Fantasy Baseball Advice

Usually on Friday I go over one player who can be looked at keeping in keeper leagues, but the other day in the comments I was asked for some general fantasy baseball keeper league strategy.  A request and dedication, if you will.  For illustration purposes, let’s look at last year’s Chase Utley keeper post.  Go ahead, read it.  This’ll be here when you return.  Welcome back!  Okay, in that post I told you to keep Marmol and Utley.  At the time, Utley was about to have hip surgery and Marmol wasn’t the closer.  In my oversized brain, I figured, hip surgery be damned, Utley would still be a top hitter at a weak position. Which brings me to my first fantasy baseball keeper point:

1. Top hitters at weak positions rule in keepers.

Utley, Mauer, Hanley, et al. are top keepers.  I’m not a fan of drafting Mauer very early on in redrafts.  But in a keeper league, I’m assuming you have him for a lot cheaper than he’ll go in redrafts, especially when considering he went late in 2009 drafts because of back issues.

2. Value is a trump card.

In the above Utley/Marmol example, I knew Marmol would be very cheap on your team because he was nothing but a middle man in 2008.  Though he had the stuff to be the closer in 2009 and Kevin Gregg blocking him — ha!  Are you keeping Marmol over Miguel Cabrera?  Not unless Nurse Ratched just gave you a lobotomy.  Would I have told you last year to keep a 20th round Marmol over, say, a 8th round Vernon Wells?  Yes, I would’ve.  Another example of value as trump card, Derrek Lee in the 6th round or Kendry Morales in the 20th round?  Kendry Morales wins.

3. Try to figure out who your leaguemates are keeping.

Or the inverse of that, who will be available on draft day.  This is sometimes easier said than done, but you should be able to gauge more or less the guys that will be kept.  For instance, if there’s going to be no top 3rd basemen in the draft, it makes Kevin Youkilis in the 3rd round a lot more appealing.

4. When in doubt, keep a hitter.

I’m not opposed to keeping a pitcher or two, but if I could have my druthers — those are MY druthers! — I’d keep hitters.  Same that holds true for redraft leagues holds true for keepers.  Pitchers are unpredictable from year to year.

5. Take a gamble on upside.

Some players have top 50 upside.  Think The Dread Pirate.  Am I gambling on upside over a proven commodity?  No, I’m not.  But if you keep, say, 5 keepers, take 4 proven guys and gamble on one guy to have some upside.

6. Don’t be cute; go for the win this year vs. the future win.

This point couches point number five.  Don’t overload on future talent.  I’m sure Strasburg will be dynamite.  He may even be dy-no-mite.  That doesn’t mean you’re playing 2011 before 2010 even starts, future boy.

Turns out Yahoo’s fantasy baseball doesn’t count the Twins and Tigers game no matter the format.  It’s the Keyser Söze of regular season games, I suppose.  ESPN, on the other hand, does count it.  So that means only one thing.  Pick up everyone from either the Tigers or the Twins, if it could mean a championship for you.  Ryan Raburn?  Yes, please!  Delmon Young?  Of course!  Fu-Te Ni?  Yes, unless you want to get F-U’d royally.

Starting the game are Scott Baker and Rick Porcello, but, at the first sign of trouble, they’ll be lifted.  This makes every starter, except for Sunday’s starters for either team, available.  Manship, Liriano and Robertson et al (that’s not the Israeli airline) could all see action.  Don’t forget possible unlikely heroes if you need any hitting stats.  That’s right, this may be the only time you see me fully endorse picking up Gerald Laird, Matt Tolbert and Jose Morales.  Even Nick Punto.  Well… No, even him.  Most importantly, if your opponent needs any stats at all, block them from getting them.  So if this means owning Matt Guerrier for no reason other than you’re afraid your opponent might get a vulture win and beat you, then own Guerrier, in the non-biblical sense, of course.

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire.  So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week.  You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins.  And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish.  Not too shabby.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?

Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September.  If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August.  Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners.  It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll.  So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is.  I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla).  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:

Tuesday, September 15th

Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. the Mariners in Seattle.

Robinson Tejada – Has 69 Ks in 53 1/3 innings.  Goes vs. the Tigers, who he just beat.  It’s risky because I don’t trust the 2nd time being the charm.  Teams figure a guy out usually, but he could give you some cheap Ks.

Wade LeBlanc – Has two solid back-to-back starts and he faces a K-razy offense (Diamondbacks) in Petco.

Wednesday, September 16th

Doug Davis – Has a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings vs. the Padres and hasn’t given up one earned run in Petco in two years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Has four straight solid starts and a serial killer name.

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t had an embarrassing start since July 8th and he gets the Pirates.

Thursday, September 17th

Justin Masterson – vs. the A’s and I wouldn’t start him here unless you’re in absolute dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Friday, September 18th

Brian Duensing – You’d think I really liked him with the amount I’m talking about him, but he’s worth a flier for a start or two.

Vicente Padilla – He actually just shut out the Giants, which scares me more than it instills confidence, but it’s still a decent match-up.

Saturday, September 19th

Brett Tomko – Shoot me now for suggesting Tomko.

Jason Hammel – Has an ERA around 3 away from Coors and he gets the swing happy Diamondbacks.  This is still a risky start because Chase is a hitters park.

Sunday, September 20th

Paul Maholm – It’s not as great to face the Padres away from Petco, but it’s not that bad either.

Carl Pavano – Gets the Tigers on Sunday and has absolutely owned them this year.  In over 30 innings, he has a 1.48 ERA and 4 wins.  And, just think, you can tell your lady friend you had the cojones to start Pavano.