Fantasy Baseball Advice

Finally Jim Mora and Robert Horry will pay attention to their fantasy baseball teams.  Last week got all flummoxed with all that Irene business. Not my fault the patent is still pending on my weather machine. This week let’s hope we are back to some sense of normalcy.  Wait, off course we are…  Strasburg is back!  It’s like the Beatles playing Shea in ‘63.  No, not really, but it’s still exciting.  Some playoff systems lock their rosters so if your reading this to just read this, thanks for being a faithful reader.  Others, start as many as you can.  Stats are stats.  I would rather go down fighting than sit there like a bump on a log.  Well, good luck this week in both the fantasy baseball playoffs and the first week of fantasy football.  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

9/7
Bruce Chen @ Oak – Moscoso
R.A. Dickey @ Fla – Hensley
Joe Saunders @Col – Millwood
Aaron Harang vs. SF – Cain

9/8
Mike Minor @ NYM – Gee
Luke Hochevar @ Sea – Vargas

9/9
Mark Buehrle vs. Cle – Gomez
Bud Norris vs. Was – Hernandez
Brandon McCarthy @ Tex – Lewis
Brett Cecil vs. Bal – Guthrie

Henderson Alvarez (Bos vs. Beckett, Bal vs. Reyes) Anyone who reads my posts knows I love me some ground ball pitchers, sop them up with a biscuit.  Temptation is there to sit him against the Sawx, but you do what you do.

Jake Westbrook (Mil vs. Wolf, Atl vs. Hudson) I am going to run out of biscuits this week.  Pitching better, I wanna pat him on the head and say it’s too late for the Cards, but I hate breaking peoples’ spirits.

James McDonald (Hou vs. Sosa, Fla vs. Vazquez) Return of the Mack…. Yes, I did.  Wow, that was my jam when I was crossing over out of my high top fade days.  His WHIP makes me do the sour pickle face, home starts make me do the pee pee dance but in a good way.

Fausto Carmona (Det vs. Porcello, @Chw vs. Stewart) His name translated means unsolvable enigma.  That’s really not true, but it was fun to type.  You know his whole story, he has been on this weekly post more than anyone.  Buy two-ply just in case.

John Lannan (LAD vs. Kuroda, Hou vs. Rodriguez) Home sweet home.  ERA is way lower and he needs to keep the place clean for when Stras’ pitches.

Josh Collmenter (@Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) Start all D-Backs, no matter when, no matter where.  That’s my new theory.  It has replaced “eatin’ ain’t cheatin.”

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Capuano, @Pit vs. McDonald) I don’t know who is more of an agita inducer, him or Fausto.  Could be the Montezuma’s revenge kicking in.  Ks are always nice and I would always like to play for my great grandfather.

Henry Sosa (@Pit vs. McDonald, @Was vs. Strasburg) I really wanted to work both Stras’ starts in here, but left Ted Lilly at the bagel store.  27-year-old rookie basically getting by on deception.  Is this week’s “it’s 2 o’clock and I don’t want to sleep alone special.”

Felipe Paulino (@Oak vs. Harden, @Sea vs. Beavan) I was having a debate with a friend, who would be a better love therapist Phil Collins or REO Speedwagon?  You’re asking yourself,  “How does this relate to Felipe Paulino?”  It doesn’t but thanks for reading and now you’re thinking of Phil Collins.  Mission accomplished.

Wade Miley (@Col vs. Cook, SD vs. Stauffer) I like anyone who plays for the Snakes right now.  Team is gritty with neck tattoos and a gruff disposition.  Sounds like I was reading a profile off of American Grizzly.

Chris Capuano (@Fla vs. Vazquez, CHC vs. Wells) You’re welcome, I gave you 11 guys this week.  Mainly because I can’t count.

I started writing this week and kept getting distracted by the notion of a “tease” starting pitcher.  These are guys we all see available every week at the top of our waiver wire.  For some reason they hop on and off rosters, faster than the Easter Bunny.  They all for some reason have an attractive quality, whether it be a great matchup, a previous decent start or just a general boyish quality that we find irresistible.  We see the numbers they produce and sometimes numbers tell a different story than what really is going on for fantasy purposes.  In the end, it comes down to picking a starting pitcher in a must win week is the same place that $30 steak goes to digest.  So with the eve of playoffs upon us, here are the lower end 2 start options for the week.  Good luck and happy fantasying. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change, especially with Irene running havoc.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/31
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan
Chris Capuano vs. Fla – Hensley
Ted Lilly vs. SD – LeBlanc
James McDonald @ Hou – Happ
Josh Collmenter vs. Col – Rogers

9/1
Fausto Carmona vs. Oak – Gonzalez
Luis Perez @ Bal – Matusz

9/2
Bruce Chen vs. Cle – Masterson
Guillermo Moscoso vs. Sea – pineda
Jeff Karstens @CHC – Dempster

Charlie Morton (@Hou vs. Sosa, @CHC vs. Wells) Was pitching well up until Thursday.  3 ER in previous 29 innings.  Jersey guys always get a little extra juice from me, hey, I’m a homer. Go root for your own state.

Brett Cecil (@Bal vs. Reyes, @NYY vs. Sabathia) We all root for the glasses, whether we admit it or not we do.  Is a typical tease fantasy pitcher, shows the goods, does bad gets dropped, rinse and repeat for next scheduled start.

Wade Davis (@Tor vs. Romero, Bal vs. Simon) ERA right at 3 in last 4 starts, and showing better K rate. Pitches better at the Trop and I gamble more at the Trop, so the Baltimore start looks like a winner to me. This lesson in transitive theory is brought to you by Gamblers Anonymous.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, Phi vs. Hamels) If consistency were pants, he would be wearing cargo jorts. Recently moved into the top 30 all-time in K’s, congrats.  We come for the K’s and cry when we get everything else.

Livan Hernandez (@Atl vs. Lowe, NYM vs. Pelfrey) I don’t know if anyone watches his starts, but he is fun to watch. Throws slower than his jersey number.  Is the Latino Houdini of pitchers, better known  to those in the know as El Mago.

Doug Fister (KC vs. Francis, CHW vs. Buehrle) Since trade he is 3-1, with an ERA in the mid 3’s.  Toss that record out the window, make sure the window is open first, genius.  It’s not next year but a full year in Detriot with that offense and he is a 15 game winner.

Brandon McCarthy (@Cle vs. Tomlin, Sea vs. Vargas) Loved his work in Mannequin.  Is in the growing trend this week of tease pitchers, cusp rosterable guys that matchup-wise are more attractive.

Homer Bailey (Phi vs. Worley, STL vs. Garcia) The Iliad, a funny catchphrase and a civil rights activist.  See Homers have actually done something good in history.  What you see is what you get, he isn’t the former top pitching spec we all want him to be.  Sorry, I hear hearts breaking all over the Midwest.

Derek Lowe (Was vs. Livan, LA vs. Kuroda) Team is 20 games over .500 and he has 23% of the losses.  Yeah, that sounds awesome from a fantasy perspective.  So grab your sneakers and chase those wins.

Blake Beavan (Ana vs. Pineiro, @Oak vs. Cahill) On here for 1 reason, he has beat both these teams previously.  Tends to get beat up by good hitting teams, which for the less in the know means his secondary pitches aren’t inspiring.  Doesn’t K enough for full fantasy usefulness.

I hate regression, my hairline does it every day. Though subtly, like a ninja assassin, as it mocks me in the mirror when I’m brushing my teeth. Pitcher regression is a known entity. We all assume it will happen, but when and where is the big query. It seems to have hit all the guys I write about every week at once. So like the cup in Indiana Jones, choose, but choose wisely. As you may end up a pile of dust, with crappy peripherals and a cat looking at you like you’re a great place to lay claim. I can’t tell you to not chase wins, because we all do it. So just be cautious is all I’m saying and use knowledge that you have over others to guide your team from here on out. Good luck this week and any questions you may have drop me a comment. (Please be aware that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/24
Javier Vazquez vs. Cin – Arroyo
Livan Hernandez vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Hammel vs. Hou – Rodriguez

8/25
Brandon Beachy @ CHC – Garza
John Lannan vs. Ari – Miley
Brett Cecil vs. KC – Francis

8/26
Josh Collmenter vs. SD – Leblanc
Esmil Rogers @ LAD – Lilly
Randy Wolf vs. CHC – Lopez

Jeff Karstens (Mil vs. Greinke, @StL vs. Carpenter) Like most Pirates, he walked the regression plank. Tough matchups this week are making me look both ways before crossing the street, cause knowing is half the battle…GI Joe.

Brian Duensing (Bal vs. Simon, Det vs. Penny) Not a fan of the home field advantage. Has RP eligibility coupled with some sweet matchups. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Joe Saunders (@Was vs. Detwiler, SD vs. Harang) Attention D-backs fans, yeah, all 6 of you.  Get in close so you can hear me. Starting game 3 of the NLDS, Joe Saunders….crickets. Fantasy wise he is crap, real life he is a scrapper. Scrappiness wins out this week with some decent matchups and a hot team.

Erik Bedard (@Tex vs. Wilson, Oak vs. Moscoso) Still chasing that first Sawx win. He is getting close to what we want/expect him to be. A kitty cat? That comment brought to you by my 3 year old niece.

Paul Maholm (Mil vs. Estrada, StL vs. Lohse) Watching him regress is like watching Journey without Steve Perry. Expect nothing. He hit the wall, hit it hard and is down for the waiver wire count.

Jason Vargas (@Cle vs. Carmona, CHW vs. Danks) Stat-wise where he is right now is where he should have been all year. Barely serviceable and an occasional spot start based on hot streak. It’s your call, but I think I’m heading on down the highway here.

Bruce Chen (@Tor vs. Morrow, @Cle vs. Masterson) Let’s see, we wouldn’t pick him up for starts versus the Yankees, Tigers and Pale Hose. I wonder how those starts turned out? My inner Bruce Chen is telling me to gamble here. Finished last year strong also, I can’t make this stuff up.

Bud Norris (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Cain) How is a pitcher with a high K-rate, ERA in the mid 3’s not owned everywhere? Look at the stats, they look like Gio, but without the Latin rhythm and paltry BB/9 rate.

Nate Eovaldi (@StL vs. Carpenter, Col vs. Chacin) Unfamiliarity may be guiding his ship. Features a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball, above average curve and a passable change. Walk rate is the death march to any young starter.

Fausto Carmona (Sea vs. Vargas, KC vs. Duffy) Frustrating. You watch him pitch and he looks unhittable one inning, next inning he is throwing underhand and rolling around the infield in Stephen Hawking’s wheel chair.

We have officially come to the overlap week. It happens every year when baseball begins to wind down and the whole affection for drafting takes over with football. You think fantasy baseball websites are watered down, football takes that to a new level. So why go anywhere else but the place where you come for the best fantasy baseball advice?  So here is my shameless plug to check out the fantasy football section of Razzball.  Guys over there are simply getting it done. So back to the lecture at hand, the playoffs are getting closer and innings limits are definitely coming into play. Pick your battles wisely with starting pitching, start your top 2 guys every start and match up with the other 3-4. Dump anyone you think is questionable or you don’t trust and pick up a reliable RP with good peripherals. So onto the guys who will help you in no innings limit leagues. It’s a rough week as a lot of the low-end guys face-off against good teams. Good luck. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/17
Blake Beavan vs. Tor – Morrow
Fausto Carmona @ CHW – Humber
Brandon McCarthy vs. Bal – Simon

8/18
Luke Hochevar vs. Bos – Lackey
Chris Volstad @ SD – Stauffer

8/19
Rich Harden vs. Tor – Cecil
Mike Pelfrey vs. Mil – Pelfrey
Phil Hughes @ Min – Slowey

R.A. Dickey (@SD vs. Harang, Mil vs. Gallardo) Look past the record.  No, not that far. His run support is garbage. He eats innings and hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a month. Strikeouts are hit or miss, the “you could do worse” starter of the week.

Danny Duffy (NYY vs. Nova, Bos vs. Lester) Goods are there, they are just concealed by the walk rate. K’s are decent. Two tough lineups this week is not so good. Both teams take a ton of pitches, don’t expect anything longer than 5 innings pitched in either start.

Felipe Paulino (NYY vs. Burnett, Bos vs. Wakefield) Two Royals in the same write up means the apocalypse is nigh. Blah blah blah see Danny Duffy. Has allowed only 4 ER in his last 18 innings, congrats.

James McDonald (STL vs. Westbrook, Cin vs. Leake) Every time I see his name I start humming the Big Mac song in my head. Check the home/away splits as it may sway your decision here. Pickles, onions on a… Likes to give up homers on a sesame seed bun.

Wade Davis (@Bos vs. Bedard, Sea vs. Pineda) Well worth the extension he signed. Yeah, and I look good in my wife beater from Marshalls. The ideal guy you want your opponent for the week to pick up. Just don’t tell him I said so.

Josh Collmenter (@Phi vs. Lee, @Atl vs. Hanson) I jumped off the Pirates ship and landed in the desert. So he regressed some but he wasn’t a high 2 ERA guy anyways. Matchups look rough, I would prolly visit this destination with no other options.

Randy Wolf (LA vs. Lilly, @NYM vs. Capuano) Pitching a lot better. Prolly was dropped three or more times this year. Take advantage when the season’s time is getting thin. A start from a winning team is a pretty nice option to have.

Guillermo Moscoso (Bal vs. Bergesen, Tor vs. Mills) I like Bill. Great matchups, decent stuff, low BAA, 2 home starts… Shall I keep going or do you get my point?  Si or no si?

Henderson Alvarez (@Sea vs. Pineda, @Oak vs. Gonzalez) Besides coincidental stuff that dictate a pitchers worth from week to week. I love me some groundball pitchers. Has 3 above average pitches and pitches in the mid 90’s, more of pitch to contact than swing and miss guy.

Mike Leake (@Was vs. Detwiler, @Pit vs. McDonald) Freak-A… Yeah, you thought you would get through this week without a Petey Pablo reference, you thought wrong. North Carolina come on and raise up… Okay, I’m done now. I swear. An underappreciated ERA under 2 for the last 5 starts.

This will be my first week playing fantasy baseball without my hero, Hightower from Police Academy. God speed, big man. So the deadline came and went. Pretty unexciting stuff from a fantasy prospective. The fake baseball trade deadline is approaching by week’s end, time to analyze that roster of yours and ask “Can I make a run and if so where and with what guys?” It’s also important to think of next year for keeper leagues, take a chance on a guy who someone may value less for next year than you may. Gambles in fantasy are what pay the bills, folks. So good luck on getting your roster ready for playoff battle. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and match-ups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/10
Erik Bedard @ Min – Blackburn
Mark Buehrle @ Bal – Hunter
Mike Leake vs. Col – Nicasio

8/11
Cory Luebke @ NYM – Niese
Joe Saunders vs. Hou – Myers
Jeff Niemann vs. KC – Duffy

8/12
Dillon Gee @ Ari – Kennedy
Chris Narveson vs. Pit – Maholm
Brandon McCarthy vs. Tex – Wilson

Jason Marquis (Hou vs. Lyles, NYM vs. Capuano) First impressions are everything, 7 ER against the team you’re trying to catch. I do like him slightly better in Arizona, weaker hitting division, better ROS schedule.

Brett Cecil (Oak vs. Harden , Ana vs. Haren) Since his return from Disgraceful List, 3-3, 3.38 ERA and 41 K’s in 8 starts. Shows glimpses of fantasy goodness, is a next year fave for me (I said that preseason this year also) even if it’s through rose-colored glasses.

Doug Fister (@Cle vs. Masterson, @Bal vs. Britton) Should be owned! I can sit here and throw numbers at you, but I don’t want to hold your hand. Holding hands is weird for strangers. Fister is the centerfold for Sabermetric Monthly for August.

Philip Humber (@Bal vs. Britton, KC vs. Francis) Ever wonder what it really feels like to hit the fantasy wall? Well, Phil is waiting to take your calls. May get you wins this week but at the expense of 5+ ERA.

Charlie Morton (@SF vs. Vogelsong, @Mil vs. Marcum) The Pirates’ ship is sinking.  Man the life rafts!  Is a WHIP disaster and, like his team, seems to be running on fumes. Is the Hydrox to Doc’s Oreo.

Esmil Rogers (@Cin vs. Willis, @Stl vs. Jackson) Needs to build some quality innings, but potential for a back end starter could be there. Any youngin’ needs to work on control so be leery of the WHIP abuse. Remember that love Nicasio got for like a day.  Yeah, they may be fantasy clones.

Chris Capuano (SD vs. LeBlanc, @Ari vs. Marquis) ERA is a little high for everyday use, but I like this guy. He has grit or moxy or groxy. Hey, Dr. Seuss made a living making up words. Though drugs were a lot stronger back then.

Homer Bailey (Col vs. Hammel, SD vs. Stauffer) Some people like him, others come to his defense in the comments. See start on 7/28/11. Any questions? If you could ever just be whelmed, Homer would take you there.

Mike Pelfrey (SD vs. Stauffer, @Ari vs. Hudson) You ever get in a groove while listening to Pandora? Then all of a sudden they sneak a Brian Adams song in there. Well Pelfrey to me is that song.  Skip and then listen to an ad from Pauly D.

Dontrelle Willis (Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) I wish fun was a fantasy category, D-Train would go first overall. Will never really be a fantasy asset, which makes me sad. Dispelling all rumors that I was the Gooch.