Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’re two weeks away from Major League Baseball’s First-Year Players Draft, during which droves of high school and college baseball players will be chosen by MLB organizations to fill their farm systems.  Most all the draftees will never make it further than the low minors.  A handful of the college guys, however, are already too advanced for short-season or instructional ball.  Mind you, this group is merely a tiny fraction of the overall draft class — there aren’t many guys worth noting for fantasy baseball purposes just yet.  But there are some.  And for the next couple weeks I’m going to highlight a few of my favorites in this weekly feature, which is typically reserved for already-pros.  Anyway.  We start with a Dukie:

Marcus Stroman | RHP, Duke

Gifted pitchers tend to arrive in the majors a bit more quickly than the hitters.  2011 first-rounders like Trevor Bauer and Danny Hultzen are already on the cusp of breaking through in the bigs, and they’ll be making impacts in fantasy ball this year.  Marcus Stroman, a starting pitcher out of Duke, could find himself in a similar position a year from now.  At 5-9, 180, Stroman isn’t your prototype pitching prospect, but he’s strong and athletic and can bring it at 98 with his fastball.  He counters with a plus changeup and a filthy slider, giving him a three-pitch repertoire that’s not far from big league-ready.  His ceiling as a starter is that of a #2, but many think he’d make an outstanding high-leverage reliever.  Either way, Stroman will go in the first round and he’s well suited to climb the ladder quickly.

Richie Shaffer | 3B, Clemson

It’s extremely rare that a college hitter would be ready for for MLB action within a year of being drafted, so you need a more patient outlook when considering the position players.  Richie Shaffer is likely no exception, but he’s advanced enough to put on your fantasy radar.  Out of Clemson, Shaffer is a slugging 3B and he’s put up some impressive figures this year in collegiate play:  .344/.470/.590.  At 6-4, 195, Shaffer figures to fill out nicely and many project him as a 1B in the bigs.  There is serious power potential here.  Shaffer could put up 30+ homers annually in the majors, but he’ll need a couple years of seasoning in the minors first.  Look for for him to go mid-late first round.

Kyle Zimmer | RHP, San Fransico

Standing 6-4, 220, Zimmer is a more typical power pitching prospect than Stroman, but in terms of development, he’s not likely to move as quickly.  With a mid-90′s fastball that touches 99 to go along with a steeply breaking curve, Zimmer features a couple of outstanding offerings.  But his third pitch, a change, is more of a work-in-progress.  Scouts see that pitch developing into a plus weapon, but it’s clear that the repertoire as a whole is in need some refining before it’s ready to face MLB hitters.  As a fantasy-minded fan, I’d love to see Zimmer sign early and get some pro experience this year.  I suppose I’d love to see all the highly touted prospects sign early and start playing, but Zimmer in particular.  Should he get some time at A-ball under his belt in 2012, he’d be on pace to reach Double-A in 2013, and for arrival early 2014.

A week ago, I updated Jurickson Profar with news that his hitting streak had reached 21 games.  Well, Profar’s streak has now swelled to 29, the longest in pro ball this year.  With the graduations of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Matt Moore, Profar takes over as the game’s top prospect and it’s not too soon to start considering how and when he fits in with the Rangers.  With Ian Kinsler signed through 2018, and Adrian Beltre through 2016, it seems Profar won’t have a clear path to Arlington ’til Elvis Andrus hits free agency after the 2014 season.  I have to assume he’ll be ready before then, however, which leads me to speculate about a transition to outfield or a trade, perhaps.  I suppose this is a good problem to have from the Rangers’ vantage point.  It’ll be interesting to watch how the situation plays out.

Matt Adams | 1B, Cardinals – There was plenty of buzz around Adams during Spring Training as the 23-year-old slugger was murdering the ball in big league camp.  Despite the impressive audition, St. Louis sent him to Triple-A Memphis where he’s hit .338/.373/.597 with 9 HR through his first 150 plate appearances.  After Lance Berkman’s injury on Saturday night, however, Adams is on his way to Los Angeles in time to join the Cardinals for their Sunday contest versus the Dodgers.  With an advanced approach, solid on base skills, and plus power, Adams has a chance to do damage in the bigs right away.  He’s worth an add in most formats.

Danny Hultzen | LHP, Mariners – After a rough debut, Hultzen has settled in and is now cruising through the Southern League.  After eight Double-A appearances, his ERA sits at 1.81 and his WHIP at 0.99.  No one thought he’d need much time in the minors and he appears to be validating that sentiment.

Anthony Rizzo | 1B, Cubs – He’s up to 14 homers and his OPS sits at 1.122.  Maybe the Ricketts would like to see him defame Obama before they feel comfortable with the call up.  Did things just get uncomfortably political here at Razzball?  Grey Albright for prez!

Zach Wheeler | RHP, Mets – Through 37.2 IP at Double-A, Wheeler’s posted a 2.15 ERA while whiffing 45.  The feature piece in the Carlos Beltran swap last summer, Wheeler has been excellent during his first stint at Double-A.

Noah Syndergaard | RHP, Blue Jays – Syndergaard has been destroying Midwest League hitters, striking out 38 batters through his first 28.2 IP.  I expect a breakout campaign from this wonderfully athletic 19-year-old as he pushes toward High Class A.

Nick Tepesch | RHP, Rangers – Combined with teammate Jimmy Reyes to no-hit the Wilmington Blue Rocks in Carolina League play on Saturday.  Tepesch was impressive, sitting at 92-95 with his fastball, but he still has a ways to go before he’s taken seriously as a prospect.

Wil Myers / Jake Odorizzi | Royals - I wrote about both these dudes last week, as the two were blazing hot at Double-A.  Well, the pair was bumped up to Triple-A Omaha this week and the countdown to their respective arrivals has begun.

Trevor Bauer | RHP, D’backs - Bauer, too, was promoted to Triple-A this past week.  His first Pacific Coast League start looked like this:  8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 11 K, and most importantly, just one walk.  Bauer surrendered a solo bomb, but he seems to have sorted out the control issue, which was really the only thing holding him back from a gig in the majors.  Expect his arrival in Arizona any week now.

Kolten Wong | 2B, Cardinals | Born:  10/10/1990

Tyler Greene was the 30th overall selection in the 2005 draft.  It was the Cardinals second pick that year; they took Colby Rasmus two spots earlier.  At this point, both players appear to be busts, really.  I suppose St. Louis fans can take solace knowing that the Cards flipped Rasmus for important pieces in their World Series run.  But there’s little consolation on Greene’s side of things.  He’s awful, and it’s clear that he’s not a long term option as an everyday 2B.  There is hope for St. Louis, however.  Kolten Wong is officially the Cardinals’ 2B of the future.  He took that right after being drafted 22nd overall a year ago, and his performance in the minors has only solidified his position as such.

Out of the University of Hawaii, Wong made his pro debut at Low-A Quad Cities where he batted .355/.401/.510 over 222 PA.  Most had him pegged for High-A to open 2012, but the Cardinals chose to move him along more aggressively, sending him to Double-A Springfield out of camp.  The 21-year-old has responded by hitting .305/.381/.441 through his first 32 games in the Texas League.  At 5-9, 190, Wong is small, but he can handle the bat and he can provide some pop too.  His advanced approach to hitting has allowed for an easy transition to Double-A and it will surely shorten his path to the bigs.  I expect an arrival sometime early in 2013, but if Wong continues to get on base while increasing his XBH production, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at Busch Stadium this September.  Once he’s settled in the majors, look for Wong to post a .300+ average along with 15 homers and double-digit steals.  He’s my favorite 2B prospect in the minors and he’ll be valuable in all fantasy formats.

Robbie Erlin | LHP, Padres | Born:  10/8/1989

In my 2011 Padres Review, I noted that for fantasy purposes Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin were essentially the same dude.  Wieland had a bit more polish, and that earned him some starts earlier this year in the San Diego rotation, but now he’s on the DL and the Padres are starting 37-year-old Jeff Suppan.  Sure, Suppan’s been serviceable through his first few starts, but it won’t last and neither will he.  And if Wieland doesn’t rebound quickly from his elbow ailment, the Padres could certainly look to Erlin for help.

Procured in the Mike Adams swap last year, Erlin has been at Double-A San Antonio ever since.  Through his first 34 IP in 2012, he’s struck out 45 and earned a 2.67 ERA.  The only thing holding him back for now is command.  His BB/9 sits at 2.7 on the year, as opposed to the 1.0 BB/9 mark he posted over 147 innings of work in 2011.  He’s always been a plus command guy, which is why the slip in that regard is so perplexing.  This early in the season, I like to blame the sample and assume that Erlin will sort out the issue.  Once he does, he’ll have a fairly clear path to Petco.  Erlin should put up nice ERA and WHIP in the bigs, and his changeup could draw plenty of K’s too.   Of course, any pitcher throwing at Petco is worth fantasy consideration.  Erlin will certainly be no exception.

Perhaps Bryan LaHair isn’t quite the slob I thought he was.  Through 110 PA, LaHair is batting .359/.455/.717 with eight homers and it no longer looks as if he’ll be simply stepping aside to make room for top prospect Anthony Rizzo.  If Rizzo is to arrive this season, the Cubs are going to have to find a way to build a lineup that accommodates both players.  LaHair made 14 appearances at OF last year, one so far this year, and slotting him permanently at a corner OF post would appear to be the move.  With other players (Soriano) complicating the matter, though, it might take another trade from the Cubbies to make space available.  Meanwhile, Rizzo’s OPS at Triple-A Iowa sits at 1.077 and with every game that passes, it becomes clearer that he’s too advanced for minor league ball.

Christian Yelich | OF, Marlins – I covered Yelich a couple weeks back in a Scouting the Unknown post.  He began 2012 a little late due to an elbow injury, but he’s really gotten going recently.  In 111 PA, he’s up to five homers to go along with an OPS over .900 at High-A.  There is enormous power potential for Yelich.  It’ll be fun to see what he can do at Double-A later on this season.

Jurickson Profar | SS, Rangers – Profar has now hit safely in 21 straight games.  And by “now” I mean Saturday afternoon, in case he effs it up tonight.  The 19-year-old phenom is having little trouble adjusting to Double-A as he’s batting .273/.329/.492 after his first month in the Texas League.  I only expect those figures to rise as he gets more comfortable.

Jake Odorizzi | RHP, Royals -  In my 2011 Royals review, I noted that Odorizzi needed some more time at Double-A to refine his secondary stuff.  Well, after posting a 3.32 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP while whiffing 47 through 38 IP, it doesn’t seem much more time will be necessary.  He’ll be joining Mike Montgomery in Omaha before long, and given Monty’s early struggles, it’s fair to speculate that Odorizzi will arrive in KC first.

Wil Myers | OF, Royals – After a frustrating 2011, Myers has officially re-emerged as an elite hitting prospect.  He’s hitting .339/.413./.712 at Double-A.  He’ll be at Omaha by midseason.

Dellin Betances | RHP, Yankees – In last Sunday’s post I wrote about how awful Betances had been.  Then on Wednesday Betances pitched eight innings of two-hit baseball.  He walked just two batters and allowed only one run.  We’ll see if he can build from that positive outing and get himself back on track with Triple-A Empire State.

Jameson Taillon | RHP, Pirates – Taillon has posted a 36/7 K/BB through his first 36 IP at High-A Bradenton.  He’s developing alongside 2011 No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole, and he’s outshining him so far.  Taillon is the younger of the two and he’s shown outstanding command in the early going, helping him to a 1.47 ERA.

Cory Spangenberg | 2B, Padres – After a dreadful start at High-A, Spangenberg has finally started to catch his stride in the California League, now hitting .303/.338/.401.  He’s baseball’s second best prospect at 2B behind Kotlen Wong of the Cardinals, and he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.

Miguel Sano | SS, Twins – The 18-year-old hit his 10th homer for Low-A Beloit earlier this week.  It was a game-winner and his admiration for the bomb nearly incited a Midwest League brawl.  Here’s the story on that.

Matt Barnes | RHP, Red Sox - It was clear after his first Low-A start that Barnes was too advanced for the South Atlantic League.  Well, Boston promoted him to High-A Salem not too long ago and the results are still impressive:  20 whiffs and one walk through his first 12 IP.  He could be on the fast track if this keeps up.

Taijuan Walker | RHP, Mariners | Born:  8/13/1992

The Double-A Jackson Generals have quite an impressive rotation.  With Danny Hultzen and James Paxton alone, it’d be among the best rotations in Minor League Baseball.  Toss in Taijuan Walker, however, and now we’re looking at a truly special Double-A collection of arms, the likes of which doesn’t come around very often.

Both Hultzen and Paxton qualify as top-level pitching prospects, but Walker is the trump card in this group.  He’s the prized piece of the Seattle farm system.  The M’s chose to skip Walker past High-A and promoted him directly to Jackson this spring.  It was a bold move, considering he’s only 19-years-old and struggled with command at times at Low-A in 2011.  But Walker has been brilliant thus far in the Southern League, especially in regard to command.  Scouts have noticed a more consistent arm slot in 2012, which has rendered his mid-90′s fastball, his plus-plus curve, and his filthy changeup virtually indistinguishable upon release.  The result is a 2.6 BB/9, down from 3.6 a year ago.  The improved walk rate comes with a 1.30 ERA and a 9.1 K/9 through his first five appearances.  With ace-like stuff, improving command, tremendous athleticism, and advanced mental makeup, Taijuan Walker appears to be a sure-fire fantasy ace.  Throw Safeco Field into the mix, and the ceiling is sky-high.  Do keep in mind that he’s just 19, though.  There’s plenty of time for things to unravel.

Yasmani Grandal | C, San Diego | Born:  11/8/1988

With Jesus Montero and Devin Mesoraco graduating their prospect status here shortly, Yasmani Grandal joins Travis D’Arnaud and Gary Sanchez as the catchers of note in Minor League Baseball.  Funny to think he was buried behind Mesoraco in the Reds’ system just six months ago.  Now he’s off to a solid start in the San Diego minors, hitting .317/.453/.512 at Triple-A.  Grandal, a switch-hitter, projects to hit for a .290+ AVG and bring decent pop for a catcher.  His bat is, by all means, above average with regard to his position, and that’ll make him a hot fantasy asset when he arrives.

If there is a concern here, it’s on the defensive side of things.  Grandal allowed 19 passed balls last year, and while his bat may be big league-ready, his glove is far from it.  The Padres feature a young rotation at the Major League level (Suppan excluded) and it’d seem less than prudent to allow an inexperienced (and arguably inept) receiver to handle their staff.  San Diego has shown no signs of shifting Grandal in the field, however.  They’re intent on bringing him up as a catcher and they’re confident that he’ll suffice defensively.  In 10 games behind the dish this year, though, Grandal has thrown out one of four attempted thefts while already allowing four passed balls.  The sample certainly isn’t significant, but even so, he’ll need to show improvement if he expects to arrive in San Diego this year.  His bat is ready and fantasy owners are eager to see his name hit waivers.  Alas, we’re at the mercy of the Padres, and they could not care less that Arencibia is killing your team.