You’re only as good as the information you have. This can apply to anything in life, but is particularly true when it comes to studying up on prospects for fantasy. Or prospecting, if you will. Players are constantly evolving, particularly those in the minors, and it’s important to keep up with the latest scouting reports, videos, and statistics. One area that’s heavily overlooked with prospects is batted ball profile. The numbers are tough to find, but there’s some intriguing options in the dark corners of the Internet. Yours truly has scoured those dark corners. Actually J-FOH scoured these corners, introduced them to me, and here we are. Today is a very special day. Why? Well, because I’m doing my very best on this fine Sunday to impersonate one Big Magoo. While I certainty can’t do our resident number savant justice; I’ll use his words as a guideline, while we take a look at the batted ball profiles for some of the top players in minor league ball this season. Including some recent graduates like Aaron Judge, Alex Bregman, and Andrew Benintendi.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Rejoice fellow prospectors for Michael Wacha has been slayed and disposed of on the DL with a shoulder injury. Good riddance Wacha, may the rookie nookieing begin. In the immediate aftermath Cards top prospect and K aficionado extraordinaire Alex Reyes was promoted. The early assumption was he’d fill Wacha’s roster spot. That was until he wasn’t. Shortly there after, it broke that he would be used out of the pen rather than take Wacha’s spot. Then Luke Weaver was called up. This made me excited, one because I’m nutty about prospects, two because I own Weaver in a whole shizz ton of leagues, and three because he fits the profile of the rookie starters that have been successful so far this season. What’s that profile Ralph? Control, command, and low walk rates. It’s the love, peace, and chicken grease of pitcher prospecting. Think about it Taillon, Maeda, and most recently Musgrove; the players letting up the least amount of free passes are having the greatest initial success out of the gate. It’s not a coincidence, because talented major league hitters will sit on junk pitches all day, and force you to throw strikes. That’s what Luke Weaver does Gentlemen and five ladies. He throws strikes…. lots of’em. He had 12 total walks in 83 innings at AA and AAA this season. He’s not some Phil Hughes boring control artist either, he brings with him a 10.0 K/9. Weaver keeps the ball in the ballpark too. In fact, he’s only allowed 7 homers across 197 minor league innings. All this to say you should pick him up. Whether you start him on Saturday vs the Cubs is up to your discretion, but there will be other matchups, better matchups. You’ll want him for those.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Back in 2012 a 26 year old Phillies first base prospect by the name of Darin Ruf hit 38 homers while playing for AA affiliate Reading. Ruf never approached a season like that before or since, and quickly washed out as he reached AAA and the majors. Over the seasons that have followed any Reading player with a power surge is looked at with skeptical looks and side eye. Dylan Cozens is the latest in a long line of Phillie farmhands to bear this cross. Over the past week Cozens has accelerated the home run pace of his magical 2016, hitting 6 homers and slashing .360/.429/.1.240. As of Saturday night Cozens’ home run total for the season sits at 32 in just 106 games. I’ve written about Cozens a few times over the past few months, and quite honestly the gaudy offensive numbers are tough to ignore. Prior to the 2016 breakout, Cozens was an intriguing prospect. Built like an NFL tight end, and blessed with raw power and base running ability. Cozens presents raw potential that would entice any dynasty owner to take a second look, but the red flags are there and shouldn’t be ignored. First and foremost, though Cozens has always produced raw power it never materialized until he reached Reading. To say that Cozens success is Reading aided is an understatement. Of his 32 homers he’s only connected for 6 away from FirstEnergy Stadium. The home and away slugging % splits are staggering, as he boast a Bondsian .801 SLG% at home, but a .415 on the road. That’s an absurd difference of .386! Or he’s a full Dee Gordon different at home. Next on the red flag rundown is Cozens long lefthanded swing. While it’s picturesque when it connects for a long fly, it’s down right ugly when he misses, particularly on balls to the outside part of the plate. Look no further than his nearly 30% k rate for evidence. The last, and in some ways, the most alarming of the red flags is Cozens splits vs southpaws. A .307/.391/.677 hitter vs righties, he morphs into Freddy Galvis when a lefty is on the mound, slashing .204/286/.387. Cozens has certainly made improvements this season, but he does come with risk; and even if he’s only a 15/15 threat with some split issues, he’s worth a spot in your minors in dynasties where 100-150 prospects are owned.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Deadline day baby, one of the most exciting and nerve wrecking times for fantasy owners across the land. I’m not going to talk extensively about it the way I did on Wednesday. Mostly because I’m not allowed to write the same post twice. At least as far as I know. Only Tehol’s allowed to do that stuff, but he’s handsome. We call that bubble syndrome, handsome, and really all attractive people in general, live in a bubble. You know who doesn’t live in a bubble, but is built exactly like one? Josh Naylor!!! That’s right A.J. Pro-Preller continues to trade-rape the MLB and horde A-1 prospects the same way your Grandma hordes Precious Moments figurines. This time they traded Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea for Josh Naylor, Luis Castillo, Carter Capps, and Jarred Cosart. We have no need to get into Cosart or Capps, but Naylor is interesting, Castillo less so. The Marlins selected Naylor in the first round, 12th overall, in last year’s draft. So far the returns have been promising, but let’s be clear Naylor is an “unathletic” DH/1B type. He was drafted as a 1B/OF coming out of the prep circuit, but his future lies as a first sacker. He’s been billed as a power first guy, but his power at this point has only been middling. He’s surprisingly swiped 10 bags though. The hope is the young Naylor develops the power stroke and eventually matures into a 25-30 homer corner guy. I’m not as hopeful as some about that happening.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Oh don’t worry I’ll get into my take on top catching prospect Francisco Mejia, and three others moving from the Indians system to the Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy. Feel free to post rumors, deals, hopes, and dreams, etc in the comments. Let’s talk specs and trades y’all!
Oh the deadline, where championships are dreamed about, and futures are mortgaged. Is there ever a time where the worlds of redraft and dynasty collide more? You have your redraft owners hoping their closers don’t lose their jobs, or that their hitters, and pitchers are moved to better surroundings. The dynasty owners are worried about those same things, but also hoping their blocked higher minors prospects get moved to greener pastures with opportunities waiting with a big league club. It’s also a time when veterans are moved out to make way for those potential future stars waiting in the wings. It’s a busy time for your humble Prospector. I have a lot of thoughts about prospects on the move, some got the call, some got the other kind of call, and some are waiting for one or the other. Obviously I’m alluding to a call from their doctors regarding their “tests results”….Actually I might have just had a flashback to that time I wrote for the Des Moines Medical Journal. Corn farm injuries are gruesome people.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I got in a bit of a tiff in one of my dynasty leagues over a trade offer involving Erick Fedde. I’m one of the types that pretty much negs every first offer or counter I get below market value. IMO you’re crazy not to. I also refuse to give up multiple MLB pieces for single prospects unless the talent level is a significant potential increase. The offer was Erick Fedde for Brandon McCarthy and Mike Leake. It’s a 10 team NL only dynasty, he’s competing, I’m a prospect kennel full of young pups with big paws. In other words I’m in dead last and I’m selling all MLB players that are over 32 or below star level (McCarthy and Leake). With that said mid-rotation starters are more valuable in AL/NL only formats. Long story short I snapped back, spelled Fedde incorrectly 3-4 times, and we ended negotiations. Thought I had to share if I planned on writing about him. So random league mate, here you go an ode to Erick Fedde.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Unless you’re a greasy teenager or the warden of Shawshank Penitentiary breakouts are good. Particularly when we’re talking about athletes, and even more so when we’re talking about up and coming athletes. Heck, I can still remember when I first saw young Ariel Winter blossom from younger sister on Modern Family to busty sexpot. After writing that last sentence I feel like I’m ghostwriting Tehol’s posts again. Who knows maybe I am, throw in a Dom Brown reference and a couple of lords and BOOM you got a Tehol post. That’s not why we’re here though. No we’re here to talk about the breakout stars of the minor leagues. The guys jumping up, and in some cases, into the top 100. It’s a great time to review this for a few reasons. Chief among them is three and a half months of data to crunch. Not to mention a plethora of updated top 100 have hit the streets. So who am I lovin, who do I want to be huggin? Let’s get into it.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Scatter brained, unfocused, all over the place, just a few terms you might use to describe this hodge-podge of prospect analysis I bring to you here on this the lord’s day. We’re going to break this into three parts, first part will be a little analysis of the recent transactions involving Yulieski Gourriel and Anderson Espinoza, then we’ll jump into some updates on 2016 draft picks, now that they’re roughly a month into their professional careers, and we’ll close with some updates on international signings. If you’re looking for more than this I suggest you seek wisdom from those smarter than I. Yes, those people exist, roughly 79% of you reading this fall into that category in fact.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Whatta day, here’s how it started. I woke up around 5 am, drank lots of coffee, did work stuff, got word around 8:15 that Alex Bregman would get the call this weekend and was set to join the surging Astros in Seattle. I then proceeded to pat myself on the back, throw a finger to the haters, and all the people who lived in the buildings I was prospecting in front of that called the cops on me when I was trying to make some money to feed my daughter. It was show and prove time for mi numero uno perspectiva fantasia. No longer would readers lament my existence while they starred down a dead spot on their rosters. For it was Bregman day and it was glorious. Then POOF it wasn’t, as A.J. Hinch decided to open his fat mouth and tell everyone that numero uno perspectiva fantasia Alex Bregman , would NOT be joining the team in Seattle. He did offer one assurance, Bregman could help the team down the stretch. Ahhhhh, hi A.J., my name’s Ralph, NO SH**. I’ve only been saying that forever. Doesn’t matter, he’s coming up. Maybe not this weekend, but maybe next week. Hell, maybe Monday! I’m the captain of the SS prospector, and I will sink this ship before I change course! Knowing I was writing this post for today, I thought “how appropriate everything is coming together for Ralph, The Summer of Ralph!!!”. Meh, enough of that let’s talk about the rookies that will give your redraft team a boost in the second half.Please, blog, may I have some more?
We all have our things, Grey has Giancarlo and mustaches, Smokey has bullpens and go-go bars, and I have pantsuited women and over aged power prospects. What can I say there’s just something about a professional lady that gets the blood flowing. Same goes for mid-20’s hitters in the minors with the boom-boom. I drafted Adam Duvall everywhere in re-draft for that reason, and there’s a new old ass prospect to fill the void in my heart. This hunk of thunderstick goes by the name of Daniel Palka, and he’s a newly minted AAA outfielder and cleanup hitter for the prospect flush Twins. In his AAA debut Thursday night Palka went yard twice as the Red Wings downed the Iron Pigs 8-7 in a slugfest. Palka entered the season in non-prospect territory, not making Baseball America’s prospect bible, and not appearing on any organizational top 30 list for the Twins or Diamondbacks (his previous employer). He strikes-out a ton, 29ish% k rates over the last couple of years, but he also walks a ton, never walking at a clip lower than 8% at any one level. My real interest in Palka isn’t his path to the high minors or even his glorious walk rates, but his hot steaming power. Power that’s produced a 25 homer campaign in 2014, a 29 homer campaign in 2015, and a projected 35+ homer campaign this season.Please, blog, may I have some more?