1. Top hitters at weak positions rule in keepers.

Utley, Mauer, Hanley, et al. are top keepers.  I’m not a fan of drafting Mauer very early on in redrafts.  But in a keeper league, I’m assuming you have him for a lot cheaper than he’ll go in redrafts, especially when considering he went late in 2009 drafts because of back issues.

2. Value is a trump card.

In the above Utley/Marmol example, I knew Marmol would be very cheap on your team because he was nothing but a middle man in 2008.  Though he had the stuff to be the closer in 2009 and Kevin Gregg blocking him — ha!  Are you keeping Marmol over Miguel Cabrera?  Not unless Nurse Ratched just gave you a lobotomy.  Would I have told you last year to keep a 20th round Marmol over, say, a 8th round Vernon Wells?  Yes, I would’ve.  Another example of value as trump card, Derrek Lee in the 6th round or Kendry Morales in the 20th round?  Kendry Morales wins.

3. Try to figure out who your leaguemates are keeping.

Or the inverse of that, who will be available on draft day.  This is sometimes easier said than done, but you should be able to gauge more or less the guys that will be kept.  For instance, if there’s going to be no top 3rd basemen in the draft, it makes Kevin Youkilis in the 3rd round a lot more appealing.

4. When in doubt, keep a hitter.

I’m not opposed to keeping a pitcher or two, but if I could have my druthers — those are MY druthers! — I’d keep hitters.  Same that holds true for redraft leagues holds true for keepers.  Pitchers are unpredictable from year to year.

5. Take a gamble on upside.

Some players have top 50 upside.  Think The Dread Pirate.  Am I gambling on upside over a proven commodity?  No, I’m not.  But if you keep, say, 5 keepers, take 4 proven guys and gamble on one guy to have some upside.

6. Don’t be cute; go for the win this year vs. the future win.

This point couches point number five.  Don’t overload on future talent.  I’m sure Strasburg will be dynamite.  He may even be dy-no-mite.  That doesn’t mean you’re playing 2011 before 2010 even starts, future boy.

Starting the game are Scott Baker and Rick Porcello, but, at the first sign of trouble, they’ll be lifted.  This makes every starter, except for Sunday’s starters for either team, available.  Manship, Liriano and Robertson et al (that’s not the Israeli airline) could all see action.  Don’t forget possible unlikely heroes if you need any hitting stats.  That’s right, this may be the only time you see me fully endorse picking up Gerald Laird, Matt Tolbert and Jose Morales.  Even Nick Punto.  Well… No, even him.  Most importantly, if your opponent needs any stats at all, block them from getting them.  So if this means owning Matt Guerrier for no reason other than you’re afraid your opponent might get a vulture win and beat you, then own Guerrier, in the non-biblical sense, of course.

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?

Tuesday, September 15th

Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. the Mariners in Seattle.

Robinson Tejada – Has 69 Ks in 53 1/3 innings.  Goes vs. the Tigers, who he just beat.  It’s risky because I don’t trust the 2nd time being the charm.  Teams figure a guy out usually, but he could give you some cheap Ks.

Wade LeBlanc – Has two solid back-to-back starts and he faces a K-razy offense (Diamondbacks) in Petco.

Wednesday, September 16th

Doug Davis – Has a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings vs. the Padres and hasn’t given up one earned run in Petco in two years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Has four straight solid starts and a serial killer name.

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t had an embarrassing start since July 8th and he gets the Pirates.

Thursday, September 17th

Justin Masterson – vs. the A’s and I wouldn’t start him here unless you’re in absolute dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Friday, September 18th

Brian Duensing – You’d think I really liked him with the amount I’m talking about him, but he’s worth a flier for a start or two.

Vicente Padilla – He actually just shut out the Giants, which scares me more than it instills confidence, but it’s still a decent match-up.

Saturday, September 19th

Brett Tomko – Shoot me now for suggesting Tomko.

Jason Hammel – Has an ERA around 3 away from Coors and he gets the swing happy Diamondbacks.  This is still a risky start because Chase is a hitters park.

Sunday, September 20th

Paul Maholm – It’s not as great to face the Padres away from Petco, but it’s not that bad either.

Carl Pavano – Gets the Tigers on Sunday and has absolutely owned them this year.  In over 30 innings, he has a 1.48 ERA and 4 wins.  And, just think, you can tell your lady friend you had the cojones to start Pavano.

STEALS

Drew Stubbs – He has 5 homers and 3 steals in the majors in two weeks.  He had 3 homers and 46 steals in 5 months in Triple-A.  Maybe he sleeps with a 1996 Brady Anderson card under his pillow.

Michael Brantley -With Sizemore out with elbow surgery he probably could’ve had in May (but then the Indians would’ve lost 95 games instead of 90), Brantley’s seeing time.  He had 46 steals in Triple-A in 51 chances.

Everth Cabrera – EverCab’s linear notes tell us he has 21 steals in 80 games so far.

Angel Pagan – Pagan stole 52 bases one year in the low minors.  So he has the speed (his hitting chops are the issue).

Chris Getz – Four steals in the last six games.  He ain’t glamorous, but Angel Pagan is?

Brett Gardner – Could have some deep Al-Only value for speed.

Eugenio Velez – Velez is one of the few guys that when he’s standing in the batter’s box, you can read everything on the backstop.  This doode needs a serious convo with Davey Lopes.  “Velez, you’re 120 lbs.  How about you run once in a while?  Thank you.”

SAVES

Matt Lindstrom/Kiko Calero – Leo Nunez has looked blechtastic in his last few games.  Lindstrom hasn’t looked much better, but the Marlins need to win the rest of their games so they may try Lindstrom or even Calero.

Phil Hughes – With the Yankees coasting towards the playoffs, Hughes may see some late inning chances as the Yankees try to Dorian Gray Mariano.

Brett Myers – The Phillies may be waiting for Lidge to blow a seven run lead by giving up eight consecutive homers.  I guess what I’m saying is that Myers could be better than Lidge right now, but tell that to the Phils who have trotted Lidge out for the last five months.

Brandon Lyon – Because Fernando Rodney’s been taking anger management classes with Brett Myers.

Chris Perez – I think at some point in the last week or two the Indians will give Perez an opportunity to impress in the ninth.

Kevin Jepsen – File this away with Hughes’s potential saves.  As the Angels lock up the division, they could rest Fuentes.

J.P. Wheelerfourger – The Rays bullpen is in tatters… Shattered.  Key syllable is shat.  Shoot, Price could figure into this closer picture if Howell continues to botch the job. (I love the word botch and I really don’t use it enough.  Maybe that’ll be my 2010 resolution.)

Scott Downs/Jason Frasor – It’s been so long since the Jays got a save, I’m honestly not even sure who their closer is.

Angel Guzman – Really no reason why Marmol loses the job… Right now.  Member he’s been prone to blow-ups in the past.  I kinda just want Guzman to take over so I can hear what song he uses for his entrance music.  Shaggy?  Aerosmith? Real Life?  Whatever it is, it’s sure to be lame.

This goes even more so for Head-to-Head leagues.  If you’re heading into the playoffs, or are in the last week of the regular season, it’s really time to put allegiances aside.  H2H leagues are won in the last few weeks, so pitching match-ups and most recent starts need to be looked at for everyone.  I wouldn’t ever tell you to play, say, Ryan Rowland-Smith over James Shields, but in an H2H league in September, it’s the kind of switch off that you may need to look at.  Trust me, it’s a lot better to win with Ryan Rowland-Smith than it is to lose because your opponent grabbed him.  As the season progresses, risk needs to be managed, not feared.  In September, throw your business management cliches out the window and go for the win.

Lastly, there’s also the fantasy baseball strategy of screwing your opponent before they can screw you.  If you know your opponent needs to start three pitchers to overtake you and there’s ten potential candidates for them to pick up, grab the top three options before they can.  I.e., force their hand.  Push them to pick up some schmohawks like Mitchell Boggs, Craig Stammen and Brian Moehler.  As every hitting coach, who’s worth his money will tell you, make Craig Stammen beat you.

Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos.

Brett Cecil – At about even with his workload from last year.  Ricciardi will probably put the brakes on Cecil in September, if he can’t trade him for Pujols before then.

Josh Johnson – He’s pitched a lot of innings before, but not last year and he’s already complained of a weak shoulder this year.  I don’t think he gets shutdown, but it might be an acorn to store over the winter in that giant cave of useless facts that sits on your shoulders.

Joba Chamberlain – Already 20 innings over from last year and the Yankees are already skipping him.  “Joba Rules” currently are start every 9th day and give up four runs.

Clay Buchholz – Where there’s a Yankee mention, there needs to be a Red Sox mention.  That’s in the Sports Blog Handbook.

Rick Porcello – He’s already being skipped and will probably get shutdown quick-fast in September.

Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.  The only thing that’s keeping his innings in check is his inability to get out of the 6th inning.

David Price – Nice to see he’ll be unusable next year too so I have a reason to avoid him in drafts.

Yovani Gallardo – His jump from 2008 to 2009 will be insane, but in 2007 he pitched almost 190 innings.  So it shouldn’t be until late September when he’s technically in the red.

Brett Anderson/Dallas Braden/Trevor Cahill – Already over their workload from the previous year.  Then again, Beane will probably pitch them through September then trade them for three number one picks.

Tommy Hanson – Has about 30 innings left before he’s in the red.  If you own him, you’re already in the black, your leaguemates are blue and my bathroom walls are eggshell.

Player A – From July 1st, 142 ABs, 27/1/9/.366/20
Player B – From July 1st, 118 ABs, 17/2/11/.263/1
Player C – From July 1st, 140 ABs, 27/2/19/.319/5

Player A is Nyjer Morgan, Player B is Brad Hawpe, Player C is Gerardo Parra – Otherwise known as, “Why is Hawpe the meat in a schmohawk sandwich?  Wait, is Hawpe a schmohawk? Or is he the meat?  The schmohawk or the meat?!  Someone tell me!”

Player A – From July 1st, 125 ABs, 26/3/22/.368/4
Player B – From July 1st, 122 ABs, 21/3/14/.286/6

Player A is Erick Aybar, Player B is Ben Zobrist – Otherwise known as, “Maybe Ben Zobrist isn’t related to Jimmy Christ.”

Player A – From July 1st, 126 ABs, 9/3/18/.206
Player B – From July 1st, 104 ABs, 22/6/15/.298

Player A is Victor Martinez, Player B is Mike Napoli – Otherwise known as, “Grey will never stop touting cheap catchers compared to expensive ones.”

Player A – From July 1st, 123 ABs, 14/5/19/.243
Player B – From July 1st, 127 ABs, 15/6/28/.314/2

Player A is Adrian Gonzalez, Player B is Pablo Sandoval – Otherwise known as, “Let’s think of Sandoval with the big boys.  Besides just the, uh, big boys.”

Player A – From July 1st, 137 ABs, 22/9/23/.343/3
Player B – From July 1st, 131 ABs, 23/3/13/.275/4

Player A is Michael Young, Player B is David Wright — Otherwise known as, “Zoinks!”

Ricky Nolasco – 1.66 difference.  Yup, he’s going to continue to be better.

Carl Pavano – 1.12.  Still ignore.

Paul Maholm – 1.11.  Don’t you love when a plan doesn’t come together.  Maholm should be better, but that doesn’t mean I’d rush out to own him.  He’s nothing but match-up material.

Jorge de la Rosa – .90.  I do own him in a 12 team league and I’d start him every time out in away games and play match-ups at home.  BTW, he had a 2.50 ERA in July.  That included 5 home games and only one away game.

Cole Hamels – .87. Having some shizzy luck when it comes to men LOB and BABIP.  The bigger problem is I think the Phils abused his arm so badly in 2008 that he/they are paying for it now.

Jon Lester – .75.  Gotta love when a pitcher’s below a 4 ERA and still supposed to be better.

Francisco Liriano – .75.  Hmph. Well, what do we do with that?  The Twins seem like they’re at the point where they don’t want to bother with Liriano anymore.  I’m definitely not bothering with Liriano.  If I want an ulcer, I’ll snoop through my girlfriend’s photo albums of old boyfriends.

Kevin Correia – .75.  Hey, I think this is our first HodgePadre to ever appear on a FIP post.  Johnny Olson tell ‘em what he’s won…  A brand new washer and dryer!