Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September.  If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August.  Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners.  It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll.  So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is.  I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla).  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:

Tuesday, September 15th

Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. the Mariners in Seattle.

Robinson Tejada – Has 69 Ks in 53 1/3 innings.  Goes vs. the Tigers, who he just beat.  It’s risky because I don’t trust the 2nd time being the charm.  Teams figure a guy out usually, but he could give you some cheap Ks.

Wade LeBlanc – Has two solid back-to-back starts and he faces a K-razy offense (Diamondbacks) in Petco.

Wednesday, September 16th

Doug Davis – Has a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings vs. the Padres and hasn’t given up one earned run in Petco in two years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Has four straight solid starts and a serial killer name.

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t had an embarrassing start since July 8th and he gets the Pirates.

Thursday, September 17th

Justin Masterson – vs. the A’s and I wouldn’t start him here unless you’re in absolute dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Friday, September 18th

Brian Duensing – You’d think I really liked him with the amount I’m talking about him, but he’s worth a flier for a start or two.

Vicente Padilla – He actually just shut out the Giants, which scares me more than it instills confidence, but it’s still a decent match-up.

Saturday, September 19th

Brett Tomko – Shoot me now for suggesting Tomko.

Jason Hammel – Has an ERA around 3 away from Coors and he gets the swing happy Diamondbacks.  This is still a risky start because Chase is a hitters park.

Sunday, September 20th

Paul Maholm – It’s not as great to face the Padres away from Petco, but it’s not that bad either.

Carl Pavano – Gets the Tigers on Sunday and has absolutely owned them this year.  In over 30 innings, he has a 1.48 ERA and 4 wins.  And, just think, you can tell your lady friend you had the cojones to start Pavano.

In roto, you can can’t gain ground in many categories in September, unless you’re already close.  The two categories you can conceivably gain ground in is in steals and saves — SAGNOF!  If you are up in power, or at least far enough that you can’t be caught by the team right behind you, then I’d stack up on guys that could get you some steals.  As for saves, you probably don’t have as many options on waivers.  But there’s a some guys that might get a save or two in the final few weeks, and, well, every save counts.  Anyway, here’s some guys that can provide steals and saves this week in fantasy baseball:

STEALS

Drew Stubbs – He has 5 homers and 3 steals in the majors in two weeks.  He had 3 homers and 46 steals in 5 months in Triple-A.  Maybe he sleeps with a 1996 Brady Anderson card under his pillow.

Michael Brantley -With Sizemore out with elbow surgery he probably could’ve had in May (but then the Indians would’ve lost 95 games instead of 90), Brantley’s seeing time.  He had 46 steals in Triple-A in 51 chances.

Everth Cabrera – EverCab’s linear notes tell us he has 21 steals in 80 games so far.

Angel Pagan – Pagan stole 52 bases one year in the low minors.  So he has the speed (his hitting chops are the issue).

Chris Getz – Four steals in the last six games.  He ain’t glamorous, but Angel Pagan is?

Brett Gardner – Could have some deep Al-Only value for speed.

Eugenio Velez – Velez is one of the few guys that when he’s standing in the batter’s box, you can read everything on the backstop.  This doode needs a serious convo with Davey Lopes.  “Velez, you’re 120 lbs.  How about you run once in a while?  Thank you.”

SAVES

Matt Lindstrom/Kiko Calero – Leo Nunez has looked blechtastic in his last few games.  Lindstrom hasn’t looked much better, but the Marlins need to win the rest of their games so they may try Lindstrom or even Calero.

Phil Hughes – With the Yankees coasting towards the playoffs, Hughes may see some late inning chances as the Yankees try to Dorian Gray Mariano.

Brett Myers – The Phillies may be waiting for Lidge to blow a seven run lead by giving up eight consecutive homers.  I guess what I’m saying is that Myers could be better than Lidge right now, but tell that to the Phils who have trotted Lidge out for the last five months.

Brandon Lyon – Because Fernando Rodney’s been taking anger management classes with Brett Myers.

Chris Perez – I think at some point in the last week or two the Indians will give Perez an opportunity to impress in the ninth.

Kevin Jepsen – File this away with Hughes’s potential saves.  As the Angels lock up the division, they could rest Fuentes.

J.P. Wheelerfourger – The Rays bullpen is in tatters… Shattered.  Key syllable is shat.  Shoot, Price could figure into this closer picture if Howell continues to botch the job. (I love the word botch and I really don’t use it enough.  Maybe that’ll be my 2010 resolution.)

Scott Downs/Jason Frasor – It’s been so long since the Jays got a save, I’m honestly not even sure who their closer is.

Angel Guzman – Really no reason why Marmol loses the job… Right now.  Member he’s been prone to blow-ups in the past.  I kinda just want Guzman to take over so I can hear what song he uses for his entrance music.  Shaggy?  Aerosmith? Real Life?  Whatever it is, it’s sure to be lame.

I’m not going to lie. It’s hard to make up ground in the standings this late in the season.  Your fantasy baseball trading deadline has probably passed, so you’re left with playing hot hands off of waivers.  You need to make sure you don’t hold until guys just for their names.  In June or even July, I wouldn’t tell you to lose, say, Jermaine Dye for Matt LaPorta or Andy Marte, but it’s a whole new ballgame in September.  There’s only so much your top players can even do in one month.  For instance, Carlos Lee hasn’t had a month of more than 5 homers all year.  If you really don’t need homers and you’re dying for steals, playing Carlos Lee over, say, Andrew McCutchen isn’t going to get you anywhere.

This goes even more so for Head-to-Head leagues.  If you’re heading into the playoffs, or are in the last week of the regular season, it’s really time to put allegiances aside.  H2H leagues are won in the last few weeks, so pitching match-ups and most recent starts need to be looked at for everyone.  I wouldn’t ever tell you to play, say, Ryan Rowland-Smith over James Shields, but in an H2H league in September, it’s the kind of switch off that you may need to look at.  Trust me, it’s a lot better to win with Ryan Rowland-Smith than it is to lose because your opponent grabbed him.  As the season progresses, risk needs to be managed, not feared.  In September, throw your business management cliches out the window and go for the win.

Lastly, there’s also the fantasy baseball strategy of screwing your opponent before they can screw you.  If you know your opponent needs to start three pitchers to overtake you and there’s ten potential candidates for them to pick up, grab the top three options before they can.  I.e., force their hand.  Push them to pick up some schmohawks like Mitchell Boggs, Craig Stammen and Brian Moehler.  As every hitting coach, who’s worth his money will tell you, make Craig Stammen beat you.

The Verducci Effect as explained by Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.”  So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger).  In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise.  If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped.  Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:

Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos.

Brett Cecil – At about even with his workload from last year.  Ricciardi will probably put the brakes on Cecil in September, if he can’t trade him for Pujols before then.

Josh Johnson – He’s pitched a lot of innings before, but not last year and he’s already complained of a weak shoulder this year.  I don’t think he gets shutdown, but it might be an acorn to store over the winter in that giant cave of useless facts that sits on your shoulders.

Joba Chamberlain – Already 20 innings over from last year and the Yankees are already skipping him.  “Joba Rules” currently are start every 9th day and give up four runs.

Clay Buchholz – Where there’s a Yankee mention, there needs to be a Red Sox mention.  That’s in the Sports Blog Handbook.

Rick Porcello – He’s already being skipped and will probably get shutdown quick-fast in September.

Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.  The only thing that’s keeping his innings in check is his inability to get out of the 6th inning.

David Price – Nice to see he’ll be unusable next year too so I have a reason to avoid him in drafts.

Yovani Gallardo – His jump from 2008 to 2009 will be insane, but in 2007 he pitched almost 190 innings.  So it shouldn’t be until late September when he’s technically in the red.

Brett Anderson/Dallas Braden/Trevor Cahill – Already over their workload from the previous year.  Then again, Beane will probably pitch them through September then trade them for three number one picks.

Tommy Hanson – Has about 30 innings left before he’s in the red.  If you own him, you’re already in the black, your leaguemates are blue and my bathroom walls are eggshell.

Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding.  In today’s installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, we’re going to look at some players since July 1st and try to figure out if maybe the numbers tell a different story than their names tell.  At this point in the season, it’s very important to abandon names and just try and plug in the best stats.  Anyway, here’s the latest in Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers:

Player A – From July 1st, 142 ABs, 27/1/9/.366/20
Player B – From July 1st, 118 ABs, 17/2/11/.263/1
Player C – From July 1st, 140 ABs, 27/2/19/.319/5

Player A is Nyjer Morgan, Player B is Brad Hawpe, Player C is Gerardo Parra – Otherwise known as, “Why is Hawpe the meat in a schmohawk sandwich?  Wait, is Hawpe a schmohawk? Or is he the meat?  The schmohawk or the meat?!  Someone tell me!”

Player A – From July 1st, 125 ABs, 26/3/22/.368/4
Player B – From July 1st, 122 ABs, 21/3/14/.286/6

Player A is Erick Aybar, Player B is Ben Zobrist – Otherwise known as, “Maybe Ben Zobrist isn’t related to Jimmy Christ.”

Player A – From July 1st, 126 ABs, 9/3/18/.206
Player B – From July 1st, 104 ABs, 22/6/15/.298

Player A is Victor Martinez, Player B is Mike Napoli – Otherwise known as, “Grey will never stop touting cheap catchers compared to expensive ones.”

Player A – From July 1st, 123 ABs, 14/5/19/.243
Player B – From July 1st, 127 ABs, 15/6/28/.314/2

Player A is Adrian Gonzalez, Player B is Pablo Sandoval – Otherwise known as, “Let’s think of Sandoval with the big boys.  Besides just the, uh, big boys.”

Player A – From July 1st, 137 ABs, 22/9/23/.343/3
Player B – From July 1st, 131 ABs, 23/3/13/.275/4

Player A is Michael Young, Player B is David Wright — Otherwise known as, “Zoinks!”