Fantasy Baseball Advice

Cleveland Indians 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (7) | 2008 (19) | 2007 (10) | 2006 (9) | 2005 (7) | 2004 (6)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [65 – 97] AL Central
AAA: [57 – 85] International League
AA: [89 – 53] Eastern League
A+: [60 – 78] Carolina League
A: [71 – 66] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [49 – 27] New York Pennsylvanian
R: [24 – 32] Arizona League

The Run Down
After a season of trading away their major league assets and marketability (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and Mark DeRosa to name a few), the organization still looks like it’s in rebuilding mode. There is still some quality talent on the major league squad (Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera).  However, their team and fans should expect much of the same struggles that 2009 saw in 2010. There is some great young talent nearly ready for the majors in Carlos Santana (2010 Fantasy Outlook and his Scouting the Unknown), the major league ready Carlos Carrasco (Scouting the Unknown), and the freshly graduated Matt LaPorta; not to mention the once stud prospect, Andy Marte, at third base. Oh, and don’t forget about the speedy Michael Brantley (Top 300 Fantasy Player Rankings, Top 60 Outfielders #50). There are things to be excited for in Cleveland, it’s just not winning a pennant (or a football game). With one of the top ranked minor league systems in the majors, again, the Indians look poised for a youth invasion.

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Saguaros
Pitchers – Conner Graham; Josh Judy; Zach Putnam
Hitters – (C/1B) Matt McBride; (3B) Carlos Rivero; (2B) Josh Rodriguez; (OF) Nick Weglarz

Graduated Prospects
#2 (OF) Matt LaPorta; #8 (LHP) David Huff; #10 (2B) Luis Valbuena; #15 (OF) Trevor Crowe; #17 (LHP) Tony Sipp; #3 (STL – RHP) Chris Perez

Players of Interest 2010
Hitters
#3 (PHI) Lou Marson | C | AAA | 23 | .277/.361/.360 | 314 AB | 21 XBH | 2 HR | .083 ISO | 59:40 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 53.1 GB% | 19.7 LD% | 27.2 FB%
Received in the Cliff Lee trade this past season, Marson projects long term to be the backup for Carlos Santana. Marson truly is the ideal prototypical catcher. He is able to call a good game, keep the opposing teams running game in check, plays excellent defense, handles the strike zone well when batting and projects to hit somewhere between .250 and .275 with a league average OBP. But Marson is just keeping the seat warm until Carlos Santana is ready. For fantasy, Marson is somewhere between a good backup and a league average catcher.

#3 Nick Weglarz | LF | AA | 21 | .227/.377/.431 | 339 AB | 35 XBH | 16 HR | .204 ISO | 78:75 K:BB | .253 BABIP | 45.9 GB% | 14.3 LD% | 39.4 FB%
Weglarz’s slash line looks terrible due to a couple of reasons, maybe even three. Item one, he hurt his back in July. Item two, he had a stress fracture in his left shin in August. Item three, his extremely low batting average on balls in play (.253). Considered one of the most patient prospects in the minors, Weglarz is similar to Jaff Decker of the San Diego Padres. Both players are able to control the strike zone, hit for power, however, both players have questions about their physical stature and where they are going to play defense. Weglarz may need to return to Double-A to start the season and with any sort of improvement in his BABIP and ability to stay healthy, which has been a problem in the past, he should make a cameo in September.

#25 Jordan Brown | 1B | AAA | 27 | .336/.381/.532 | 417 AB | 52 XBH | 16 HR | .196 ISO | 64:30 K:BB | .370 BABIP | 43.5 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 35.7 FB%
With Grady Sizemore occupying that spot and Brown’s poor defense, he should, and usually does, play first base. He also doesn’t have above average power. His strengths are his ability to make consistent contact and drive the ball to the gaps. His BABIP would predict a lower slash line in 2010, however, John Sickels believes he could be this year’s Garrett Jones. With Russell Branyan oft-injured, Matt LaPorta yet to prove himself, and being cellar dwellers, the Indians may give Brown a chance in his age 27 season. He’ll start the season at Triple-A barring any injuries.

Pitchers
#13 Hector Rondon | RHP | AA/AAA | 21 | 8.4 K/9 | 1.8 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 3.38 ERA | 3.11 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 8.8 H/9 | .319 BABIP | 37 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 42.3 FB%
Rondon possesses a 90 to 94 mph fastball, a slightly above-average changeup and a fringe-average slider. His fastball has great late movement that can top out near 96 mph. At just 21, Rondon was playing with prospects several years older than him and handling the adversary quite well. As one can expect at their first stop at Triple-A, Rondon’s numbers lagged, or dropped off from previous stops in the minors. Definitely a fly ball pitcher, he is able to control the free passes (1.8 BB/9) while keeping the ball in the park (.7 Hr/9). Could be a dominant reliever or a mid-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a name you’ll want to watch this summer.

Jeanmar Gomez | RHP | AA | 21 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 1/3 IP | 3.43 ERA | 3.86 FIP | 1.27 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 8.5 H/9 | .302 BABIP | 46.3 GB% | 15 LD% | 35.3 FB%
When you throw a perfect game (May 20, 2009), people are bound to notice. He throws a 88 to 91/92 mph fastball, with an average but inconsistent slider and a change that has some splitter-like action. Relying heavily on deception, Gomez isn’t going to make people’s jaws drop or mouths drool, but can provide serviceable performances and organizational depth. He’ll start the year in the Triple-A and may see a late season call up.

Josh Judy | RHP | AA | 23 | 11.5 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 49 1/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 2.59 FIP | 1.07 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 6.4 H/9 | .320 BABIP | 47.8 GB% | 10.3 LD% | 36 FB%
Used as a reliever, Judy has a deceptive 90 to 95 mph fastball that he throws with a hard slider. He keeps the ball in the park, punches out batters impressively (11.5 k/9, 188 K’s in 168 IP), and has a 1.88 GO/AO ratio. Judy could easily see action out of the Indians bullpen in 2010.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#6 Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | A+/AA | 20 | .258/.325/.472 | 481 AB | 56 XBH | 22 HR | .214 ISO | 96:44 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 42.4 GB% | 15.2 LD% | 41.7 LD%
Chisenhall is easily the best ranked prospect in the organization behind Carlos Santana:

• Ranked #25 overall hitter by John Sickels
• Ranked #26 overall prospect by Keith Law
• #25, #17, #25 overall prospect by Baseball America Editors

His swing is considered one of the best in the minors and could easily produce above average numbers at each stop on the way to The Show. Most scouts aren’t worried about his strikeouts getting out of control or his spotty, but, improving defense. He was a shortstop at college and transitioned to third last year. The promotion to Double-A rocked his world as he slashed .183/.238/.387 in 93 at-bats. Now, that is a small sample size to draw upon, however, the peripherals show that there isn’t anything to worry about as his ISO stayed similar (.216 at High-A and .204 at Double-A) and he has a slightly below average BABIP at .275. His age and level of play puts him on the fast track to the majors. He’ll be getting more attention this summer in a Scouting the Unknown. Look for him to start in Double-A. This is a good thing as this puts him on the fast track to the majors with his movement only impeded by fringe players to begin with.

#16 Abner Abreu | RF | A | 19 | .305/.351/.488 | 246 AB | 27 XBH | 7 HR | .183 ISO | 68:11 K:BB | .399 BABIP | 49.3 GB% | 21.6 LD% | 29 FB%
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: his ceiling is tremendously high, his power is absolutely astonishing but he cannot control the strike zone and has too many strikeouts. Abreu’s at-bats are low because he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield in June. Nevertheless, the extremely high BABIP would indicate that his poor strike zone judgment would eventually catch up with him. Remember that his ceiling is high, but his downside is low, as well.

Pitchers
#22 Zach Putnam | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 80 2/3 IP | 4.13 ERA | 2.74 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 9 H/9 | .332 BABIP | 53.6 GB% | 16.5 LD% | 25 FB%
Pitching in relief this past year, Putnam throws a 90 to 94 mph sinking fastball, a slider, and split-finger that is his out-pitch. He also has a change and a curve but doesn’t use them in the bullpen. He’ll get a chance to start at Double-A in 2010, but the Indians aren’t sure where he’ll end up. In the ‘pen, he could provide the Tribe with another power arm that could go more than an inning, or a groundball backend starter. Putnam is definitely one of the more interesting prospects that I have found this off season.

#3 (BOS) Nick Hagadone | LHP | A/A+ | 23 | 11.8 K/9 | 4.8 BB/9 | 45 IP | 2.80 ERA | 3.00 FIP | 1.11 WHIP | 0 Hr/9 | 5.2 H/9 | .265 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 7.6 LD% | 18.5 FB%
Ignore his age as he had Tommy John surgery in 2008 and returned on a strict pitch count in June 2009. Received as a part of the Victor Martinez trade, Hagadone has a 92 to 98 mph fastball, a power slider, and the potential for an above-average defense. Everyone really likes his potential, but I am hesitant to put any sort of hype into Hagadone as his control is sketchy (4.8 BB/9) and he hasn’t pitched many innings in the minors due to his injury. With only 5 innings at High-A, Hagadone has a lot to prove in 2010. His ability to keep the ball on the ground will help his status, he just needs to do this over a full season. At this point, I would reserve any more comments or judgments until further data becomes available.

Chen-Chang Lee | RHP | A+ | 22 | 10.5 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 83 1/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | 2.94 FIP | 1.14 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 7.2 H/9 | .314 BABIP | 46.7 GB% | 11.5 LD% | 36.1 FB%
If Hagadone does what Lee has done in 2009, in 2010, he’ll be receiving my praises. Lee throws a 92 to 93 mph fastball that has topped 96 mph. He also has an average slider and a developing split-finger to combat lefties. His future is in the bullpen and he’ll need to prove himself at Double-A to cement his future as a possible Tribe bullpen member. Think a solid middle-reliever and nothing more.

St. Louis Cardinals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (8) | 2008 (13) | 2007 (23) | 2006 (21) | 2005 (30) | 2004 (28)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [91 – 71] NL Central
AAA: [77 – 67] Pacific Coast League
AA: [71 – 69] Texas League
A+: [61 – 77] Florida State League
A: [61 – 78] Midwest League
A(ss): [37 – 39] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [37 – 30] Appalachian League
R: [25 – 31] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
The Cardinals 2010 ranking isn’t looking pretty (#29) and here is why. Colby Rasmus graduated and they traded their numbers 2,3,4,6,28, and 29 ranked prospects this year, not to mention releasing their number 23 ranked prospect (who was picked up off the waivers by Pittsburgh). Here is the breakdown of what happened:

• Received Matt Holliday (OAK) for (#2 3B) Brett Wallace, (#6 RHP) Clayton Mortensen, (#28 OF) Shane Peterson and $1.5 Million
• Received Mark DeRosa (CLE) for (#3 RHP)Chris Perez and a PTBNL (#4 RHP Jess Todd)
• Received Julio Lugo (BOS) for Chris Duncan and cash
• Received Khalil Greene (SD) for (#29 RHP) Luke Gregerson
• Released (#23 RHP) Tyler Herron

Good thing they resigned Holliday otherwise that would have been one of the largest rental seasons for an entire organization since they lost DeRosa and Greene. I won’t rate the trades, but I will say they lost a gratuitous amount of talent. Grey just mentioned David Freese and what kind of value he may possess, thus I will withhold my comments. Furthermore, the fifth rotation spot is worth watching as the winner may hold more value for you playing in deeper leagues (Jaime Garcia versus Ben Jukich versus P.J. Walters versus Kyle McClellan). Personally, I like Garcia and Jukich. With Spring Training underway, hopefully we (Razzball readers) will start to see some of these players mentioned vying for a 25 man roster spot. Without any further ado, the Cardinals Minor League Review:

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – Gary Daley; Scott Gorgen; Mike Parisi; Adam Reifer
Hitters – (C) Bryan Anderson; (2B) Daniel Descalso; (OF) Tyler Henley; (OF) Daryl Jones

Graduating Prospects
#1 (OF) Colby Rasmus; #8 (RHP) Jason Motte; #14 (RHP) Mitchell Boggs

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#26 Allen Craig | 1B-LF-3B | AAA | 24 | .322/.374/.547 | 472 AB | 53 XBH | 26 HR | .225 ISO | 95:37 K:BB | .358 BABIP | 44.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 36.6 FB%
With Pujols clogging first base for the rest of his career (Yes, I am that sure he’ll remain a Card for life.), Craig isn’t going to get many options to play first base beyond the Pacific Coast League. All the scouting reports mentioned that he’ll probably stay in left field but first base is his best defensive position. His defense is average in the outfield where his below average speed and arm strength are noticeable. However, if Holliday wasn’t resigned, Craig may have been given multiple opportunities to start in the majors this year. Offensively, Craig has the skills to hit between .280 to .300 at the major league level with 20 to 25 homers. His poor strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t necessarily tell how well he controls the zone, yet, this is the culprit for predicting a lower average at the major league level – plus the inflated stat line from the PCL and his high batting average on balls in play (.358). Ranked as the seventh best prospect in the Cards system for 2010, Craig could provide some midseason help off the bench if he continues to play well to start the season. He could also be used as trade bait as the season progresses. He’ll make his major league debut sometime in this season. Just remember, it’s his bat that is going to get him to the majors to stay.

#16 Tyler Greene | SS | AAA | 25 | .291/.369/.482 | 340 AB | 30 XBH | 15 HR | .171 ISO | 31/3 SB/CS | 86:38 K:BB | .354 BABIP | 44.4 GB%| 21.8 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An injury to his kneecap in 2007 derailed much of his confidence and speed as this was the most steals since 2006 when he was at Single-A and High-A. This was easily his best year as a pro and it happened to come while playing in the PCL. I am hesitant to claim he is going to be much more than a utility fielder (supported by the scouting reports). He is vying for that role this spring. His greatest assets is his speed and multiple positions he is able to play. His strike zone judgment is Delmon Young-like and defense is spotty at short. If given a full time gig, you’d be looking at a .260 hitter at best with 30 to 35 steals. Great for fantasy purposes as he looks like Everth Cabrera but he is four years Cabrera’s senior. With the recent signing of Felipe Lopez, look for Greene to be back at Triple-A.

Pitchers
#13 Jaime Garcia | LHP | R/A+/AAA | 23 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 37 2/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 3.69 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | 6 H/9 | .212 BABIP | 62.4 GB% | 6.4 LD% | 24 FB%
Following two straight seasons (2007 and 2008) of ending with elbow problems, Garcia went under the knife of Dr. Freeze in 2008 and returned for the end of the 2009. Since his 2009 season is such a small sample, here is his career line:

8.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 402 IP | 3.49 ERA | 3.71 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .308 BABIP | 58.7 GB% | 14. LD% | 23.4 FB%

Note the groundball ratio (slightly over two-to-one) and the good strikeout rates. He has an 88 to 92 mph fastball with a devastating curve and a new cutter he developed while rehabbing. The favorite to win the fifth rotation sport, Garcia still has to prove he is durable enough to pitch a full season. Further, his control is inconsistent. Don’t be surprised to see the Cards place him at Triple-A for a couple of months and call him up at the end of May. Think of J.A. Happ (but a groundball pitcher instead) and Randy Wells (without the control) for his expectations for 2010. While everyone is watching Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Brain Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Madison Bumgarner, keep an eye on Jaime Garcia. With Dave Duncan as his coach and the revival of Joel Pinero’s career via extreme groundball splits, Garcia could provide excellent value in 2010.

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Jukich had a great year, but with better defense (as noted by Bryan Smith from FanGraphs) and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%) he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is non-existent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc). I accidentally placed him in the Cincinnati Reds Minor League Review, however, with the Cardinals he is vying for the fifth rotation spot with Jaime Garcia and P.J. Walters. Read Garcia’s ending sentences about Dave Duncan for what Jukich could provide in 2010.

#17 P.J. Walters | RHP | AAA | 24 | 8.4 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 121 IP | 4.54 ERA | 3.58 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 9.5 H/9 | .348 BABIP | 49 GB% | 18 LD% | 27.9 FB%
Walters is a finesse pitcher with a deceptive changeup and an 88 to 91 mph fastball. He saw 16 innings of the major league last year too. He isn’t sexy and doesn’t have the skills to overpower hitters at the major league level. His control and durability are better than Garcia’s. However, his upside is nowhere near Garcia’s. Walters had a high batting average on balls in play (.348), which inflated some of his peripherals (ERA and WHIP). With a more normal BABIP, Walter’s could provide some nice fifth starter value for the Cards. His upside is Aaron Cook. Nothing stellar, but serviceable.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Tyler Henley | RF | AA | 24 | .303/.367/.482 | 423 AB | 47 XBH | 13 HR | .179 ISO | 9/4 SB/CS | 64:40 K:BB (15.1 K% | 8.5 BB%) | .312 BABIP
Invited to spring training and ranked number 18 in the current Baseball America Handbook (non-roster invite), I am not sure why he doesn’t have extended stats at Minor League Splits but he doesn’t. Oh well. Henley projects as a fourth outfielder with good contact skills and strike zone judgment, solid but not great defense and gap power. The Cards have other high ceiling outfield prospects in their system and Henley happens to be the lowest ceiling but most predictable. If there are several injuries to the outfield to the major league club, Henley may be the one called upon to cover the open spot.

#25 Steven Hill | C-1B | AA | 24 | .282/.333/.470 | 464 AB | 47 XBH | 19 HR | .168 ISO | 106:36 K:BB | .326 BABIP | 41.9 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.3 FB%
Defensively, he is a liability and his future as a catcher seems to be closing. Swing for the fences only works for so long in the minors before the pitchers catch on. The reason I mention him is that his defense could improve and natural power is difficult to teach. Let’s watch how the 2010 season unfolds for him. If things go well, he could be a sleeper candidate in 2011.

Pitchers
Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | A+/AA | 20 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 75 IP | 2.28 ERA | 3.49 FIP | .92 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | 5.3 H/9 | .234 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 30.2 FB%
He was aided by an extremely low BABIP (.234) and an even lower one at High-A (.185). Mainly a closer or late inning setup man, Sanchez could provide a mid season boost to a rather uninteresting bullpen for the Cards. He has a 94 to 97 mph fastball and a good slider. Touted as the next closer (over Motte) for the Cardinals because he is actually able to control his pitches. He has the makings of a great closer or reliever with ability to blow his pitches past the batters and keep the ball on the ground (51.3 GB%). For those MR. B’s out there, Sanchez may help sooner rather than later. Might be a midseason call up as he needs to work on his game a little more.

#15 Lance Lynn | RHP | AA | 22 | 7 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 3.79 FIP | 1.33 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .307 BABIP | 47.9 FB% | 16.6 LD% | 31.1 FB%
Possesses an 89 to 92 mph sinking fastball and a solid slider, curveball, and changeup. An inning eater type pitcher, Lynn looks poised for a good season in 2010. If that happens, 2011 may be when he makes his MLB debut.

Baltimore Orioles 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (9) | 2008 (16) | 2007 (17) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (18)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [64 – 98] AL East
AAA: [71 – 71] International League
AA: [73 – 69] Eastern League
A+: [64 – 75] Carolina League
A: [66 – 70] South Atlantic League
A(ss): [30 – 44] New York – Pennsylvania
R: [30 – 26] Gulf Coast League
R: [33 – 35] Appalachian League

The Run Down
The Orioles 2009 season was full of rookies and their possibilities. They graduated eight players, and nearly nine as Brian Matusz fell short by one solid start (5 1/3 IP). Everyone was awaiting Wieters’ promotion, but it was Nolan Reimold who stole the rookie show while Chris Tillman roofied your pitching staff. Nevertheless, for those savvy fantasy players, there was always Brad Bergesen who was helpful before he was hurt in August. If you’re looking for Grey’s article about Brian Matusz’s Fantasy Outlook for 2010 and where he ranked Chris Tillman and Matusz in his Top 80 Starters article, there ya go… It’s going to be difficult for the Orioles to compete in the East that is dominated by New York and Boston. However, there are some nice young players that received little hype prior to the 2009 season that should still fly under the radar. Namely Reimold, Tillman (because he didn’t pitch like Tommy Hanson), and Brad Bergesen. While everyone wants in on the Wieters, Roberts and Jones, look for the Reimold, Markakis and Tillman/Matusz to perform better than their ADP. If you want to review, Tillman’s Scouting the Unknown, enjoy the reading.

Graduating Prospects
#1 (C) Matt Wieters; #2 (RHP) Chris Tillman; #5 (OF) Nolan Reimold; #16 (RHP)David Hernandez; #17 (RHP) Jason Berken; #18 (RHP) Brad Bergesen; #28 (OF) Lou Montanoz; (SS) Robert Andino

Arizona Fall League Players – Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers – Brandon Erbe; Eddie Gamboa; Josh Perrault; Ryohei Tanaka
Hitters – (3B) Josh Bell; (1B) Brandon Synder; (1B) Brandon Waring; (OF) Mat Angle

Players of Interest – 2010
Hitters
#8 (LAD) Josh Bell | 3B | AA | 22 | .295/.376/.516 | 448 AB | 57 XBH | 20 HR | .221 ISO | 98:61 K:BB | .342 BABIP | 45.6 GB% | 18.2 LD% | 36.1 FB%
Received in the George Sherrill trade last year, Bell is the future third baseman for the Orioles. Meaning, 2010 – just waiting for Miguel Tejada and, or, Garrett Atkins to stumble or get hurt. However, don’t let “future …” get into your head. His upside is .270 to .290 with 20 to 25 homers a season. Think Adrian Beltre, but without the glove – Bell’s glove is average at best. He’ll be given every opportunity to earn the third base position in the next 18 months as Baltimore lacks many quality bats in their farm system. This is most notable outside the first base position.

#9 Brandon Snyder | 1B | AA/AAA | 22 | .289/.362/.460 | 463 AB | 52 XBH | 12 HR | .171 ISO | 109:51 K:BB | .356 BABIP | 41.8 GB% | 22.2 LD% | 36 FB%

The numerous extra base hits look great, but what Snyder provides is gap power with the ability to hit 15 to 20 homers during his prime. It’s important to note that he struggled mightily while at Triple-A posting a slash line of .248/.316/.355 in 263 at-bats. Scouting reports note that he was trying to prove his power potential, thus, he was pull-conscious and swinging for the fences. Upon his promotion mid-season to Triple-A, Snyder was aided by an extremely high BABIP (.400). His defense at first base is above-average and looks like a Conor Jackson-type skill set. Nothing to scoff at, just not exciting. If the Orioles are ravaged by injuries and he performs well, his ETA could be this upcoming summer. Otherwise, watch for his name in September.

Pitchers
#4 Jake Arrieta | RHP | AA/AAA | 23 | 8.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 150 2/3 IP | 3.40 ERA | 3.63 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | 8.5 H/9 | .312 BABIP | 38.6 GB% | 18.1 LD% | 37.1 FB%
@AA: 10.7 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 59 IP | 2.59 ERA | 3.00 FIP | 1.15 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | 6.9 H/9 | .281 BABIP | 36 GB%
10.2 LD% | 48.3 FB%
@AAA: 7.7 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 91 2/3 IP | 3.93 ERA | 3.97 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | 9.5 H/9 | .323 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 21.9 LD% | 31.6 FB%
I included the stats/ratios from Double and Triple-A on purpose. Overall his numbers look pretty good. Upon further examination though, it was noticeable that he struggled somewhat at Triple-A. Nearly 24 (birthday is on 3/6/86 aka this Saturday), Arrieta isn’t going to be written off. His track record shows that he is an effective starter that can strikeout nine batters per nine innings and limiting the number of hits allowed (7.6 H/9 career). Arrieta did lead all minors with 148 strikeouts in those 150 innings. Improving his command will be a key for him to make it to the majors in 2010. For a more detailed look at him, look at his Scouting the Unknown.

#6 Brandon Erbe | RHP | AA | 21 | 7.6 K/9 | 4.3 BB/9 | 73 IP | 2.34 ERA| 4.09 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | .205 BABIP | 41.9 GB% | 10.7 LD% | 40.9 FB%
Often injured, Erbe possesses as much upside as Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta. His mechanics are better than they once were, but that’s like saying Nick Punto is better than Paulie Punto, his brother who never played baseball. It just doesn’t take that much. This is more of a shoutout than a guy you can count on. He throws his fastball between 93 and 95 mph, a sick, nasty slider and a potentially plus change. Having the potential to strikeout a batter every inning is what every fantasy manager lusts after, but don’t gaga for this surgically made man.

#10 Kam Mickolio | RHP | AAA | 25 | 10.7 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 43 2/3 IP | 3.50 ERA | 3.25 FIP | 1.10 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | 6.6 H/9 | .272 BABIP | 28.6 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 45.4 FB%
Nothing more than a middle reliever for fantasy purposes. He is able to get his fastball up to 98 mph to partner with a ankle-biting slider. This combo allows for him to post some nice K-rates. His mechanics are sloppy and inconsistent. Consequently, like Erbe, his control is spotty. With a rather empty bullpen beyond Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson and Cla Meredith, there should be a spot for Mickolio to make the 25-man roster out of spring training.

Jim Miller | RHP | AAA | 27 | 8.2 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 64 2/3 IP | 2.64 ERA| 2.87 FIP | 1.28 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 8.2 H/9 | .324 BABIP | 32.8 GB% | 25.3 LD% | 39.4 FB%
A bit old, but another middle reliever for everyone to watch this spring. He has better control of his pitches and doesn’t have the injury risk. A career 10 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 pitcher in the bullpen could be wonderfully delightful for the Orioles. If you want to see his ETA, look up about three inches.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#26 Brandon Waring | 1B/3B | A+ | 23 | .273/.353/.520 | 473 AB | 63 XBH | 26 HR | .247 ISO | 121:51 K:BB | .318 BABIP | 34.5 GB% | 12.7 LD% | 52.6 FB%
Power? Check. High Strikeout totals? Check. Future? Uncertain. Received as part of the Ramon Hernandez trade to the Reds for Ryan Freel and Justin Turner to provide a clear opening for Wieters. Waring provides plenty of intriguing possibilities himself. He played first base this past year so another prospect could play third. Plus, he probably won’t stay at third for very long. Reducing his strikeout rates from 156 time in 441 AB in 2008 to 130 times in 497 AB shows considerable progress. There is concern that he’ll end up as a Quad-A/Triple-A slugger or a power bat off the bench. However you look at it, Waring provides plenty of questions only he can answer. Power can’t be taught, but the other aspects of his game can. He received 29 PA at Double-A last year and expect to see him there to open the seaosn.

#30 Caleb Joseph | C | A+ | 23 | .284/.337/.450 | 380 AB | 37 XBH | 12 HR | .166 ISO | 64:26 K:BB | .317 BABIP | 37.5 GB% | 11.9 LD% | 50.6 FB%
Not that the Orioles need another catching prospect, right? Well, a solid backup or trade bait never hurt. Joseph should be the former as he is trending towards being an average prospect. His 2010 Baseball America ranking is 10. In 2009, Joseph proved himself as a good defender with an acceptable arm from behind the plate. His swing isn’t going to produce a lot of extra base hits, but he’ll make solid contact. His plate discipline, in terms of walking, isn’t great, but he doesn’t swing go outside the strike zone too often either. Next year will be a big test for him at Double-A to see how he handles the pitching staff, his hitting, and defense.

Ronnie Welty | RF | A | 21 | .290/.373/.425 | 431 AB | 36 XBH | 10 HR | .145 ISO | 13/5 SB/CS | 120:46 K:BB | .383 BABIP | 50.6 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 34.8 FB%

Pitchers
#12 Zach Britton | LHP | A+ | 21 | 8.4 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 140 IP | 2.70 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | .4 HR/9
Minor League Splits didn’t have his extended stats on their website. Interesting since he is one of their top arms. Armed with an 88 to 92 mph two-seam fastball, an improving changeup that started as average, and a four-seam fastball. His ground outs to air outs was a startling 3.38 GO/AO. That is jaw dropping. He’ll get more attention as the season goes along, but he could be the next “sleeper” minor league pitcher – maybe my next Jeremy Hellickson (the minor league pitcher I drool over until he gets his MLB promotion).

Milwaukee Brewers 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (10) | 2008 (21) | 2007 (5) | 2006 (5) | 2005 (3) | 2004 (1)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [80 – 82] NL Central
AAA: [75 – 69] Pacific Coast League
AA: [63 – 75] Southern League
A+: [79 – 48] Florida League
A: [58-81] Midwest League
R: [25 – 31] Arizona League
R: [32 – 44] Pioneer League

The Run Down
In terms of rankings, 2008 was so low because they gave up some top chips to rent CC Sabathia for a couple of months. What’s impressive though, is how they rebounded within a year to jump eleven spots. Honestly, this article was one of the more challenging to write for how many lower level prospects the Brewers have stocked piled. Everyone knows of the Alcides Escobar sleeper post; 2010 shortstop rankings; and Top 300 overall rankings – 186) and Mat Gamel has been mentioned more than enough. Thus, I will withhold comments and analysis about those two players unless asked in the comments. Further, there are several players who are in the low(er) minors that deserve mentioning, but due to space will get a shout out. For example, Wily Peralta (ranked #22), a reliever this past year, had the following rates, 10.2 K/9, 4 BB/9 in 103 IP at Class-A ball. Eric Arnett is one of the Brewers top prospects (just drafted this year) but just finished rookie ball. Cody Scarpetta (ranked #15) has tremendous upside, yet is just finished Class-A.

In short, their farm system is heavy down in the low(er) minors. Most of this talent is going to be moving up another level. I will be mentioning more names in “Honorable Mentions” due to the fact that many won’t see the majors until a couple of years down the road.

Graduating Prospects
(LHP) Chris Narveson; (LHP) Mitch Stetter; from Boston (C) George Kotteras

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – (RHP) #19 Omar Aguilar; (LHP) #12 Zach Braddock; (RHP) Josh Butler; (RHP) Robert Wooten
Hitters – (C) #10 Jonathan Lucroy; (3B) #8 Tyler Green; (CF) #6 Lorenzo Cain

Players of Interest 2010
Hitters
#3 Brett Lawrie | 2B | A | 19 | .274/.348/.454 | 372 AB | 36 XBH | 13 HR | .180 ISO | 19/11 SB/CS | 70:41 K:BB | .308 BABIP | 43.8 GB% | 15.6 LD% | 40.6 FB%
The only question about Lawrie from scouts, farm directors and analysts is “What position should he play?” Drafted as a catcher, suggested to play third or right field, the Brewers placed him at second. Lawrie is the top power hitting prospect for the Brew Crew, even more than Mat Gamel. At the end of the season he was given a call up to Double-A where he struggled, slashing .269/.283/.308 in 52 AB Given his age and small sample size, this brief appearance shouldn’t worry anyone. His stick is solid, with 30 homer potential, he should also hit for decent average (.275 to .290) as he has a good eye at the plate, but does become pull conscious which can cause prolonged slumps. Nevertheless, Lawrie is on the fast track to the majors. As we all know, with Rickie Weeks often injured, this could be sooner rather than later. Still don’t hope for anything more than a September call-up this year or, more likely, a June call-up in 2011.

#5 Angel Salome | C | AAA | 24 | .286/.334/.412 | 283 AB | 22 XBH | 6 HR | .127 ISO | 55:23 K:BB | .328 BABIP | 48 GB% | 23.8 LD% | 28.2 FB%
Prior to the 2009 season, Salome was considered the Brewers catcher of the future. However, after a rather disappointing season – league average OPS and an injury – Lucroy has leapfrogged him on the depth chart. Salome has a plus arm from behind the plate, gap power, strong plate discipline, and hits for decent average. His career slash line is .316/364/.483 and this was his first “poor” year. He may be destined for a backup role in the majors. The skills – good plate discipline, good average and gap power – are in place where he could have value in deep leagues, or two-catcher leagues, in 2011 if he has a starting job. With Lucroy on his heels, the signings of Gregg Zaun and George Kottaras, it seems like the Brewers have given him the finger and told Lucroy to improve upon his great year.

#10 Jonathan Lucroy | C | AA | 23 | .267/.380/.418 | 419 AB | 43 XBH | 9 HR | .150 ISO | 66:79 K:BB | .294 BABIP | 36.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 45.6 FB%
Speaking of Lucroy … Although his power was a disappointment this past year (had 20 homers in 2008), his plate discipline and control of the strike zone was impressive as were the 32 doubles. The GB, LD and FB rates correspond well to developing and continuing power trends towards high teen power potential. His arm isn’t as strong as Salome but his defense is better overall (fewer passed balls and errors). Lucroy will need to repeat last year’s overall production to continue as the catcher of the future. One thing to note, his OPS has decreased at each level/promotion besides rookie ball to Class-A (R: .871; A: .897; A+: .846; AA: .800). His ETA is no sooner than a September call-up and a 25 man roster spot in 2011.

Pitchers
#12 Zach Braddock | LHP | A+/AA | 21 | 13.8 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 40 1/3 IP | 1.79 ERA | 2.18 FIP | .87 WHIP | .9 HR/9 | 6.2 H/9 | .300 BABIP | 36.3 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 47.3 FB%
The positive:  his walk rates were greatly reduced from his career norms. The negatives:  he was pushed to the bullpen, his mechanics predict more injuries in the future, and he’s already had Tommy John surgery to go along with elbow and shoulder problems.  Braddock’s fastball is gunned between 90 and 94 mph with decent movement, a hard, biting slider and a decent changeup. However, as a reliever, he is able to use his fastball-slider combo effectively against lefties (.174 average). He was also able to reduce his walk rates from nearly 5 BB/9 in the past to 1.6 BB/9 in 2009. This could be due to a small sample size, or the fact that his new role better suits his talent. If he stays a reliever, his ETA is much higher than as a starter. Nothing to wage a bidding war over, but Braddock could supply a MR. B with some cheap ratios or holds in the future.

Josh Butler | RHP | R/A+/AA/AAA | 24 | 7.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 118 1/3 IP | 2.97 ERA | 3.60 FIP | 1.30 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .317 BABIP | 45.8 GB% | 25 LD% | 18.8 FB%
Not a ranked prospect by Baseball America in 2009 due to a poor 2008 season. However, after recovering from a few nagging injuries in 2008, Butler pitched well in 2009. He spent most of his time predominately at High-A and Double-A (44 IP at A+ and 50 IP at AA). Although his groundball rate isn’t very high, his GO/AO is 1.9, which is pretty spectacular. Having a 90 to 95 mph sinking fastball is why this rate is so high. Also, he throws a “solid” curve and slider. He projects as a number four starter (upside) or bullpen depth. If he starts the year off well and the Brewers have an injury or two in their rotation — *cough Dave Bush/Jeff Suppan cough* — he could be called upon for a spot start or two. Let’s all forget his terrible Arizona Fall League performance and blame this due to fatigue after a long season.

#4 Jeremy Jeffress | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 10.4 K/9 | 8.2 BB/9 | 60 1/3 IP | 4.62 ERA | 4.59 FIP | 1.61 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 6.3 H/9 | .282 BABIP | 55.5 GB% | 8.5 LD% | 24.4 FB%
I am obligated to place Jeffress on this list as he has tremendous amounts of talent but probably won’t make an impact in 2010. However, his high prospect ranking (#4 for the Brewers and #100 overall) and notoriety keep him in the first list.
Having already been suspended twice for an illegal substance (i.e. marijuana), Jeffress is squandering an arm that can easily hit 98 to 100 mph on the radar gun. If Jeffress gets another violation, whether PED’s or drugs, the hits he’ll see will be only from his blunt. Yes, that’s right, he’ll be kicked out of the league after his next violation. Nevertheless, unless he can start to control his pitches (fastball and potential plus-curve) his future in the majors will stall out before then. He threw 33 IP at High-A and 27 IP at Double-A. While at Double-A his rates were as follows; 11.2 K/9 and 10.9 BB/9. His future is definitely in doubt, especially with April twentieth just around the corner.

Rob Wooten | RHP | A+/AA | 23 | 12.2 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 57 1/3 IP | 2.67 ERA | 3.44 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .333 BABIP | 41.6 FB% | 13 LD% | 41.6 FB%
Not the most talented guy out there. John Sickels called him a “junk baller” and Baseball America doesn’t even rank him. Wooten may be a lot like Mitch Stetter, gets by on pitching brilliance but is only a reliever at best. Nothing special here, but if injuries in the bullpen becomes an issue, Wooten may get his chance if he pitches well at Triple-A next year.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#27 Eric Farris | 2B | A+ | 23 | .298/.341/.385 | 473 AB | 26 XBH | 7 HR | .087 ISO | 70/6 SB/CS | 46:29 K:BB | .323 BABIP | 54.8 GB% | 17.2 LD% | 27.3 GB%
At this point, Farris is a player that can hit for good average and steal a ton of bases. His walking skills are mediocre at best, but he utilizes his speed by bunting and playing “little ball” well. Defensively, Farris has a solid glove. Oh, and SAGNOF, especially when you steal 70 bases in 76 tries.

#14 Caleb Gindl | RF | A+ | 20 | .277/.363/.459 | 394 AB | 35 XBH | 17 HR | .182 ISO | 18/4 SB/CS | 92:57 K:BB | .329 BABIP | 40.8 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 43 FB%
The men over at The Hardball Times believe Gindl is the Brewers third best prospect going into 2010, behind Alcides Escobar and Brett Lawrie (Mat Gamel has graduated their list). Scouts don’t like his “unathletic” body and his “poor speed,” however, all his numbers (like Total Zone) point towards him playing average right field with an average to above-aveage arm. Baseball America compares his body to Brian Giles. Take that with a grain of salt as current perceptions of Giles don’t elicit greatness or optimism. He may strikeout a lot (274 times in 1109 AB) but he walks at a decent rate (140 walks in 1109 AB) showing pretty good judgment of the strike zone. Not great, but sufficient. His upside is 20 homers with 20 steals. However, the steals are a product of reading the pitchers and not high end speed. His upside could be a Shin-Soo Choo circa 2009. Still a year or two away from the majors.

#29 Logan Schafer | CF | A+ | 22 | .313/.369/.446 | 457 AB | 43 XBH | 6 HR | .133 ISO | 16/8 SB/CS | 53:38 K:BB | .346 BABIP | 47.3 FB% | 15.1 LD% | 37.1 FB%
His defense is Gold-Glove caliber, but his hitting is destined to make him a fourth outfielder. Nothing he does, besides defense, is noteworthy. However, there is time for him to improve enough where he supplies sufficient stats when playing hot.

Pitchers
Evan Anundsen | RHP | A+ | 21 | 8.1 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 130 1/3 IP | 2.69 ERA | 2.91 FIP | 1.09 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | 7 H/9 | .284 BABIP | 51.9 GB% | 13.8 LD% | 28.4 FB%
If his 2010 season is like his 2009, you’ll see him jump up some prospect boards. He is able to eat innings and gobble up batters by inducing an amazing ground ball rate (58.2 GB% for his career – 402 IP). His career numbers don’t look all that impressive (402 IP | 7 K/9 | .312 BABIP | 58.2 GB%), but any pitcher who can keep the ball in the park (.1 HR/9 in 2009) and get outs will eventually make their way to the majors. Think Aaron Cook. Not exciting but serviceable.

Dan Merklinger | LHP | A/A+ | 23 | 9.2 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 91 1/3 IP | 2.56 ERA | 3.32 FIP | 1.14 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | 7.1 H/9 | .287 BABIP | 44.7 GB% | 11.4 LD% | 37 FB%
The strikeout rate is nice as is his homer rate (.5 Hr/9). Double-A will prove whether he’ll be able to develop.

#26 Amaury Rivas | RHP | A+ | 23 | 8.3 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 133 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.76 FIP | 1.14 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .276 BABIP | 51.4 GB% | 12.7 LD% | 31.5 FB%
Rivas projects to be a number three or four starter. His stuff is better than Merklinger’s (90 to 92 mph fastball topping out at 94 to 95, a slider and a change up that isn’t always consistent). Aided by a low BABIP (.276), Rivas will need to keep up his ground ball rate for success at the next level.

Caleb Thielbar | LHP | R | 22 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 47 IP | 1.53 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.11 WHIP | .2 HR/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .319 BABIP | 50.3 GB% | 13.1 LD% | 29.7 FB%
As with every Brewers review I’ll do, there will have to be a shout out to my former teammate in high school. Back in August, I wrote a Scouting the Unknown mentioning his drafting by the Brewers in the introduction. I don’t have any specs on his pitches currently. It is important to note that he should be moved up to Low-A and or High-A next year and start down the same path as Amaury Rivas or even Braddock without the injuries. You can never have enough lefties in your farm system. I wish all the best for this small town prospect.

Kansas City Royals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (11) | 2008 (24) | 2007 (11) | 2006 (23) | 2005 (28) | 2004 (19)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [65 – 97] AL Central
AAA: [64 – 80] Pacific Coast League
AA: [73 – 67] Texas League
A+: [84 – 55] Carolina League
A: [64 – 75] Midwest League
R: [43 – 31] Pioneer League
R: [20 – 35] Arizona Rookie League
R: [24 – 44] Appalachian League

The Run Down
Dayton Moore gets ripped more than the current administration does for health care. The Yuniesky Betancourt trade, the Mike Jacobs trade and several signings are worthy of scorn. Well, here is some news for people, amidst all these major league signings and trades, Moore has corralled a tremendous amount of “high upside” prospects. Truly. Some experts have the 2010 Royals farm system ranked ninth overall (Keith Law) and Baseball America has yet to weigh in for the 2010 season (their book comes out in late February). Much of this talent though is at the lower levels and still needs to be developed. There are several prospects that I am not mentioning because they either just finished the 2009 season at rookie ball (John Lamb, Tyler Sample, and Tim Melville) or that they didn’t get a chance to play due to when they signed (Aaron Crow (yes, the 2008 #1 draft pick of Washington whom they failed to sign) and Noel Arguelles, a left-handed Cuban defect who has great upside as a pitcher). 2010 will be a make or break year for a couple of top prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer), more the latter than the former. Finally, Kansas City has some reason to be excited.

Graduating Prospects
#23 – (OF) Mitch Maier

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – (RHP) Aaron Hartsock, (LHP) Brandon Sisk, (LHP) Ben Swaggerty, #10 (RHP) Blake Wood
Hitters – (2B/SS) Jeff Bianchi, #1 (3B) Moustakas, #15 (CF) David Lough

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#9 Kila Ka’aihue | 1B | AAA | 25 | .252/.392/.433 | 441 AB | 45 XBH | 17 HR | .181 ISO | 85:102 K:BB | .277 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 41.5 FB%
Kila Ka’aihue jacked the ball everywhere in 2008 with 27 homers at Double-A and 11 homers at Triple-A. 2009 wasn’t quite as friendly (17 homers), nor was his production anywhere near his 2008 “breakout season.” There has been speculation around his frustration with management’s decision to trade for Mike Jacobs and not let him tryout in Spring Training. A change of scenery may actually be a good thing for his future. Here is his Scouting the Unknown article I wrote about him last July. This link also has a pronunciation key. For those of you too lazy to click the link: pronounced – KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a.  Grey went over Ka’aihue’s fantasy prospects in the 2009 preseason.

Hindered by a lower than normal BABIP (.277), Ka’aihue slumped through the second half of the season. His batting eye is beyond stellar (two straight years with more than 100 walks) and considering that minor league players usually play a month less than their major league counterparts, having 100 walks is pretty darn impressive. Additionally, in 555 Triple-A at-bats (across two years), he’s hit for a .211 ISO. The power is legit. If given the chance at full playing time, the Royals could have a 25 homer, .400 OBP first baseman/DH. Instead, Mr. Moobs will play first, with Mr. Slacker (Jose Guillen) DH’ing. Don’t be surprised to see Ka’aihue traded sooner rather than later. If Jose Guillen decides to get hurt, Ka’aihue should be the first man called up.

#15 David Lough | CF | A+/AA | 23 | .325/.370/.496 | 458 AB | 46 XBH | 14 HR | .171 ISO | 64:24 K:BB | 19/9 SB/CS | .367 BABIP | 48.8 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 34..3 FB%
This is a fringe prospect with the possibility of slightly overachieving. Not amazing at any one skill, Lough plays solid defense with a marginal arm, above average base running and stealing skills that are consistently improving. He doesn’t have a great feel of the strike zone and consequently is dependent upon a high average of any sort of success. With such a high BABIP (.367), this could hamper any sort of development at the higher levels. Since he wasn’t solely a baseball player at college, his age isn’t the normal indicator of minor league level in regards to his actual ability. 2010 will be the true test. His upside is 15 to 18 homers with 15 to 20 steals. A mid-summer call-up in 2011 is likely his ETA.

Pitchers
#8 Carlos Rosa | RHP | AAA | 24 | 10.1 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 71 IP | 4.56 ERA | 3.80 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | 8.7 H/9 | .356 BABIP | 49.2 GB% | 15.6 LD% | 30.2 FB%
With career rates of 50.4 GB% | 15.1 LD% | 31.8 FB% | 7.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9, Rosa looks poised to be a member of the bullpen in the upcoming season. (He threw 10 1/3 MLB innings in September 2009.) With a fastball that is clocked between 90 and 96 mph, a slightly above-average slider and a good changeup, Rosa could become a solid setup man for Soria or even eventually become the closer (in a couple of years). For all you middle reliever believers (Mr. B’s), keep your eyes keenly on Rosa’s spring training efforts, especially if you’re seeking holds.

Honorable Mentions
In these two subsections, you will find the Royals top two hitting prospects (Moustakas and Hosmer) and their top pitching prospect (Montgomery). This is because they are all still so young and low in the minor league ladder.

Hitters
#1 Mike Moustakas | 3B | A+ | 20 | .250/.297/.421 | 492 AB | 50 XBH | 16 HR | .171 ISO | 90:32 K:BB | 10/6 SB/CS | .280 BABIP | 42.3 GB% | 13 LD% | 44.4 FB%
After arriving with 22 homers in his first year, his sophomore slump came. Sickels, of Minor League Ball, points out his Home/Road splits were the main culprit to his stats (Home: .208/.269/.381 Road: .292/.331/.473), noting that the Royals High-A home field is difficult to play in if you’re a hitter. Another concern a few scouts have noted is how his body is transforming into a doppelganger of Butler. The added weight hasn’t deterred the Royals yet. From a fantasy perspective, he’ll have to hit well next year to stay on the fast track to the majors. This doesn’t necessarily mean 30 homers with a .350/.425/.550 slash line. However, we will want to see an improvement upon his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. Furthermore, it would be reassuring to see a higher line drive rate. This would show that he is making more consistent hard contact. I am still on his bandwagon, but he needs to continue to move forward.

#2 Eric Hosmer | 1B | A/A+ | 19 | .241/.334/.361 | 337 AB | 29 XBH | 6 HR | .120 ISO | 90:53 K:BB | .296 BABIP | 62.5 GB% | 12.4 LD% | 24.8 FB%
Hosmer struggled hardcore at High-A. Receiving Lasik surgery this past year, Hosmer, like other baseball players, claimed he wasn’t seeing the ball well and is hoping this surgery will improve his problem. Extremely talented and skilled, Hosmer was drafted straight out of high school with the third overall pick as scouts were drooling over his polished swing and poised hitting approach, not to mention a potential power hitting lefty. Playing in the pitching heavy Midwest League (Single-A) for most of the year, Hosmer held his own, but he’ll have to show that 2009 was more fluke than the norm.

#11 Johnny Giavotella | 2B | A+ | 21 | .258/.351/.380 | 476 AB | 38 XBH | 6 HR | .122 ISO | 54:66 K:BB | 26/9 SB/CS | .286 BABIP | 47.2 GB% | 17.4 LD% | 35 FB%
Nothing spectacular here, just a solid second baseman. And not solid like, “Oh, I really, really want him to anchor my infield (fantasy wise).” Solid like Luis Castillo. Someone who can work the count, steal bases well and doesn’t slack off. Giavotella has never been regarded as an extremely powerful hitter, but he could develop like Castillo and give the fantasy player 25 steals. He has a career slash line of .273/.352/.395 in 754 at-bats with 91:88 K:BB ratio.

Pitchers
#4 Mike Montgomery | LHP | A/A+ | 19 | 8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 110 IP | 2.21 ERA | 2.84 FIP | 1.06 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | 6.5 H/9 | .260 BABIP | 49.7 GB% | 12.3 LD% | 31 FB%
His walk rate was 3.7 BB/9 at Single-A and was only 2.1 BB/9 at High-A, and this was only some of his improvements. Pitching 58 innings at Single-A and 52 innings at High-A, Montgomery’s stock shot up the board. His curveball is considered his best pitch, but scouts still think his 89 to 93 mph fastball has more potential to develop velocity and movement. He also throws an average changeup and the rare palmball. He is already on the fast track, don’t be surprised if Montgomery receives a September call-up if his 2010 season goes well. He’ll probably be getting a Scouting the Unknown article sometime in the upcoming summer.

As a Twins fan, he’s is the one player I would worry about in the Royals farm system with Mauer, Morneau, Span, and Kubel all being left handed hitters, especially Kubel who can’t touch lefties.

#16 Danny Duffy | LHP | A+ | 20 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 126 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 3.08 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 7.7 H/9 | .294 BABIP | 42.2 GB% | 12.1 LD% | 37.4 FB%
Projecting as a number three pitcher in the rotation, Duffy has pitched well to date. The strikeout rates and control are worthy of more than I can give him at the moment. Playing above his age group and pitching well has improved his stock. With an 88 to 92 mph fastball that grades above-average, a deceptive changeup and a curve that’s his out-pitch, Duffy could see major league action, at the soonest, in 2011.

Blaine Hardy | LHP | A | 22 | 9.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 92 1/3 IP | 2.05 ERA | 2.50 FIP | .95 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | 6.9 H/9 | .285 BABIP | 39.6 GB% | 11.9 LD% | 44.1 FB%
I’m a sucker for good strikeout rates and above-average control. Hardy is a fringe prospect at best. With a 87 to 89 mph fastball and marginal curve and a power slider (80 mph), he’ll need to repeat these numbers again for any serious consideration. Could become a solid reliever or fifth starter.