The last time we looked at FIP for fantasy baseball was back in March. On that list of guys that will fail were Edwin Jackson, Jurrjens, Happ, Arroyo, Wolf, Johan and *small voice* Cain. Now that we have a decent enough sample size for the new season, we can check to see where we’re at in 2010. To remind you, xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month of the season.
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You have ADD and you have no idea how this sentence will end because you’re already reading the comments. You drafted Jay Bruce and traded him for Vernon Wells. You’re glad Crapolanco has 3rd base eligibility so you can trade away Youkilis. If Ellsbury isn’t DL’d soon, you’re dropping him for Kevin Millwood. You’re trigger finger is itching and only Scott Podsednik can scratch it. You’re also potentially losing your league in April.
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There’s not much left to do. You’ve printed out the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings. You’ve paid attention when I went over my fantasy baseball sleeper posts. You even drew a mustache on your mirror so every time you look at yourself you look like me. The only thing left for you is actually taking part in a fantasy baseball draft. No sweat, you’ve been mock drafting for the last two months. First few rounds fly by. You’re cool with a capital Clooney. Rounds 5 through 8 come and go. Nothing to it! You pack a bowl for yourself for your glaucoma and shotgun it into your cat’s face. Round 9 comes, Adrian Beltre is drafted right before you and now the first bead of sweat forms. Where are all of the third basemen?
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Usually on Friday I go over one player who can be looked at keeping in keeper leagues, but the other day in the comments I was asked for some general fantasy baseball keeper league strategy. A request and dedication, if you will. For illustration purposes, let’s look at last year’s Chase Utley keeper post. Go ahead, read it. This’ll be here when you return. Welcome back! Okay, in that post I told you to keep Marmol and Utley. At the time, Utley was about to have hip surgery and Marmol wasn’t the closer. In my oversized brain, I figured, hip surgery be damned, Utley would still be a top hitter at a weak position.
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Turns out Yahoo’s fantasy baseball doesn’t count the Twins and Tigers game no matter the format. It’s the Keyser Söze of regular season games, I suppose. ESPN, on the other hand, does count it. So that means only one thing. Pick up everyone from either the Tigers or the Twins, if it could mean a championship for you. Ryan Raburn? Yes, please! Delmon Young? Of course! Fu-Te Ni? Yes, unless you want to get F-U’d royally.
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If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season. In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit. For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league. Were they all gems? Aw, heck no. If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw. Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings. Yeah, that’s pretty good. Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:
Monday, September 28th
Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday. Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.
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Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire. So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week. You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins. And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish. Not too shabby. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:
Monday, September 21st
Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates. Do I have to say more? No, I really don’t.
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Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September. If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August. Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners. It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll. So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is. I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla). Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:
Tuesday, September 15th
Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs.
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In roto, you can can’t gain ground in many categories in September, unless you’re already close. The two categories you can conceivably gain ground in is in steals and saves — SAGNOF! If you are up in power, or at least far enough that you can’t be caught by the team right behind you, then I’d stack up on guys that could get you some steals. As for saves, you probably don’t have as many options on waivers. But there’s a some guys that might get a save or two in the final few weeks, and, well, every save counts. Anyway, here’s some guys that can provide steals and saves this week in fantasy baseball:
STEALS
Drew Stubbs – He has 5 homers and 3 steals in the majors in two weeks. He had 3 homers and 46 steals in 5 months in Triple-A. Maybe he sleeps with a 1996 Brady Anderson card under his pillow.
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I’m not going to lie. It’s hard to make up ground in the standings this late in the season. Your fantasy baseball trading deadline has probably passed, so you’re left with playing hot hands off of waivers. You need to make sure you don’t hold until guys just for their names. In June or even July, I wouldn’t tell you to lose, say, Jermaine Dye for Matt LaPorta or Andy Marte, but it’s a whole new ballgame in September. There’s only so much your top players can even do in one month. For instance, Carlos Lee hasn’t had a month of more than 5 homers all year. If you really don’t need homers and you’re dying for steals, playing Carlos Lee over, say, Andrew McCutchen isn’t going to get you anywhere.
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