Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot. The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held too tightly to your players. In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else while losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power.Please, blog, may I have some more?
When you’re looking at pitcher matchups for fantasy baseball, sometimes the cards just align for certain guys. On the right day, Rodrigo Lopez can look like a surefire start… Actually probably not. But for fantasy fourth and fifth starters it can be about the matchups. It’s especially helpful to keep this in mind for H2H leagues where on any given Sunday a team can win or lose. Hooah! I decided to look at teams in general to see what their overall stats could tell us about potential fantasy baseball matchups.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Is there anything more fulfilling than grabbing a hitter on a short schedule day and he gives you a home run, steal or just an overall quality day? It’s the fantasy baseball equivalent to taking a girl out, she pays and has sex with you (assuming you’re not a paid escort, though I’m pretty sure there’s not that many paid escorts reading a fantasy baseball blog). It’s pay dirt of the fantasy baseball kind. So how does one with the ‘pertise of me find a waiver wire hitter on a short schedule day? Darts at a board? A Ouija board? Draw whiskers on my face, infiltrate a clowder of stray cats and hold pictures of Mike Cameron and David Murphy up to see which one the cats are attracted to? Sometimes it’s all the above. But before I resort to dumb luck, I usually look for these five criteria:
1.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The other day I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. Today, we put on our miner’s helmet and pan for gold where the rest of the prospectors have abandoned. In our last look at pitchers that should get better, I pointed out Gavin Floyd, Haren, Randy Wells, Edwin Jackson, Pineiro, Harang, Correia, Masterson, Peavy and Morrow. Morrow’s ERA went from 6.52 in May to 3.35 in June/July, Floyd’s went 5.63 to 2.21, Haren went from 6.08 to 3.05, Edwin from 5.58 to 3.37… You get the idea. Even Justin Masterson was better (barely). You can argue that some of these guys had no place to go but down, but you’d be arguing with a computer screen. You’re just reading my words, we’re not in the same room. OR ARE WE?! Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last month, I told you Ubaldo, Mike Leake, Hi-Me Garcia, Buchholz, Livan, Garland, Niemann, Tim Hudson, David Price and Pettitte would get worse. Price and Buchholz were the only pitchers to have a better June than May, and Buchholz didn’t pitch the whole month. How’s those odds? If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about. Read the following: xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first three months or so of the fantasy baseball season.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The other day I went over some 2nd half hitters. Today, it’s time for everyone’s favorite 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers. Or maybe these won’t be your favorite pitchers. These are decisions you have to make on your own. I can walk you to the fantasy baseball water, I cannot drink it for you. Similarly to hitters, players get in grooves or slumps. So if a pitcher has been terrible for the last month, but showed flashes in the 2nd half of last year, he’s worth considering, but he’s not suddenly going to be great, i.e., recent history should be weighed. Anyway, here’s some 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers for 2010:
CC Sabathia – 1.56 ERA in 2008′s 2nd half to lead the league for pitchers over 60 innings. He was ranked 7th for 2nd half ERA in 2007 with a 2.76. Last year, Chubb rock’d a 2.74 ERA, the 9th best in the majors. Though his K-rate is down. Though, Part II: The Return of Though, he does have a 3.61 career ERA. Though, Part III: Though Lives, he is usually better in the 2nd half. Though, Part IV: Though Part Three Confused Me. Though, Part V: Why Do They Keep Making Thoughs?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Here’s some 2nd half hitters for fantasy baseball who should be better than they were in the first half. To come up with this list, I scoured the last three years of post-All-Star Break numbers, ran it through a supercomputer that’s bigger than your Peugeot, pasted the supercomputer-generated names to my shirt like dollar bills on a wedding dress then went to a palm reader to help me pick ten names out of the thousands. The palm reader’s name was Erica Karabell. Anyway, here’s the best 2nd half fantasy baseball hitters for 2010:
Derrek Lee – Last year, he played the 2nd half like he was walking onto a yacht with an apricot scarf. I think last year was an anomaly, which is a fancy word for saying ignore Derrek Lee’s 2nd half. But if you’re choosing between the schmohawk behind door #3 and Lee, then I’d go with Lee just for the chance he can repeat even a tiny bit of last year, so that’s negating the negation.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Headley’s an example. You don’t necessarily have to give or get Headley for this example to work, but a comment I got today made me think of him. Someone was offered the trade of Miggy Cabrera and Chase Headley for Haren and Kershaw. Whether you think this trade is fair or not is besides the point, Headley is the point. He’s the sore thumb in this trade. To break this down into a real world example, if you were trading someone for a blueberry pie and you had to give an apple pie and one other component. To sweeten the pot of pie, would you A) Throw in whipped cream?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Sometimes you just can’t trade a guy in your fantasy baseball league. For whatever reason, the rest of the teams don’t believe in your guy. Whether it’s someone who has been doing well who people aren’t sure if they’re for real (Corey Hart) or someone who has been struggling (Berkman), no one in your league will trade for them. You’ve tried to sell lower than even their value warrants, but no bites.Please, blog, may I have some more?
These are the leading pitchers in the major leagues for last three July’s. Do I think every pitcher does the same thing every year? No, I don’t. But pitchers do tend to follow patterns. If these players were good in July for the last three years, there’s at least a chance they will be good this year. I emphasized last year’s July over the previous years and omitted names that I thought wouldn’t be available anywhere. Then I wrote the names on bingo balls, threw them in a large rotating cage and had a priest pick them out. What? That’s how I always do it. Anyway, here’s some top fantasy baseball pitchers for the month of July:
Carlos Zambrano – Has an ERA of 1.93 for the last three July’s. By far his best month. Except for maybe December when the Big Z can be seen drinking Mai Tais on the white sand beaches of Bermuda. Keep in mind Z gets so amped up in July that he loses his shizz in August, which is his worse ERA month over the last three years.Please, blog, may I have some more?