Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September. If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August. Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners. It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll. So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is. I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla). Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:
Tuesday, September 15th
Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. Please, blog, may I have some more?
In roto, you can can’t gain ground in many categories in September, unless you’re already close. The two categories you can conceivably gain ground in is in steals and saves — SAGNOF! If you are up in power, or at least far enough that you can’t be caught by the team right behind you, then I’d stack up on guys that could get you some steals. As for saves, you probably don’t have as many options on waivers. But there’s a some guys that might get a save or two in the final few weeks, and, well, every save counts. Anyway, here’s some guys that can provide steals and saves this week in fantasy baseball:
Drew Stubbs – He has 5 homers and 3 steals in the majors in two weeks. He had 3 homers and 46 steals in 5 months in Triple-A. Maybe he sleeps with a 1996 Brady Anderson card under his pillow. Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m not going to lie. It’s hard to make up ground in the standings this late in the season. Your fantasy baseball trading deadline has probably passed, so you’re left with playing hot hands off of waivers. You need to make sure you don’t hold until guys just for their names. In June or even July, I wouldn’t tell you to lose, say, Jermaine Dye for Matt LaPorta or Andy Marte, but it’s a whole new ballgame in September. There’s only so much your top players can even do in one month. For instance, Carlos Lee hasn’t had a month of more than 5 homers all year. If you really don’t need homers and you’re dying for steals, playing Carlos Lee over, say, Andrew McCutchen isn’t going to get you anywhere. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Verducci Effect as explained by Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.” So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger). In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise. If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped. Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:
Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers. Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle! Triangle! Triangle! Cow bell! More cow bell! One last ding. In today’s installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, we’re going to look at some players since July 1st and try to figure out if maybe the numbers tell a different story than their names tell. At this point in the season, it’s very important to abandon names and just try and plug in the best stats. Anyway, here’s the latest in Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers:
Player A – From July 1st, 142 ABs, 27/1/9/.366/20
Player B – From July 1st, 118 ABs, 17/2/11/.263/1
Player C – From July 1st, 140 ABs, 27/2/19/.319/5
Player A is Nyjer Morgan, Player B is Brad Hawpe, Player C is Gerardo Parra – Otherwise known as, “Why is Hawpe the meat in a schmohawk sandwich? Wait, is Hawpe a schmohawk? Please, blog, may I have some more?
I went over 13 pitchers in May that should be better according to their FIP. Some of those pitchers on the list who weren’t doing great that have since turned it around are Nolasco, Floyd, Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Beckett, Javier Vazquez and Ubaldo. 8 of 13. Two other pitchers were Randy Johnson and Gil Meche. So they were injured and haven’t hurt any teams in a while. So 8 of 11 healthy pitchers. One of the missing pitchers is Scott Olsen. Next to his name, I wrote, “Blech.” So I think it was clear I wasn’t telling you to go grab him. So that’s 8 of 10. Another pitcher was Pavano. Next to his name I said, “Hmm… Maybe I should’ve ignored some of these schmohawks.” Obviously not an endorsement. That’s 8 of 9. The last pitcher was Andy Sonnanstine. I’m never been a fan of his and he’s been in the minors since June, so he didn’t hurt you really either. So that’s 8 for 8 in Grey Math. Eat it, snitches! Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. Please, blog, may I have some more?
It’s been over a month since we took a look at some pitchers who are pitching over their heads. Last time, we saw Cueto, Porcello, Millwood, Saunders, Lilly, Cahill and Gallardo were due for a correction. Since then, they’ve had Liquid Paper dumped all over their stats. Also, on that list were Matt Cain, Zach Duke and John Lannan. 6 of 10 pitchers pitched poorly since the last time I told you they would, Gallardo’s been marginally worse and Zach Duke’s been marginally the same. That’s pretty bad odds against the pitchers on this list. A few are still on here as they’re still pitching over their head. For a refresher course on what the eff I’m even talking about with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), take Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. Please, blog, may I have some more?
This was covered a bit in the Chone Figgins blurb in Friday’s Buy/Sell, but it’s worth giving it its own post. Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot. The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held on too tightly to your players. In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else, but losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power. Please, blog, may I have some more?
So it’s not really the 2nd half mark in the fantasy baseball season, but it’s the All-Star Break so what else are we going to talk about? The newest Real World? Why would you put them in Cancun and then say they can’t drink in public? Go put restrictions on the castmates of 16 and Pregnant and leave the Real Worlders alone. As with all of the other 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt. If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the outfielder for the 2nd baseman. Also, things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Albert Pujols number one on the top 50 list for the second half of 2009 and he could get injured tomorrow. Then he wouldn’t be number one. See how that works. This list is a roadmap for where I think guys are valued. It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my ‘stache. This list is NOT (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take the first half and combine it with the 2nd half of their season. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Where do the starters exit the stadium when the game’s over because I’m a groupie for strikeout heavy pitchers, i.e., Grey’s high on a high K/9, i.e., ergo, henceforth, vis-a-vis, I’d own these starters. Why the hearts on the notebook, Grey? Please, blog, may I have some more?