Fantasy Baseball Advice

Arizona Diamondbacks 2009 Minor Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (26) | 2008 (15) | 2007 (3) | 2006 (1) | 2005 (13) | 2004 (13)

Major League Record and Minor League Affiliates Records
MLB: 70 – 92 (NL West – sixth worst record in MLB)
AAA: 79 – 64 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 66 – 74 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 76 (California League)
A: 59 – 78 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 28 – 48 (Northwest League)
R: 40 –36 (Pioneer League)

The Run Down
Arizona has traded away seven top 17 prospects prior to the 2009 season (#1 – OF – Carlos Gonzales (Rockies), #3 – SP – Brett Anderson (A’s), #6 – 2B/SS/OF – Emilio Bonifacio (Nationals, eventually Marlins), #7 – OF – Aaron Cunningham (A’s), #8 – 1B – Chris Carter (Mets), #13 – SP – Greg Smith (Rockies), #17 – P – Dallas Buck (Reds)). The Diamondbacks have acquired copious amounts of talent through trades and have sent even more talent away in trades. The Dan Haren trade definitely depleted their top talent (Gonzales, Anderson, Cunningham, Carter (who was acquired for 11 days from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Carlos Quentin), and Smith). Haren has pitched extremely well for Arizona, however, Brett Anderson pitched well for the A’s too – not nearly as dominate, but eight years younger than Haren. Trading the farm for essentially one player may not have been the best decision. Josh Byrnes, the D-Back GM since 2006 (which coincidentally is the year their farm talent was ranked number one), has traded, signed and created a team that Baseball America says, “… [Has] created a roadmap of how to tumble from the top ranking to near the bottom in near record time. Arizona has drafted conservatively, leading to a lack of power arms and bats, and traded prospects aggressively to supplement a young, talented big league team.”

To add insult to injury, one of the games top power arms and their top prospect for 2009, Jarrod Parker, is having Tommy John surgery. In the Scouting the Unknown article I wrote regarding Parker, he was just visiting Dr. James Andrew about his “’elbow tightness’ that caused him to be DL’d on August 5th.” Now he’s out for at least a year. If not for his injury, Parker would have been in the same boat next year as Tommy Hanson was this year. With a rotation of Haren, Brandon Webb, Max Scherzer, Doug Davis and fill-in fifth starter, the Diamondbacks would love to improve from within. Webb is a huge question mark, Scherzer still needs to learn how to pitch and not just throw, Davis should be a long reliever or a fifth starter. On the hitting front, other than Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, this team has very few sure things. Is Miguel Montero the real deal? Was the 2009 Stephen Drew the real Stephen Drew? Who plays second base? Can Conor Jackson return from Valley Fever? How good will Gerardo Parra be and what do you do with Eric Byrnes? They have a ton of questions to answer this off-season. Here are some players that could help sooner rather than later:

Graduating Prospects
#2 – Gerardo Parra (OF), #23 – Clay Zavada (RP), #8 – Billy Buckner (SP), #3 – Daniel Schlereth (RP), and Esmerling Vasquez (RP)

Players in the Arizona Fall League
Pitchers – Bryan Augenstein | Tom Layne | Scott Maine | Cesar Valdez
Hitters – Brandon Allen | Pedro Ciriaco | Cole Gillespie

Players of Interest
Numbers prior to a players name are their prospect rankings according to Baseball America 2009. Additionally, deviating from previous articles, the “Players of Interest” section will focus on higher level players or players that may end up on the MLB roster at some point during the 2010 season.

Hitters
Brandon Allen | 1B | AA/AAA | 23 | .298/.375/.503 | 447 AB | 24 2B | 20 HR | 85:50 K:BB | .205 ISO
Once he was acquired by the Diamondbacks from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, he raked in Triple-A. He was called-up to the Majors on the 21st of August and hit .202/.284/.385 striking out 38.5% of his 104 at-bats (40:12 K:BB). With Chad Tracy or Conor Jackson as the competition for first base next year, Allen may get a chance out of spring. However, a June call up would be more likely.

#9 (@ MIL) – Cole Gillespie | OF | A+/AAA | 25 | .273/.372/.472 | 417 AB | 20 2B | 12 3B | 13 HR | 18/5 SB/CS | 98:65 K:BB | .199 ISO
Gillespie was acquired in the Felipe Lopez trade. Playing only a month at High-A, the Brewers promoted him to Triple-A because he played at Double-A all of 2008. He is a little on the old side for a top prospect. Nevertheless, hitting 12, 14 and 13 homers these past three years isn’t overly impressive, but paired with 18, 16,17, and 18 steals in his four years as a minor leaguer, he looks like a poor man’s Mike Cameron. That isn’t terrible, just not jaw dropping nor Braun-like exciting. He is sneaky boring like Shin-Soo Choo.

#14 – Pedro Ciriaco | SS | AA | 22 | .296/.319/.367 | 469 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | 38/10 SB/CS | 71:16 K:BB | .070 ISO
Bad news, defense is still an issue.  Good news, his steal efficiency has improved. The majority of his promise lies in his steals and quick defense. He still has too many errors to be a defensive improvement over Drew and he will never hit like him either. However, maybe moving Reynolds to first base, Drew to third, and Ciriaco to SS eventually may prove to be a better defensive infield for the Diamondbacks.

Pitchers
#1 – Jarrod Parker | SP (RH) | A+/AA | 20 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 97 1/3 IP | 3.14 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | .353 BABIP | 73.2 LOB% | 3.21 FIP
Here is an article about Parker rehabbing. The StU article lays him out pretty well. Keep in mind that he won’t be near the majors for at least another 18 months.

Bryan Augenstein | SP (RH) | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 81 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.04 WHIP
Great control, decent strikeout rates, and actually pitched in the Majors this year (17 IP, threw 45 2/3 IP at Double-A, 36 IP at Triple-A). Not sure why he wasn’t ranked this year as he pitched well at Single and High-A last year. So far this fall, he has pitched decent in the AFL – 9:1 K:BB in 7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER

#5 – Wade Miley | SP (LH) | A/A+ | 22 | 7.1 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 128 2/3 IP | 4.20 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 67.2 LOB% | 3.38 FIP
Offering three above average pitches, Miley’s biggest concern was sloppy command. He throws his fastball between 89 and 92 mph, a slider that’s his best pitch, and an average change-up. He threw 113 innings in 2008, and looks like he is following the Verducci rule.

Honorable Mentions
#26 – Leyson Septimo | RP (LH) | AA | 23 | 11 K/9 | 7 BB/9 | 56 2/3 IP
A lefty power arm that throws in the upper 90s but cannot locate his pitches. He had a 9.7 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9 ratios in 2008.

Winston “Ollie” Linton | OF | A+ | 23 | .295/.394/.399 | 491 AB | 28 2B | 10 3B | 1 HR | 28/14 SB/CS | 104:65 K:BB | .104 ISO
Strikes out way too much for a slap hitter. The steals are nice, and he hits the ball into the gaps well.

Josh Collmenter | SP (RH) | A+ | 23 | 9.4 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 145 1/3 IP | 4.15 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 63.8 LOB% | 3.12 FIP
Marc Hulet mentions that Collmenter may actually be a bit better than his numbers state. Had the most strikeouts in the Diamondbacks farm system. Random fact, his hometown is Homer, Michigan. Arizona hopes that name doesn’t translate into any baseball stat.

Patrick McAanley | SP (LH) | A+ | 23 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 147 IP | 4.41 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 71.9 LOB% | 4.08 FIP
Threw the second most innings in the Diamondbacks farm system and had the second most strikeouts. Important to note that he is a lefty in a system that lacks many left-handed arms.

Dan Taylor | SP (LH) | A(ss) | 21 | 11.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 63 2/3 IP | 3.53 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 72.2 LOB% | 3.03 FIP
After getting drafted in the 2009 draft (in round 21), he posted the best ERA, WHIP, and AVE against in the Diamondbacks farm system. He pitched as a starter and reliever. He also posted a 1.24 Ground out to fly out ratio. Keep an eye on this young man.

Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | R | 21 | .334/.408/.638 | 287 AB | 27 2B | 18 HR | 74:36 K:BB | .303 ISO
Easily posted the most impressive raw numbers in the entire Diamondbacks farm. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2009 draft, Goldschmidt absolutely raked, had good walk rates, but needs to reduce his strikeouts. I would expect him to play at High-A and Double-A next year.

Chicago Cubs 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)

Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: 83 – 78 (NL Central)
AAA: 72 – 72 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 71 – 69 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 71 (Florida State League)
A: 81 – 57 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 34 – 52 (Northwest League)
R: 29 – 27 (Arizona League)

The Run Down
Two really interesting factoids from Baseball America’s preview on the 2009 Cubs, factoid number 1 – “Chicago hasn’t gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995; factoid number 2 – other than Geovany Soto, who as drafted in round 11 in 2001, they “haven’t developed a position player it signed into an All-Star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.” With a couple of trades this past year (Sean Gallagher and catcher Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden; Jose Ceda (#4 ranked prospect) for Kevin Gregg) the Cubs traded away a third of their top ten prospects. Through trades in the recent past, Chicago has built a contender each year at the expense of their farm system.

After another disappointing season on the north side, the Cubs have several pressing issues about their team. Milton Bradley was a flop, Rich Harden is a free agent, Alfonso Soriano got old really fast, and second base was a tale of two halves. Bradley looks like he on his way out of town, Harden may be too costly to keep around, Soriano is on the tail end of his career, and there are few solid options from within to replace the outfield spot of Bradley let alone another injury ravaged season of Soriano. On a positive note, Derrek Lee was his old self hitting 35 homers and .306/.394/.579, Randy Wells came out of nowhere to have an extraordinarily great rookie year, and Ryan Theriot provided good defense and sufficient offense from the shortstop position.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Cashner, John Gaub, Blake Parker, James Russell – All SP
Welington Castilo (C) ,Starlin Castro (SS), Josh Vitters (3B)

Players of Interest
*A number prior to a player’s name indicates Baseball America’s 2009 prospect Ranking

#1 – Josh Vitters | 3B | A/A+ | 19 | totals – .284/.314/.456 | 458 AB | 18 HR | .172 ISO | 65:12 K:BB
If you’ve been reading Razzball all summer, you would have saw here that I wasn’t sold on Vitters being a stud major league hitter in his career. This isn’t to start a debate, but a harsh analysis on Vitters may not be terrible. Each prospect has their pros and cons. I will look at Vitters again next summer and see where he is at. His overall total numbers look pretty good, but he struggled at High-A this year. Look at his slash line at each level:

A – .316/.351/.535 in 269 AB
A+ – .238/.260/.344 in 189 AB

Not what you want your hitter doing upon a promotion; granted his BABIP at Single-A was .330 and at High-A was .258 indicating he was having some “bad-luck.” He is only 19, is a level-or-so above his age, but his walk ratio will start to become a larger red flag as he progresses through the minors unless he can change his walking ways. He still is one of the best young hitting prospects in the entire majors, so patience may be a HUGE key (and for me, as well).

Kyler Burke | OF | A | 21 | .303/.405/.505 | 465 AB | 43 2B | 15 HR | .202 ISO | 99:78 K:BB
2009 was a career year for Burke. He cut his strikeout rate by a third and increased his walk-rate from 7.7% to 14.4% since 2008. With an aging outfield in Chicago, he may be a bright spot if he can reproduce these numbers at higher levels. Take this all with a grain of salt, this year was his first full year at Single-A, but he has had half seasons there in the past two seasons.

#10 – Hak-Ju Lee | SS | A(ss) | 18 | .330/.399/.420 | 264 AB | .090 ISO | 25/8 SB/CS | 50:31 K:BB | .401 BABIP
Chicago’s big international signing out of Korea did pretty well for his first year in America. He looks to be a light hitting, defensive shortstop with some speed. Keep in mind he had an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Being so young, his ceiling is still sky high. Look for him to play at Single-A in 2010 and ideally progress to Double-A by the end of ‘10.

#7 – Starlin Castro | SS | A+/AA | 19 | totals – .299/.432/.392 | 429 AB | .093 ISO | 28/11 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB
Another prized shortstop in the Cubs organization put things together this year.  The upper brass is really hoping that Theriot can keep the spot warm for Castro. He has more speed than his steals would even lead one to believe as he is still learning the stealing craft. Playing predominately at Single-A, his late season promotion to Double-A proved that he could handle the higher competition. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010, even if he performs above expectations at Arizona this fall.

#3 – Andrew Cashner | SP (RHP) | A+/AA | 22 | totals – 6.7 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 100 1/3 IP | 2.60 ERA | 1.18 WHIP
Once he was promoted to Double-A his stats started to fall. Both his strikeouts and walks took large hits at Double-A. One positive is he only gave up one homer all season. His ranking should take a hit as he didn’t produce like a top prospect. If he has a strong Fall League performance, he may be nearing a mid-season look or September call up in 2010. Look for him to start in Double-A.

#9 – Jay Jackson | SP (RHP) | A+/AA/AAA| 22 | totals – 9 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 127 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.22 WHIP
His level spread is a bit deceiving as he only started and pitched in one game at Triple-A. Once he started pitching in Double-AA his walk rate went from .8 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings at High-A to 4.2 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings at Double-A. His dominance in High-A is truly what makes his stats look really impressive. He might start 2010 in Double-A, waiting for the warmer weather of the Pacific Coast games, or could start in Triple-A.  Either way, he should be given the chance to play in the majors next summer.

Jeff Antigua | SP (LHP) | A(ss)/A | 19 | totals – 8.9 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 68 2/3 IP | 3.01 ERA | .99 WHIP
A little under the radar, Antigua pitched brilliantly aside from his seven home runs he gave up. Being left-handed will increase his stock greatly as the Cubs don’t have many top left-handed prospects. He’ll probably start again in Single-A with a mid-season promotion to Double-A.

Honorable Mentions
Brett Jackson | OF | R/A(ss)/A | 20
Drafted number 31 in the 2009 draft. Hit seven of his eight homers, 11 of his 13 stolen bases, and five of his six doubles at Single-A.

Rebel Ridling | 1B | A | 23
As both ranked first basemen above him in the Cubs organization have graduated, look for Ridling to be a prospect rated in the low twenties for 2010. He finally produced in his second year at Single-A. He cut his strikeouts by nearly half, almost doubled his walk rate (not hard when you start so low), yet he still has a long ways to be more than organizational depth.

#16 – Tyler Colvin | OF | A+/AA | 23
Actually got promoted in September with three hits in 17 at-bats.

#8 – Ryan Flaherty | 3B/2B | A | 22
Hit 20 homers in 485 at-bats while producing an above average slash line of .276/.344/.470 and a decent K:BB of 98:50.

#18 – Chris Carpenter | SP (RHP) | A/A+/AA | 23
Finally moved up a few levels to match his talent and age. Still performed below expectations at each level besides Single-A, while pitching the best overall at High-A

Detroit Tigers 2009 Minor Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (28) | 2008 (29) | 2007 (14) | 2006 (13) | 2005 (29) | 2004 (22)

Record of Major League Team and Affiliate
Majors: 86 – 77 (AL Central)
AAA: 73 – 70 (International League)
AA: 71 – 70 (Eastern League)
A+: 55 – 75 (Florida League)
A: 81 – 59 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 35 – 39 (New York / Pennsylvania League)
R: 29 – 30 (Gulf League)

The Run Down

As you all know, Detroit epically choked in the final week of the season. Seeing how the Twins were swept out of the playoffs by the Yankees, it’s fair to say the Tigers saved face by missing their chance for the same outcome. But what about the pieces to get to the brink of the playoffs?  The trade for Jarrod Washburn sent one promising pitcher (Mauricio Robles – #24 ranked prospect) and serviceable arm (Luke French) away; acquiring Aubrey Huff cost them another top ranked pitching prospect (#10 Brett Jacobson), granted he was having a pretty marginal year. These trades didn’t cost them their farm, but it didn’t help their playoff push or their future.

With an aging roster (29.9 average age), several key free agents (Placido Polanco, Adam Everett, Washburn, Fernando Rodney, and Brandon Lyon), and the psychological trauma caused by their collapse, the Tigers have a lot of work cut out for them. There isn’t much internal help at shortstop, and only have low minors pitchers who have done above average. Of their major league ready talent, only Scott Sizemore, second base, has even excelled in the minors this year. They have serviceable call ups, but no immediate impact players like they did this year with Rick Porcello (*tangent – I always want to call him Rick Portabello, but I hate mushrooms.). Porcello had a below average strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), good control (2.7 BB/9), and kept the ball on the ground (1.23 GO/AO) this year. Nothing great, but he will need a good defense behind him to do that well again next year. Seeing as the Tigers called him up this year from Advanced-A, there is a possibility of them calling up Casey Crosby next year, who played at Single-A. Having the front half of your rotation consisting of Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson (will he/can he pitch like 2009 in ‘10?) and Rick Porcello is a good thing, but with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen aging faster than Jose Contreras when he gained a few years with a single sentence, they may have to spend more money in free agency to keep their team above .500 next year because their minors won’t.

Players of Interest
*A number prior to a players name indicates Baseball America’s prospect ranking.

#7 – Scott Sizemore | 2B | AA/AAA | 24 | totals – .308/.390/.503 | 520 AB | .195 ISO | 21/4 SB/CS | 95:64 K:BB
Hitting well at both Double and Triple-A should have Tigers fans excited (though his BABIP was .347 – above average). He is essentially Placido Polanco with the bat – meaning he doesn’t strikeout much or hit many homers, but hits for decent average. He is an average defender and runner. The only other thing to note is he broke his hamate bone (the power sapping wrist injury) in 2008 and only fully recovered this year. If the Tigers don’t sign Polanco, look for Polanco Jr., I mean Scott Sizemore, to get a chance to start at second base next spring.

Brennan Boesch | RF | AA | 24 | .275/.318/.510 | 527 AB | .235 ISO | 11/2 SB/CS | 127:33 K:BB | .318 BABIP
Because of an aging outfield and the fact that Boesch finally broke out this year, makes him worthy to note. He has never hit more than 10 homers in a season or had a full season of a OPS over .700, strikes out too much, doesn’t walk enough, but his numbers weren’t really inflated by BABIP either making this year seem a bit more legit. Look for him to play at Triple-A next year and be a feasible call-up mid-summer if he continues his power hitting ways.

#9 – Dusty Ryan | C | AAA | 24 | .257/.359/.455 | 202 AB | .198 ISO | 64:29 K:BB
#20 – Alex Avila | C | AA | 22 | .264/.365/.450 | 329 AB | .185 ISO | 77:52 K:BB
I want to combined these two catchers because they both got called up this September. Avila went 17 for 61 with 5 homers and Ryan went 4 for 26 with no homers, but went 14 for 44 with two homers last year. Avila is a doubles hitter and a below average defender as he only recently became a catcher (the switch happened in 2008). Ryan is the better defender, but not quite the hitter Avila is. Look for both of them to duke it out for a back-up role in the spring.

#4 – Casey Crosby | SP (LHP) | A | 20 | 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 104 2/3 IP | 2.41 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | .290 BABIP 50.2 GB% | 36.4 FB% | .203 AVE against
Here is my StU article on him that I wrote at the end of September. I like him a bit more after I noticed that Porcello was only in Advanced-A when he made the majors with worse peripherals. I woudn’t be surprised to see him ranked the Tigers number one prospect going into 2010. Plus, he is a power throwing lefty.

Brayan Villareal | RP (RHP) | 22 | A | 10.3 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 103 1/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | .324 BABIP | 40.9 GB% | 38.1 FB% | 11 LD% | .230 AVE against
Great strikeout rate, average walk rate, nothing that makes you question his numbers. He’ll probably get promoted to Advanced-A and Double-A next year. If he keeps similar numbers to these next year, he’ll be on everyone’s sleeper list for 2011 and 2010 September call-ups list.

#11 – Casey Fien | RP (RHP) | 25 | AAA | 10.2 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 58 IP | 3.41 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | .310 BABIP | 35.9 GB% | 42.3 FB% | 18.6 LD% | .262 AVE against
Relievers stats are harder to predict year in and year out as they have such a small sample size. He supposedly has a great 91 to 92 MPH sinker, but his ground ball percentage would lead us to think otherwise. He may get a chance to pitch out of the Tigers pen next year with Rodney and/or Lyon leaving/not getting signed. His stuff is nothing to scoff at, but he isn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher or a power pitcher. I would expect him to struggle early if he makes the major league roster out of spring training.

#8 – Cody Satterwhite | RP (RHP) | 22 | AA | 9.5 K/9 | 4.9 BB/9 | 49 1/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 1.48 WHIP | .318 BABIP | 46.8 GB% | 35.3 FB% | 16.5 LD% | .250 AVE against
Another reliever, but he has a power fastball that ranges between 94 and 97 mph with late movement. He also has a slider and a change up but cannot control either of them very well. Speaking of control, he doesn’t have much of that working for him. He should be promoted to Triple-A next year with serious consideration for the major league roster only if there are injuries or in September.

San Diego Padres 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (29) | 2008 (12) | 2007 (29) | 2006 (29) | 2005 (27) | 2004 (25)

Record of Each Affiliate:
Majors: 75 – 87
AAA: 60 – 84
AA: 70 – 70
A+: 73 – 67
A: 94 – 36
A(ss): 34 – 24
R: 28 – 28

The Run Down

The Padres, sans Peavy, are Adrian Gonzalez’s team. Too bad beyond him there are only a few stars ready for the additional limelight. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of young talent already in the majors (Mat Latos, Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, Tony Gwynn Jr., Clayton Richards, Wade LeBlanc, and Kevin Kouzmanoff). However, this talent will be heavily relied upon unless the Padres spend some more money. Considering Peavy was traded to save money, I highly doubt that this will happen. There are also rumors swirling around that Bell may be traded. Additionally, Kevin Towers was fired as the general manager, however, leaving a pretty rosy situation for whomever they hire as their new General Manager. There is plenty of salary space, a 2008 draft class that is performing out of their mind (they did have a record of 94 and 36 – a 2.5 wins to ever loss), tons of young talent that will be cheap for years to come, and Gonzalez. This 2008 draft class has four players taken between the first and second rounds that had great seasons this year (James Darnell, Jaff Decker, Allan Dysktra, Logan Forsythe – and they are all hitters). The new GM will definitely still have to decide whether Adrian Gonzalez should be traded to open up first base for Blanks (would be a bad move as Gonzalez has taken a leadership role in the clubhouse); trade Kouzmanoff so Headley could play his natural position; and/or trade Bell. I am not going to speculate for there are other authors/bloggers/columnists who will do that.

You will notice that the Padres had an above-average ranking in 2008 and free falling to the bottom. Why? According to Baseball America, it was a combination of top prospects graduating (Nick Hundley and Headley), and several top prospects, especially pitchers, having terrible seasons in 2008 (Matt Antonelli [2B] went from #2 to #9; LeBlanc [SP] from #4 to #12; Drew Miller (SP) from #5 to #26; Steve Garrison [SP] from #6 to #22; and Will Inman [SP] from #7 to #18) and their 2004 first round draft pick Matt Bush [SS] has been an utter failure. The trade of Peavy returned several top 30 pitching prospects from the White Sox farm system (Aaron Poreda [LHP] #3; Clayton Richards [LHP] #5; Dexter Carter [RHP] #23 (who had the best fastball in Chicago’s farm); Adam Russell [RHP] #27), granted only Richards paid dividends this year while the others struggled mightily in the minors once they were Padres’ property. The trade of Scott Hairston to the Athletics brought in a couple of young right-handed power arms in Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano (with a player to be named later that ended up being Sean Gallagher). Italiano had some major injuries (labrum surgery on right shoulder in ‘06 and a skull fracture in ‘07) but has recovered and Webb is a bit unrefined but received a September call up. Only time will tell if these trades will benefit the Padres, other than saving them money of course.

Players of Interest
The players closest to the majors have either entered the majors (Latos, Blanks, Venable, etc.) or they aren’t worth mentioning. Antonelli was terrible this year at Triple-A and Kulbacki was just as poor at Double-AA. Thus, many of their top prospects that performed well are in the low minors.

Simon Castro | SP | A | 21 10.2 K/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 140 1/3 IP | 3.33 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
Baseball America’s breakout prospect (ranked #14) pulled through with that prediction throwing a dominating slider and fastball that peaks at 97-98 mph that averages between 92 to 95 mph. He improved his walk rate and control while keeping his strikeouts near his prior performance. Look for him to start in High-A with a quick promotion to Double-A and a possible promotion to Triple-A or the majors by mid-August. I could see him doing really well again next year (as long as he continues to induce ground balls against righties (47.6GB% vs RH), but does have a pretty decent rate of 39.8 GB% overall and keeps his control in check).

Jaff Decker | OF | A | 19 | in 258 AB – .299/.442/.514 | 25 2B | 16 HR | 92:85 K:BB | ranked #3
Other than having an awkward first name, Decker had an awesome year. I am not even sure where to start with this lefty hitting youngster. His numbers are helped by having other top hitting prospects Darnell and Dykstra hitting around him too. He has tremendous plate awareness, plus power “potential” and a stellar arm (think low 90’s fastball). Oh, did I mention he turns only 20 in February? He should moved up to High-A and reach Double-A by mid-June if all goes well.

James Darnell | 3B | A/A+ | 22 | @A in 222 AB – .329/.468/.518 | 17 2B | 7 HR | 51:57 K:BB | @A+ in 235 AB – .294/.377/.533 | 18 2B | 13 HR | 38:30 K:BB | ranked #10
Looks like Kouzmanoff and Headley better start hitting or Darnell (ranked #10) may sneak up on them. With good plate discipline, a plus runner, average range at third, a strong arm, and the ability to play RF if the Padres see fit, Darnell’s future is looking brighter. Additionally, he was one of three South Carolina players taken in the 2008 draft (after Justin Smoak and Reese Havens), but Baseball America says some consider him the better athlete with more potential.

Allan Dykstra | 1B | A | 21 | in 411 AB | .226/.397/.375 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 103:102 K:BB | ranked #8
Looks like Jack Cust has a new competitor in the strikeout-walk-homer triad competition. Well, that is if Dykstra can learn to hit more homers. He has something called avascular necrosis of the hip which is a condition that results in the hip joint not receiving blood. The result is pain in the groin, butt and down the front of the thigh. Eventually stiffness of the joint (hip in this case) or a limp while walking will occur and the long term effect is interference with sleep. He got this condition from falling during a basketball game. Pretty freak incident. However, that happened before he was drafted last year, but one must remember that this is a degenerative disease. He hit for average in college, has great zone control but does strikeout quite frequently, has good power, poor swing mechanics with his lower body, below average defender, runner and athlete. Looks better fit for an AL team.

Logan Forsythe | 3B | A+/AA | 21 | (totals) in 480 AB – .300/.429/.440 | 22 2B | 11 HR | 111:102 K:BB | ranked #11
He has had several injuries, but this year he was scrap free. He has a “short, compact swing; good defense; and an above average arm.” Supposedly, he won’t develop tons of homer power but great gap power as he has a natural line-drive swing. He didn’t do amazing like Jaff Decker, but he was pretty solid. As with most young hitters, he struggled at Double-A and will probably open there again.

Sawyer Carroll | OF | A/A+/AA | 23 (totals) in 479 AB – .317/.413/.489 | 40 2B | 9 3B | 8 HR | 19/9 SB/CS | 106:80 K:BB
Stellar name, tons of gap power, decent speed on the base paths but needs to be more efficient. Granted there is a small sample size, he never hit below a .316 average (A), a .402 on-base percentage (A+), and a .438 slugging percentage (AA) [.316 /.410/.464 (A), .320/.402/.531 (A+), .317/.440/.488 (AA)]. I am going to assume he will make Baseball America’s rankings this year as top 30 Padres prospect. He is a bit old to be a stellar prospect, but he still has some potential to surprise. Plus, with the year he had, his age now matches the level of play he should be playing in – Double-A, and should open there in 2010 season.

Wynn Pelzer | SP | A+ | 23 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 150 2/3 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.28 WHIP
Threw 32 more innings than last year, improved his strikeout rate, regressed in his walk rate, but overall had a pretty good year. He doesn’t change speeds well, throwing his fastball between 93 and 95 mph, possesses a hard biting slider, and a poor change and splitter. Long term he looks better as a power reliever in the mold of a Brad Lidge. Look for him to move in the Double-A rotation with a September call up as a reliever.

Cody Decker | OF | R | 22 | in 198 AB – .354/.421/.717 | 21 2B | 15 HR | 42:19 K:BB
Not sure if Jaff[y] and Cody are brothers — couldn’t find it on the internet. Did find out Cody had 47 homers in college at UCLA playing first base and was drafted in the 22nd round this year. Matter of fact, he hit 36 homers this year alone if you combine his college homers and Rookie league homers (though that is a poor thing to do). Just look at his Cube ratings. He is doing pretty well for himself so far. He should start at Single-A next year.

Houston Astros 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm talent ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (30) | 2008 (30) | 2007 (22) | 2006 (20) | 2005 (22) | 2004 (29)

Record of each Affiliate
Majors: 74 – 88
AAA: 63 – 89
AA: 61 – 69
A+: 56 – 84
A: 68 – 72
A(ss): 27 – 48
R: 18 – 38
R: 27 – 40

The Astros have one of the older rosters in the majors and they aren’t getting any younger. Previous top prospects have been busts or have failed to stay with Houston. Remember J.R. Towles? Just vaguely; and if you live by Grey’s philosophy of “plug-in-and-ignore,” the catcher position is irrelevant for fantasy purposes (however, highly important in any other form of baseball). The last top ranked prospect in the Astros farm to have high success was Hunter Pence in 2007, but before then was Roy Oswalt in 2001. The five years in between those two players have seen the likes of Carlos Hernandez (LHP, Dodgers), John Buck (C, Royals), Taylor Buchholz (RHP, Rockies), Chris Burke (2B, Diamondbacks), and Jason Hirsh (RHP, Rockies) as the top prospects and now are on other teams. Scouting, drafting, developing prospects and determining potential is extremely difficult. Potential, the catch-all term for highly touted prospects, the optimistic rehashing of a player’s future, the … “I actually get paid to talk this vaguely,” and highly educated guesses. Potential is such a dirty vague word that tricks everyone into believing all the hype surrounding a prospect.

Before more digression occurs, we were talking about the Houston Astros. Having a ranking in the lower third, and the bottom half of that third, for the last few years has been detrimental to the development of the organization. That, and having to trade to acquire major pieces for playoff runs (Beltran and Valverde) has depleted their talent pool. This year it was definitely more noticeable. They (the major league team) struggled to stay around .500 for most of the season, saw their manager get fired, and threw several rookies into the fire by the middle of the season. Bud Norris (#2 ranked prospect), Felipe Paulino (#7 ranked prospect) and Samuel Gervacio (#19 ranked prospect) pitched in the majors for a significant portion of the season. The typical growing pains of rookie pitchers was exemplified and evident in their roller-coaster season. Jason Castro (#1 ranked prospect), the future starting catcher, thrived at High-A, but struggled slugging at Double-A with a line of .293/.323/.385, compared to .309/.399/.517 at High-A. He is still at least another full year away from even remotely contributing to the major league team. Many of the top performers in the Astros farm system were in the low-minors and the upper level readily available talent was promoted to the major leagues.

Some of the players that had a good year are as followed (working from AAA and on down):

Players of Interest

Chris Johnson | 3B | AAA | 24 yrs : .281/.323/.461 | 383 AB | 20 2B | 13 HR | 90:21 K:BB
Ranked as the fifth best prospect, Johnson played well for a week at Double-A and was quickly promoted to Triple-A and thrived. Playing in the Pacific Coast League, where hitters numbers are usually inflated, his stats are pretty average at best. However, he did enough to warrant a September call-up this year (though he didn’t do well with two hits in 22 at-bats). Considered the best power hitter in their system, it still looks like he has more gap power than anything else. He hit 13 home runs and 24 doubles at Double-A last year, and this year he hit 13 homers and 20 doubles at Triple-A. With Geoff Blum manning third base with his ancient 36 year old body, look for Johnson to get a shot at starting at the hot-corner for 2010.

Chia-Jen Lo | RP | A+/AA | 23 | @AA 9K/9 | 4.6 BB/9 | 39 IP | @A+ 12.8 K/9 | 4.6 BB/9 | 25 1/3 IP
Lo throws his fastball between 91 to 96 mph with a splitter, a low 80’s slider and a marginal change-up. This was his first pro season since coming over from Taiwan and he showed great potential (there is that dirty word again) this year. In 64 1/3 innings, he averaged 10.5 K/9 with a disturbing walk rate. Used strictly as a reliever, though not a closer, he should find himself back at Double-A to refine his control, but if used out of the bullpen, we may be looking at a future stud for you Mr. B’s out there.

Kolby Clemens | C | A+ | 22 | .345/.419/.636 | 423 AB | 45 2B | 22 HR | 121 RBI | 109:51 K:BB
Hard to ignore the legend’s son. He had a monster year (along with teammate Gaston). He will always be at least a level behind Castro as they are the same age and Castro is the better prospect. However you look at it, those numbers are hard to ignore. He isn’t a ranked prospect as there are several players above him at the catcher position. Just wanted to point out his year as he had the highest OPS in the entire system.

Jon Gaston | LF | A+ | 22 | .279/.367/.598 | 518 AB | 31 2B | 35 HR | 101 RBI | 14 SB | 164:71 K:BB

Speaking of a high OPS, Gaston (and don’t reference Beauty and the Beast) had the third highest as the second bash brother in the High-A Lancaster’s lineup. He may have not been ranked in 2009’s Baseball America handbook, but after this year he should at least be on the radar. With an aging lineup in the majors and the need for power to be replaced, Gaston may have found lightning in a bottle as he only had two homers the season before. Maybe he just needed some seasoning (and 4 dozen eggs every morning).

Fernand Abad | SP | A+/AA | @AA: 8.4 K/9 | 1.9 BB/9 | 14 IP | @A+: 8.6 K/9 | .9 BB/9 | 82 2/3 IP | 1.04 WHIP

Love the name. Love the strikeout to walk ratio and The Cube loves him too (control [98] | K-Rating [99] | Efficiency [96])! Oh, and did I mention he is a lefty? Yup. Keep an eye on him, though he may only see late season action in 2010, aka September Call-Up.

Henry Villar | SP | A | 22 | 10.9 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 90 IP | 1.09 WHIP
He may be a bit old for A-ball, but the strikeout rate is nice and the control is impeccable.

Julio Martinez | 1B | R/A(ss) | 21 | @A(ss) .326/.380/.540 | 187 AB | 15 2B | 5 HR | 30:15 K:BB
He played at both the Rookie level and in short season hitting a combined .326/.380/.540 with 12 homers in 187 at-bats. Hard to know much about these low-minor players as many don’t have many scouting reports on them.

Jose Altuve | 2B | R | 19 | .324/.408/.508 | 179 AB | 20 2B | 21 SB | 16:26 K:BB
Jiovanni Mier | SS | R | 18 | .276/.388/.483 | 192 AB | 7 HR | 10 SB
Yuri Perez | SP | R | 18 | 10.5 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 51 2/3 IP
These last three are together because I just want you to be aware of them. They are all young, performed well, and are positions in which the Astros lack quality depth.