Lorenzo Cain (ESPN 5.9%/Yahoo 15%/Fleaflicker 29%): March Grey told you to buy him and now whenever this gets posted ONC is telling you to stash him if you can.  He was recently sent to rehab which is worrisome.  I didn’t think he was friends with Josh Hamilton *re-reads news blurb* Ah, he’s been sent on his rehab assignment to double-AA as of April 22nd and there is hope he’ll be back within a week.  If your DL spot is lonely, give it a little Sugar!

Mike Carp (ESPN 1.7%/Yahoo 13%/Fleaflicker 16%): It’s hard to tell which Carp is going to show up at your door.  Will it be the one pan-seared in butter with rosemary and thyme that gave us a .322 average and 8 homers from July through August of 2011 or will he be the September Carp that your cat found in your neighbor’s trash can and drop a .230 average on you while still hitting 4 bombs?  And was that first analogy delicious or what?  The power is real, the average should be about .270′ish and he should be back as soon as he demonstrates he can play something other than DH.  Go Fish!

Freddy Sanchez (ESPN 0.4%/Yahoo 2%/Fleaflicker 2%): This one may be more of a deep league or NL-Only call, but all I can say is he can hit .300 while providing a decent amount of runs with little to no power nor speed.  Wanna know who that reminds me of?  Daniel Murphy, the guy who’s hitting .321 who has scored 5 runs and has a 0/0 in the homerun and stolen base department through 14 games and is owned at a 92.6% clip over at ESPN.  You say poh-tay-toe I say tubers because I like being difficult.  He is set to begin his rehab assignment on April 23rd.  If you’re in need, there are worse things you can do to your middle infield than give it a Freddy Sanchez.

The best team in a standard 12 team ESPN league – which is about as close to the league I’m describing is going to come – is hitting one point higher than me.  Or at least I thought they were until I noticed the part where Grey says ‘These are all for one catcher leagues.  If you have two catcher leagues, the counting stats go up a little bit and down a little on average.’  And that’s me quoting Grey, mimicking his ‘that’s me quoting me’ quoting style with bold italics for emphasis!  To keep with the Q theme, it looks like our average met our quota.  In fact, when you consider this team essentially rosters 2 more hitters than a standard ESPN league, this team might be ahead of the curve at this point.  If you’re wondering about the counting stats and how they line up because you REALLY don’t like that this crazy idea just might work, I’ll save you the math trouble.  Based on projections, this team is going to be at or above league average in runs (1191 vs 1045), RBIs (1195 vs 1008) and HRs (360 vs 261).  The only category we’re lacking in is stolen bases as we estimate to get about 145 vs the need for 186.  Considering the leg up we have on the other categories, we get to trade from strength or be ready for when SAGNOF is coming to town.

Just to make sure you don’t think of me as some crazy, calculating genius who sits down and does this before I draft, realize I just did the math this morning as I typed this article.  I’m not saying that because I’m flippant about who and what I post about.  I did it since I knew the title of this article was ‘It All AVGs Out’ and guess what…it usually does and it did!  The moral of this story is don’t read a fantasy baseball blog if you’re looking for a story with morals…wait, that’s not it!  It should be ‘Don’t let your team become average just to avoid having a bad one.’

Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.

Dan Uggla – This is the most miraculous push in the history of the world. After Uggla’s horrendous start to the season, he rebounded to bat .234 but with 35 HRs.

Jimmy Rollins – Consensus had Rollins as a top 5 option. Rollins is 6th at the position. However a bigger pre-draft split was where he should fall overall. I thought Rollins could push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but rest on the low end of each. He had 14 HRs and 28 SBs. We also saw his average stay below .275. If you drafted Rollins in the top 50, you are probably somewhat disappointed.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a tricky player to write about all year. I liked him, but the hype was a little ridiculous. While I would rather have Nick Swisher, I thought Rasmus was capable of hitting .260 with 20-25 HRs and 15 SBs. Petty squabbles in St. Louis and poor health have Rasmus at 14 HRs, five steals and a .235 average. I was clearly wrong on my projection.

Jason Bartlett – I thought Bartlett could get back to batting .275 (didn’t happen: .251), but I also thought he was a good bet to reach 20 – 30 SBs (he has 23). It’s a wash, but with how bad the SS position has been, he’s been a useful figure in 2011.

Nick Swisher – God it is disgusting how dirty good Brian Cashman is – he absolutely stole Swisher from Kenny Williams. Still, the entire fantasy community also seems to sleep on Swish, as he was the 33^rd consensus OF. Well, he is the 31^st OF, so they were closer in terms of ranking.

Gio Gonzalez – I had Gonzalez as the 42^nd best SP, consensus put him around 49, and he will end up about 46^th overall. So maybe I overvalued him…or maybe not.  I predicted a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 200 Ks. Right now, he has bested my ERA prediction (3.41 ERA) and come very close to meeting my WHIP prediction (1.37 WHIP). He has 177 Ks, so he’ll likely fall a tad short of 200.

Will Venable – While, technically, I had Venable ranked higher than most people, I still warned against the hype I saw building. Specifically, I said that his ceiling of a .320 OBP and the amount of balls he swings at out of the zone wouldn’t get him anywhere near the 30 steals he approached last season. Well, he currently sits at 26 – whoops. I did add in the caveat that we could see some weird things with the Padres this year, i.e., that in the absence of any real offense, their players would be running silly and that could artificially buoy Venable’s SB number. So, I was sort of correct in my Venable assessment.

Mark Reynolds – It’s so weird to be wrong about a known commodity. I had Reynolds buried on the draft board (22^nd 3b), whereas consensus had him a bit higher. I believed he was a .240 hitter with 35 HRs and 10 SBs. He has actually batted worse (.222) and has 36 HRs and just 6 SBs, but has come in as the 6^th best 3b for the year. What a dreadful position.

Edwin Jackson – Partly because he was born in Germany, partly because I believed in the Chicago White Sox pitching coaches, I thought Jackson would have a nice year. I expected an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range with 170 Ks. He has fallen short of the Ks (he has just 146) but his ERA has been a nice surprise (3.85). Sure the WHIP is miserable, but he wasn’t that bad of a pitcher.

Chris Iannetta – I had Iannetta as a sleeper for the millionth year in a row, expecting a .250 hitter with 15 HRs (with upside as well). Well, Iannetta has batted just .236 this year but does have 13 HRs. He hasn’t helped at all down the stretch though and has really sputtered out. It would be nice if he batted anything other than eighth, but you have to play the cards you’re dealt.

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

Friday, September 23rd

Carl Pavano – Against the Indians this year, he’s been a Pava…yes.  See what I did there?  Spectacular!

Rick Porcello – The deal right now, in these last few days of September, is go big or go home or don’t go big and don’t go home.  In other words, you have to decide if you need to start a whole mess of guys to try and win, or if you can coast like the Phils.  Don’t fully trust Porcello but he’s better than some other schmohawks.

R.A. Dickey – He hasn’t been bad in two months and he gets the playoff-bound Phils.  I do tend to shy away from knuckleballers with Dickey being one.  (Must’ve been so hard for him growing up with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  I imagine it’s hard for anyone under the age of 45 to be a knuckleballer.  Knuckleballers don’t exactly pull the girls.  Or maybe they don’t pull girls so that’s why they become knuckleballers.  Deep thoughts with Grey Albright.)

Brett Myers – I nearly put Drew Pomenranz here too (his opponent).  One million ways to stream, choose one.

Aaron Harang – A few pitchers I liked for today were left off because they were just above 50% owned.  Basically, every pitcher on this Friday is a good spot start.

Saturday, September 24th

Cory Luebke – As good as Friday was for spot starters, Saturday’s that bad.  For full disclosure, I nearly suggested Jerome Williams, but then I thought about Jerome Williams and I decided nah.  Not a capital nah or a no way, just a small quiet nah.

Sunday, September 25th

Mike Minor – Not great matchups today either.  I mean, there’s some good pitchers going but they’re owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Minor’s at least good for some Ks.  BTW, this start could change if the Braves have already clinched.  Then Detwiler’s start vs them wouldn’t look as bad.

Edwin Jackson – Gave me a pretty lousy start last time he appeared in the borderline starter post (5 IP, 5 ER), but I’m a glutton for punishment.  Not gluten, gross.

Monday, September 26th

Randall Delgado – Will be a bit dependent on where the Braves are in the playoff race, but whether they’re in it or out of it, they’re going against the Phils who have packed it up.

Randy Wells – Only because he goes against the Padres in Petco.  On a related note, what are the Cubs doing in San Diego at the end of the season?  I can only imagine how well this would’ve went down if the Cubs were in the playoff chase… Okay, as hard as that is to imagine.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s only listed here because he was under 50% owned when I wrote this up.  I imagine by Monday he won’t be under 50% anymore.  He might not even be by today.

Jason Vargas – Him and McCarthy go against each other.  I don’t stream two pitchers in the same game, but chances are McCarthy will be gone and Vargas could throw a decent game, as well.

Tuesday, September 27th

Jeanmar Gomez – Sounds like a Swedish Latino, doesn’t he?  Swexicano?  Not the greatest of matchups with Gomez going against the Tigers if it wasn’t for the fact the Tigers will be resting for the playoffs.

Wednesday, September 28th

R.A. Dickey – Look at me, double dipping on Dickey this week.  That’s what she said!  Though I’m not sure why she would say that.  It’s not like it would reflect well on her.

Eric Surkamp – Unlike previous years, the Rockies folded up their blankets and checked out in August.  If Surkamp’s gone, I’d look at his opponent, Pomeranz, simply because the Giants aren’t that good.

Brett Myers – The last day of the season is actually a great day to stream pitchers.  Hitters take the last day off, managers bring in Triple-A hitters just to give them a chance to play, people check out, basically.

Brad Peacock – Thankfully, he’s not facing Dickey on the last day of the season because then my head would’ve exploded.  The one on my shoulders.

Given the first round pedigree and moderate success, Baseball America rated him the #83 prospect before the 2006 season. Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start and suffered a leg injury, resulting in just 234 plate appearances. He would never appear on another Baseball America top 100 list.

Still, in the following season, he finally got a full season of minor league ball, appearing in 138 games across A+ and AA ball. The results weren’t good for the 23-year-old: .253/.348/.368 – but hey, the slugging percentage was higher than his OBP! At least Pennington showed an advanced approach at the plate, posting a walk rate north of 12% and not striking out a whole lot.

There was still potential in the shortstop given that approach and it appeared he made use of his tools in 2008. He started off in AA, posting a .260/.379/.314 line. The batting average and power were absent – however the near 16% walk rate showed that he had mastered that level of pitching. Pennington was promoted to AAA and would get 294 plate appearances and do some damage: .297/.426/.386. Across both levels he had 31 steals in 37 attempts. He earned a quick cup of coffee for his efforts and batted .242/.339/.293 in the majors. He held his own with an 11.1% walk rate and 15.4% K rate.

Still, he started 2009 in AAA and didn’t quite perform as well. His BABIP dropped from .338 in 2008 to .300 and his slash line followed (.264/.345/.367). Still he was walking and not striking out a lot, so the Athletics brought him to the majors.

He batted an impressive .279/.342/.418 in 229 plate appearances in 2009 – although the line was buoyed by a .342 BABIP that wasn’t supported by great contact (just an 18.5% line drive rate). He was also striking out a lot, not walking nearly as much as you would like and he wasn’t successful stealing. It was hard to see where Pennington’s value would come from if (when) that BABIP normalized.

In his first full year in the majors, 2010, Pennington’s BABIP normalized to .296 (even though he hit more line drives: 21.5%) and his slash line suffered. He hit just two more homers than he did in 2009 in nearly 350 more at bats. Still, he stole 29 bases and was caught just five times. The steals were nice, but their value was useless given his inability to get on base/hit for a good average. Still he wasn’t hitting a ton of ground balls (just 35.6%) and the line drive rate should have produced a slightly better BABIP.

The question remained whether Pennington could hit the ball well enough to be fantasy relevant. Well, he has a 24.9% line drive rate this year and an improved and sustainable BABIP at .316. He is hitting a not awful .265/.321/.367. Unfortunately, he is just 13/22 in stolen base attempts and has only eight homers.

However, he’s been damn good since July 15. It’s a small sample (56 games and 232 plate appearances), but he owns a .309/.371/.454 line. Of course he has a .376 BABIP during that time and the competition usually gets weaker as the season goes on.

This year has been a nice step forward for Pennington and he is entering his prime. You cannot bank on him to continue his second half trend going into next season. He hasn’t mastered the strike zone like you would expect and he still hits too many fly balls for his home ballpark. It would not surprise me if he finds his way inside the top 10 at his position next year and does have upside to the 5-7 range. So he’ll be a good gamble late in drafts – but is far too risky to count on in anything other than AL-only leagues. That said, I’m happily riding him down the stretch.

Nolan Reimold – A former standout at Bowling Green State University, Reimold was the 61st overall selection in the 2005 MLB Draft. He played pretty well in the minors in his initial stint (73 games): .285/.385/.551 with 15 homers across A- and A+.

He drew the attention of Baseball America and was rated the #99 prospect in baseball before the 2006 season. However his grasp on the top 100 would slip through his fingers after a somewhat poor season at A+. He struck out a good bit (21.2%), but still walked enough and hit for enough power to remain intriguing.

He played sparingly, but well in 2007 at AA. In just 50 games, he hit .306/.365/.565. The power was there, but he struck out a ton (23.2%) and had an inflated BABIP (.359). Still, he was the #91 prospect going into the 2008 season.

He spent the entire 2008 season in AA and looked good: .284/367/.501 and really cut down his Ks (14%). He earned his promotion to AAA in 2009. He wouldn’t be there long though – after 31 games and a .394/.485/.743 line, he made his way to the big league club. On May 20, against the hated New York Yankees, Reimold hit his first career homer – it happened to be off Mariano Rivera – pretty sweet. Then, seven days later, he hit a walk-off dinger in the 11th against the Blue Jays. Reimold finished the year with 15 HRs and a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances.

Clearly, 2010 would be a 20-HR campaign with the RBIs to go with them. Unfortunately, Reimold battled injuries and inconsistency. He played just 39 games for the big league club and struggled to a .207/.282/.328 line. He struck out more, even though he swung and missed less. While his line drive rate dipped to 12% (from 14.4% the year before), his BABIP really dipped – all the way to .236. In addition, his HR/FB rate dropped to 8.3%. Either Reimold suddenly got terrible, or he was the victim of serious bad juju.

While he spent time in the minors in 2011, he has mostly returned to form in the majors. Clearly his .235/.324/.429 leave a lot to be desired but his ISO, HR/FB% and line drive rate are all in line with 2009. His average on balls in play is still a tad low, so there is room for optimism that he can improve the rest of the way and in 2012.

He is probably not viable in 10-team leagues next year. However, he should have enough mojo for every other kind of league – he could legitimately hit 20-30 HRs.

Friday, September 16th

Philip Humber – It’s really slim pickins on Friday for under 50% owned starters.  I’m not a huge fan of Humber but compared to some of the other schmohawks, well, here he is.

Jeff Locke – On Friday, Locke goes against the Smoke Monster in chess and the Dodgers’ weak offense.

Saturday, September 17th

Jeanmar Gomez – Gets the Twins, has only given up 3 earned in the last 17 and a third innings and when you say his first name it causes phlegm.

Rick Porcello – Don’t trust Porcello at all but he goes to a -co stadium and faces the A’s.

Chris Volstad – In his last three starts, 17 1/3 IP and 3.12 ERA.  Here he takes on the Nats and Strasburg’s three to five innings of work.

Sunday, September 18th

Joe Saunders – In 22 innings vs. the Padres, he has a 2.05 ERA and a .190 BAA.  Kill me now for recommending Saunders.

Matt Harrison – 1.84 ERA vs. the Mariners, though I’m not sure there’s any pitchers with a 2+ ERA vs. the M’s.  Maybe Liriano or Danks.  Schmohawks.

Brad Lincoln – Gave a pretty yawnstipating start last time out, but here I am going back to the well like Baby Jessica.

Monday, September 19th

David Huff – I never said the names on this list were gonna be pretty.  There’s only a few teams I could see starting Huff against:  the Mariners and the Mariners minor league affiliates.

Mike Minor – He just dismantled the Marlins (with a four walk performance in 5 2/3 innings — technicalities!).

Tuesday, September 20th

Jason Vargas – Choices aren’t Grade A when I’m taking on a Mariners starter, but it was between him and To Be Announced.  And I don’t like To Be Announced’s matchup.

Edwin Jackson – Highest compliment I can give any guys on this list is when I think one should be owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Jackson’s one of those guys.

Derek Holland – Last three starts (when this was written), 1.77 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 1/3 IP.

Wednesday, September 21st

Dana Eveland – He/she gets the Giants in Chavez Ravine.  Giants have a .236 average vs. lefties, which is only slightly worse than what they’re batting against righties.  As for the lack of other options today, they were kinda Plouffey.  I almost put down Brett Cecil, but he’s all over the map and not in the good traveling circus kind of way.

Things started out well for Pagan. He dominated rookie ball in 2000 and A- and A ball in 2001. Things got a little tougher as he got to A+ ball in 2003. He went just .249/.307/.313 with 35 steals in 50 attempts. He flashed very little power and poor plate discipline (104 Ks to just 46 walks).

Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from promoting him to AA the following year. His 2004 season would be terrific (.287/.346/.413) and validated the decision. At 23, if he could show good success in AAA in 2005, he’d be a shoo-in for a call-up. Unfortunately, he never really got going, finishing with a .271/.333/.395 line with 27 steals in 45 attempts.

The, on January 25, 2006, the Chicago Cubs purchased Pagan’s contract. He spent the majority of 2006 in the majors, although he suffered a lot of injuries and missed over two months. In 187 plate appearances, he went .247/.306/.394. Still, on July 2, his 25th birthday, Pagan hit two dingers – they just happened to be the first two of his career. Pagan was, quickly, a Major League record holder, being the first player to hit his first two career homers on his birthday.

However that would be the highlight of his tenure with the Cubs. The following season, 2007, Pagan had similar struggles as 2006: he struck out a decent bit, didn’t walk at all and got hurt again (suffering from colitis and losing a lot of weight). The Cubs traded him back to the Mets for two guys you’ve likely never heard of: Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers.

Abracadabra, Pagan was the starting left fielder for the Mets in 2008 thanks to Moises Alou’s general brittleness. He ceded the position back to Alou in early May and injured his shoulder making a spectacular grab against the Dodgers on May 7. He had season ending surgery on July 29. Still, all was not lost, as he finished with a .275/.346/.374 line, brought his Ks down a tad and his walks up a good bit. He also started to hit line drives (23%) and his swinging strike rate dipped below 5% after being 7.1% the previous two years. Still, it was just 105 plate appearances, so nothing was certain for 2009.

Let’s just say, May 7 is a pretty unlucky day for Pagan. A year to the day after his season-ending catch, Pagan was arrested for traffic violations as there were several warrants out for his arrest for failure to pay other traffic fines. His legal problems didn’t hold him back though, rather his old arch nemesis did: his health. He went on the DL on June 1 with a groin strain. But he made his way back and, on August 1, hit a grand slam – his first home run since 2007 and his first for the team that drafted him. While Pagan had a nice BABIP (.349), his .306/.350/.487 line was not completely unexpected. He continued to have a line drive rate hovering around 20% and he swung and missed just 4.2% of the time – he was putting the ball in play more and hitting it well.

In that context, his break-out 2010 made sense. In fact, you could have argued that his .290/.340/.425 line was underwhelming given that the power wasn’t there at levels you’d expect.

Given his career arc, 2011 should have been a repeat of 2010 with an uptick in most numbers. That hasn’t happened. As has been the case throughout his career, Pagan has battled injuries. However, his BABIP (.288) is sitting a lot lower than it should compared to his career with the Mets (never lower than .330) given he has a massive 24% line drive rate. His K-rate is just 10.9% and his swinging strike percentage is quite low as well – he is putting the ball in play and he is hitting the ball hard. He’s been tremendously unlucky. If healthy, Pagan is a huge asset down the stretch, capable of batting well with some light pop and a good amount of steals. I also think he’ll be a bargain for 2012.

Matt Wieters – The Orioles have sucked for a long time…not Nationals-level sucking (which resulted in back-to-back drafts yielding Strasburg and Harper), but certainly bad enough to land some sort of blue chip future superstar. When Wieters was selected fifth overall in 2007, he was supposed to be that blue chip.

Wieters was a man amongst toddlers during his entire minor league career. He went .345/.448/.576 in A+ ball and .365/.460/.625 in AA in 2008. In 2009, he posted a .305/.387/.504 line in AAA before earning the call.

In his second career game, he had his first major league hit, a triple against Justin Verlander. He hit his first major league home run off the hated Mets. Wieters finished 2009 with a .288/.340/.412 line in the majors. There were definite growing pains, though. He swung and missed a lot (10.5% of the time) and posted a 22.3% K-rate compared to a sub-optimal 7.3% walk rate. In addition, his power (just nine dingers and a .124 ISO) came nowhere near his minor league numbers.

The last red flag was his .356 BABIP (which was in line with what he did in the minors). However, his line drive rate was acceptable (18.5%), but not nearly good enough to sustain a BABIP anywhere close to .350.

Sure enough, 2010 brought massive struggles. Wieters finished with a .249/.319/.377 line – worse at each slash than 2009. Still, his ISO was up a smidge, his walk rate neared 10% and he swung and missed less. However, he didn’t make real good contact (15.4% line drive rate) and hit way too many ground balls for a catcher. Not surprisingly, his BABIP was just .287.

There wasn’t a ton of optimism heading into 2011, but there were a lot of ‘ifs.’ If Wieters got his line drives up, if he continued to cut down on the Ks, if he started to drive the ball, things could, maybe, break the right way. Well, they have, sort of. Wieters sits at .263/.324/.434. His K-rate has continued its decline and his HR/FB rate has finally reach double digits (his ISO is now .171). He is also hitting the ball better (17.8% line drive rate) without much change in his BABIP from 2010.

Wieters will make a fine catcher down the stretch. I believe in the steps he has taken and think his BABIP should shoot above .300 next year, which could result in a nice average from a catcher. As he continues to mature, he’ll drive the ball more and more. Look out 2012, Wieters is going to be a star.*

*In interest of full disclosure, I’m an Orioles fan. However, I’m a huge pessimist when it comes to my teams (Orioles and Eagles, predominantly). I’d rather bet on the under and have someone exceed my expectations than sour on a player (*ahem* Manny Alexander, Jeffrey Hammonds) after I placed high expectations on them. So, I think I’m as objective as possible on Wieters. His numbers tell a story, a story I want to invest in as a fantasy owner.

James McDonald – The Dodgers took McDonald as a draft and follow pick in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. This allowed him to go to Golden West College before starting in the majors. McDonald, a Long Beach Poly student (a school that boasts Tony Gwynn, Milton Bradley, Chase Utley, Tyus Edney, DeSean Jackson, Winston Justice, Willie McGinest, Billie Jean King, Cameron Diaz, Snoop Dogg, Carl Weathers!, and others as graduates), must have been thrilled that his hometown club took him.

In 2003, McDonald started off well for the Gulf Coast Dodgers, however he missed all of 2004 and most of 2005 with an injury. He came back to start 22 games and make eight relief appearances for the Ogden Raptors in A ball in 2006. He finished with a 3.98 ERA and 1.29 WHIP but just a 2.25 K:BB rate.

He took a nice stride in 2007 across A+ and AA ball, finishing with a 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a mighty fine 4.54 K:BB rate. He was named the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year.

The following year, across AA and AAA, McDonald looked to have pitched quite well with a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, his K:BB rate (2.66) was nothing special for a 23-year-old. Still, he made his major league debut with the big league club, working one scoreless inning of relief against (oddly enough) the Pittsburgh Pirates.

McDonald’s career had pointed at 2009 as the day he would take the mound as a starter for his hometown club. Unfortunately, things didn’t go well. In his first start, he didn’t escape the third inning. He only got three more starts, making it to the fifth in just one, before being banished to the bullpen. With a 6.75 ERA on May 14, McDonald got his second banishment: to AAA. Quite simply, McDonald had real problems with his control, walking 4.75+ batters per 9 – that aint gonna cut it.

McDonald started 2010 in the minors, putting up decent Ks but a bit too many walks. The Dodgers were done with him. Along with Andrew Lambo, the Dodgers exiled McDonald to Pittsburgh for the services of a fringe-above-average reliever in Octavio Dotel. Looking back, though, wasn’t that a favor to McDonald? The Dodgers are an absolute mess and the Pirates have some young players that look good. If I’m an alien, I’d rather be a Pirates fan than Dodgers fan right now…maybe (it’d be hard to give up rooting for Kemp/Kershaw).
Anyway, McDonald blossomed in Pittsburgh. He started 11 games for the club in 2010 and posted a 3.52 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.84xFIP, 8.58 K/9 rate and 3.38 BB/9 rate – huge improvements.

While he has been a little lucky in 2011 (78.7% strand rate) and his Ks have taken a bit of a step back (7.5 per 9), he is getting good swinging strike rates (8.2%), is giving up less line drives (18.7%) and has greatly improved his ground ball rate (42.1%). I’d happily trade a handful of Ks for many more balls hit on the ground. McDonald seems to be settling himself in as a solid MLB pitcher for the next few years. He is by no means sexy, but could carve himself a very similar career to Ted Lilly. He’s a nice player to own for the rest of the season and for the next few years.

Friday, September 9th

Bud Norris – Has a great K-rate and goes against the Nationals, a team that is 2nd in the majors in strikeouts.  Could see him getting tagged for a homer or two, but should give you 6 innings and at least 6 Ks.  There’s a chance here for a 7 IP, 10 Ks game.  Fancy me some of that!

Jeff Francis – Game is in Safeco.  Yes, that’s all you need to know.  A recurring theme will emerge.  Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”  See?

Saturday, September 10th

Henderson Alvarez – My very-risky-may-not-be-risky-at-all start of the week.  Why do I sound like a less racist Jimmy The Greek?  Alvarez won’t strikeout many guys but, as long as balls don’t find holes — that’s what she said! — he should be okay.

Chris Capuano – Has been better in Metco than on the road and he gets the below-average Cubs offense at home.

John Lannan – I aforementioned this shizz if you read the lead — or lede if you’re an old-timer who likes the feel of a newspaper, Lannan’s home ERA is under 3 and he gets the Astros.

Edwin Jackson – This start worries me and I debated leaving it off, so there’s that.

Wade Miley – He gets the Padres.  This will be another recurring theme –  Recurring Theme, “Padres!” — but not for this week.  Recurring Theme, “My bad.”

Sunday, September 11th

Javier Vazquez – He falls under the 50% owned threshold, but he really shouldn’t.  So this one’s kind of a gimme.  Now watch him drop an upper decker.

Monday, September 12th

Brad Lincoln – Four score and four straight quality starts ago, he was a middle reliever.  Now he gets a team (the Cards) that he threw six shutout innings against.

Mike Leake – In 23 innings, he has a 2.74 ERA vs. the Cubs, including his last game where he was within an out of a one-hitter.

R.A. Dickey – He rematches against Wang for the Toilet Bowl II.

Phil Hughes – Recurring Theme, “Safeco!”

Aaron Harang – He goes against the Giants and rookie Surkamp, who I almost listed here too.  Conflict of interests yadda³.

Tuesday, September 13th

Guillermo Moscoso – Honestly, only because I had to pick someone.  It’s Tuesday the 13th… Spooky!

Wednesday, September 14th

Brandon McCarthy – I expect he’s gonna get rattled in his Friday start vs. the Rangers because, ya know, they’re good.  Here he goes against the Torii Hunter Peter Bourjos Vernon Wells Howie Kendrick Mark Trumbo-led Angels.

Chris Narveson – There’s a chance this start may not happen, but if it does against Colorado… Keep on pushing my love to the borderline…fantasy baseball starters.

In 2007, the Blue Jays made Cecil the 38th overall selection in the draft. He pitched a bit in A- ball for the Jays in 2007, showing some promising signs: 10.15 K/9 rate, just 1.99 BB/9 and a 1.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts.

In 2008, he split time between A+, AA and AAA, pitching quite well at each stop. The majority of damage came at AA. In 18 starts, he posted a 10.08 K/9 rate, 2.67 BB/9 rate, 2.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

It surprised no one that he would start 2009 in AAA. However, his success, or lack thereof, was surprising. His Ks went way down (5.88), his walks went up (3.49) and his ratios suffered: 5.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, the Jays, one of the smartest organizations in the American League East (and therefore baseball), realized that his strand rate (52.6%) was ridiculous, so they brought him up to the show for the majority of 2009.

While his season would look ugly (5.30 ERA, 5.37 FIP and 1.65 WHIP), he got his K-rate up to 6.65 and his walk rate was at 3.66. Meanwhile his BABIP (.338) and HR/FB rate (14.8%) seemed to suggest he was just darn unlucky.

The Jays and some fantasy owners expected a good step forward in 2010 and we got it. While his Ks went down a tad (6.10), his swinging strike percentage went up to 9.2%, his line drive rate went down and his ground balls went up. Not surprisingly, his BABIP (.293) and HR/FB rate (8.7%) got closer to normal. At the end of the year, Cecil had a 4.22 ERA, 4.03 FIP and 1.33 WHIP spread across 28 starts.

This is where we are reminded that baseball is rarely a linear game. If you expected Cecil to take another step forward in 2011, you were dead wrong. He gave up five or six runs in three of his first five starts and had a 6.86 ERA at the end of April.

Cecil was dispatched back to AAA. While his Ks returned (7.21) and his walks went down (2.75), they weren’t exactly reflected in his ratios (5.26 ERA and 1.44).

Still, either the Jays believed in the underlying numbers or really needed an arm as Cecil returned to the majors on June 30, and promptly gave up six runs in 6.1 IPs against the lowly Pirates. A small matter of solace is that he managed to strike out six Buccos. At that point, his ERA sat at 7.24.

Well, remember when I said baseball wasn’t a linear game? Since June 30, in 10 starts and 70.1 IPs, Cecil has a 3.33 ERA and 46 Ks to only 20 walks. I love me some Brett Cecil. He is just 25 and already has 360+ MLB innings. I think he’ll finish the year strong and post 25-30 more Ks. You might want to avoid some of his tougher matchups, but, otherwise, I’m fine using him.

Felipe Paulino – In 2001, as an 18-year-old, Paulino was signed by the Houston Astros. He’d feel his way through Rookie Ball from 2003 – 2004 until 2005, when he pitched 55 innings spread across A- and A ball. He would look damn good too: 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Clearly, he was ready for A+…or, not as his Ks dwindled (6.48) and his walks skyrocketed (4.20). There was no silver lining in those numbers either, as his FIP (4.66) was actually worse than his terribly mediocre ERA (4.35).

Still, he got a promotion in 2007 to AA ball and got his swagger back: 8.84 K/9, 3.94 BB/9 and reasonable ratios (3.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP). He’d start three games that year in the majors and appear in two others. His appearances would be utterly forgetful if they weren’t so tragically bad (7.11 ERA with a 20.8% HR/FB rate).

The roller coaster of a career would get bumpier in 2008, as he missed the majority of the season, tallying just 0.2 IPs in AAA. Undeterred, he was back in AAA in 2009. While his cosmetics looked good (3.12 ERA), he was walking everyone and their mom (5.97 BB/9), yet the Astros had no problem promoting him to the majors. While his Ks (8.57) looked promising and he appeared to get his walks (3.41) sort of in order, he still gave up a ton of long balls and line drives. At this point, it looked like Paulino was going to straddle the line between average reliever and below average starter.

His 2010 season did nothing to clear this up. The Ks remained, but he walked a ton more guys. However he was also the benefit of good and bad luck. While he had a totally serviceable line drive rate his, BABIP was .331 and, even with a low HR/FB rate, his strand rate was near criminal (58.5%). His unpalatable ERA (5.11) and FIP (3.44) weren’t in the same zip code. Of course, FIP takes into account his 3.6% HR/FB rate (which isn’t real sustainable), so when you look at xFIP (which normalizes the HR/FB rate), you get 4.36. Still that’s pretty darn good for a guy who can strike out a bunch of players.

Unfortunately, the Astros, in their infinite wisdom, didn’t see much in Paulino, shipping him to Colorado for Clint Barmes.  (I assume in an effort to motivate Jeff Keppinger or the other dozen or so replacement level middle infielders they had.)

The Rockies looked poise to give Paulino the Jorge de la Rosa treatment – however he couldn’t find his way into the rotation and had his contract sold to the Royals (a potential reverse de la Rosa move?).

Paulino has started 15 games for the Royals and has posted a 7.85 K/9 rate, 3.27 BB/9 rate, 3.83 ERA and 3.42 FIP). He is getting less solid contact with the Royals, yet his BABIP remains high. He is still getting a great swinging strike percentage which can lead to fantastic K games. In fact, over his last 10 starts and 61.1 IPs, he a 4.26 ERA and 55 Ks – not too shabby.

He’ll never likely be a sub-4.00 pitcher and there will be some ugly games when he walks the entire team. However, his ERA should hover in the mid-4.00s and provide a bevy of Ks. In deep leagues, I’m all over that kind of production.

Edwin Encarnacion – Encarnacion, or E5, was a ninth round pick of the Texas Rangers in 2000. However, before he could get his feet wet, he was shipped, along with Ruben Mateo, to Cincinnati for a reliever named Rob Bell.

In 2002, at A ball, Encarnacion looked awesome: 17 HRs, and a .282/.338/.458 line – sure the plate discipline (108 Ks to just 40 walks) would hurt his average development, but that’s fine with that kind of power.

Throughout the minors, Encarnacion just hit for power and hit for a decent average. From 2003 – 2007, he never batted below .272 at any level and currently has a .278/.345/.425 at AA and .329/.396/.565 line at AAA.

He earned near fulltime duties with the Reds in 2006 and rewarded them for their foresight with a .276/.359/.473 and 15 homers in 117 games. He wasn’t swinging and missing a ton (8.7%), was posting a fine line drive rate (21.1%) and his strike out rate (16.7%) and walk rate (8.8%) weren’t detrimental. Add all those up and he was going to be a major league regular with fine power for years to come.

Or not…as he struggled immensely out of the gate in 2007. At the end of April, he was batting .221/.294/.260 and was sitting at .250/.327/.357 at the end of May. At that point he had just three dingers and he began to lose playing time to Ryan Freel to free up space in the outfield for a former Rays prospect named Josh Hamilton. E5 was sent down to the minors on May 9, but would return two weeks later. After he returned, Encarnacion went .307/.370/.476 with 15 HRs in 108 games.

With Hamilton traded, 2008 was clearly going to be the year for Encarnacion to solidify himself as a solid MLB regular. While he hit 25 bombs, he batted just .251/.340/.466 and committed an ungodly 23 errors. Encarnacion was striking out a tad more but was also walking a bit more. For some reason, though, he wasn’t hitting the ball with much authority. His FB rate spiked, perhaps as he was trying to jack everything that came to him. This hurt his BABIP and destroyed his ability to get on base.

After going .209/.333/.374 in 43 games for the Reds in 2009, they shipped him, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen. While E5 hit a few more homers for the Jays, he’d perform worse, stumbling to a .240/.306/.442 line.

His 2010 was little different – Encarnacion fielded poorly, hit some homers, but couldn’t get on base.

The following year seemed to be no different – at the end of June, 2011, he sat at .250/.283/.404. Encarnacion seemed finished. However, since that time he has gone .304/.388/.527 with nine homers in 50 games. He has struck out just 35 times and walked 23 times. While this is a small sample, it’s a huge step in the right direction if it can continue.

Encarnacion can hit .265-.280 the rest of the way with 5+ HRs. He’s good cheap power in a good deep lineup. Previously, I’ve wanted nothing to do with Encarnacion – I’m about to change my tune.

It turned out to be a darn good choice for Hochevar. In 2005, he set a school record for strikeouts, was named SEC player of the year and took home the prestigious Roger Clemens Award (given to the top D-I pitcher). For reasons unknown (wink), the award was discontinued in 2009 after only six years in existence. In addition to Hochevar, the other award winners are Jered Weaver, Andrew Miller, David Price and Aaron Crow.

Following his acclaimed college career, the Dodgers drafted Hochevar again, though this time in the first round (although 40th overall). As with so many other amateur players who are “advised” by Scott Boras, Hochevar’s negotiation with the Dodgers was long and contentious. At one point, Hochevar actually dumped Boras for another agent and accepted a $2.98 million signing bonus. The next day, however, Hochevar reunited with Boras and promptly reneged on the deal. Suffice it to say, nobody should have been surprised when the signing deadline passed and Hochevar was not a Dodger.

Hochevar re-entered the draft in 2006 and was selected first overall by Kansas City. The Royals showed him the money; Hochevar signed a four-year major league deal worth $5.3 million guaranteed, which included a $3.5 million signing bonus and additional incentives worth $1.7 million.

Hochevar began his professional career in 2007 (after being rated the #32 best prospect), pitching 152 innings between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he didn’t fare all that well at either level. In AA, he had a 4.69 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, but an incredibly impressive 3.62 K:BB rate. At AAA, he had a 5.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and less impressive 2.10 K:BB rate. Still, he was only 23.

In 2008, Hochevar, now the #63 best prospect, showed some impressive chops in AAA in the Pacific Coast League, a tough hitter’s league. He impressed the brass so much that he was promoted to the woeful major league squad. He didn’t get much of a welcome basket though, as he teammates gave him the lowest run support of any major league pitcher (2.8 runs per game). Still, it wasn’t entirely his teammate’s fault that he had a 6-12 record. He had a miserable 5.02 K/9 rate and an even more miserable 3.28 BB/9 rate, i.e. a 1.52 K:BB rate – that won’t cut it. His bullpen didn’t help much (62.3% strand rate) either.

Undeterred, the Royals continued to run him out there every fifth day in 2009. While his ERA was worse, the underlying numbers suggested Hochevar actually took a small step forward. He had a 6.67 K/9 rate, a 2.90 BB/9 rate and a 2.30 K:BB rate – something that could work on the major league level. He gave up a few more HRs than would seem logical, had a somewhat inflated BABIP (.321 compared to .300 for his career) and an even worse strand rate (59.3%) than in 2008.

Prior to 2010, the claim could be made that that Hochevar was improving, albeit incrementally. Well, if you look at his 2010 round numbers – 4.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP – it sure looks like the same ole crapola. However, he maintained a K:BB rate above 2.0 and his FIP was 3.93 (xFIP was 4.09) – certainly subtly positive signs.

Unfortunately, the incremental progress has stalled almost completely in 2011. His K/9 rate (5.12) is back in the sewer and his HRs are up. He has his first south-of-.300 BABIP, yet is wasting it completely.

I really thought, at this point, Hochevar would be an average MLB starter, someone in the Jeremy Guthrie mold who could do some nice things. While this belief has not come to fruition, it is still possible for him to take the necessary step forward.

Over his last 32.2 IPs and five starts, Hochevar has 26 Ks, a 3.58 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has walked just 10 batters. There is some momentum with Hochevar that I find appealing, especially in deep leagues where you have to gain some Ks from unlikely sources. (This was written before his latest start against the Boston Red Sox, which wasn’t great: 6 IPs, five ER, eight hits, three walks and four Ks. Still, going back to July 3, he has pitched 47.2 IPs with a 4.72 ERA and 37 Ks to 19 walks and he has the 30th most Ks over the last 30 days. )

He’s still barely a match-ups plays. However, if he keeps this up, he could be a nice bargain now and in 2012.  Plus, you get to say Hochevar, which I find fun. It reminds me of a fine cheese like manchego.

Mike Carp – If you don’t know the story of Mike Carp (for some reason I feel like I’m beginning the narration of Big Fish), well, sit a-spell. Also, how could you not know the ins and outs of the New York Mets 2004 ninth round draft pick? In 2005, and just 19 years old, Carp hit 19 bombs over 89 games in A ball. The following season, at the A+ level, he posted a .287/.379/.450 line and won the Sterling Award as the Mets organization player of the year.

Following this early success, Carp seemed destined to eventually win a job with the parent club. Unfortunately, he broke his finger in 2007 and stumbled to a .251/.337/.387 line in AA.

Repeating AA in 2008, and now 22, Carp returned to form: .299/.403/.471 – yep, a .400+ OBP and 17 HRs. He was on his way…to Seattle.

On December 11, 2008, Carp, as part of a three team deal, was sent to Seattle along with a few other guys including Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman for what amounted to J.J. Putz (the ghost of Jeremy Reed’s prospect was also involved).

Carp spent most of his time in AAA for the Mariners and looked good, going .271/.372/.446 with 15 HRs in 110 games. I know I had an eye on him when he made his major league debut, especially after he went .315/.415/.463 in his first 65 MLB plate appearances.

However, it wasn’t enough to get Carp full time duties in 2010 and he was sent back to AAA. Carp scuffled the entire season (though he showed some fantastic power), going .257/.328/.516 and notching just seven hits in 41 plate appearances in the Show. Of course, Carp, after posting BABIPs well over .300 the last previous seasons in minors, finished with just a .259 average on balls in play.

The bloom was definitely not off the rose yet. Carp came out blazing in 2011, hitting .347/.414/.653 in AAA with 21 HRs in just 66 games. He hasn’t stopped in the majors either: .325/.382/.517 with six homers in 40 games.

While I’ve been overwhelmingly positive about Carp, I must mention the gargantuan elephant in the room: his .410 BABIP. He does have an unprecedented 29.7% line drive rate, but he is swinging and missing a ton: 14.9% and striking out a fair bit: 24.2%. It’s only a matter of time before major league pitchers make the adjustment and give him the Delmon Young treatment (i.e., nothing good to hit). Still, the kid is capable of taking a pitch and should be able to handle that bump. Until that bump comes, however, you need to be starting him in most every league. He is that locked in. I haven’t been this excited since Kevin Bass went .244/.303/.336 for the Orioles in 1995, and then promptly retired.

Brandon McCarthy – About seven years ago, Brandon McCarthy was on his way to being better known than Andrew McCarthy. As a 20-year-old, splitting time between A, A+ and AAA, McCarthy, a former 17th round draft pick of the White Sox in 2002, posted a 3.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He struck out 202 batters in just 172 innings and walked only 30. He had a 6.73 K:BB rate.

Before 2005, McCarthy was rated the #49 prospect and looked good at AAA: 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 rate and 4.06 K:BB rate. He was brought up to the major league club, appeared in 12 games and started 10. If you looked at the cosmetics, his 4.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP certainly foretold greatness. However, he had a .249 BABIP, an 81.2% strand rate and only posted a 6.45 K/9 rate.

The White Sox didn’t want to stress the young hurler, so they kept him in the bullpen for most of 2006. His strikeout rates benefitted, but he walked more guys and didn’t resemble anything near a top 50 prospect – finishing with a 4.68 ERA, 5.30 FIP and 4.60 xFIP.

In the offseason, he was shipped to Texas for, predominantly, John Danks and Nick Masset – that one didn’t work out so well for Rangers.

McCarthy posted dismal K numbers during his first year with Texas and increased his walks, some of which might have been due to injury. After just 22 starts, the Rangers shut McCarthy down due to a stress fracture in his right shoulderblade.

McCarthy developed inflammation in his right elbow during Spring Training the next year and missed a sizeable chunk of the season. He pitched in the majors sparingly for Texas in 2009, but his time with the major league squad was done after that season. Overall, he pitched just 221 IPs with a 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.46 K:BB ratio for the big league club. He was worth barely one win above a replacement player during his tenure.

He did pitch 56 innings in the minors in 2010 for the Rangers. He looked good: 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 4.00 K:BB ratio. However he was granted free agency on November 5, 2010.

The Oakland Athletics made a play for McCarthy and signed him on December 14, 2010.

While battling chronic injuries, McCarthy has been a boon to a beleaguered Athletics rotation. He has taken the ball 18 times now, spread across 118 innings – the most he has pitched in the majors in any season. He has his same old pedestrian K-rate (5.87) but he has really cut down on his walks (just 1.37), giving himself a fantastic 4.28 K:BB rate. Apparently pitching in a more forgiving ballpark has given McCarthy the confidence to just throw strikes.

While his strand rate is a little generous (63.7%), it is mostly due to a stellar bullpen and a lack of homeruns – two things that seem to be constants for the A’s. His ERA (3.74), FIP (2.82) and xFIP (3.39) all paint a rosy picture for the one-time stud.

McCarthy, just recently 28, is a nice pitcher who can help control your ratios down the stretch. He’s a prefect compliment to someone like Bud Norris or Ryan Dempster, who bring the Ks, but also the high ratios. He is only 19% owned, so go out and get him for the stretch run.

The following year he played entirely at AA ball. He was 21, but didn’t flash a ton of promise (.258/.330/.393). He also hit only nine homers and stole only six bases. What’s worse, he was caught stealing 11 times.

Not surprisingly, the Mariners made Guzman repeat AA in 2006. Now 22, he had to get his mojo going. Unfortunately, 2006 looked a lot like 2005: .257/.335/.382 with nine homers and seven steals (albeit he was only caught three times).
At 23, Guzman was going backward, as the Mariners kept him at A+ ball for the duration of 2007. He played well, but, at that age and repeating such a low level, the success was almost meaningless. On October 29, 2007, he was granted free agency.

He wouldn’t be a fish out of water for long, as Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics scooped him up on November 16. He spent the majority of his time at AA for the Athletics and played quite well: .364/.419/.560 with 14 homers. After 80 games at AA, the A’s promoted him to AAA, where things stalled out once again: .237/.281/.373.

Guzman again found himself a free agent on November 3, 2008. However, he wouldn’t wait long, as he signed a contract with the team across the bay just 15 days later. Guzman destroyed the ball in Spring Training for the Giants and showed much prowess as a 25-year-old in the Pacific Coast League (.321/.379/.507). He earned a quick cup of coffee with the Giants but didn’t do anything outstanding in just 20 plate appearances.

Unfortunately for Guzman, the Giants brought in a slew of veterans to clog the corners and he spent the entirety of 2010 in AAA (where he looked pretty good: .321/.376/.510).

Before 2011, with Brandon Belt on the way and Aubrey Huff inked to a two-year deal, Guzman was again granted free agency. But the Padres waited just 14 days to sign Guzman. If you are scoring at home, during his migration down the coast, Guzman never spent more than 18 days as a free agent after signing with the Mariners as a 16-year-old.

With Adrian Gonzalez gone and a couple of corner prospects in Kyle Blanks and Anthony Rizzo that were likely a bit away from the majors, the Padres started Guzman off in AAA in the Pacific Coast League. While it is a notorious hitter’s haven, you can’t doubt the success Guzman had: .332/.423/.529 with eight homers in 63 games.

Sure, he was repeating the league and he is now 27 years old, but dude could rake and deserved a shot. Well, on June 17, at Minnesota of all places, Guzman got the start. He went 2-4, but wouldn’t get full time duties for some time. However, by the end of June, in 30 plate appearances, Guzman had a .310/.333/.552 line.

Still splitting time throughout July, Guzman got better: going .345/.400/.636 in 60 plate appearances. And he hasn’t slowed down in August, getting a hit in 10 of 11 games he has appeared in.

I love the Jesus Guzman story. I love that I own him in a bunch of deep leagues and you should too. While he likely won’t maintain his .371 BABIP, his 20.9% line drive rate and 12.5% HR/FB rate aren’t flukes. He swings and misses a good chunk and doesn’t walk a lot, but his power is real and sustainable. I see no reason why he can’t finish with an average around .325, a sweet .355 OBP, and a nice .510 slugging percentage. At least five more homers seem like money in the bank. Buy the Guzman stats and buy the story, grab him now.

Dexter Fowler – Fowler, born four years and nine days after me, was a 14th round selection in the 2004 draft. He’d appear in 62 games in rookie ball in 2005 and look decent enough (.273/.357/.409) to earn a promotion the following season to A ball.

And Fowler shined (.296/.373/.462) with 43 steals albeit in 66 attempts (not the best success rate). Still, going into the following year, 2007, Fowler was rated the #48 best prospect.  Unfortunately, Fowler suffered injuries to his right hand and appeared in just 65 games at A+ ball. He looked good, but took a step back to #74 in the prospect rankings.

However, that didn’t stop the Rockies from promoting him the following season. In 2008, in his first taste of AA, Fowler went .335/.431/.515 and earned his first espresso in the majors. He made his debut the same day he earned his call up and pinch ran in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Giants. Unfortunately, he was picked off first base.

Still, going into 2009, he was ranked the #15 best prospect and spent the majority of the season in the majors going .266/.363/.406 with 27 steals in 37 attempts. He posted a reasonable walk rate (12.9%) but his .351 BABIP was a tad dangerous (even though it was paired with a 21% line drive rate).

Clearly, it seemed like the groundwork was laid for a 2010 season full of stolen bases. Unfortunately, his walk rate dipped, his ground balls increased, his BABIP fell to .328 and his OBP dropped to .347. This resulted in just 13 steals in 21 attempts – a horrible ratio for a no-power guy.

Going into 2011, Fowler was an afterthought in a crowded and star-studded Rockies lineup. However, he has generated a .265/.366/.401 line (eerily similar to 2009). But if you check underneath the hood, while his line drive rate has increased slightly over the past two years, he is striking out more and his BABIP is .377. What’s worse, Fowler is just 8/16 in stolen base attempts.

Still, there is room for optimism. Over the last 30 days, Fowler has gone 30/92 with six steals and a .426 OBP. Sure, his BABIP over the last 28 days is .448, but you have to have skills to do that. Fowler is someone to keep an eye on down the stretch. If he can keep hitting line drives and figures out a way to steal successfully, Fowler could be a decent boon to your steals. In addition, I’d take this as an audition for your 2012 fantasy squad. I believe in Fowler long-term.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I’m about to tell you something I bet you didn’t know. Salty has the longest last name in the illustrious history of Major League Baseball. The inability to spell/pronounce his surname didn’t hinder his draft potential, as he was a first round selection by the Atlanta Braves in 2003, right out of high school.

He did some nice things, especially for a catcher, in his first two minor league seasons in rookie and A ball. However, he truly burst onto the scene in 2005, going .314/.394/.519 in A+ ball. Before 2006, he was the #18 ranked prospect. While he slipped a little in 2006 (hitting just .230/.353/.380) at AA, he was just 21 and, my oh my, look at that on base percentage – that’s tops.

Before 2007, he was the #36 ranked prospect. He said the hell with that ranking, I deserve a top slot. He murdered AA: .309/.404/.617 in 22 games. He earned his way onto a contending Braves team, where he would exhibit some chops: .284/.333/.411 in 47 games. He was 22 and a catcher. No wonder the Rangers coveted him (not to mention Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison). On July 31, he’d be traded along with the aforementioned trio to the Texas Rangers for Mark Texeira and Ron Mahay.

As an aside, that trade almost looks as bad as the Glenn Davis for Steve Finley-Curt Schilling-Pete Harnisch swap the Orioles did. It’s amazing that the Braves had enough minor league talent to not even skip a beat (for the most part) after that.

Back to Salty – he wouldn’t perform quite as well with the Rangers (.251/.290/.431) but his power increased and he finished with an impressive .266/.310/.422. We had our next Mike Piazza. Well, there’s a reason Mike Piazza has few equals. Salty would struggle with injuries and inconsistency in 2008, playing just 61 games in the majors. He finished with a .253/.352/.364 line, which isn’t horrible, but was aided by a .385 BABIP. The lack of power and skyrocketing K-rate (it was 32.3%) were definitely disconcerting.

Unfortunately, Salty continued his downward spiral in 2009. His walk rate plummeted, his Ks maintained and his BABIP normalized, resulting in a .223/.290/.371 line in 84 games. While his isolated power moved back toward his respectable 2007 number, he hit fewer line drives and fly balls and more ground balls – not a recipe for success when you run like a catcher and play in a hitter’s park.

Then, just two games into the 2010 season, Salty was put on the DL. When he was ready to come off, he found himself completely lost and in AAA. He struggled with the bat and with his throws back to the pitcher. The Red Sox swooped in with some cash and a few prospects and scooped Salty off the Rangers’ hands.  Salty did nothing for the Red Sox in 2010 and it appeared Salty’s star had fizzled completely, especially after a rough start to 2011.

However, he has turned things around in Boston. After 266 plate appearances, he has a 28.8% K-rate (which is a huge improvement) and has traded ground balls for fly balls – a smart thing to do in Fenway Park. While his walk rate hasn’t gotten to the double digit promise that seemed all but certain a few years ago, his .317 OBP is nothing to sneeze at from a 26-year-old catcher with a .209 ISO and .462 slugging percentage.

There is absolutely nothing crazy about Salty’s season. It will likely be the building block to a long and successful career. However, there is one underlying problem with Salty’s career today: his splits. He owns a career .274/.343/.447 line against righties but a .209/.268/.334 line against lefties. He hasn’t been much better this year.

Still, the Red Sox are smart enough to ensure he sees most of his at bats against righties. As long as Salty continues to take advantage of his home ball park and takes a few small steps in his pitch recognition, he could be a prime backstop for the next several years. If we’re looking at the rest of the season, I could see him being a top 5-7 option down the stretch. Certainly, McCann, Mauer, Napoli, Martinez (although look at his splits), and Carlos Santana will be in the mix as well.

1. How well have they pitched in their last two games? – I don’t need a huge sample size here.  I don’t need an under 2 ERA.  I’m just looking to avoid a guy who is going to kill me.  If a guy has been rocked for the last two games, he’s a pass.  If a guy was rocked two starts ago, then pitched well in last start, he’s a possibility depending on how well he passes the next tests.

2. Is he going against a team that is struggling? – The Astros, M’s, Padres, Pirates or Giants hitters can make an All-Star pitcher out of Whitey Ford.  And Whitey Ford is 107 years old.

3. Is he pitching in a pitcher’s park? – As I said in the opening, a lot of this has nothing to do with the pitcher.  I wasn’t lying.  Joe Saunders is crizzap.  Joe Saunders in Petco is crizzap with a chance for an okay game.

4. How’s the other team against a certain side? – This usually only applies to lefties, because if a team is bad against righties then they’re just bad.  The White Sox, for instance, are not good vs. lefties.  Thanks, Dunn!

5. Can he give you something else you might need? – This is pretty much only for H2H.  Even if the pitcher gets rocked, will he get me some Ks?  Should his team win even if he’ll probably give up 4+ runs?  These are team specific questions.  Can you forfeit certain categories while hoping for other ones?  Can you take getting tied to the WHIPping post while being bludgeoned with the ERA stick?  Can you make love out of nothing at all?

He took his talents to Stanford, where he continued his success (Stanford made the championship game in 2003) with new teammates Sam Fuld and Jed Lowrie. He finished his career at Stanford with a .350 average, 35 bombs, 170 RBIs, and 26 SBs in just 199 games. Oh and he married an All-American track runner.

The Diamondbacks selected Quentin with the 29th pick in the 2003 draft. Unfortunately, he had to sit out 2003 because of Tommy John surgery – a slight non-Lance Harbor type of injury. In 2004, he came back with a vengeance, destroying minor league pitching to the tune of a .332/.435/.549 line.

He easily earned the promotion to AAA the following season and again excelled: .301/.422/.522. Before 2006, he was named the 20th best prospect throughout the minor leagues.

He was quickly promoted to the majors in 2006, and hit a homer in his third major league at bat. In 191 MLB plate appearances that year, he held his own with a .253/.342/.530 line with nine homers.

After that, unfortunately, is where things began to unravel. Quentin partially tore his labrum in Spring Training the next year, delaying his season debut to mid-April. He struggled early and was demoted to AAA on July 6.

Back amongst the boys, this man returned to his dominating self. Quentin looked prime for a rebound in 2008. However, the Diamondbacks thought otherwise and shipped him to Chicago for Chris Carter (then a low A first baseman at the top of the Sox prospect list). Carter was then packaged with a few other familiar names (Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and others) and sent to Oakland for Dan Haren.

While the Sox had not had the best track record in deals with the Diamondbacks of late, this was a clear win. Fully healthy, Quentin stormed out of the gates and put together a sterling final line: .288/.394/.571 and 36 HRs. These numbers could have been even better if Quentin had not hurt himself by slamming his bat in anger on September 5. The injury was severe enough to require surgery, and thereby end Quentin’s season prematurely.

Healthy, Quentin started well in 2009, but then began to suffer from plantar fasciitis and soon found himself on the DL finishing with a rocky and unimpressive season.

The next season wasn’t much different. Quentin was mostly healthy, but incredibly streaky. While playing poor defense, he finished with a .243/.342/.479 line.

At this point, he looked like a source for decent power but not much else. However, when looking deeper, he did have a poor (by his standards) .241 BABIP that season, which could have caused some of the horrid average. Of course, he just wasn’t hitting the ball with authority. His line drive rate was a putrid 13.9% (the lowest of his career) and he was swinging and missing more than he had previously with the White Sox. That said, his ground ball rate didn’t really spike and his HR/FB rate was still hovering around a perfectly normal 14%. It wouldn’t be hard to paint 2010 as somewhat flukey in the wrong direction.

Sure enough, in 2011, Quentin’s BABIP is .268, his average is a serviceable .261 and he has hit 20 HRs. Quentin is an elite power source. He is capable of pacing 35 HRs and maintaining a non-lethal average.

Cameron Maybin – He was(is) the next Ken Griffey, Jr. – at least according to some of his early managers. And, early on, this didn’t appear to be an offensive exaggeration. As a high school player in 2004, Maybin was the Connie Mack World Series MVP, won that tournament’s batting title, and was voted the 2004 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year.

He entered the MLB draft after high school and was selected 10th overall by the Detroit Tigers in 2005. In A ball, at just 19-years-old, Maybin was a force: .304/.387/.457 with nine HRs and 27 steals. Sure, he struck out 116 times in 445 plate appearances, but he was young, he was Nuke Laloosh.

He followed his 2006 minor league destruction campaign with an equally impressive 2007 season. Spread across Rookie, A+ and AA ball, Maybin hit .316/.409/.523 – what’s more, he limited his Ks and increased his walks.

Numbers like this are hard to ignore; Maybin quickly earned an espresso in the majors. While his final line was unimpressive (.143/.208/.265) with 21 Ks and just three walks, the talent was there. In his second game for the Tigers, Maybin got his first hit (a single), homer, and stolen base. The hits came off Roger Clemens, who promptly plunked him in after his homer.

That offseason, he was the sixth ranked prospect and one of the major pieces the Tigers used to acquire Miguel Cabrera and his attendant baggage (Dontrelle Willis). The Marlins put Maybin in AA, where he was okay (.277/.375/.456), but not great (124 Ks and only 60 walks).

In 2009, the Marlins started him in centerfield on opening day. However, he struggled a bit and was demoted to AAA. He succeeded immensely there (.319/.399/.463 with just 58 Ks to 38 walks in 343 plate appearances) and rejoined the Marlins later in the season. Ultimately, he accumulated 199 MLB plate appearances in which he showed promise (.250/.318/.409) with 51 Ks and 17 walks.

He again would scuffle in the majors and dominate minor league pitching in 2010. Throughout his minor league career, Maybin deservedly earned an amazing amount of honors:

•    Twice an All-Star Futures Game selection
•    Arizona Fall League Rising Stars
•    Southern League Mid-Season All-Star
•    Baseball America High Class A All-Star
•    Florida State League Postseason All-Star
•    Florida State League Mid-Season All-Star
•    Baseball America Low Class A All-Star
•    Midwest League Prospect of the Year

Not enough for the Marlins, who apparently though they had a better centerfielder in the organization, the organization dealt Maybin to San Diego for a couple of relievers in the offseason. For the Padres, Maybin has maintained his walk rate north of 7% and cut down on his Ks. While that is important, his BABIP is high (.353), given no change in his contact and line drive rates.

Still, Maybin is just 24 years old and on his way to putting up a .272/.329/.410 line with double digits homers and 37-40 steals. He’ll be good for several wins above a replacement player and could be a breakout player next season. Currently he’s a better real life player than fantasy, but he should help with steals down the stretch, which makes him a nice subtle move in keeper/dynasty leagues.

I’m a major believer in Maybin long-term as an Ellsbury-lite.

Emilio Bonifacio – At just 16, Bonifacio was signed by Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001. He’d make his debut two years later and hit quite poorly in A ball (.199/.298/.219).

The following season, again at A ball, Bonifacio showed a little more promise (.260/.306/.319) with 122 Ks against just 25 walks. He repeated the level the following season and acquitted himself well. By cutting down on his Ks and increasing his walks, Bonifacio was able to post a .270/.341/.330 line with 55 steals.

In 2006 he started at A+ and took off: .321/.375/.449 with 61 steals and 104 Ks against 44 walks.  The following year, at AA, Bonifacio began to look like a future major leaguer: .285/.333/.352 with 41 steals. In fact, these numbers earned him his first cup of coffee later that season, appearing in 11 games for the Diamondbacks, though not doing anything of positive note.

Bonifacio returned to Tucson the following year and continued to play well (.302/.348/.387). So well, in fact, that the Diamondbacks dealt him to the Washington Nationals for Jon Rauch later that season. Bonifacio continued to play well for the Nationals AAA club (.452/.500/.516) in the eight games after the trade and was quickly called up. He didn’t do much for the Nats in the majors, but didn’t look completely lost out there either (.248/.305/.344).

The Nats parlayed Bonifacio’s potential into Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen before the 2009 season. The Marlins installed Bonifacio as their everyday third baseman that year and he started off with a bang by hitting an inside the park homer on Opening Day. While his first month created quite a stir, his season ended up rather pedestrian (.252/.303/.308 with 21 steals in 30 chances).

The following season, he split time between the majors and minors and didn’t do anything particularly special (aside from going a perfect 12/12 in SB attempts).

Still, going into 2011, he was just 26 and the Marlins envisioned him as a sort of super utility guy. Indeed, he has played everywhere, and has looked quite good (.297/.373/.381 with 23 steals in 27 attempts). He is also 37 for his last 96 with 26 runs and 18 steals in that stretch. Of course, he also has a ridiculous .478 BABIP over the last 28 days.

While Bonifacio has typically had a highish BABIP throughout his career, his .375 mark this season is a bit otherworldly given his contact and line drive rates. Bonifacio is not a complete mirage; he has increased his walk rate and cut down on his Ks. So, Bonifacio remains a fine player, capable of hitting .275 with 35-40 steals. Obviously, his recent hot streak is a nice thing to ride, but think of him more as a middling average player, with no pop, who can steal a decent amount of bases. Basically, he’s a Juan Pierre-lite (you know back when Juan Pierre was sort of good at baseball).

1. Playing time – There’s nothing worse than picking up a hitter for one day and he doesn’t play. I usually sort by ABs for the last week to make sure the top free agents are playing. If there’s even a chance they might not play, I usually look elsewhere.

2. Is the guy currently hitting? – Hitters tend to do what they should do over the course of a season, but from day to day and week to week guys go in and out of slumps. If you’re picking up a guy for only one day, you want a guy that is hitting. If he’s in a 0-for-45 slump, you’re probably better taking an 0-for-0 and going to grab a bite to eat at Whataburger. To pinpoint guys that are hitting, I sort by hits in the last week. There’s usually overlap between guys who are getting playing time. Otherwise, their managers should be fired.  I can think of a few.

3. Righty/Lefty Splits – If a guy is hitting well over the last week but is going against his notoriously weaker side, he’s a pass. This usually goes for lefties facing lefties. Righties that are going against righties don’t give me as much pause, unless we’re talking about Matt Diaz. Speaking of which, if a guy is going against a side he absolutely kills then he’s almost an automatic start since I assume his manager will start him too.

4. Hitter/Pitcher Matchups – This is a continuation of the splits. If a guy hits a particular pitcher very well, he’s a go. Contrary to the above splits though, if a guy is hitting well and hasn’t hit a particular pitcher well, he could still be a go if all else fails.

5. The Park and Team Factor – The last thing I look at is where they’ll be playing. If it’s between two guys and one’s at Coors and one’s at Petco, I obviously choose Colorado. If a player’s team is currently hitting well then I’ll go with him over a guy whose team is struggling. The thinking is he’ll at least have some chances for RBIs and Runs.

These are in order of importance. If a player doesn’t meet the first criteria, he’s eliminated. If you get, say, ten guys who meet the first criteria, then you keep moving down the list until you only have one guy left. If you still have a few choices by the end, then you draw whiskers on your face and find yourself a clowder of strays.

If you have a sizable lead anywhere, strengthen weak spots.  For instance, you have a 15 save lead over your nearest competitor, but a 25 save lead over the pack.  You see a trade partner for your Mariano, but they’re only willing to give you Carlos Quentin.  You try to convince yourself to do the trade, but decide Mariano is worth more.  So in the end you fall 5 homers short of 1st place, but you’re 35 saves up on everyone.  A Mariano in the hand is not worth two points in the standings.  In one year leagues, now is not the time to be worrying about the intrinsic value of a player.  Only worry about their value to your team.

Excess saves – chuck ‘em for what you need.  Have Bourn, Rajai and Gardner — well, I’m not sure how you’re even competing — but trade them for some power.  Recently, we traded Pence for Bourn in one league because we really needed steals.  Would I have done that trade in March?  Nah, no way, nuh-uh.  But now?  Absolutely had to, or pray Pence steals 25 bases in the 2nd half.  You need to start acting now.  There’s no time like the present… The present is a gift… Sleep with scratchy rear, wake with smelly finger… Fill in your own cliché.  Just git r done!

Stauffer started out well, dominating A+, AA and AAA (168 IPs, 2.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9). While the strikeout totals were a bit low, there was definitely promise there.

Sure enough, next year, entirely at AAA, the Ks came back in a big way. He posted a 7.6 K/9 rate to match a darn impressive walk rate (2 BB/9). Unfortunately, that sterling performance didn’t translate well to the “important” columns as Stauffer posted a 5.14 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Still, he got the call in the summer of 2005, though he pitched poorly in 81 MLB innings.

The next season (2006) Stauffer was stationed mostly in AAA, where he saw his strikeouts dwindle and his walks increase. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness throughout most of the season and get just one start in the majors.

Then he lost the entire 2008 season to injury.

He returned to AAA in 2009 and fared pretty well in a small amount of innings (42). His walk rate was below two and he posted a 3.5 K:BB rate, which would play anywhere. The Padres recognized this and recalled him to San Diego, giving him his first real taste of the big leagues since 2005. Unfortunately, he was unable to replicate his AAA success over 14 starts for the parent club. While the ERA was shiny (3.58), his 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 rate and 1.56 K:BB rate were horrid.

Still, he got another opportunity in 2010, albeit mostly in relief. He excelled, tempting the Padres to make him a full-time starter, which they did in 2011.

So far, he is making management look good, posting a 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.15 K/9 rate and 2.09 BB/9 rate. There isn’t a ton of flukiness in his numbers either. The strand rate is a little on the high side and the home run rate is a little below 10% (just the benefits of playing in Petco). He is giving up a lot more line drives than last year, but he’s also pitching more and getting more swinging strikes.

There’s no real mirage here. Stauffer is a solid pitcher, capable of maintaining his K-rate and most of his peripherals. I don’t see him finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA, but it won’t be above 3.40. If you scooped him up when your leaguemate dropped him after initial struggles, feel free to send a taunting email, text Facebook poke, tweet, or DM.

Melky Cabrera – I can’t find the link, so I might be wrong, but the great (and I’m not being sarcastic) Rob Neyer once included Melky as one of the best building blocks in all of the majors. It wasn’t without reason.

Melk Man or Leche got off to a strong start in his career. He was signed at 17 and debuted in A- ball at 18. He went .283/.345/.355. While his power was lacking, there was no ignoring his ability to get on base.

While he didn’t raise his walk rate the following season at A+ and A-, he did post an impressive .304/.355/.446 line at only 19 – numbers that would play for most centerfielders.

Just three years after signing, and only 20 years old, Melky got his first taste of AAA. He didn’t fare so well (.248/.309/.366) but that didn’t dissuade the Yankees from bringing him up. Unfortunately, things didn’t go so well in his initial MLB experience (.211/.211/.211).

So, he was returned to AAA in 2006, though for only a short stay (31 games). After torching the ball (.385/.430/.566), the 21-year-old got the call and it looked like he’d never ride a bus in the minors again. In the majors, Melky posted a .280/.360/.391 line in 524 plate appearances.

In 2007, he hit a lot of ground balls, and his numbers dipped accordingly (.273/.327/.391).  Still though, there was plenty of promise surrounding this 22-year-old centerfielder.

Unfortunately, Melky hit even more ground balls in 2007 and his numbers dipped considerably: .249/.301/.341.

Melky was briefly demoted to the minors that year, where he performed incredibly well. But there was no doubt about it, the Leche was tainted.

Still, he bounced back to play pretty well in 2009 (.274/.336/.416), but Brett Gardner made him expendable and the Yankees shipped him to Atlanta for that Javy Vazquez guy. Talk about everyone losing a trade.

He performed poorly for the Braves and was released. But since he was once a Brave and once good (hello Jeff Francoeur), the Royals decided to sign him. It made no sense at the time. Of course we forgot that you can be crazy like a fox instead of just plain ol’ crazy. The Melk Man has been fantastic this year (.286/.323/.451) with 2.7 WAR (that’s astounding). He is already in double digits for both homers and steals. The only real bizarre thing he is doing is hitting the ball with authority. He’s posting a 10.7% HR/FB rate, which is somewhat out of whack with his career (although he did post a similar rate in 2009).

Melky should wind up with at least 17 homers and steals, with an easy outside shot at 20+ in each category. I’m more inclined to bet on the 20+ steals, but who knows if the power will continue. He’s a better real life value, but if you’re rolling him out there, no reason his current pace can’t continue. I’m shocked.

By the way, Melky is the 38^th ranked player in 5×5 roto. Wowsers.

Asdrubal Cabrera – What a whackadoodle career Cabrera has had so far. He is the first person named Asdrubal to appear in the ALCS and was the 14^th player to turn an unassisted triple play.

In 2002, at 17, Cabrera was signed by the Mariners. About two years later, he debuted and played pretty well in low ball. In 2005, he played quite well at A and A+ ball, though he didn’t thrive in 25 PAs in AAA.

He struggled the following season for Tacoma (the Mariners’ AAA affiliate) and was traded to the Indians for Eduardo Perez. He didn’t play much better at Buffalo, but there was promise in the .263/.295/.337 line.

Still, the Indians decided to start the 21-year-old at AA the following year. He played exceptional: .310/.383/.454 and earned a promotion to AAA. This time he maintained his pace and earned a quick call to the majors. He looked like a star in the making in his initial major league stint, going .283/.354/.421 in 186 plate appearances.

However, he stumbled the following season, going just .259/.346/.366 – still impressive numbers from a 22-year-old middle infielder.

Finally, in 2009, at just 23, it looked like he put it all together: spinning a .308/.361/.438 masterpiece.

2010 appeared to be a breakout season for Cabrera; unfortunately, he was unhealthy throughout the season and not as effective as 2009. Going into 2011, Cabrera was largely an afterthought, yet he is by far the best healthy shortstop out there. At the break, he has 14 bombs, 12 steals and a .293/.347/.489 line.

He isn’t much different from the 2008-2009 versions. The line drive, fly ball and ground ball rates are right in line. Of course, his HR/FB rate is 13.7%, almost double his previous career high (6.7% in 2008). A 20/20 season is a foregone conclusion at this point. I do think we’ve seen the best half of his career for maybe a year or so. However, 7-9 more HRs and 10 more SBs seem certainly possible.

Unless Tulo gets hot, Cabrera could end up the #1 SS in all of the land.

Morse was a third round selection by the Chicago White Sox in 2000. He wouldn’t do anything overly impressive (unless you count getting slapped on the wrist with a 10-game suspension for using PEDs) until 2004, when he was 22 years old and split time between Seattle’s and Chicago’s AA affiliate.

Combined, he hit .281/.332/.505 with 17 HRs in just under 400 plate appearances. He had done so well for the White Sox that he was a somewhat major part of the Ben Davis/Freddy Garcia trade, which saw the White Sox part with Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Poor Jeremy Reed…

Morse began 2005 with the Mariners in AAA playing shortstop but his numbers fell off a cliff (.253/.317/.407). However, he made his major league debut and impressed (sort of), going .278/.347/.370 in 258 plate appearances (he did have a .341 BABIP).

The following year, he was again unsuccessful at AAA but surprisingly successful in the majors (.372/.396/.488), albeit in just 48 plate appearances. Unfortunately, his breakout was cut short by knee surgery on July 6.

He saw limited action in 2007 but tore the cover off the ball in spring training in 2008. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, as five games into the season, Morse tore his labrum. He wouldn’t play in the majors for the Mariners again, as they traded him for Ryan Langerhans in 2009.

For his new team, the Nationals, he flashed a little power promise in a small sample at the major league level after mashing AAA for the first time in his career. Then, he took off at the end of 2010 and has continued mashing in 2011.  Over the last two seasons, in 552 plate appearances, Morse has gone .297/.353/.538 with a 162-game average of 29 homers. Right now, ZiPS (U) has him pegged for just eight more bombs, however I don’t see why he can’t double his total and come close to 30. The only thing holding Morse back is health. I don’t see him as much different than David Ortiz from here on out.

Ryan Vogelsong – The Giants made Vogelsong a fifth round draft pick in 1998. Yes, way back then.  He would show some promise in low ball as a 20- and 21-year-old; however would find times difficult in AA.

In his first stint at Shreveport, in just 28.1 IPs, he had a 1.94 WHIP and allowed 12.7 hits per nine innings and 4.8 BB/9. The following year in 155 IPs, he wasn’t much better (1.43 WHIP, 8.9 H/9 and 4 BB/9). However, throughout his early career, he did show the ability to strike batters out.

That didn’t stop the Giants from promoting him in 2001 to AAA, as a seasoned 23-year-old. It looked like the move paid off, as Vogelsong pitched some darn good innings (0.91 WHIP, 5.4 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9). He performed so well that he was part of the Jason Schmidt trade – along with Armando Rios, he was sent to Pittsburgh for Schmidt and John Vander Wal.

He didn’t pitch quit as well in AAA for the Pirates, but still did good things. He would start two games in the majors for the Pirates and perform horribly, but it was just six innings and then he needed Tommy John surgery.  Unfortunately, he wouldn’t get that taste of Pittsburgh for another year as he spent all of 2002 in the minors, not pitching particularly well while he was recovering.  Finally, all the way back from surgery, Vogelsong spent all of 2004 in the majors. He appeared in 31 games, 26 as a starter, and allowed 10 hits per nine IPs, 4.5 BB/9 and only struck out 6.2 batters per nine.

That was it for him as a starter for the Pirates. He’d appear in 64 games over the next two seasons and not exhibit much promise.  After 2006, he played in Japan for three years and came back stateside in 2010 to pitch poorly for the Angels and Phillies in AAA.  Then the Giants signed him in 2011. He pitched incredibly well in just 11.1 AAA innings, and with a little luck, got the call. Since then he has done nothing but be exceptional: 2.67 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, i.e. a 2.74 K:BB rate. He has allowed only 66 hits in 77.2 IPs.  Sure, he’s been the benefit of some good bounces (83.1% strand rate and .262 BABIP), but he has allowed only a 17.8% line drive rate and is racking up the ground balls (45.2%).

You can flip a coin between his performance and Chris Carpenter rest of the way. I’ll take Vogelsong, as a final line will look a lot like: 3.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.30 K/9. What a story.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Remember way back to 2010 when some fantasy baseball writers thought Ellsbury was easily a top 10 performer? You don’t? Was your memory erased by his putrid .192/.241/.244 line with just seven steals?

While a lot of that had to do with a crippling early injury, Ellsbury was a bit of a black sheep heading into 2011. I wanted to like him, I just didn’t want to be ridiculed again.  Well, I do own him everywhere – I really thought his sixth round price tag was a steal. He now sits with a .296/.357/.450 line with nine homers and 25 steals. Carl Crawford, eat your heart out.

Realistically, what I saw in Ellsbury pre-2010 was the ability to put up prolific SB numbers while profiling to add high teens HRs. I see virtually nothing to suggest his career year will not continue for years to come. He could push 20 HRs and 50 SBs, he’ll likely fall short of both, but when we think about “this year’s Carlos Gonzalez” it has to be Jacoby Ellsbury.

Ian Kennedy – Unlike most ball players, things started out rosy for Kennedy, the 21st overall pick in 2006. He acquitted himself quite well in his first season in the minors in 2007: 1.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.6 H/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 10 K/9 across A, AA and AAA ball. In 34.2 innings at AAA, he struck out 34 batters and walked just 11.  He earned the call to the major league squad and pitched a darn impressive 19 innings, including winning his major league debut.

Unfortunately, baseball is never that kind. His beginning to 2008 in the majors went horrible. After his start on May 27, he had a 7.41 ERA and was placed on the DL. After coming off the DL, he was dispatched to the minor leagues, where he again dominated.

Then, at the beginning of the 2009 season, Kennedy was diagnosed with an aneurysm under his right armpit (gross) and had surgery in May. Between the majors and minors, he’d get just 23 innings in. Then, in December, he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his 310.2 IPs for the DBacks, Kennedy has a 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 7.5 H/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 rates. After allowing a .256 average on balls in play last year, Kennedy is at it again with a .264 mark this year.

While his line drive rate is slightly elevated this year, his ground ball rate has gone up with it and his walk rate has gone down. I don’t think he’ll flirt with a sub-3.00 ERA all year, but he should sit comfortable around 3.25 with a very palatable WHIP and at least 70 more Ks.

The Bad

Jonathan Lucroy – Has only thrown out 6 baserunners out of 33.  And he doesn’t even get to try and throw out Prince Fielder.  “Pretend 2nd base is a vegan muffin…Now run!”

John Jaso – 7 caught out of 35.  And John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt doesn’t have to try and throw out Upton.

Rod Barajas – He’s pretty tizzerrible, but Dioner, his backup, is less so.  And less Jaso, for that matter.

A.J. Pierzynski – The most runners have tried to go on A.J. outside of McCann.  From my two years in Kenya, I can tell you runners are total gossipers and they probably talk about how you can run on A.J.

Josh Thole – This post is an asset for short schedule days when you pick up a guy for one day to try and score a steal.  Thole, like Barajas, makes that hard because his backup is good at throwing out runners.

Jason Varitek/Jarrod Saltymochachino – The above comment for Thole doesn’t hold weight with this dynamic duo.  You, eating the Cheetos and scratching your underarm?  You could steal on these two.

Eli Whiteside – Eli doesn’t like to catch people stealing.  He likes to guilt them into not doing it.

The Good

Lou Marson – 13 caught, 14 allowed.  While Carlos Santana isn’t smooth at throwing out runners, you do not run on Lou Marson.  His last name anagrams to No Arms, but that shizz is a misnomer.

Ivan Rodriguez – 9 caught, 10 allowed.  Hey, maybe Boras can get him another $5 million now.

Wilson Ramos – Though Boras will have to try with another team, because Ramos is just as nasty — 12 caught, only 16 allowed.

Matt Wieters – 18-for-46.  Too bad that’s never his batting line over a week.

Lind has destroyed pitching throughout his minor league career (he batted under .300 once (.299 in just 190 plate appearances in 2007). His career minor league line is .320/.382/.512. His career AAA numbers are even better (.333/.406/.525). It is not hard, therefore, to understand why he was always a highly touted prospect.

After dominating AAA in his first promotion, the Jays gave him a cup of coffee at the end of 2006. He didn’t disappoint (.367/.415/.600) in 65 plate appearances. He did have 12 Ks to just five walks, but there was significant cause for optimism.

Of course progression in baseball is rarely linear. What goes up often comes down. In his first extended taste of major league pitching in 2007, Lind hit just .238/.278/.400, struggling mightily against lefties (.194/.243/.299). Lind was demoted back to Syracuse in July, where he proceeded to destroy minor league pitching.

The following season, Lind flashed a little promise by hitting .282/.316/.439. That OBP, however, simply does not play for a DH masquerading as a corner outfielder/first baseman. Lind was, it seemed, destined to be a AAAA player – a guy with tremendous AAA ability who just can’t handle the Bigs.

And then 2009 happened. Over the course of the season, Lind hit .305/.370/.562 and he smacked the ball around the yard prodigiously (35 HRs and 46 doubles). He also showed tremendous improvement against lefties (.275/.318/.461). From a fantasy perspective, these numbers appeared trustworthy. While his HR/FB rate was a tad unsustainable, that merely meant he was more of a 28-30 HR guy than 35 HR guy.

Then, as the rock stars say, the bottom fell out. Lind’s 2010 season was, without a doubt, the worst of his career: .237/.287/.425 as he again struggled against lefties (.117/.159/.182). Still, he suffered some bad luck as his BABIP was somewhat in the dumps and his HR/FB rate went way back to pre-2009 rates.

However, the real culprit was a regression in his approach. After getting his swinging and missing under control in 2009, Lind was back to posting a 10+% swinging strike percentage. Obviously, his contact rate went down the tubes (tying a career low in a much bigger sample). It made Lind appear to be a platoon player who should never face lefties and who might hit just 20-25 HRs with a modest average at best. He wasn’t as bad as he was going, but the rates he had posted in 2009 seemed like the high watermark for his career.

Remember: what goes up must go down and vice versa. Lind’s 2011 season has, so far, seen a return to his 2009 potential: he is crushing lefties (.304/.340/.500) and posting a .337/.382/.614 slash line. Sure his BABIP is a bit high (.341), but he is sporting a career high 25.2% line drive rate. Even more important, his HR/FB rate has skyrocketed past 2009’s number to 23.2%. He is back to swinging and missing less and making more contact (and boy what contact!). While this is probably the best stretch of Lind’s career, I don’t think it’s a mirage. When the Astroturf settles, Lind will hit 30 HRs, and bat .300/.355/.540. He’s a great 1b option.

Brandon Morrow – Just five years ago, Morrow was the 5^th overall selection by the Seattle Mariners. He started in the minors in 2006 and pitched pretty well, albeit in 32 innings. He did walk a ton of guys, but his K-rate was tantalizing.

He actually broke spring training with the club in 2007 and pitched well in relief (as well as someone can with a 7.11 BB/9 rate). He started five games in 2008, but was used mostly as a reliever. Over his 45 appearances (5 starts/40 relief), he cut the walks down and posted a 10.44 K/9 rate. Still, his massive potential (who spends a top 10 pick on a reliever) suggested he would eventually be given a real shot at the rotation. The Mariners gave him ten more starts in 2009, though they also used him in relief for another 16 other games. He was then traded to the Blue Jays for a decent relief pitcher. Whoops.

In 2010, the Blue Jays used Morrow exclusively as a starter, trotting him out to the mound 26 times throughout the season. The early returns weren’t great. In 18 first half starts, he had a 2.36 K/BB rate, 1.46 WHIP and 4.86 ERA. There was potential though.  Specifically, he had 111 Ks in just 100 IPs.

In the second half, Morrow’s numbers got better.  Much better. In 46.1 IPs, Morrow had a 3.53 K/BB rate, 1.21 WHIP and 3.69 ERA. He posted an incredible 13 K/9 rate. On the one hand, Morrow was doing this primarily against the AL East – the most competitive division in baseball. On the other, talent tends to be a bit diluted in the second half, with teams inflating their rosters with prospects in the hopes of separating the AAAA players from the potential future cornerstones.

In 2011, Morrow appears to be doing his best first half 2010 impression: 2.64 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP and 5.63 ERA in 54.1 IPs.

Still, his BABIP is .358 (a decent amount over his .342 number last year). He isn’t striking out fewer batters or walking more. He is struggling with a poor strand rate (60.3%) without the corresponding high HR/FB rate. Color me a Morrow believer. Now is the time to acquire him. We’ve seen him capable of putting together top 20 SP stretches. The Ks will be there regardless, his BABIP will be similar to last year and he should end with an ERA similar to last year as well. It’ll be a fun ride as he gets there.

Justin Masterson – The Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde thing that Masterson has going on has always made him something of a fantasy conundrum.  I speak, of course, about his split personalities when it comes to batters on opposite sides of the plate. To date, Masterson has allowed a .294/.376/.430 line against lefties and has a meager 1.38 K/BB rate. Against righties, he has allowed a .224/.304/.307 line with a 2.70 K/BB rate.

For him to be anything other than a reliever, he would have to figure out lefties, right? Well, sort of, it appears.

In limited samples this year (229 plate appearances versus a lefty batter, 164 with a righty), Masterson has a 2.21 K/BB rate and allowed a .308/.357/.418 line against lefties. Somewhat shockingly, he has a 1.89 K/BB rate against righties but a .204/.305/.232 slash line allowed. This is extremely odd.

So how is Masterson being so successful (3.16 ERA, 3.20 FIP and 3.71 xFIP) relative to past years? He has a slightly better strand rate than he is used to (but it isn’t crazy out of whack). His BABIP is in line with his career numbers, even though his line drive and contact rates are up and his ground ball and swinging strike rates are down. He has been walking fewer batters than typical, but he’s also not striking out as many guys.

All of that is mostly a wash. The real advantage has been Masterson’s ability to keep the ball in play to date. He has a miniscule 3.9% HR/FB rate compared to double digits for his career. That will change and it will hurt Masterson. He’s not Matt Cain (and even Cain, who really keeps the ball in play, has never had a HR/FB rate under 5.5).

I’m not overly optimistic on Masterson going forward. I don’t think he’ll be useless, but his final line will look like a 3.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 150 Ks. Unless Masterson can get lefties out, he’ll continue to face stacked lineups (which is why he’s faced roughly 200 more lefties than righties in his career).

Ryan Dempster – 2.17.  Will continue to get better.  Oh, and the two of the three unluckiest pitchers are Cubs.  Blame Bartman!  (BTW, there were some pitchers I left off of here that came with xFIPs that were better than their ERAs, but still terrible.  Javier Vazquez come to mind.)

Chris Volstad – 1.96.  Harumph, where did that name come from, huh?  His K-rate is 6.72, which isn’t terrible, and his K to BB ratio recently has been solid.  Worth a shot in deeper leagues to see if he can right the ship and leave a few more men on base and stop having balls go through.

Matt Garza – 1.54.  He has the 4th best xFIP in the league.  Right after Halladay, Hamels and Cliff Lee.  Maybe the Phils will trade for him.

Chris Carpenter – 1.05.  I’ve spent a lot of energy on Razzball talking about how I don’t like Carpenter, so I won’t bore myself by rehashing.  Instead, I’ll bore myself by talking about how I won’t rehash it.  If you can get Carp on the cheap, it’s worth considering, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher.

Chris Narveson – 0.98.  Has a real nice K-rate and his xFIP is below 3.50.  The walks kinda drive me crazy though.  If he’s on waivers, it’s worth a shot.

Derek Holland – 0.89.  I really don’t like messing with Texas pitchers.  I wouldn’t like to sit in the stands in 100 degree heat, let alone play in it.  Now get off my lawn!

Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.80.  Jackie Chiles thinks his walks have been egregious, and his K-rate has been down.  On the more positive side, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher, but closer to a mid-3 guy.

Josh Beckett – 1.69.  I’d love to see Red State Jeter’s regression to his 3.75 xFIP.  Biggest reason, cause I don’t own him anywhere.  2nd biggest reason, because he’s helping other teams win.  3rd reason, the first two were already the same, don’t make me come up with a third.

Jair Jurrjens – 1.67.  Jar-Jar, any time you wanna cooperate and not be as good as you’ve been, it would be appreciated.  Meesa tanks you in advance.

Alexi Ogando – 1.58.  I’d feel differently about this post if I owned a few of these guys.  Maybe I should ignore LOB%, BABIP, K-rate and xFIP and just ride the hot hand…Then as soon as I pick them up they’ll get shelled.

Jeremy Hellickson – 1.39.  He’s kept his BABIP fairly low in the past, but it’s even below that right now.  His K-rate is also very low for him (and his ERA which makes me want to kick myself in the head).

Gio Gonzalez – 1.26.  There’s a lot of names on this list that I don’t own.  Gio’s one I have.  Sad emoticon.  Right now, I’m only starting him at home because I don’t trust him.  He seems to be losing control like Meatloaf working with Gary Busey.

Jered Weaver – 1.14.  I wouldn’t panic too much with this one.  Weaver’s not a 2.24 ERA pitcher, but he’s not his brother either.

Philip Humber – 1.04.  C’mon, a less than 5.50 K-rate?  That is the new blech.

Matt Harrison – 1.03.  Here comes the runs, and I say… I almost left Harrison off because who’s trusting him?  Maybe some people who only see the 3.31 ERA.  These are people that probably aren’t reading this site…Never the hoo!

Kyle Lohse – 1.00.  Another guy that falls into the Harrison category; you should know he’s not around a mid-2 ERA pitcher.  If you don’t, shame on you.  But you can put the blame on me…Said you can put the blame on me…

The following year he got his act together as an enterprising 17-year-old posting an admirable .320/.383/.463 line. He snuck into the top 100 prospects before the following season and would remain on that list until the end of 2003. At one point, he was the 8th best prospect in all the land.

He debuted in the majors with the Braves in 2001 at age 19 and didn’t get enough at bats to do anything. However, he wouldn’t return to the bigs until 2004, as a seasoned veteran (he was 22). He didn’t fair all that well, but the next year he saw 274 plate appearances in the majors and went .305/.359/.435. That would be the best stretch of his career.

Since then, he was traded for Willy Aybar, Danys Baez and cash in one deal, Scott Proctor in another and (along with Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez) for Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira.

Finally, in 2010 – a shocking 14 years after he signed his first contract – he would seemingly find a home with the Kansas City Royals. He appeared in 84 games for the Royals and went .297/.378/.511.

At 29, this season, Betemit has gone .297/.358/.419. If you combine the last two years, you get 496 plate appearances and a .300/.375/.484 line with a 162-game average of 20 HRs.

This isn’t the most objective piece as I have about a bazillion Betemit rookie cards (and boy was he skinny). But, in my opinion, the only thing stopping Betemit from being a top 10 third baseman is playing time (and Mike Moustakas). A final Betemit line will look a lot like .290/.350/.440 with 13-15 HRs. What a long strange trip it’s been.

Jeremy Guthrie – In 2002, the Cleveland Indians made Guthrie the 22nd pick of the draft. He’d dominate AA and earn a quick promotion to AAA, where things didn’t go so well. He started the next season in AA hoping to rekindle the previous year’s promise. It didn’t work, nor did his promotion to AAA. In 2005, he spent the entire year at AAA and did nothing (5.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP). Still he had a not completely miserable 2.04 K/BB ratio.

Finally, in 2006, at 27 years old, Guthrie would show promise at AAA: 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, he had little success with the major league club in very few innings and the Orioles plucked him off waivers. This might have been one of the smartest things that club has done in a decade.

In 2007, Guthrie showed all the promise of a late first rounder. He had a 2.07 K/BB rate, a 3.70 ERA, and 6.31 K/9 rate. While he has averaged 12 loses per year in his four full seasons with the Orioles, he also has a 2.20 K/BB rate, 4.06 ERA and 5.5 K/9 rate.

He has actually improved on those numbers, so far, in 2011, posting a 5.85 K/9 rate and 3.71 K/BB rate. For the first time in his career Guthrie is walking less than two batters per nine innings – significantly less.

What is most surprising is that batters are making more and better contact on strikes. His line drive rate is up and his ground ball rate is down. However, his BABIP is about where it has been for his career.

I’d be mildly surprised if Guthrie, all of a sudden, stopped walking guys. However, it isn’t a total mirage. By the end of the year, Guthrie will pitch 200+ innings with an ERA in the 3.80 – 4.00 range, 140 Ks and a very nice 1.25 WHIP. Can anyone say Tim Hudson? He’d look real good in an Indians uniform right about now.

Phil Humber – I’m not sure what Earl Weaver would say about a 6-man rotation, however it’s not as if one White Sox pitcher is discernibly better than another.

In fact, Humber might have one of the better pedigrees on the entire staff. He was the 3rd overall pick by the New York Mets in 2004. After the draft, Humber was immediately ranked the #50 prospect in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, he injured his elbow in his first start in AA in 2005 and was out of baseball recuperating for 377 days.

In 2008, he was traded to the Minnesota Twins as part of the Johan Santana deal. He didn’t show much promise for the Twins in AAA, walking over three batters per nine in his two seasons and allowing a ton of hits. Still, he did post a 7 and 6.5 K/9-rate, so there was some promise. However, not enough for the Twins to keep him around as he was granted his free agency

The Royals signed him in 2009 and on August 5, 2010 he earned a promotion. Twenty days later, Humber got his first major league win.

While he pitched reasonably well for the Royals, it was only 21.2 innings and he was placed on waivers. The Athletics took a run at him before, ultimately, the White Sox plucked him off the wire.

This year, Humber has pitched 67.2 innings for the Sox, posting a 3.06 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 5.05 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. Any way you slice it, he’s been good in a real world sense.

Humber is getting a decent swinging strike percentage (8.3%) and a pretty low contact rate (82.2%). In addition, batters don’t seem to be making great contact against him (16.1% line drive rate). Still, that .224 BABIP is not going to continue.

I really like the Humber story. I’m very happy for him. Not only did he overcome the surgery and journeyman waiver process, but he was also struck in the face by a line drive. I just can’t really advocate his fantasy ownership. At some point, he won’t be a full time starter, and, even if he continues to start, we’re looking at a 4.50 ERA at best, 5.4 K/9 and maybe 165 total innings.

AL-only seems like the only place for him. Still, if he could end up on a National League squad at some point, things could get more interesting.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Cabrera’s been having a tremendous season. His 11 HR’s on the year are nearly double his previous career high of 6 HR, and his .306 batting average is almost 20 points higher than his .287 career line. Preseason projections were decent, but not earth shattering. Bill James had Cabrera going .292, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 78 R, 13 SB, and ZiPs projected a very similar .286, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 55 R, 9 SB. So, obviously, while his numbers would be quite decent in deeper, mixed leagues, he was a fringe starter at best. And yet, as we enter the second week of June, Cabrera is ranked #9 overall in Yahoo! fantasy leagues, good enough to lay the claim as the highest ranked shortstop in the game, above stalwarts Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Hanley Ramirez. So what’s the deal?

Analysis: Cabrera’s having a great season, and I hate to take anything away from that. But really, where is this coming from? The best power he ever displayed professionally came in 2007, when he hit 8 HR’s in 105 games across Double- and Triple-A. So while natural growth and progression could have allowed him to increase his 6-8 HR’s per year to 12-15, his current pace (31) is way beyond any previous expectations or results. So as much as I want to believe in the guy, it’s hard to do so with a serious face. Yes, he’s changed his approach at the plate, taking bigger swings on advice from teammate Orlando Cabrera. But unlike last year’s freak breakout, Jose Bautista, Asdrubal Cabrera has absolutely no history of any power. At least Bautista had the second half of 2009, in which he slugged 11 HR’s in 193 at-bats. I’m calling the bluff here. Sell high.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .293, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 85 R, 20 SB

Alex Gordon – Alex Gordon had me worried for a little while there. After I touted him so highly in preseason, I looked pretty good for the first month. But after seeing his OPS reach .940 on May 1st, he went into a bit of a free-fall, and by May 19th, it was down to .780. For all intents and purposes, it looked like Gordon wasn’t having the breakout season it had first seemed. But now, after a brilliant two weeks, his OPS is back up to .838, and his 162-game pace is .287, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 102 R, and 14 SB. Superstar? Not quite yet, but certainly a useful player.

Analysis: I’ve always liked Gordon, ever since he was drafted in the 1st Round of the 2005 MLB Draft. His minor league career was obviously brilliant, albeit brief in its one season. As such, after 4 seasons of relative mediocrity at the Major League level, doubters were plentiful. His ZiPs preseason projection was a mere .257, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 51 R, and 6 SB. But he’s made strides in 2011, hitting the ball with more authority and lowering his K-rate to 21.4% (previous career low had been 24.3%). His ISO is now sitting at .192, nothing amazing but also nothing to sneeze at, and the emergence of Eric Hosmer has finally given Gordon and teammate Billy Butler some additional lineup protection. While my original projection of 25 HR’s may look a little optimistic right now, I do think he’ll come fairly close.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .286, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 90 R, 9 SB

Dillon Gee – Young and unheralded, Dillon Gee has had quite the start to his Major League career. Over his first 16 career games (13 starts), Gee’s line reads 8-2, 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 87.0 IP / 56 K. Not shabby, eh? He was drafted in the 21st Round of the 2007 MLB Draft and, after 437.2 minor league innings, managed a 3.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go along with a brilliant 4.05 SO/BB ratio. So why wasn’t Gee found on any top prospect lists? Well, his draft status obviously played a role, as did his “stuff,” which is decent but nothing mind-shattering. Gee was thus projected as a low-floor, low-ceiling pitcher who could fit in nicely as a #5 starter. But he hasn’t performed that way. Instead, he’s given every impression of being a solid mid-rotation starter. Much like Jon Niese before him, Gee has provided hope for the Mets’ future rotation.

Analysis: As mentioned, Gee’s minor league SO/BB ratio was tremendous. Given that his career K-rate in the minors was 7.9, he’s proved his ability to get batters out despite his high 80′s fastball. True, most top starters have a zippier pitch, but there also have been plenty of pitchers who won games without an All Star arsenal. Gee’s poise is that of a veteran; despite being only 4 years removed from not being allowed a legal can of beer, Gee has shown great command on the mound. That being said, being smart and in control does not  make one an ace. His 2011 MLB K-rate of 6.5 is too low in comparison to his BB-rate of 3.3. As such, I don’t see him maintaining an ERA in the low 3′s. He’s also encountered a bit of good luck, with an opposing BABIP of merely .232. He’ll have a rookie collapse at some point, and with his below-average fastball, those starts could be ugly. Still, all in all, I do think he’s a decent pitcher. Consider him an option in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues. Keep in mind, of course, that his youth may push the Mets to monitor his innings as the year progresses.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 13 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 IP / 110 K

Anibal Sanchez – He was always highly thought of. He was ranked as the #40 overall prospect by Baseball America in 2006, and seemed primed to become a future front line starter. But it didn’t happen- not a fault of his talent. Rather, it’s the injury bug that’s continuously bitten, forcing him to fall short of 30 starts in all but one season, 2010. In that season, however, he pitched very well: 13 W, 3.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 195 IP / 157 K. He also had a tremendous rookie season, for those of you who could remember all the way back to 2006. That year, he went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA. So, it’s not totally unprecedented for him to succeed. But will he continue to do so?

Analysis: Sanchez is having a huge year, and seems to be finally delivering on his vast potential. Both his K- and BB-rates are lined up to be career highs, and he’s only gotten better as the season’s progressed. Additionally, after a newly developed labrum tear operation, his average velocity is actually up to 91.3 MPH (a good bit higher than his career average). Most importantly, Sanchez’s command has seen tremendous improvement. He’s sporting near career highs in contact-rate, first-strike percentage, and in-zone contact rate. Reportedly, he’s also improved the movement on his secondary options, and is using his slider and change-up to rack up the K’s. So long as he stays healthy, which his recent surgery should hopefully ensure, Sanchez looks every bit a #2 starter.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 14 W, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 203 IP / 200 K

Wow, it’s chilly in here…will the ice thaw?

Dan Uggla – The Braves signed Dan Uggla for his power, which thankfully he’s provided some of by hitting 7 HR’s thus far. His other numbers, however, are deplorable. An OPS of .559 isn’t even bench player material on a bad team, let alone that of a middle of the order slugger on a contending one. While his OPS hasn’t been good at any point this year, it’s absolutely plummeted since hitting a high note (.706) on April 4th.

Analysis: Nobody expected Uggla to repeat his .287 batting average from 2010; a player with his below average speed simply can’t sustain a BABIP of .330. But 2011 has provided a complete reversal in fortune, as Uggla’s BABIP now sits at .186. Additionally, while he’s actually striking out at the 2nd best rate of his career (20.6%), his walk rate (7.9%) is the 2nd worst of his career. So while he’s making slightly better contact (in that he’s not missing pitches for strike 3′s), he’s also seen a pretty substantial drop in his patience. This could be due to him getting frustrated by his bad luck. Or perhaps he’s getting antsy with Turner Field’s large dimensions. Either way, it’s not a good thing. Still, Uggla’s track record is too good for this. He’s hit no less than 27 HR’s in any single season, so while his batting average may never again top .265, there’s no reason to think that the power will vanish. With a .174 batting average, there’s really nowhere to go but up. Buy low, and thank the Maker you can get these kind of numbers out of a second baseman.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .245, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R, 3 SB

Chone Figgins – Ya know when you just don’t like a guy? Not personally, of course, but as a fantasy baseball asset? For me, that guy has always been Chone Figgins. I think it’s the fact that the extent of his fame far exceeds what is worthy of a player with a sub-100 career OPS+. Or maybe it’s because I expect speed players to score 100+ runs on an annual basis. Perhaps it’s simply my confusion on how to pronounce his first name. Whatever the reason, I’ve never drafted Chone Figgins, and have never advised others to, either. Now he’s mired in a season-long funk, which has only gotten worse over the past several weeks. Yes, he’s stolen a few bases when he’s actually been on, but that’s about it.

Analysis: Figgins’ steals are actually not as valuable as they may seem. With only 7 steals to go along with his 5 times being caught, Figgins has been extremely inefficient on the base paths. I wonder how many green lights he’ll be given going forward considering that success rate. To make matters worse, his walk rate (5%) is well below his career average of 9.9%, and his BABIP of .209 is inexcusable given his speed. While Figgins possesses a career batting average of .282, he did hit .259 last season, showing perhaps that his decline had already begun. When speed players decline, they do so at a fairly quick pace. Manager Eric Wedge has benched Figgins a few times so far, and if Figgins can’t get his act together, I can see it becoming a growing trend. Not feeling too much warmth here…if you can part ways successfully, it wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .235, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 45 R, 22 SB

Max Scherzer – A huge second half in 2010 (2.47 ERA, 102.0 IP / 96 K) had Scherzer primed for a giant year in 2011. While he’s continued to strike batters out at a substantial pace (8.50 K-rate thus far), his GB% has dropped 6 points from his career average, and he’s allowed a career high 1.38 HR/9. He’s been simply dreadful as of late, allowing 14 ER and 16 H over his last 8.2 IP.

Analysis: Outside of 4 starts, Scherzer has been lights out in 2011. He’s had 7 starts in which he’s allowed 2 runs or less over 5.0 IP, and has also struck out 7+ batters in, again, 7 of his starts. I guess 7 truly is a lucky number. So really, it’s only his last couple of starts that have been a concern. The first, in which he gave up 7 earned runs (again with 7′s?!) in a mere 2.0 IP against the Red Sox was truly brutal. Still, it’s hard to imagine Scherzer has completely lost it. There have been no reports of decreased velocity and, despite being bashed during those starts, Scherzer maintained his K- and BB-rates. I see no reason to believe his recent performance represents a long-term depression. Sit him during his next start to allow him to stretch a bit, but be prepared to insert him back into your rotation soon. While he may encounter a dip or two like this, he’ll contribute in big ways for your W and K categories.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 15 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 201 IP / 193 K

Joakim Soria – Who could possibly have seen this one coming? Soria entered the year as an easy choice for Top 5 Closer, but recently lost his job to rookie Aaron Crow. Earning losses and blown saves during his 3 most recent opportunities, Soria gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs across a mere 2.1 IP. While he sported a 3.86 ERA prior to those games, that’s not too wonderful for a closer, and even worse considering his 2.35 career mark. So what gives?

Analysis: Soria’s metrics are all over the place right now. His K-, BB-, and HR/9 rates are all career worsts, and his first-pitch strike and swinging strike rates have been simply awful. Moreover, his 18.5% outside swing rate is currently last among all qualified MLB relievers, meaning that hitters aren’t chasing his moving balls for strikes. Additionally, scouting reports have been stating his cutter, which has been a plus pitch in the past, has faltered, and for some reason, he has all but abandoned his curve, which had previously been his out pitch. Still, it’s hard to imagine Soria’s morphed suddenly into Mel Rojas, so don’t drop him quite yet. While you’ll need to make allowances for the closer position, Soria should eventually regain his spot. He’s pitched perfectly in each of his last 2 outings (3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER), so that may be happen sooner than later.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 27 SV, 3.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 65 IP / 58 K

In 2003, Bossman Junior was the 21st ranked prospect in all the land. Before the 2004 season, he rose up to the number two position (behind Joe Mauer). By the end of that season, Upton had played 69 games at AAA, posting a .311/.411/.519 line. In 2005, he provided similar – albeit slightly lower – numbers at the same level (.303/.392/.490).

Clearly, the Devil Rays were intrigued. In 2006, the parent club promoted Upton for a limited audition. Over 50 games, and 189 plate appearances, he posted an inauspicious .246/.302/.291.

Nevertheless, the following season, at just 22, the Devil Rays gave Upton a shot at a full-time job. In 548 major league plate appearances, he flashed an incredible amount of promise: .300/.386/.508. There were, however, underlying concerns – he had a ridiculous K-rate (32.5%) and Austin Jackson-like BABIP: .395. Still, the isolated power (.209) and 22 stolen bases were nice.  (Isolated power “measures how good a player is at hitting for extra bases.”)

Unfortunately, the Devil Rays became just the Rays following that season and Upton lost his deal with the devil that made all those batted balls become hits. Oh, and he had that injury thing.

While Upton only hit nine home runs during the 2008 season, he did post an impressive .383 OBP, which allowed him to steal 44 bases. He also briefly became a friend of the devil in the postseason, smacking seven dingers.

Fantasy players hoped and séanced that 2009 would be the year Upton reached his 30HR/40 steal potential. He was healthy after all, and the memory of his 24 bombs in 2007 was still fairly fresh. Unfortunately, these hopes were unfulfilled. Instead, 2009 provided more of the same for Upton, as his batting average spiraled further downward and he mustered just 11 homers.

At this point, it looked like Upton was who he was – a light hitting, strike-out machine who could swipe some bases. Then, something magical happened. In 2010, he raised his HR/FB rate above 7.4% and into double digits (11%) for the first time since 2007. He also started hitting a few more fly balls, which contributed to his isolated power “spiking” to .187.

Sure, the .237 average left a lot to be desired. But, the signs for improvement were there. Notably, he had cut down on his ground balls in a major way.

In 2011, B.J. Upton is going to be a great fantasy contributor. He is swinging and missing less, striking out less and making way more contact. He has continued to hit fewer ground balls, and, instead, is hitting sound line drives and fly balls. He has also increased his HR/FB rate.

When all is said in done, Upton will hit 25 HRs, steal 40 bases and post a .255/.345/.440 slash line. Forget 2008-2010, 2011 is the season…

Justin Smoak (162-game pace: 47 runs, 22 HRs, 94 RBIs)

If anyone has ever watched Buck Martinez call a game, you’ll know that the sweetest thing your ears ever heard was the distinction and diction with which Martinez says Smoak.

Smoak was a top 25 prospect from 2009-2010. It’s safe to say he crushed a lot in the minors. For years, keeper league owners deliriously drooled over his potential returns in a potent Rangers lineup and the bandbox in Arlington. Unfortunately, Smoak failed to meet those expectations before heading northwest in exchange for Cliff Lee. Over 375 plate appearances for the Rangers, Smoak went .209/.316/.353 with eight homers.

Like the habitual Seattle rain, the Mariners’ ballpark does its best to dampen run production. Outside of San Diego, this was seemingly the worst place for Smoak to land. In 122 plate appearances with the Mariners last season, he went .239/.287/.407 with five homers. His underlying numbers showed some promise, though they did not indicate an immediate turnaround. Smoak finished with a 26.1% k-rate, .255 BABIP, and 77.3% contact rate. As you can see, his power improved somewhat, but not much else.

Heading into 2011, it didn’t appear that Smoak would reach his promise anytime soon. Indeed, it was entirely possible that the 24-year-old’s development was set back years by his 2010 season and subsequent trade. Smoak must not have been listening to the critics, however. Rather than continue his pedestrian 2010, he came out of spring training gunning. In his first 147 plate appearances, Smoak has a .271/.376/.486 line and six homers.

Clearly he just needed a little adjustment time, right? Wrong.

To date, the Mariner’s first baseman has a .327 BABIP, which just doesn’t jive with the .255 average he had last year, especially when you look under the hood. Smoak has a 13.5% line drive rate (it was 23.1% last year). He has a 37.5% fly ball rate (similar to last season), yet he has a 15.4% HR/FB rate which is a bit higher than in 2010. The scariest thing about Smoak is his 49% ground ball rate. A guy hitting that many balls on the ground is not an elite power or average source.

While his K-rate is slightly down, he is swinging and missing more. He is also making less contact this year than last year.

I’m not optimistic Smoak will continue to have anything like the success he has so far. If he bats over .250, I’ll be shocked. If he hits more than 10 more homers the rest of the way, I’ll be confused. In short, this is the best stretch he’ll have all season. If I owned him, I’d be selling in every league imaginable, including keeper leagues.

Carlos Beltran – Coming into the season, not much was expected of Carlos Beltran. He had spent the majority of the 2009 and 2010 seasons on the DL, and as an aging center fielder, the outlook wasn’t good. Bill James projected a dash line of .274/.369/.478 over 116 games, while ZiPs was less optimistic at .270/.354/.447 over only 99 games. Thus far, Beltran has blown away those projections, posting early season results of .285/.373/.569 while blasting 8 HR’s and driving in 24. That puts him on a full season pace of 32 HR’s and 95 RBI’s, which would certainly put him back into “superstar” status.

Analysis: Probably the smartest decision Beltran and the Mets made in Spring Training was to move him to right field. The softened fielding requirements have allowed Beltran’s aching knees a break, thus enabling him to stay healthy. And that’s the key– when he’s on the field, there’s really no argument regarding Beltran’s ability to produce; in 78 September at-bats in 2010, he smashed to a line of .321/.365/.603. Assuming he remains healthy, which I am doing since he’s playing right field, I don’t see him having any major dips in production. Should he be traded to an AL team (Anaheim, Detroit, Oakland, and Chicago seem like good landing spots), he would likely DH and possibly produce at an even higher level. That being said, because of his knees, Beltran’s days as a 5-tool threat are seemingly over. He hasn’t attempted a single stolen base all season long.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .285, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 88 R, 5 SB

Erick Aybar - He is one of several Angel prospects who, as of 2010, seemingly hadn’t reached their potential (others that come to mind are Casey Kotchman, Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick). Ranked in Baseball America ‘s Top 100 prospects list 3 times (#39 in 2005, #46 in 2006, and #61 in 2007), Aybar was a terrific prospect who was supposed to contend for batting titles, steal 30-50 bases, and hit for decent (10+ HR) pop. And yet, entering 2011, he had never topped 5 HR’s or 22 SB’s, and had hit over .280 only once (in 2009, .312). But suddenly, along with his teammate Kendrick, Aybar is performing at an All-Star level. But will Aybar’s Ichiro impression last, or is it a mirage?

Analysis: Aybar has been extremely fortunate this season, sporting a .396 BABIP (career, .314), despite walking at a career-low 3.3%. While speed players such as Aybar have historically been able to get by with higher BABIP’s (beating out infield grounders, bunting for hits, etc), there’s little chance that he’ll be able to sustain his .351 batting average while walking at such an abysmal rate. If he does, we’re talking about a historic season, as it would put him on par with Ichiro’s greatest year (2004: Ichiro hit .372 with a BABIP of .399). Now, Ichiro doesn’t walk too much, either (career rate of 6.3%), but what makes him special is his ability to make contact and not strike-out (career rate of only 10%). Right now, Aybar is striking out  in 14.9% of his at-bats and, given his career rate is 13.7%, I don’t see that number seeing a significant improvement. All that said, it doesn’t mean he can’t be a positive fantasy asset. As his minor league stats show us, he has the ability to hit for average and steal bases. While I don’t expect him to win the batting title, I do think he’s turning a corner in his career.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .295, 8 HR, 60 R, 32 SB

Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzelanny is another former top prospect who has yet to put it all together. Despite his strong minor league numbers (2.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and K-rate of 8.9 over 530.1 IP), he’s been, for the most part, a #3/#4 starter at the Major League level. Nothing wrong with that, of course, but not exactly what was expected from the former 2^nd round pick. Yet so far in 2011, Gorzelanny has been tremendous. Whereas he previously had struggled with his control (MLB career 4.06 BB-rate), he’s  seemingly gotten a hold of it. As of today, he’s posted a career-best BB-rate of 2.98 while still striking batters out at a decent rate of 7.44. So has Gorzelanny emerged as a solid fantasy option, or is he getting lucky in the early going?

Analysis: From April 15 through May 7, Gorzelanny posted 5 consecutive starts in which he allowed less than 2 earned runs. He threw 32.1 innings while striking out 21 batters (5.89 K-rate). In his other 2 starts on the year, he’s combined for 10.0 IP while allowing 9 earned runs and striking out 14 batters (12.6 K-rate). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s going on. Gorzelanny is at his best when he’s pitching rather than throwing. Striking batters out usually entails throwing a lot of pitches, which in turn raises the potential for opposing batters to get a hit or walk. With pitchers, such as Gorzelanny, who have historically struggled with their control, it’s sometimes better to let those batters make contact for outs. But that’s a hard lesson to teach, and one that the young pitcher has still not mastered. On the flip side, however, while one may point to his high FIP of 4.95 and claim that he’s been the fortunate recipient of good defense, I think this would be a little misleading. Not to completely disprove such theories, but his ground ball to fly ball tendencies are a little off this season. Although he’s induced a fair number of ground balls throughout his career (41.3% GB-rate), that number has shrunk to 32.2%, which conveniently corresponds with his high HR/FB rate of 12.9% (career, 8.9%). When these numbers gravitate back towards career averages, I expect his FIP will decrease as well. All that being said, opponents are getting by with a pathetic .189 BABIP (career .292) against Gorzelanny. This is an obviously unsustainable number, which will inevitably rise. I expect Gorzelanny to continue striking some batters out, and he may have a good streak or 2 throughout the season. But when the numbers balance out and reality sets in, he’s a #3 starter. That does have value, but if I owned him now, I’d definitely sell high.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 175 IP / 150 K

Homer Bailey - This list is chock full of former star prospects, isn’t it? Bailey may have been the brightest, as he twice was ranked in Baseball America’s Top 10 (#5 in 2007 and #9 in 2008). He was expected to be an ACE, in every sense of the word, but after 317 career innings pitched at the Major League level, has managed only a 4.91 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Clearly, he hasn’t worked out as planned. Still, he entered the 2011 season as a mere 24-year-old, so his book hasn’t been finished quite yet. To date, Bailey’s biggest culprit has been himself, as he’s been oft-injured and, when healthy, hasn’t been able to harness his stuff. But 2011 has been different…so far anyway. He’s started only 2 games, but has looked abslutely brilliant in them. Showing every reason why the Reds made him the 7^th overall pick in the 2004 MLB Draft, Bailey currently owns a 8.31 K-rate to go along with a minuscule 0.69 BB-rate.

Analysis: As stated, the biggest threat to Bailey’s success has been his injury-proneness. While it’s hard to predict health, I think it’s safe to say that Bailey has certainly shown significant growth over his Major League journey. He lowered his ERA each season from 2008-2010, while simultaneously raising his K-rate from 4.5 (2008) to 8.3 (2010). Batters are currently sporting a .257 BABIP against him which, although lower than his career .311 rate, is not quite in the “ridiculous” range. Still, it explains why his LOB-rate has been 90% and why his FIP (1.32) is significantly higher than his actual ERA. Assuming Bailey stays healthy, however,  I can see him having a very good year. I definitely like the growth he’s shown, and even in a busy and competitive Reds rotation, feel he has the stuff to make it as a front-line starter. If you have him, hold onto him. His injury history means he won’t net you much in a trade, but if he stays healthy, you’ll have hit the jackpot.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 13 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 185 IP / 164 K

Wow, it’s chilly in here…will the ice thaw?

Jason Bay - Making over $15 million a year, Bay has provided the Mets with terrible value. After missing much of 2010, projections for 2011 were lowered but still decent. Bill James had him hitting .267/.369/.471 with 21 HR, and ZiP’s, .252/.349/.455 with 20 HR’s. So clearly, nobody thought he’d return to pre-2010 form, but given even diminished expectations, Bay has disappointed. While he still hustles, he looks lifeless at the plate, and despite hitting in the middle of the order, has managed an awful 5 extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances. He simply looks cooked.

Analysis: There’s not too many positives to point to in Bay’s defense. While his K- and BB-rates have remained near his career levels, he’s simply shown next to nothing over his past 115 games dating back to the start of 2010. His current BABIP of .275 is significantly lower than his career rate of .326, so there’s certainly a chance he’s suffering from some bad luck. But even then, what good is a .250, 20 HR hitter? Not much, sadly. Bay’s career as an above average slugger appears all but dead. Stay far, far away.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .255, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 55 R, 7 SB

Jose Tabata - He could easily have made the “Fire” list a month ago; his stats as of April 17 were .310/.420/.517 with 3 HR, 4 RBI, 13 R, and 8 SB, and he looked like an emerging star. But the warning signs were plentiful; he had struck out 12 times in only 15 games, and had a completely unsustainable BABIP. He’s come back to Earth, but instead of settling in as a nice .285, 10 HR, 30 SB guy, has completely fallen apart.

Analysis: Despite his low batting average, Tabata is still walking at a very decent rate (14.1%). He simply hasn’t been hitting. As is often pointed out, speed guys like Tabata can get by with high BABIP’s (he hit .299 in 2010 with a BABIP of .339). Yet thus far in 2011, he’s been quite unlucky, sporting a BABIP of merely .255. Considering his high BB-rate, this is the most likely culprit for his low batting average. While I don’t think he’s quite ready to become the 5-tool player many projected he would when he was a prospect, I do think he’s a LOT better than he’s currently showing. Hold onto him, or if you need speed, target him as a good buy-low candidate. He’ll end the year as a positive fantasy asset.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .278, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 93 R, 35 SB

John Danks - It’s simply mind-boggling to stare at Danks’ 0-6 record through 8 starts. At first glance, his numbers are pretty terrible, particularly in the W and WHIP categories. Entering the year as one of the league’s Top 30 starters, big things were expected of him, and rightfully so. From 2008-2009, Danks was one of the American League’s most reliable bets, pitching at least 195 innings and winning at least 12 games in each season, while posting ERA’s ranging from 3.32-3.77. As steady as they came, one could say. And so ZiPs’ preseason predictions reflected this, projecting 15 wins and an ERA of 3.82. Obviously, things haven’t yet worked out and, after his latest implosion (5.0 IP, 10 H, 6 ER), he became one of the most popular drops across all Yahoo! public leagues.

Analysis: Forgetting his ugly numbers and delving deeper into his stats reveals some valuable information. Danks has been on the losing end of several hard-luck outcomes, (for example: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, LOSS; 8.0 IP, 1 ER, ND), and is currently the unlucky victim of a .327 opposing BABIP (career, .287). Otherwise, his metrics are very much in line with his career averages. In fact, his current strikeout rate of 6.92 and walk-rate of 2.77 would both be his best since 2008. So while his surface stats are obviously less than inspiring, his FIP (3.92) paints a clearer picture of his actual performance to date. Currently owned in a mere 65% of all Yahoo! public leagues, he’s definitely somebody I’d target in any league. He’ll right the ship, and when he does, you’ll be happy you picked him up.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 3.80 ERA 1.26 WHIP, 203 IP / 158 K

Chris Carpenter - Taking out 2007 and 2008 due to injuries, Chris Carpenter has been one the Major’s top starters since 2004. He has continuously won 15+ games while posting ERA’s in the low to mid 3′s. So when one glances at his 4.95 ERA as of May 17^th,  it certainly comes as a shock. Even more startling is his recent performance which, for lack of a better term, as been downright awful. He’s been extremely hittable — allowing 32 hits over his last 19.1 innings — and has seen his season ERA skyrocket from 2.08 on April 6 to 4.95 as of today.

Analysis: When I began Carpenter’s analysis, I was hoping to peek at his career splits and discover that he’s been a historically slow starter. If so, I would have pointed that out, shouted “Case Closed!” and been done with it. But with monthly ERA’s ranging from 3.52 – 4.20, he’s actually been startlingly consistent, making his current production even more surprising. So then, what’s the story? Let’s start in September, 2010. After posting spectacular numbers the entire season, Carpenter collapsed, posting a 4.78 ERA over 6 September starts. He suddenly looked tired and, at age 35, it probably was a result of the long and demanding season. Now 36, Carpenter is a year older and, perhaps, has simply lost a step. It’s hard to find another answer, as his K- and BB-rates are both near his career averages. He’s simply been extremely hittable, as opposing batters have benefitted from a .330 BABIP (career, .297). We could chalk some of this up to bad luck, of course, but Carpenter’s FIP of 4.13, although better than his actual ERA, isn’t that of a front-line starter. It’s difficult to say this, but his days of being one of the league’s best starters may be over. An improvement is definitely in store, but expecting an ace may be asking too much.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 188 IP / 139 K

Ryan Dempster – 3.52. His ERA is 7.20.  Honestly, it can’t get worse.

Matt Garza – 2.03.  Buy Garza!  Matt Garza.  The guy in the front of this blurb.  Immediately.  He has a 2.14 xFIP.  A K-rate of 11.78.  After his next start, it may be too late to buy him.  Go.  Now.  This post will be here when you return.

Travis Wood – 1.78.  I kinda love Wood, um… *blushes*  His buy low window is rapidly closing.

Francisco Liriano – 1.58. But his xFIP is 5.49 and his K-rate is abysmal, which is only topped by his egregious walk rate.  Nothing’s changed from when Rudy said you should try and sell him last week after his no-hitter.

Chris Narveson – 1.35.  His K/9 of 8.54 is purdy and his 3.03 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at unless you’re allergic to those sorta of things.

Ervin Santana – 1.32.  Another guy whose K-rate looks solid to go along with a solid walk rate.  Before too long, we may see magic from Ervin.

Yovani Gallardo – 1.21.  Seriously, every pitcher I own has been unlucky.  Been a really tough first month-plus for the stache.  Gallardo should get 3.75 ERA by year’s end.  And by ‘year’s end’ I mean, hopefully by next month.

Daniel Hudson – 1.14.  I’ve been pushing people to be patient with Hudson, now you see the why.

Madison Bumgarner – 0.72.  His innings last year still concern me, but he’s pitching well.  Well, better than it appears.

Edwin Jackson – 0.70.  Crazy how unlucky my pitchers have been to start the year.  Not crazy good but crazy like I want to stick my head in a oven.

The Royals were impressed; the following year they invited Gordon up for an extended cup of coffee that would last three years. In 2007, Gordon appeared in 151 games for the Royals and posted a middling .247/.314/.411 mark. Still he was only 23. At that age, a 6.8% walk rate and a 25.2% strikeout rate are correctable. And, on the bright side, he did hit 15 HRs and swipe 14 bases.

While Gordon’s debut wasn’t legendary, there was promise. Indeed, many fantasy prognosticators speculated that his 2008 season, at age 24, would be a 20-20 performance from a corner infielder. Well, Gordon did improve (.260/.351/.432 with 16 HRs and nine steals), just not by leaps and bounds. Though his counting stats did not meet expectations, his secondary numbers indicated growth: his line drive and fly ball rates increased and his ground ball rate decreased.

In the minds of the fantasy community, 2009 was sure to be Gordon’s behemoth season. Or not. Gordon got off to a slow start, battled some injuries and only played in 49 major league games before being demoted to Omaha. In his limited games with Kansas City, Gordon hit .232/.324/.378, but without much increase in strikeouts or decrease in walks. He did hit fewer line drives and way more ground balls – but 49 games is a pretty small sample. When he played in the minors in ’09, he destroyed the ball.

Gordon’s 2010 appeared to follow the same path as 2009; in relatively few major league opportunities, Gordon exhibited similar hitting struggles (.215/.315/.355) that earned him his demotion the previous year. The numbers underlying those numbers, however, indicated that Gordon was salvageable. His line drives came back and his ground balls went away – at least similar to 2007 and 2008 levels. Furthermore, he had an uncharacteristically low .254 BABiP, nearly 50 points below his .302 career average.

Looking back on Gordon’s past two shortened major league seasons, the problem was not with Gordon’s talent. In 2009, in a small sample, his line drive rate was funky. In 2010, in a small sample, his average on balls in play was funky. At every reasonable sample in the minors, Gordon absolutely torched the ball.

In 2011, now 27 and in his prime, Gordon is thus far hitting .309/.367/.500. His line drive rate is in line with 2007-08 and 2010. He is swinging and missing less than at any point in his career, albeit not much less than last season. In 2011, he is destroying fastballs – a pitch that tortured him in 2010.

And, there is still room for likely improvement. Gordon is posting a surprisingly poor HR/FB rate (7.3% compared to 9.3% for his career and double digits the last two seasons).

Of course, I have not mentioned the one extremely funky 2011 statistic: .358 BABIP. Think of this as the  bent stick remedy for his miserable 2010 BABIP. When you meet in the middle of those two numbers, his average on balls in play is around .325 or so. With that kind of “luck” and a continued line drive rate, Gordon should hit .270.

Further, with a reasonable walk rate and if he maintains a similar isolated power, he should post a .360 OBP and .445 slugging percentage. Now for the “real” stats, i.e. the counting numbers. Gordon is a lock for 15 HRs, with upside to 20. So far he is 3/4 in SB attempts, I don’t see any reason he can’t go 11/15. In a suddenly somewhat potent Royals lineup (hello, Wilson Betemit – nice to meet you, Eric Hosmer), Gordon should score and knock in 80+ runs.

Gordon, to date, has disappointed on the major league stage. Fortunately, he looks to be back on his 2007 and 2008 MLB trajectory.

Dustin Moseley – -2.21.  I’d still continue to throw him in Petco-sponsored games, but I’d be careful about his away games.  At some point, he’s gonna look like Dustin Diamond.

Alexi Ogando – -1.89.  “His stuff is soooooo nasty!”  That’s you.  Soooooo, why is his K-rate soooooo whatever?  Ogando’s men LOB% is off the charts silly and his BABIP is abnormal like those cylinder hamburgers that rotate at 7-11.

Josh Tomlin – -1.57.  It is a total shocker to see Lily’s kid on this list of the luckiest pitchers.  Only because I’m surprised I even bothered mentioning him.

Zach Britton – -1.53.  Not surprising to me since he doesn’t strikeout anyone (4.78 K/9).  Throw in a terrible division and he’s going to hit the roofie skids at some point.  Caveat emptor for our Latin friends.

Kevin Correia – -1.45.  Wait, Correia actually sucks?  C’mon!  Get outta town, Grey!

Justin Masterson – -1.42.  Well, you knew his ERA wouldn’t stay in the low 2′s, at least you should’ve known.  But since his xFIP is 3.67, he could be usable going forward.  At least that’s what I want to tell myself since we actually own him in a league.

Tom Gorzelanny – -1.38.  To nerdify Shakira, his BABIPs lie, which has his WHIP at a redonkulous level.

Jeremy Guthrie – -1.29.  This post is kinda like shooting fish in a barrel.  Of course, Guthrie isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher.  Sorry to his fantasy owners and family.

Randy Wolf – -1.23. Since Wolf’s xFIP is only 3.62, I wouldn’t be as concerned.  If you get a 3.62 from Wolf, you’d take that all day long and twice on Muesday.

Trevor Cahill – -1.23.  Since I don’t own him anywhere, I look forward to the team from White-Out dropping correction fluid all over his stats.