….

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

1) Kevin Brown nearly missed a perfect game in 1997 while pitching for the Marlins with the only SF Giant baserunner reaching base via hit by pitch.  Brown mistook Marvin Benard for a clubhouse wall.

2) Kevin Brown was mentioned in the Mitchell Report, suspected of taking steroids along with fellow Dodger teammates Paul LoDuca and Eric Gagne.  Long-time friends and colleagues were unable to identify the common ‘roid rage’ symptom since Brown was always prone to tantrums (like this incident with LA where Brown left more than just skidmarks on a toilet).

The next two players on my ballot would be Tim Raines and Mark McGwire.

I covered both these players previously – Raines as part of a leadoff hitter review and McGwire as part of a review of power hitters.  I’ll leverage some of that information for this post as well as incorporate the WAR-based analysis like I did in the previous posts.

Tim Raines

WAR Totals:  94.6 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 64.6 career WAR + 6 All-Star seasons (+30 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  23 seasons,  3,977 Times on Base (2,605 hits, 1,330 BB), 1,571 Runs, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB, .294 AVG / .384 OBP / .425 SLG / 123 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  102 R /11 HR/63 RBI/52 SB

Career Excellence

In my previous post, I focused on how Tim Raines was arguably one of the top 5 leadoff hitters post-WWII (among retired players) given his 1) high OBP for a non-HR threat (.385) and 2) his fantastic baserunning (808 SBs at an amazing 84.7%).

Post-WWII Leadoff-Type Hitters With Greater Peak-Adjusted WAR Than Raines*
Rickey Henderson (198.1 peak-adjusted WAR / 113.1 WAR)
Joe Morgan (178.5 peak-adjusted WAR / 103.5 WAR)
Rod Carew (119.1 peak-adjusted WAR / 79.1 career WAR)
Pete Rose (115.3 peak-adjusted WAR / 75.3 career WAR)
Paul Molitor (109.8 peak-adjusted WAR / 74.8 career WAR)
Tony Gwynn (98.4 peak-adjusted WAR / 68.4 career WAR)
Craig Biggio (96.2 peak-adjusted WAR / 66.2 career WAR)
Tim Raines (94.6 peak-adjusted WAR / 64.6 career WAR)

*Note:  Ichiro certainly will be in this consideration set once he retires.  Johnny Damon (.355 OBP) and Carl Crawford (.337 OBP) fall short.  I’ve excluded Wade Boggs since he isn’t your prototypical leadoff hitter given his speed.

All of the above are either in the Hall of Fame, will be in the HOF (Biggio), or would be if they didn’t gamble on baseball.  Richie Ashburn (93 / 58), Lou Brock (54.1 / 39.1),  and Luis Aparicio (59.9 / 49.9) are Hall of Fame leadoff types that fall below Tim Raines both in peak-adjusted and career WAR.

The best comparison of a recent HOF nominee is Tony Gwynn (elected in his first year on the ballot with 97.6% of the votes)  Tony Gwynn has three apparent superior achievements vs. Tim Raines:  1) he has reached 3,000 hits (3,141 vs. Raines’ 2,605), 2) he has 8 batting titles (15 top 10s) vs. Raines’ 1 batting title (4 top 10s), and 3) his career average is much better (.338 vs. .294).

All of these achievements are minimized or neutralized if we take walks into the equation.  Raines has a big advantage in Walks (1,330 vs. 790) that actually gives him the advantage in times on base over Gwynn (3,977 to 3,955).  While Gwynn was dominant in Batting Average, they are much closer in OBP.  Gwynn edges Raines .388 to .385 in career OBP and has 10 top 10s (1 OBP title) to Raines’ 7 top 10s (1 OBP title).

Gwynn was the more valuable hitter of the two – as evidenced by a higher OPS+ (132 vs. 123) and this is reflecting in his batting WAR of +434 runs vs. Raines’s +306.  Raines made up most of this difference on the basepaths as his baserunning was +121 runs above replacement vs. Gwynn’s +38 runs.  Surprisingly, both players ranked as about average fielders but Gwynn comes up slightly ahead (+5 vs. -8 runs).

In the end, Raines was of near equal value to Gwynn.  The huge difference in HOF support is just a reflection that AVG and Hits are overvalued by voters (vs. OBP and Times on Base).

If we focus on just WAR for outfielders, Tim Raines ranks 24th all-time in peak-adjusted WAR for retired players (14th for post-WWII) just behind Tony Gwynn and ahead of the following post-WWII OFs:  Richie Ashburn (93 / 58), Dave Winfield (89.7 / 59.7), Andre Dawson (77 / 57), Enos Slaughter (74.1 / 54.1), Ralph Kiner (70.9 / 45.9), Jim Rice (61.5 / 41.5), Kirby Puckett (59.8 / 44.8), and Lou Brock (54.1 / 39.1).

Peak Excellence

Tim Raines had 6 All-Star seasons (5.0+ WAR) during his peak years of 1983-1992.  His MVP support was a little lower than he deserved – he had 7 top 10 WAR seasons and only 3 top 10 MVP seasons.  This isn’t surprising since 1) MVP voting skews towards power hitters (Rickey Henderson led the league in WAR 4 times and had 9 top 10s but only 1 MVP and 6 top 10s), 2) MVP voting skews towards bigger markets, and 3) MVP voting skews towards teams that win pennants.

Raines’ six seasons of 5.0+ WAR are greater than Tony Gwynn (5), Dave Winfield (4), Andre Dawson (4), Jim Rice (4), and Kirby Puckett (3).

Verdict

Tim Raines was a more valuable OF than most of the recent OF nominations.  His lack of support to date is more a reflection of the traditional valuing of players via ‘baseball card stats’ vs. more advanced statistics that give credit to other skills like baserunning and OBP.  I think he’ll eventually get in but it will take a couple more years.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

1) In 1982, Raines snorted an estimated $40,000 in cocaine.  During the Pittsburgh drug trials in 1985, Raines testified that he only slid head first to not break the vial he kept in his back pocket which he didn’t want to risk stashing in his locker.  In a dubiously unrelated note, his nickname was ‘Rock’.  He could become the third player in the HOF to have acknowledged cocaine use joining Paul Molitor and Mordecai ‘One Nostril’ Brown.

2) Tim’s son (Tim Raines Jr.) is one of 29 pairs of Sr./Jr. father/son pairs to both play in the majors.  While Ken Griffey’s kid was by far the best, the list after that is surprising murky (Sandy Alomar, Jose Cruz, and Gary Matthews are in the next three).  Tim Raines Jr. only managed 160 ABs but that was ten times more than Pete Rose Jr. (16 ABs).

3) The Montreal strip club Fleur de Sex named a lap dance after Tim Raines which became a favorite for guests who needed to get home really quick.  This proved much more popular than the ‘Andre Dawson’ (later renamed to ‘Vladimir Guerrero’) table dance where an older dancer would limp around until guests handed them money to stop and become a designated sitter.

Mark McGwire

WAR Totals:  98.1 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 63.1 career WAR + 7 All-Star seasons (+35 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  16 seasons,  2,943 Times on Base (1,626 hits, 1,317 BB), 1,167 Runs, 583 HR, 1,414 RBI, 8 SB, .263 AVG / .394 OBP / .588 SLG / 162 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  101 R /50 HR/122 RBI/1 SB

Career Excellence

There’s not much to say about McGwire that hasn’t been said.  He really only did two things (hit HRs and walk) but he did them very well.

His 98.1 peak-adjusted WAR is 6th among 1Bs retired since 2005 – below Gehrig, Foxx, Bagwell, Mize, and McCovey.  This is all-driven by HRs and walks as he was a below average runner (-19 runs vs. replacement) and fielder (-30 runs vs. replacement) even for a 1B.

He also had a relatively short career (7,660 plate appearances) – the median among HOFers is 8,960 (or approximately 2.5 more seasons).  He falls into a category of players I’d call ‘slugger’ that seem more prone to short careers because they are reliant on ‘old man skills‘ (power and batting eye) and have nothing to fall back on as their bat speed slows.  Below is a list of Hall of Famers who generally only contributed with power and possibly batting eye (i.e., average to below average defense and running).

McGwire’s HR per Plate Appearance is best of this group.  More impressively, his OPS+ is best – normalizing for era and park as some of these players didn’t play in hitter-friendly eras.  His OBP is only bested 3 of the 8 HOFers as McGwire’s good eye helped balance his low AVGs.  In fact, his HR/PA is the highest of all-time – besting Babe Ruth (6.7%) and Barry Bonds (6.0%).  His OPS+ is 11th with the only post-WWII players on the list being Ted Williams (190), Barry Bonds (181), Mickey Mantle (172), and Albert Pujols (172).  Among the players that McGwire’s OPS+ surpasses are: Willie Mays (155), Hank Aaron (155), and Stan Musial (159).  This is more impressive than the fact he is 11th on the all-time HR list since his OPS+ would adjust for the fact he played during the ‘steroid era’ where there were more HRs hit than in most other eras.

Peak Excellence

McGwire had 7 All-Star seasons of 5.0+ WAR.  His highest was his 70 HR / .470 OBP season in 1998 when he reached 7.2 WAR.  Only four first basemen had more (Gehrig, Foxx, Bagwell, Mize).

Verdict

McGwire is definitely not the most well-rounded player ever but he was a phenomenal power hitter whose batting eye led to an above-average OBP.  If steroids are taken out of the equation, he’s a rather easy decision.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

The next player I’d have on our ballot is Edgar Martinez.

WAR Totals:  112.2 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 67.2 career WAR + 9 All-Star seasons (+45 – defined as 5.0-7.9 WAR)

Stats:  18 seasons,  3,530 Times on Base (2,247 hits, 1,283 BB), 1,219 Runs, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 49 SB, .312 AVG / .418 OBP / .515 SLG / 147 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  96 R /24 HR/99 RBI/4 SB

Edgar Martinez has a tougher road to a HOF nomination than most players given that he was primarily a DH, isn’t very close to the notable career totals (3,000+ hits, 500+ HRs), never played in a World Series (let alone won 1+ championships), and was not perceived at the time as one of the best players of his time (7 All-Stars but only 2 top-10 MVPs).

I’m going to start with the pro-Edgar arguments that I believe make the case for Edgar Martinez in the HOF and then address the perceived shortcomings noted above.

Reason Edgar Martinez Should Be In The Hall of Fame

1)  Career Excellence – Edgar’s 67.2 career WAR is 58th all-time amongst retired hitters (9 current players are higher).  Of the 57 above him, 49 are in the Hall of Fame, three are likely to be elected in (Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas), one is barred (Pete Rose), one is a turn of the century player (Bill Dahlen), and the other three are Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Larry Walker.  I covered the worthiness of Whitaker and Grich in a previous post.

HOF’ers below Edgar Martinez total include:  Duke Snider (67.5), Eddie Murray (66.7), Willie McCovey (65.1), Ernie Banks (64.4), Harmon Killebrew (61.1), Dave Winfield (59.7), Richie Ashburn (58), Willie Stargell (57.5), Billy Williams (57.2), Andre Dawson (57), Joe Medwick (55.8), and Jim Rice (41.5).

Edgar’s biggest contribution to winning was his phenomenal OBP.  His .418 career OBP is 22nd-time (with 3,000+ Plate Appearances) but only 7 of those ahead of him are post-WWII players are Ted Williams (.482), Barry  Bonds (.444), Albert Pujols (.426), Todd Helton (.424), Ferris Fain (.424)*, Mickey Mantle (.421), and Frank Thomas (.419).  He is one of only 5 post-WWII retired players to have a career line above the .300/.400/.500 (AVG/OBP/SLG) line – the others are Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Larry Walker, and Frank Thomas.

* Ferris Fain was a no-power 1B from 1945-1954 that won two batting titles (1951-1952) and had a .400+ OBP his first seven full years.  He hurt his knee at 33 and never really recovered.

He had 4 100+ BB seasons and only one 100+ K season.  He is one of only 11 post-WWII players to have a .500+ SLG and 8,000 Plate Appearances with more career BBs than Ks.  The last 4 players to retire before him to achieve this were Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron.

Edgar’s 147 career OPS+ (OBP+SLG adjusted for park and era) is tied for 39th of all time with Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, Willie McCovey, and Jim Thome.

2) Peak Excellence – Edgar Martinez never had that ‘no doubt about it’ MVP season.  His best MVP finish of 3rd (1995′s 121/29/113 with a rate line .356/.479/.628)  was actually fair given it was his best WAR season (7.7) and he did finish 3rd in the AL in WAR (although the two with higher WAR – John Valentin and Randy Johnson – finished 9th and 6th respectively as Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle finished in the top two.)

The amazing part of Edgar’s peak is how long he was a great player.  His peak was more like a plateau.  From 1990-2001, Edgar played 10 full seasons.  His WAR in those 10 were 7.7, 6.2, 6.2, 6.2, 5.9, 5.7, 5.5, 5.1, 5.0, and 4.6.  Only 19 post-WWII players managed 10 or more seasons with 4.6+ WAR.  The non-HOFers with 10+ other than Edgar Martinez are:  Barry Bonds (18), Alex Rodriguez (12), Jeff Bagwell (11), Albert Pujols (10), and Ken Griffey Jr. (10).

In terms of leaderboards, Edgar won 2 batting titles and 7 top 10s,  3 OBP titles and 11 top 10s, 6 top 10 SLG, 1 RBI title with 3 top 10s, 2 times led in doubles with 5 top 10s, and one top 10 in HRs.

Reservations For Voting Edgar Martinez To The Hall of Fame

1) He was primarily a DH.

If Edgar Martinez is elected into the Hall of Fame, he will have played far and away the highest percentage of games at DH for a member.  Martinez played 70% of his games at DH – the next 5 in order are Paul Molitor (44%), Jim Rice (26%), Reggie Jackson (23%), Eddie Murray (19%), and George Brett (19%).

Since the introduction of the DH, people have wondered what it would take for one to make the Hall of Fame.  This barely came up with Paul Molitor (44% of his games at DH) and Harold Baines (37 career WAR with zero MVP or All-Star quality years) didn’t really warrant the analysis of determining how much should one be penalized for playing DH.  This should also come up again when Frank Thomas is up for election as he played 57% of his games at DH.

Luckily, the WAR statistic penalizes DHs so I am going to review that and judge whether Edgar Martinez was appropriately penalized.

There are three primary values in WAR that pertain to a player’s position (note: for this one I’m going to shift back to Sean Smith’s terminology vs. Baseball-Reference and cut/paste his definitions):

- TZ (Total Zone) – TotalZone, a measure of defensive range based on analysis of retrosheet play by play data. For seaons before 1953, and the 1953 American League, this measure is based on a much cruder formula called JAARF (Just another adjusted range factor.) which estimates defensive ratings from assists, putouts and errors, as well as team hits allowed by lefthanded and righthanded pitchers.  (Rudy’s translation:  This is an estimate on the number of runs that a defensive player saved/cost a team compared to a replacement fielder)

- Position Adjustment – Based on how players perform at multiple positions. I have made separate position calculations by decade.  (Rudy’s Translation:  We know it’s tougher to play CF than LF, SS vs. 2B, 3B vs. 1B, etc., by watching baseball over the years.  Through analyzing the performance of those who have played multiple positions, you can credit/penalize players who play harder/easier positions.  Here is a great primer on positional adjustments by Graham at the Mariners’ blog Lookout Landing)

- Replacement Value –  The difference between a league average player and replacement level. This is normally 20 runs per season (650 PA), but varies slightly depending on the strength of the league. Currently, the American league is stronger than the National league, but 50 years ago the opposite was true.  (Rudy’s Translation:  We know from watching baseball that it is easier to replace certain positions than others.  Let’s say you are the 1990′s Texas Rangers and your two best players are Ivan Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez.  While Juan Gone might be the better hitter, you can get much better hitting replacement OFs from the farm team or off waivers than you could a replacement catcher.  You would rather lose Juan Gone because he is easier to replace.  So if a catcher and LF provide the same offensive/defensive value, the catcher should be deemed more valuable since they are harder to replace.)

Edgar Martinez started his career as a third baseman.  His first two complete years (1990-1991) he played 3B for 247 of 251 games and had a +20 TZ.  For some perspective, that was tied for best in the AL with Gary Gaetti (and better than Robin Ventura and Wade Boggs).  He played another 103 games at 3B in 1992 and had a -5 TZ.   So let’s be safe and say he showed signs of being potentially an above-average fielder at 3B.  But then he tore his hamstring in 1993 and almost exclusively played DH from 1995 onwards.

From seeing Edgar run the bases all those years, it’s clear he couldn’t have played 3B effectively after the injury.  Third base is a demanding position – many third basemen have to switch off to first base simply because of age.  Examples include George Brett and Troy Glaus.  Then there are players that are moved from third to first base because of early injuries (Dick Allen), injury prevention  (Albert Pujols?, Mark Teixeira?) and/or because of poor 3B defense (Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Miguel Cabrera).  We have also seen completely hobbled power hitters at 1B in the NL like Jack Clark and Mark McGwire.

So instead of judging Edgar Martinez solely as a DH, let’s assume he played 1B for most of those years (so his DH % was closer to the 19-30% of games like the other HOFers reference earlier).  How bad of an 1B would he have to be to overcome the penalties that WAR doles out for DHing?

Edgar was near exclusively a DH for 10 years (1995-2004).  Let’s say he only DH’d his last 3 years which would mean he DH’d for 17% of his games (in line with several other HOFers).  And we assume that 1) he wouldn’t have injured himself in the field as a 1B from 1995-2001 and 2) playing the field wouldn’t have hurt his hitting.

WAR penalizes Edgar Martinez with -101 runs in Position Adjustment for playing DH from 1995-2001.  Using a mix of Rafael Palmeiro and Carlos Delgado (who collectively played full-time 1B in AL during those years), I estimate he would’ve been given a -73 run adjustment for playing first base during those years with a similar Replacement Value.  So WAR, in effect, would give Martinez exactly the same value he had as DH if he played 1B and cost his team a total of 28 runs on defense (or an average of 4 runs a year).  It’s rare for a first basemen with such poor defensive skills to play seven straight years but it’s not unprecedented.  Carlos Delgado played full-time 1B from 1999-2005 and managed -35 runs below replacement.  If we use Delgado as a conservative proxy (a bit cruel since Martinez showed signs of defensive skills where Delgado defense was always indefensible), this would mean we would remove 1 run per year which amounts to 0.1 WAR/year (10 runs = 1 WAR).

Net-net, assuming Edgar Martinez could’ve stayed healthy playing below average 1B instead of DH, his WAR value be roughly the same.  I think this is an important consideration for valuing players.  Poor-fielding 1Bs like Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, or Miguel Cabrera might actually be more valuable as a DH assuming the next best hitter is an average-fielding 1B.

2) His career seemed short and his counting stats are so-so (in about 15 complete seasons, 2,247 hits, 309 HRs)

Career hits is a misleading statistic as it penalizes players who took a lot of walks.  Edgar Martinez is 43rd all-time (as of end of year 2010) in career walks.  While 44 of the top 50 in walks managed 2000+ hits, only 13 of those in the top 50 in walks managed 3,000 hits.   This includes Barry Bonds (2,935), Babe Ruth (2,873), Joe Morgan (2,517), Mickey Mantle (2,415), Mike Schmidt (2,234), and Harmon Killebrew (2,086).

Edgar’s 3,619 times on base (2,247 Hits, 1,283 Walks, 89 HBP) ranks 72nd among retired players.  Many of the Hall-of-Famers below Edgar Martinez are questionable HOF inclusions, served during wartime, or played tougher positions but some notable players below him include Andre Dawson (3,474), Ernie Banks (3,416), Willie Stargell (3,247), Jim Rice (3,186), Duke Snider (3,108), and Kirby Puckett (2,810).

His HR total is not very impressive for HOF standards – particularly given his time period.  Unlike similar high OBP peers like Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez was more of a doubles hitter.

So his counting stats make the decision harder.  It would require fantastic rate statistics (AVG/OBP/SLG) to counteract the totals which Edgar Martinez had.

3) How many future HOFers could those 1990′s Mariners have for a team that never even made the World Series?

It is amazing to think that the 1990′s Seattle Mariners had three sure-fire Hall of Famers in their relative primes (Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson), Edgar Martinez, as well as very good players in their prime including Jay Buhner and Tino Martinez yet did not manage one World Series visit.

Below is a batting vs pitching WAR comparison vs. the two other great teams of those years – the Yankees and the Indians.

The Mariners offense from 1995-1998 were superior to the Indians and Yankees who played in all four World Series during those years with the 1998 Yankees being an outlier.  It was the pitching that kept the Mariners back all those years.  Randy Johnson had two very strong years during that time (1995 with 7.8 WAR, 1997 with 7.7 WAR) but managed only 60 IP in 1996 and was mediocre in 1998 (9-10/4.33 ERA/1.288 WHIP) when the Mariners traded him late in the year to the Astros.  Jeff Fassero and Jamie Moyer had solid years in 1997 and 1998.  Mike Timlin was a solid arm in the bullpen but, otherwise, there was little quality depth otherwise throughout the four years.  The worst example of that is 1997 when Randy Johnson, Jeff Fassero, and Jamie Moyer were 15.8 WAR and the rest of the pitching staff accounted for -8.3 WAR!  By the time 1999 rolled around and the pitching staff got back to adequate (thanks to the spoils of the Randy Johnson trade – Freddy Garcia and John Halama), the offensive depth had deteriorated down to Griffey, A-Rod, and Edgar Martinez.  (This lack of offensive depth best exemplified by Brian L. Hunter to whom we awarded a Razzball Spotlight post thanks to his .280 OBP and 48 OPS+ from LF)

So Edgar Martinez shouldn’t be penalized for the fact that Seattle was never able to mount a credible pitching staff during their offense’s peak in 1996-1998.

Final Verdict

There are superficial reasons why one would not vote for Edgar Martinez (played DH, low counting stats) but his sustained excellence at hitting/getting on base make him worthy for the Hall of Fame.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts

Edgar Martinez is of Puerto Rican heritage.  He was born in New York but, after his parents’ divorce, he wanted to be around less Puerto Ricans so he moved to Puerto Rico.

Unlike other baseball players, Edgar Martinez married early and was not tempted by the allures of baseball groupies.  When asked about it, Edgar replied, “I’m afraid if I play the field that I’ll injure my hamstring.”

The Mariners did not like to bat Jay Buhner in front of Edgar Martinez, fearing the hitter after Martinez would suck.  (Aw yeah, J. Edgar Hoover joke.  Add one to the Rudy Gamble file, G-Men!)

The 1995 Mariners are one of only 572 teams to have two Martinezes (Edgar and Tino) on their team.

The next players I’d have on our ballot are three middle infielders:  Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar.

Alan Trammell

WAR Totals:  106.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 66.9 career WAR + 1 MVP seasons (+10) and 6 All-Star seasons (+30)

Stats:  20 seasons, 3,215 Times on Base (2,314 hits, 850 BB), 1,231 Runs, 185 HR, 1,003 RBI, 236 SB, .285 AVG / .352 OBP / .415 SLG / 110 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  87 R /13 HR/71 RBI/17 SB

Barry Larkin

WAR Totals:  103.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 68.9 career WAR + 7 All-Star seasons (+35)

Stats:  19 seasons, 3,279 Times on Base (2,340 hits, 939 BB), 1,329 Runs, 198 HR, 960 RBI, 379 SB, .295 AVG / .371 OBP / .444 SLG / 116 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  99 R / 15 HR / 71 RBI / 28 SB

Roberto Alomar

WAR Totals:  88.5 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 63.5 career WAR + 5 All-Star seasons (+25)

Stats:  17 seasons, 3,756 Times on Base (2,724 hits, 1,032 BB), 1,508 Runs, 210 HR, 1134 RBI, 474 SB, .300 AVG / .371 OBP / .443 SLG / 116 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  103 R / 14 HR / 77 RBI / 32 SB

Before this latest analysis, I had these three in reverse order (see my middle infielder analysis from last year).  This also matched the HOF voters who had Alomar on 73.7% of the ballots, Larkin on 51.6%, and Trammell on 22.4%.

Trammell and Barry Larkin are pretty much a coin flip based on this analysis.  They are #2 and #3 based on my calculations for post-WWII shortstops who were retired as of 2005 – both trailing Cal Ripken’s 139.9 (If you count Robin Yount and Ernie Banks as shortstops, though they played 50% of their time at CF and 1B respectively, they would be #4 and #5).  Trammell edges Larkin on my calculations because his best season (1987) was an 8.4 MVP-level season while Larkin’s best was 7.4 (1996 when he went 30-30, a better year than in 1995 when he won the MVP).

Overall, Larkin was better offensively and baserunning while Trammell bested Larkin in defensive value.

I think the reason why Trammell has been unappreciated so far by HOF voters is the middle infielder bias I referred to in my post last year.  MI’s rarely play long enough to get 3,000 hits (Ripken is currently the only player with 70% of their starts at SS to reach the mark.  Jeter will be there likely by the 2011 All-Star break) nor are they built to reach milestones like 400 HRs (only Ripken).  The one exception for a modern SS is Ozzie Smith who got in mainly for his glove.

Here is an interesting comparison of Runs above Replacement for Alan Trammell vs. Barry Larkin vs. Ozzie Smith.

While Ozzie was rightfully voted into the HOF fueled by his amazing glove, note how he gave back over 60% of those runs with his below average hitting.  While Trammell and Larkin were not in Ozzie’s class for fielding, their solid defense and much better bats more than made up for it.

As for Roberto Alomar, I was very surprised to see that he had less All-Star worthy seasons of 5.0+ WAR (5) than Trammell or Larkin (both with 7).  In reviewing the data, I found a couple of reasons for this (mis)perception:

1) Roberto Alomar’s sterling defensive reputation is not backed up by advanced defensive statistics.  Baseball-Reference’s Rfield has him at -32 runs for his career – basically saying he was a BELOW AVERAGE fielder.  Here is a comparison of the top 2Bs based on number of Gold Gloves.

Now it’s misleading in that several of these players (Morgan and Biggio) had struggles early and late in their careers but had solid Rfield stats during their Gold Glove years.  I think the advanced statistics correlate fairly well with the less exact Gold Glove awards so I am going to give the benefit of the doubt to the statistics that Alomar’s defense was overrated compared to the perception at the time (note: another popular metric, UZR, didn’t consider Alomar’s defense great either).

2) While I’ve found that middle infielders tend to be penalized in MVP-voting because of a bias towards HR/RBI that favor 1B/OF, it seems that Alomar’s top-10 MVP votes exceed his true value.

My best guess for this is that Alomar happened to play on better teams than the other two players.  Trammell’s Tigers only exceeded 90 games twice (1984, 1987) and Larkin’s Reds had three 90+ win seasons (1990, 1992, 1999).  Alomar’s teams had seven 90+ win seasons (Toronto – 1991-1993, Baltimore – 1997, Cleveland – 1999-2001).  Of the 10 MVP nominations, only 2 (Larkin 1995, Trammell 1988) were to players on teams with less than 90 wins*.  It also helped that Alomar was more durable than Trammell and Larkin (13 seasons of 140+ games vs. 7 for Larkin and 8 for Trammell) which helps build up counting stats.

* Note:  Derek Jeter – who has played on 90+ win teams for all but two seasons of 87 and 89 wins – has 7 top-10 MVP finishes and 6 top-10 WAR seasons (excluding pitchers).  Cal Ripken – who played on only three 90+ win teams – had 3 top-10 MVP finishes and 7 top-10 WAR seasons (excluding pitchers).

3) The boom in shortstops over the last 30 years hurts the perception of Trammell and Larkin vs. Alomar.

In the past 30 years, we have seen the best post-WWII SS (Cal Ripken), the best fielding SS ever (Ozzie Smith), the best peak SS (Alex Rodriguez top years edge Ernie Banks), the first two shortstops to reach 3,000 hits (Ripken, Jeter soon enough), and that doesn’t include great players like 2-time MVP Robin Yount (one at SS), one-time MVP Miguel Tejada or Nomar Garciaparra (6 seasons of 5.9+ WAR).

There have been good 2Bs in the past 30 years (Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker) but they do not cast nearly the same shadow.

This boom overshadows the fact that – everything equal – shortstops are more valuable than second basemen.  According to Tom Tango’s research, the estimated difference in value is 5 runs per 600 plate appearances.  A team win is estimated to be 10 runs and, thus, over a 9000 PA career (roughly 15 full seasons), a SS is worth 75 more runs or 7.5 wins.

Looking at their career rate statistics, the three players are very close to even.  Trammel’s offense is slightly below the other two though some of that is corrected for era in OPS+.  But look at Larkin vs. Alomar.  The rates are almost exactly equal!  Alomar did have 1,343 more plate appearances which would eat into much if not all of Larkin’s positional advantage in WAR (figure Alomar would need two seasons at 3.75 WAR to negate the advantage).  But I do not think the boost to his career counting stats (2,724 hits, 210 HRs, 474 SBs) vs. Larkin (2,348 hits, 198 HRs, 379 SBs) is the reason for their perceived difference (as seen in 2010 HOF voting).

Trammell – 285 AVG / .352 OBP / .415 SLG / 110 OPS+

Larkin – .295 AVG / .371 OBP / .444 SLG / 116 OPS+

Alomar – .300 AVG / .371 OBP / .443 SLG / 116 OPS+

Now even with crediting Alomar as below-average on defense, he still ends up 5th (based on my formula) amongst post-WWII second baseman who retired by 2005 behind Joe Morgan (103.5), Bobby Grich (102.6), Ryne Sandberg (97), and Lou Whitaker (89.7).   Three post-WWII HOF second basemen are below him:  Nellie Fox (64.4),  Red Schoendienst (55.4), and Bill Mazerowski (26.9).

So I see all three players as HOF-worthy but that Alomar is a little below Larkin and Trammell in total value.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts:

Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar walked into a bar where they ran into a magical, beautiful nymph.  She looked at the three retired baseball players and said, “I’ve gone out with baseball players and I’ve been hurt by their pasts.  Before I can consider any of you, I must know what teams you played for, your major role, and who the owners were.

Trammell:  I was the heart of the Tigers when they were owned by Tom Monaghan (founder of Domino’s) and Mike Ilitch (founder of Little Caesar’s).

Nymph:  Ah, so I might catch a case of heartburn from you.

Larkin:  I was a great hitter for the Reds when they were owned by Marge Schott.

Nymph:  Ah, so I might catch a case of bat shit crazy from you.

Alomar:  I was a great player on 4 teams (San Diego, Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland) and horrible on one (NY Mets).  I have been with too many owners to name.

Nymph:  Hmm.  Well, I don’t know what I’d catch from you but I sure as hell don’t want to find out.

This is the 2nd post in a series on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot.  My first post on Jeff Bagwell covered the criteria I am using for analyzing HOF players.

The next player on our hypothetical ballot is Bert Blyleven.

WAR Totals:  145.1 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 90.1 career WAR + 1 MVP seasons (+10) and 9 All-Star seasons (+45)

Stats:  22 seasons, 287-250 / 3.31 ERA / 1.198 WHIP / 4,970 IP / 3,701 K / 1322 BB / 242 CG / 60 Shutouts / 118 ERA+

162 Game Stats:  14-12 / 245 IP / 34 GS / 12 CG / 3 Shutouts / 183 K / 65 BB

I wrote a post on Blyleven 2 years ago that still holds up (it’s not like he’s played since then).  His total score is only bested by four post-WWII players who retired by 2005:  Tom Seaver, Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Warren Spahn.  The only top 20 pitchers not to be in the Hall-of-Fame are Blyleven, the underrated Rick Reuschel (#15) and Kevin Brown (#16).  The following Hall of Fame starting pitchers are lower than Blyleven:  Bob Gibson (140.6), Steve Carlton (129.4), Fergie Jenkins (121.3), Robin Roberts (120.9), Don Drysdale (115.7), Nolan Ryan (114.8), Juan Marichal (114), Bob Feller (111), Jim Bunning (105.1), Hal Newhouser (96.3), Sandy Koufax (94.5), Jim Palmer (93.5), Don Sutton (90.8), Early Wynn (77), Whitey Ford (65.3), Bob Lemon (62.4), and Catfish Hunter (47.5).

One item that has hurt Blyleven’s HOF chances is his lack of a Cy Young or he was never an ‘ace’.  But his 1973 season of 9.2 WAR was the best in AL and he had several top 5 pitching WAR seasons.  So he pitched like a Cy Young winner and he pitched like an ace.  Isn’t reality more important than perception?

Another perceived demerit is Blyleven’s 53.4 winning percentage (287-250) and that he fell short of 300 wins.  Putting aside the fact that Wins heavily depend on factors outside of the pitcher’s control (team offense and defense), here are several Hall of Fame pitchers with comparable records:

Fergie Jenkins – 284-226 (55.7%), 115 ERA+, 1 MVP season, 6 All-Star seasons
Robin Roberts – 286-245 (53.9%), 113 ERA+, 2 MVP seasons, 4 All-Star seasons
Don Drysdale – 209-166 (55.7%), 121 ERA+, 1 MVP season, 8 All-Star seasons
Jim Bunning 224-184 (54.9%), 114 ERA+, 3 MVP seasons, 3 All-Star seasons
Red Ruffing – 273-225 (54.8%), 109 ERA+, 0 MVP seasons, 4 All-Star seasons
Catfish Hunter 224-166 (57.4%),  105 ERA+, 0 MVP seasons, 3 All-Star seasons

It is hard to see how any of these six – let alone all of them – can pass objective criteria that Blyleven could not.  None of the six had as many All-Star or better (5.0+ WAR) seasons as Blyleven and only Drysdale had a better ERA+ (which is only because Drysdale’s last season was at 31).  There really isn’t a big difference between all the winning percentages (the difference between 53.4% and 55.7% for 35 decisions is 19.5-15.5 vs. 18.7-16.3).  None of the others have better career totals than Blyleven in Wins, K’s, or any other meaningful statistic.

Another fun comparison is Nolan Ryan who went 324-292 for a 52.6% winning percentage.  Besides passing the 300 win plateau, Ryan also is the all-time leader in strikeouts (Blyleven is 5th also behind Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Steve Carlton).  Nolan Ryan out-K’d Blyleven per 9 innings (9.54 vs. 6.7) but he also out-BB’d him (4.7 vs. 2.4).  This is probably the main reason that Blyleven has the better ERA+ (118 vs. Ryan’s 112).

If you are interested in hearing more on both sides of the Blyleven argument, here are links to SI’s Jon Heyman and BaseballAnalysts.com’s Rich Lederer.  I like Heyman’s reporting on breaking news but I really think he’s out of his depths on these things.

Fun (and potentially fictional) facts:

Blyleven is the first and only great baseball player to be born in The Netherlands – unless you count Andruw Jones (who was born in Netherland Antilles) or Dutch Leonard (who liked his dates to pay for their share of the bill).

In 1986-1987 with the Twins, he gave up 50 and 46 Home Runs – setting a single-season record (50) and having the third highest total (Jose Lima’s 48 is 2nd).

As an announcer, Blyleven loves to drop the f-bomb and, based on the above pic, you can take a man out of the Netherlands but Dutch ovens die hard.

Much like the Earth and many a good joke, the views on Hall of Fame worthiness have two poles.  The first pole is the traditional view which focuses on seasonal and career ‘baseball card’ stats like AVG/Hits/HR/RBI or Wins/ERA, factors in dominance based on MVP/Cy Young voting + reputation during one’s career, and the post-season success for that individual and their team(s).    The second pole is the sabermetric view which relies on more advanced statistics with the aim of crediting the best players based on objective criteria.

I am much, much closer to the sabermetric pole than the traditionalist pole.  My view on baseball (and life) is to question and adapt my views when presented with compelling information.  I’ve been convinced that OBP & Times on Base are superior to AVG and Hits and that the traditional view of baseball has underestimated the value of walks.  I can’t view HRs or even slugging percentage as an absolute reflection of power and look for advanced stats to adjust for era and park factors.  Runs and RBIs are clearly important – you need to score runs to win games – but it’s hard to balance these stats against lineup strength, era, park factors, etc.  The same goes for pitching:  I think ERA/WHIP needs to be adjusted per era/park factors/team defense, Wins are a questionable measure given their reliance on team strength, etc.

As advanced statistics have improved, I put less faith in MVPs/Cy Youngs/All-Star voting.  The writers (and fans for All-Star) voting for those awards over the years didn’t either have access to the advanced learnings that sabermetrics has provided and/or don’t believe it.  For instance, let’s look at the 1996 MVP voting.  Juan Gonzalez had a fantastic hitting year (.314/47/144 with a .368 OBP, below average running/defense and favorable park that led him to not even make the AL Top 10 in OPS+) but exactly how could that be considered more valuable than Ken Griffey Jr. (.303/49/140 with a .392 OBP, solid baserunning, and the most valuable defensive player in the league based on Defensive WAR) or Alex Rodriguez (.358/36/123 with a .414 OBP, positive baserunning and above-average SS defense)?  In fact, of the 21 players to get at least one AL MVP vote in 1996, Juan Gonzalez had the worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  In addition, there are also some years where a player wins the MVP/Cy Young by default because there really isn’t a player who warrants it and vice versa (see 1996 where Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez – as well as Chuck Knoblauch – were worthy MVP candidates).  Does that make their year any less MVP-worthy?

So here are the criteria/stats I’m using for my HOF analysis:

1) Career Excellence - I am measuring this by career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  This statistic – which was developed by Sean Smith and is available for free on Baseball-Reference.com or Sean’s own BaseballProjection.com – calculates the value of a hitter’s offense/defense/running or a pitcher’s pitching vs. those of a replacement player (minor leaguer or waiver wire claim).  Many factors such as position, era, park, defense (for pitchers) are accounted for.  (Note:  there are slight differences in WAR calculations between Baseball-Reference and BaseballProjection.com – I use those from B-R unless otherwise noted.)

2) Peak Excellence – I think most traditional and sabermetric fans and voters agree that – everything equal – a player who had a dominant peak is more preferable to one who was just very good for a long period of time.  Rather than focus on awards, I’ve taken the B-R (and I assume Sean Smith) suggested breaks of 5.0+ WAR for an All-Star season and 8.0+ WAR for an MVP season.    For reference, between 1901 and 2010, there were 282 hitting seasons and 132 pitching seasons that surpassed 8.0.  That roughly 2.7 hitters and 1.2 pitchers per year which seems fair when you consider there are about 2x the hitters than pitchers who play enough to reach this total.

(Bit of trivia:  The year with the most 8.0+ WAR hitters is 2004 with 6:  Barry Bonds (12.4), Adrian ‘El Senator‘ Beltre (10.1), Albert Pujols (9.4), Scott Rolen (9.2), Jim Edmonds (8.4), and Ichiro (8.1).  The NL MVP vote went exactly in WAR order for the 5 NL’ers.  Vladamir Guerrero (7.4) beat Ichiro for AL MVP who finished 7th.   The year with the most pitchers 8.0+ was 1971 with 6:  Wilbur Wood (10.7), Fergie Jenkins (9.2), Tom Seaver (9.2), Vida Blue (8.8), Mickey Lolich (8.6), and Dave Roberts (8.5).  Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich finished above Wilbur Wood for AL Cy Young while Fergie Jenkins edged out Tom Seaver for NL.)

I’ve combined the above into one stat using the following formula:  Career WAR + 10 * MVP seasons (8.0+ WAR) + 5 * All-Star seasons (5.0-7.9 WAR).  I’ll call this ‘Peak-Adjusted WAR’ for the series of posts.  This is admittedly arbitrary but seems to do a fair job at rewarding those with high peaks vs. long careers.  Case in point:  Carlton Fisk has one more career WAR than Gary Carter (67.3 to 66.3) aided by playing close to 2 more seasons worth of games.  But Gary Carter had 8 seasons of All-Star value (most ever for a catcher amongst retired players as of 2005) while Carlton Fisk only had 4.  This adjustment puts Carter ahead of Fisk 106.3-87.3 (2nd and 3rd behind Johnny Bench).  Sandy Koufax has far less career WAR to Don Sutton (54.5 to 70.8) but his 3 MVP seasons (1963, 1965, 1966) and two All-Star seasons give him 40 extra points where Don Sutton’s 4 All-Star seasons give him 20.  Thus, Koufax scores higher 94.5 to 90.8.  (Click here for access to the spreadsheet on Google Docs).

In looking at the scores across all players, I’d say for me that a peak-adjusted WAR of 100 is a no-brainer selection, anything from 80-100 is in the consideration set (with more bias towards positions with less players who’ve reached that plateau, and anything under 80 isn’t a consideration except for relief pitchers or special cases (e.g., an untimely death, Negro-league players, a player lost peak time to serve in the war, etc.)

3) Hall of Fame Position Representativeness – While WAR takes position into account for single seasons, it cannot adjust for the fact that certain positions (notably Catcher and Middle Infield) are tougher to have long careers than other positions (notably corner OF/1B/DH).  My general POV is that if a player was in the top 10 at his position in the past 60 years (1945-2005), he warrants Hall of Fame consideration even if their stats look lower than average.

This brings me to the top player on my imaginary 2011 ballot – Jeff Bagwell.

WAR Totals:  139.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 79.9 career WAR + 3 MVP seasons (+30) and 6 All-Star seasons (+30)

Stats:  15 seasons, 2,314 hits, 1,517 Runs, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SBs, .297 AVG / .408 OBP / .540 SLG / 149 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  114 R /34 HR/115 RBI/15 SB

Don’t let the 449 career HRs fool you.  Based on either career WAR or my Peak-Adjusted WAR, Jeff Bagwell was the best 1st baseman post-WWII (excluding Albert Pujols) and the 4th best ever behind Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, and Jimmie Foxx.  Now just about everyone reading this lived through the Bagwell era (as it was known by no one outside of Houston and the Bagwell extended family).  It didn’t FEEL like he was the best 1B in the past 60 years, did it?

Here are several reasons why it might not have felt that way:

1) Bagwell played his first 9 seasons (23-31) in the hitter un-friendly Astrodome. He still put up great baseball card stats (AVG/HR/RBI) but the Astrodome maybe cost him a HR championship or two.  His OPS+ (OBP + SLG, adjusted by era and park) was top 10 in the NL for 8 of his 9 Astrodome years.  His career OPS+ is the 10th best among retired post-WWII players.  Ahead of him are (Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire, Stan Musial, Dick Allen, Frank Thomas, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson).

2) He played in an era with a lot of great hitting 1Bs. Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, and Jason Giambi to name a few.

3) While his AVG was very good (career. 297), it was his ability to walk that led to his excellent .408 career OBP (14th best among post-WWII players).  As mentioned above, walking/OBP has traditionally been undervalued (and the nominations of Jim Rice and Andre Dawson confirm they are still undervalued).

4) Baserunning isn’t generally expected nor valued for 1st basemen. Bagwell is clearly the best baserunner amongst modern-day 1Bs (even Cecil Fielder!). His career baserunning (using B-R’s Rbaser) of 29 runs above average is more than double that of the next modern 1B (Albert Pujols – 14).  To give some perspective, Rafael Palmeiro is at -10 runs below replacement, Todd Helton at -11 runs, Mark McGwire at -19 runs, Frank Thomas at -26 runs, Jim Thome at -27 runs, and Carlos Delgado the worst at -30 runs.  The conversion is 10 runs per win so Bagwell’s running led an estimated 3-6 additional teams wins in his career vs. other similar slugging first basemen of his era.

5) Fielding isn’t traditionally valued very high for 1st basemen. While Bagwell falls short of the pantheon of fielding 1Bs (top modern-day 1Bs based on B-R’s Rfield (very close to TZ) – are Keith Hernandez, Albert Pujols, and John Olerud), he’s at about the 20th percentile of qualified 1Bs and that is including an AWFUL 2005 season where Bagwell’s arthritic shoulder led to him being tied for the worst defensive 1B season ever.  Take away the shoulder injury and he’d be closer to the 10th percentile.  Several of the slugging 1Bs of the era were below-average fielders including Jim Thome (-22 runs below average), Mark McGwire (-30 runs below average), Fred McGriff (-34 runs) Carlos Delgado (-43 runs), Frank Thomas (-64 runs), and Jason Giambi (-73 runs).

6) Houston is a great city to have an excellent and anonymous career. Ask Jimmy Wynn and Jose Cruz Sr.

So even though Bagwell had 3 MVP-quality seasons (1994, 1996, 1997) – which is one more than Jim Thome (1), Todd Helton (1), Frank Thomas (0), Rafael Palmeiro (0), Mark McGwire (0), and Carlos Delgado (0) combined – he doesn’t register quite the same as some of his peers.

Add all this up and Bagwell is a no-brainer selection that probably will not get in 1st ballot but will by his 2nd or 3rd ballot.

Fun (and potentially fictional) fact:

The infamous Red Sox-Astro trade of Jeff Bagwell for reliever Larry Anderson was influenced by Boston’s management’s desire for players with hard A’s in their name.  Studies at the time showed that opposing players would be distracted by the fans chanting these names.  Larry Anderson has twice the hard A’s as Jeff Bagwell.  If Bagwell’s name was Jack, he would’ve never been traded by the Sox.  This odd policy paid dividends when they drafted Nomar Garciaparra sight unseen.

Last year’s nomination was a mixed bag for us.  Only one of our 5 nominations made it in (Rickey – the other four were Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, and Tommy John) and one of our ‘nays’ made it in (Jim Rice).  For those who missed our HOF analysis from last year, we do our best to create objective parameters for measuring success at a specific position/role.  Rather than focus on just a player or just those that are on the ballot, we look at all players that filled a specific type of role and analyze everyone outside the Hall of Fame to unearth any perceived injustices.  Last year’s analyses were on (with returning nominees in parentheses):

• Starting Pitchers (Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris)
• Leadoff Hitters (Tim Raines)
• Middle of the Lineup Hitters (Mark McGwire, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker)

This entry is going to focus on middle infielders since there are two prominent middle infielders that are on the ballot for the first time (Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin) and one returnee for review (Alan Trammell).  We’ll review Fred McGriff and Edgar Martinez at another time (betting they’re not going to make it this year).

In all, there are 32 middle infielders who are in the Hall of Fame as players. We’re defining ‘Middle infielder’ as anyone who played 2B or SS for over 50% of their games – Robin Yount sneaks in (54% at SS) while Ernie Banks doesn’t (45%).  If you scan through the offensive stats of these 32 players, you’ll find a number of head scratchers.  Great defense and a momentous HR aside, Bill Mazeroski had a .299 OBP.  Joe Posnanski has already expounded plenty on the poetic injustice of having Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers in the Hall (get it – they were in a famous baseball poem and it’s a statistical injustice…).  Even several players who played at HOF levels have dubious counting stats – Lou Boudreau, Tony Lazzeri, Joe Gordon, Travis Jackson, Bobby Wallace, and Phil Rizzuto all fall below 2,000 hits (less than such HOF afterthoughts as Phil Garner and Jay Bell).

The point of this prologue is twofold:

1. Middle infielders shouldn’t be reviewed for the Hall of Fame using standard thresholds like 3,000 hits or 500 HRs.  Guess how many middle infielders passed the 3,000 hit barrier?  Three.  Eddie Collins (a phenomenal 2B for the A’s and White Sox from 1906-1930), Cal Ripken, and Robin Yount.  You can argue Collins is the only true Middle Infielder in the Hall of Fame to reach the mark since Ripken and Yount required position changes to reach the mark.  (Note:  Craig Biggio finished with 3,060 hits and Derek Jeter is at 2,747 by end of 2009).  As for HRs, Ripken has 431 HRs and no other HOF middle infielder has more than 301 (Rogers Hornsby).
2. Middle infielders shouldn’t be reviewed for the Hall of Fame using the statistics of the weakest enshrined players at the position as the ‘floor’.  The bar has to be set higher.  For this post, we’ll generally use the 40th-60th percentile for thresholds (e.g., the 60th percentile for a stat means that only 40% of the enshrined middle infielders met these thresholds).

Below represents a quintile analysis of the stats across the middle infielders.

A couple of quick notes:

• OPS+ – On-base percentage + slugging percentage adjusted for park and era with the average being 100.  This provides a good baseline for a player’s offensive value.  This is not weighted by position and, as you can see from the above chart, a good 30% or so of enshrined middle infielders are BELOW average vs. the average hitter (e.g., Ozzie Smith had an 87 OPS+).
• H+BB+HBP – Counting stats are important for measuring a player’s longevity.  While 3,000 hits is the standard of HOF counting stats, factoring in walks and hit-by-pitches is a better reflection of a player’s ability to get on base.  Even adding in Walks and HBPs, you can see that only about 60% of the enshrined middle infielders passed the magic 3,000 number.
• MVP Shares = This stat from Baseball-Reference.com sums the MVP vote percentages over a player’s career.  I find this more useful than focusing just on MVPs as it rewards players who had a number of seasons that are MVP-worthy.  Good example:  Ryne Sandberg has more MVP Shares than Robin Yount (1.98 vs. 1.8) despite winning one less MVP as he had one more top-5 finish and one of Yount’s MVPs was far from unanimous (1989)

Below are all middle infielders retired as of Dec 2009 that got on base more than 2,500 times and had at least a 100 OPS+ (the ‘excepcion’ made for Dave Concepcion).

Craig Biggio (not eligible until 2012)

Craig Biggio – who isn’t eligible for the ballot until 2012 – guaranteed his first ballot nomination when he passed the 3,000 hit barrier.  The fact that he stuck around an extra year or two to reach the mark will be long forgotten even by #1 fan Bill James and Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr. (renowned here for sponsoring the Brad Ausmus Welfare Program).  Much like Rickey Henderson, Biggio limped to 3,000 hits because he took free passes during many of his plate appearances (including the 2nd most HBPs in history).  The only players who started their career since 1962 who got on base more than Biggio were Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson (Paul Molitor had 250 more hits but 45 less times on base).  He also hit 668 doubles which is the 5th most of all time – the most for a right-handed hitter.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  When Craig Biggio and Mo Vaughn were teammates at Seton Hall University in New Jersey, they went by the nicknames Taffy & Pork Roll.  Oddly enough, Biggio was the one called Pork Roll.

Roberto Alomar (first time on ballot)

If you compare Roberto Alomar’s stats compared to the middle infielders in the HOF, his stats are in the top 40% on just about any statistic.  Let’s take the most recent 2B to get voted by the BBWAA into the HOF – Ryne Sandberg.   Despite Sandberg hitting 72 more HRs than Alomar (282 to 210), Alomar had the higher OPS+ (116 to 114).  Alomar crushes him in times on base (3,868 to 3,240), has more RBIs, more Runs, more SBs, more World  Series rings (sorry Cubs fans), and matches him on fielding prowess (10 GGs to Sandberg’s 9).  While Alomar never won an MVP, he finished in the top 6 five times.  So why might voters not vote him in?  He doesn’t have 3,000 hits but if Sandberg can get in with 2,300 hits, how can Alomar be kept out?  His career fell off a cliff after 33 but it wasn’t his fault that he was traded to the Mets.  The only reason I can think of is the whole spitting incident with John Hirschbeck but if Ty Cobb is in there…

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:   The Spanish-speaking Alomar was engaged to marry French-speaking tennis player Mary Pierce in a completely non-suspect heterosexual coupling that, alas, did not work out. There has been an infectious amount of chatter about his relationships since then.

Barry Larkin (first time on ballot)

Barry Larkin’s resume is about as good as you’ll find for a shortstop not named Honus Wagner: 116 OPS+, relative longevity for a middle infielder (19 seasons, 3400+ times on base), good glove (3 Gold Gloves), and excellent base-running (379 SBs at an 83% rate).  Two interesting comparisons:

Barry Larkin vs. Cal Ripken – While Ripken has more than double the HRs of Larkin (431 to 198), Larkin actually has a higher OPS+ (116 vs. 112) , BA (.295 vs. .276), OBP (.371 vs. .340), and almost the same SLG (.444 vs. .447).  They both even had a far less successful sibling in the pros.  Factor in Larkin’s superior speed and you’ve got a pretty good case that Larkin was a better player than Ripken.  Ripken’s big advantage?  Durability.  Larkin only played 150+ games in 4 of his 19 seasons.  So Larkin might have been better when healthy but Ripken was more valuable overall.

Barry Larkin vs. Roberto Alomar – Same OPS+ (116).  Same OBP (.371).  Near identical 162 game rates – Larkin 99/15/71/28, Alomar 103/14/77/32.   Multiple Gold Gloves.  It’ll be fitting if they go in at the same time.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  When Barry Larkin and Chris Sabo were teammates at the University of Michigan, they went by the nicknames Wolverine & Teen Wolf.  Oddly enough, neither were given a cameo in the subsequent movies despite Larkin’s extensive workout routines and Sabo’s extensive commercial work.

Alan Trammell (7th year on ballot – 17.4% in 2009) & Lou Whitaker (no longer on ballot after being dropped off in 2001 with 2.9% of the votes)

It’s only fitting to analyze Trammell and Whitaker together as the double-play combo played together for 19 seasons.  Their statistics are quite comparable and the areas where Trammell has the edge is in batting average (.285 v .276), SBs (17 per 162 G vs. 10), and MVP Shares (1.22 vs. 0.21).  Trammell’s BA advantage loses luster when you realize Whitaker’s higher walk rate put him ahead on OBP (.363 vs. .352).  Whitaker also has an advantage in power (17 per 162 G vs 13) and thus it isn’t surprising that Whitaker beats Trammell in OPS+ (116 vs. 110).  Whitaker was on base 365 more times than Trammell (3,665 vs. 3,300) driven as much by Whitaker’s OBP advantage as Trammell’s knee and ankle injuries that led to him failing to pass 500 plate appearances in his last 6 seasons.

Trammell’s MVP Share advantage could be for a number of reasons but my take is it’s because Trammell’s best years were better than Whitaker’s.  Trammell finished about 130 in OPS+ five times making top 20 in MVP each of those years – the peak being finishing 2nd to George Bell in 1987 despite Trammell having the higher OPS+ (155 vs. 146).  Whitaker only reached 130 in OPS+ twice and never had a season one could argue was a top 3 MVP season.  This could be the reason why Whitaker fell off the ballot while Trammell stayed on – short of hitting the big counting stats, MVP-like seasons are the best bet for getting nominated.

Both were excellent fielders winning multiple Gold Gloves though shortstop is regarded as the harder position.

Given all of the above, I think it’s fair to say that Trammell vs. Whitaker is very close to a draw and it’s near impossible to argue for one to make the Hall and not the other.  That said, do both deserve to make the Hall?

While neither may rank quite as high as Alomar and Larkin, Whitaker and Trammell both would finish in the top 60% of enshrined middle infielders in OPS+, times on base, OBP, and just about every 162 G rate for R/HR/RBI/SB.  More convincingly, here are the retired 2B and SS that have higher OPS+ and times on base than Whitaker and Trammell:

• 2B (5) – Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Frankie Frisch
• SS (6) – Honus Wagner, Cal Ripken, Luke Appling, Joe Cronin, Robin Yount, Barry Larkin

It would seem that if only 5-6 players at your position were as valuable offensively (as measured by OPS+) for as long (as measured by Times on Base), you deserve to be a Hall of Famer.   But let’s get some perspective using recent inductees who played different positions.  Let’s use Jim Rice (OF), Eddie Murray (1B/DH), and Wade Boggs (3B) for the comparison.

• Retired OF with greater OPS+ and Times on Base than Jim Rice (29) – Most surprising entry -  non-HOFer Ken Singleton.
• Retired 1B with greater OPS+ and Times on Base than Eddie Murray (0)
• Retired 3B with greater OPS+ and Times on Base than Wade Boggs (0)

Jim Rice’s stat is a huge vote for Whitaker and Trammell.  Eddie Murray and Wade Boggs don’t help the case at all.

Final verdict for me is that both players deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.  When you can name only 5-6 players at your position which were clearly more valuable offensively plus had more longevity (with only a couple ever being televised in color) AND you were excellent fielders, I think you deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  Trammell and Whitaker solidified their 1980′s cred by starring as themselves in a Magnum PI episode.  The only more awesome 1980′s cameo by a baseball player – Reggie Jackson on MacGyver (see 33 minute mark).

Willie Randolph (no longer on ballot after being dropped off in 1998 with 1.1% of the votes)

Willie Randolph had a higher OBP (.373) and more times on base (3,528) than Jeff Kent (3,448 / .356) .  Ryne Sandberg too (3,181 / .344).  Shocking, no?

Another fun stat – Randolph had 1,243 walks and 675 strike outs.  Since 1950, there are only 6 players with a better BB/K ratio:  Ted Williams, Jim Gilliam, Richie Ashburn, Stan Musial, Gene Woodling, and Wade Boggs.  Just below Randolph?  Joe Morgan and Ozzie Smith.

While Randolph never won a Gold Glove, he had the misfortune of being in the same league as Frank White (Gold Glove 1977-1982, 1986-1987) and Lou Whitaker (1983-1985).  But using Total Fielding Runs Above Average (Rtot) as a comparison, Randolph’s career total of 114.5 runs above average is better than Whitaker (76.8) and comparable to White (125.6).

It is Willie Randolph’s OBP/Times on Base (and perhaps some fielding consideration) that earned him entry into Baseball Think Factory’s Hall of Merit.

The case for Willie Randolph doesn’t extend too much further than OBP/Times on Base and fielding.  He had little power which counteracted his strong OBP and left him with a 104 OPS+.  He had solid speed (20 SBs per 162 G) but nothing on the level of an Alomar or Larkin.  He had no seasons that look remotely like an MVP season – his 1980 season of 99/7/46/30/.294 when his .427 OBP was only bested by the .390 hitting George Brett (.454 OBP) was his closest.

Voting for Randolph comes down to whether you feel above average OBP and fielding over a long time is HOF-worthy.  I veer on the side of no.  I think that if a player has below-average power, they need to be that much greater in terms of counting stats or fielding.  Ozzie Smith was the best fielder of his time.  Tony Gwynn had over 3,000 hits and an OBP of .388.   Wade Boggs had over 3,000 hits and a ridiculous OBP (.415).  That said, Willie at least deserved to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

Vote:  NO

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  Willie Randolph grew up in the dangerous Brownsville section of Brooklyn with future NBA star Lloyd ‘World B’ Free.  While Randolph’s last name prevented a similarly creative and philanthropic first name change, he dedicated his omnipresent moustache to the fight against world hunger.

Dave Concepcion (no longer on ballot after 15 years on the ballot from 1994-2008 – highest mark was 16.9%)

The argument seems weak for Concepcion.  His 88 OPS+ is only greater than four middle infielders in the Hall (Rabbit Maranville – 82, Luis Aparicio – 82, Bill Mazeroski – 84, Ozzie Smith – 87).  Maranville is one of those historical picks that look bad in retrospect.  The other three players are all in for their glove.  Concepcion won 5 Gold Gloves and was renowned for the glove but his Total Fielding Runs Above Average for his career is only 48.3.  Ozzie Smith is at 238.7.  Aparicio was at 148.6.  Mazeroski is at 148.1.  The other great-fielding SS of his time – Mark Belanger – was at 238.0.

Based on this, it appears Concepcion was a very good SS but his fielding reputation (perhaps aided by the artificial turf at his home park?), the halo of playing on the Big Red Machine, and playing in a weak SS era gave him more time on the ballot than seems warranted.

Vote:  NO

Fun anecdote:  Dave Concepcion is beloved in his home country of Venezuela and several notable middle infielders such as Ozzie Guillen and Omar Vizquel have worn his #13 in tribute.  This love did not extend to the city of Cincinnati however as WKRP in Cincinnati failed to crack the Venezuelan Nielsen TV ratings during the 1970′s even with the prominent featuring of Charo-like Loni Anderson.

Jeff Kent (not eligible until 2013)

Given that he has significantly more HRs than any other 2nd baseman (377 with Rogers Hornsby second at 301), he’s a Hall of Fame lock.  The RBIs help too as he has the 2nd most career RBIs for a 2nd baseman (behind Hornsby) and has the most 100 RBI seasons (8).  This power is the driving reason why his OPS+ (123) is in the 80th percentile among enshrined middle infielders.

(Note:  The above uses total stats.  If you go by just stats as a 2nd baseman, he’d still be #1 in HRs – 2nd to Ryne Sandberg – and 2nd in RBIs to Nap Lajoie)

His OBP .356 is about average for enshrined middle infielders and his fielding was about league average (his Rtot was -1.4).

Not much question on this one…

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  With his moustache and pension for not taking shit from anyone (ask Barry Bonds and Milton Bradley), it’s not surprising to hear that Jeff Kent dominated the MLB Chuck Norris Award in the late 1990′s/early 2000′s.

Bobby Grich (no longer on ballot after being dropped off in 1992 with 2.6% of the votes)

With only a career average of .266 and 224 HRs, it’s easy to see why Grich fell off the battle in 1992 before the Internet and Sabermetrics changed how many voters valued players.  Growing up in the latter part of the ‘Grich Era’, my sharpest memory of him was sharing a baseball card with Dwight Evans, Tony Armas, and Eddie Murray as the 1981 AL League Leaders in Home Runs.  Pretty impressive for a 2nd baseman I thought.  So did he deserve more HOF consideration?  Definitely.

His OPS+ of 125 was higher than Jeff Kent and, besides his above average power for a 2B, he had an impressive .371 OBP (a good eye balancing out his .266 AVG).  He was a strong fielder – netting 4 Gold Gloves  and a +70 in Total Fielding Runs Above Average.  He never made the top 5 in MVP voting but arguably should’ve won the 1981 MVP (led the league in OPS+).

Taking a look at his era (1970-1986), here are the number of seasons where a 2nd baseman (defined as 50% of games at 2B) had an OPS+ of 130 or more and had 450 plate appearances.  Note that the only other players who are near Grich are Hall of Famers.

• Joe Morgan – 7
• Bobby Grich – 5
• Rod Carew – 3 (note: Carew accomplished this in 1969 and 4 more times during this era playing 1B)
• Ryne Sandberg – 2 (note:  Sandberg accomplished this feat four more times from 1989-1992)
• Davey Johnson – 1
• Bill Madlock – 1
• Willie Randolph – 1
• Lou Whitaker – 1
• Steve Sax – 1

The argument seems to be not whether Bobby Grich was a Hall of Fame 2nd Baseman (because 125 OPS+ and strong fielding is HOF-worthy) but if he played long enough.  He only had 14 full seasons and his 3,056 times on base is a little bit under the 40th percentile of enshrined middle infielders.

Using the same test of “How many players at their position have greater OPS+ and Times on Base?” as I used for Trammell and Whitaker, Grich matches Whitaker’s number with 5 (Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Nap Lajoie).  Given that only one (Morgan) played post-WWII, I think Grich did enough to warrant HOF enshrinement.

Vote:  YES

Fun (and potentially fictional) anecdote:  Bobby Grich was heartbroken after the 1986 playoff loss to the Boston Red Sox and retired soon after.  The biggest tragedy wasn’t that he never won a World Series – it was that, unbeknownst to Grich, he had been given the role of “Queen Killer” in the Naked Gun script and his retirement led the writers to give the role to Reggie Jackson instead.

The rest of the players I’d vote ‘No’ but here are some quick notes:

Tony Fernandez – Solid hitter and fielder but had so-so power, OBP, and times on base.

Larry Doyle – Deadball Era player who played mostly with the Giants.  Earned an MVP and a #3 finish.  He retired to coach at age 33 when it appears he still had more in the tank (105 OPS+ his final year).  You can make a case he was more valuable than other players voted into the Hall from his era (see Johnny Evers).

Vern Stephens – It’s fitting he played some of his best years with the Red Sox as he was kind of the Nomar Garciaparra of his time.  One of the top hitters in the game from ages 21-30 with 5 top 7 MVP finishes and a ridiculous 3 year stretch where he 29+ HRs and 137+ RBIs.  After that, his career went off the cliff due to injuries – never reaching 400 plate appearances in a season again.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually gets voted in by the Veteran’s Committee given how impressive he was at his peak.

Del Pratt – Solid player in the 1910s and 1920s.  According to The Baseball Page, he was a good fielder too.  Without the longevity stats, hard to give him the thumbs up.

Jim Fregosi – While better known now as the ‘guy the Mets traded Nolan Ryan for’ and as a manager, Fregosi had some pop for a shortstop of his era.  He had 8 straight years of OPS+ above 108 (ages 22-28) and then injuries wore him down.

Dick McAuliffe – Playing 2B and SS for the Tigers from 1960-1975, McAuliffe was a Moneyballer.  Good power (15+ HRs 6 times) and good eye (had 100+ BBs twice).  His OBP (.343) looks a lot better than his BA (.247).  Like a lot of the above players, he just didn’t play long enough (or great enough) to warrant HOF enshrinement.

Jay Bell – Good but rarely great player for a number of years.  Had his career year at 33 when he exploded for 38 HRs.  I remember him being a good fielder but his stats indicate he was closer to average.

Chuck Knoblauch – Less you think that only 2B/SS of earlier eras fell off a cliff at 30, there’s the case of Chuck Knoblauch.  He put together some fantastic years from 23-30 – mostly with Minnesota (with 2 decent years with NYY).  His OBP was above .380 for 6 seasons including two seasons at .424 and .448.  He was solid on the basepaths too, netting 30+ SBs in 7 of those years.  But it seemed like all his skills deteriorated after 30.  He had an infamous case of the ‘yips’ and eventually had to be moved from 2B (where he had been a solid fielder) to LF.  After a ‘transition’ year with the Yanks and a single season with KC, Knoblauch was out of the game at 33.  With perhaps 2-3 more peak seasons and no ‘yips’, he could’ve definitely warranted HOF consideration.

Marty McManus – Another solid middle infielder from the pre-WWII era (1920-1934).  Never had anything resembling an MVP-like season but steady.  Career likely hurt by playing under belligerent manager Biff Tannen.

Davey Lopes – Lopes’ career was completely opposite from anyone else on the list.  Well, not completely opposite.  He did play baseball…but his first full MLB season was at 28(!) and he was putting up solid stats past the age of 40.  Lopes was well-known for his speed (averaging 50 SB per 162 G) and was very efficient at it (83% success rate).  He had a surprising amount of pop for his speed – topping 10 HRs on 7 occasions – but he surprisingly didn’t hit as many doubles as you’d think given that combination (never hit more than 26 in a season – Biggio averaged more than double that from 1998-1999).  Given that Lopes was just an average fielder and had just okay OBP, he’s not really an HOF consideration.  But I’d have liked him on one of my fantasy teams and it would’ve been interesting if he started younger and compiled more counting stats (note: based on minor league performance, he likely would’ve been a quality starter at 26 or 27).

Anyway, here is my ballot.  Click on the player names for my analysis:

Yes:  Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Bert Blyleven, Tommy John

Yes if they were actually on the ballot:  Dick Allen, Reggie Smith

No:  Obviously anyone not mentioned above.  But here are links to players that I reviewed in some depth…Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Harold Baines, Jack Morris

Apologies to Alan Trammell and Lee Smith as I didn’t get around to doing middle infielder and reliever posts.  My guess is that I’d have ended up voting ‘No’ on both.

And assuming that a lot more voters don’t forget Rickey, here is a little way to enjoy Rickey’s inevitably entertaining acceptance speech as well as our faux interview with him.

This third post focuses on starting pitchers – with Bert Blyleven (61.9%), Jack Morris (42.9%), and Tommy John (29.1%) the three with the highest % of votes from last year’s nomination.  Before we even look at their stats (and those of other non-Hall of Famer contemporaries), we need to set the criteria by which to judge HOF-worthiness.  The criteria by which starters have been judged has been preoccupied by counting stats – primarily Wins but also Strikeouts tend to be considered (think Ryan, Carlton, part of Blyleven’s argument).  Let’s first review modern pitchers in the HOF to determine what criteria seems to define excellence – with a bias towards those that factor out the bias of era, park, and team performance.

Here are the stats for starting pitchers with 200+ Wins since 1956 who are in the Hall of Fame (this factors out Koufax who had only 165 Wins):

The stats that best factor out the era/park/team performance biases are Quality Start % and ERA+.  Quality Start % is the percentage of starts that went 6+ Innings and gave up 3 or less runs.  While there is a bias here in that it was easier to give up 3 or less runs in ‘low offense’ years, it is a better statistic than Wins/Win % as it factors out team performance.  ERA+ or Adjusted ERA adjusts a pitcher’s ERA according to the pitcher’s ballpark and the ERA of the pitcher’s league (100 is league-average).  K/9 IP and K/BB ratio are good secondary measures to understand how dominant a pitcher was.  WHIP (Baserunners/9 IP) is a great stat but has to be used directionally since it isn’t adjusted like ERA+.

I created composite stats based on the top 1/3, middle 1/3 and low 1/3 of these players – e.g., if you divide these players into 3 tiers, 314 wins represents the floor of that 1st tier.

If we look at these starters, we see all have Quality Start %s over 60%.  ERA+ tends to be at least 15% above league average with Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, and Catfish Hunter being the exceptions.  If we look at just these two stats, it seems fair to say that the most questionable modern pitcher in the HOF is Catfish Hunter.  His ERA+ of 104 is near league-average and that’s with less post-peak innings pitched than most since arm troubles and diabetes forced him to retire at 33.  While Sutton’s ERA+ isn’t very impressive, his Quality Start % (aided perhaps by Dodger Stadium) looks mighty impressive.  And Nolan Ryan’s strikeouts and no-hitters add enough intangibles to look past the ERA+.

So based on the above, let’s go with a 60% Quality Start % and a ERA+ of 115 as the tentative bar with Wins and K’s as secondary arguments.

Now, before we look at the eligible players, let’s apply this criteria against the dominant generation of pitchers that just retired or are nearing retirement:

The pitchers that are HOF locks – Randy, Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, and Glavine – easily hurdle this 200 Win, 60% QS% and 115 ERA+.  I doubt I’ll be alone in marvelling at how impressive Curt Schilling and especially Kevin Brown stack up based on these criteria – if I’m still blogging in 5 years, expect me to be championing both their causes.  It’s also interesting how the two other players on this list discussed for HOF – Smoltz and Mussina – pass these criteria while the four below the mark (at least on QS%) are generally considered below the bar.  (Note:  For David Cone fans, he had 194 Wins, 120+ERA, and a 61.6% QS%.  Given the time lost at the tail end of his career due to his arm aneurysm, I can make an argument for him too…)

Okay, now let’s look at non-HOF pitchers since 1956 with 200+ Wins that are HOF-eligible (retired 5+ years):

One last chart before I go into each player.  Since Wins are such a huge part of the debate, I calculated a metric called ‘Adjusted Wins’.  For all I know, some sabermatrician did this already so I’m not going to say I invented it.  To calculate ‘Adjusted Wins’, I first created a metric called ‘Wins Per GS / QS%’.  This takes the % of starts that were Wins and then divides it by the % of starts that were Quality Starts.  I ran this against the HOF bunch and it came out to an average of 73.1% (e.g., they had about 3 Wins for every 4 Quality Starts).  I ran this against the HOF-eligible pitchers and it came out to 74.4%.  Based on this, I created an Adjusted Win metric that is Quality Starts * 74%.

This metric has two inherent flaws:

1. Not all Quality Starts are equal.  Giving up zero earned runs in 9 IP is much more Win-worthy than a 6 IP / 3 ER start
2. It doesn’t account for era or park bias (like ERA+).  A Quality Start in a low offense era in a pitcher’s park isn’t as Win-worthy as the same one in a high offense era in a hitter’s park.

Nevertheless, I think this provides guidance as to whether a pitcher ‘deserved’ more or less Wins.  The ‘Diff’ column is positive (blue) if the Adjusted Wins are higher than actual Wins and negative (red) if the Adjusted Wins are lower than actual.

Bert Blyleven – 62.6% of his starts were Quality Starts.  His ERA+ was 115.  His K/9 IP is better than 8 of the 13 HOFers listed earlier (bested by Ryan, Carlton, Gibson, Seaver, and Bunning) and everyone on this list except Chuck Finley and Mickey Lolich.  His Wins per GS / QS% is at 66.9% which is well below the 74% average – leading to an adjusted win total of 317 (or 30 above actual).  The only arguments I can see against Blyleven is that he didn’t ‘dominate’ his time – e.g.,  never won a Cy Young (top 7 four times) and only 2 All-Stars.  I could see using this type of argument to separate borderline candidates but Blyleven is comfortably above the thresholds set by the pitchers already in the HOF.

Vote:  YES

Fun facts/anecdotes:  The first and only great baseball player to be born in The Netherlands – unless you count Andruw Jones (who was born in Netherland Antilles).  In 1986-1987 with the Twins, he gave up 50 and 46 Home Runs – setting a single-season record (50) and having the third highest total (Jose Lima’s 48 is 2nd).  As an announcer, Blyleven loves to drop the f-bomb and, based on the adjacent pic, we imagine he has no compunction about dropping a Dutch oven on his sleeping partner – proof you can take a man out of the Netherlands but you can’t take the smell if you’re trapped under the sheets when that man farts.

Jack Morris – The arguments for Jack Morris generally boil down to the following:  ‘Best pitcher of the 1980′s”, “Three World Championships”, and “Big-game pitcher”.  I imagine just about all the nominated Hall-of-Fame pitchers have similar superlatives.  The only difference is that their statistics are clearly superior to Jack Morris.

Of those HOFers, the best comparison seems to be Catfish Hunter.  Both were workhorses on generally good teams (Catfish won 5 Championships).  Neither were big strikeout guys (Catfish 5.3/9 IP, Morris 5.8 K/ 9 IP).  Both had ERA+s that are dangerously close to league average (Catfish 104/Morris 105).  Catfish had a -6 in Adjusted Win Difference (won 6 more games than predicted) while Jack has a -34 (which is only bested by David Wells and Kenny Rogers among pitchers shown above).  I’d argue here that Catfish shouldn’t be in the HOF rather than Morris should be in the HOF.

Let’s go back and compare him vs. the other non-HOF pitchers.  His 56.4% QS ranks him near the bottom of the list.  As does his 105 ERA+.  And I already mentioned that his Win total is arguably as inflated than any other pitcher with 200 Wins since 1956.  I don’t know…maybe he ‘gutted’ out a lot of 7 IP / 4 ER run games.  But is there an argument that he had more ‘guts’ than the rest of these pitchers?

As for playoffs, his career playoff stats are 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA.  Good, yes.  Great, no.  Four of these wins came in the 1991 Twins ALCS and World Series victories – the most famous of course being his 1-0 10 inning shutout against Atlanta in the 7th game.  No doubt this was awesome and extremely memorable.  He was also great for the 1984 Tigers going 3-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA.

Looking at those two playoff runs, you could forgive that he lost his only start for Detroit @ Minnesota in the 1987 ALCS (8 IP / 6 ER).  But how about his 1992 playoff run for the Toronto Blue Jays – a team that gifted him 21 wins with his 4.04 ERA/102 ERA+?  In 4 starts across the ALCS and WS, he went 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA.  Toronto beat Atlanta 4 wins to 2 – Morris lost both of those games.

I’m not saying Jack Morris was a bad playoff pitcher – it is that he is remembered as better because of selective memory.  For comparison sake, Dave Stewart went 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA during his playoff stints with Oakland and Toronto.  John Smoltz went 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA.  David Cone went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA.  Roger Clemens – who isn’t particularly regarded for playoff dominance – has a 12-8 record with a 3.75 ERA.  Net-net, Morris was good in the postseason but not extraordinary (outside of that one start).

Lastly, I want to argue against the oft-repeated claim that he was the best pitcher of the 1980′s.  This ‘best in decade’ argument is arbitrary to begin with – Mark Grace has the most hits in the 1990′s!  Who cares?  You can take any ten year period and find stats like that – it doesn’t make it any more relevant.

In any case, while Morris had the most Wins in the 1980′s, he was not the best pitcher.  Dwight Gooden is clearly the best from 1984-1989 with a phenomenal 74.9% QS% and 132 ERA+.  Dave Stieb bests Jack Morris in QS% (60.7% to 59.9%) and crushes him in ERA+ (127 to 109).  Nolan Ryan, Fernando Valenzuela, Bob Welch, and John Tudor all best him in QS% and ERA+.

At the end of the day, an HOFer needs to exceed certain criteria in order to be enshrined.  Based on 60+ QS% and ERA+ 115+, Morris doesn’t really come close.  Based on all the other peripherals, he still doesn’t come close.  Just because there weren’t a lot of starters whose peak was between 1980-1985 doesn’t change the fact that Morris was a good-to-very good pitcher and NOT a HOF-caliber pitcher.

Vote:  NO

Fun facts/anecdotes:  Jack Morris was definitely the most feared pitcher in his day…..by females in the media – as evidenced by this Jack Morris 1990 locker room gem to Detroit Free Press writer Jennifer Frey:  “I don’t talk to women when I am naked unless they are on top of me or I am on top of them.”

Tommy John / Jim Kaat – Tommy John – best known for a surgery (that really should be named after Frank Jobe who actually invented it) – often gets lumped in with Jim Kaat as both have 280+ wins and unimpressive winning percentages.  On first glance, it’s easy to disregard them as pitchers who just pitched for a long time.

But let’s dig deeper.  Tommy John has the edge on QS % (61.6 to 58.4) and adjusted ERA (110 to 107).  Neither had impressive K/9 IP ratios (both below 5) or WHIPS (both above 1.25).  Tommy John finished in the top 5 in league ERA 6 times, 4 time All-Star, and 4 times finished in the top 10 for Cy Young.  Jim Kaat finished in the top 5 in league ERA 3 times, 3 time All-Star, and finished once in the top 10 for Cy Young.

The most surprising difference between the two are their Adjusted Win Difference – while Tommy John has a +31, Kaat has a -13.  In other words, if both won 74% of their Quality Starts, Tommy John would lead in wins 319 to 270.  While Tommy John notably pitched for the successful late 70′s Dodgers and 1979-1981 Yankees, he also had a number of years with mediocre to bad teams ranging from the White Sox, Indians, Angels, and even the Yanks (in his second tour of duty). Jim Kaat spent the bulk of his career with the Senators/Twins (1959-1972) which had a number of strong Killebrew/Oliva led teams (incidentally, Kaat only led the team in ERA once during that period – Jim Perry had the top team ERA for 4 of those years).

I think the strongest argument against Tommy John is his 110 ERA+ and unimpressive WHIP.  Given his low K-rate, these stats aren’t that surprising.  But Tommy John was above average for enough years (besides the 61.6% QS%, he had 18 years with 150+ IP and 100+ ERA+, 13 years with 150+ IP and 110+ ERA+) that I think he warrants HOF nomination.  It’s a close call, though.

As for Kaat, he falls below both the QS% and ERA+ thresholds and there isn’t much of a secondary argument for him that I can see.

Tommy John Vote:  YES

Jim Kaat Vote:  NO

Fun facts/anecdotes:  Only Nolan Ryan (27 seasons) has pitched more seasons than John (26) and Kaat (25).  Tommy John was successful in getting a surgery named after him but was unsuccessful in getting investors to finance his self-named port-o-potty.  Jim Kaat finished his 25-year playing career with a 25-year broadcasting career.  He plans on spending the next 25 years being that old guy by the Little League field who provides unsolicited and oft-ignored advice.

Rick Reuschel / Orel Hershiser – Who would have thought that Rick Reuschel would have the highest QS % out of this group?  Not me.  I just remember him on the Giants later in his career when he could go a whole game throwing a variety of mediocre fastballs and still win games.  But there he is at the top with Orel Hershiser.

So both these guys pass the 60+ QS% threshold and by a significant amount (63.7% Reuschel, 62.9% Hershiser).  That’s at or above Steve Carlton!  In addition, both benefit from the Adjusted Win analysis that ekes up their Win totals to 249 and 217, respectively.

Their ERA+s fall just below the mark at 114 (Reuschel) and 112 (Hershiser).  Their peripherals are just so-so – both had high WHIPS (greater than 1.25) and average K rates (below 6.0).

At the end of the day, I’d say both of these guys were very good pitchers and probably underrated (especially Reuschel) but fall below HOF-caliber.  While Tommy John had 300+ Adjusted Wins, neither of these guys crack 250.  If you’re going to go in with a ERA+ under 115, you at least need longevity on your side.  For comparison’s sake, Tommy John had 700 GS.  Blyleven had 685.  Reuschel was at 529.  Hershiser only 466.

Vote:  NO

The Rest – No one else passes the QS % and ERA+ test.  No one besides Tanana even passes 250 Adjusted Wins.  All very good pitchers but none appear HOF-worthy.