The average for caught stealing percentage in the Major Leagues is 28% so there’s not a whole lot of clubs that believe keeping the guy at first base is of much importance. Of course, some pitchers and catchers are just much easier than others. I remember watching one game where John Popper stole 2nd, 3rd and home on Chris Young while Run Around was playing on the stadium’s PA. Or maybe I just made that up. Either way, Chris Young’s terrible but he’s also a seven foot stick of injury proneness, which is a “u” and some fiber short of pruneness. So let’s look at some guys who are actually playing and how easy they are to steal on for fantasy baseball:
Gil Meche – Leads the league in steals allowed at 13. That’s also more than a third of the bases stolen against Kendall. So Kendall sucks, but Meche is making the most of his suckiness. Or the least. Not sure, lost myself there. Please, blog, may I have some more?
BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play. And they sometimes lie, even if Shakira sang, BABIPs Don’t Lie. BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having. There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, a high BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with the infield drawn in. Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule. Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls. Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives. Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard. Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks. So why all the fancy acronyms? Is it just gas for your inevitable brain fart? Nah, we’re going to see if there’s any hitters out there that are being sucky because they’re unlucky or unsucky because they’re lucky. Anyway, here’s some hitters that have been lucky or unlucky so far for fantasy baseball:
Aramis Ramirez – His K% is poor (24.6%), but it could be because his luck has been so bad (.179 BABIP). I’m not a huge fan of Aramis, but I think he will get better. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last week, I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. This week, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. You know, the unlucky ones. These guys are either not leaving men on base at a normal rate and/or they’re giving up hits like there’s 7 Pat Burrells behind them. They couldn’t get lucky with a gingie stache, a chicken wing and a drunk Margo Adams. But that could all change. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The last time we looked at FIP for fantasy baseball was back in March. On that list of guys that will fail were Edwin Jackson, Jurrjens, Happ, Arroyo, Wolf, Johan and *small voice* Cain. Now that we have a decent enough sample size for the new season, we can check to see where we’re at in 2010. To remind you, xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month of the season. Please, blog, may I have some more?
You have ADD and you have no idea how this sentence will end because you’re already reading the comments. You drafted Jay Bruce and traded him for Vernon Wells. You’re glad Crapolanco has 3rd base eligibility so you can trade away Youkilis. If Ellsbury isn’t DL’d soon, you’re dropping him for Kevin Millwood. You’re trigger finger is itching and only Scott Podsednik can scratch it. You’re also potentially losing your league in April. Please, blog, may I have some more?
There’s not much left to do. You’ve printed out the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings. You’ve paid attention when I went over my fantasy baseball sleeper posts. You even drew a mustache on your mirror so every time you look at yourself you look like me. The only thing left for you is actually taking part in a fantasy baseball draft. No sweat, you’ve been mock drafting for the last two months. First few rounds fly by. You’re cool with a capital Clooney. Rounds 5 through 8 come and go. Nothing to it! You pack a bowl for yourself for your glaucoma and shotgun it into your cat’s face. Round 9 comes, Adrian Beltre is drafted right before you and now the first bead of sweat forms. Where are all of the third basemen? Please, blog, may I have some more?
Usually on Friday I go over one player who can be looked at keeping in keeper leagues, but the other day in the comments I was asked for some general fantasy baseball keeper league strategy. A request and dedication, if you will. For illustration purposes, let’s look at last year’s Chase Utley keeper post. Go ahead, read it. This’ll be here when you return. Welcome back! Okay, in that post I told you to keep Marmol and Utley. At the time, Utley was about to have hip surgery and Marmol wasn’t the closer. In my oversized brain, I figured, hip surgery be damned, Utley would still be a top hitter at a weak position. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Turns out Yahoo’s fantasy baseball doesn’t count the Twins and Tigers game no matter the format. It’s the Keyser Söze of regular season games, I suppose. ESPN, on the other hand, does count it. So that means only one thing. Pick up everyone from either the Tigers or the Twins, if it could mean a championship for you. Ryan Raburn? Yes, please! Delmon Young? Of course! Fu-Te Ni? Yes, unless you want to get F-U’d royally. Please, blog, may I have some more?
If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season. In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit. For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league. Were they all gems? Aw, heck no. If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw. Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings. Yeah, that’s pretty good. Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:
Monday, September 28th
Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday. Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire. So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week. You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins. And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish. Not too shabby. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:
Monday, September 21st
Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates. Do I have to say more? No, I really don’t. Please, blog, may I have some more?