Fantasy Baseball Advice

Gerrit Cole | RHP, Pirates | Born:  9/8/1990

As the first overall selection in the 2011 draft, signed out of UCLA to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a bonus worth $8 million, Gerrit Cole has arrived in pro baseball with large expectations.  The hype isn’t without merit, though.  Cole’s heater tops out at 102 mph and he counters with a deadly slider and a plus change.  His arsenal is impressive, and at an athletic 6-4, 220, Cole’s frame projects wonderfully.  He’s simply oozing with ace-potential.  Trevor Bauer, his teammate at UCLA, has captured most of the fantasy-prospect-to-watch headlines this spring, and based on his proximity to the majors, rightfully so.  Looking long-term, however, Cole figures to be the safer bet to reach and sustain fantasy ace status.  The major factor holding him back for the time being is command.

The aforementioned 100+ mph fastball isn’t quite as precise as Pirates hope it soon will be.  For now, Pittsburgh has Cole working in the mid-90′s, focusing on hitting spots while working out some flaws in his delivery.  Cole made his full-season debut last week in the Florida State League for High-A Bradenton and was impressive:  4 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 H, 1 R.  The most noteworthy nugget from that start being he recorded all 12 outs via grounder or whiff – good contact was tough to come by for the opposition.  Cole’s second appearance was not nearly as successful as he surrendered four hits (two homers), walked two, and gave up four runs in just three innings of work.  He drew four more strikeouts, which is nice to see, but the outing was otherwise void of good news.  If nothing else, it serves to remind us that the 21-year-old is still a work-in-progress.  But do keep track of Gerrit Cole.  When he learns to harness his tremendous repertoire, he’ll push through the minors quickly and it won’t be long until Cole is making his presence known in the fantasy game.  A 2013 arrival seems most likely, but should he figure things out a bit sooner, the Pirates could use him in September.

Oscar Taveras | OF, Cardinals | Born:  6/19/1992

It doesn’t really get any more “unknown” than this.  That’s Oscar Taveras on third in that screencap.  But as the Cardinals’ broadcast would have you know, that’s “Minor League Guy”.  No matter what you call him, number 91 there is a damn good prospect and he should be approaching your fantasy horizons this year.  Taveras spent 2011 at Low-A Quad Cities where he hit .386/.444/.584 with 40 XBH in 347 trips to the plate.  The Cardinals chose to skip High-A and promoted their 19-year-old, Dominican-born outfield prospect to Double-A Springfield, where he’s already blasted two homers and knocked in 10 through 41 PA.  Taveras has outstanding hands at the plate.  He makes great contact and has very few holes in his swing.  With Carlos Beltran’s contract set to expire following the 2013 season, the Cardinals hope to slot Taveras in right field for full-time duties beginning in 2014.  I imagine, though, that we’ll see him up in some capacity before then.  A September call up for Taveras, too, could be in order if he’s able to maintain his hot start in the Texas League.

Razzball’s weekly look around the minors is back for 2012.  In case you’ve forgotten, this is where we’ll highlight notable performances by fantasy-relevant prospects.  We’ll keep track of any minor league storylines which might carry fantasy significance here, too.  In this first edition we’ll get things started with baseball’s top prospect, Bryce Harper, who’s off to a slow start at Triple-A Syracuse.  Harper’s collected just two XBH’s in 29 trips to the plate through Friday.  It’s his first taste of Triple-A pitching, so the early struggles aren’t necessarily surprising.  Harper has the tools to adjust and turn things around in a hurry, though.  I suspect he’ll heat things up before long.

Mike Trout | OF, Angels - Like Harper, Trout is getting his first action at the Triple-A level.  Unlike Harper, though, Trout is off to a blazing start.  Through 40 PA’s, Trout’s posted a slash line at .389/.425/.556 to go along with three stolen bases.  If this keeps up, Trout could push his way through to the Angels’ outfield before mid-season.

Trevor Bauer | SP, D’backs – Bauer’s posted a 0.00 ERA and a 15.19 K/9 through two Double-A starts.  He’s walking a few too many batters, but he’s better than Josh Collmenter right now and I can’t imagine the D’Backs will let Collmenter linger for too much longer if he continues to get pounded.  If you have room to stash him, Bauer might be worth a speculative scoop already.

Dylan Bundy | SP, Orioles - Bundy has thrown just six innings as a pro:  six perfect innings.  The fourth overall selection by the Orioles last June is backing up the hype in the early going as he’s been utterly unhittable in his two appearances.  Some are wondering if Bundy will be ready to debut in the bigs by year’s end.  Reason tells me no.  A few more perfect outings will have me believing otherwise, though.

Matt Adams | 1B, Cardinals – Lance Berkman is no beacon of health and there’s already cause for concern with regard to his well-being early on in 2012.  Should Puma land on the DL, Matt Adams would be a candidate to fill that void.  After an impressive spring in big league camp, Adams has continued to smash the ball in Triple-A.  Through 33 PA’s he’s slashing .419/.455/.806 with three homers and a stolen base.

James Paxton | SP, Mariners - Paxton is one of a few high-ceiling arms in the Seattle system, but of that group, he’s off to the most noteworthy start.  Through two Double-A outings, Paxton has a 0.87 ERA and a 14.81 K/9.

A.J. Griffin | SP, Athletics - Griffin has allowed just four baserunners through his first two outings (11 IP) while striking out 16 and posting a 0.00 ERA.  He’s expanded his repertoire for 2012 and it’s paying dividends so far at the Double-A level.

Manny Machado | SS, Orioles – The O’s 19-year-old shortstop didn’t take long to adjust to Double-A.  Having already smacked two homers, Machado has the early edge on the Rangers’ Jurickson Profar in the battle of AA teenage shortstops.

Anthony Rizzo | 1B, Cubs – Rizzo is having no trouble with PCL pitching so far as he’s already blasted three homers and knocked in ten through 33 PA’s.  Unfortunate for Rizzo is that Bryan LaHair is off to an equally impressive start with the Cubs.  Rizzo will need to stay hot while LaHair cools off considerably if he’s to reach Chicago by mid-season.

Kolten Wong | 2B, Cardinals – After skipping High-A, Wong has been impressive in his Double-A debut.  Through 29 trips to the plate he’s hit .440/.517/.760.  He’ll have to improve quite a bit defensively if he’s to supplant either Daniel Descalso or Tyler Green at 2B in St. Louis this year, but his advanced approach to hitting should allow him to be ready for full time duties with the Cardinals a year from now.

Anthony Rendon | 3B, Nationals – The highly touted third base prospect in the Nationals’ system fractured his ankle in the first week of the season at High-A.  He’ll miss the next couple months.

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America

2012 (3) | 2011 (1) | 2010 (16) | 2009 (11) | 2008 (24) | 2007 (11)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [71-91] AL Central

AAA: [79-63] Pacific Coast League – Omaha

AA: [73-64] Texas League – Northwest Arkansas

A+: [66-72] Carolina League –Wilmington

A: [65-74] Midwest League – Kane County

R: [33-43] Pioneer League – Idaho Falls

The Run Down

Even after graduating guys like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy, the Royals system is still flush with future stars.  Ownership has granted baseball development personnel a generous budget over recent years for both the draft and the international markets, and it must be satisfying for Royals fans to see those investments paying off.  Still, I doubt we’ll see the same arrival of highly touted prospects in 2012 that we saw in 2011.  It seems more likely that this group will reach fantasy relevance from 2013-2015.  I suppose Mike Montgomery has a shot to make an impact with KC later this year, but I’m confident that the Royals’ back-end starters will hold up.  Realistically, relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera might be the best positioned guy of the group to crack your fantasy roster this year.  The kid touches 100 with his heater and could certainly work his way into some save opportunities if Broxton/Holland/Crow aren’t effective.

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Saguros

Nate Adcock (RHP); Jeremy Jeffress (RHP); Brendan Lafferty (LHP); Bryan Paukovits (RHP); Christian Colon (SS); Clint Robinson (1B); Wil Myers (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Eric Hosmer (1B); Mike Moustakas (3B); Danny Duffy (LHP); Aaron Crow (RHP); Tim Collins (LHP); Salvador Perez (C); Johnny Giavotella (2B); Louis Coleman (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Wil Myers | OF:

After a disappointing year in Double-A, Myers will return to the Texas League, but he’ll make his Triple-A debut at some point in 2012.  And when he arrives in the PCL, expect exciting numbers.  Myers has the power and patience at the plate to post monstrous figures and he could certainly blossom into a top-tier outfielder in the bigs.  All reasons why he came in at #15 in my Top 25 Prospects for 2013 & Beyond.

Christian Colon | SS:

Colon will join Myers in Double-A to begin 2012, where he’ll hope to improve on his poor 2011 season at the plate.  The 2010 first-rounder makes good contact, and given his .271 BABIP last year, I’m thinking he’s in for much improved 2012 campaign.  With Alcides Escobar blocking shortstop, however, Colon will need to make the transition to second base if he’s to be a regular with the Royals any time soon.

Pitchers

Mike Montgomery | LHP – SP:

Montgomery should arrive in the majors at some point this year, and he’ll be worth owning in most formats when he does, but his real fantasy impact likely won’t happen ’til 2013.  A plus fastball and a plus change have him projecting as a number two starter, but if he can work out some command issues, he could be an ace in Kansas City.

Kelvin Herrera | RHP – RP:

With a filthy fastball-curveball combo, Herrera earned a spot in the Royals’ bullpen this spring.  And given the uncertainty surrounding the late-inning guys in KC, Herrera might be a sleeper to grab some saves if the others falter.  Jeff Zimmerman also thinks highly of him and noted him in his Royals preview for Razzball back in February.  Certainly a guy to monitor – Herrera, that is.  Although, Zimmerman might be a good guy to monitor too over at Royals Review.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Cheslor Cuthbert | 3B:

A lousy finish to 2011 marred what could have been an outstanding year in Low-A for Cuthbert.  He’ll move up to High-A for 2012 where he’ll look to sustain impressive figures for a full season.  Should things go well in Wilmington, Cuthbert could be making his Double-A debut before he turns 20.  With plus power potential from third base, he’s certainly a guy to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.

Bubba Starling | OF:

I normally wouldn’t bother mentioning a guy who hasn’t yet played pro ball, especially a high school draftee.  Nonetheless, Starling is worth noting.  The Royals will be patient with him – he’s beginning 2012 in extended spring training, but he’ll likely join Low-A Kane County once the weather warms.  The ceiling here is enormous, though, which is why I ranked him #12 in my Top 25 Prospects for 2013 & Beyond.

Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi | RHP – SP:

Odorizzi has a deceptive fastball, which sneaks up on hitters thanks to an effortless delivery.  His secondary stuff, however, has room for improvement.  He’ll head back to Northwest Arkansas for 2012 to refine his repertoire, but he should reach Triple-A this year.  He’ll make for a nice number three starter once he’s arrived and settled in.

Chris Dwyer | LHP – SP:

Dwyer has all sorts of delivery concerns and he’s headed back to Double-A to try to sort those out.  After posting a 5.60 ERA over a full season in the Texas League last year, the Royals would like to see him show significantly more command before they test him in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  Dwyer relies on his fastball to set up a nice 12-6 breaker, but when he cannot locate the former the effect of the latter is lost entirely.  Still, the lefty could fit in as a mid-rotation guy if he can work out some kinks.

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America

2012 (15) | 2011 (2) | 2010 (9) | 2009 (6) | 2008 (8) | 2007 (15)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [89-73] NL East

AAA: [78-65] International League – Gwinnett

AA: [61-79] Southern League – Mississippi

A+: [60-78] Carolina League – Lynchburg

A: [60-80] South Atlantic League – Rome

R: [39-29] Appalachian League – Danville

The Run Down

The Braves have maintained a top-tier farm system over the past few years, and it’s still a quality system, but it’s only a few graduates away from looking rather depleted.  Three of Atlanta’s top four prospects (Teheran, Delgado, Simmons) should push through to the bigs this year.  A couple more top ten guys should see significant time in Atlanta, too.  Teheran and Delgagdo are battling for a starting pitching role.  Both have outstanding fantasy potential.  Pastornicky and Simmons are battling for the shortstop role.  Both are rather boring for fantasy.  There’s little intrigue beyond that, for now.

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Saguros

Billy Bullock (RHP); Erik Cordier (RHP); Sean Gilmartin (LHP); J.J. Hoover (RHP); Christian Bethancourt (C); Phil Gosselin (2B); Todd Cunningham (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Freddy Freeman (1B); Mike Minor (LHP); Craig Kimbrel (RHP); Brandon Beachy (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Tyler Pastornicky | SS:

Pastornicky will open the season as full-time shortstop for the Braves.  But as Grey noted yesterday in his Rookies to Target post, he’s unlikely to be of much help outside of NL-Only formats.  Pastornicky is, at best, a bench player on any other major league roster.  Don’t expect too much out of him.

Andrelton Simmons | SS:

Simmons is likely the shortstop of the future for Atlanta, but he’s not quite as ready as Pastornicky.  His hitting will never be spectacular, but his glove will allow him to start in the bigs for a while.  There’s still a shred of hope that he’ll start the start the season in Atlanta, but it doesn’t seem likely.  Should Pastorinicky struggle – and I suspect he will – Simmons could be up for the second half or sooner.  Still, he won’t be an exciting fantasy option.

Pitchers

Julio Teheran | RHP – SP:

The Braves likely won’t make a decision on the fifth starter for another week as they don’t need a fifth starter ’til April 11.  It’s between Teheran and Delgado at this point, and either would be a nice SP option in any format.  Teheran is the more exciting prospect, though.  At just 20 years old, he dominated Triple-A last year and he has the potential to be an ace in the big leagues.

Randall Delgado | RHP – SP:

Delgado projects more like a second or third starter.  And although he doesn’t quite have the ceiling of Teheran, he’s still very much in the running for the available starter’s role and he could be equally effective for 2012.  Monitor this situation.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Joey Terdoslavich | 1B:

Terdoslavich posted an .867 OPS in a full season at High-A last year.  The switch-hitter will start 2012 in Double-A, but the Braves are likely to take their time with him as he hasn’t yet settled in defensively.  He projects to hit 20+ homers with a solid AVG in the majors.  If he stinks, though, his name will surely inspire much turd-wordplay.  Or turdplay.  Disgusting.  Don’t play with turds, people!

Pitchers

Zeke Spruill | RHP – SP:

2011 was a breakout year for Spruill.  He worked low in the zone consistently ended up posting a 1.01 WHIP in 130 IP at High-A.  He’ll start 2012 in Double-A.  If efficient ways continue for Spruill, he could blossom into a nice  innings-eating starter in the majors.

J.J. Hoover | RHP – RP:

Hoover should arrive sometime in 2012, but the Braves seem intent on using him out of the bullpen, effectively eliminating all fantasy value.  He projects like a backend innings-eater, but the organization is flush with young pitching talent, so the opportunity to start probably won’t come.

Arodys Vizcaino | RHP – SP/RP:

Vizcaino underwent Tommy John surgery last week, in case you hadn’t heard.

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America

2012 (11) | 2011 (3) | 2010 (1) | 2009 (4) | 2008 (1) | 2007 (1)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [91-71] AL East

AAA: [80-62] International League – Durham

AA: [65-74] Southern League – Montgomery

A+: [64-75] Florida State League – Charlotte

A: [77-63] Midwest League – Bowling Green

A(ss): [37-39] New York-Penn League – Hudson Valley

The Run Down

It’s no secret that the Rays’ player development systems are tremendous.  And when reviewing these Rays prospects, it’s important to keep that in mind.  They’re so adept at churning out major league talent that it’s hard to imagine even the fringy guys not panning out.  It’s also no secret that Matt Moore is for real.  Of all the prospects arriving this year, I’m comfortable saying his impact will be the most profound – perhaps by a wide margin.  He makes everyone else in this post look kinda boring, but I assure you there are other bright spots in this Tampa Bay system.  As there will be next year, and the next year, and th… You get the idea.

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Saguros

Shane Dyer (RHP); Marquis Fleming (RHP); Adam Liberatore (LHP); Tim Beckham (3B); Tyler Bortnick (2B); Mikie Mahtook (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP); Desmond Jennings (OF); Jake McGee (LHP); Alex Cobb (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Brandon Guyer | OF:

At 26-years-old, Guyer has little left to prove in the minors.  48 XBH (14 homers) in 443 trips to the plate with Durham reflects his readiness.  Guyer has the tools and makeup of a regular in the bigs.  It’s only a matter of time, now, ’til his opportunity arrives.

Tim Beckham | SS:

Beckham was the #1 overall selection in the 2008 draft, but he’s been a disappointment thus far.  Despite his struggles, he has been able to push his way through to Triple-A and 2011 was his best professional year to-date – still not great, though:  .271/.328/.408.  At 22-years-old, I suppose there’s still time for him to come around.  I find it unlikely, however, that he’ll ever be much more than a bench player in the majors.  Beckham will open 2012 back in Durham.

Pitchers

Matt Moore | RHP – SP:

Moore ranks as my top prospect for 2012 and you can read that post here.  Just yesterday, I happily overpaid for him in an auction for a weekly H2H.  His RP eligibility allows me to free up an extra SP slot – one which I’ll exploit with 2-start pickups off the wire.  I hate closers, anyway.

Alex Torres | LHP – SP:

Torres has already pitched some high-leverage innings with the Rays late last season and he’s ready to return to big league action for 2012.  Unfortunately, though, Tampa’s rotation is too crowded to accommodate.  Torres will open 2012 in Triple-A, instead.  A filthy fastball-changeup combo helped him lead the International League in strikeouts last season.  He’d likely be the first option if the big club has a need.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Hak-Ju Lee | SS:

I recently ranked Lee at #25 in my Top 25 Prospects for 2013 & Beyond post.  His defense is major league-ready now, and I’m confident his bat will be ready by 2013. The Rays could use help at short, so don’t expect them to be overly patient with Lee.

Mikie Mahtook | OF:

Mahtook, a first-round selection in last June’s draft, signed late and made his pro debut – an impressive one – in the Arizona Fall League.  The LSU product is advanced enough to start 2012 in High-A and he should move quickly from there.  Still, don’t expect to see him in Tampa ’til 2014.

Pitchers

Chris Archer | RHP – SP:

Archer will open 2012 with Durham and he’s widely thought to be arriving in Tampa at some point this year.  I’m a little more skeptical.  Stuff-wise, he’s certainly capable of blossoming into a frontend starter, but control issues are holding him back.  He needs to develop an improved feel for his delivery if he’s to succeed in the majors and he hasn’t shown enough in that regard for me to believe that he will.  Dangerous guy if he gets it together, though.

Alex Colome | RHP – SP:

Colome delivers an effortless mid-90′s sinker and counters with a nice change and a work-in-progress slider.  Like Archer, he can be wild at times, but the Rays are confident he’ll develop into a quality mid-rotation starter.  I believe them.  A 2013 arrival seems likely.