Fantasy Baseball Advice

The DL slot in many fantasy leagues is one of the most misused and misunderstood positions on fantasy baseball teams.  For most people, it’s believed to be where the hopes and dreams of their teams like Mike Morse, Chris B. Young (or if you like your KFC version, it’s Krispie Young) and Jacoby Ellsbury go to die while you go stick your head in the proverbial oven…or the literal oven, depending on how much you’re into this game.  For others, they see it for what it could and should always be used for: an empty bench spot.  To put it in literary canonical terms, it’s not just there for Paradise Lost, it’s also there for Paradise Regained (PS, I was an English major in college.  PSS, I didn’t read either, that is what Cliff’s Notes is for.  PSSS, now don’t tell me how bad my grammar is as I only read Chaucer, I didn’t write it.  PSSSS, don’t get an English degree, you won’t use it unless you plan on teaching or being homeless.).  Not only can you sock away one of your already owned injured players here, you can also put your imagination to the test when your team is healthy and use the spot or spots for a big dive into the ‘what if?’ pool.  Don’t get too wrapped up on the concept that the player may or may not come back successfully.  That is not the point.  The point is you don’t know what your team is going to look like in a week, a month or two months which means you don’t know if some guy that is on the DL could make an impact for your team when they come back.  With that, let’s get started on the first batch of players that are less than 50% owned in ESPN, Yahoo and Fleaflicker leagues:

Lorenzo Cain (ESPN 5.9%/Yahoo 15%/Fleaflicker 29%): March Grey told you to buy him and now whenever this gets posted ONC is telling you to stash him if you can.  He was recently sent to rehab which is worrisome.  I didn’t think he was friends with Josh Hamilton *re-reads news blurb* Ah, he’s been sent on his rehab assignment to double-AA as of April 22nd and there is hope he’ll be back within a week.  If your DL spot is lonely, give it a little Sugar!

Mike Carp (ESPN 1.7%/Yahoo 13%/Fleaflicker 16%): It’s hard to tell which Carp is going to show up at your door.  Will it be the one pan-seared in butter with rosemary and thyme that gave us a .322 average and 8 homers from July through August of 2011 or will he be the September Carp that your cat found in your neighbor’s trash can and drop a .230 average on you while still hitting 4 bombs?  And was that first analogy delicious or what?  The power is real, the average should be about .270′ish and he should be back as soon as he demonstrates he can play something other than DH.  Go Fish!

Freddy Sanchez (ESPN 0.4%/Yahoo 2%/Fleaflicker 2%): This one may be more of a deep league or NL-Only call, but all I can say is he can hit .300 while providing a decent amount of runs with little to no power nor speed.  Wanna know who that reminds me of?  Daniel Murphy, the guy who’s hitting .321 who has scored 5 runs and has a 0/0 in the homerun and stolen base department through 14 games and is owned at a 92.6% clip over at ESPN.  You say poh-tay-toe I say tubers because I like being difficult.  He is set to begin his rehab assignment on April 23rd.  If you’re in need, there are worse things you can do to your middle infield than give it a Freddy Sanchez.

I’m going to talk about seemingly the most derisive topic since we had to choose a side on ‘great taste’ or ‘less filling’ for Miller Lite.  I’m gonna speak about average, or ‘how many hits a player gets divided by their true at-bats which excludes their walks, sac flies, sac bunts, and HBP’ for all of you who need things spelled out.  So let’s get one thing clear: your entire team does not need to hit .300 unless you’re playing in a 1 team league.  Looking over at this Razzball link, we can see that your team needs to hit anywhere between .265 and .270 to be successful for the year.  For all you guys and 4 girl readers out there, that equates to about 26.5/27 hits per 100 ABs.  We’re not talking large numbers here, but if you want to, we could by adding a couple of zeros on the end.  It doesn’t really change the topic, but feel free to.  For a little experiment on how this works, I’m going to review my deep league thoughts columns (search Razzball for them by ‘Deep League Thoughts’ if you’d like to read them.  Yeah, I just whored myself a bit) and my perfect team in which I have to start 2 at every position.  When I’m non-specific about a target – such as in the 1B post – I’ll take the lowest average estimated player to further prove my point.  Don’t hate me if I’m right and all you see is the inside of my nose as I look down on you; it’s only because I’m quite tall.  Now since I have to pick one source for my numbers, I’ll be using Bill James’ 2012 projections.  Though my league also includes two UTIL slots, I didn’t include it in my series seeing as it can be filled with any position so I won’t include them in the stats.  If I had, I might’ve filled them with guys who hit for high average just to make you happy.  I’m just that giving!  See you in about 18 cell rows:

The best team in a standard 12 team ESPN league – which is about as close to the league I’m describing is going to come – is hitting one point higher than me.  Or at least I thought they were until I noticed the part where Grey says ‘These are all for one catcher leagues.  If you have two catcher leagues, the counting stats go up a little bit and down a little on average.’  And that’s me quoting Grey, mimicking his ‘that’s me quoting me’ quoting style with bold italics for emphasis!  To keep with the Q theme, it looks like our average met our quota.  In fact, when you consider this team essentially rosters 2 more hitters than a standard ESPN league, this team might be ahead of the curve at this point.  If you’re wondering about the counting stats and how they line up because you REALLY don’t like that this crazy idea just might work, I’ll save you the math trouble.  Based on projections, this team is going to be at or above league average in runs (1191 vs 1045), RBIs (1195 vs 1008) and HRs (360 vs 261).  The only category we’re lacking in is stolen bases as we estimate to get about 145 vs the need for 186.  Considering the leg up we have on the other categories, we get to trade from strength or be ready for when SAGNOF is coming to town.

Just to make sure you don’t think of me as some crazy, calculating genius who sits down and does this before I draft, realize I just did the math this morning as I typed this article.  I’m not saying that because I’m flippant about who and what I post about.  I did it since I knew the title of this article was ‘It All AVGs Out’ and guess what…it usually does and it did!  The moral of this story is don’t read a fantasy baseball blog if you’re looking for a story with morals…wait, that’s not it!  It should be ‘Don’t let your team become average just to avoid having a bad one.’

In the last installment of the grading process, we have to look at the bad – those guys I, Albert Lang, was totally wrong about. As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players! Thanks for reading!

Joe Nathan – After doing some research and talking to some folks, I was pretty sure Nathan was healthy and undervalued. Well, that wasn’t the case. He stumbled out of the gates and has been bogged down by the suckitude of the rest of the Twins. His year would look better if the Twins were capable of doing anything, but 13 saves isn’t going to cut it. It’s the 31^st most at the position and less than Kevin Gregg, Javy Guerra, Frank Francisco and Matt Capps.

Madison Bumgarner– I don’t think I was more off on a player than Bumgarner. I had him as the 76^th best starting pitcher, while consensus had him around 37. I saw Bumgarner as an uninteresting 3.50 ERA pitcher with a WHIP around 1.25 and 130 Ks. I wasn’t totally off on the ERA (3.32) or WHIP (1.24), but man I didn’t think he’d pitch this many innings with this kind of K-rate. Bumgarner sits as the 30^th best SP in fantasy this season. Whoops!

Jair Jurrjens – Like Bumgarner, I was pretty far off on Jurrjens. I had Jurrjens as 99 among starting pitchers, consensus had him around 50. I had him pegged for a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 130 Ks. I was incredibly concerned about his durability. While I nailed his inability to rack up Ks for you (the Braves have shut him down and he has just 90 Ks), his ERA (2.96) and WHIP (1.22) more than make up for those shortcomings. In fact, Jurrjens is the 36^th best pitcher in fantasy this year.

Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t differ with consensus much on Sandoval, but enough to make it really matter. The “royal we” had Sandoval as the 12^th best 3b, I had him as 15. I said he was a .300 hitter (I was right there) but with moderate pop. His 23 HRs (while missing time with an injury) are the opposite of moderate. Sandoval is the 10^th best 3b this season.

Tim Hudson – I was way off on Tim Hudson. While he wasn’t loved in the community (39^th SP), I really hated on him (65^th SP). I pegged Hudson to finish with a 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 140 Ks. Well, Hudson is the 18^th best SP in 2011 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 150 Ks. He’s beaten my projections pretty well. He keeps going out there and converting balls in play to outs. Congrats!

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Man, that was a bad call.

Brian Roberts – I don’t know which sleeper call was more laughable, Brian Roberts or Dice-K. Probably Dice-K, because when I wrote the Roberts section he was, supposedly, technically, healthy. God, why wouldn’t the Orioles trade him two years ago?

Logan Morrison – I thought Morrison would be an 80 run threat with a decent average and some moderate pop. Well, the pop has been anything other than moderate (23 HRs in 462 ABs), however he has scored just 54 runs and batted a disappointing .247. He’s gotten on base and the power is a great sign going forward, but he didn’t do what I expected this year.

Bobby Abreu – I had Abreu as a .265-.270 hitter with a .360 OBP, 90 runs, 18-20 HRs and 23-25 SBs. He hit .253 with just 54 runs, eight HRs, but has 21 SBs and a .353 OBP. I’d like to call this one a push, but it isn’t. I was wrong; Abreu is in full on decline now. What a great career, but the lights have clearly gone out.

James McDonald – It should come as no surprise that I love James McDonald. I had him down for an ERA in the 3.00s, a WHIP around 1.30 and 180 Ks. Well, he has 142 Ks, a 4.21 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has shown improvements, but that’s still a swing and a miss. That said, I did like him more than Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Mike Pelfrey, Randy Wells, Carl Pavano and Tim Stauffer. With the exception of Stauffer, I was dead on, making this just short of a clear push.

Brett Cecil – It just never came together for Brett Cecil the way I thought it could. I had him as the 62^nd best SP before the year, whereas he went largely unranked/undrafted by the masses. I saw an ERA somewhere between 3.85-4.15, 140 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.30-1.35 range. Well, the ERA (4.73) and WHIP (he’s at 1.33) are far from great. However, he never got the innings I thought he would and is sitting at just 87 Ks. I believe in him long-term, but he didn’t provide much value to teams in 2011.

Ike Davis – I personally blame the medical staff who work for the New York Metropolitans – but, then again, I know they haven’t been too successful lately. Moving forward, Mets players should have a Red Letter attached to their name.

Mike Aviles – I missed badly on Aviles. I ranked him as the 12^th best 2b and 9^th best SS. I believed he was capable of putting up a .290 average, 10-15 HRs and double digit steals. I must have been drunk when making that assessment.  Aviles is the 38^th best 2b, behind such standouts as Robert Andino, Brent Lilibridge and Aaron Miles. He fared a bit better against the shortstop pool, coming in at 30^th, although he is behind all glove, no-hit Brendan Ryan and Willie Bloomquist, who is all-nothing. He did have seven homers and 14 steals, but the .255 batting average and sporadic playing time made him worthless.

Jed Lowrie – It’s hard to say whether I was more incorrect about Lowrie or Aviles – it’s like comparing Bachman Turner Overdrive and Paul McCartney and Wings. I did couch my Lowrie prediction in a lot of qualifiers, but at the end of the day had him as a .274 hitter with 15 HRs and believed he was a likely top 25 player at the position. Sounds like a pretty flimsy projection. And yet, I still whiffed like Mark Reynolds does while batting/fielding. Lowrie, the 41^st ranked SS at the moment, is batting .252 and has tallied just six homers. He can’t stay healthy. I must repeat that to myself.

Daric Barton – Another horrible call. I truly believed Barton’s plate discipline would result in a cheap and easy 85 runs. I also saw him as similar to Gaby Sanchez from a few years ago, with double digit power + upside. It was clearly a deep league play, but I did advocate for Barton over James Loney. As for the tale of the tape: Barton has a .212 average, 27 runs and zero homers and has logged just 236 at bats. While Loney has sort of sucked, he’s been way better than that.

Aaron Hill – While I ranked him lower than where he was going in most drafts, I also thought Hill could bat .260 with 25 HRs and 70 runs/RBIs. The only thing that made his numbers approach my expectations was a trade to the desert. Hill currently sits at .246 with just eight homers. He does have 61 runs and 61 RBIs, so my 70/70 wasn’t too far off. But, yikes, 2009 was a long, long, long time ago.

Mitch Moreland – I thought Moreland would easily hit 20 HR and drive in 80 RBIs and that he could finish top 15 at 1b. Wow, was that wrong. Moreland has 16 HRs and never showed enough skills to get the PT required to reach 80 RBIs (he has just 51). He is not only outside the top 15 1bs, he isn’t even in the top 30.

Brandon Allen – Allen never got the playing time and he was really just a stab in the dark for me. Still, when he has gotten into games, he has done nothing. He has a .200 average and just six homers in 175 ABs.

Juan Miranda – The thought of Miranda having 20+ HR potential is laughable now. Fighting off Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan wasn’t even possible for the slugger who has sluggishly batted just .213 with seven homers in 174 ABs.

Ryan Hanigan, Josh Thole, A.J. Ellis – These guys never got the at bats to do anything. They were decent gambles, but hit just 11 HRs combined.

Mark Ellis, Sean Rodriguez, Eric Young Jr. – Ultimately they didn’t come close to anything resembling a sleeper. Thankfully, you couldn’t have spent much on them. Young did steal some bases, despite having a really hard time actually getting to first base – so there’s that!

Jose Lopez, David Freese – I thought both guys would be cheap enough to make any contributions worthwhile. Freese hasn’t played much because he has been hurt (typical), whereas Lopez hasn’t played much because he sucks (typical). Both have shown signs down the stretch, but were basically worthless throughout the year.

In the second installment of the grading process, it’s helpful to look at those sleepers I, Albert Lang, just nearly missed on – basically guys who were a push. These are players who were almost successful sleepers picks but walked too many, gave up too many HRs or just swung and missed a ton.

Dan Uggla – This is the most miraculous push in the history of the world. After Uggla’s horrendous start to the season, he rebounded to bat .234 but with 35 HRs.

Jimmy Rollins – Consensus had Rollins as a top 5 option. Rollins is 6th at the position. However a bigger pre-draft split was where he should fall overall. I thought Rollins could push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but rest on the low end of each. He had 14 HRs and 28 SBs. We also saw his average stay below .275. If you drafted Rollins in the top 50, you are probably somewhat disappointed.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a tricky player to write about all year. I liked him, but the hype was a little ridiculous. While I would rather have Nick Swisher, I thought Rasmus was capable of hitting .260 with 20-25 HRs and 15 SBs. Petty squabbles in St. Louis and poor health have Rasmus at 14 HRs, five steals and a .235 average. I was clearly wrong on my projection.

Jason Bartlett – I thought Bartlett could get back to batting .275 (didn’t happen: .251), but I also thought he was a good bet to reach 20 – 30 SBs (he has 23). It’s a wash, but with how bad the SS position has been, he’s been a useful figure in 2011.

Nick Swisher – God it is disgusting how dirty good Brian Cashman is – he absolutely stole Swisher from Kenny Williams. Still, the entire fantasy community also seems to sleep on Swish, as he was the 33^rd consensus OF. Well, he is the 31^st OF, so they were closer in terms of ranking.

Gio Gonzalez – I had Gonzalez as the 42^nd best SP, consensus put him around 49, and he will end up about 46^th overall. So maybe I overvalued him…or maybe not.  I predicted a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 200 Ks. Right now, he has bested my ERA prediction (3.41 ERA) and come very close to meeting my WHIP prediction (1.37 WHIP). He has 177 Ks, so he’ll likely fall a tad short of 200.

Will Venable – While, technically, I had Venable ranked higher than most people, I still warned against the hype I saw building. Specifically, I said that his ceiling of a .320 OBP and the amount of balls he swings at out of the zone wouldn’t get him anywhere near the 30 steals he approached last season. Well, he currently sits at 26 – whoops. I did add in the caveat that we could see some weird things with the Padres this year, i.e., that in the absence of any real offense, their players would be running silly and that could artificially buoy Venable’s SB number. So, I was sort of correct in my Venable assessment.

Mark Reynolds – It’s so weird to be wrong about a known commodity. I had Reynolds buried on the draft board (22^nd 3b), whereas consensus had him a bit higher. I believed he was a .240 hitter with 35 HRs and 10 SBs. He has actually batted worse (.222) and has 36 HRs and just 6 SBs, but has come in as the 6^th best 3b for the year. What a dreadful position.

Edwin Jackson – Partly because he was born in Germany, partly because I believed in the Chicago White Sox pitching coaches, I thought Jackson would have a nice year. I expected an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range with 170 Ks. He has fallen short of the Ks (he has just 146) but his ERA has been a nice surprise (3.85). Sure the WHIP is miserable, but he wasn’t that bad of a pitcher.

Chris Iannetta – I had Iannetta as a sleeper for the millionth year in a row, expecting a .250 hitter with 15 HRs (with upside as well). Well, Iannetta has batted just .236 this year but does have 13 HRs. He hasn’t helped at all down the stretch though and has really sputtered out. It would be nice if he batted anything other than eighth, but you have to play the cards you’re dealt.

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.