Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jesus Guzman – Over 11 years ago, in 2000, when Guzman was 16, he signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners. The Venezuelan wouldn’t see real minor league action until 2004, when he debuted at A+ ball. He acquitted himself quite well, going .310/.393/.443.

The following year he played entirely at AA ball. He was 21, but didn’t flash a ton of promise (.258/.330/.393). He also hit only nine homers and stole only six bases. What’s worse, he was caught stealing 11 times.

Not surprisingly, the Mariners made Guzman repeat AA in 2006. Now 22, he had to get his mojo going. Unfortunately, 2006 looked a lot like 2005: .257/.335/.382 with nine homers and seven steals (albeit he was only caught three times).
At 23, Guzman was going backward, as the Mariners kept him at A+ ball for the duration of 2007. He played well, but, at that age and repeating such a low level, the success was almost meaningless. On October 29, 2007, he was granted free agency.

He wouldn’t be a fish out of water for long, as Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics scooped him up on November 16. He spent the majority of his time at AA for the Athletics and played quite well: .364/.419/.560 with 14 homers. After 80 games at AA, the A’s promoted him to AAA, where things stalled out once again: .237/.281/.373.

Guzman again found himself a free agent on November 3, 2008. However, he wouldn’t wait long, as he signed a contract with the team across the bay just 15 days later. Guzman destroyed the ball in Spring Training for the Giants and showed much prowess as a 25-year-old in the Pacific Coast League (.321/.379/.507). He earned a quick cup of coffee with the Giants but didn’t do anything outstanding in just 20 plate appearances.

Unfortunately for Guzman, the Giants brought in a slew of veterans to clog the corners and he spent the entirety of 2010 in AAA (where he looked pretty good: .321/.376/.510).

Before 2011, with Brandon Belt on the way and Aubrey Huff inked to a two-year deal, Guzman was again granted free agency. But the Padres waited just 14 days to sign Guzman. If you are scoring at home, during his migration down the coast, Guzman never spent more than 18 days as a free agent after signing with the Mariners as a 16-year-old.

With Adrian Gonzalez gone and a couple of corner prospects in Kyle Blanks and Anthony Rizzo that were likely a bit away from the majors, the Padres started Guzman off in AAA in the Pacific Coast League. While it is a notorious hitter’s haven, you can’t doubt the success Guzman had: .332/.423/.529 with eight homers in 63 games.

Sure, he was repeating the league and he is now 27 years old, but dude could rake and deserved a shot. Well, on June 17, at Minnesota of all places, Guzman got the start. He went 2-4, but wouldn’t get full time duties for some time. However, by the end of June, in 30 plate appearances, Guzman had a .310/.333/.552 line.

Still splitting time throughout July, Guzman got better: going .345/.400/.636 in 60 plate appearances. And he hasn’t slowed down in August, getting a hit in 10 of 11 games he has appeared in.

I love the Jesus Guzman story. I love that I own him in a bunch of deep leagues and you should too. While he likely won’t maintain his .371 BABIP, his 20.9% line drive rate and 12.5% HR/FB rate aren’t flukes. He swings and misses a good chunk and doesn’t walk a lot, but his power is real and sustainable. I see no reason why he can’t finish with an average around .325, a sweet .355 OBP, and a nice .510 slugging percentage. At least five more homers seem like money in the bank. Buy the Guzman stats and buy the story, grab him now.

Dexter Fowler – Fowler, born four years and nine days after me, was a 14th round selection in the 2004 draft. He’d appear in 62 games in rookie ball in 2005 and look decent enough (.273/.357/.409) to earn a promotion the following season to A ball.

And Fowler shined (.296/.373/.462) with 43 steals albeit in 66 attempts (not the best success rate). Still, going into the following year, 2007, Fowler was rated the #48 best prospect.  Unfortunately, Fowler suffered injuries to his right hand and appeared in just 65 games at A+ ball. He looked good, but took a step back to #74 in the prospect rankings.

However, that didn’t stop the Rockies from promoting him the following season. In 2008, in his first taste of AA, Fowler went .335/.431/.515 and earned his first espresso in the majors. He made his debut the same day he earned his call up and pinch ran in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Giants. Unfortunately, he was picked off first base.

Still, going into 2009, he was ranked the #15 best prospect and spent the majority of the season in the majors going .266/.363/.406 with 27 steals in 37 attempts. He posted a reasonable walk rate (12.9%) but his .351 BABIP was a tad dangerous (even though it was paired with a 21% line drive rate).

Clearly, it seemed like the groundwork was laid for a 2010 season full of stolen bases. Unfortunately, his walk rate dipped, his ground balls increased, his BABIP fell to .328 and his OBP dropped to .347. This resulted in just 13 steals in 21 attempts – a horrible ratio for a no-power guy.

Going into 2011, Fowler was an afterthought in a crowded and star-studded Rockies lineup. However, he has generated a .265/.366/.401 line (eerily similar to 2009). But if you check underneath the hood, while his line drive rate has increased slightly over the past two years, he is striking out more and his BABIP is .377. What’s worse, Fowler is just 8/16 in stolen base attempts.

Still, there is room for optimism. Over the last 30 days, Fowler has gone 30/92 with six steals and a .426 OBP. Sure, his BABIP over the last 28 days is .448, but you have to have skills to do that. Fowler is someone to keep an eye on down the stretch. If he can keep hitting line drives and figures out a way to steal successfully, Fowler could be a decent boon to your steals. In addition, I’d take this as an audition for your 2012 fantasy squad. I believe in Fowler long-term.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I’m about to tell you something I bet you didn’t know. Salty has the longest last name in the illustrious history of Major League Baseball. The inability to spell/pronounce his surname didn’t hinder his draft potential, as he was a first round selection by the Atlanta Braves in 2003, right out of high school.

He did some nice things, especially for a catcher, in his first two minor league seasons in rookie and A ball. However, he truly burst onto the scene in 2005, going .314/.394/.519 in A+ ball. Before 2006, he was the #18 ranked prospect. While he slipped a little in 2006 (hitting just .230/.353/.380) at AA, he was just 21 and, my oh my, look at that on base percentage – that’s tops.

Before 2007, he was the #36 ranked prospect. He said the hell with that ranking, I deserve a top slot. He murdered AA: .309/.404/.617 in 22 games. He earned his way onto a contending Braves team, where he would exhibit some chops: .284/.333/.411 in 47 games. He was 22 and a catcher. No wonder the Rangers coveted him (not to mention Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison). On July 31, he’d be traded along with the aforementioned trio to the Texas Rangers for Mark Texeira and Ron Mahay.

As an aside, that trade almost looks as bad as the Glenn Davis for Steve Finley-Curt Schilling-Pete Harnisch swap the Orioles did. It’s amazing that the Braves had enough minor league talent to not even skip a beat (for the most part) after that.

Back to Salty – he wouldn’t perform quite as well with the Rangers (.251/.290/.431) but his power increased and he finished with an impressive .266/.310/.422. We had our next Mike Piazza. Well, there’s a reason Mike Piazza has few equals. Salty would struggle with injuries and inconsistency in 2008, playing just 61 games in the majors. He finished with a .253/.352/.364 line, which isn’t horrible, but was aided by a .385 BABIP. The lack of power and skyrocketing K-rate (it was 32.3%) were definitely disconcerting.

Unfortunately, Salty continued his downward spiral in 2009. His walk rate plummeted, his Ks maintained and his BABIP normalized, resulting in a .223/.290/.371 line in 84 games. While his isolated power moved back toward his respectable 2007 number, he hit fewer line drives and fly balls and more ground balls – not a recipe for success when you run like a catcher and play in a hitter’s park.

Then, just two games into the 2010 season, Salty was put on the DL. When he was ready to come off, he found himself completely lost and in AAA. He struggled with the bat and with his throws back to the pitcher. The Red Sox swooped in with some cash and a few prospects and scooped Salty off the Rangers’ hands.  Salty did nothing for the Red Sox in 2010 and it appeared Salty’s star had fizzled completely, especially after a rough start to 2011.

However, he has turned things around in Boston. After 266 plate appearances, he has a 28.8% K-rate (which is a huge improvement) and has traded ground balls for fly balls – a smart thing to do in Fenway Park. While his walk rate hasn’t gotten to the double digit promise that seemed all but certain a few years ago, his .317 OBP is nothing to sneeze at from a 26-year-old catcher with a .209 ISO and .462 slugging percentage.

There is absolutely nothing crazy about Salty’s season. It will likely be the building block to a long and successful career. However, there is one underlying problem with Salty’s career today: his splits. He owns a career .274/.343/.447 line against righties but a .209/.268/.334 line against lefties. He hasn’t been much better this year.

Still, the Red Sox are smart enough to ensure he sees most of his at bats against righties. As long as Salty continues to take advantage of his home ball park and takes a few small steps in his pitch recognition, he could be a prime backstop for the next several years. If we’re looking at the rest of the season, I could see him being a top 5-7 option down the stretch. Certainly, McCann, Mauer, Napoli, Martinez (although look at his splits), and Carlos Santana will be in the mix as well.

The other day I went over picking up free agent hitters.  So now I do onto pitchers as I did onto hitters.  I opined that there were five things to look for with hitters, after looking up what opined meant.  Most of the criteria had to do with the hitter and not so much who he was facing.  It factored in, but didn’t dominate the decision.  If you feel like pitchers are going in the opposite direction, your powers of perception are incredible.  It is a true wonder how you’re divorced multiple times.  Put yourself on the free agent market, you catch you!  Pitchers are a lot harder to figure.  The pitcher can really only do so much.  I try to not even concern myself with wins.  It’s a crapshoot.  This is more for H2H than roto, but sometimes in roto you want a spot start too.  I ain’t mad at cha!  So here’s what I do concern myself with when picking up spot starters in fantasy baseball:

1. How well have they pitched in their last two games? – I don’t need a huge sample size here.  I don’t need an under 2 ERA.  I’m just looking to avoid a guy who is going to kill me.  If a guy has been rocked for the last two games, he’s a pass.  If a guy was rocked two starts ago, then pitched well in last start, he’s a possibility depending on how well he passes the next tests.

2. Is he going against a team that is struggling? – The Astros, M’s, Padres, Pirates or Giants hitters can make an All-Star pitcher out of Whitey Ford.  And Whitey Ford is 107 years old.

3. Is he pitching in a pitcher’s park? – As I said in the opening, a lot of this has nothing to do with the pitcher.  I wasn’t lying.  Joe Saunders is crizzap.  Joe Saunders in Petco is crizzap with a chance for an okay game.

4. How’s the other team against a certain side? – This usually only applies to lefties, because if a team is bad against righties then they’re just bad.  The White Sox, for instance, are not good vs. lefties.  Thanks, Dunn!

5. Can he give you something else you might need? – This is pretty much only for H2H.  Even if the pitcher gets rocked, will he get me some Ks?  Should his team win even if he’ll probably give up 4+ runs?  These are team specific questions.  Can you forfeit certain categories while hoping for other ones?  Can you take getting tied to the WHIPping post while being bludgeoned with the ERA stick?  Can you make love out of nothing at all?

Carlos Quentin – He was that guy from your high school who was incredible at everything. He was Lance Harbor before the injury, or Jason Street. You name it, Quentin did it. He was an amazing football player, was on a state champion high school basketball team, and was the San Diego Male Athlete of the Year in 2000.

He took his talents to Stanford, where he continued his success (Stanford made the championship game in 2003) with new teammates Sam Fuld and Jed Lowrie. He finished his career at Stanford with a .350 average, 35 bombs, 170 RBIs, and 26 SBs in just 199 games. Oh and he married an All-American track runner.

The Diamondbacks selected Quentin with the 29th pick in the 2003 draft. Unfortunately, he had to sit out 2003 because of Tommy John surgery – a slight non-Lance Harbor type of injury. In 2004, he came back with a vengeance, destroying minor league pitching to the tune of a .332/.435/.549 line.

He easily earned the promotion to AAA the following season and again excelled: .301/.422/.522. Before 2006, he was named the 20th best prospect throughout the minor leagues.

He was quickly promoted to the majors in 2006, and hit a homer in his third major league at bat. In 191 MLB plate appearances that year, he held his own with a .253/.342/.530 line with nine homers.

After that, unfortunately, is where things began to unravel. Quentin partially tore his labrum in Spring Training the next year, delaying his season debut to mid-April. He struggled early and was demoted to AAA on July 6.

Back amongst the boys, this man returned to his dominating self. Quentin looked prime for a rebound in 2008. However, the Diamondbacks thought otherwise and shipped him to Chicago for Chris Carter (then a low A first baseman at the top of the Sox prospect list). Carter was then packaged with a few other familiar names (Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and others) and sent to Oakland for Dan Haren.

While the Sox had not had the best track record in deals with the Diamondbacks of late, this was a clear win. Fully healthy, Quentin stormed out of the gates and put together a sterling final line: .288/.394/.571 and 36 HRs. These numbers could have been even better if Quentin had not hurt himself by slamming his bat in anger on September 5. The injury was severe enough to require surgery, and thereby end Quentin’s season prematurely.

Healthy, Quentin started well in 2009, but then began to suffer from plantar fasciitis and soon found himself on the DL finishing with a rocky and unimpressive season.

The next season wasn’t much different. Quentin was mostly healthy, but incredibly streaky. While playing poor defense, he finished with a .243/.342/.479 line.

At this point, he looked like a source for decent power but not much else. However, when looking deeper, he did have a poor (by his standards) .241 BABIP that season, which could have caused some of the horrid average. Of course, he just wasn’t hitting the ball with authority. His line drive rate was a putrid 13.9% (the lowest of his career) and he was swinging and missing more than he had previously with the White Sox. That said, his ground ball rate didn’t really spike and his HR/FB rate was still hovering around a perfectly normal 14%. It wouldn’t be hard to paint 2010 as somewhat flukey in the wrong direction.

Sure enough, in 2011, Quentin’s BABIP is .268, his average is a serviceable .261 and he has hit 20 HRs. Quentin is an elite power source. He is capable of pacing 35 HRs and maintaining a non-lethal average.

Cameron Maybin – He was(is) the next Ken Griffey, Jr. – at least according to some of his early managers. And, early on, this didn’t appear to be an offensive exaggeration. As a high school player in 2004, Maybin was the Connie Mack World Series MVP, won that tournament’s batting title, and was voted the 2004 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year.

He entered the MLB draft after high school and was selected 10th overall by the Detroit Tigers in 2005. In A ball, at just 19-years-old, Maybin was a force: .304/.387/.457 with nine HRs and 27 steals. Sure, he struck out 116 times in 445 plate appearances, but he was young, he was Nuke Laloosh.

He followed his 2006 minor league destruction campaign with an equally impressive 2007 season. Spread across Rookie, A+ and AA ball, Maybin hit .316/.409/.523 – what’s more, he limited his Ks and increased his walks.

Numbers like this are hard to ignore; Maybin quickly earned an espresso in the majors. While his final line was unimpressive (.143/.208/.265) with 21 Ks and just three walks, the talent was there. In his second game for the Tigers, Maybin got his first hit (a single), homer, and stolen base. The hits came off Roger Clemens, who promptly plunked him in after his homer.

That offseason, he was the sixth ranked prospect and one of the major pieces the Tigers used to acquire Miguel Cabrera and his attendant baggage (Dontrelle Willis). The Marlins put Maybin in AA, where he was okay (.277/.375/.456), but not great (124 Ks and only 60 walks).

In 2009, the Marlins started him in centerfield on opening day. However, he struggled a bit and was demoted to AAA. He succeeded immensely there (.319/.399/.463 with just 58 Ks to 38 walks in 343 plate appearances) and rejoined the Marlins later in the season. Ultimately, he accumulated 199 MLB plate appearances in which he showed promise (.250/.318/.409) with 51 Ks and 17 walks.

He again would scuffle in the majors and dominate minor league pitching in 2010. Throughout his minor league career, Maybin deservedly earned an amazing amount of honors:

•    Twice an All-Star Futures Game selection
•    Arizona Fall League Rising Stars
•    Southern League Mid-Season All-Star
•    Baseball America High Class A All-Star
•    Florida State League Postseason All-Star
•    Florida State League Mid-Season All-Star
•    Baseball America Low Class A All-Star
•    Midwest League Prospect of the Year

Not enough for the Marlins, who apparently though they had a better centerfielder in the organization, the organization dealt Maybin to San Diego for a couple of relievers in the offseason. For the Padres, Maybin has maintained his walk rate north of 7% and cut down on his Ks. While that is important, his BABIP is high (.353), given no change in his contact and line drive rates.

Still, Maybin is just 24 years old and on his way to putting up a .272/.329/.410 line with double digits homers and 37-40 steals. He’ll be good for several wins above a replacement player and could be a breakout player next season. Currently he’s a better real life player than fantasy, but he should help with steals down the stretch, which makes him a nice subtle move in keeper/dynasty leagues.

I’m a major believer in Maybin long-term as an Ellsbury-lite.

Emilio Bonifacio – At just 16, Bonifacio was signed by Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001. He’d make his debut two years later and hit quite poorly in A ball (.199/.298/.219).

The following season, again at A ball, Bonifacio showed a little more promise (.260/.306/.319) with 122 Ks against just 25 walks. He repeated the level the following season and acquitted himself well. By cutting down on his Ks and increasing his walks, Bonifacio was able to post a .270/.341/.330 line with 55 steals.

In 2006 he started at A+ and took off: .321/.375/.449 with 61 steals and 104 Ks against 44 walks.  The following year, at AA, Bonifacio began to look like a future major leaguer: .285/.333/.352 with 41 steals. In fact, these numbers earned him his first cup of coffee later that season, appearing in 11 games for the Diamondbacks, though not doing anything of positive note.

Bonifacio returned to Tucson the following year and continued to play well (.302/.348/.387). So well, in fact, that the Diamondbacks dealt him to the Washington Nationals for Jon Rauch later that season. Bonifacio continued to play well for the Nationals AAA club (.452/.500/.516) in the eight games after the trade and was quickly called up. He didn’t do much for the Nats in the majors, but didn’t look completely lost out there either (.248/.305/.344).

The Nats parlayed Bonifacio’s potential into Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen before the 2009 season. The Marlins installed Bonifacio as their everyday third baseman that year and he started off with a bang by hitting an inside the park homer on Opening Day. While his first month created quite a stir, his season ended up rather pedestrian (.252/.303/.308 with 21 steals in 30 chances).

The following season, he split time between the majors and minors and didn’t do anything particularly special (aside from going a perfect 12/12 in SB attempts).

Still, going into 2011, he was just 26 and the Marlins envisioned him as a sort of super utility guy. Indeed, he has played everywhere, and has looked quite good (.297/.373/.381 with 23 steals in 27 attempts). He is also 37 for his last 96 with 26 runs and 18 steals in that stretch. Of course, he also has a ridiculous .478 BABIP over the last 28 days.

While Bonifacio has typically had a highish BABIP throughout his career, his .375 mark this season is a bit otherworldly given his contact and line drive rates. Bonifacio is not a complete mirage; he has increased his walk rate and cut down on his Ks. So, Bonifacio remains a fine player, capable of hitting .275 with 35-40 steals. Obviously, his recent hot streak is a nice thing to ride, but think of him more as a middling average player, with no pop, who can steal a decent amount of bases. Basically, he’s a Juan Pierre-lite (you know back when Juan Pierre was sort of good at baseball).

Is there anything more fulfilling than grabbing a hitter on a short schedule day and he gives you a home run, steal or just an overall quality day? It’s the fantasy baseball equivalent to taking a girl out, she pays and has sex with you (assuming you’re not a paid escort, though I’m pretty sure there’s not that many paid escorts reading a fantasy baseball blog). It’s pay dirt of the fantasy baseball kind. So how does one with the ‘pertise of me find a waiver wire hitter on a short schedule day? Darts at a board? A Ouija board? Draw whiskers on my face, infiltrate a clowder of stray cats and hold pictures of Will Venable and David Murphy up to see which one the cats are attracted to? Sometimes it’s all the above. But before I resort to dumb luck, I usually look for these five criteria:

1. Playing time – There’s nothing worse than picking up a hitter for one day and he doesn’t play. I usually sort by ABs for the last week to make sure the top free agents are playing. If there’s even a chance they might not play, I usually look elsewhere.

2. Is the guy currently hitting? – Hitters tend to do what they should do over the course of a season, but from day to day and week to week guys go in and out of slumps. If you’re picking up a guy for only one day, you want a guy that is hitting. If he’s in a 0-for-45 slump, you’re probably better taking an 0-for-0 and going to grab a bite to eat at Whataburger. To pinpoint guys that are hitting, I sort by hits in the last week. There’s usually overlap between guys who are getting playing time. Otherwise, their managers should be fired.  I can think of a few.

3. Righty/Lefty Splits – If a guy is hitting well over the last week but is going against his notoriously weaker side, he’s a pass. This usually goes for lefties facing lefties. Righties that are going against righties don’t give me as much pause, unless we’re talking about Matt Diaz. Speaking of which, if a guy is going against a side he absolutely kills then he’s almost an automatic start since I assume his manager will start him too.

4. Hitter/Pitcher Matchups – This is a continuation of the splits. If a guy hits a particular pitcher very well, he’s a go. Contrary to the above splits though, if a guy is hitting well and hasn’t hit a particular pitcher well, he could still be a go if all else fails.

5. The Park and Team Factor – The last thing I look at is where they’ll be playing. If it’s between two guys and one’s at Coors and one’s at Petco, I obviously choose Colorado. If a player’s team is currently hitting well then I’ll go with him over a guy whose team is struggling. The thinking is he’ll at least have some chances for RBIs and Runs.

These are in order of importance. If a player doesn’t meet the first criteria, he’s eliminated. If you get, say, ten guys who meet the first criteria, then you keep moving down the list until you only have one guy left. If you still have a few choices by the end, then you draw whiskers on your face and find yourself a clowder of strays.

Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot.  The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held too tightly to your players.  In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else while losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power.

If you have a sizable lead anywhere, strengthen weak spots.  For instance, you have a 15 save lead over your nearest competitor, but a 25 save lead over the pack.  You see a trade partner for your Mariano, but they’re only willing to give you Carlos Quentin.  You try to convince yourself to do the trade, but decide Mariano is worth more.  So in the end you fall 5 homers short of 1st place, but you’re 35 saves up on everyone.  A Mariano in the hand is not worth two points in the standings.  In one year leagues, now is not the time to be worrying about the intrinsic value of a player.  Only worry about their value to your team.

Excess saves – chuck ‘em for what you need.  Have Bourn, Rajai and Gardner — well, I’m not sure how you’re even competing — but trade them for some power.  Recently, we traded Pence for Bourn in one league because we really needed steals.  Would I have done that trade in March?  Nah, no way, nuh-uh.  But now?  Absolutely had to, or pray Pence steals 25 bases in the 2nd half.  You need to start acting now.  There’s no time like the present… The present is a gift… Sleep with scratchy rear, wake with smelly finger… Fill in your own cliché.  Just git r done!