Fantasy Baseball Advice

Washington Nationals 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (14) | 2010 (24) | 2009 (21) | 2008 (10) | 2007 (30) | 2006 (24)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [80-81] NL East

AAA: [66-74] International League – Syracuse

AA: [80-62] Eastern League – Harrisburg

A+: [68-71] Carolina League – Potomac

A: [75-64] South Atlantic League – Hagerstown

A(ss): [45-30] New York-Penn League – Auburn

The Run Down

There would’ve been a few more guys to discuss here, had the Nationals not gutted their system in acquiring Gio Gonzalez.  Their top two pitching prospects (Brad Peacock & A.J. Cole) were shipped out along with top catching prospect, Kerek Norris, and big-league-ready LHP, Tom Milone.  Prior to the trade, Baseball America had this Nationals system ranked #1 overall.  GM Mike Rizzo drafted some high-ceiling types in Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke, and the organization still possesses baseball’s top prospect.  Regarding that top prospect:  he’s got the tools and makeup to be a perennial All Star, but his mustache could use some work.  It’s flat and whispy, but not pathetic enough to be making a comedic statement a la Derek Holland.  Harper needs to add significant volume to his 6^th tool in order to complete the package.  Perhaps Grey could lend some advice?

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions

Pat Lehman (RHP); Rafael Martin (RHP); Sammy Solis (LHP); Derek Norris (C); Bryce Harper (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Danny Espinosa (SS); Wilson Ramos (C); Yunesky Maya (RHP); Ryan Mattheus (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Bryce Harper | OF:

Grey previews Harper here.  And while I tend to agree with the guarded outlook, the Nationals have been adamant about not counting their prized prospect out of a Major League role when camp breaks.  Grey noted that this could simply be a ploy to stir fan interest, which seems plausible.  Lately, though, I’m wondering if the Nats are sincere about promoting Harper sooner rather than later.  This, of course, is a situation worth watching closely as it develops this spring.  My best guess:  Harper will be called up in June.

Chris Marrero | 1B:

Marrero collected 100+ AB’s as the Nationals’ primary first baseman this past September.  Unfortunately, the 23-year-old did not impress.  His 2011 Triple-A figures (.300/.375/.449), however, are his best to date.  Blocked by Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche, Marrero should return to AAA, but he’s right on the cusp of breaking through as another rather boring NL first baseman.

Steve Lombardozzi | 2B:

Lombardozzi is one of those scraptastic guys who you probably don’t want anywhere near your fantasy roster.  Not very toolsy, but oozing with baseball acumen.  You know the type.  He’ll likely make the Nats as a utility infielder, but shouldn’t see regular time unless Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond goes down to injury.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Anthony Rendon | 3B:

The sixth overall selection in the 2011 draft, Rendon signed late and is yet to make his pro debut.  He brings a polished approach to hitting and is discussed in the same light as Evan Longoria and David Wright.  Washington will be careful with him at first; a strained throwing shoulder hampered him in his final season at Rice.  Rendon has a Major League contract so he’ll be in camp with the big club this spring, but I expect him to make his pro debut in Potomac.  The Nats may have to consider shifting him to second base while Zimmerman holds down third.

Pitchers

Matt Purke | LHP – SP:

Purke signed too late to gain any professional experience last year, but he has the potential to climb quickly through the Washington farm system.  The lefty went 16-0 with Texas Christian in 2010, but didn’t pitch in 2011 due to a shoulder ailment.  The condition didn’t require surgery, and the Nationals feel they got a steal in drafting Purke in the third round last June.  Until he proves his health on the mound, it’s fair to be skeptical, but Purke is armed with a filthy fastball-slider combo, and projects as a frontline starter.

Cole Kimball | RHP – RP:

Kimball was off to a nice start to his Major League career before his season was cut short to injury.  In 12 appearances with the Nats, the righty posted a 1.93 ERA.  This was after Kimball put up a 0.00 ERA in 12 appearances as the closer in Syracuse.  Rotator-cuff surgery is cause for concern, but the Nationals hope to have Kimball back in their bullpen for the second half.

Sammy Solis | LHP – SP:

Solis projects as a mid-rotation, innings eating type.  His repertoire features a mid-90′s fastball with movement, a decent curve, and a work-in-progress changeup.  Solis posted a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts at High-A to round out his 2011. He’ll ride that momentum into Harrisburg for 2012 and could progress quickly from there, given his solid mechanics and fundamental approach.

Texas Rangers 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (15) | 2010 (2) | 2009 (1) | 2008 (4) | 2007 (28) | 2006 (16)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [96-66] AL West

AAA: [87-57] Pacific Coast League – Round Rock

AA: [79-61] Texas League – Frisco

A+: [72-67] Carolina League – Myrtle Beach

A: [79-58] South Atlantic League – Hickory

A(ss): [35-41] Northwest League – Spokane

The Run Down

Being that we’re discussing fantasy baseball here, I feel compelled to focus on the measurables of the players I highlight, and justifiably so; the game we’re playing is based entirely on these calculable elements, after all.  This group of Rangers prospects, however, is difficult to calculate.  We’re dealing with a first-year guy out of Japan, a second-year guy out of Cuba, an 18-year-old, and a handful of promising arms who’ve yet to pan out, production-wise.  There are, of course, some exceptions.  Both Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar impressed in A-ball.  Neil Ramirez had nice marks, too, and De Los Santos struck out, like, everyone.  But for the most part, the numbers here aren’t the attraction.  The potential is the attraction.  That’s not to suggest that I’m not excited about these Texas Rangers prospects.  Actually, I really look forward to tracking this system and I believe it’ll produce significant fantasy value in years to come – 2012 included.

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Saguaros

Miguel De Los Santos (RHP); Ryan Kelly (RHP); Neil Ramirez (RHP); Johan Yan (RHP); Elio Sarmiento (C); Leury Garcia (SS); Mike Olt (3B); Ryan Strausborger (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Craig Gentry (OF); Yoshinori Tateyama (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Leonys Martin | OF:

Martin played at four levels in 2011, from rookie ball to MLB.  The 23-year-old Cuban will be competing for the Rangers’ center field job this spring.  If he wins the job, his immediate value will be mostly defensive.  The Rangers are confident he’ll blossom into a quality leadoff hitter, but I haven’t seen enough to endorse that sentiment.  Certainly keep an eye on him this spring.

Pitchers

Yu Darvish | RHP – SP:

Grey offers his thoughts on Darvish here.  Erik, too, has posted regarding Yu.  Hype abounds.  Darvish won’t go cheaply, but he’ll be very productive for fantasy purposes.  I’m intrigued.  I think I’ll be in on the bidding.

Martin Perez | LHP – SP:

Perez features three plus offerings, including a mid-90′s fastball, a changeup and a curve.  Command, it seems, is the only thing holding the 20-year-old back at this point.  After struggling in 10 Triple-A starts last season, Perez is in line to return to Round Rock for 2012.  The Rangers have pushed him along rather quickly thus far, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t continue to do so.  Provided he shows improved consistency, he’ll be a nice candidate for a midseason call up.

Neil Ramirez | RHP – SP:

While his stuff isn’t quite as impressive as Perez’s, Ramirez might be a safer option if the Rangers need a starter at any point.  His command is Major League-ready and he’s added a changeup to his repertoire.  Texas might choose to use him in their bullpen to begin with, but Ramirez projects as a mid-rotation starter.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Jurickson Profar | SS:

At 18 years old, Profar is very young, but he’s a guy you’ll want to keep an eye on as he climbs the ladder.  With 57 XBH in 516 trips to the plate in 2011, it’s clear that he’s ready for High-A, perhaps more.  It’ll be interesting to see how the Rangers handle Profar’s development, with Elvis Andrus occupying shortstop for the foreseeable future.  Regarded as a top-ten overall prospect, Jurickson is a name to remember.

Mike Olt | 3B:

Here’s another guy who is currently blocked at his natural position.  With Adrian Beltre holding down third, Olt, too, is in line for a position change if he is to arrive in Texas any time soon.  Perhaps more likely, the Rangers will look to use Olt as trade-bait.  In which case, the 23-year-old could be manning 3^rd for a team like the Cubs come August.

Pitchers

Tanner Scheppers | RHP – RP:

Scheppers features a filthy fastball that touches 100, but his command has struggled along the way and there are health concerns.  With his stuff, though, he’s not far from the Major League bullpen.  Unfortunately, the Rangers have quite a few impressive arms ahead of him in their pen.  Fantasy relevance is a ways away at this point.

Miguel De Los Santos | LHP – SP:

A 13.5 K/9 in 2011 is certainly worth noting.  A 5.04 ERA is less so.  He needs to maintain command of his fastball if he is to be effective at higher levels, but ridiculous strikeout numbers stand out.

Los Angeles Angels 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (15) | 2010 (26) | 2009 (25) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (4) | 2006 (4)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [86-76] AL West

AAA: [62-82] Pacific Coast League – Salt Lake

AA: [68-69] Texas League – Arkansas

A+: [69-71] California League – Inland Empire

A: [61-68] Midwest League – Cedar Rapids

R: [46-30] Pioneer League – Orem

The Run Down

Unfortunately for the likes of Mike Trout and Garret Richards, the Angels spent big this offseason, and in turn, they seem to have clogged up any prospect throughways.  Barring injury, I don’t see much opportunity in 2012 for this Los Angeles farm system.  Trout is a top overall prospect and anyone drafting in keepers should definitely consider him.  Richards will compete for the fifth starter role, and there are a handful of arms who could get a chance in the bullpen, but beyond that, there isn’t much fantasy relevance just yet.  Looking a little further ahead, the Angels’ system could yield quite a bit of fantasy production, as Trout and Richards settle into regular roles along with Jean Segura and 2010 first-rounder, Kaleb Cowart.

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions

David Carpenter (RHP); Chris Scholl (RHP); Daniel Tillman (RHP); Jean Segura (SS); Mike Trout (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Mark Trumbo (1B); Hank Conger (C)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Mike Trout | OF:

Quoting Grey Albright: “I’m afraid to report to you, Mike Trout’s not seeing time until 2013.  My Mike Trout 2012 fantasy is missing one caveat — what happens if they sign Albert Effin’ Pujols?  My guess is their outfield is gonna be Hunter, Bourjos and Wells with Abreu platooning in the outfield and at DH […] To recap for fantasy, Pujols is fine, Bourjos is fine, Trumbo is fine if he can play 3rd which seems unlikely, Kendrys is fine if he’s healthy, Abreu is not fine, Mike Trout is not fine.”  After the Pujols acquisition, the Angels appear too crowded accommodate a promotion for their top prospect.  Trout skipped Triple-A entirely and he won’t be 21 ‘til August, so keeping him back seems justifiable.

Alexi Amarista | 2B:

Amarista collected 33 XBH in 396 PA at Triple-A and stole 15 bags along the way.  He’s a slick-fielding second baseman and he’s hit fairly well at every level, aside from a small sample in the bigs.  He shows occasional gap power, but he needs to develop more patience at the plate before he’s ready to contribute in the majors.  Amarista should return to Salt Lake to begin 2012, as the Angels are well equipped at middle infield.

Jeremy Moore | OF:

Moore has the tools, but he’ll need to improve vastly on his plate discipline.  His 4.6 BB% at Triple-A is concerning, but if he can improve on that, he could make a nice third or fourth outfielder down the road.  Moore has 15-20 potential and the Angels have an aging outfield.  Do keep an eye on him.

Pitchers

Garrett Richards | RHP – SP:

Richards’ numbers at Double-A weren’t overly impressive, but in 143 IP he did manage a 3.15 ERA and surrendered just 10 homers.  He earned a late season call up but was forgettable in seven appearances (three starts).  Richards throws a mid-90s fastball, a 12-6 curve, and an occasional changeup.  He’ll need to improve the change before he can truly be effective at the Major League level, but Richards will likely compete for starts at some point this year.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Jean Segura | SS/2B: 

Segura’s development has been slowed by injury, but he’s produced while healthy.  Stephen’s outlook a year ago still holds, although it seems Segura is in line to begin in Double-A this year.

Pitchers

John Hellweg | RHP – SP/RP:

Hellweg posted a 2.12 ERA as a starter in the hitter-friendly California League.  The 6-9 23-year-old throws fastball in the high 90s and counters with a low 80s slider.  The combination draws plenty of strikeouts.  He’ll begin 2012 in Arkansas, but he’ll rise quickly if his dominance continues.

Dan Tillman | RHP – RP:

Tillman sports a similarly devastating fastball-slider combo to Hellweg, however he projects more as a late innings reliever than as a starter.  Perhaps the system’s most promising relief arm, Tillman is a non-roster invitee to big league camp, but he’ll likely begin 2012 in the minors.  Should the Angels’ pen need help at any point, he’ll be among the first considered.

Chicago Cubs 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (16) | 2010 (14) | 2009 (27) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [71-91] NL Central

AAA: [66-77] Pacific Coast League – Iowa

AA: [83-57] Southern League – Tennessee

A+: [76-61] Florida State League – Daytona

A: [60-79] Midwest League – Peoria

A(ss): [36-40] Northwest League – Boise

The Run Down

The Cubs’ MLB-ready talent doesn’t extend too far beyond Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson.  A few relief prospects and a backup catcher could crack the big league roster, but there aren’t a slew of guys here who are ready to contribute in the majors.  Even so, Rizzo and Jackson alone are sufficient to generate fantasy buzz.  And behind them, the Cubs have youthful types like Matt Szczur, Javier Baez and Dillon Maples.

Of all their additions this offseason, none is more important than Theo.   The Cubs are finally setting smart, long-term goals through emphasizing scouting and player development.  They’ve partnered with Bloomberg Sports, who will develop custom information systems and support data-driven decision-making.  They’re dumping Major League dead weight and they’re building from within.  They seem to be heading in the right direction.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox

Jeff Beliveau (LHP); Chris Carpenter (RHP); Andrew Cashner (RHP); Marcus Hatley (RHP); Trey McNutt (RHP); Junior Lake (SS); D.J. LeMahieu (2B); Josh Vitters (OF); Brett Jackson (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Darwin Barney (2B); Tony Campana (OF)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Brett Jackson | OF:

Although Soriano and Byrd remain, it seems only a matter of time before one (or both) is shipped elsewhere, making room for Jackson in the Chicago outfield.  Grey previews Jackson here.  It’s a great write-up mostly because of the dong joke (dong jokes get me every time), but I tend to agree with the non-dong-related content.  I just used the word “dong” four times while discussing Brett Jackson.  That places me second all-time behind Phil Rogers.

Anthony Rizzo | 1B:

Grey discusses Donkey Kong Jr.’s 2012 outlook here.  Rizzo, of course, now has a new team, a new ballpark and new teammates.  Long-term, the new environment certainly helps Rizzo.  But for 2012, I don’t think much needs to be changed from Grey’s projection, although 25 homers is probably a fair assessment, now.  Rizzo will likely begin 2012 in Iowa.  Bryan LaHair will hold his place in Chicago in the meantime.  I expect Rizzo up by midseason.

Welington Castillo | C:

There’s a good chance he’ll serve as Geovany Soto’s backup in 2012.  .238 ISO at Triple-A in 2011 reflects nice pop for a catcher, even in the PCL.  Soto, like many other Cubs regulars, is a trade candidate and Castillo would step into a starting role should a trade occur.  He’ll be worth adding across all formats if he’s ever getting regular AB’s.

Pitchers

Rafael Dolis | RHP – RP:

I suspect that Theo will, at some point, be shopping Marmol.  That is, if he isn’t already.  And if the Cubs are so lucky to unload their closer, Dolis seems like a good candidate to take on the role, as his high 90s sinking fastball can be utterly unhittable.  He’ll likely start 2012 at Triple-A where he’ll work on secondary pitches and overall command, but he’ll be up before long.

Chris Carpenter | RHP – RP:

Carpenter is a power righty who projects as a setup man.  When his command is with him, he’s tough to hit, but he has struggled in that regard.  Carpenter is pretty much a two-pitch guy with a high 90s fastball and high 80s slider.  He should be ready to join the Cubs bullpen full-time in 2012.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Josh Vitters | 3B/1B:

Vitters moderate improvement at Double-A in 2011, slashing .283/.322/.448.  But it’s still hardly the production that the Cubs would like to see out of their 3^rd overall pick in 2007.  At just 22, there is still time for him to polish his tools and start progressing, but he’ll need to begin doing so quickly.

Pitchers

Trey McNutt | RHP – SP:

McNutt struggled at Tennessee in 2011 and is probably in for a return to Double-A in 2012.  For a power pitcher with a plus fastball and plus curve, it’s concerning that his strikeout ratios aren’t at all impressive (6.2 K/9 in 2011).  A prospect with this kind of stuff shouldn’t be ignored, however.  If he can improve his command, the ratios will fall in line and he could find himself pitching at Wrigley come September.

Jay Jackson | RHP – SP:

Jackson’s had a rough couple of years at Triple-A, but the Cubs haven’t yet lost faith.  An initiative of Epstein’s has been to glean his rotation from a hoard of Major League-caliber pitching.  Jackson still has the stuff to be included in that hoard.

Boston Red Sox 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (17) | 2010 (5) | 2009 (13) | 2008 (2) | 2007 (9) | 2006 (8)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [90-72] AL East

AAA: [81-61] International League – Pawtucket

AA: [59-83] Eastern League – Portland

A+: [64-75] Carolina League – Salem

A: [78-62] South Atlantic League – Greenville

A(ss): [29-45] New York Penn League – Lowell

The Run Down

The Red Sox pipeline, as usual, is flush with talent.  And although its most exciting prospects (see Middlebrooks & Barnes) are probably a year away from arriving at Fenway, the system features a decent amount of MLB-ready talent.  Unfortunately for those ready to make their marks with the big club, Boston’s MLB roster doesn’t seem primed for much turnover:  The opening in right field will most certainly be filled with a free agent, and I’m thinking they’ll do the same to round out the rotation.

If you’re wondering why I didn’t list Lars Anderson, it’s because he kinda stinks.  And until we’re all in leagues that factor UZR, don’t bother worrying about Jose Iglesias, either.  But please keep an eye on youngsters like Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart – both will be exciting prospects to watch develop.

Arizona Fall League Players – Scottsdale Scorpions

Caleb Clay (RHP); Brock Huntzinger (RHP); Jeremy Kehrt (RHP); Will Latimer (LHP); Dan Butler (C); Ryan Dent (SS); Alex Hassan (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Josh Reddick (RF)*; Drew Sutton (3B)**; Michael Bowden (RHP)

*Now with Oakland

**Now with Atlanta

Players of Interest

Hitters

Ryan Lavarnway | C:

The original thought on Lavarnway was that he’d never be able to stick at catcher, given some defensive shortcomings.  Thanks to an impressive work ethic and general baseball acumen, however, the 24-year-old hasn’t yet been supplanted at his post behind the plate.  The Red Sox have Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach ahead of him for the time being, but Lavarnway has great power potential for a catcher-eligible player (.317 ISO at AAA).  He’ll be worth adding in all formats upon arrival.

Pitchers

Alex Wilson | RHP – SP: 

Profiling as a backend-type starter, Wilson could be a safe option for the BoSox should the rotation suffer injury at any point. A 3.43 K/BB ratio at Triple-A is certainly promising, though the sample is very small.  Wilson should begin 2012 in the Pawtucket rotation, and it won’t be long before he’s ready for action with the big club.  Unfortunately, his arrival as a starter is unlikely, barring injury, and he might ultimately debut in a relief role.

Kyle Weiland | RHP – SP:

Like Wilson, Weiland profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He had his chance at the big league level last year, where in five appearances he posted an ugly 6.55 FIP.  He throws a low 90s fastball along with a cutter, a curve and a changeup.  Also like Wilson, Weiland’s best shot a resurfacing is probably with the bullpen.

Felix Doubront | LHP – SP/RP:

Doubront seems like a likely candidate to break camp with the Red Sox bullpen.  Projecting similarly to the aforementioned Wilson and Weiland, I give Doubront the better shot to crack the opening day roster simply for his lefthandedness.  He could be in the mix for starts if there’s a need.

Junichi Tazawa | RHP – RP/SP:  

Tazawa made the transition from starter to reliever in 2011 and the switch seemed to suit him.  His high 80s fastball showed increased velocity in shorter stints of work and only served to magnify the effectiveness of his splitter.  Tazawa could surely work his way into the Red Sox pen this spring.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Will Middlebrooks | 3B:

Middlebrooks will likely need a full season at Triple-A, where he managed only 2 XBH in 60 trips to the plate in 2011.  The 23-year-old projects wonderfully at third, though, and he should replace Kevin Youkilis at the hot corner in 2013.  Until then, it’ll be fun to track Middlebrooks in Pawtucket as he works on refining his plate discipline, which, at times, is overly aggressive.

Bryce Brentz | OF: 

Brentz slashed .306/.365/.574 between Low A and High A in 2011, and should be ready for Double-A in 2012.  The Red Sox have a void in right field that they’ll likely opt to fill via free agency.  At 23 years old, though, Brentz is poised to progress quickly through AA and AAA.  With a strong arm and power bat, he profiles perfectly for right field, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Brentz is up and playing somewhat regularly come September.

Pitchers

Anthony Ranaudo | RHP – SP: 

In his first year of pro ball, Ranaudo pitched 127 innings between Greenville and Salem.  Standing 6-foot-7, the righty has no trouble generating velocity:  His fastball ranges from 91-97 MPH.  The heavy workload in his first year caused a bit of regression in that area, however, and Ranaudo spent the final two months of the season working in the low 90s.  He features a plus curve and decent command.  Past elbow injuries are cause for concern, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll be pitching at Fenway by 2013.

Matt Barnes | RHP – SP:

Barnes is my favorite of the Red Sox’s pitching prospects.  The first-rounder out of UConn signed too late to pitch in 2011, but he shouldn’t require too much time in the minors.  Perhaps not as imposing as the 6-7 Ranaudo, Barnes (6-4, 205) produces similar velocity with an effortless delivery.  His arrival is on a similar timetable to Ranaudo’s, but I have a hunch that Barnes will pitching at Fenway first.