Is there anything more fulfilling than grabbing a hitter on a short schedule day and he gives you a home run, steal or just an overall quality day? It’s the fantasy baseball equivalent to taking a girl out, she pays and has sex with you (assuming you’re not a paid escort, though I’m pretty sure there’s not that many paid escorts reading a fantasy baseball blog). It’s pay dirt of the fantasy baseball kind. So how does one with the ‘pertise of me find a waiver wire hitter on a short schedule day? Darts at a board? A Ouija board? Draw whiskers on my face, infiltrate a clowder of stray cats and hold pictures of Will Venable and David Murphy up to see which one the cats are attracted to? Sometimes it’s all the above. But before I resort to dumb luck, I usually look for these five criteria:
1. Playing time – There’s nothing worse than picking up a hitter for one day and he doesn’t play. I usually sort by ABs for the last week to make sure the top free agents are playing. If there’s even a chance they might not play, I usually look elsewhere.
2. Is the guy currently hitting? – Hitters tend to do what they should do over the course of a season, but from day to day and week to week guys go in and out of slumps. If you’re picking up a guy for only one day, you want a guy that is hitting. If he’s in a 0-for-45 slump, you’re probably better taking an 0-for-0 and going to grab a bite to eat at Whataburger. To pinpoint guys that are hitting, I sort by hits in the last week. There’s usually overlap between guys who are getting playing time. Otherwise, their managers should be fired. I can think of a few.
3. Righty/Lefty Splits – If a guy is hitting well over the last week but is going against his notoriously weaker side, he’s a pass. This usually goes for lefties facing lefties. Righties that are going against righties don’t give me as much pause, unless we’re talking about Matt Diaz. Speaking of which, if a guy is going against a side he absolutely kills then he’s almost an automatic start since I assume his manager will start him too.
4. Hitter/Pitcher Matchups – This is a continuation of the splits. If a guy hits a particular pitcher very well, he’s a go. Contrary to the above splits though, if a guy is hitting well and hasn’t hit a particular pitcher well, he could still be a go if all else fails.
5. The Park and Team Factor – The last thing I look at is where they’ll be playing. If it’s between two guys and one’s at Coors and one’s at Petco, I obviously choose Colorado. If a player’s team is currently hitting well then I’ll go with him over a guy whose team is struggling. The thinking is he’ll at least have some chances for RBIs and Runs.
These are in order of importance. If a player doesn’t meet the first criteria, he’s eliminated. If you get, say, ten guys who meet the first criteria, then you keep moving down the list until you only have one guy left. If you still have a few choices by the end, then you draw whiskers on your face and find yourself a clowder of strays.
Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot. The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held too tightly to your players. In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else while losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power.
If you have a sizable lead anywhere, strengthen weak spots. For instance, you have a 15 save lead over your nearest competitor, but a 25 save lead over the pack. You see a trade partner for your Mariano, but they’re only willing to give you Carlos Quentin. You try to convince yourself to do the trade, but decide Mariano is worth more. So in the end you fall 5 homers short of 1st place, but you’re 35 saves up on everyone. A Mariano in the hand is not worth two points in the standings. In one year leagues, now is not the time to be worrying about the intrinsic value of a player. Only worry about their value to your team.
Excess saves – chuck ‘em for what you need. Have Bourn, Rajai and Gardner — well, I’m not sure how you’re even competing — but trade them for some power. Recently, we traded Pence for Bourn in one league because we really needed steals. Would I have done that trade in March? Nah, no way, nuh-uh. But now? Absolutely had to, or pray Pence steals 25 bases in the 2nd half. You need to start acting now. There’s no time like the present… The present is a gift… Sleep with scratchy rear, wake with smelly finger… Fill in your own cliché. Just git r done!
Tim Stauffer – Way back when, Tim Stauffer was a stand-out hurler for the Richmond Spiders, sort of in my backyard. He was so good, the Padres made him the fourth pick of the 2003 draft.
Stauffer started out well, dominating A+, AA and AAA (168 IPs, 2.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9). While the strikeout totals were a bit low, there was definitely promise there.
Sure enough, next year, entirely at AAA, the Ks came back in a big way. He posted a 7.6 K/9 rate to match a darn impressive walk rate (2 BB/9). Unfortunately, that sterling performance didn’t translate well to the “important” columns as Stauffer posted a 5.14 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Still, he got the call in the summer of 2005, though he pitched poorly in 81 MLB innings.
The next season (2006) Stauffer was stationed mostly in AAA, where he saw his strikeouts dwindle and his walks increase. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness throughout most of the season and get just one start in the majors.
Then he lost the entire 2008 season to injury.
He returned to AAA in 2009 and fared pretty well in a small amount of innings (42). His walk rate was below two and he posted a 3.5 K:BB rate, which would play anywhere. The Padres recognized this and recalled him to San Diego, giving him his first real taste of the big leagues since 2005. Unfortunately, he was unable to replicate his AAA success over 14 starts for the parent club. While the ERA was shiny (3.58), his 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 rate and 1.56 K:BB rate were horrid.
Still, he got another opportunity in 2010, albeit mostly in relief. He excelled, tempting the Padres to make him a full-time starter, which they did in 2011.
So far, he is making management look good, posting a 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.15 K/9 rate and 2.09 BB/9 rate. There isn’t a ton of flukiness in his numbers either. The strand rate is a little on the high side and the home run rate is a little below 10% (just the benefits of playing in Petco). He is giving up a lot more line drives than last year, but he’s also pitching more and getting more swinging strikes.
There’s no real mirage here. Stauffer is a solid pitcher, capable of maintaining his K-rate and most of his peripherals. I don’t see him finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA, but it won’t be above 3.40. If you scooped him up when your leaguemate dropped him after initial struggles, feel free to send a taunting email, text Facebook poke, tweet, or DM.
Melky Cabrera – I can’t find the link, so I might be wrong, but the great (and I’m not being sarcastic) Rob Neyer once included Melky as one of the best building blocks in all of the majors. It wasn’t without reason.
Melk Man or Leche got off to a strong start in his career. He was signed at 17 and debuted in A- ball at 18. He went .283/.345/.355. While his power was lacking, there was no ignoring his ability to get on base.
While he didn’t raise his walk rate the following season at A+ and A-, he did post an impressive .304/.355/.446 line at only 19 – numbers that would play for most centerfielders.
Just three years after signing, and only 20 years old, Melky got his first taste of AAA. He didn’t fare so well (.248/.309/.366) but that didn’t dissuade the Yankees from bringing him up. Unfortunately, things didn’t go so well in his initial MLB experience (.211/.211/.211).
So, he was returned to AAA in 2006, though for only a short stay (31 games). After torching the ball (.385/.430/.566), the 21-year-old got the call and it looked like he’d never ride a bus in the minors again. In the majors, Melky posted a .280/.360/.391 line in 524 plate appearances.
In 2007, he hit a lot of ground balls, and his numbers dipped accordingly (.273/.327/.391). Still though, there was plenty of promise surrounding this 22-year-old centerfielder.
Unfortunately, Melky hit even more ground balls in 2007 and his numbers dipped considerably: .249/.301/.341.
Melky was briefly demoted to the minors that year, where he performed incredibly well. But there was no doubt about it, the Leche was tainted.
Still, he bounced back to play pretty well in 2009 (.274/.336/.416), but Brett Gardner made him expendable and the Yankees shipped him to Atlanta for that Javy Vazquez guy. Talk about everyone losing a trade.
He performed poorly for the Braves and was released. But since he was once a Brave and once good (hello Jeff Francoeur), the Royals decided to sign him. It made no sense at the time. Of course we forgot that you can be crazy like a fox instead of just plain ol’ crazy. The Melk Man has been fantastic this year (.286/.323/.451) with 2.7 WAR (that’s astounding). He is already in double digits for both homers and steals. The only real bizarre thing he is doing is hitting the ball with authority. He’s posting a 10.7% HR/FB rate, which is somewhat out of whack with his career (although he did post a similar rate in 2009).
Melky should wind up with at least 17 homers and steals, with an easy outside shot at 20+ in each category. I’m more inclined to bet on the 20+ steals, but who knows if the power will continue. He’s a better real life value, but if you’re rolling him out there, no reason his current pace can’t continue. I’m shocked.
By the way, Melky is the 38th ranked player in 5×5 roto. Wowsers.
Asdrubal Cabrera – What a whackadoodle career Cabrera has had so far. He is the first person named Asdrubal to appear in the ALCS and was the 14th player to turn an unassisted triple play.
In 2002, at 17, Cabrera was signed by the Mariners. About two years later, he debuted and played pretty well in low ball. In 2005, he played quite well at A and A+ ball, though he didn’t thrive in 25 PAs in AAA.
He struggled the following season for Tacoma (the Mariners’ AAA affiliate) and was traded to the Indians for Eduardo Perez. He didn’t play much better at Buffalo, but there was promise in the .263/.295/.337 line.
Still, the Indians decided to start the 21-year-old at AA the following year. He played exceptional: .310/.383/.454 and earned a promotion to AAA. This time he maintained his pace and earned a quick call to the majors. He looked like a star in the making in his initial major league stint, going .283/.354/.421 in 186 plate appearances.
However, he stumbled the following season, going just .259/.346/.366 – still impressive numbers from a 22-year-old middle infielder.
Finally, in 2009, at just 23, it looked like he put it all together: spinning a .308/.361/.438 masterpiece.
2010 appeared to be a breakout season for Cabrera; unfortunately, he was unhealthy throughout the season and not as effective as 2009. Going into 2011, Cabrera was largely an afterthought, yet he is by far the best healthy shortstop out there. At the break, he has 14 bombs, 12 steals and a .293/.347/.489 line.
He isn’t much different from the 2008-2009 versions. The line drive, fly ball and ground ball rates are right in line. Of course, his HR/FB rate is 13.7%, almost double his previous career high (6.7% in 2008). A 20/20 season is a foregone conclusion at this point. I do think we’ve seen the best half of his career for maybe a year or so. However, 7-9 more HRs and 10 more SBs seem certainly possible.
Unless Tulo gets hot, Cabrera could end up the #1 SS in all of the land.
Michael Morse – If you weren’t diligently following baseball around Y2K, Michael Morse is a name you probably weren’t aware of until the end of last year. However, had fantasy baseball and the internet been as big as it is now five or so years ago, Morse would have been just another Dallas McPherson.
Morse was a third round selection by the Chicago White Sox in 2000. He wouldn’t do anything overly impressive (unless you count getting slapped on the wrist with a 10-game suspension for using PEDs) until 2004, when he was 22 years old and split time between Seattle’s and Chicago’s AA affiliate.
Combined, he hit .281/.332/.505 with 17 HRs in just under 400 plate appearances. He had done so well for the White Sox that he was a somewhat major part of the Ben Davis/Freddy Garcia trade, which saw the White Sox part with Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Poor Jeremy Reed…
Morse began 2005 with the Mariners in AAA playing shortstop but his numbers fell off a cliff (.253/.317/.407). However, he made his major league debut and impressed (sort of), going .278/.347/.370 in 258 plate appearances (he did have a .341 BABIP).
The following year, he was again unsuccessful at AAA but surprisingly successful in the majors (.372/.396/.488), albeit in just 48 plate appearances. Unfortunately, his breakout was cut short by knee surgery on July 6.
He saw limited action in 2007 but tore the cover off the ball in spring training in 2008. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, as five games into the season, Morse tore his labrum. He wouldn’t play in the majors for the Mariners again, as they traded him for Ryan Langerhans in 2009.
For his new team, the Nationals, he flashed a little power promise in a small sample at the major league level after mashing AAA for the first time in his career. Then, he took off at the end of 2010 and has continued mashing in 2011. Over the last two seasons, in 552 plate appearances, Morse has gone .297/.353/.538 with a 162-game average of 29 homers. Right now, ZiPS (U) has him pegged for just eight more bombs, however I don’t see why he can’t double his total and come close to 30. The only thing holding Morse back is health. I don’t see him as much different than David Ortiz from here on out.
Ryan Vogelsong – The Giants made Vogelsong a fifth round draft pick in 1998. Yes, way back then. He would show some promise in low ball as a 20- and 21-year-old; however would find times difficult in AA.
In his first stint at Shreveport, in just 28.1 IPs, he had a 1.94 WHIP and allowed 12.7 hits per nine innings and 4.8 BB/9. The following year in 155 IPs, he wasn’t much better (1.43 WHIP, 8.9 H/9 and 4 BB/9). However, throughout his early career, he did show the ability to strike batters out.
That didn’t stop the Giants from promoting him in 2001 to AAA, as a seasoned 23-year-old. It looked like the move paid off, as Vogelsong pitched some darn good innings (0.91 WHIP, 5.4 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9). He performed so well that he was part of the Jason Schmidt trade – along with Armando Rios, he was sent to Pittsburgh for Schmidt and John Vander Wal.
He didn’t pitch quit as well in AAA for the Pirates, but still did good things. He would start two games in the majors for the Pirates and perform horribly, but it was just six innings and then he needed Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t get that taste of Pittsburgh for another year as he spent all of 2002 in the minors, not pitching particularly well while he was recovering. Finally, all the way back from surgery, Vogelsong spent all of 2004 in the majors. He appeared in 31 games, 26 as a starter, and allowed 10 hits per nine IPs, 4.5 BB/9 and only struck out 6.2 batters per nine.
That was it for him as a starter for the Pirates. He’d appear in 64 games over the next two seasons and not exhibit much promise. After 2006, he played in Japan for three years and came back stateside in 2010 to pitch poorly for the Angels and Phillies in AAA. Then the Giants signed him in 2011. He pitched incredibly well in just 11.1 AAA innings, and with a little luck, got the call. Since then he has done nothing but be exceptional: 2.67 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, i.e. a 2.74 K:BB rate. He has allowed only 66 hits in 77.2 IPs. Sure, he’s been the benefit of some good bounces (83.1% strand rate and .262 BABIP), but he has allowed only a 17.8% line drive rate and is racking up the ground balls (45.2%).
You can flip a coin between his performance and Chris Carpenter rest of the way. I’ll take Vogelsong, as a final line will look a lot like: 3.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.30 K/9. What a story.
Jacoby Ellsbury – Remember way back to 2010 when some fantasy baseball writers thought Ellsbury was easily a top 10 performer? You don’t? Was your memory erased by his putrid .192/.241/.244 line with just seven steals?
While a lot of that had to do with a crippling early injury, Ellsbury was a bit of a black sheep heading into 2011. I wanted to like him, I just didn’t want to be ridiculed again. Well, I do own him everywhere – I really thought his sixth round price tag was a steal. He now sits with a .296/.357/.450 line with nine homers and 25 steals. Carl Crawford, eat your heart out.
Realistically, what I saw in Ellsbury pre-2010 was the ability to put up prolific SB numbers while profiling to add high teens HRs. I see virtually nothing to suggest his career year will not continue for years to come. He could push 20 HRs and 50 SBs, he’ll likely fall short of both, but when we think about “this year’s Carlos Gonzalez” it has to be Jacoby Ellsbury.
Ian Kennedy – Unlike most ball players, things started out rosy for Kennedy, the 21st overall pick in 2006. He acquitted himself quite well in his first season in the minors in 2007: 1.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.6 H/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 10 K/9 across A, AA and AAA ball. In 34.2 innings at AAA, he struck out 34 batters and walked just 11. He earned the call to the major league squad and pitched a darn impressive 19 innings, including winning his major league debut.
Unfortunately, baseball is never that kind. His beginning to 2008 in the majors went horrible. After his start on May 27, he had a 7.41 ERA and was placed on the DL. After coming off the DL, he was dispatched to the minor leagues, where he again dominated.
Then, at the beginning of the 2009 season, Kennedy was diagnosed with an aneurysm under his right armpit (gross) and had surgery in May. Between the majors and minors, he’d get just 23 innings in. Then, in December, he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his 310.2 IPs for the DBacks, Kennedy has a 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 7.5 H/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 rates. After allowing a .256 average on balls in play last year, Kennedy is at it again with a .264 mark this year.
While his line drive rate is slightly elevated this year, his ground ball rate has gone up with it and his walk rate has gone down. I don’t think he’ll flirt with a sub-3.00 ERA all year, but he should sit comfortable around 3.25 with a very palatable WHIP and at least 70 more Ks.
I usually like to wait a couple of months into the season to look at some of the catchers that couldn’t throw out your grandma even if she loses the tennis balls off her walker. (What is the deal with those tennis balls? I feel like that’s the kinda nonsense thing that would have a Facebook Fan Page. Everyone who likes tennis balls on walkers! Yay! BTW, what did people do before Facebook? Oh, yeah, Myspace. BTW II, The Return of BTW, is there anything sadder than getting an email from Friendster. Hey, come check out the new Friendster! Sure, as soon as I get on the internet with this dial-up modem.) Or some of the catchers that are quite agile — hey, it’s Italian! I wait a few months because new catchers come into the league and I like to see a decent sample size — that’s what she said! Anyway, here’s some of the best and worst catchers for fantasy baseball:
The Bad
Jonathan Lucroy – Has only thrown out 6 baserunners out of 33. And he doesn’t even get to try and throw out Prince Fielder. “Pretend 2nd base is a vegan muffin…Now run!”
John Jaso – 7 caught out of 35. And John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt doesn’t have to try and throw out Upton.
Rod Barajas – He’s pretty tizzerrible, but Dioner, his backup, is less so. And less Jaso, for that matter.
A.J. Pierzynski – The most runners have tried to go on A.J. outside of McCann. From my two years in Kenya, I can tell you runners are total gossipers and they probably talk about how you can run on A.J.
Josh Thole – This post is an asset for short schedule days when you pick up a guy for one day to try and score a steal. Thole, like Barajas, makes that hard because his backup is good at throwing out runners.
Jason Varitek/Jarrod Saltymochachino – The above comment for Thole doesn’t hold weight with this dynamic duo. You, eating the Cheetos and scratching your underarm? You could steal on these two.
Eli Whiteside – Eli doesn’t like to catch people stealing. He likes to guilt them into not doing it.
The Good
Lou Marson – 13 caught, 14 allowed. While Carlos Santana isn’t smooth at throwing out runners, you do not run on Lou Marson. His last name anagrams to No Arms, but that shizz is a misnomer.
Ivan Rodriguez – 9 caught, 10 allowed. Hey, maybe Boras can get him another $5 million now.
Wilson Ramos – Though Boras will have to try with another team, because Ramos is just as nasty — 12 caught, only 16 allowed.
Matt Wieters – 18-for-46. Too bad that’s never his batting line over a week.
