I went over 13 pitchers in May that should be better according to their FIP. Some of those pitchers on the list who weren’t doing great that have since turned it around are Nolasco, Floyd, Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Beckett, Javier Vazquez and Ubaldo. 8 of 13. Two other pitchers were Randy Johnson and Gil Meche. So they were injured and haven’t hurt any teams in a while. So 8 of 11 healthy pitchers. One of the missing pitchers is Scott Olsen. Next to his name, I wrote, “Blech.” So I think it was clear I wasn’t telling you to go grab him. So that’s 8 of 10. Another pitcher was Pavano. Next to his name I said, “Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.” Obviously not an endorsement. That’s 8 of 9. The last pitcher was Andy Sonnanstine. I’m never been a fan of his and he’s been in the minors since June, so he didn’t hurt you really either. So that’s 8 for 8 in Grey Math. Eat it, snitches! Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs.
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It’s been over a month since we took a look at some pitchers who are pitching over their heads. Last time, we saw Cueto, Porcello, Millwood, Saunders, Lilly, Cahill and Gallardo were due for a correction. Since then, they’ve had Liquid Paper dumped all over their stats. Also, on that list were Matt Cain, Zach Duke and John Lannan. 6 of 10 pitchers pitched poorly since the last time I told you they would, Gallardo’s been marginally worse and Zach Duke’s been marginally the same. That’s pretty bad odds against the pitchers on this list. A few are still on here as they’re still pitching over their head. For a refresher course on what the eff I’m even talking about with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), take Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs.
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This was covered a bit in the Chone Figgins blurb in Friday’s Buy/Sell, but it’s worth giving it its own post. Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot. The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held on too tightly to your players. In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else, but losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power.
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So it’s not really the 2nd half mark in the fantasy baseball season, but it’s the All-Star Break so what else are we going to talk about? The newest Real World? Why would you put them in Cancun and then say they can’t drink in public? Go put restrictions on the castmates of 16 and Pregnant and leave the Real Worlders alone. As with all of the other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt. If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the outfielder for the 2nd baseman. Also, things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Albert Pujols number one on the top 50 list for the second half of 2009 and he could get injured tomorrow. Then he wouldn’t be number one. See how that works. This list is a roadmap for where I think guys are valued. It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my ‘stache. This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season.
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Where do the starters exit the stadium when the game’s over because I’m a groupie for strikeout heavy pitchers, i.e., Grey’s high on a high K/9, i.e., ergo, henceforth, vis-a-vis, I’d own these starters. Why the hearts on the notebook, Grey?
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Sometimes you just can’t trade a guy in your fantasy baseball league. For whatever reason, the rest of the teams don’t believe in your guy. Whether it’s someone who has been doing well who people aren’t sure if they’re for real (Ben Zobrist) or someone who has been struggling (Liriano), no one in your league will trade for them. You’ve tried to sell lower than even their value warrants, but no bites.
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There’s a few people who are going to understand what FIP is. The people who scored a 2400 on the SATs. Or 1600 if you’re old school, literally. The people who use a Bunsen Burner to light their pipe. The people who know what is in a Twinkie. You know, real smart people. Me? I just know that Twinkies are delicious. Luckily, there’s people out there that figure out these highfalutin numbers like FIP and give ‘em to us plain and simple. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs.
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Fangraphs, a great site to get lost in for a few hours, has this stat called O-Swing %. I don’t know if they invented it, but they probably did because they’re smarter than us. The O-Swing % is not the amount of times you can fail to satisfy a woman prior to her swinging her arm and knocking you to the floor. Repeat, it is not that. Though, if someone can come up with that stat, let me know. No, the O-Swing % is, “The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.” Yes, they may as well call this the AlfonsO-Swing %. Hackers score high, methodical, patient hitters score low. Doesn’t mean high is bad and low is good. Some guys hack and have always hacked. B.
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First, some history: Last season, the Baron exhibited his usual over-enthusiasm for whippet-thin outfielders who promise both power and speed, and also Matt Holliday. Coming out of a draft in which I took Holliday first (coming off 36 HRs in ’07), a still-2B-eligible BJ Upton second (24 HRs in ’07) and Alex Rios third (24 HRs in ’07), I knew I lacked a big-bopper in the Prince/Ryan Howard/Dunn mold, but figured I could count on at least 80 HRs from this trio—with a ceiling closer to a 100.
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This is more of a general fantasy baseball strategy post (and aimed for Roto more than H2H). This is sort of a continuation of this morning’s roundup. Well… At least the thought process for why I’m writing it is in continuation. Do you start or sit pitchers? There isn’t an easy, broad answer to start every guy, so I understand the trepidation behind starting certain guys. You don’t want Ubaldo sitting on your team’s face right after he ate Mexican food. But you also don’t want to start a guy for all his bad outings and sit him for the great ones. In a lot of cases, Perry Mason, this comes down to over thinking. Listen, even your fearless leader sometimes over thinks his starts and misses a good one. And some guys really are for just matchups. You’re not starting “Fire Chin” Gaudin every time out.
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