Remember when I told you about how to tell when streaks aren’t streaks anymore? You don’t? Well, here’s the refresher course. In that piece, you’ll find a nice story about Chris Shelton, a random aside on Mike Trout and, of course, some funky math. Well folks, the time has arrived, and our first major stat threshold has been met. And that threshold is Contact%, and it stabilizes at 100 PA’s. Contact Percentage is pretty much how it sounds. It is the total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches. With the majority of starting batters now eclipsing the 100 PA mark, I’ll be taking a look at some movers and shakers in fantasy that have new contact skill-sets, for better or worse.Please, blog, may I have some more?
We are almost through April and most fantasy baseball owners fall in two categories. There are those owners that have gotten off to a good start and feel pretty comfortable about their teams. Maybe almost too comfortable. Then there are the “OH-MY-GOD-WHAT-HAVE-I-DONE!!!!” owners. You know who you are. I feel ya. I do. Hell, I’ve been there. Something has gone astray. You didn’t draft well or you had a minor Jerry Maguire freak-out moment and then proceeded to make a bad trade. This stuff happens to everyone, so how do you start to right the ship? There are some moves that you can make that to either stop the bleeding or to continue a fast start.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Note: If you don’t want the story, just scroll down to the bottom to see the statistical markers on how to tell the difference between Hot/Cold streaks or a real improvement or eroding of skills. But Santa is watching. And so am I. All the time.
Welcome friends and family! Actually, you’re right. Hi Mom. Thanks for being my only reader. I’m not sure if you remember who Chris Shelton is, but I certainly do. A week or so ago, I was actually thinking back to the best hot streaks to open the season, and if any of them were produced by players that I had owned. After all, the season is only a week old. Hope springs eternal and what not. So, of course I’m expecting Mike Morse to hit 489 homeruns. And yes, Yu Darvish will finish the season with 56,284 strike-outs. Stop looking at me like that. Thinking back and reminiscing all those seasons I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, which is 16 years if you needed to know. And since I deemed it necessary that you know that, I also, while somewhat ego driven, deem it necessary that you know I am not an old fogey. I’m actually only 30. Which to me feels old, but in fact, really is not that old. If you need proof, ask anyone over the age of 30 how they feel. I assume they will say they feel older than me. And then roll their eyes in disgust. And also, while we’re on this tangent, I’m not fat either. My OkCupid profile says I’m ‘average’, so therefore, it is the truth. And no, you’re not getting a link. Unless you are a hot female that resides in the greater metro area.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The DL slot in many fantasy leagues is one of the most misused and misunderstood positions on fantasy baseball teams. For most people, it’s believed to be where the hopes and dreams of their teams like Mike Morse, Chris B.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m going to talk about seemingly the most derisive topic since we had to choose a side on ‘great taste’ or ‘less filling’ for Miller Lite. I’m gonna speak about average, or ‘how many hits a player gets divided by their true at-bats which excludes their walks, sac flies, sac bunts, and HBP’ for all of you who need things spelled out. So let’s get one thing clear: your entire team does not need to hit .300 unless you’re playing in a 1 team league. Looking over at this Razzball link, we can see that your team needs to hit anywhere between .265 and .270 to be successful for the year. For all you guys and 4 girl readers out there, that equates to about 26.5/27 hits per 100 ABs. We’re not talking large numbers here, but if you want to, we could by adding a couple of zeros on the end. It doesn’t really change the topic, but feel free to. For a little experiment on how this works, I’m going to review my deep league thoughts columns (search Razzball for them by ‘Deep League Thoughts’ if you’d like to read them. Yeah, I just whored myself a bit) and my perfect team in which I have to start 2 at every position. When I’m non-specific about a target – such as in the 1B post – I’ll take the lowest average estimated player to further prove my point. Don’t hate me if I’m right and all you see is the inside of my nose as I look down on you; it’s only because I’m quite tall. Now since I have to pick one source for my numbers, I’ll be using Bill James’ 2012 projections. Though my league also includes two UTIL slots, I didn’t include it in my series seeing as it can be filled with any position so I won’t include them in the stats. If I had, I might’ve filled them with guys who hit for high average just to make you happy. I’m just that giving! See you in about 18 cell rows:
Deep League Thoughts Roster
The best team in a standard 12 team ESPN league – which is about as close to the league I’m describing is going to come – is hitting one point higher than me. Or at least I thought they were until I noticed the part where Grey says ‘These are all for one catcher leagues. If you have two catcher leagues, the counting stats go up a little bit and down a little on average.’ And that’s me quoting Grey, mimicking his ‘that’s me quoting me’ quoting style with bold italics for emphasis! To keep with the Q theme, it looks like our average met our quota. In fact, when you consider this team essentially rosters 2 more hitters than a standard ESPN league, this team might be ahead of the curve at this point. If you’re wondering about the counting stats and how they line up because you REALLY don’t like that this crazy idea just might work, I’ll save you the math trouble. Based on projections, this team is going to be at or above league average in runs (1191 vs 1045), RBIs (1195 vs 1008) and HRs (360 vs 261). The only category we’re lacking in is stolen bases as we estimate to get about 145 vs the need for 186. Considering the leg up we have on the other categories, we get to trade from strength or be ready for when SAGNOF is coming to town.Please, blog, may I have some more?
In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!Please, blog, may I have some more?
In the second installment of the grading process, it’s helpful to look at those sleepers I, Albert Lang, just nearly missed on – basically guys who were a push. These are players who were almost successful sleepers picks but walked too many, gave up too many HRs or just swung and missed a ton.Please, blog, may I have some more?
In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!Please, blog, may I have some more?