Fantasy Baseball Advice

Adam Lind – I meant to write about Lind a few weeks ago, but then he got hurt. Still, I’d be remiss if I went through this series without discussing the topsy-turvy career of the Blue Jays’ 2004 3^rd round draft pick.

Lind has destroyed pitching throughout his minor league career (he batted under .300 once (.299 in just 190 plate appearances in 2007). His career minor league line is .320/.382/.512. His career AAA numbers are even better (.333/.406/.525). It is not hard, therefore, to understand why he was always a highly touted prospect.

After dominating AAA in his first promotion, the Jays gave him a cup of coffee at the end of 2006. He didn’t disappoint (.367/.415/.600) in 65 plate appearances. He did have 12 Ks to just five walks, but there was significant cause for optimism.

Of course progression in baseball is rarely linear. What goes up often comes down. In his first extended taste of major league pitching in 2007, Lind hit just .238/.278/.400, struggling mightily against lefties (.194/.243/.299). Lind was demoted back to Syracuse in July, where he proceeded to destroy minor league pitching.

The following season, Lind flashed a little promise by hitting .282/.316/.439. That OBP, however, simply does not play for a DH masquerading as a corner outfielder/first baseman. Lind was, it seemed, destined to be a AAAA player – a guy with tremendous AAA ability who just can’t handle the Bigs.

And then 2009 happened. Over the course of the season, Lind hit .305/.370/.562 and he smacked the ball around the yard prodigiously (35 HRs and 46 doubles). He also showed tremendous improvement against lefties (.275/.318/.461). From a fantasy perspective, these numbers appeared trustworthy. While his HR/FB rate was a tad unsustainable, that merely meant he was more of a 28-30 HR guy than 35 HR guy.

Then, as the rock stars say, the bottom fell out. Lind’s 2010 season was, without a doubt, the worst of his career: .237/.287/.425 as he again struggled against lefties (.117/.159/.182). Still, he suffered some bad luck as his BABIP was somewhat in the dumps and his HR/FB rate went way back to pre-2009 rates.

However, the real culprit was a regression in his approach. After getting his swinging and missing under control in 2009, Lind was back to posting a 10+% swinging strike percentage. Obviously, his contact rate went down the tubes (tying a career low in a much bigger sample). It made Lind appear to be a platoon player who should never face lefties and who might hit just 20-25 HRs with a modest average at best. He wasn’t as bad as he was going, but the rates he had posted in 2009 seemed like the high watermark for his career.

Remember: what goes up must go down and vice versa. Lind’s 2011 season has, so far, seen a return to his 2009 potential: he is crushing lefties (.304/.340/.500) and posting a .337/.382/.614 slash line. Sure his BABIP is a bit high (.341), but he is sporting a career high 25.2% line drive rate. Even more important, his HR/FB rate has skyrocketed past 2009’s number to 23.2%. He is back to swinging and missing less and making more contact (and boy what contact!). While this is probably the best stretch of Lind’s career, I don’t think it’s a mirage. When the Astroturf settles, Lind will hit 30 HRs, and bat .300/.355/.540. He’s a great 1b option.

Brandon Morrow – Just five years ago, Morrow was the 5^th overall selection by the Seattle Mariners. He started in the minors in 2006 and pitched pretty well, albeit in 32 innings. He did walk a ton of guys, but his K-rate was tantalizing.

He actually broke spring training with the club in 2007 and pitched well in relief (as well as someone can with a 7.11 BB/9 rate). He started five games in 2008, but was used mostly as a reliever. Over his 45 appearances (5 starts/40 relief), he cut the walks down and posted a 10.44 K/9 rate. Still, his massive potential (who spends a top 10 pick on a reliever) suggested he would eventually be given a real shot at the rotation. The Mariners gave him ten more starts in 2009, though they also used him in relief for another 16 other games. He was then traded to the Blue Jays for a decent relief pitcher. Whoops.

In 2010, the Blue Jays used Morrow exclusively as a starter, trotting him out to the mound 26 times throughout the season. The early returns weren’t great. In 18 first half starts, he had a 2.36 K/BB rate, 1.46 WHIP and 4.86 ERA. There was potential though.  Specifically, he had 111 Ks in just 100 IPs.

In the second half, Morrow’s numbers got better.  Much better. In 46.1 IPs, Morrow had a 3.53 K/BB rate, 1.21 WHIP and 3.69 ERA. He posted an incredible 13 K/9 rate. On the one hand, Morrow was doing this primarily against the AL East – the most competitive division in baseball. On the other, talent tends to be a bit diluted in the second half, with teams inflating their rosters with prospects in the hopes of separating the AAAA players from the potential future cornerstones.

In 2011, Morrow appears to be doing his best first half 2010 impression: 2.64 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP and 5.63 ERA in 54.1 IPs.

Still, his BABIP is .358 (a decent amount over his .342 number last year). He isn’t striking out fewer batters or walking more. He is struggling with a poor strand rate (60.3%) without the corresponding high HR/FB rate. Color me a Morrow believer. Now is the time to acquire him. We’ve seen him capable of putting together top 20 SP stretches. The Ks will be there regardless, his BABIP will be similar to last year and he should end with an ERA similar to last year as well. It’ll be a fun ride as he gets there.

Justin Masterson – The Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde thing that Masterson has going on has always made him something of a fantasy conundrum.  I speak, of course, about his split personalities when it comes to batters on opposite sides of the plate. To date, Masterson has allowed a .294/.376/.430 line against lefties and has a meager 1.38 K/BB rate. Against righties, he has allowed a .224/.304/.307 line with a 2.70 K/BB rate.

For him to be anything other than a reliever, he would have to figure out lefties, right? Well, sort of, it appears.

In limited samples this year (229 plate appearances versus a lefty batter, 164 with a righty), Masterson has a 2.21 K/BB rate and allowed a .308/.357/.418 line against lefties. Somewhat shockingly, he has a 1.89 K/BB rate against righties but a .204/.305/.232 slash line allowed. This is extremely odd.

So how is Masterson being so successful (3.16 ERA, 3.20 FIP and 3.71 xFIP) relative to past years? He has a slightly better strand rate than he is used to (but it isn’t crazy out of whack). His BABIP is in line with his career numbers, even though his line drive and contact rates are up and his ground ball and swinging strike rates are down. He has been walking fewer batters than typical, but he’s also not striking out as many guys.

All of that is mostly a wash. The real advantage has been Masterson’s ability to keep the ball in play to date. He has a miniscule 3.9% HR/FB rate compared to double digits for his career. That will change and it will hurt Masterson. He’s not Matt Cain (and even Cain, who really keeps the ball in play, has never had a HR/FB rate under 5.5).

I’m not overly optimistic on Masterson going forward. I don’t think he’ll be useless, but his final line will look like a 3.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 150 Ks. Unless Masterson can get lefties out, he’ll continue to face stacked lineups (which is why he’s faced roughly 200 more lefties than righties in his career).

The other day I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball.  Today, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives.  Last time I looked at the starters that were being unlucky the list included:  Dempster, Garza, Wood, Liriano, Narveson, Ervin, Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Bumgarner and Edwin Jackson.  Bumgarner’s ERA went from 4.25 to 3.23; Edwin’s ERA went from 4.53 to 4.39; Hudson’s 4.41 to 3.82; Gallardo’s 5.11 to 3.96; 4.85 to 4.37 for Ervin; Narveson went 4.38 to 4.32; Wood went 5.28 to 5.38; Garza went 4.17 to 3.84 and Dempster went 7.20 to 5.48, i.e., there was only one pitcher who gained in ERA — Travis Wood.   I.E. II, The Return of I.E.:  Everyone did better except one guy.  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)

Ryan Dempster – 2.17.  Will continue to get better.  Oh, and the two of the three unluckiest pitchers are Cubs.  Blame Bartman!  (BTW, there were some pitchers I left off of here that came with xFIPs that were better than their ERAs, but still terrible.  Javier Vazquez come to mind.)

Chris Volstad – 1.96.  Harumph, where did that name come from, huh?  His K-rate is 6.72, which isn’t terrible, and his K to BB ratio recently has been solid.  Worth a shot in deeper leagues to see if he can right the ship and leave a few more men on base and stop having balls go through.

Matt Garza – 1.54.  He has the 4th best xFIP in the league.  Right after Halladay, Hamels and Cliff Lee.  Maybe the Phils will trade for him.

Chris Carpenter – 1.05.  I’ve spent a lot of energy on Razzball talking about how I don’t like Carpenter, so I won’t bore myself by rehashing.  Instead, I’ll bore myself by talking about how I won’t rehash it.  If you can get Carp on the cheap, it’s worth considering, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher.

Chris Narveson – 0.98.  Has a real nice K-rate and his xFIP is below 3.50.  The walks kinda drive me crazy though.  If he’s on waivers, it’s worth a shot.

Derek Holland – 0.89.  I really don’t like messing with Texas pitchers.  I wouldn’t like to sit in the stands in 100 degree heat, let alone play in it.  Now get off my lawn!

Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.80.  Jackie Chiles thinks his walks have been egregious, and his K-rate has been down.  On the more positive side, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher, but closer to a mid-3 guy.

Last month we went over some pitchers that were getting lucky.  You remember back a month ago, right?  You were 15 pounds lighter and still had a few hairs to brush over your head.  The pitchers that I said would regress last month were Moseley, Ogando, Tomlin, Britton, Correia, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Guthrie, Wolf and Cahill.  Their combined ERA in the last month was 4.51.  I.e. Not good.  To refresh what the FIP I’m talking about.  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Josh Beckett – 1.69.  I’d love to see Red State Jeter’s regression to his 3.75 xFIP.  Biggest reason, cause I don’t own him anywhere.  2nd biggest reason, because he’s helping other teams win.  3rd reason, the first two were already the same, don’t make me come up with a third.

Jair Jurrjens – 1.67.  Jar-Jar, any time you wanna cooperate and not be as good as you’ve been, it would be appreciated.  Meesa tanks you in advance.

Alexi Ogando – 1.58.  I’d feel differently about this post if I owned a few of these guys.  Maybe I should ignore LOB%, BABIP, K-rate and xFIP and just ride the hot hand…Then as soon as I pick them up they’ll get shelled.

Jeremy Hellickson – 1.39.  He’s kept his BABIP fairly low in the past, but it’s even below that right now.  His K-rate is also very low for him (and his ERA which makes me want to kick myself in the head).

Gio Gonzalez – 1.26.  There’s a lot of names on this list that I don’t own.  Gio’s one I have.  Sad emoticon.  Right now, I’m only starting him at home because I don’t trust him.  He seems to be losing control like Meatloaf working with Gary Busey.

Jered Weaver – 1.14.  I wouldn’t panic too much with this one.  Weaver’s not a 2.24 ERA pitcher, but he’s not his brother either.

Philip Humber – 1.04.  C’mon, a less than 5.50 K-rate?  That is the new blech.

Matt Harrison – 1.03.  Here comes the runs, and I say… I almost left Harrison off because who’s trusting him?  Maybe some people who only see the 3.31 ERA.  These are people that probably aren’t reading this site…Never the hoo!

Kyle Lohse – 1.00.  Another guy that falls into the Harrison category; you should know he’s not around a mid-2 ERA pitcher.  If you don’t, shame on you.  But you can put the blame on me…Said you can put the blame on me…

Wilson Betemit – When Wilson Betemit was 15, the Atlanta Braves signed him to a contract.  He hit .212/.270/.283 in his first year at rookie ball and .220/.301/.399 his second year. He was just 16.

The following year he got his act together as an enterprising 17-year-old posting an admirable .320/.383/.463 line. He snuck into the top 100 prospects before the following season and would remain on that list until the end of 2003. At one point, he was the 8th best prospect in all the land.

He debuted in the majors with the Braves in 2001 at age 19 and didn’t get enough at bats to do anything. However, he wouldn’t return to the bigs until 2004, as a seasoned veteran (he was 22). He didn’t fair all that well, but the next year he saw 274 plate appearances in the majors and went .305/.359/.435. That would be the best stretch of his career.

Since then, he was traded for Willy Aybar, Danys Baez and cash in one deal, Scott Proctor in another and (along with Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez) for Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira.

Finally, in 2010 – a shocking 14 years after he signed his first contract – he would seemingly find a home with the Kansas City Royals. He appeared in 84 games for the Royals and went .297/.378/.511.

At 29, this season, Betemit has gone .297/.358/.419. If you combine the last two years, you get 496 plate appearances and a .300/.375/.484 line with a 162-game average of 20 HRs.

This isn’t the most objective piece as I have about a bazillion Betemit rookie cards (and boy was he skinny). But, in my opinion, the only thing stopping Betemit from being a top 10 third baseman is playing time (and Mike Moustakas). A final Betemit line will look a lot like .290/.350/.440 with 13-15 HRs. What a long strange trip it’s been.

Jeremy Guthrie – In 2002, the Cleveland Indians made Guthrie the 22nd pick of the draft. He’d dominate AA and earn a quick promotion to AAA, where things didn’t go so well. He started the next season in AA hoping to rekindle the previous year’s promise. It didn’t work, nor did his promotion to AAA. In 2005, he spent the entire year at AAA and did nothing (5.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP). Still he had a not completely miserable 2.04 K/BB ratio.

Finally, in 2006, at 27 years old, Guthrie would show promise at AAA: 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, he had little success with the major league club in very few innings and the Orioles plucked him off waivers. This might have been one of the smartest things that club has done in a decade.

In 2007, Guthrie showed all the promise of a late first rounder. He had a 2.07 K/BB rate, a 3.70 ERA, and 6.31 K/9 rate. While he has averaged 12 loses per year in his four full seasons with the Orioles, he also has a 2.20 K/BB rate, 4.06 ERA and 5.5 K/9 rate.

He has actually improved on those numbers, so far, in 2011, posting a 5.85 K/9 rate and 3.71 K/BB rate. For the first time in his career Guthrie is walking less than two batters per nine innings – significantly less.

What is most surprising is that batters are making more and better contact on strikes. His line drive rate is up and his ground ball rate is down. However, his BABIP is about where it has been for his career.

I’d be mildly surprised if Guthrie, all of a sudden, stopped walking guys. However, it isn’t a total mirage. By the end of the year, Guthrie will pitch 200+ innings with an ERA in the 3.80 – 4.00 range, 140 Ks and a very nice 1.25 WHIP. Can anyone say Tim Hudson? He’d look real good in an Indians uniform right about now.

Phil Humber – I’m not sure what Earl Weaver would say about a 6-man rotation, however it’s not as if one White Sox pitcher is discernibly better than another.

In fact, Humber might have one of the better pedigrees on the entire staff. He was the 3rd overall pick by the New York Mets in 2004. After the draft, Humber was immediately ranked the #50 prospect in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, he injured his elbow in his first start in AA in 2005 and was out of baseball recuperating for 377 days.

In 2008, he was traded to the Minnesota Twins as part of the Johan Santana deal. He didn’t show much promise for the Twins in AAA, walking over three batters per nine in his two seasons and allowing a ton of hits. Still, he did post a 7 and 6.5 K/9-rate, so there was some promise. However, not enough for the Twins to keep him around as he was granted his free agency

The Royals signed him in 2009 and on August 5, 2010 he earned a promotion. Twenty days later, Humber got his first major league win.

While he pitched reasonably well for the Royals, it was only 21.2 innings and he was placed on waivers. The Athletics took a run at him before, ultimately, the White Sox plucked him off the wire.

This year, Humber has pitched 67.2 innings for the Sox, posting a 3.06 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 5.05 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. Any way you slice it, he’s been good in a real world sense.

Humber is getting a decent swinging strike percentage (8.3%) and a pretty low contact rate (82.2%). In addition, batters don’t seem to be making great contact against him (16.1% line drive rate). Still, that .224 BABIP is not going to continue.

I really like the Humber story. I’m very happy for him. Not only did he overcome the surgery and journeyman waiver process, but he was also struck in the face by a line drive. I just can’t really advocate his fantasy ownership. At some point, he won’t be a full time starter, and, even if he continues to start, we’re looking at a 4.50 ERA at best, 5.4 K/9 and maybe 165 total innings.

AL-only seems like the only place for him. Still, if he could end up on a National League squad at some point, things could get more interesting.

These guys are ON FIRE…will they stay hot?

Asdrubal Cabrera – Cabrera’s been having a tremendous season. His 11 HR’s on the year are nearly double his previous career high of 6 HR, and his .306 batting average is almost 20 points higher than his .287 career line. Preseason projections were decent, but not earth shattering. Bill James had Cabrera going .292, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 78 R, 13 SB, and ZiPs projected a very similar .286, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 55 R, 9 SB. So, obviously, while his numbers would be quite decent in deeper, mixed leagues, he was a fringe starter at best. And yet, as we enter the second week of June, Cabrera is ranked #9 overall in Yahoo! fantasy leagues, good enough to lay the claim as the highest ranked shortstop in the game, above stalwarts Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Hanley Ramirez. So what’s the deal?

Analysis: Cabrera’s having a great season, and I hate to take anything away from that. But really, where is this coming from? The best power he ever displayed professionally came in 2007, when he hit 8 HR’s in 105 games across Double- and Triple-A. So while natural growth and progression could have allowed him to increase his 6-8 HR’s per year to 12-15, his current pace (31) is way beyond any previous expectations or results. So as much as I want to believe in the guy, it’s hard to do so with a serious face. Yes, he’s changed his approach at the plate, taking bigger swings on advice from teammate Orlando Cabrera. But unlike last year’s freak breakout, Jose Bautista, Asdrubal Cabrera has absolutely no history of any power. At least Bautista had the second half of 2009, in which he slugged 11 HR’s in 193 at-bats. I’m calling the bluff here. Sell high.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .293, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 85 R, 20 SB

Alex Gordon – Alex Gordon had me worried for a little while there. After I touted him so highly in preseason, I looked pretty good for the first month. But after seeing his OPS reach .940 on May 1st, he went into a bit of a free-fall, and by May 19th, it was down to .780. For all intents and purposes, it looked like Gordon wasn’t having the breakout season it had first seemed. But now, after a brilliant two weeks, his OPS is back up to .838, and his 162-game pace is .287, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 102 R, and 14 SB. Superstar? Not quite yet, but certainly a useful player.

Analysis: I’ve always liked Gordon, ever since he was drafted in the 1st Round of the 2005 MLB Draft. His minor league career was obviously brilliant, albeit brief in its one season. As such, after 4 seasons of relative mediocrity at the Major League level, doubters were plentiful. His ZiPs preseason projection was a mere .257, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 51 R, and 6 SB. But he’s made strides in 2011, hitting the ball with more authority and lowering his K-rate to 21.4% (previous career low had been 24.3%). His ISO is now sitting at .192, nothing amazing but also nothing to sneeze at, and the emergence of Eric Hosmer has finally given Gordon and teammate Billy Butler some additional lineup protection. While my original projection of 25 HR’s may look a little optimistic right now, I do think he’ll come fairly close.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .286, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 90 R, 9 SB

Dillon Gee – Young and unheralded, Dillon Gee has had quite the start to his Major League career. Over his first 16 career games (13 starts), Gee’s line reads 8-2, 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 87.0 IP / 56 K. Not shabby, eh? He was drafted in the 21st Round of the 2007 MLB Draft and, after 437.2 minor league innings, managed a 3.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go along with a brilliant 4.05 SO/BB ratio. So why wasn’t Gee found on any top prospect lists? Well, his draft status obviously played a role, as did his “stuff,” which is decent but nothing mind-shattering. Gee was thus projected as a low-floor, low-ceiling pitcher who could fit in nicely as a #5 starter. But he hasn’t performed that way. Instead, he’s given every impression of being a solid mid-rotation starter. Much like Jon Niese before him, Gee has provided hope for the Mets’ future rotation.

Analysis: As mentioned, Gee’s minor league SO/BB ratio was tremendous. Given that his career K-rate in the minors was 7.9, he’s proved his ability to get batters out despite his high 80′s fastball. True, most top starters have a zippier pitch, but there also have been plenty of pitchers who won games without an All Star arsenal. Gee’s poise is that of a veteran; despite being only 4 years removed from not being allowed a legal can of beer, Gee has shown great command on the mound. That being said, being smart and in control does not  make one an ace. His 2011 MLB K-rate of 6.5 is too low in comparison to his BB-rate of 3.3. As such, I don’t see him maintaining an ERA in the low 3′s. He’s also encountered a bit of good luck, with an opposing BABIP of merely .232. He’ll have a rookie collapse at some point, and with his below-average fastball, those starts could be ugly. Still, all in all, I do think he’s a decent pitcher. Consider him an option in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues. Keep in mind, of course, that his youth may push the Mets to monitor his innings as the year progresses.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 13 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 IP / 110 K

Anibal Sanchez – He was always highly thought of. He was ranked as the #40 overall prospect by Baseball America in 2006, and seemed primed to become a future front line starter. But it didn’t happen- not a fault of his talent. Rather, it’s the injury bug that’s continuously bitten, forcing him to fall short of 30 starts in all but one season, 2010. In that season, however, he pitched very well: 13 W, 3.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 195 IP / 157 K. He also had a tremendous rookie season, for those of you who could remember all the way back to 2006. That year, he went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA. So, it’s not totally unprecedented for him to succeed. But will he continue to do so?

Analysis: Sanchez is having a huge year, and seems to be finally delivering on his vast potential. Both his K- and BB-rates are lined up to be career highs, and he’s only gotten better as the season’s progressed. Additionally, after a newly developed labrum tear operation, his average velocity is actually up to 91.3 MPH (a good bit higher than his career average). Most importantly, Sanchez’s command has seen tremendous improvement. He’s sporting near career highs in contact-rate, first-strike percentage, and in-zone contact rate. Reportedly, he’s also improved the movement on his secondary options, and is using his slider and change-up to rack up the K’s. So long as he stays healthy, which his recent surgery should hopefully ensure, Sanchez looks every bit a #2 starter.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 14 W, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 203 IP / 200 K

Wow, it’s chilly in here…will the ice thaw?

Dan Uggla – The Braves signed Dan Uggla for his power, which thankfully he’s provided some of by hitting 7 HR’s thus far. His other numbers, however, are deplorable. An OPS of .559 isn’t even bench player material on a bad team, let alone that of a middle of the order slugger on a contending one. While his OPS hasn’t been good at any point this year, it’s absolutely plummeted since hitting a high note (.706) on April 4th.

Analysis: Nobody expected Uggla to repeat his .287 batting average from 2010; a player with his below average speed simply can’t sustain a BABIP of .330. But 2011 has provided a complete reversal in fortune, as Uggla’s BABIP now sits at .186. Additionally, while he’s actually striking out at the 2nd best rate of his career (20.6%), his walk rate (7.9%) is the 2nd worst of his career. So while he’s making slightly better contact (in that he’s not missing pitches for strike 3′s), he’s also seen a pretty substantial drop in his patience. This could be due to him getting frustrated by his bad luck. Or perhaps he’s getting antsy with Turner Field’s large dimensions. Either way, it’s not a good thing. Still, Uggla’s track record is too good for this. He’s hit no less than 27 HR’s in any single season, so while his batting average may never again top .265, there’s no reason to think that the power will vanish. With a .174 batting average, there’s really nowhere to go but up. Buy low, and thank the Maker you can get these kind of numbers out of a second baseman.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .245, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R, 3 SB

Chone Figgins – Ya know when you just don’t like a guy? Not personally, of course, but as a fantasy baseball asset? For me, that guy has always been Chone Figgins. I think it’s the fact that the extent of his fame far exceeds what is worthy of a player with a sub-100 career OPS+. Or maybe it’s because I expect speed players to score 100+ runs on an annual basis. Perhaps it’s simply my confusion on how to pronounce his first name. Whatever the reason, I’ve never drafted Chone Figgins, and have never advised others to, either. Now he’s mired in a season-long funk, which has only gotten worse over the past several weeks. Yes, he’s stolen a few bases when he’s actually been on, but that’s about it.

Analysis: Figgins’ steals are actually not as valuable as they may seem. With only 7 steals to go along with his 5 times being caught, Figgins has been extremely inefficient on the base paths. I wonder how many green lights he’ll be given going forward considering that success rate. To make matters worse, his walk rate (5%) is well below his career average of 9.9%, and his BABIP of .209 is inexcusable given his speed. While Figgins possesses a career batting average of .282, he did hit .259 last season, showing perhaps that his decline had already begun. When speed players decline, they do so at a fairly quick pace. Manager Eric Wedge has benched Figgins a few times so far, and if Figgins can’t get his act together, I can see it becoming a growing trend. Not feeling too much warmth here…if you can part ways successfully, it wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .235, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 45 R, 22 SB

Max Scherzer – A huge second half in 2010 (2.47 ERA, 102.0 IP / 96 K) had Scherzer primed for a giant year in 2011. While he’s continued to strike batters out at a substantial pace (8.50 K-rate thus far), his GB% has dropped 6 points from his career average, and he’s allowed a career high 1.38 HR/9. He’s been simply dreadful as of late, allowing 14 ER and 16 H over his last 8.2 IP.

Analysis: Outside of 4 starts, Scherzer has been lights out in 2011. He’s had 7 starts in which he’s allowed 2 runs or less over 5.0 IP, and has also struck out 7+ batters in, again, 7 of his starts. I guess 7 truly is a lucky number. So really, it’s only his last couple of starts that have been a concern. The first, in which he gave up 7 earned runs (again with 7′s?!) in a mere 2.0 IP against the Red Sox was truly brutal. Still, it’s hard to imagine Scherzer has completely lost it. There have been no reports of decreased velocity and, despite being bashed during those starts, Scherzer maintained his K- and BB-rates. I see no reason to believe his recent performance represents a long-term depression. Sit him during his next start to allow him to stretch a bit, but be prepared to insert him back into your rotation soon. While he may encounter a dip or two like this, he’ll contribute in big ways for your W and K categories.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 15 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 201 IP / 193 K

Joakim Soria – Who could possibly have seen this one coming? Soria entered the year as an easy choice for Top 5 Closer, but recently lost his job to rookie Aaron Crow. Earning losses and blown saves during his 3 most recent opportunities, Soria gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs across a mere 2.1 IP. While he sported a 3.86 ERA prior to those games, that’s not too wonderful for a closer, and even worse considering his 2.35 career mark. So what gives?

Analysis: Soria’s metrics are all over the place right now. His K-, BB-, and HR/9 rates are all career worsts, and his first-pitch strike and swinging strike rates have been simply awful. Moreover, his 18.5% outside swing rate is currently last among all qualified MLB relievers, meaning that hitters aren’t chasing his moving balls for strikes. Additionally, scouting reports have been stating his cutter, which has been a plus pitch in the past, has faltered, and for some reason, he has all but abandoned his curve, which had previously been his out pitch. Still, it’s hard to imagine Soria’s morphed suddenly into Mel Rojas, so don’t drop him quite yet. While you’ll need to make allowances for the closer position, Soria should eventually regain his spot. He’s pitched perfectly in each of his last 2 outings (3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER), so that may be happen sooner than later.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 27 SV, 3.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 65 IP / 58 K