Fantasy Baseball Advice

Philadelphia Phillies 2009 Minor League Review
Overall Farm Rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (12) | 2008 (22) | 2007 (21) | 2006 (22) | 2005 (20) | 2004 (21)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [93 – 69] NL East
AAA: [71 – 73] International League
AA: [75 – 67] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 69] Florida League
A: [78 – 58] South Atlantic
A(ss): [42 – 34] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [31 – 28] Gulf League

The Run Down
What an offseason for the Phillies. Trading Cliff Lee for a handful of prospects, which is what they gave up for him, and then trading to get Halladay. Here is Grey’s review of the Halladay trade and the other moves made during those days. The signing of Placido Polanco to play third base, albeit, a blahtastic move, it’s just as good as resigning Pedro Feliz. I am not going to defend the trade, but having just Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor, Drabek, and Travis d’Arnaud as your only top prospects doesn’t look bad, but it still doesn’t look great. The players they gave up for Halladay (Taylor, Drabek, and d’Arnaud) aren’t necessarily replaced by the Lee trade, but they provide some high-ceiling chips (Aumont and Gillies). Plus, the Phillies know they are going to have Halladay for a few more years. Lee only has one year left on his contract and is a fly ball pitcher.

With just Domonic Brown and J.C. Ramirez as your top prospects, the Phillies are now lacking depth that they built the last two years. With the roster they have as of right now, they are playing for today and sacrificing a bit for tomorrow. Salary issues are going to start rising for them sooner rather than later, not to mention a top heavy rotation (Blanton or Happ is you number three starter).

Graduating Prospects
#9 – (LHP) J.A. Happ

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions
Pitchers – #29 Michael Cisco; #19 Edgar Garcia; Scott Mathieson; Michael Schwimer
Hitters – (C) Tuffy Gosewisch; (SS) Troy Hanzawa; #1 (RF) Domonic Brown; (LF) Steve Susdorf

Players of Interest for 2010
All player rankings are from Baseball America 2009.

Hitters
Tyson Gillies
Went over him when I did the Mariners’ Minor League Review a month or so ago. This review has both Tyson Gillies and Aumont.

#1 Domonic Brown | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .299/.377/.504 | 395 AB | 44 XBH | 14 HR | .205 ISO | 23/10 SB/CS | 86:49 K:BB | .356 BABIP | 43.8 GB% | 18.6 LD% | 37.5 FB%
A broken finger cost Brown about of month of playing time last year, but, in the time he had, his numbers were impressive. Playing in the hitter-friendly environment of the Florida league, Brown laced the ball all around the field. When he was promoted to Double-A, he held his own slashing .279/.346/.456 in 147 AB. At just 21, he is still probably at least another year out from making major contributions to the Phillies at the major league level. His swing produces above-average power and he has above-average speed. Think the possibility of a 20/20 guy in his prime with the upside of 30/30. If all goes well in 2010, he’ll see a September call-up. His upside in 2011 would be Nolan Reimold in 2009, just to put something out there.

John Mayberry Jr. | RF | AAA | 25 | .256/.332/.456 | 316 AB | 35 XBH | 13 HR | .200 ISO | 94:34 K:BB | .325 BABIP | 39.4 GB% | 17.7 LD% | 42.9 FB%
He’s a little old to be on most prospects lists and I know he received some extended major league time this past year. However, with a career line of .255/.331/.469 and an ISO of .214 in 2306 AB in the minors, Mayberry may be regulated to, at best, a fourth outfield spot. With the aging Raul Ibanez and the potential for Victorino to be riding the DL with another hamstring issue, Mayberry could provide short stints where he is ownable in deeper leagues. Just remember, he would be on your team for power, not for anything else.

Pitchers
Phillipe Aumont
See Phillipe Aumont’s Scouting the Unknown article from September.

#11 Antonio Bastardo | LHP | R/A+/AA/AAA | 23 | 9.3 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 54 1/3 IP | 2.15 ERA | 2.49 FIP | .94 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .270 BABIP | 40.1 GB% | 13.6 GB% | 42.9 FB%
John Sickels calls him Antonio “Inglourious” Bastardo, clever, but let’s be thankful that Chris Berman doesn’t cover much baseball. Bastardo has the fastball to be in the majors right now, but his breaking ball(s) aren’t consistent enough to be a starter. He also has the injury history to wary of getting sucked into any hype surround him. He may end up in the ‘pen as a long reliever in 2010. However, he could suffice as a fifth starter too. Just don’t expect much from him as his ground ball rates are too low to succeed in Philadelphia. Look for him to start in Triple-A in 2010.

#22 Drew Carpenter | RHP | AAA | 24 | 6.9 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 156 IP | 3.35 ERA | 4.14 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1 HR/9 | .313 BABIP | 39.4 GB% | 20.7 LD% | 35.8 FB%
Every time I look at his numbers I want to discard him and forget that I ever contemplated his name. Carpenter doesn’t get enough ground balls to succeed in Philadelphia, especially with average stuff. If he was playing for San Diego, Grey would be all over him. He may be a Quad-A player that gets some spot starts throughout the year. Don’t be surprise to see this name floated around in a minor trade later this season. He could provide marginal value with a few spot starts or quality injury insurance.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#15 Anthony Gose | CF | A | 18 | .259/.323/.353 | 510 AB | 35 XHB | 2 HR | .094 ISO | 76/20 SB/CS | 110:35 K:BB | .338 BABIP | 63.9 GB% | 14.1 LD% | 21.3 FB%
60 yards in 6.5 seconds. Plus-plus arm in center. 76 steals. 19 years old today. Short sentences are terrible and I humbly apologize, but look at those numbers. Alright, avoid that pesky little slash line. Playing with kids two years older than him probably has more impact on those numbers than his talent would indicate. His speed is comparable to Dee Gordon, a shortstop over in the Dodgers farm system. Some scouts think his swing could produce 20 homers in a season, but no time soon. Steals, man, that is what Mr. Gose can provide, and awesome defense.

Pitchers
I really like Fratus and Flande, but they are too young to be in the above section. Their ground ball rates are excellent, they gave up only a few homers and they don’t walk many (with Fratus the better of the two).

Justin de Fratus | RHP | A | 21| 8.3 K/9 | 1.3 BB/9 | 110 IP | 3.19 ERA | 2.66 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | .2 HR/9 | .335 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 25.5 FB%
Like I said above, I really like Fratus. His command is impeccable, his strikeout rates are good, the ball stays on the ground for the most part and his FIP shows that he pitched even better than the numbers suggest. One thing to note, he was used as both a starter and a reliever, pitching much better as a reliever, 1.58 ERA (46 IP) vs. 4.34 (64 IP) ERA as a starter. His pitches tail off, in terms of effectiveness, as the game progresses. If his stamina is increased, he could be a great fourth or fifth pitcher for the Phillies by eating innings. However, as a reliever, his value is greatly reduced and would be more effective as a two inning stopgap to finish a game. If he pitches well again at High-A and Double-A, I am sure I’ll be pimping him.

Yohan Flande | LHP | A+/AA | 23 | 6.9 K/9 | 2.7 BB/9 | 152 2/3 IP | 3.48 ERA | 3.50 FIP | 1.30 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .323 BABIP | 52.1 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 29.8 FB%
Flande has a great changeup and an average fastball and curve. His upside is a fifth starter, but a long relief role or a lefty out of the pen used for match-ups look more likely. Just a name to log and not expect great things from.

#16 Vance Worley | RHP | AA | 21 | 5.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 5.34 ERA | 4.53 FIP | 1.38 WHIP| 1 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 41.2 GB%| 14.4 LD% | 40.4 FB%
I don’t really like Worley. But I am sure there are few fans out there that will want to know about him. To quote Baseball America, “Worley doesn’t figure to rack up big strikeout counts.” Well, with a ground ball rate of 41% and a fly-ball rate of 40%, his future doesn’t look too promising, especially in Philadelphia. At just 21, Worley has plenty of time to improve his game, especially since most 21 year old players are, at best, High-A if not Single-A ball. He should return to Double-A and see if he can improve his home run rates and this ratios. Otherwise, Triple-A may be where he flames out.

Boston Red Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (13) | 2008 (2) | 2007 (9) | 2006 (8) | 2005 (21) | 2004 (23)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 57] AL East
AAA: [61 – 82] International League
AA: [67 – 74] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 72] Carolina League
A: [73 – 65] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [45 – 30] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [26 – 27] Gulf League

The Run Down
The junior Evil Empire has no reason to complain this off-season. Spending millions replacing Jason Bay (with Mike Cameron), adding Lackey to sure up their rotation, buying a “better” shortstop (who will regress and make BoSox fans upset) and taking the best defensive third baseman (Adrian Beltre) off the market, Boston has taken its focus a bit off of their farm system. The graduations of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury in the past has sapped the top end talent out of their system in 2009. Not to mention, the acquisition of Victor Martinez (trading Hagadon, Masterson, and Bryan Price to Cleveland) further emptied some of their depth. Furthermore, the current top prospect prospect (Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland) going into 2010 is still a season or more away from helping in the majors. However, if Keith Law is to be believed, the Red Sox have the second overall farm system in 2010. This is based mainly on Boston having seven top 100 prospects. They have some nice arms with high upside, and some toolsy fielders, but many of those players are young and still need to prove themselves. 2010 will be a season of truth for several prospects in the minors, not to mention if they can keep up with their rival Evil Empire.

Graduating Prospects
#4 – (RHP) Dan Baird

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Fox
Pitchers – #6 Casey Kelly; Randor Bierd; #26 Richard Lentz; Chris Province; Dustin Richardson
Hitters – #15 (C) Luis Exposito; Jose Iglesias; #13 Ryan Kalish

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#1 – Lars Anderson | 1B | AA | 21 | .233/.328/.345 | 447 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .112 ISO | 114:63 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 54.8 GB% | 13 LD% | 32.2 FB%
Lars struggled more than words can express in 2009. His ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates are close to his career rates (54.2 GB%, 15.9 LD% | 29.5 FB% in 1613 AB), but his batting average on balls in play went from a career level of .351 to .296. These numbers would project him to be below average power hitting first baseman. He battled through a hamstring injury in the late summer causing him to miss some playing time at the end of the season. Furthermore, he started the season with a back injury that he played through. Many ‘perts are giving him a mulligan on the 2009 season, but he very well come have met his ceiling, or nearing his ceiling. The mid-summer months were his best, but nothing impressive from a first baseman. He’ll be 22 in 2010 and still has the potential to shine. Don’t be shocked to see him back at Double-A in 2010.

#13 Ryan Kalish | RF | A+/AA | 21 | .279/.364/.457 | 506 AB | 24 2B | 18 HR | .178 ISO | 21/6 SB/CS | 107:68 K:BB | .317 BABIP | 47 GB% | 14.8 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Kalish stayed in High-A long enough to tally 115 at-bats and showing that he needed a promotion. Upon reaching Double-A, the homers started coming (13 in 391 AB). He didn’t hit the ball hard as often as I would like (league average LD% is 18%), the walks are fairly impressive. With the potential to be a 20/20 hitter, Kalish looks like a Grady Sizemore in the making (and he played in CF at Double-A as Josh Reddick was playing RF). Look for him to start the year in Triple-A.

#5 – Josh Reddick | RF | AA | 22 | .277/.352/.520 | 256 AB | 17 2B | 14 HR | .243 ISO | 62:30 K:BB | .310 BABIP | 36.2 GB% | 14.4 LD% | 49.5 FB%
Reddick did have 71 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket, but they were utterly terrible as his slash line shows .127/.190/.183. Today, Reddick and Kalish are, and should be, equally ranked. Reddick has the potential for more power, especially with a much higher fly ball rate (49.5% versus 38.2%). If he didn’t struggle this year at Triple-A, it could have been feasible that he started in the big leagues this year. He has a rocket of an arm (41 outfield assists pre-2009) and adequate defense. With J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron aging, the Red Sox have some nice in-house outfield options. He should also be in Triple-A to start the 2010 season.

Pitchers
#2 – Michael Bowden | RHP | AAA | 22 | 6.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 3.13 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .260 BABIP | 31.1 GB% | 19.5 LD% | 44.6FB%
Scouting the Unknown lays outs Michael Bowden pretty well. My opinions of him haven’t changed since mid-July. Matter-of-fact, looking at his peripheral stats, I like him even less, especially with the terrible ground ball rate. The AL East hitters will feast on Mr. Bowden. With the acquisition of Lackey and a loaded farm system of pitchers will make Bowden return to Triple-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be there until an injury or a trade.

#7 – Junichi Tazawa | RHP| AA | 23 | 8.1 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 98 IP | 2.57 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .284 BABIP | 43.7 GB% | 13 LD% | 39.6 FB%
Another Red Sox player that received a Scouting the Unknown last summer, and if you do a quick search within the Razzball website you’ll see several poor Major League outings. He also pitched 11 1/3 innings at Triple-A and performed well. Tazawa is still another full year away from making a major impact at the major league level. Tazawa has the skill set to thrive in the majors.

#28 – Stephen Fife | RHP | A/A+ | 22 | 8.9 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 87 1/3 IP | 3.71 ERA | 3.30 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .317 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 25 FB%
This is a bit of a stretch to place him in this section. There are definitely other pitchers the Red Sox could call upon in 2010 if there are bullpen issues. However, Fife generates more ground balls with his low to mid 90’s fastball than the US Government generates debt. With a slurvy slider and an average circle change-up, Fife could quickly rise through the minors if he continues to keep the ball on the ground. With another season under his belt, the Red Sox may try to make him into a starter. If this happens, he could be Aaron Cook, the 2009 Joel Pineiro, or even a Roy Halladay. The most likely outcome would be the Aaron Cook end of the spectrum. Serviceable, but nothing exciting.

Honorable Mentions
These players are in this section because they aren’t as likely to make an impact in 2010 for the Red Sox on the major league level. However, many of these prospects are their top rated prospects.

Hitters
#8 – Ryan Westmoreland | CF | A(ss) | 19 | .296/.401/.484 | 223 AB | 15 2B | 7 HR | .188 ISO | 19/0 SB/CS | 49:38 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 46.9 GB% | 16.9 LD% | 36.3 FB%
Keith Law has him ranked as the Red Sox number two prospect in 2010, and John Sickels has him ranked number one. He has the power to hit 20 to 25, and possibly even 30 homers with 25 to 30 steals in a full season. His plate discipline is stellar, his defense adequate, and the only concern is his injury history. Prior to playing in the minors he had shoulder surgery, thus the reason why he only has 223 at-bats this year. He’ll start in Single-A or possibly even High-A to start the 2010 season. He’ll be talked about more in 2011 and potentially playing in the big leagues in the late summer of 2011. However, a more reasonable expectation would have him playing in the majors in 2012.

#21 – Derrik Gibson | 2B/SS | A(ss) | 19 | 255 AB | 15 2B | 0 HR | .090 ISO | 28/5 SB/CS | 4238 K:BB | .351 BABIP | 60.3 GB% | 14.7 LD% | 24.6 FB%
He plays great defense, control the strike zone really well, but will struggle to hit for much power. Could be Adam Everett with some speed, or Neifi Perez – a slap hitter with little fantasy value save SAGNOF.

Ryan Lavarnway | C | A | 22 | .285/.367/.540 | 506 AB | 36 2B | 21 HR | .255 ISO | 113:50 K:BB | .349 BABIP | 40.2 GB%| 16.4 LD% | 43.1 FB%
I couldn’t find much information about Lavarnway, but my eyes tell me an ISO of .255 is pretty darn impressive. Power doesn’t just appear out of nowhere. Unless your name is Marcus Giles. Lavarnway has a long way to become truly relevant. He’ll need to repeat this type of performance for another two years for him to have a shot at the major league level. Having depth at catcher is extremely important in any organization. High-A should continue to help his numbers, but Double-A will be his first real test.

Pitchers
#6 – Casey Kelly | RHP | A/A+ | 20 | 7.0 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 95 IP | 2.08 ERA | 3.04 FIP | .85 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .230 BABIP | 51.6 GB% | 10.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP (.230), Kelly’s numbers were inflated (technically, that would be the correct word). Once a shortstop with stellar defense and a terrible bat, the Red Sox have committed to making Kelly a pitcher instead of a two-way player. His fastball has late life and reaches 92 mph. His curveball has a sharp bite and a changeup in the works. Projected to be a number two or three starter, Kelly will get tested in 2010 while at Double-A. If he can keep his good ground ball rate, he’ll progress quickly through the mid-minors. However, the numbers should regress a bit due to that extremely low BABIP. It would be scary to think of where he could be right now if he, and Boston, would have made him a pitcher to begin his career.

#11 – Stolmy Pimentel | RHIP | A | 19 | 7.9 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 117 2/3 IP | 3.82 ERA | 3.91 FIP | 1.39 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | .343 BABIP | 39.5 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 37.3 FB%
Considered to have the best changeup in the Boston farm system, Stolmy still has room to improve his average fastball (91 to 92 mph) with very few qualities attached to this offering. There is little life on his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch with the ability to become an average pitch. He should reach Double-A next year if all goes well.

——-
And no, I didn’t forget about Anthony Rizzo. He’ll get a Scouting the Unknown later in the 2010 season. So commentators do not worry, I won’t forget about him.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (14) | 2008 () | 2007 () | 2006 () | 2005 () | 2004 ()

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [78 – 84] NL Central
AAA: [84 – 58] International League
AA: [65 – 74] Southern League
A+: [54 – 83] Florida League
A: [59 – 80] Midwest League
R: [28 – 27] Gulf League
R: [24 – 52] Pioneer League

The Run Down
With Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto and the possibility of Homer Bailey pitching adequately, the Cincinnati Reds have a nice young nucleus. Pitching still seems to be a problem that has plagued them for the past few years. The Josh Hamilton-Volquez straight-up trade was directly related to that problem. Then two weeks ago, the Reds signed Aroldis Chapman to rather large contract for an unproved 21 year old flame thrower. This move bolsters their pitching depth as did their top picks in the 2009 draft (Mike Leake and Bradley Boxberger). Looking through all the Reds minor league players, some of their top prospects played well, but aren’t going to be as fantasy relevant as some of the lesser prospects may be. Many of the Reds position spots are either taken by greater players (Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Rolen) or youngsters that should be given a chance in 2010 (Drew Stubbs, Drew Sutton (SS), and Ryan Hanigan (C)). Nevertheless, the city of Cincinnati has some fun prospects on the rise, most notably Yonder Alonso, Chapman, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco. I am not going to talk about rookies from the 2009 draft (Leake or Boxberger) and Grey has already mentioned Aroldis Chapman and his analysis. Plus, I am sure everyone is tired of hearing about his “instant” ability to pitch in the majors. Um, yeah, I’ll believe it when I see it and punch myself if he starts the year in the majors.

Graduating Prospects
#3 – (CF) Drew Stubbs; #16 (C) Ryan Hanigan; #24 – (RHP) Carlos Fisher

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – Bradley Boxberger; Mike Leake; Logan Ondrusck; Sean Watson
Hitters – Yonder Alonso; Zack Cozart; Chris Heisey

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Yonder Alonso | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .292/.374/.464 | 295 AB | 24 2B | 9 HR | .172 ISO | 46:41 K:BB | .318 BABIP | 33.1 GB% | 27.1 LD% | 39.8 FB%
His total at-bats are nearly evenly split between the two levels. There is no sense in repeated what I said in August when I wrote a Scouting the Unknown article on Yonder Alonso. Same applies today as it did before.

#2 – Todd Frazier | 2B/3B/OF | AA/AAA | 23 | .292/.351/.481 | 514 AB | 45 2B | 16 HR | .189 ISO | 79:48 K:BB | .322 BABIP | 32.2 GB% | 22.6 LD% | 45.2 FB%
Only 63 AB at Triple-A
With light hitting Chris Dickerson and flameout Wladimir Balentien playing in left field, Frazier may have a chance to play at the major league level in 2010. He only had 63 at-bats at Triple-A in 2009, so he’ll need another half season there. With his ability to play multiple positions, he’s become a jack-of-all-trades. Meaning he isn’t above-average at any position. He has a strong arm and soft hands which would translate well to left field and third base. Owning above-average raw power, Frazier could provide average defense at either left or third with 20 to 25 homers a season with a good average (.275 to .300 range). Think Melvin Mora.

#8 – Juan Francisco | 3B | AA/AAA | 22 | .295/.329/.518 | 529 AB | 31 2B | 24 HR | .223 ISO | 115:24 K:BB | .332 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 20.5 LD% | 33.6 FB%
With Francisco projected as the future third baseman, Frazier may be relegated to the outfield. Granted, he may outgrow third and need to be traded or switch positions. He only had 92 at-bats at Triple-A, but he had 21 at-bats in the majors. The last three years (including this one) he has totaled 25, 23, and 24 homers (between three levels). Watch for his power to develop again at Triple-A and wait for Rolen to make his annual trip to the DL. Playing in the Reds bandbox, Francisco could put up some surprising rookie numbers.

#22 – Chris Heisey | CF/OF | AA/AAA | 24 | .314/.379/.521 | 516 AB | 35 2B | 22 HR | .207 ISO | 21/3 SB/CS | 77:48 K:BB | .346 BABIP | 31.9 GB% | 19.4 LD% | 48 FB%
Few players stock rose as much as Heisey’s did in 2009. With an appearance in the majors this past September, Heisey looks to be out of the Randy Winn mold. 15 to 20 homers with 15 to 20 steals. His defense (strong arm and good range) will get him noticed, as will his ability to play all outfield spots. Some scouts have pegged him as a fourth outfielder. This past year, he showed that he could be a regular.

Pitchers
#18 Matt Maloney | LHP | AA/AAA | 25 | 7.8 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 150 IP | 3.00 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | .318 BABIP | 43 GB% | 15.5 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Maloney threw 40 2/3 IP at the MLB level in addition to what he did in the minors. Although he looks like a solid number three pitcher, his strong tendency to give up homers and fly balls make him more of a fourth or fifth in the rotation, especially in the Reds small park. He does have a natural sinking 88 to 91 mph fastball, a plus changeup, and an average curveball and slider. Not blessed with the most overpowering “stuff,” Maloney does a good job of using his talents to pitch and not just throw. Not overtly sleeper worthy, but in really deep leagues, he may possess some stretches where he could be ownable.

Travis Wood | LHP | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 167 2/3 IP | 1.77 ERA | 3.28 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .259 BABIP | 42.7 GB% | 15.7 LD% | 37.9 FB%
Aided by an extremely low BABIP, Wood’s stock has risen (no pun intended) back to pre-2009 levels (#21 in 2008). I mention him because (A) he is a lefty, (B) he has a career .284 BABIP, and (C) pitching is always unpredictable. With Dusty Baker riding his young pitchers, you never known when a prospect will get called upon. Wood may be called upon soone rather than later if he can prove 2009 wasn’t a fluke. (He only threw 48 2/3 IP at Triple-A with noticeable differences in his statistical performance).

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Much like Wood, Jukich had a great year.  With a better defense behind him and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%), he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is nonexistent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc).

Sam Lecure | RHP | AAA | 25 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 143 1/3 IP | 4.46 ERA | 4.05 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | 1.1 HR/9 | .314 BABIP | 38 GB% | 18.3 LD% | 39.1 FB%
Not sure if he should even be mentioned for fantasy purposes. None of his stats would be good for the majors, or even at the Reds home park. Just another arm to shy away from.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Wes Bankston | 1B/3B | AAA | 25 | .267/.313/.449 | 457 AB | 26 2B | 17 HR | .182 ISO | 88:50 K:BB | .297 BABIP | 36.1 GB% | 18.1 LD% | 45.8 FB%
The last three years he has played for Tampa Bay, Oakland and now Cincinnati. He’s also hit 17, 20, 17 HR the past three years. Could be a source of cheap homers at the cost to your batting average.

Pitchers
Matt Fairel | LHP | A/A+ | 21 | 7.7 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 160 2/3 IP | 3.02 ERA | 3.59 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .299 BABIP | 44.1 GB% | 16 LD% | 33.9 FB%

These next pitchers have better upside than the ones already mentioned (minus Leake, Chapman, and Boxberger), but aren’t going to help you in 2010 without a rash of injuries. He threw 50 IP at Single-A and then went on to High-A and pitched well.

Mace Thurman | LHP | A/A+ | 22 | 9.3 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 79 2/3 IP | 1.81 ERA | 2.99 FIP | .99 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .250 BABIP | 42.9 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 36.2 FB%
His numbers were mind-boggling at Single-A and only went down to mind-blowing at High-A. He could be a set-up man within the next calender year (2011) or the closer within the same time frame.

New York Yankees 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (15) | 2008 (5) | 2007 (7) | 2006 (17) | 2005 (24) | 2004 (27)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [103 – 59] AL East – World Series Champions
AAA: [81 – 60] International League
AA: [69 – 72] Eastern League
A+: [77 – 56] Florida League
A: [74 – 65] South Atlantic
A(ss): [47 – 29] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [33 – 27] Gulf League

The Run Down
Not that the Yankees had a down year or anything like that. For all you naysayers that claim the Yankees don’t have a good farm system and don’t develop talent, here is news for you. In the trade to acquire Javier Vazquez, they traded Michael Dunn who posted a 12.2 K/9 in 73 1/3 IP this year across Double and Triple-A (though his walk rate nearly double from 2008, coming in at 5.6 BB/9). Oh, and Arodys Vizcaino isn’t a steroid that Alex Rodriguez used, but a flame throwing righty that may be the steal of the deal (like Neftali Feliz was in the Teixeira trade from Atlanta to Texas). Also, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson were traded for improvements at the major league level. The effing Yankees have talent in their farm system, but it usually doesn’t last long enough to develop out into the majors for their team. However, there are a few players that could come take the league by storm with an aging team (Jeter, Posada, and Mariano Rivera) looking to inject some youth. There may never be a true youth movement in the Bronx like the Tampa Bay Rays used to make the World Series in 2008, but this may be the closest they may come for some time.

Graduating Prospects
#7 – (RHP) Alfredo Aceves; #13 – (OF) Brett Gardner; #15 – (RHP) David Robertson; (SS) Ramiro Pena; (RHP) Jonathan Albaladejo

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – Grant Duff, Micheal Dunn (traded to Atlanta), Ian Kennedy (traded to Arizona), Zach Kroenke
Hitters – (C) Austin Romine, (1B) Brandon Laird, (OF) Colin Curtis

Players of Interest
Hitters
#2 – Jesus Montero | C | A+/AA | 19 | .337/.389/.562 | 347 AB | 25 2B | 17 HR | .225 ISO | 47:28 K:BB | .357 BABIP | 40.6 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 39.9 FB%
Pujols is a hitting machine, Jeter is clutch, and Montero is just another hyped catcher (I am looking at you Wieters, no, check that, J.R. Towles). All right, Jesus Montero may not be Towles, but he isn’t Jesus either, that is reserved for Babe Ruth. Scouts and insiders in the Yankee organization claim that Montero is the best pure hitter developed by the Yankees since Derek Jeter, albeit with much more power. Another thing in common with Jeter – he can’t field. Maybe not quite fair to Jeter who, by UZR standards, had a much better year than anyone could have imagined. I could reference a whole bunch of stats, however, all of them point to him pounding the ‘roids out of the ball and simply raking. His splits between High-A and Double-A were nearly identical. He needs more at-bats in the minors and should provide depth come September. Long term he is a DH, not a catcher, especially with Austin Romine just a step behind Montero. Keep your expectations for 2010 in check. 2011, that’s a different story.

#4 – Austin Romine | C | A+ | 20 | .276/.322/.441 | 441 AB | 28 2B | 13 HR | .165 ISO | 11/5 SB/CS | 78:29 K:BB | .303 BABIP | 42.1 GB% | 12.8 LD% | 45.1 FB%
Speaking of Romine, here is the future back stop of the Yankees. He plays good defense, has a strong arm, but lacks some technique that he is working on. Furthermore, he has good power potential, think 20 to 25 homers, and puts the ball into play. With Jorge Posada’s contract ending in 2011, Romine and Montero both look to be on track to filling that void.

Pitchers
#6 – Zach McAllister | RHP | AA | 21 | 7.1 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 121 IP | 2.23 ERA | 3.22 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .279 BABIP | 47.5 GB% | 13.3 LD% | 33.3 FB%
The Yankees, um, yanked McAllister around more than Chip Caray lied during the 2009 playoffs. Once he told the Yankees to eff off and let him use his “natural” pitches, McAllister rocked the minor leagues. With a mid 90’s fastball (92 to 94 mph), a two-seam fastball that has hard tailing and sinking action (89 to 91 mph) and a slider. He relies more on ground balls and control than strikeouts and overpowering hitters. Across the board, his ground ball rate was good (47.5%) and he limited hard hit balls (13.3 LD%). Look for McAllister to begin at Triple-A next year and possibly a midseason call up if the Yankees start to have a rash of injuries, or if the Yankees need to trade someone.

#9 – Mark Melancon | RHP | AAA | 24 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.9 BB/9 | 53 IP | 2.89 ERA | 2.69 FIP | .91 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .258 BABIP | 58.2 GB% | 12.8 LD% | 26.4 FB%
A lot of the articles I read about Melancon say that he will be placed in the bullpen and is the heir to Rivera’s closer job. Touching 95 mph with his fastball (usually sits between 91 and 94 mph), a power curve and a marginal changeup is reminiscent of Joe Nathan. Relying heavily on the ground ball (58.2% this year and 57.6% in 157 career innings), Melancon is the antonym of melancholy. Don’t lie, you were all thinking of that word the whole time! Oh, and for what it’s worth, it’s been said that he has “the closer mentality.”

#24 – D.J. Mitchell | RHP | A/A+ | 22 | 8.0 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 140 1/3 IP | 2.63 ERA | 2.85 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | .308 BABIP | 62 GB% | 7.1 LD% | 22.9 FB%
Mitchell wasn’t always a starter, at Clemson he played outfield during his freshman year. It was only during his sophomore year that he began pitching. Consequently, his pitches aren’t as refined as other pitchers. His two-seam fastball has natural tailing action, “the arm speed” for a solid curve, and a changeup that is potentially a plus pitch. Although his ranking seems low, an impressive showing this year, sky rockets his ranking (near the top 10, if not in the top 10). Think Joel Pinero’s 2009 season stats with more strikeouts and you have D.J. Mitchell’s 2009 season. Very few players made solid contact (7.1 LD%) or lifted the ball in the air (22.9 FB%) while keeping the ball sustainably (.308 BABIP) on the ground (62 GB%). Watch for this name to rise to the top of pitching prospect discussions.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
David Adams | 2B | A/A+ | 22 | .286/.373/.443 | 490 AB | 40 2B | 8 3B | 7 HR | .157 ISO | 11/8 SB/CS | 88:61 K:BB | .340 BABIP | 42.4 GB% | 19.1 LD% | 38.2 FB%
Not that the Yankees lacked top end prospects, but they traded many away that were closer to the majors. Adams isn’t anything more than organizational depth at this time.  Adams laced the ball into the gaps (40 doubles) while providing good plate discipline and adequate defense at second, and occasionally spelling his third base teammate for a few games. Nothing special, but worth noting for those looking DEEP for MI help.

#30 – Abraham Almonte | CF | A | 20 | .280/.333/.391 | 440 AB | 14 2B | 10 3B | 5 HR | .111 ISO | 36/5 SB/CS | 81:35 K:BB | .334 BABIP | 52.8 GB% | 16 LD% | 30.9 FB%
This is all SAGNOF. A plus is that he plays good defense, according to his scouting report.

Pitchers
#14 – Manuel Banuelos | LHP | A/A+ | 18 | 8.8 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 109 IP | 2.64 ERA | 2.93 FIP | .3 HR/9 | .284 BABIP | 43.6 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 33.6 FB%
I contemplated putting him up above in the other section, then I noticed that he only pitched in ONE inning at High-A. Age is on his side and the management claims he is on the fast track.

Pat Venditte | RHP/LHP | A/A+ | 24 | 11.6 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 67 1/3 IP | 1.87 ERA | 2.07 FIP | .3 HR/9 | .353 BABIP | 43.2 GB% | 16.1 LD% | 36.7 FB%
Who doesn’t like a switch pitching reliever? I wrote about Venditte in a Scouting the Unknown back in early September. It’s a good article, you should check it out. Next year at Double-A will be the true test to see if he can turn his gimmick into something for all to see in the media disaster, I mean, media frenzy that is New York City.

Chicago White Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings according to Baseball America (2009)
2009 (16) | 2008 (28) | 2007 (26) | 2006 (14) | 2005 (12) | 2004 (20)

Record of Major and Minor league teams
MLB: [86 – 77] AL Central
AAA: [67 – 76] International League
AA: [92 – 47] Southern League
A+: [73 – 65] Carolina League
A: [82 – 57] South Atlantic League
R: [42 – 34] Pioneer League
R: [27 – 39] Appalachian League

The Run Down
With one of the better rookies of 2009 in Gordon Beckham, and there is an argument that he should have won Rookie of the Year, the White Sox are still in desperate need to become younger. Trading away several top arms for Jake Peavy has seriously weakened the depth of the team’s minor league system. Granted, with Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd and Danks, the White Sox have a nice looking rotation in a rather weak division; especially if youngsters Dan Hudson or Carlos Torres pitch well. So the depth is poor, but the top is heavy. With Tyler Flowers, Dan Hudson, and Jordan Danks, the Sox have young studs. No, I didn’t forget about Dayan Viciedo, he is just an afterthought this year. That’s what happens when your weight may rival your batting average – granted a .280 batting average is still decently pleasant. White Sox fans, don’t look too deep or you might find out why Ken Williams is being questioned for his constant trading.

Graduating Prospects
#1 – (3B) Gordon Beckham

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Justin Cassel, Matt Long, Jacob Rasner, Sergio Santos
Hitters – #4 (3B) Dayan Viciedo, #7 (CF) Jordan Danks, #29 (2B/3B) CJ Retherford

Players of Interest
Hitters
#4 Tyler Flowers | C | AA/AAA | 23 | .297/.423/.516 | 353 AB | 28 2B | 15 HR | .219 ISO | 108:67 K:BB | .396 BABIP | 47.8 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 33.5 FB%
Received in Javier Vazquez trade to Atlanta last winter (What kind of scouting do the Braves have that they have so many catchers to trade (i.e. Salty and Flowers)?), Flowers is penciled in as the future catcher of the Sox. With A.J. Pierzynski’s contract ending after this season (2010), a midseason call up should be expected. He only had 105 ABs at Triple-A, but still hit fairly well (.286/.364/.433). His strikeout rates are worrisome (~30.5 K%) as is his extremely high BABIP (.396). He has a career .358 BABIP in 1267 AB in the minors. For the 2010 season, he has 2009 Miguel Montero-like potential.

#7 Jordan Danks | CF | A+/AA | 22 | .266/.359/.405 | 402 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .139 ISO | 12/4 SB/CS | 105:55 K:BB | .334 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 30.4 FB%
The little brother of John Danks, Jordan plays good defense, lacks power, and has many scouts see-sawing on his future. Some scouts believe he will be able to add more homers and power once he adds more bulk to his frame, while others completely disagree, noting specifically his sketchy swing mechanics. The 2009 scouting report said he should hit for average, and he did in 118 AB in High-A (.322/.409/.525) but struggled mightily in Double-A (.243/.337/.356 in 284 AB). His strikeout rate is worth noting, but he walks a fair amount too. He kind of reminds me of Denard Span – had a lot of hype, loses favor, and then surprises later than expected. He is more of a dark horse/sleeper after his dismal 2009 season.

#2 Dayan Viciedo | 3B | AA | 20 | .280/.317/.391 | 504 AB | 20 2B | 12 HR | .111 ISO | 89:22 K:BB | .319 BABIP | 55.2 GB% | 16.4 LD% | 28.2 FB%
Grey mentioned Dayan Viciedo in early November and I mentioned him back in mid-June. Viciedo, if you listened to the hype, was a complete flop. However, if his age is legit, he played really well at Double-A. His power numbers were not quite what everyone was expecting, but that is what happens when you hit more than half of your balls on the ground. In 2010, he needs to put a bit more lift on his swing to see more success. He didn’t walk enough, however, his strikeout rate was respectable (17.7%). Triple-A pitching is next, and if he can adjust accordingly, a late season call-up (or an injury replacement if he is succeeding) would be expected. In dynasty leagues, now is your time to buy low.

#29 C.J. Retherford | 2B/3B | AA | 23 | .297/.340/.473 | 478 AB | 46 2B | 10 HR | .176 ISO | 70:30 K:BB | .328 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 20.3 LD% | 39.7 FB%
With Brent Morel and Viciedo looking to lock up third and first base for the future, the Sox moved Retherford to second this year. He may have been a low ranked prospect in 2009, but his play moved him into the top of the Sox farm system. With Beckham at second, Retherford will need to repeat 2009 to solidify his rising prospect rating. He doesn’t have great speed and his defense is, at best, slightly above average (and his third base defense is marginal). Truly, Retherford could eventual provide late round depth at second base in terms of fantasy if he could hit .280/.350/.425 with 10 to 15 homers a year.

Pitchers
#24 Dan Hudson | RHP | A/A+/AA/AAA | 22 | 10.1 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 147 1/3 IP | 2.32 RA | 2.43 FIP | .94 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .288 BABIP | 42.1 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
If Flowers wasn’t on this team, Dan Hudson would easily be the top prospect in the system. Rising through the entire minor leagues last year, Hudson dominated at each level. Even his BABIP wasn’t extremely low, aiding his case for prospect breakout player of the year. His worst stop in the minors was in Triple-A at the end of the summer when he saw his walk rate skyrocket (3.4 BB/9), which was the highest since Single-A (2.6 BB/9). Although, he only pitched 24 innings at Triple-A, he was called-up in September and threw 18 1/3 inning with a strikeout rate of 6.8 K/9 and a walk rate of 4.3 BB/9. He has always been a good pitcher, but his senior year of baseball (2008), he slumped and when he was drafted he pitched really well (90 strikeouts in 70 IP). Look for him to compete for the last starting rotation spot in spring training with Carlos Torres. Don’t be shocked to see him start at Triple-A to save service time. If you want the next rookie stud, look no further. He has a low 90’s fastball with tailing effects to lefties and a riding in effect to righties, an average slider, and a spotty change-up (pre-2009 scouting report).

#25 Carlos Torres | RHP | AAA | 26 | 9.1 K/9 | 3.9 BB/9 | 128 IP | 2.39 ERA | 3.04 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .279 BABIP | 47.6 FB% | 20.2 LD% | 28.5 FB%
He received several starts in 2009 for the White Sox (28 1/3 IP) and pitched admirably. Note that admirably doesn’t mean well. This is just a heads up mention as Torres has a good fastball, a plus cutter, and the experience to help the White Sox in 2010. He is worth a late round flier.

#11 John Ely | RHP | AA | 23 | 7.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 156 1/3 IP | 2.82 ERA | 3.68 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .296 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 16.4 LD% | 28.9 FB%
His fastball sits between 88 and 94 mph with good movement, a 12-to-6 curve that fluctuates between being an “out” pitch and a “show me” pitch. Nothing spectacular, but nothing to scoff at either. As long as he keeps his pitches down, he should be a back end pitcher. Look only for him in the majors if there is a rash of injuries to the rotation.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Christian Marrero | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .308/.348/.501 | 455 AB | 30 2B | 18 HR | .193 ISO | 94:24 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 44.2 GB% | 20.5 LD% | 35.3 FB%
He laced balls all over the field (20.5 LD%) while hitting his way to gain attention in the baseball world. Splitting the year at High-A and Double-A, Marrero pounded out hit after hit. His ISO raised between his promotion (.168 to .219), as did his walk rates. He’ll start the year in Double-A. Eventually, Marrero could replace Konerko, or platoon with another first basemen. Don’t be surprised to see him, Morel or Retherford used as trade bait.

Stefan Gartrell | OF | AA/AAA | 25 | .281/.358/.513 | 474 AB | 31 2B | 23 HR | .232 ISO | 128:53 K:BB | .340 BABIP | 45.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Gartrell mainly played at Double-A. His age is working against him, his strikeouts too. His power on the other hand, definitely playing in his favor. If Jones doesn’t play well, Gartrell might be an option for a rather underachieving outfield gang.

#17 Brent Morel | 3B | A+ | 22 | .281/.335/.453 | 4481 AB | 33 2B | 16 HR | .172 ISO | 25/9 SB/CS | 66:38 K:BB | .304 BABIP | 44.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 38.5 FB%
A level too low for a “Player of Interest” mention, Morel projects to play the opposite corner of Viciedo. With good plate discipline, above average power, and good range with a plus arm, Morel is on the fast track to the majors. Look for him to play at Double-A, and potentially Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#16 Jhonny Nunez | RHP | AA/AAA | 23 | 10.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 70 2/3 IP | 2.55 ERA | 3.36 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .307 BABIP | 30.7 GB% | 22.8 LD% | 40.7 FB%
Used primarily as a reliever, Nunez pitched well this year. He was once a pitcher, however, his stuff (a mid 90’s fastball and a power slider) works better as a reliever – mainly because of his inconsistencies and inability to develop a solid third pitch.

Dan Remenowsky | RHP | A | 23 | 15.5 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 63 1/3 IP | 1.99 ERA | 1.63 FIP | .88 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .319 BABIP | 39 GB% | 13 LD% | 43.9 FB%
Easily the pitcher with the numbers that jump out and poke you in the eye. He is a bit older than his competition, and he’ll need to repeat his season to gain any kind of higher ranking or notoriety.

Stephen Sauer | RHP | A | 22| 7.8 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 142 IP | 3.36 ERA | 2.79 FIP | 1.28 WHIP |.3 HR/9 | .363 BABIP | 56.3 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 21.7 FB%
I like his ground ball rate, and that is why he is here (along with adequate numbers too). His BABIP was a bit high (adjusted for his lower FIP), but his control, ground ball rate, and overall solid numbers makes him someone to watch.