Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.

Dan Uggla – This is the most miraculous push in the history of the world. After Uggla’s horrendous start to the season, he rebounded to bat .234 but with 35 HRs.

Jimmy Rollins – Consensus had Rollins as a top 5 option. Rollins is 6th at the position. However a bigger pre-draft split was where he should fall overall. I thought Rollins could push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but rest on the low end of each. He had 14 HRs and 28 SBs. We also saw his average stay below .275. If you drafted Rollins in the top 50, you are probably somewhat disappointed.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a tricky player to write about all year. I liked him, but the hype was a little ridiculous. While I would rather have Nick Swisher, I thought Rasmus was capable of hitting .260 with 20-25 HRs and 15 SBs. Petty squabbles in St. Louis and poor health have Rasmus at 14 HRs, five steals and a .235 average. I was clearly wrong on my projection.

Jason Bartlett – I thought Bartlett could get back to batting .275 (didn’t happen: .251), but I also thought he was a good bet to reach 20 – 30 SBs (he has 23). It’s a wash, but with how bad the SS position has been, he’s been a useful figure in 2011.

Nick Swisher – God it is disgusting how dirty good Brian Cashman is – he absolutely stole Swisher from Kenny Williams. Still, the entire fantasy community also seems to sleep on Swish, as he was the 33^rd consensus OF. Well, he is the 31^st OF, so they were closer in terms of ranking.

Gio Gonzalez – I had Gonzalez as the 42^nd best SP, consensus put him around 49, and he will end up about 46^th overall. So maybe I overvalued him…or maybe not.  I predicted a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 200 Ks. Right now, he has bested my ERA prediction (3.41 ERA) and come very close to meeting my WHIP prediction (1.37 WHIP). He has 177 Ks, so he’ll likely fall a tad short of 200.

Will Venable – While, technically, I had Venable ranked higher than most people, I still warned against the hype I saw building. Specifically, I said that his ceiling of a .320 OBP and the amount of balls he swings at out of the zone wouldn’t get him anywhere near the 30 steals he approached last season. Well, he currently sits at 26 – whoops. I did add in the caveat that we could see some weird things with the Padres this year, i.e., that in the absence of any real offense, their players would be running silly and that could artificially buoy Venable’s SB number. So, I was sort of correct in my Venable assessment.

Mark Reynolds – It’s so weird to be wrong about a known commodity. I had Reynolds buried on the draft board (22^nd 3b), whereas consensus had him a bit higher. I believed he was a .240 hitter with 35 HRs and 10 SBs. He has actually batted worse (.222) and has 36 HRs and just 6 SBs, but has come in as the 6^th best 3b for the year. What a dreadful position.

Edwin Jackson – Partly because he was born in Germany, partly because I believed in the Chicago White Sox pitching coaches, I thought Jackson would have a nice year. I expected an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range with 170 Ks. He has fallen short of the Ks (he has just 146) but his ERA has been a nice surprise (3.85). Sure the WHIP is miserable, but he wasn’t that bad of a pitcher.

Chris Iannetta – I had Iannetta as a sleeper for the millionth year in a row, expecting a .250 hitter with 15 HRs (with upside as well). Well, Iannetta has batted just .236 this year but does have 13 HRs. He hasn’t helped at all down the stretch though and has really sputtered out. It would be nice if he batted anything other than eighth, but you have to play the cards you’re dealt.

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

Friday, September 23rd

Carl Pavano – Against the Indians this year, he’s been a Pava…yes.  See what I did there?  Spectacular!

Rick Porcello – The deal right now, in these last few days of September, is go big or go home or don’t go big and don’t go home.  In other words, you have to decide if you need to start a whole mess of guys to try and win, or if you can coast like the Phils.  Don’t fully trust Porcello but he’s better than some other schmohawks.

R.A. Dickey – He hasn’t been bad in two months and he gets the playoff-bound Phils.  I do tend to shy away from knuckleballers with Dickey being one.  (Must’ve been so hard for him growing up with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  I imagine it’s hard for anyone under the age of 45 to be a knuckleballer.  Knuckleballers don’t exactly pull the girls.  Or maybe they don’t pull girls so that’s why they become knuckleballers.  Deep thoughts with Grey Albright.)

Brett Myers – I nearly put Drew Pomenranz here too (his opponent).  One million ways to stream, choose one.

Aaron Harang – A few pitchers I liked for today were left off because they were just above 50% owned.  Basically, every pitcher on this Friday is a good spot start.

Saturday, September 24th

Cory Luebke – As good as Friday was for spot starters, Saturday’s that bad.  For full disclosure, I nearly suggested Jerome Williams, but then I thought about Jerome Williams and I decided nah.  Not a capital nah or a no way, just a small quiet nah.

Sunday, September 25th

Mike Minor – Not great matchups today either.  I mean, there’s some good pitchers going but they’re owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Minor’s at least good for some Ks.  BTW, this start could change if the Braves have already clinched.  Then Detwiler’s start vs them wouldn’t look as bad.

Edwin Jackson – Gave me a pretty lousy start last time he appeared in the borderline starter post (5 IP, 5 ER), but I’m a glutton for punishment.  Not gluten, gross.

Monday, September 26th

Randall Delgado – Will be a bit dependent on where the Braves are in the playoff race, but whether they’re in it or out of it, they’re going against the Phils who have packed it up.

Randy Wells – Only because he goes against the Padres in Petco.  On a related note, what are the Cubs doing in San Diego at the end of the season?  I can only imagine how well this would’ve went down if the Cubs were in the playoff chase… Okay, as hard as that is to imagine.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s only listed here because he was under 50% owned when I wrote this up.  I imagine by Monday he won’t be under 50% anymore.  He might not even be by today.

Jason Vargas – Him and McCarthy go against each other.  I don’t stream two pitchers in the same game, but chances are McCarthy will be gone and Vargas could throw a decent game, as well.

Tuesday, September 27th

Jeanmar Gomez – Sounds like a Swedish Latino, doesn’t he?  Swexicano?  Not the greatest of matchups with Gomez going against the Tigers if it wasn’t for the fact the Tigers will be resting for the playoffs.

Wednesday, September 28th

R.A. Dickey – Look at me, double dipping on Dickey this week.  That’s what she said!  Though I’m not sure why she would say that.  It’s not like it would reflect well on her.

Eric Surkamp – Unlike previous years, the Rockies folded up their blankets and checked out in August.  If Surkamp’s gone, I’d look at his opponent, Pomeranz, simply because the Giants aren’t that good.

Brett Myers – The last day of the season is actually a great day to stream pitchers.  Hitters take the last day off, managers bring in Triple-A hitters just to give them a chance to play, people check out, basically.

Brad Peacock – Thankfully, he’s not facing Dickey on the last day of the season because then my head would’ve exploded.  The one on my shoulders.

Given the first round pedigree and moderate success, Baseball America rated him the #83 prospect before the 2006 season. Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start and suffered a leg injury, resulting in just 234 plate appearances. He would never appear on another Baseball America top 100 list.

Still, in the following season, he finally got a full season of minor league ball, appearing in 138 games across A+ and AA ball. The results weren’t good for the 23-year-old: .253/.348/.368 – but hey, the slugging percentage was higher than his OBP! At least Pennington showed an advanced approach at the plate, posting a walk rate north of 12% and not striking out a whole lot.

There was still potential in the shortstop given that approach and it appeared he made use of his tools in 2008. He started off in AA, posting a .260/.379/.314 line. The batting average and power were absent – however the near 16% walk rate showed that he had mastered that level of pitching. Pennington was promoted to AAA and would get 294 plate appearances and do some damage: .297/.426/.386. Across both levels he had 31 steals in 37 attempts. He earned a quick cup of coffee for his efforts and batted .242/.339/.293 in the majors. He held his own with an 11.1% walk rate and 15.4% K rate.

Still, he started 2009 in AAA and didn’t quite perform as well. His BABIP dropped from .338 in 2008 to .300 and his slash line followed (.264/.345/.367). Still he was walking and not striking out a lot, so the Athletics brought him to the majors.

He batted an impressive .279/.342/.418 in 229 plate appearances in 2009 – although the line was buoyed by a .342 BABIP that wasn’t supported by great contact (just an 18.5% line drive rate). He was also striking out a lot, not walking nearly as much as you would like and he wasn’t successful stealing. It was hard to see where Pennington’s value would come from if (when) that BABIP normalized.

In his first full year in the majors, 2010, Pennington’s BABIP normalized to .296 (even though he hit more line drives: 21.5%) and his slash line suffered. He hit just two more homers than he did in 2009 in nearly 350 more at bats. Still, he stole 29 bases and was caught just five times. The steals were nice, but their value was useless given his inability to get on base/hit for a good average. Still he wasn’t hitting a ton of ground balls (just 35.6%) and the line drive rate should have produced a slightly better BABIP.

The question remained whether Pennington could hit the ball well enough to be fantasy relevant. Well, he has a 24.9% line drive rate this year and an improved and sustainable BABIP at .316. He is hitting a not awful .265/.321/.367. Unfortunately, he is just 13/22 in stolen base attempts and has only eight homers.

However, he’s been damn good since July 15. It’s a small sample (56 games and 232 plate appearances), but he owns a .309/.371/.454 line. Of course he has a .376 BABIP during that time and the competition usually gets weaker as the season goes on.

This year has been a nice step forward for Pennington and he is entering his prime. You cannot bank on him to continue his second half trend going into next season. He hasn’t mastered the strike zone like you would expect and he still hits too many fly balls for his home ballpark. It would not surprise me if he finds his way inside the top 10 at his position next year and does have upside to the 5-7 range. So he’ll be a good gamble late in drafts – but is far too risky to count on in anything other than AL-only leagues. That said, I’m happily riding him down the stretch.

Nolan Reimold – A former standout at Bowling Green State University, Reimold was the 61st overall selection in the 2005 MLB Draft. He played pretty well in the minors in his initial stint (73 games): .285/.385/.551 with 15 homers across A- and A+.

He drew the attention of Baseball America and was rated the #99 prospect in baseball before the 2006 season. However his grasp on the top 100 would slip through his fingers after a somewhat poor season at A+. He struck out a good bit (21.2%), but still walked enough and hit for enough power to remain intriguing.

He played sparingly, but well in 2007 at AA. In just 50 games, he hit .306/.365/.565. The power was there, but he struck out a ton (23.2%) and had an inflated BABIP (.359). Still, he was the #91 prospect going into the 2008 season.

He spent the entire 2008 season in AA and looked good: .284/367/.501 and really cut down his Ks (14%). He earned his promotion to AAA in 2009. He wouldn’t be there long though – after 31 games and a .394/.485/.743 line, he made his way to the big league club. On May 20, against the hated New York Yankees, Reimold hit his first career homer – it happened to be off Mariano Rivera – pretty sweet. Then, seven days later, he hit a walk-off dinger in the 11th against the Blue Jays. Reimold finished the year with 15 HRs and a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances.

Clearly, 2010 would be a 20-HR campaign with the RBIs to go with them. Unfortunately, Reimold battled injuries and inconsistency. He played just 39 games for the big league club and struggled to a .207/.282/.328 line. He struck out more, even though he swung and missed less. While his line drive rate dipped to 12% (from 14.4% the year before), his BABIP really dipped – all the way to .236. In addition, his HR/FB rate dropped to 8.3%. Either Reimold suddenly got terrible, or he was the victim of serious bad juju.

While he spent time in the minors in 2011, he has mostly returned to form in the majors. Clearly his .235/.324/.429 leave a lot to be desired but his ISO, HR/FB% and line drive rate are all in line with 2009. His average on balls in play is still a tad low, so there is room for optimism that he can improve the rest of the way and in 2012.

He is probably not viable in 10-team leagues next year. However, he should have enough mojo for every other kind of league – he could legitimately hit 20-30 HRs.

Friday, September 16th

Philip Humber – It’s really slim pickins on Friday for under 50% owned starters.  I’m not a huge fan of Humber but compared to some of the other schmohawks, well, here he is.

Jeff Locke – On Friday, Locke goes against the Smoke Monster in chess and the Dodgers’ weak offense.

Saturday, September 17th

Jeanmar Gomez – Gets the Twins, has only given up 3 earned in the last 17 and a third innings and when you say his first name it causes phlegm.

Rick Porcello – Don’t trust Porcello at all but he goes to a -co stadium and faces the A’s.

Chris Volstad – In his last three starts, 17 1/3 IP and 3.12 ERA.  Here he takes on the Nats and Strasburg’s three to five innings of work.

Sunday, September 18th

Joe Saunders – In 22 innings vs. the Padres, he has a 2.05 ERA and a .190 BAA.  Kill me now for recommending Saunders.

Matt Harrison – 1.84 ERA vs. the Mariners, though I’m not sure there’s any pitchers with a 2+ ERA vs. the M’s.  Maybe Liriano or Danks.  Schmohawks.

Brad Lincoln – Gave a pretty yawnstipating start last time out, but here I am going back to the well like Baby Jessica.

Monday, September 19th

David Huff – I never said the names on this list were gonna be pretty.  There’s only a few teams I could see starting Huff against:  the Mariners and the Mariners minor league affiliates.

Mike Minor – He just dismantled the Marlins (with a four walk performance in 5 2/3 innings — technicalities!).

Tuesday, September 20th

Jason Vargas – Choices aren’t Grade A when I’m taking on a Mariners starter, but it was between him and To Be Announced.  And I don’t like To Be Announced’s matchup.

Edwin Jackson – Highest compliment I can give any guys on this list is when I think one should be owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Jackson’s one of those guys.

Derek Holland – Last three starts (when this was written), 1.77 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 1/3 IP.

Wednesday, September 21st

Dana Eveland – He/she gets the Giants in Chavez Ravine.  Giants have a .236 average vs. lefties, which is only slightly worse than what they’re batting against righties.  As for the lack of other options today, they were kinda Plouffey.  I almost put down Brett Cecil, but he’s all over the map and not in the good traveling circus kind of way.

Things started out well for Pagan. He dominated rookie ball in 2000 and A- and A ball in 2001. Things got a little tougher as he got to A+ ball in 2003. He went just .249/.307/.313 with 35 steals in 50 attempts. He flashed very little power and poor plate discipline (104 Ks to just 46 walks).

Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from promoting him to AA the following year. His 2004 season would be terrific (.287/.346/.413) and validated the decision. At 23, if he could show good success in AAA in 2005, he’d be a shoo-in for a call-up. Unfortunately, he never really got going, finishing with a .271/.333/.395 line with 27 steals in 45 attempts.

The, on January 25, 2006, the Chicago Cubs purchased Pagan’s contract. He spent the majority of 2006 in the majors, although he suffered a lot of injuries and missed over two months. In 187 plate appearances, he went .247/.306/.394. Still, on July 2, his 25th birthday, Pagan hit two dingers – they just happened to be the first two of his career. Pagan was, quickly, a Major League record holder, being the first player to hit his first two career homers on his birthday.

However that would be the highlight of his tenure with the Cubs. The following season, 2007, Pagan had similar struggles as 2006: he struck out a decent bit, didn’t walk at all and got hurt again (suffering from colitis and losing a lot of weight). The Cubs traded him back to the Mets for two guys you’ve likely never heard of: Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers.

Abracadabra, Pagan was the starting left fielder for the Mets in 2008 thanks to Moises Alou’s general brittleness. He ceded the position back to Alou in early May and injured his shoulder making a spectacular grab against the Dodgers on May 7. He had season ending surgery on July 29. Still, all was not lost, as he finished with a .275/.346/.374 line, brought his Ks down a tad and his walks up a good bit. He also started to hit line drives (23%) and his swinging strike rate dipped below 5% after being 7.1% the previous two years. Still, it was just 105 plate appearances, so nothing was certain for 2009.

Let’s just say, May 7 is a pretty unlucky day for Pagan. A year to the day after his season-ending catch, Pagan was arrested for traffic violations as there were several warrants out for his arrest for failure to pay other traffic fines. His legal problems didn’t hold him back though, rather his old arch nemesis did: his health. He went on the DL on June 1 with a groin strain. But he made his way back and, on August 1, hit a grand slam – his first home run since 2007 and his first for the team that drafted him. While Pagan had a nice BABIP (.349), his .306/.350/.487 line was not completely unexpected. He continued to have a line drive rate hovering around 20% and he swung and missed just 4.2% of the time – he was putting the ball in play more and hitting it well.

In that context, his break-out 2010 made sense. In fact, you could have argued that his .290/.340/.425 line was underwhelming given that the power wasn’t there at levels you’d expect.

Given his career arc, 2011 should have been a repeat of 2010 with an uptick in most numbers. That hasn’t happened. As has been the case throughout his career, Pagan has battled injuries. However, his BABIP (.288) is sitting a lot lower than it should compared to his career with the Mets (never lower than .330) given he has a massive 24% line drive rate. His K-rate is just 10.9% and his swinging strike percentage is quite low as well – he is putting the ball in play and he is hitting the ball hard. He’s been tremendously unlucky. If healthy, Pagan is a huge asset down the stretch, capable of batting well with some light pop and a good amount of steals. I also think he’ll be a bargain for 2012.

Matt Wieters – The Orioles have sucked for a long time…not Nationals-level sucking (which resulted in back-to-back drafts yielding Strasburg and Harper), but certainly bad enough to land some sort of blue chip future superstar. When Wieters was selected fifth overall in 2007, he was supposed to be that blue chip.

Wieters was a man amongst toddlers during his entire minor league career. He went .345/.448/.576 in A+ ball and .365/.460/.625 in AA in 2008. In 2009, he posted a .305/.387/.504 line in AAA before earning the call.

In his second career game, he had his first major league hit, a triple against Justin Verlander. He hit his first major league home run off the hated Mets. Wieters finished 2009 with a .288/.340/.412 line in the majors. There were definite growing pains, though. He swung and missed a lot (10.5% of the time) and posted a 22.3% K-rate compared to a sub-optimal 7.3% walk rate. In addition, his power (just nine dingers and a .124 ISO) came nowhere near his minor league numbers.

The last red flag was his .356 BABIP (which was in line with what he did in the minors). However, his line drive rate was acceptable (18.5%), but not nearly good enough to sustain a BABIP anywhere close to .350.

Sure enough, 2010 brought massive struggles. Wieters finished with a .249/.319/.377 line – worse at each slash than 2009. Still, his ISO was up a smidge, his walk rate neared 10% and he swung and missed less. However, he didn’t make real good contact (15.4% line drive rate) and hit way too many ground balls for a catcher. Not surprisingly, his BABIP was just .287.

There wasn’t a ton of optimism heading into 2011, but there were a lot of ‘ifs.’ If Wieters got his line drives up, if he continued to cut down on the Ks, if he started to drive the ball, things could, maybe, break the right way. Well, they have, sort of. Wieters sits at .263/.324/.434. His K-rate has continued its decline and his HR/FB rate has finally reach double digits (his ISO is now .171). He is also hitting the ball better (17.8% line drive rate) without much change in his BABIP from 2010.

Wieters will make a fine catcher down the stretch. I believe in the steps he has taken and think his BABIP should shoot above .300 next year, which could result in a nice average from a catcher. As he continues to mature, he’ll drive the ball more and more. Look out 2012, Wieters is going to be a star.*

*In interest of full disclosure, I’m an Orioles fan. However, I’m a huge pessimist when it comes to my teams (Orioles and Eagles, predominantly). I’d rather bet on the under and have someone exceed my expectations than sour on a player (*ahem* Manny Alexander, Jeffrey Hammonds) after I placed high expectations on them. So, I think I’m as objective as possible on Wieters. His numbers tell a story, a story I want to invest in as a fantasy owner.

James McDonald – The Dodgers took McDonald as a draft and follow pick in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. This allowed him to go to Golden West College before starting in the majors. McDonald, a Long Beach Poly student (a school that boasts Tony Gwynn, Milton Bradley, Chase Utley, Tyus Edney, DeSean Jackson, Winston Justice, Willie McGinest, Billie Jean King, Cameron Diaz, Snoop Dogg, Carl Weathers!, and others as graduates), must have been thrilled that his hometown club took him.

In 2003, McDonald started off well for the Gulf Coast Dodgers, however he missed all of 2004 and most of 2005 with an injury. He came back to start 22 games and make eight relief appearances for the Ogden Raptors in A ball in 2006. He finished with a 3.98 ERA and 1.29 WHIP but just a 2.25 K:BB rate.

He took a nice stride in 2007 across A+ and AA ball, finishing with a 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a mighty fine 4.54 K:BB rate. He was named the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year.

The following year, across AA and AAA, McDonald looked to have pitched quite well with a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, his K:BB rate (2.66) was nothing special for a 23-year-old. Still, he made his major league debut with the big league club, working one scoreless inning of relief against (oddly enough) the Pittsburgh Pirates.

McDonald’s career had pointed at 2009 as the day he would take the mound as a starter for his hometown club. Unfortunately, things didn’t go well. In his first start, he didn’t escape the third inning. He only got three more starts, making it to the fifth in just one, before being banished to the bullpen. With a 6.75 ERA on May 14, McDonald got his second banishment: to AAA. Quite simply, McDonald had real problems with his control, walking 4.75+ batters per 9 – that aint gonna cut it.

McDonald started 2010 in the minors, putting up decent Ks but a bit too many walks. The Dodgers were done with him. Along with Andrew Lambo, the Dodgers exiled McDonald to Pittsburgh for the services of a fringe-above-average reliever in Octavio Dotel. Looking back, though, wasn’t that a favor to McDonald? The Dodgers are an absolute mess and the Pirates have some young players that look good. If I’m an alien, I’d rather be a Pirates fan than Dodgers fan right now…maybe (it’d be hard to give up rooting for Kemp/Kershaw).
Anyway, McDonald blossomed in Pittsburgh. He started 11 games for the club in 2010 and posted a 3.52 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.84xFIP, 8.58 K/9 rate and 3.38 BB/9 rate – huge improvements.

While he has been a little lucky in 2011 (78.7% strand rate) and his Ks have taken a bit of a step back (7.5 per 9), he is getting good swinging strike rates (8.2%), is giving up less line drives (18.7%) and has greatly improved his ground ball rate (42.1%). I’d happily trade a handful of Ks for many more balls hit on the ground. McDonald seems to be settling himself in as a solid MLB pitcher for the next few years. He is by no means sexy, but could carve himself a very similar career to Ted Lilly. He’s a nice player to own for the rest of the season and for the next few years.

Friday, September 9th

Bud Norris – Has a great K-rate and goes against the Nationals, a team that is 2nd in the majors in strikeouts.  Could see him getting tagged for a homer or two, but should give you 6 innings and at least 6 Ks.  There’s a chance here for a 7 IP, 10 Ks game.  Fancy me some of that!

Jeff Francis – Game is in Safeco.  Yes, that’s all you need to know.  A recurring theme will emerge.  Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”  See?

Saturday, September 10th

Henderson Alvarez – My very-risky-may-not-be-risky-at-all start of the week.  Why do I sound like a less racist Jimmy The Greek?  Alvarez won’t strikeout many guys but, as long as balls don’t find holes — that’s what she said! — he should be okay.

Chris Capuano – Has been better in Metco than on the road and he gets the below-average Cubs offense at home.

John Lannan – I aforementioned this shizz if you read the lead — or lede if you’re an old-timer who likes the feel of a newspaper, Lannan’s home ERA is under 3 and he gets the Astros.

Edwin Jackson – This start worries me and I debated leaving it off, so there’s that.

Wade Miley – He gets the Padres.  This will be another recurring theme –  Recurring Theme, “Padres!” — but not for this week.  Recurring Theme, “My bad.”

Sunday, September 11th

Javier Vazquez – He falls under the 50% owned threshold, but he really shouldn’t.  So this one’s kind of a gimme.  Now watch him drop an upper decker.

Monday, September 12th

Brad Lincoln – Four score and four straight quality starts ago, he was a middle reliever.  Now he gets a team (the Cards) that he threw six shutout innings against.

Mike Leake – In 23 innings, he has a 2.74 ERA vs. the Cubs, including his last game where he was within an out of a one-hitter.

R.A. Dickey – He rematches against Wang for the Toilet Bowl II.

Phil Hughes – Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”

Aaron Harang – He goes against the Giants and rookie Surkamp, who I almost listed here too.  Conflict of interests yadda³.

Tuesday, September 13th

Guillermo Moscoso – Honestly, only because I had to pick someone.  It’s Tuesday the 13th… Spooky!

Wednesday, September 14th

Brandon McCarthy – I expect he’s gonna get rattled in his Friday start vs. the Rangers because, ya know, they’re good.  Here he goes against the Torii Hunter Peter Bourjos Vernon Wells Howie Kendrick Mark Trumbo-led Angels.

Chris Narveson – There’s a chance this start may not happen, but if it does against Colorado… Keep on pushing my love to the borderline…fantasy baseball starters.

In 2007, the Blue Jays made Cecil the 38th overall selection in the draft. He pitched a bit in A- ball for the Jays in 2007, showing some promising signs: 10.15 K/9 rate, just 1.99 BB/9 and a 1.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts.

In 2008, he split time between A+, AA and AAA, pitching quite well at each stop. The majority of damage came at AA. In 18 starts, he posted a 10.08 K/9 rate, 2.67 BB/9 rate, 2.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

It surprised no one that he would start 2009 in AAA. However, his success, or lack thereof, was surprising. His Ks went way down (5.88), his walks went up (3.49) and his ratios suffered: 5.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, the Jays, one of the smartest organizations in the American League East (and therefore baseball), realized that his strand rate (52.6%) was ridiculous, so they brought him up to the show for the majority of 2009.

While his season would look ugly (5.30 ERA, 5.37 FIP and 1.65 WHIP), he got his K-rate up to 6.65 and his walk rate was at 3.66. Meanwhile his BABIP (.338) and HR/FB rate (14.8%) seemed to suggest he was just darn unlucky.

The Jays and some fantasy owners expected a good step forward in 2010 and we got it. While his Ks went down a tad (6.10), his swinging strike percentage went up to 9.2%, his line drive rate went down and his ground balls went up. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.293) and HR/FB rate (8.7%) got closer to normal. At the end of the year, Cecil had a 4.22 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.33 WHIP spread across 28 starts.

This is where we are reminded that baseball is rarely a linear game. If you expected Cecil to take another step forward in 2011, you were dead wrong. He gave up five or six runs in three of his first five starts and had a 6.86 ERA at the end of April.

Cecil was dispatched back to AAA. While his Ks returned (7.21) and his walks went down (2.75), they weren’t exactly reflected in his ratios (5.26 ERA and 1.44).

Still, either the Jays believed in the underlying numbers or really needed an arm as Cecil returned to the majors on June 30, and promptly gave up six runs in 6.1 IPs against the lowly Pirates. A small matter of solace is that he managed to strike out six Buccos. At that point, his ERA sat at 7.24.

Well, remember when I said baseball wasn’t a linear game? Since June 30, in 10 starts and 70.1 IPs, Cecil has a 3.33 ERA and 46 Ks to only 20 walks. I love me some Brett Cecil. He is just 25 and already has 360+ MLB innings. I think he’ll finish the year strong and post 25-30 more Ks. You might want to avoid some of his tougher matchups, but, otherwise, I’m fine using him.

Felipe Paulino – In 2001, as an 18-year-old, Paulino was signed by the Houston Astros. He’d feel his way through Rookie Ball from 2003 – 2004 until 2005, when he pitched 55 innings spread across A- and A ball. He would look damn good too: 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Clearly, he was ready for A+…or, not as his Ks dwindled (6.48) and his walks skyrocketed (4.20). There was no silver lining in those numbers either, as his FIP (4.66) was actually worse than his terribly mediocre ERA (4.35).

Still, he got a promotion in 2007 to AA ball and got his swagger back: 8.84 K/9, 3.94 BB/9 and reasonable ratios (3.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). He’d start three games that year in the majors and appear in two others. His appearances would be utterly forgetful if they weren’t so tragically bad (7.11 ERA with a 20.8% HR/FB rate).

The roller coaster of a career would get bumpier in 2008, as he missed the majority of the season, tallying just 0.2 IPs in AAA. Undeterred, he was back in AAA in 2009. While his cosmetics looked good (3.12 ERA), he was walking everyone and their mom (5.97 BB/9), yet the Astros had no problem promoting him to the majors. While his Ks (8.57) looked promising and he appeared to get his walks (3.41) sort of in order, he still gave up a ton of long balls and line drives. At this point, it looked like Paulino was going to straddle the line between average reliever and below average starter.

His 2010 season did nothing to clear this up. The Ks remained, but he walked a ton more guys. However he was also the benefit of good and bad luck. While he had a totally serviceable line drive rate his, BABIP was .331 and, even with a low HR/FB rate, his strand rate was near criminal (58.5%). His unpalatable ERA (5.11) and FIP (3.44) weren’t in the same zip code. Of course, FIP takes into account his 3.6% HR/FB rate (which isn’t real sustainable), so when you look at xFIP (which normalizes the HR/FB rate), you get 4.36. Still that’s pretty darn good for a guy who can strike out a bunch of players.

Unfortunately, the Astros, in their infinite wisdom, didn’t see much in Paulino, shipping him to Colorado for Clint Barmes.  (I assume in an effort to motivate Jeff Keppinger or the other dozen or so replacement level middle infielders they had.)

The Rockies looked poise to give Paulino the Jorge de la Rosa treatment – however he couldn’t find his way into the rotation and had his contract sold to the Royals (a potential reverse de la Rosa move?).

Paulino has started 15 games for the Royals and has posted a 7.85 K/9 rate, 3.27 BB/9 rate, 3.83 ERA and 3.42 FIP). He is getting less solid contact with the Royals, yet his BABIP remains high. He is still getting a great swinging strike percentage which can lead to fantastic K games. In fact, over his last 10 starts and 61.1 IPs, he a 4.26 ERA and 55 Ks – not too shabby.

He’ll never likely be a sub-4.00 pitcher and there will be some ugly games when he walks the entire team. However, his ERA should hover in the mid-4.00s and provide a bevy of Ks. In deep leagues, I’m all over that kind of production.

Edwin Encarnacion – Encarnacion, or E5, was a ninth round pick of the Texas Rangers in 2000. However, before he could get his feet wet, he was shipped, along with Ruben Mateo, to Cincinnati for a reliever named Rob Bell.

In 2002, at A ball, Encarnacion looked awesome: 17 HRs, and a .282/.338/.458 line – sure the plate discipline (108 Ks to just 40 walks) would hurt his average development, but that’s fine with that kind of power.

Throughout the minors, Encarnacion just hit for power and hit for a decent average. From 2003 – 2007, he never batted below .272 at any level and currently has a .278/.345/.425 at AA and .329/.396/.565 line at AAA.

He earned near fulltime duties with the Reds in 2006 and rewarded them for their foresight with a .276/.359/.473 and 15 homers in 117 games. He wasn’t swinging and missing a ton (8.7%), was posting a fine line drive rate (21.1%) and his strike out rate (16.7%) and walk rate (8.8%) weren’t detrimental. Add all those up and he was going to be a major league regular with fine power for years to come.

Or not…as he struggled immensely out of the gate in 2007. At the end of April, he was batting .221/.294/.260 and was sitting at .250/.327/.357 at the end of May. At that point he had just three dingers and he began to lose playing time to Ryan Freel to free up space in the outfield for a former Rays prospect named Josh Hamilton. E5 was sent down to the minors on May 9, but would return two weeks later. After he returned, Encarnacion went .307/.370/.476 with 15 HRs in 108 games.

With Hamilton traded, 2008 was clearly going to be the year for Encarnacion to solidify himself as a solid MLB regular. While he hit 25 bombs, he batted just .251/.340/.466 and committed an ungodly 23 errors. Encarnacion was striking out a tad more but was also walking a bit more. For some reason, though, he wasn’t hitting the ball with much authority. His FB rate spiked, perhaps as he was trying to jack everything that came to him. This hurt his BABIP and destroyed his ability to get on base.

After going .209/.333/.374 in 43 games for the Reds in 2009, they shipped him, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. While E5 hit a few more homers for the Jays, he’d perform worse, stumbling to a .240/.306/.442 line.

His 2010 was little different – Encarnacion fielded poorly, hit some homers, but couldn’t get on base.

The following year seemed to be no different – at the end of June, 2011, he sat at .250/.283/.404. Encarnacion seemed finished. However, since that time he has gone .304/.388/.527 with nine homers in 50 games. He has struck out just 35 times and walked 23 times. While this is a small sample, it’s a huge step in the right direction if it can continue.

Encarnacion can hit .265-.280 the rest of the way with 5+ HRs. He’s good cheap power in a good deep lineup. Previously, I’ve wanted nothing to do with Encarnacion – I’m about to change my tune.

It turned out to be a darn good choice for Hochevar. In 2005, he set a school record for strikeouts, was named SEC player of the year and took home the prestigious Roger Clemens Award (given to the top D-I pitcher). For reasons unknown (wink), the award was discontinued in 2009 after only six years in existence. In addition to Hochevar, the other award winners are Jered Weaver, Andrew Miller, David Price and Aaron Crow.

Following his acclaimed college career, the Dodgers drafted Hochevar again, though this time in the first round (although 40th overall). As with so many other amateur players who are “advised” by Scott Boras, Hochevar’s negotiation with the Dodgers was long and contentious. At one point, Hochevar actually dumped Boras for another agent and accepted a $2.98 million signing bonus. The next day, however, Hochevar reunited with Boras and promptly reneged on the deal. Suffice it to say, nobody should have been surprised when the signing deadline passed and Hochevar was not a Dodger.

Hochevar re-entered the draft in 2006 and was selected first overall by Kansas City. The Royals showed him the money; Hochevar signed a four-year major league deal worth $5.3 million guaranteed, which included a $3.5 million signing bonus and additional incentives worth $1.7 million.

Hochevar began his professional career in 2007 (after being rated the #32 best prospect), pitching 152 innings between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he didn’t fare all that well at either level. In AA, he had a 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, but an incredibly impressive 3.62 K:BB rate. At AAA, he had a 5.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and less impressive 2.10 K:BB rate. Still, he was only 23.

In 2008, Hochevar, now the #63 best prospect, showed some impressive chops in AAA in the Pacific Coast League, a tough hitter’s league. He impressed the brass so much that he was promoted to the woeful major league squad. He didn’t get much of a welcome basket though, as he teammates gave him the lowest run support of any major league pitcher (2.8 runs per game). Still, it wasn’t entirely his teammate’s fault that he had a 6-12 record. He had a miserable 5.02 K/9 rate and an even more miserable 3.28 BB/9 rate, i.e. a 1.52 K:BB rate – that won’t cut it. His bullpen didn’t help much (62.3% strand rate) either.

Undeterred, the Royals continued to run him out there every fifth day in 2009. While his ERA was worse, the underlying numbers suggested Hochevar actually took a small step forward. He had a 6.67 K/9 rate, a 2.90 BB/9 rate and a 2.30 K:BB rate – something that could work on the major league level. He gave up a few more HRs than would seem logical, had a somewhat inflated BABIP (.321 compared to .300 for his career) and an even worse strand rate (59.3%) than in 2008.

Prior to 2010, the claim could be made that that Hochevar was improving, albeit incrementally. Well, if you look at his 2010 round numbers – 4.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP – it sure looks like the same ole crapola. However, he maintained a K:BB rate above 2.0 and his FIP was 3.93 (xFIP was 4.09) – certainly subtly positive signs.

Unfortunately, the incremental progress has stalled almost completely in 2011. His K/9 rate (5.12) is back in the sewer and his HRs are up. He has his first south-of-.300 BABIP, yet is wasting it completely.

I really thought, at this point, Hochevar would be an average MLB starter, someone in the Jeremy Guthrie mold who could do some nice things. While this belief has not come to fruition, it is still possible for him to take the necessary step forward.

Over his last 32.2 IPs and five starts, Hochevar has 26 Ks, a 3.58 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has walked just 10 batters. There is some momentum with Hochevar that I find appealing, especially in deep leagues where you have to gain some Ks from unlikely sources. (This was written before his latest start against the Boston Red Sox, which wasn’t great: 6 IPs, five ER, eight hits, three walks and four Ks. Still, going back to July 3, he has pitched 47.2 IPs with a 4.72 ERA and 37 Ks to 19 walks and he has the 30th most Ks over the last 30 days. )

He’s still barely a match-ups plays. However, if he keeps this up, he could be a nice bargain now and in 2012.  Plus, you get to say Hochevar, which I find fun. It reminds me of a fine cheese like manchego.

Mike Carp – If you don’t know the story of Mike Carp (for some reason I feel like I’m beginning the narration of Big Fish), well, sit a-spell. Also, how could you not know the ins and outs of the New York Mets 2004 ninth round draft pick? In 2005, and just 19 years old, Carp hit 19 bombs over 89 games in A ball. The following season, at the A+ level, he posted a .287/.379/.450 line and won the Sterling Award as the Mets organization player of the year.

Following this early success, Carp seemed destined to eventually win a job with the parent club. Unfortunately, he broke his finger in 2007 and stumbled to a .251/.337/.387 line in AA.

Repeating AA in 2008, and now 22, Carp returned to form: .299/.403/.471 – yep, a .400+ OBP and 17 HRs. He was on his way…to Seattle.

On December 11, 2008, Carp, as part of a three team deal, was sent to Seattle along with a few other guys including Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman for what amounted to J.J. Putz (the ghost of Jeremy Reed’s prospect was also involved).

Carp spent most of his time in AAA for the Mariners and looked good, going .271/.372/.446 with 15 HRs in 110 games. I know I had an eye on him when he made his major league debut, especially after he went .315/.415/.463 in his first 65 MLB plate appearances.

However, it wasn’t enough to get Carp full time duties in 2010 and he was sent back to AAA. Carp scuffled the entire season (though he showed some fantastic power), going .257/.328/.516 and notching just seven hits in 41 plate appearances in the Show. Of course, Carp, after posting BABIPs well over .300 the last previous seasons in minors, finished with just a .259 average on balls in play.

The bloom was definitely not off the rose yet. Carp came out blazing in 2011, hitting .347/.414/.653 in AAA with 21 HRs in just 66 games. He hasn’t stopped in the majors either: .325/.382/.517 with six homers in 40 games.

While I’ve been overwhelmingly positive about Carp, I must mention the gargantuan elephant in the room: his .410 BABIP. He does have an unprecedented 29.7% line drive rate, but he is swinging and missing a ton: 14.9% and striking out a fair bit: 24.2%. It’s only a matter of time before major league pitchers make the adjustment and give him the Delmon Young treatment (i.e., nothing good to hit). Still, the kid is capable of taking a pitch and should be able to handle that bump. Until that bump comes, however, you need to be starting him in most every league. He is that locked in. I haven’t been this excited since Kevin Bass went .244/.303/.336 for the Orioles in 1995, and then promptly retired.

Brandon McCarthy – About seven years ago, Brandon McCarthy was on his way to being better known than Andrew McCarthy. As a 20-year-old, splitting time between A, A+ and AAA, McCarthy, a former 17th round draft pick of the White Sox in 2002, posted a 3.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He struck out 202 batters in just 172 innings and walked only 30. He had a 6.73 K:BB rate.

Before 2005, McCarthy was rated the #49 prospect and looked good at AAA: 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 rate and 4.06 K:BB rate. He was brought up to the major league club, appeared in 12 games and started 10. If you looked at the cosmetics, his 4.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP certainly foretold greatness. However, he had a .249 BABIP, an 81.2% strand rate and only posted a 6.45 K/9 rate.

The White Sox didn’t want to stress the young hurler, so they kept him in the bullpen for most of 2006. His strikeout rates benefitted, but he walked more guys and didn’t resemble anything near a top 50 prospect – finishing with a 4.68 ERA, 5.30 FIP and 4.60 xFIP.

In the offseason, he was shipped to Texas for, predominantly, John Danks and Nick Masset – that one didn’t work out so well for Rangers.

McCarthy posted dismal K numbers during his first year with Texas and increased his walks, some of which might have been due to injury. After just 22 starts, the Rangers shut McCarthy down due to a stress fracture in his right shoulderblade.

McCarthy developed inflammation in his right elbow during Spring Training the next year and missed a sizeable chunk of the season. He pitched in the majors sparingly for Texas in 2009, but his time with the major league squad was done after that season. Overall, he pitched just 221 IPs with a 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.46 K:BB ratio for the big league club. He was worth barely one win above a replacement player during his tenure.

He did pitch 56 innings in the minors in 2010 for the Rangers. He looked good: 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 4.00 K:BB ratio. However he was granted free agency on November 5, 2010.

The Oakland Athletics made a play for McCarthy and signed him on December 14, 2010.

While battling chronic injuries, McCarthy has been a boon to a beleaguered Athletics rotation. He has taken the ball 18 times now, spread across 118 innings – the most he has pitched in the majors in any season. He has his same old pedestrian K-rate (5.87) but he has really cut down on his walks (just 1.37), giving himself a fantastic 4.28 K:BB rate. Apparently pitching in a more forgiving ballpark has given McCarthy the confidence to just throw strikes.

While his strand rate is a little generous (63.7%), it is mostly due to a stellar bullpen and a lack of homeruns – two things that seem to be constants for the A’s. His ERA (3.74), FIP (2.82) and xFIP (3.39) all paint a rosy picture for the one-time stud.

McCarthy, just recently 28, is a nice pitcher who can help control your ratios down the stretch. He’s a prefect compliment to someone like Bud Norris or Ryan Dempster, who bring the Ks, but also the high ratios. He is only 19% owned, so go out and get him for the stretch run.