What’s up, homes? Why isn’t it officially summer yet? Feels like it, right? Okay, enough small talk. Let’s get down to some fantasy baseball action! (<–If you say that to a girl and she doesn’t immediately walk away, splash some water in your face, you’re dreaming.) We’re taking our monthly look at xFIPs and what they can tell us for fantasy baseball. If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about. Read the following: xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months of the season.
Please, blog, may I have some more?fantasy baseball strategy
Yesterday’s short schedule day reminded me of an old Chinese proverb. Since a lot of you don’t speak Chinese, I’ll translate it for you. If you can grab a hitter or two on a short schedule day, you should. In bed. I’d take a season of 0-for-4′s from my one day hitter pickups just for that outside chance I get one homer. There is nothing more rewarding in fantasy, except maybe the one day pitcher grabs that nets you solid ratios and a Win. Those are kinda sweet too. So I decided to look at some guys that are probably owned in less than 50% of most leagues who could get you some value in fantasy baseball. Because it’s just under two months into the season, a lot of names listed are fluky. For instance, Luke Scott gets hot for 7 games and they’re all at home then suddenly he’s the best home slugger. Most times picking up a hitter for one day really is about the hitter vs.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
When you’re looking at pitcher matchups for fantasy baseball, sometimes the cards just align for certain guys. On the right day, Piniero can look like Winiero. Or Jamie Moyer looks like “Play Me” Moyer. Or Carl Pavano becomes Pava-yes. It’s all about the matchups, right? Anyone can win against the Indians… Well, maybe. Maybe not. I decided to look at teams, in general, to see what their overall stats could tell us about potential fantasy baseball matchups.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is more of a general fantasy baseball strategy post (and aimed for Roto more than H2H). This is sort of a continuation of this morning’s roundup. Well… Of every roundup, really. At least the thought process for why I’m writing it is in continuation. Do you start or sit pitchers? There isn’t an easy, broad answer to start every guy, so I understand the questions about starting certain guys. You don’t want Wandy sitting on your team’s face right after he ate Mexican food. But you also don’t want to start a guy for all his bad outings and sit him for the great ones. In a lot of cases, it comes down to overthinking. Listen, even your fearless leader sometimes overthinks his starts and misses a good one. And some guys really are for just matchups. You’re not starting Kevin Millwood every time out.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Let’s see… The winner of the All-Star game gets home field advantage… The WBC… Steroids testing after letting the world believe Bret Boone was good… Finally, interleague play. Selig should hang his legacy right next to the monkey carcass that helped spread the AIDS virus. So, interleague is here whether we like it or not. I don’t, but I’m the only one who thinks this is all about me. So what can we do about interleague play for fantasy baseball?
Please, blog, may I have some more?
The average for caught stealing percentage in the Major Leagues is 28% so there’s not a whole lot of clubs that believe keeping the guy at first base is of much importance. Of course, some pitchers and catchers are just much easier than others. I remember watching one game where John Popper stole 2nd, 3rd and home on Chris Young while Run Around was playing on the stadium’s PA. Or maybe I just made that up. Either way, Chris Young’s terrible but he’s also a seven foot stick of injury proneness, which is a “u” and some fiber short of pruneness. So let’s look at some guys who are actually playing and how easy they are to steal on for fantasy baseball:
Gil Meche – Leads the league in steals allowed at 13. That’s also more than a third of the bases stolen against Kendall. So Kendall sucks, but Meche is making the most of his suckiness. Or the least. Not sure, lost myself there.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play. And they sometimes lie, even if Shakira sang, BABIPs Don’t Lie. BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having. There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, a high BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with the infield drawn in. Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule. Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls. Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives. Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard. Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks. So why all the fancy acronyms? Is it just gas for your inevitable brain fart? Nah, we’re going to see if there’s any hitters out there that are being sucky because they’re unlucky or unsucky because they’re lucky. Anyway, here’s some hitters that have been lucky or unlucky so far for fantasy baseball:
Aramis Ramirez – His K% is poor (24.6%), but it could be because his luck has been so bad (.179 BABIP). I’m not a huge fan of Aramis, but I think he will get better.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last week, I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. This week, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. You know, the unlucky ones. These guys are either not leaving men on base at a normal rate and/or they’re giving up hits like there’s 7 Pat Burrells behind them. They couldn’t get lucky with a gingie stache, a chicken wing and a drunk Margo Adams. But that could all change. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
The last time we looked at FIP for fantasy baseball was back in March. On that list of guys that will fail were Edwin Jackson, Jurrjens, Happ, Arroyo, Wolf, Johan and *small voice* Cain. Now that we have a decent enough sample size for the new season, we can check to see where we’re at in 2010. To remind you, xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month of the season.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
You have ADD and you have no idea how this sentence will end because you’re already reading the comments. You drafted Jay Bruce and traded him for Vernon Wells. You’re glad Crapolanco has 3rd base eligibility so you can trade away Youkilis. If Ellsbury isn’t DL’d soon, you’re dropping him for Kevin Millwood. You’re trigger finger is itching and only Scott Podsednik can scratch it. You’re also potentially losing your league in April.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
