Fantasy Baseball Advice

So it comes to this, the final countdown.  Cue Lou Gramm and let that blaze through your head as you listen to that classic from Foreigner.  If you read this in tune with that song, it’s almost like the Dark Side of the Moon/Wizard of Oz experience.  You have to read fast though.   I can’t believe the season is basically over as it seemed to fly by and I guess I missed all the fun.  This week is extended by 3 additional days so basically every pitcher you can think of goes twice during championship week. So there are tons of options and I just pulled my top 15 favorites based on pitching match-up favorability and my general guess work.  So as you read this, pitchers are in order of how they will appear in their first start of the week. Starting with 9/19. Check back mid-week as we will add a contribution for the last couple of games.  Good luck until Thursday.  Questions, comments or rants are greatly accepted.  (Pitchers and matchups will almost certainly occur this week due to teams clinching and whatnot.)

Kevin Millwood (SD vs. Luebke, @Hou vs. Norris) Was the starting pitching version of a pogo stick this year.  Found decent starts finally with his 4th team.  Last 5 starts ERA under 3.20.  Team scores runs, prolly better to score chicks, just my humble opine.

Mike Minor (@Fla vs. Nolasco, @Was vs. Wang) I was trying to get him to jump out of the birthday cake for Grey.  Unfortunately, he has a scheduling conflict.  Jim J. Bullock it is.   Sorry, homey.  Previous 3 starts 3.24 ERA, with some decent strikeout potential.

Jeremy Guthrie (@Bos vs. Lackey, @Det vs. Verlander) Last 5 starts, 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 30 K’s.  If his peak value wasn’t before the season started, it may be now when you need him the most. Maybe he was all on board the “Suck for Luck” campaign and forgot that he only plays football.

Jason Vargas (Min vs. Hendriks, Oak vs. McCarthy) Needs the Fister treatment.  No, not that kind of stuff.  Sicko.  A change of scenery makes his numbers look prettier.   Gets beat up once and awhile, but are we scared of the Twins and A’s offensive juggernauts?

Randy Wells (Mil vs. Marcum, @SD vs. Latos) Last 10 starts 6-1 with a 3.15 ERA only downfall is just 38 K’s.  Has pitched a lot better than a lot of sexier names that you prolly already roster over the last 30 days.  Just the facts.  And then Thursday happened and made what I just said irrelevant.

Bud Norris (@Cin vs. Bailey, Col vs. Millwood) I know Morrow gets more love but is 2 more K/9 more important than an uptick of 1.6 in ERA?  Not so much that it would lead to an almost double ownership.  I guess if I played for a loser I would go unnoticed too.

Chris Narveson (@CHC vs. Garza, Pit vs. Ohlendorf)  Starting, bullpen, back to starting.  Brewers will prolly have clinched by his first start.  When you dig deep, is it really horrible to have a pitcher from a winning team as your option?

Dana Eveland (SF vs. Vogelsong, @Ari vs. Hudson)  I could be wrong, but didn’t he star as MacGyver’s bald sidekick?  Getting by on looks, charm and a spoonful of who the heck is this guy? Tiny numbers in first 2 starts, you can roll the dice when I’m done playing click-clack.

Drew Pomeranz (@Hou vs. Myers,  @SF vs. Bumgarner) Features a plus fastball and curve, changeup needs work.  Reminds me a lot of Joe Saunders.  2 decent matchups as he fights for a rotation spot and fantasy formidability next year.

Henderson Alvarez (Ana vs. Santana, @CHW vs. Buehrle) A 3 ERA and a small WHIP from a groundball pitcher is almost as good as Reading Rainbow being back on the air.  Oh, it is.  Righteous.  It’s in a book, so take a look. Sorry got caught up in LeVar Burton’s goodness.

Philip Humber (Cle vs. Gomez, Tor vs. McGowan) Last 2 starts since coming off DL have been better than I expected.  That much needed time off looks like it refueled him for the faux baseball playoffs.

Jake Westbrook (NYM vs. Capuano, @Hou vs. Sosa)  Consistently is a 6 inning 3 ER pitcher, to hope for anything better would be like leaving Santa vegetables instead of cookies and then wonder why all your presents are broken.

Eric Surkamp (@Ari vs. Collmenter, Col vs. White) Man, that Barry Zito contract looks awesome right now.  Low K potential and lack of team run support hurts him some.  Any time I don’t have support I get all saggy, that ad brought to you by Spanx.

Felipe Paulino (@CHW vs. Stewart,  @Min vs. Diamond) We come for the Ks, that is all.  Now dance, monkey, as I turn this organ grinder.  In retrospect, it would be awesome if that monkey could do The Dougie.

Brett Myers (Col vs. Pomeranz, STL vs. Carpenter) Really useful right now, until he starts dating your sister and you’re like, “Wait a second,  I don’t want you dating my sister.”  1 ER in each of his last 4 appearances.  Would have liked to see him dealt to a contender, but there’s always next year.

The playoffs roar on.  I am calling this week’s entry the De-Fib kit for your playoff hopes, the in case of emergency break glass list.  Well how bad could it honestly be,  if you’re still alive in the playoffs or are still trying to steal those last few points.  It’s a better alternative than being out of the playoffs and looking forward to fantasy hockey.  Shameless cross promotion is never a bad thing.  The fringe benefits are awesome, as I received a signed picture of Dick Button and a glass of water with a note attached saying it was ice from the Montreal Forum.  So continue the good fight as the playoffs continue on, comments or pitch or ditch questions are always welcome.  Good luck. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

9/14
Luke Hochevar vs. Min – Pavano
Wade Davis @ Bal – Guthrie
Chris Narveson vs. Col – Millwood

9/15
Randy Wells @ Cin – Bailey
Chris Capuano vs. Was – Milone

9/16
Jeff Locke @ LA vs. – Kuroda
Wade Miley @ SD – Stauffer
Derek Lowe vs. NYM – Batista
Philip Humber @ KC – Paulino
John Lannan vs. Fla – Sanchez

Brett Myers (Phi vs. Oswalt, @CHC vs. Dempster) Two consecutive 1 ER outings in a row, technically 3 if you count the one in relief.  It’s Houston so you need to look on the brighter side when looking at stats.  Man, that possible change to the AL can’t come fast enough.

Eric Surkamp (SD vs. Harang, @Col vs. Pomeranz) The Giants are the Krylon of baseball.  If they score any runs pray for a rain shortened game.  Back end of the rotation potential type for next year.

Dillon Gee (Was vs. Wang, @Atl vs. Beachy) The second most popular Dylan/Dillon in NY next to the candy bar. Which if you haven’t been is the diabetic purgatory.  Faces Wang and at a Beachy — sounds like Sandy Hook.

Bruce Chen (Min vs. Hendriks, CHW vs. Peavy) Which Bruce shows up this week, the one that we make fun of or the one we get made fun of for using.  My inner Bruce Chen is flying a kite and whistling “Magic” by the Cars.  Spotty with a chance of bed wetting, is my professional fantasy scouting report of Chen.

Brad Lincoln (STL vs. Lohse, @LA vs. Eveland) In the playoffs see a penny pick it up, all the day your fantasy team may suck.  Previous 6 inning shutout of the Cards helps his case, LA just plain sucking is the Mrs. Butterworth’s on top. Random unrelated fact of the day, Mrs. Butterworth’s first name, Joy. You’re welcome.

R.A. Dickey (Was vs. Detwiler, @Atl vs. Hudson) I am not ashamed to say that I like me some Dickey this week.  Why is everyone laughing? Kanye likes the fish version, why can’t I like the baseball version?

Guillermo Moscoso (Ana vs. Williams, Det vs. Verlander) Billy the not so Nino.  People everywhere prolly added him right after his last start.  Good for them for being so astute and having zero real friends but 400 facebook friends.

Chris Volstad (@Atl vs. Beachy, @Was vs. Wang) Even in Norway he is barely usable.  I want to root for him because he has some potential.  He suffers from “one inning-itis”.  Also visits Sandy Hook this week.

Joe Saunders (@LA vs. Billingsley, @SD vs. Harang) Anyone remember when he was crying about being traded out of Anaheim. I asked Justin Morneau if he remembered and he was too busy trying to velcro his shoes to comment.

Zach Britton (TB vs. Niemann, Ana vs. Pineiro) Throw the Yankees start out the window, because we wouldn’t have used him anyways.  Has elite groundball pitcher stuff.  Unfortunately hits can come via the groundball, that piece of genius brought to you by the World Wide Leader.

Finally Jim Mora and Robert Horry will pay attention to their fantasy baseball teams.  Last week got all flummoxed with all that Irene business. Not my fault the patent is still pending on my weather machine. This week let’s hope we are back to some sense of normalcy.  Wait, off course we are…  Strasburg is back!  It’s like the Beatles playing Shea in ‘63.  No, not really, but it’s still exciting.  Some playoff systems lock their rosters so if your reading this to just read this, thanks for being a faithful reader.  Others, start as many as you can.  Stats are stats.  I would rather go down fighting than sit there like a bump on a log.  Well, good luck this week in both the fantasy baseball playoffs and the first week of fantasy football.  (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

9/7
Bruce Chen @ Oak – Moscoso
R.A. Dickey @ Fla – Hensley
Joe Saunders @Col – Millwood
Aaron Harang vs. SF – Cain

9/8
Mike Minor @ NYM – Gee
Luke Hochevar @ Sea – Vargas

9/9
Mark Buehrle vs. Cle – Gomez
Bud Norris vs. Was – Hernandez
Brandon McCarthy @ Tex – Lewis
Brett Cecil vs. Bal – Guthrie

Henderson Alvarez (Bos vs. Beckett, Bal vs. Reyes) Anyone who reads my posts knows I love me some ground ball pitchers, sop them up with a biscuit.  Temptation is there to sit him against the Sawx, but you do what you do.

Jake Westbrook (Mil vs. Wolf, Atl vs. Hudson) I am going to run out of biscuits this week.  Pitching better, I wanna pat him on the head and say it’s too late for the Cards, but I hate breaking peoples’ spirits.

James McDonald (Hou vs. Sosa, Fla vs. Vazquez) Return of the Mack…. Yes, I did.  Wow, that was my jam when I was crossing over out of my high top fade days.  His WHIP makes me do the sour pickle face, home starts make me do the pee pee dance but in a good way.

Fausto Carmona (Det vs. Porcello, @Chw vs. Stewart) His name translated means unsolvable enigma.  That’s really not true, but it was fun to type.  You know his whole story, he has been on this weekly post more than anyone.  Buy two-ply just in case.

John Lannan (LAD vs. Kuroda, Hou vs. Rodriguez) Home sweet home.  ERA is way lower and he needs to keep the place clean for when Stras’ pitches.

Josh Collmenter (@Col vs. Rogers, SD vs. LeBlanc) Start all D-Backs, no matter when, no matter where.  That’s my new theory.  It has replaced “eatin’ ain’t cheatin.”

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Capuano, @Pit vs. McDonald) I don’t know who is more of an agita inducer, him or Fausto.  Could be the Montezuma’s revenge kicking in.  Ks are always nice and I would always like to play for my great grandfather.

Henry Sosa (@Pit vs. McDonald, @Was vs. Strasburg) I really wanted to work both Stras’ starts in here, but left Ted Lilly at the bagel store.  27-year-old rookie basically getting by on deception.  Is this week’s “it’s 2 o’clock and I don’t want to sleep alone special.”

Felipe Paulino (@Oak vs. Harden, @Sea vs. Beavan) I was having a debate with a friend, who would be a better love therapist Phil Collins or REO Speedwagon?  You’re asking yourself,  “How does this relate to Felipe Paulino?”  It doesn’t but thanks for reading and now you’re thinking of Phil Collins.  Mission accomplished.

Wade Miley (@Col vs. Cook, SD vs. Stauffer) I like anyone who plays for the Snakes right now.  Team is gritty with neck tattoos and a gruff disposition.  Sounds like I was reading a profile off of American Grizzly.

Chris Capuano (@Fla vs. Vazquez, CHC vs. Wells) You’re welcome, I gave you 11 guys this week.  Mainly because I can’t count.

I started writing this week and kept getting distracted by the notion of a “tease” starting pitcher.  These are guys we all see available every week at the top of our waiver wire.  For some reason they hop on and off rosters, faster than the Easter Bunny.  They all for some reason have an attractive quality, whether it be a great matchup, a previous decent start or just a general boyish quality that we find irresistible.  We see the numbers they produce and sometimes numbers tell a different story than what really is going on for fantasy purposes.  In the end, it comes down to picking a starting pitcher in a must win week is the same place that $30 steak goes to digest.  So with the eve of playoffs upon us, here are the lower end 2 start options for the week.  Good luck and happy fantasying. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change, especially with Irene running havoc.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/31
Brandon Beachy vs. Was – Lannan
Chris Capuano vs. Fla – Hensley
Ted Lilly vs. SD – LeBlanc
James McDonald @ Hou – Happ
Josh Collmenter vs. Col – Rogers

9/1
Fausto Carmona vs. Oak – Gonzalez
Luis Perez @ Bal – Matusz

9/2
Bruce Chen vs. Cle – Masterson
Guillermo Moscoso vs. Sea – pineda
Jeff Karstens @CHC – Dempster

Charlie Morton (@Hou vs. Sosa, @CHC vs. Wells) Was pitching well up until Thursday.  3 ER in previous 29 innings.  Jersey guys always get a little extra juice from me, hey, I’m a homer. Go root for your own state.

Brett Cecil (@Bal vs. Reyes, @NYY vs. Sabathia) We all root for the glasses, whether we admit it or not we do.  Is a typical tease fantasy pitcher, shows the goods, does bad gets dropped, rinse and repeat for next scheduled start.

Wade Davis (@Tor vs. Romero, Bal vs. Simon) ERA right at 3 in last 4 starts, and showing better K rate. Pitches better at the Trop and I gamble more at the Trop, so the Baltimore start looks like a winner to me. This lesson in transitive theory is brought to you by Gamblers Anonymous.

Javier Vazquez (NYM vs. Pelfrey, Phi vs. Hamels) If consistency were pants, he would be wearing cargo jorts. Recently moved into the top 30 all-time in K’s, congrats.  We come for the K’s and cry when we get everything else.

Livan Hernandez (@Atl vs. Lowe, NYM vs. Pelfrey) I don’t know if anyone watches his starts, but he is fun to watch. Throws slower than his jersey number.  Is the Latino Houdini of pitchers, better known  to those in the know as El Mago.

Doug Fister (KC vs. Francis, CHW vs. Buehrle) Since trade he is 3-1, with an ERA in the mid 3’s.  Toss that record out the window, make sure the window is open first, genius.  It’s not next year but a full year in Detriot with that offense and he is a 15 game winner.

Brandon McCarthy (@Cle vs. Tomlin, Sea vs. Vargas) Loved his work in Mannequin.  Is in the growing trend this week of tease pitchers, cusp rosterable guys that matchup-wise are more attractive.

Homer Bailey (Phi vs. Worley, STL vs. Garcia) The Iliad, a funny catchphrase and a civil rights activist.  See Homers have actually done something good in history.  What you see is what you get, he isn’t the former top pitching spec we all want him to be.  Sorry, I hear hearts breaking all over the Midwest.

Derek Lowe (Was vs. Livan, LA vs. Kuroda) Team is 20 games over .500 and he has 23% of the losses.  Yeah, that sounds awesome from a fantasy perspective.  So grab your sneakers and chase those wins.

Blake Beavan (Ana vs. Pineiro, @Oak vs. Cahill) On here for 1 reason, he has beat both these teams previously.  Tends to get beat up by good hitting teams, which for the less in the know means his secondary pitches aren’t inspiring.  Doesn’t K enough for full fantasy usefulness.

I hate regression, my hairline does it every day. Though subtly, like a ninja assassin, as it mocks me in the mirror when I’m brushing my teeth. Pitcher regression is a known entity. We all assume it will happen, but when and where is the big query. It seems to have hit all the guys I write about every week at once. So like the cup in Indiana Jones, choose, but choose wisely. As you may end up a pile of dust, with crappy peripherals and a cat looking at you like you’re a great place to lay claim. I can’t tell you to not chase wins, because we all do it. So just be cautious is all I’m saying and use knowledge that you have over others to guide your team from here on out. Good luck this week and any questions you may have drop me a comment. (Please be aware that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

8/24
Javier Vazquez vs. Cin – Arroyo
Livan Hernandez vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Hammel vs. Hou – Rodriguez

8/25
Brandon Beachy @ CHC – Garza
John Lannan vs. Ari – Miley
Brett Cecil vs. KC – Francis

8/26
Josh Collmenter vs. SD – Leblanc
Esmil Rogers @ LAD – Lilly
Randy Wolf vs. CHC – Lopez

Jeff Karstens (Mil vs. Greinke, @StL vs. Carpenter) Like most Pirates, he walked the regression plank. Tough matchups this week are making me look both ways before crossing the street, cause knowing is half the battle…GI Joe.

Brian Duensing (Bal vs. Simon, Det vs. Penny) Not a fan of the home field advantage. Has RP eligibility coupled with some sweet matchups. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Joe Saunders (@Was vs. Detwiler, SD vs. Harang) Attention D-backs fans, yeah, all 6 of you.  Get in close so you can hear me. Starting game 3 of the NLDS, Joe Saunders….crickets. Fantasy wise he is crap, real life he is a scrapper. Scrappiness wins out this week with some decent matchups and a hot team.

Erik Bedard (@Tex vs. Wilson, Oak vs. Moscoso) Still chasing that first Sawx win. He is getting close to what we want/expect him to be. A kitty cat? That comment brought to you by my 3 year old niece.

Paul Maholm (Mil vs. Estrada, StL vs. Lohse) Watching him regress is like watching Journey without Steve Perry. Expect nothing. He hit the wall, hit it hard and is down for the waiver wire count.

Jason Vargas (@Cle vs. Carmona, CHW vs. Danks) Stat-wise where he is right now is where he should have been all year. Barely serviceable and an occasional spot start based on hot streak. It’s your call, but I think I’m heading on down the highway here.

Bruce Chen (@Tor vs. Morrow, @Cle vs. Masterson) Let’s see, we wouldn’t pick him up for starts versus the Yankees, Tigers and Pale Hose. I wonder how those starts turned out? My inner Bruce Chen is telling me to gamble here. Finished last year strong also, I can’t make this stuff up.

Bud Norris (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Cain) How is a pitcher with a high K-rate, ERA in the mid 3’s not owned everywhere? Look at the stats, they look like Gio, but without the Latin rhythm and paltry BB/9 rate.

Nate Eovaldi (@StL vs. Carpenter, Col vs. Chacin) Unfamiliarity may be guiding his ship. Features a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball, above average curve and a passable change. Walk rate is the death march to any young starter.

Fausto Carmona (Sea vs. Vargas, KC vs. Duffy) Frustrating. You watch him pitch and he looks unhittable one inning, next inning he is throwing underhand and rolling around the infield in Stephen Hawking’s wheel chair.