Fantasy Baseball Advice

Wouldn’t say this is crunch time as much as this is “Your nuts are in a cracker and the season’s closing in and squeezing tight so you better just throw any pitchers that are available because you need stats — stat!” time.  The line for last week was 80 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 50 Ks and 3 wins.  Not a great line, but if you throw out Lannan and Francis because you had better sense than me and didn’t start them.  The line comes down to 3.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%.  These streamers are in no particular order.  Also, in the final month of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 16th

Philip Humber – It’s really slim pickins on Friday for under 50% owned starters.  I’m not a huge fan of Humber but compared to some of the other schmohawks, well, here he is.

Jeff Locke – On Friday, Locke goes against the Smoke Monster in chess and the Dodgers’ weak offense.

Saturday, September 17th

Jeanmar Gomez – Gets the Twins, has only given up 3 earned in the last 17 and a third innings and when you say his first name it causes phlegm.

Rick Porcello – Don’t trust Porcello at all but he goes to a -co stadium and faces the A’s.

Chris Volstad – In his last three starts, 17 1/3 IP and 3.12 ERA.  Here he takes on the Nats and Strasburg’s three to five innings of work.

Sunday, September 18th

Joe Saunders – In 22 innings vs. the Padres, he has a 2.05 ERA and a .190 BAA.  Kill me now for recommending Saunders.

Matt Harrison – 1.84 ERA vs. the Mariners, though I’m not sure there’s any pitchers with a 2+ ERA vs. the M’s.  Maybe Liriano or Danks.  Schmohawks.

Brad Lincoln – Gave a pretty yawnstipating start last time out, but here I am going back to the well like Baby Jessica.

Monday, September 19th

David Huff – I never said the names on this list were gonna be pretty.  There’s only a few teams I could see starting Huff against:  the Mariners and the Mariners minor league affiliates.

Mike Minor – He just dismantled the Marlins (with a four walk performance in 5 2/3 innings — technicalities!).

Tuesday, September 20th

Jason Vargas – Choices aren’t Grade A when I’m taking on a Mariners starter, but it was between him and To Be Announced.  And I don’t like To Be Announced’s matchup.

Edwin Jackson – Highest compliment I can give any guys on this list is when I think one should be owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Jackson’s one of those guys.

Derek Holland – Last three starts (when this was written), 1.77 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 1/3 IP.

Wednesday, September 21st

Dana Eveland – He/she gets the Giants in Chavez Ravine.  Giants have a .236 average vs. lefties, which is only slightly worse than what they’re batting against righties.  As for the lack of other options today, they were kinda Plouffey.  I almost put down Brett Cecil, but he’s all over the map and not in the good traveling circus kind of way.

Angel Pagan – Twelve years ago, the New York Mets made Pagan, an 18-year-old, a fourth round draft pick – however it was not a smooth transition from draft to Shea for the young Puerto Rican.

Things started out well for Pagan. He dominated rookie ball in 2000 and A- and A ball in 2001. Things got a little tougher as he got to A+ ball in 2003. He went just .249/.307/.313 with 35 steals in 50 attempts. He flashed very little power and poor plate discipline (104 Ks to just 46 walks).

Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from promoting him to AA the following year. His 2004 season would be terrific (.287/.346/.413) and validated the decision. At 23, if he could show good success in AAA in 2005, he’d be a shoo-in for a call-up. Unfortunately, he never really got going, finishing with a .271/.333/.395 line with 27 steals in 45 attempts.

The, on January 25, 2006, the Chicago Cubs purchased Pagan’s contract. He spent the majority of 2006 in the majors, although he suffered a lot of injuries and missed over two months. In 187 plate appearances, he went .247/.306/.394. Still, on July 2, his 25th birthday, Pagan hit two dingers – they just happened to be the first two of his career. Pagan was, quickly, a Major League record holder, being the first player to hit his first two career homers on his birthday.

However that would be the highlight of his tenure with the Cubs. The following season, 2007, Pagan had similar struggles as 2006: he struck out a decent bit, didn’t walk at all and got hurt again (suffering from colitis and losing a lot of weight). The Cubs traded him back to the Mets for two guys you’ve likely never heard of: Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers.

Abracadabra, Pagan was the starting left fielder for the Mets in 2008 thanks to Moises Alou’s general brittleness. He ceded the position back to Alou in early May and injured his shoulder making a spectacular grab against the Dodgers on May 7. He had season ending surgery on July 29. Still, all was not lost, as he finished with a .275/.346/.374 line, brought his Ks down a tad and his walks up a good bit. He also started to hit line drives (23%) and his swinging strike rate dipped below 5% after being 7.1% the previous two years. Still, it was just 105 plate appearances, so nothing was certain for 2009.

Let’s just say, May 7 is a pretty unlucky day for Pagan. A year to the day after his season-ending catch, Pagan was arrested for traffic violations as there were several warrants out for his arrest for failure to pay other traffic fines. His legal problems didn’t hold him back though, rather his old arch nemesis did: his health. He went on the DL on June 1 with a groin strain. But he made his way back and, on August 1, hit a grand slam – his first home run since 2007 and his first for the team that drafted him. While Pagan had a nice BABIP (.349), his .306/.350/.487 line was not completely unexpected. He continued to have a line drive rate hovering around 20% and he swung and missed just 4.2% of the time – he was putting the ball in play more and hitting it well.

In that context, his break-out 2010 made sense. In fact, you could have argued that his .290/.340/.425 line was underwhelming given that the power wasn’t there at levels you’d expect.

Given his career arc, 2011 should have been a repeat of 2010 with an uptick in most numbers. That hasn’t happened. As has been the case throughout his career, Pagan has battled injuries. However, his BABIP (.288) is sitting a lot lower than it should compared to his career with the Mets (never lower than .330) given he has a massive 24% line drive rate. His K-rate is just 10.9% and his swinging strike percentage is quite low as well – he is putting the ball in play and he is hitting the ball hard. He’s been tremendously unlucky. If healthy, Pagan is a huge asset down the stretch, capable of batting well with some light pop and a good amount of steals. I also think he’ll be a bargain for 2012.

Matt Wieters – The Orioles have sucked for a long time…not Nationals-level sucking (which resulted in back-to-back drafts yielding Strasburg and Harper), but certainly bad enough to land some sort of blue chip future superstar. When Wieters was selected fifth overall in 2007, he was supposed to be that blue chip.

Wieters was a man amongst toddlers during his entire minor league career. He went .345/.448/.576 in A+ ball and .365/.460/.625 in AA in 2008. In 2009, he posted a .305/.387/.504 line in AAA before earning the call.

In his second career game, he had his first major league hit, a triple against Justin Verlander. He hit his first major league home run off the hated Mets. Wieters finished 2009 with a .288/.340/.412 line in the majors. There were definite growing pains, though. He swung and missed a lot (10.5% of the time) and posted a 22.3% K-rate compared to a sub-optimal 7.3% walk rate. In addition, his power (just nine dingers and a .124 ISO) came nowhere near his minor league numbers.

The last red flag was his .356 BABIP (which was in line with what he did in the minors). However, his line drive rate was acceptable (18.5%), but not nearly good enough to sustain a BABIP anywhere close to .350.

Sure enough, 2010 brought massive struggles. Wieters finished with a .249/.319/.377 line – worse at each slash than 2009. Still, his ISO was up a smidge, his walk rate neared 10% and he swung and missed less. However, he didn’t make real good contact (15.4% line drive rate) and hit way too many ground balls for a catcher. Not surprisingly, his BABIP was just .287.

There wasn’t a ton of optimism heading into 2011, but there were a lot of ‘ifs.’ If Wieters got his line drives up, if he continued to cut down on the Ks, if he started to drive the ball, things could, maybe, break the right way. Well, they have, sort of. Wieters sits at .263/.324/.434. His K-rate has continued its decline and his HR/FB rate has finally reach double digits (his ISO is now .171). He is also hitting the ball better (17.8% line drive rate) without much change in his BABIP from 2010.

Wieters will make a fine catcher down the stretch. I believe in the steps he has taken and think his BABIP should shoot above .300 next year, which could result in a nice average from a catcher. As he continues to mature, he’ll drive the ball more and more. Look out 2012, Wieters is going to be a star.*

*In interest of full disclosure, I’m an Orioles fan. However, I’m a huge pessimist when it comes to my teams (Orioles and Eagles, predominantly). I’d rather bet on the under and have someone exceed my expectations than sour on a player (*ahem* Manny Alexander, Jeffrey Hammonds) after I placed high expectations on them. So, I think I’m as objective as possible on Wieters. His numbers tell a story, a story I want to invest in as a fantasy owner.

James McDonald – The Dodgers took McDonald as a draft and follow pick in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. This allowed him to go to Golden West College before starting in the majors. McDonald, a Long Beach Poly student (a school that boasts Tony Gwynn, Milton Bradley, Chase Utley, Tyus Edney, DeSean Jackson, Winston Justice, Willie McGinest, Billie Jean King, Cameron Diaz, Snoop Dogg, Carl Weathers!, and others as graduates), must have been thrilled that his hometown club took him.

In 2003, McDonald started off well for the Gulf Coast Dodgers, however he missed all of 2004 and most of 2005 with an injury. He came back to start 22 games and make eight relief appearances for the Ogden Raptors in A ball in 2006. He finished with a 3.98 ERA and 1.29 WHIP but just a 2.25 K:BB rate.

He took a nice stride in 2007 across A+ and AA ball, finishing with a 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a mighty fine 4.54 K:BB rate. He was named the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year.

The following year, across AA and AAA, McDonald looked to have pitched quite well with a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, his K:BB rate (2.66) was nothing special for a 23-year-old. Still, he made his major league debut with the big league club, working one scoreless inning of relief against (oddly enough) the Pittsburgh Pirates.

McDonald’s career had pointed at 2009 as the day he would take the mound as a starter for his hometown club. Unfortunately, things didn’t go well. In his first start, he didn’t escape the third inning. He only got three more starts, making it to the fifth in just one, before being banished to the bullpen. With a 6.75 ERA on May 14, McDonald got his second banishment: to AAA. Quite simply, McDonald had real problems with his control, walking 4.75+ batters per 9 – that aint gonna cut it.

McDonald started 2010 in the minors, putting up decent Ks but a bit too many walks. The Dodgers were done with him. Along with Andrew Lambo, the Dodgers exiled McDonald to Pittsburgh for the services of a fringe-above-average reliever in Octavio Dotel. Looking back, though, wasn’t that a favor to McDonald? The Dodgers are an absolute mess and the Pirates have some young players that look good. If I’m an alien, I’d rather be a Pirates fan than Dodgers fan right now…maybe (it’d be hard to give up rooting for Kemp/Kershaw).
Anyway, McDonald blossomed in Pittsburgh. He started 11 games for the club in 2010 and posted a 3.52 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.84xFIP, 8.58 K/9 rate and 3.38 BB/9 rate – huge improvements.

While he has been a little lucky in 2011 (78.7% strand rate) and his Ks have taken a bit of a step back (7.5 per 9), he is getting good swinging strike rates (8.2%), is giving up less line drives (18.7%) and has greatly improved his ground ball rate (42.1%). I’d happily trade a handful of Ks for many more balls hit on the ground. McDonald seems to be settling himself in as a solid MLB pitcher for the next few years. He is by no means sexy, but could carve himself a very similar career to Ted Lilly. He’s a nice player to own for the rest of the season and for the next few years.

This isn’t meant to replace Smokey’s two-start pitchers for fantasy that comes every weekend. This is meant to supplement that, like something A-Rod’s cousin would give you. This isn’t two start pitchers, this is barely owned guys that could give you one start. A pick up and a drop. They’re all owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons-of-bees goes out the window this time of year. If you’re battling for pitching points or in the H2H playoffs, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April. Suddenly, Jeff Francis looks ownable and John Lannan doesn’t look like John Lannan, but looks like a guy whose home ERA is under 3. So I’ve assembled starters from Friday, the new Hump Day, until next Wednesday, the old Hump Day, that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is. I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Lannan). Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 9th

Bud Norris – Has a great K-rate and goes against the Nationals, a team that is 2nd in the majors in strikeouts.  Could see him getting tagged for a homer or two, but should give you 6 innings and at least 6 Ks.  There’s a chance here for a 7 IP, 10 Ks game.  Fancy me some of that!

Jeff Francis – Game is in Safeco.  Yes, that’s all you need to know.  A recurring theme will emerge.  Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”  See?

Saturday, September 10th

Henderson Alvarez – My very-risky-may-not-be-risky-at-all start of the week.  Why do I sound like a less racist Jimmy The Greek?  Alvarez won’t strikeout many guys but, as long as balls don’t find holes — that’s what she said! — he should be okay.

Chris Capuano – Has been better in Metco than on the road and he gets the below-average Cubs offense at home.

John Lannan – I aforementioned this shizz if you read the lead — or lede if you’re an old-timer who likes the feel of a newspaper, Lannan’s home ERA is under 3 and he gets the Astros.

Edwin Jackson – This start worries me and I debated leaving it off, so there’s that.

Wade Miley – He gets the Padres.  This will be another recurring theme –  Recurring Theme, “Padres!” — but not for this week.  Recurring Theme, “My bad.”

Sunday, September 11th

Javier Vazquez – He falls under the 50% owned threshold, but he really shouldn’t.  So this one’s kind of a gimme.  Now watch him drop an upper decker.

Monday, September 12th

Brad Lincoln – Four score and four straight quality starts ago, he was a middle reliever.  Now he gets a team (the Cards) that he threw six shutout innings against.

Mike Leake – In 23 innings, he has a 2.74 ERA vs. the Cubs, including his last game where he was within an out of a one-hitter.

R.A. Dickey – He rematches against Wang for the Toilet Bowl II.

Phil Hughes – Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”

Aaron Harang – He goes against the Giants and rookie Surkamp, who I almost listed here too.  Conflict of interests yadda³.

Tuesday, September 13th

Guillermo Moscoso – Honestly, only because I had to pick someone.  It’s Tuesday the 13th… Spooky!

Wednesday, September 14th

Brandon McCarthy – I expect he’s gonna get rattled in his Friday start vs. the Rangers because, ya know, they’re good.  Here he goes against the Torii Hunter Peter Bourjos Vernon Wells Howie Kendrick Mark Trumbo-led Angels.

Chris Narveson – There’s a chance this start may not happen, but if it does against Colorado… Keep on pushing my love to the borderline…fantasy baseball starters.

Brett Cecil – Cecil grew up right where I live and pitched for my high school’s big rival: Dematha (a school that produced David Aldridge, Keith Bogans, Mike Brey, James Brown, Adrian Dantley, Joe Forte, Paul Rabil, Brian Westbrook and others). Cecil has the chance to be the best baseball player to ever come out of the school.

In 2007, the Blue Jays made Cecil the 38th overall selection in the draft. He pitched a bit in A- ball for the Jays in 2007, showing some promising signs: 10.15 K/9 rate, just 1.99 BB/9 and a 1.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts.

In 2008, he split time between A+, AA and AAA, pitching quite well at each stop. The majority of damage came at AA. In 18 starts, he posted a 10.08 K/9 rate, 2.67 BB/9 rate, 2.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

It surprised no one that he would start 2009 in AAA. However, his success, or lack thereof, was surprising. His Ks went way down (5.88), his walks went up (3.49) and his ratios suffered: 5.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, the Jays, one of the smartest organizations in the American League East (and therefore baseball), realized that his strand rate (52.6%) was ridiculous, so they brought him up to the show for the majority of 2009.

While his season would look ugly (5.30 ERA, 5.37 FIP and 1.65 WHIP), he got his K-rate up to 6.65 and his walk rate was at 3.66. Meanwhile his BABIP (.338) and HR/FB rate (14.8%) seemed to suggest he was just darn unlucky.

The Jays and some fantasy owners expected a good step forward in 2010 and we got it. While his Ks went down a tad (6.10), his swinging strike percentage went up to 9.2%, his line drive rate went down and his ground balls went up. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.293) and HR/FB rate (8.7%) got closer to normal. At the end of the year, Cecil had a 4.22 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.33 WHIP spread across 28 starts.

This is where we are reminded that baseball is rarely a linear game. If you expected Cecil to take another step forward in 2011, you were dead wrong. He gave up five or six runs in three of his first five starts and had a 6.86 ERA at the end of April.

Cecil was dispatched back to AAA. While his Ks returned (7.21) and his walks went down (2.75), they weren’t exactly reflected in his ratios (5.26 ERA and 1.44).

Still, either the Jays believed in the underlying numbers or really needed an arm as Cecil returned to the majors on June 30, and promptly gave up six runs in 6.1 IPs against the lowly Pirates. A small matter of solace is that he managed to strike out six Buccos. At that point, his ERA sat at 7.24.

Well, remember when I said baseball wasn’t a linear game? Since June 30, in 10 starts and 70.1 IPs, Cecil has a 3.33 ERA and 46 Ks to only 20 walks. I love me some Brett Cecil. He is just 25 and already has 360+ MLB innings. I think he’ll finish the year strong and post 25-30 more Ks. You might want to avoid some of his tougher matchups, but, otherwise, I’m fine using him.

Felipe Paulino – In 2001, as an 18-year-old, Paulino was signed by the Houston Astros. He’d feel his way through Rookie Ball from 2003 – 2004 until 2005, when he pitched 55 innings spread across A- and A ball. He would look damn good too: 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Clearly, he was ready for A+…or, not as his Ks dwindled (6.48) and his walks skyrocketed (4.20). There was no silver lining in those numbers either, as his FIP (4.66) was actually worse than his terribly mediocre ERA (4.35).

Still, he got a promotion in 2007 to AA ball and got his swagger back: 8.84 K/9, 3.94 BB/9 and reasonable ratios (3.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). He’d start three games that year in the majors and appear in two others. His appearances would be utterly forgetful if they weren’t so tragically bad (7.11 ERA with a 20.8% HR/FB rate).

The roller coaster of a career would get bumpier in 2008, as he missed the majority of the season, tallying just 0.2 IPs in AAA. Undeterred, he was back in AAA in 2009. While his cosmetics looked good (3.12 ERA), he was walking everyone and their mom (5.97 BB/9), yet the Astros had no problem promoting him to the majors. While his Ks (8.57) looked promising and he appeared to get his walks (3.41) sort of in order, he still gave up a ton of long balls and line drives. At this point, it looked like Paulino was going to straddle the line between average reliever and below average starter.

His 2010 season did nothing to clear this up. The Ks remained, but he walked a ton more guys. However he was also the benefit of good and bad luck. While he had a totally serviceable line drive rate his, BABIP was .331 and, even with a low HR/FB rate, his strand rate was near criminal (58.5%). His unpalatable ERA (5.11) and FIP (3.44) weren’t in the same zip code. Of course, FIP takes into account his 3.6% HR/FB rate (which isn’t real sustainable), so when you look at xFIP (which normalizes the HR/FB rate), you get 4.36. Still that’s pretty darn good for a guy who can strike out a bunch of players.

Unfortunately, the Astros, in their infinite wisdom, didn’t see much in Paulino, shipping him to Colorado for Clint Barmes.  (I assume in an effort to motivate Jeff Keppinger or the other dozen or so replacement level middle infielders they had.)

The Rockies looked poise to give Paulino the Jorge de la Rosa treatment – however he couldn’t find his way into the rotation and had his contract sold to the Royals (a potential reverse de la Rosa move?).

Paulino has started 15 games for the Royals and has posted a 7.85 K/9 rate, 3.27 BB/9 rate, 3.83 ERA and 3.42 FIP). He is getting less solid contact with the Royals, yet his BABIP remains high. He is still getting a great swinging strike percentage which can lead to fantastic K games. In fact, over his last 10 starts and 61.1 IPs, he a 4.26 ERA and 55 Ks – not too shabby.

He’ll never likely be a sub-4.00 pitcher and there will be some ugly games when he walks the entire team. However, his ERA should hover in the mid-4.00s and provide a bevy of Ks. In deep leagues, I’m all over that kind of production.

Edwin Encarnacion – Encarnacion, or E5, was a ninth round pick of the Texas Rangers in 2000. However, before he could get his feet wet, he was shipped, along with Ruben Mateo, to Cincinnati for a reliever named Rob Bell.

In 2002, at A ball, Encarnacion looked awesome: 17 HRs, and a .282/.338/.458 line – sure the plate discipline (108 Ks to just 40 walks) would hurt his average development, but that’s fine with that kind of power.

Throughout the minors, Encarnacion just hit for power and hit for a decent average. From 2003 – 2007, he never batted below .272 at any level and currently has a .278/.345/.425 at AA and .329/.396/.565 line at AAA.

He earned near fulltime duties with the Reds in 2006 and rewarded them for their foresight with a .276/.359/.473 and 15 homers in 117 games. He wasn’t swinging and missing a ton (8.7%), was posting a fine line drive rate (21.1%) and his strike out rate (16.7%) and walk rate (8.8%) weren’t detrimental. Add all those up and he was going to be a major league regular with fine power for years to come.

Or not…as he struggled immensely out of the gate in 2007. At the end of April, he was batting .221/.294/.260 and was sitting at .250/.327/.357 at the end of May. At that point he had just three dingers and he began to lose playing time to Ryan Freel to free up space in the outfield for a former Rays prospect named Josh Hamilton. E5 was sent down to the minors on May 9, but would return two weeks later. After he returned, Encarnacion went .307/.370/.476 with 15 HRs in 108 games.

With Hamilton traded, 2008 was clearly going to be the year for Encarnacion to solidify himself as a solid MLB regular. While he hit 25 bombs, he batted just .251/.340/.466 and committed an ungodly 23 errors. Encarnacion was striking out a tad more but was also walking a bit more. For some reason, though, he wasn’t hitting the ball with much authority. His FB rate spiked, perhaps as he was trying to jack everything that came to him. This hurt his BABIP and destroyed his ability to get on base.

After going .209/.333/.374 in 43 games for the Reds in 2009, they shipped him, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. While E5 hit a few more homers for the Jays, he’d perform worse, stumbling to a .240/.306/.442 line.

His 2010 was little different – Encarnacion fielded poorly, hit some homers, but couldn’t get on base.

The following year seemed to be no different – at the end of June, 2011, he sat at .250/.283/.404. Encarnacion seemed finished. However, since that time he has gone .304/.388/.527 with nine homers in 50 games. He has struck out just 35 times and walked 23 times. While this is a small sample, it’s a huge step in the right direction if it can continue.

Encarnacion can hit .265-.280 the rest of the way with 5+ HRs. He’s good cheap power in a good deep lineup. Previously, I’ve wanted nothing to do with Encarnacion – I’m about to change my tune.

Luke Hochevar – After high school, Hochevar was selected in the 39th round of the 2002 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers. To hell with that, he said, I’m going to Tennessee to follow Arrested Development and Tee Martin.

It turned out to be a darn good choice for Hochevar. In 2005, he set a school record for strikeouts, was named SEC player of the year and took home the prestigious Roger Clemens Award (given to the top D-I pitcher). For reasons unknown (wink), the award was discontinued in 2009 after only six years in existence. In addition to Hochevar, the other award winners are Jered Weaver, Andrew Miller, David Price and Aaron Crow.

Following his acclaimed college career, the Dodgers drafted Hochevar again, though this time in the first round (although 40th overall). As with so many other amateur players who are “advised” by Scott Boras, Hochevar’s negotiation with the Dodgers was long and contentious. At one point, Hochevar actually dumped Boras for another agent and accepted a $2.98 million signing bonus. The next day, however, Hochevar reunited with Boras and promptly reneged on the deal. Suffice it to say, nobody should have been surprised when the signing deadline passed and Hochevar was not a Dodger.

Hochevar re-entered the draft in 2006 and was selected first overall by Kansas City. The Royals showed him the money; Hochevar signed a four-year major league deal worth $5.3 million guaranteed, which included a $3.5 million signing bonus and additional incentives worth $1.7 million.

Hochevar began his professional career in 2007 (after being rated the #32 best prospect), pitching 152 innings between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he didn’t fare all that well at either level. In AA, he had a 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, but an incredibly impressive 3.62 K:BB rate. At AAA, he had a 5.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and less impressive 2.10 K:BB rate. Still, he was only 23.

In 2008, Hochevar, now the #63 best prospect, showed some impressive chops in AAA in the Pacific Coast League, a tough hitter’s league. He impressed the brass so much that he was promoted to the woeful major league squad. He didn’t get much of a welcome basket though, as he teammates gave him the lowest run support of any major league pitcher (2.8 runs per game). Still, it wasn’t entirely his teammate’s fault that he had a 6-12 record. He had a miserable 5.02 K/9 rate and an even more miserable 3.28 BB/9 rate, i.e. a 1.52 K:BB rate – that won’t cut it. His bullpen didn’t help much (62.3% strand rate) either.

Undeterred, the Royals continued to run him out there every fifth day in 2009. While his ERA was worse, the underlying numbers suggested Hochevar actually took a small step forward. He had a 6.67 K/9 rate, a 2.90 BB/9 rate and a 2.30 K:BB rate – something that could work on the major league level. He gave up a few more HRs than would seem logical, had a somewhat inflated BABIP (.321 compared to .300 for his career) and an even worse strand rate (59.3%) than in 2008.

Prior to 2010, the claim could be made that that Hochevar was improving, albeit incrementally. Well, if you look at his 2010 round numbers – 4.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP – it sure looks like the same ole crapola. However, he maintained a K:BB rate above 2.0 and his FIP was 3.93 (xFIP was 4.09) – certainly subtly positive signs.

Unfortunately, the incremental progress has stalled almost completely in 2011. His K/9 rate (5.12) is back in the sewer and his HRs are up. He has his first south-of-.300 BABIP, yet is wasting it completely.

I really thought, at this point, Hochevar would be an average MLB starter, someone in the Jeremy Guthrie mold who could do some nice things. While this belief has not come to fruition, it is still possible for him to take the necessary step forward.

Over his last 32.2 IPs and five starts, Hochevar has 26 Ks, a 3.58 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has walked just 10 batters. There is some momentum with Hochevar that I find appealing, especially in deep leagues where you have to gain some Ks from unlikely sources. (This was written before his latest start against the Boston Red Sox, which wasn’t great: 6 IPs, five ER, eight hits, three walks and four Ks. Still, going back to July 3, he has pitched 47.2 IPs with a 4.72 ERA and 37 Ks to 19 walks and he has the 30th most Ks over the last 30 days. )

He’s still barely a match-ups plays. However, if he keeps this up, he could be a nice bargain now and in 2012.  Plus, you get to say Hochevar, which I find fun. It reminds me of a fine cheese like manchego.

Mike Carp – If you don’t know the story of Mike Carp (for some reason I feel like I’m beginning the narration of Big Fish), well, sit a-spell. Also, how could you not know the ins and outs of the New York Mets 2004 ninth round draft pick? In 2005, and just 19 years old, Carp hit 19 bombs over 89 games in A ball. The following season, at the A+ level, he posted a .287/.379/.450 line and won the Sterling Award as the Mets organization player of the year.

Following this early success, Carp seemed destined to eventually win a job with the parent club. Unfortunately, he broke his finger in 2007 and stumbled to a .251/.337/.387 line in AA.

Repeating AA in 2008, and now 22, Carp returned to form: .299/.403/.471 – yep, a .400+ OBP and 17 HRs. He was on his way…to Seattle.

On December 11, 2008, Carp, as part of a three team deal, was sent to Seattle along with a few other guys including Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman for what amounted to J.J. Putz (the ghost of Jeremy Reed’s prospect was also involved).

Carp spent most of his time in AAA for the Mariners and looked good, going .271/.372/.446 with 15 HRs in 110 games. I know I had an eye on him when he made his major league debut, especially after he went .315/.415/.463 in his first 65 MLB plate appearances.

However, it wasn’t enough to get Carp full time duties in 2010 and he was sent back to AAA. Carp scuffled the entire season (though he showed some fantastic power), going .257/.328/.516 and notching just seven hits in 41 plate appearances in the Show. Of course, Carp, after posting BABIPs well over .300 the last previous seasons in minors, finished with just a .259 average on balls in play.

The bloom was definitely not off the rose yet. Carp came out blazing in 2011, hitting .347/.414/.653 in AAA with 21 HRs in just 66 games. He hasn’t stopped in the majors either: .325/.382/.517 with six homers in 40 games.

While I’ve been overwhelmingly positive about Carp, I must mention the gargantuan elephant in the room: his .410 BABIP. He does have an unprecedented 29.7% line drive rate, but he is swinging and missing a ton: 14.9% and striking out a fair bit: 24.2%. It’s only a matter of time before major league pitchers make the adjustment and give him the Delmon Young treatment (i.e., nothing good to hit). Still, the kid is capable of taking a pitch and should be able to handle that bump. Until that bump comes, however, you need to be starting him in most every league. He is that locked in. I haven’t been this excited since Kevin Bass went .244/.303/.336 for the Orioles in 1995, and then promptly retired.

Brandon McCarthy – About seven years ago, Brandon McCarthy was on his way to being better known than Andrew McCarthy. As a 20-year-old, splitting time between A, A+ and AAA, McCarthy, a former 17th round draft pick of the White Sox in 2002, posted a 3.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He struck out 202 batters in just 172 innings and walked only 30. He had a 6.73 K:BB rate.

Before 2005, McCarthy was rated the #49 prospect and looked good at AAA: 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 rate and 4.06 K:BB rate. He was brought up to the major league club, appeared in 12 games and started 10. If you looked at the cosmetics, his 4.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP certainly foretold greatness. However, he had a .249 BABIP, an 81.2% strand rate and only posted a 6.45 K/9 rate.

The White Sox didn’t want to stress the young hurler, so they kept him in the bullpen for most of 2006. His strikeout rates benefitted, but he walked more guys and didn’t resemble anything near a top 50 prospect – finishing with a 4.68 ERA, 5.30 FIP and 4.60 xFIP.

In the offseason, he was shipped to Texas for, predominantly, John Danks and Nick Masset – that one didn’t work out so well for Rangers.

McCarthy posted dismal K numbers during his first year with Texas and increased his walks, some of which might have been due to injury. After just 22 starts, the Rangers shut McCarthy down due to a stress fracture in his right shoulderblade.

McCarthy developed inflammation in his right elbow during Spring Training the next year and missed a sizeable chunk of the season. He pitched in the majors sparingly for Texas in 2009, but his time with the major league squad was done after that season. Overall, he pitched just 221 IPs with a 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.46 K:BB ratio for the big league club. He was worth barely one win above a replacement player during his tenure.

He did pitch 56 innings in the minors in 2010 for the Rangers. He looked good: 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 4.00 K:BB ratio. However he was granted free agency on November 5, 2010.

The Oakland Athletics made a play for McCarthy and signed him on December 14, 2010.

While battling chronic injuries, McCarthy has been a boon to a beleaguered Athletics rotation. He has taken the ball 18 times now, spread across 118 innings – the most he has pitched in the majors in any season. He has his same old pedestrian K-rate (5.87) but he has really cut down on his walks (just 1.37), giving himself a fantastic 4.28 K:BB rate. Apparently pitching in a more forgiving ballpark has given McCarthy the confidence to just throw strikes.

While his strand rate is a little generous (63.7%), it is mostly due to a stellar bullpen and a lack of homeruns – two things that seem to be constants for the A’s. His ERA (3.74), FIP (2.82) and xFIP (3.39) all paint a rosy picture for the one-time stud.

McCarthy, just recently 28, is a nice pitcher who can help control your ratios down the stretch. He’s a prefect compliment to someone like Bud Norris or Ryan Dempster, who bring the Ks, but also the high ratios. He is only 19% owned, so go out and get him for the stretch run.