Fantasy Baseball Advice

San Diego Padres 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (29) | 2008 (12) | 2007 (29) | 2006 (29) | 2005 (27) | 2004 (25)

Record of Each Affiliate:
Majors: 75 – 87
AAA: 60 – 84
AA: 70 – 70
A+: 73 – 67
A: 94 – 36
A(ss): 34 – 24
R: 28 – 28

The Run Down

The Padres, sans Peavy, are Adrian Gonzalez’s team. Too bad beyond him there are only a few stars ready for the additional limelight. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of young talent already in the majors (Mat Latos, Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn Jr., Clayton Richards, Wade LeBlanc, and Kevin Kouzmanoff). However, this talent will be heavily relied upon unless the Padres spend some more money. Considering Peavy was traded to save money, I highly doubt that this will happen. There are also rumors swirling around that Bell may be traded. Additionally, Kevin Towers was fired as the general manager, however, leaving a pretty rosy situation for whomever they hire as their new General Manager. There is plenty of salary space, a 2008 draft class that is performing out of their mind (they did have a record of 94 and 36 – a 2.5 wins to ever loss), tons of young talent that will be cheap for years to come, and Gonzalez. This 2008 draft class has four players taken between the first and second rounds that had great seasons this year (James Darnell, Jaff Decker, Allan Dysktra, Logan Forsythe – and they are all hitters). The new GM will definitely still have to decide whether Adrian Gonzalez should be traded to open up first base for Blanks (would be a bad move as Gonzalez has taken a leadership role in the clubhouse); trade Kouzmanoff so Headley could play his natural position; and/or trade Bell. I am not going to speculate for there are other authors/bloggers/columnists who will do that.

You will notice that the Padres had an above-average ranking in 2008 and free falling to the bottom. Why? According to Baseball America, it was a combination of top prospects graduating (Nick Hundley and Headley), and several top prospects, especially pitchers, having terrible seasons in 2008 (Matt Antonelli [2B] went from #2 to #9; LeBlanc [SP] from #4 to #12; Drew Miller (SP) from #5 to #26; Steve Garrison [SP] from #6 to #22; and Will Inman [SP] from #7 to #18) and their 2004 first round draft pick Matt Bush [SS] has been an utter failure. The trade of Peavy returned several top 30 pitching prospects from the White Sox farm system (Aaron Poreda [LHP] #3; Clayton Richards [LHP] #5; Dexter Carter [RHP] #23 (who had the best fastball in Chicago’s farm); Adam Russell [RHP] #27), granted only Richards paid dividends this year while the others struggled mightily in the minors once they were Padres’ property. The trade of Scott Hairston to the Athletics brought in a couple of young right-handed power arms in Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano (with a player to be named later that ended up being Sean Gallagher). Italiano had some major injuries (labrum surgery on right shoulder in ‘06 and a skull fracture in ‘07) but has recovered and Webb is a bit unrefined but received a September call up. Only time will tell if these trades will benefit the Padres, other than saving them money of course.

Players of Interest
The players closest to the majors have either entered the majors (Latos, Blanks, Venable, etc.) or they aren’t worth mentioning. Antonelli was terrible this year at Triple-A and Kulbacki was just as poor at Double-AA. Thus, many of their top prospects that performed well are in the low minors.

Simon Castro | SP | A | 21 10.2 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 140 1/3 IP | 3.33 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
Baseball America’s breakout prospect (ranked #14) pulled through with that prediction throwing a dominating slider and fastball that peaks at 97-98 mph that averages between 92 to 95 mph. He improved his walk rate and control while keeping his strikeouts near his prior performance. Look for him to start in High-A with a quick promotion to Double-A and a possible promotion to Triple-A or the majors by mid-August. I could see him doing really well again next year (as long as he continues to induce ground balls against righties (47.6GB% vs RH), but does have a pretty decent rate of 39.8 GB% overall and keeps his control in check).

Jaff Decker | OF | A | 19 | in 258 AB – .299/.442/.514 | 25 2B | 16 HR | 92:85 K:BB | ranked #3
Other than having an awkward first name, Decker had an awesome year. I am not even sure where to start with this lefty hitting youngster. His numbers are helped by having other top hitting prospects Darnell and Dykstra hitting around him too. He has tremendous plate awareness, plus power “potential” and a stellar arm (think low 90’s fastball). Oh, did I mention he turns only 20 in February? He should moved up to High-A and reach Double-A by mid-June if all goes well.

James Darnell | 3B | A/A+ | 22 | @A in 222 AB – .329/.468/.518 | 17 2B | 7 HR | 51:57 K:BB | @A+ in 235 AB – .294/.377/.533 | 18 2B | 13 HR | 38:30 K:BB | ranked #10
Looks like Kouzmanoff and Headley better start hitting or Darnell (ranked #10) may sneak up on them. With good plate discipline, a plus runner, average range at third, a strong arm, and the ability to play RF if the Padres see fit, Darnell’s future is looking brighter. Additionally, he was one of three South Carolina players taken in the 2008 draft (after Justin Smoak and Reese Havens), but Baseball America says some consider him the better athlete with more potential.

Allan Dykstra | 1B | A | 21 | in 411 AB | .226/.397/.375 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 103:102 K:BB | ranked #8
Looks like Jack Cust has a new competitor in the strikeout-walk-homer triad competition. Well, that is if Dykstra can learn to hit more homers. He has something called avascular necrosis of the hip which is a condition that results in the hip joint not receiving blood. The result is pain in the groin, butt and down the front of the thigh. Eventually stiffness of the joint (hip in this case) or a limp while walking will occur and the long term effect is interference with sleep. He got this condition from falling during a basketball game. Pretty freak incident. However, that happened before he was drafted last year, but one must remember that this is a degenerative disease. He hit for average in college, has great zone control but does strikeout quite frequently, has good power, poor swing mechanics with his lower body, below average defender, runner and athlete. Looks better fit for an AL team.

Logan Forsythe | 3B | A+/AA | 21 | (totals) in 480 AB – .300/.429/.440 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 111:102 K:BB | ranked #11
He has had several injuries, but this year he was scrap free. He has a “short, compact swing; good defense; and an above average arm.” Supposedly, he won’t develop tons of homer power but great gap power as he has a natural line-drive swing. He didn’t do amazing like Jaff Decker, but he was pretty solid. As with most young hitters, he struggled at Double-A and will probably open there again.

Sawyer Carroll | OF | A/A+/AA | 23 (totals) in 479 AB – .317/.413/.489 | 40 2B | 9 3B | 8 HR | 19/9 SB/CS | 106:80 K:BB
Stellar name, tons of gap power, decent speed on the base paths but needs to be more efficient. Granted there is a small sample size, he never hit below a .316 average (A), a .402 on-base percentage (A+), and a .438 slugging percentage (AA) [.316 /.410/.464 (A), .320/.402/.531 (A+), .317/.440/.488 (AA)]. I am going to assume he will make Baseball America’s rankings this year as top 30 Padres prospect. He is a bit old to be a stellar prospect, but he still has some potential to surprise. Plus, with the year he had, his age now matches the level of play he should be playing in – Double-A, and should open there in 2010 season.

Wynn Pelzer | SP | A+ | 23 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 150 2/3 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.28 WHIP
Threw 32 more innings than last year, improved his strikeout rate, regressed in his walk rate, but overall had a pretty good year. He doesn’t change speeds well, throwing his fastball between 93 and 95 mph, possesses a hard biting slider, and a poor change and splitter. Long term he looks better as a power reliever in the mold of a Brad Lidge. Look for him to move in the Double-A rotation with a September call up as a reliever.

Cody Decker | OF | R | 22 | in 198 AB – .354/.421/.717 | 21 2B | 15 HR | 42:19 K:BB
Not sure if Jaff[y] and Cody are brothers — couldn’t find it on the internet. Did find out Cody had 47 homers in college at UCLA playing first base and was drafted in the 22nd round this year. Matter of fact, he hit 36 homers this year alone if you combine his college homers and Rookie league homers (though that is a poor thing to do). Just look at his Cube ratings. He is doing pretty well for himself so far. He should start at Single-A next year.

Houston Astros 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (30) | 2008 (30) | 2007 (22) | 2006 (20) | 2005 (22) | 2004 (29)

Record of each Affiliate
Majors: 74 – 88
AAA: 63 – 89
AA: 61 – 69
A+: 56 – 84
A: 68 – 72
A(ss): 27 – 48
R: 18 – 38
R: 27 – 40

The Astros have one of the older rosters in the majors and they aren’t getting any younger. Previous top prospects have been busts or have failed to stay with Houston. Remember J.R. Towles? Just vaguely; and if you live by Grey’s philosophy of “plug-in-and-ignore,” the catcher position is irrelevant for fantasy purposes (however, highly important in any other form of baseball). The last top ranked prospect in the Astros farm to have high success was Hunter Pence in 2007, but before then was Roy Oswalt in 2001. The five years in between those two players have seen the likes of Carlos Hernandez (LHP, Dodgers), John Buck (C, Royals), Taylor Buchholz (RHP, Rockies), Chris Burke (2B, Diamondbacks), and Jason Hirsh (RHP, Rockies) as the top prospects and now are on other teams. Scouting, drafting, developing prospects and determining potential is extremely difficult. Potential, the catch-all term for highly touted prospects, the optimistic rehashing of a player’s future, the … “I actually get paid to talk this vaguely,” and highly educated guesses. Potential is such a dirty vague word that tricks everyone into believing all the hype surrounding a prospect.

Before more digression occurs, we were talking about the Houston Astros. Having a ranking in the lower third, and the bottom half of that third, for the last few years has been detrimental to the development of the organization. That, and having to trade to acquire major pieces for playoff runs (Beltran and Valverde) has depleted their talent pool. This year it was definitely more noticeable. They (the major league team) struggled to stay around .500 for most of the season, saw their manager get fired, and threw several rookies into the fire by the middle of the season. Bud Norris (#2 ranked prospect), Felipe Paulino (#7 ranked prospect) and Samuel Gervacio (#19 ranked prospect) pitched in the majors for a significant portion of the season. The typical growing pains of rookie pitchers was exemplified and evident in their roller-coaster season. Jason Castro (#1 ranked prospect), the future starting catcher, thrived at High-A, but struggled slugging at Double-A with a line of .293/.323/.385, compared to .309/.399/.517 at High-A. He is still at least another full year away from even remotely contributing to the major league team. Many of the top performers in the Astros farm system were in the low-minors and the upper level readily available talent was promoted to the major leagues.

Some of the players that had a good year are as followed (working from AAA and on down):

Players of Interest

Chris Johnson | 3B | AAA | 24 yrs : .281/.323/.461 | 383 AB | 20 2B | 13 HR | 90:21 K:BB
Ranked as the fifth best prospect, Johnson played well for a week at Double-A and was quickly promoted to Triple-A and thrived. Playing in the Pacific Coast League, where hitters numbers are usually inflated, his stats are pretty average at best. However, he did enough to warrant a September call-up this year (though he didn’t do well with two hits in 22 at-bats). Considered the best power hitter in their system, it still looks like he has more gap power than anything else. He hit 13 home runs and 24 doubles at Double-A last year, and this year he hit 13 homers and 20 doubles at Triple-A. With Geoff Blum manning third base with his ancient 36 year old body, look for Johnson to get a shot at starting at the hot-corner for 2010.

Chia-Jen Lo | RP | A+/AA | 23 | @AA 9K/9 | 4.6 BB/9 | 39 IP | @A+ 12.8 K/9 | 4.6 BB/9 | 25 1/3 IP
Lo throws his fastball between 91 to 96 mph with a splitter, a low 80’s slider and a marginal change-up. This was his first pro season since coming over from Taiwan and he showed great potential (there is that dirty word again) this year. In 64 1/3 innings, he averaged 10.5 K/9 with a disturbing walk rate. Used strictly as a reliever, though not a closer, he should find himself back at Double-A to refine his control, but if used out of the bullpen, we may be looking at a future stud for you Mr. B’s out there.

Kolby Clemens | C | A+ | 22 | .345/.419/.636 | 423 AB | 45 2B | 22 HR | 121 RBI | 109:51 K:BB
Hard to ignore the legend’s son. He had a monster year (along with teammate Gaston). He will always be at least a level behind Castro as they are the same age and Castro is the better prospect. However you look at it, those numbers are hard to ignore. He isn’t a ranked prospect as there are several players above him at the catcher position. Just wanted to point out his year as he had the highest OPS in the entire system.

Jon Gaston | LF | A+ | 22 | .279/.367/.598 | 518 AB | 31 2B | 35 HR | 101 RBI | 14 SB | 164:71 K:BB

Speaking of a high OPS, Gaston (and don’t reference Beauty and the Beast) had the third highest as the second bash brother in the High-A Lancaster’s lineup. He may have not been ranked in 2009’s Baseball America handbook, but after this year he should at least be on the radar. With an aging lineup in the majors and the need for power to be replaced, Gaston may have found lightning in a bottle as he only had two homers the season before. Maybe he just needed some seasoning (and 4 dozen eggs every morning).

Fernand Abad | SP | A+/AA | @AA: 8.4 K/9 | 1.9 BB/9 | 14 IP | @A+: 8.6 K/9 | .9 BB/9 | 82 2/3 IP | 1.04 WHIP

Love the name. Love the strikeout to walk ratio and The Cube loves him too (control [98] | K-Rating [99] | Efficiency [96])! Oh, and did I mention he is a lefty? Yup. Keep an eye on him, though he may only see late season action in 2010, aka September Call-Up.

Henry Villar | SP | A | 22 | 10.9 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 90 IP | 1.09 WHIP
He may be a bit old for A-ball, but the strikeout rate is nice and the control is impeccable.

Julio Martinez | 1B | R/A(ss) | 21 | @A(ss) .326/.380/.540 | 187 AB | 15 2B | 5 HR | 30:15 K:BB
He played at both the Rookie level and in short season hitting a combined .326/.380/.540 with 12 homers in 187 at-bats. Hard to know much about these low-minor players as many don’t have many scouting reports on them.

Jose Altuve | 2B | R | 19 | .324/.408/.508 | 179 AB | 20 2B | 21 SB | 16:26 K:BB
Jiovanni Mier | SS | R | 18 | .276/.388/.483 | 192 AB | 7 HR | 10 SB
Yuri Perez | SP | R | 18 | 10.5 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 51 2/3 IP
These last three are together because I just want you to be aware of them. They are all young, performed well, and are positions in which the Astros lack quality depth.

As the season’s last week is winding down, Scouting the Unknown will be put on hold until pitchers and catchers report to camp in February. Don’t be sad. Why? Because Grey and I have devised a new article to warm your innards during the harsh winter (or if you are in the south – the brisk morning) weather. What is this new article you may ask? Well, it still deals with the minor leagues, but instead of individual players, I will briefly outline all minor league affiliates and their records of the major league team along with key players. The order will be Baseball America’s 2009 farm rankings, reporting the rankings backwards. At first I will write about two teams at a time and eventually be talking about a single team. This means the first two will be Houston and San Diego. If you have any tidbits, advice or other information sections for the article, here is a week heads-up.

Casey Crosby | SP | Detroit Tigers | DOB: 9/17/88 | 6-5 | 200 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right/Left | DET #4 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Has no ratings on Crosby

Thanks to Tommy John surgery, this young lefty has flown under the radar – or maybe it’s the nasty walk rate that is causing the blimp to disappear. Either way, Crosby suffered an elbow injury during instructional league, and within nine months he was throwing a baseball once again. No, this is not a typo; he came back in NINE months. That is rather fast when you consider most players aren’t at full strength until almost two years after the surgery. Baseball America raved about how his athleticism allowed him to come back so quick; specifically noting how he was an All-State pitcher and Wide Receiver at a suburban Chicago prep school.

In throwing a fastball that is clocked between 92 to 94 with a max of 97 (supposedly) with late life and a Circle Change-up that sits between 84 and 86, he is able to induce a high percentage of ground balls (50.2% in ‘09). He also possesses a hard slider that tops out at 87 and a slow sweeping curveball. His delivery was consistently critiqued as clunky and erratic, but still remains deceptive. He lacks polish because of his injury, and because he happens to be pitching where snow and wind is less reliable than Congress. Here is a quick look at his numbers:

08 (R) 3.9 K/9 | 5.8 BB/9 | 4 2/3 IP | 0 HR/9 | 0 ERA | 1.5 WHIP
09 (A) 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB\9 | 104 2/3 IP | .3 HR/9 | 2.41 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 50.2 GB%

Throwing aside 2008, his 2009 numbers are slightly about average with a notable negative mark which has plagued him since high school. What is really impressive is that his WHIP could be under one if he was able to cut his walk by a third (or 15 less). The strikeout rate is strong; he keeps the ball in the park; and he is a hard throwing lefty. Some things to watch as he progresses to A+ or possibly AA to start next year is his delivery, his control and pitching more innings each year. With the emergence of Rick Porcello and the return to dominance that Justin Verlander had this year, the Tigers are still in need of viable middle and end of the rotation starters. Crosby is still a full year away from contending for a major league rotation spot. However, his name could be swirling around the July trade deadline (like it was this year) and he could be up around that time next year if all goes well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him vying for a bullpen spot in spring training, but he should stay as a starter for now.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh Pirates | DOB: 2/6/87 | 6-2 | 225 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left/Right | PIT #1 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (99) | Speed (39) | Contact (33) | Patience (96)

How Pedro Alvarez slipped from my conscious is only known by Freud – or maybe it’s the seventeenth straight losing season that is going on over in Pittsburgh. He would have been the top pick in the 2008 draft, except the Tampa Bay Rays already had Evan Longoria. With an award shelf already overflowing with 2006 Freshman Player of the year and two straight All-American selections at Vanderbilt, Alvarez is on track to keep adding to his impressive accomplishments. Possessing quick hands, great bat speed and stellar plate discipline, he has been compared to Albert Pujols. That is a rather large comparison, but Pittsburgh needs a player of that caliber to work through its minor league system. Drafted as the “future face of the franchise,” and paid handsomely, the Pirates brass have a lot riding on his … well you get the point.

With Steve Pearce manning first base since the trade of Adam LaRoche and Andy LaRoche playing excellent defense with adequate offense at third, I suspect that Pearce will be moved to the bench and either Andy LaRoche or Alvarez will play first. Alvarez has mediocre defensive skills at third and would be at least slightly above average at first. Any way you line it up, when you have Garret “Robot” Jones leading your team in homers with only 292 AB any power addition will be forced into the lineup. Just recently he hit three homers in a game against Chinese Taipei. He hit 49 homer in a little over two and half years at Vanderbilt and has hit like this in the minors:

09 (totals) .288/.378/.535 | 465 AB | 27 HR | 32 2B | 71:129 BB:K
09 (A+) .247/.342/.486 | 243 AB | 14/.239 HR/ISO | 28.8 K% | 13.2 BB%
09 (AA) .33/.419/.590 | 222 AB | 13/.257 HR/ISO | 26.6 K% | 13.3 BB%

It is important to note that he broke his Hamate bone (the power sapping injury for hitters) in his right hand in 2008, which lead to him having reduced power numbers in 2008 at college and removing 23 games from his career. With that said, it may put his splits between high-A and double-A this year into perspective. He started with a poor April and had a decent May. Other than that, it wasn’t until July when he went to double-A Altoona. From that point on, he simply raked. The power is straight legit, the average at the major league level will probably drop down to the .260 to .270 range (Marc Hulet say the .250 to .260 range. His strikeouts are comparable to BJ Upton and Mike Cameron, which isn’t the company I would like, but his walks are essentially the same as Cameron’s though. Matter of fact, Cameron’s plate discipline would nearly mimic what Alvarez has done in the minors so far.

All in all, Alvarez should either be the Pirates starting first baseman or third baseman to start the 2010 season. However, with all teams being arbitration pansies, he will probably be called up in June. If the Pirates want fans to actually show up next year they should have him start from day one. I personally think he will struggle for a few weeks up and then go off like Longoria his rookie year. Yes, this is hyping him early, but I would take him over Posey, Heyward, and Smoak. Trust the Alvar-tros Pirate!

For a quick summary of each minor leagues leader boards, Rotoworld’s (Circling the Bases Blog) Matthew Pouliot complied the AAA OPS leaders, AAA ERA leaders, and Eastern League OPS and ERA leaders(AA). Not all of the names you’ll recognize, some you will because I wrote about them (Carlos Santana), others you will because they are quad-A players (Chris Shelton, John Bowker), and many notable players are not on the lists because they didn’t amass enough innings or at-bats to qualify (Tommy Hanson, Madison Bumgarner). Also, over at FanGraphs’ Mark Hulet wrote about our favorite Cuban Dayan Viciedo, who I mentioned over three months ago. Hopefully you enjoys these links, otherwise I just feel like a tool for throwing them at you.

Ethan Martin | SP/RP | Los Angeles Dodgers | DOB: 6/6/89 (20) | 6-2 | 195 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | LAD #3 prospect according to Baseball America (2009)
Has no Cube ratings

Two Dodger pitchers in two weeks? Yes, I am sorry, but they have some intriguing prospects. Martin was a high school standout as a third baseman and only in his senior year did he start to pitch. He was considered a second round third baseman for the 2008 draft as a high schooler. However, for his senior year at high school, he was needed to pitch and during a game in which he pitched against some tough opponents in Georgia (Eric Hosmer, if I recall correctly) and dominated them. He went on to win the Baseball America High School Player of the Year award in 2008 and was also voted Georgia State’s Player of the Year as well. As a high school pitcher he was 11-1, had a .99 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 79 innings (disclaimer – this doesn’t include the state championship game). He didn’t pitch in the minors in 2008 because he tore his meniscus in his right knee in a post-draft workout. The Dodgers decided they wanted him pitching and not hitting. Why you may ask? Due to the fact that he has three above average pitches. His fastball runs anywhere from 91 to 96 mph, usually sitting between 92 and 94 mph; a (“plus”) tight curve that he throws from 79 to 82 mph; and a splitter. I would say that those are pretty good reasons. 2009 was his only professional year pitching and here is how he did:

2009 (A) 10.8 K/9 | 5.5 BB/9 | 100 IP | .36 HR/9 | 3.87 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 19/27 GS/G

Other than his blinding amount of walks, those numbers aren’t too shabby. However, it is important to note that he is still a very raw pitcher (much like is). He doesn’t have the years of pitching to back up his enormous amounts of talent. He had 13 wild pitches and hit 10 batters, and walked way too many hitters to be highly effective. The strikeout rate is fabulous, he kept the ball in the park and his FIP is 3.45 while he left 67 percent of runners on base. Beyond the walk rate, the rest of his peripherals are very promising. If he can even remove a third of those walks, he could be on the radar of many fantasy players by late 2010 and definitely in 2011. He is still very young, but don’t forget this name.

Andrew Lambo | OF | Los Angeles Dodgers | DOB: 8/11/88 (21) | 6-3 | 190 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left | LAD #1 prospect according to Baseball America (2009)
Cube Ratings: Power (87) | Speed (16) | Contact (31) | Patience (51)

Yet another Dodger, but at least one with a bit more flair. Yes, flair and controversy. Many sites and other non-Baseball America sources don’t rank Lambo quite so high. Baseball Intellect ranked him the Dodgers fourth best prospect calling him, “average at best,” and question his declining patience among other notable aspects of his game. However, you look at him, and he still has tons of talent. Coming out of high school, his maturity was questioned because he had to transfer to a school 35 miles from his house due to truancy and reefer (it’s a gateway drug!). Today, most say that he has out grown his childhood and is much more mature.

Lambo, other than having an amazing last name, possesses tremendous amounts of raw power (not Ryan Howard power) and bat speed. Matter of fact, that is truly his most promising talent. Baseball America says that he runs well below average and is an average fielder at best with a quick first step to make up for his sluggish speed. He did earn a Midwest (A-level) League All-Star appearance in 2008 and in 2007 he earned the Dodgers’ Guy Willmen Award as the best first year player. Baseball America also said that if he did well at AA, he’d be up a the end of the 2010 season. Here are his numbers before I say anything more:

2007 (R) .343/.440/.482 | 181 AB | 15/5/.174 (2B/HR/ISO) | 15.6 K% | 14.4 BB% | .399 BABIP
2008 (totals) .295/.351/.482 | 508 AB | 35/18 (2B/HR) | .353 BABIP
08 (A) .288/.346/.462 | 475 AB | 33/15/.174 (2B/HR/ISO) | 23.3 K% | 8 BB% | .349 BABIP
08 (AA) .389/.421/.407 | 36 AB | 2/3/.361 (2B/HR/ISO) | 25 K% | 5.3 BB% | .458 BABIP
2009 (AA) .256/.311/.407 | 492 AB | 39/11/.150 (2B/HR/ISO) | 19.3 K% | 7.3 BB% | .298 BABIP
Career Vs LHP .317/.372/.523 | 388 AB
Career Vs RHP .270/.333/.422 | 793 AB

I don’t expect to see him up near the end of next season. A few things of significance to note. The first being the high BABIP until this year; secondly the trend of walks; and lastly, the gap power and ISO trend. Lambo’s ISO at Rookie and A ball are identical and his ISO at AA is pretty close too. However, since Rookie ball, he has seen his walk rate cut in half, his strikeouts increase slightly and, finally, a season in which his BABIP isn’t inflating his overall numbers. It will be interesting to see what next year brings and if he can claim that the 2009 is his outlier. On a couple of positive notes, he is hitting a lot of doubles and may see those turn into home runs. He also doesn’t strikeout like Mark Reynolds.

At only 21, the homer power isn’t quite there, his patience has deteriorated, and many of his early minor league numbers are highly inflated due to his BABIP. Not to be negative on his upside, but James Loney was suppose to turn his doubles into home runs too and he never did. Other than Ethier and Kemp, I cannot recall their last top power hitting prospect to actually do what they were drafted for. With that said, Lambo could be the next Loney or Ethier. He could continue to hit doubles with marginal power (Loney) or eventually hit like Ethier. Keep in mind that Ethier didn’t get his ISO up and over over .200 until last year at age 26 (and hit 20 HR) and this year he has hit 31 HR. I would expect to see Lambo start at AA again next year as he struggled quite a bit, and a mid-season promotion to AAA with a September call up.

Looking around the jumbled mess of the internet, I found this rather interesting article over at FanGraphs detailing the bust rate of minors league players relative to their letter grade given by scouts. The grading scale was based upon Baseball America. It is short, interesting, and it pertains; so go read it. Secondly, Jason Heyward was named Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America on last Friday. I talked about him here and Grey talked about him here. Keep your eye on him next spring because the Minor League Player of the Year usually is in the majors by the next year (it was with Wieters, Jay Bruce, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and you get the point); whether it is to start the season, or by the middle of the season, he’ll be up sooner rather than latter.

Josh Lindblom | SP/RP | Los Angeles Dodgers | DOB: 6/15/87 | 6-5 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | LAD #4 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (96) | K-Rating (85) | Efficiency (95)

He transferred twice while in college, and during his last transfer when he went to Purdue, he switched from a starting pitcher to their closer. This caused his draft value to drop the following year. The Dodgers swooped in and drafted Lindblom in the second round. The Dodgers wanted to stretch him back out into a starter and they did that in 2008. He didn’t pitch that much in 2008 because of his career innings and that he had to be stretched back out. However, this year he started 14 games (11 in AA), but he pitched out of the bullpen in 17 games at AAA. This could be for a few reasons, though I am speculating as I didn’t find any article detailing the switch back. The first reason I can think of is to keep his innings down but allow him to work on his pitches all year. Secondly, the Dodgers want him in the closer role (I doubt it). Lastly, there is no third option.

Lindblom possesses a fastball that can reach 96 mph when he pitches out of the bullpen, but it stays around 89 to 94 mph when he starts; a slider with a fair amount of lateral movement; a splitter that induces a good share of ground balls and strikeouts; and a change-up that he rarely uses (as of spring 2008). He has a striking command of the mound, a smooth delivery, but his high arm slot makes it easy for batters to pick up the pitch. On a praiseworthy note, Peter Gammons during spring training said of Lindblom, “Best young arm I saw all spring in Arizona.” Here are his stats:

08 (totals) 9.8 K/9 | 1.3 BB/9 | 34 IP | .5 HR/9 | 2.12 ERA | .71 WHIP | 9/9 GS/G
(A) 10.24 K/9 | 1.24 BB/9 | 29 IP | .62 HR/9 | 1.86 ERA | .62 WHIP | 8/8 GS/G
(AA) 7.2 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 5 IP | 0 HR/9 | 3.6 ERA | 1.2 WHIP | 1/1 GS/1
09 (totals) 7.7 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 96 1/3 IP | .7 HR/9 | 3.83 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 14/34 GS/G
(AA) 7.22 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 57 1/3 IP | .63 HR/9 | 4.71 ERA | 1.2 WHIP | 11/14 GS/G
(AAA) 8.3 K/9 | 2.77 BB/9 | 39 IP | .69 HR/9 | 2.54 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 3/20 GS/G
As SP 7.67 K/9 | 2.18 BB/9 | 95 IP | .66 HR/9 | .98 WHIP
As RP 8.92 K/9 | 1.24 BB/9 | 36 1/3 IP | .25 HR/9 | 1.05 WHIP
Career .269 BABIP

He has performed well in both roles (starter and reliever) and could be used out of the rotation as soon as spring 2010. He has above average control (2.1 BB/9 for career), above average strikeout rates (8.2 K/9) but he has only pitched in 130 professional innings. If the Dodgers want to use him as a starter, his innings should be severally limited. If he makes the team as a reliever he could help all you, MR. Bs (Middle Reliever Believers). Realistically, the Dodgers are going to make him a June call up to save on arbitration and his innings. He looks like he could be an adequate number three starter or top of the line closer or end of the bullpen-type pitcher.

Chris Marrero | 1B | Washington Nationals | DOB: 7/2/88 | 6-3 | 210 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | WAS #3 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (90) | Speed (1) | Contact (34) | Patience (46)

Per request of Glenn Gulliver’s Travels, here is Washington’s top hitting prospect (with Michael Burgess a close second). Having spent most of 2008 on the disabled list with a broken fibula from catching his cleat in the dirt while sliding home, he bounced back this year hitting extremely well. He started rookie ball at age 17, which is the same age Vitters started rookie ball. However, Marrero has played in a league higher than Vitters at each age jump, performing far better at each level. Marrero is projected to hit 20 to 25 homers with decent average and above average plate coverage and average plate discipline. He is a below average runner and defensive range at first base, but does have a good arm and soft hands – which serve little worth if he cannot get to the ball. Scouts, managers and team reps rave about his work ethic and have high hopes. Here are his stats:

06 (R) .309/.374/.420 | 81 AB | 0/.111 HR/ISO | 23.5 K% | 9 BB% | .403 BABIP
07 (totals).275/.338/.484 | 484 AB | 23 HR
A .293/.337/.545 | 222 AB | 14/.252 HR/ISO | 17.6 K% | 5.9 BB% | .302 BABIP
A+ .259/.338/.431 | 255 AB | 9/.173 HR/ISO | 24.7 K% | 11.1 BB% | .338 BABIP
08 (A+) .250/.325/.435 | 289 AB | 11/.203 HR/ISO | 21.5 K% | 8.9 BB% | .279 BABIP
09 (totals) .284/.358/.452 | 489 AB | 17 HR
A+ .287/.360/.464 | 414 AB | 16/.176 HR/ISO | 23.4 K% | 9.2 BB% | .312 BABIP
AA .267/.345/.387 | 75 AB | 1/.120 HR/ISO | 24 K% | 9.6 BB% | .339 BABIP
Career:
Against LHP .300/.386/.462 | 327 AB | 13 HR
Against RHP .269/.333/.458 | 970 AB | 37 HR

The Nationals have not produced a top hitter since Ryan Zimmerman back in 2006. They have had talented players in their system, they just don’t pan out. Marrero is by far their best power hitting prospect and, at only age 21, he still has time to produce. He should start in AA to open the 2010 season and possibly move up to AAA by the middle of June and get a chance to show himself to the world by September – assuming he doesn’t get injured or struggle with the jump to AAA. However his promotions go, he still strikeouts too much for a hitter to have an average over .275 and his plate discipline is adequate – nothing spectacular, but nothing awful – and his ISO has been average too. He isn’t the sexy power hitter like Mike Stanton, the all round player like Heyward, or even the hitting scarce position prospect like Carlos Santana. However, he reminds me of Kyle Blanks did this year before he went down with an injury. He has the potential to be the Nationals starting first baseman by 2011.