Fantasy Baseball Advice

The inaugural inductions to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame are now complete.  In all, 43 players were enshrined and many of them, no doubt, were childhood heroes for a good percentage of the Razzball.com readership.  Fantasy baseball is largely about having a good time and it makes sense to take a step back from time to time and make sure we aren’t taking ourselves too seriously.  Remembering great players and great seasons should be about memories above all else.  I hope it has been.

At the end of each year FBHOF.com will scour through the latest batch of stats to see if any others deserve to be remembered in this manner as well.  However, one may view the actual inductions as a relatively minor part of what FBHOF is all about.  Anything ‘great’ is eligible for discussion and if there is anything you would like to see, please drop me a line.

In this vein, the next topic to explore is the Fantasy All Stars from each season.  In the coming weeks we’ll construct the best 23 players from each season and elect them to an “All Star” team – keeping track of trends, snubs, and eyeing the great seasons of each year.  When we through with each of the 28 teams I hope to crown a champion based upon the results of an extremely popular online historical baseball simulation.  More on this later as the details are ironed out.

All Star roster construction will be determined by FBHOF Score with a keen eye towards positional requirements.  The standard Fantasy team requires:

2 Catchers,
1 First Basemen,
1 Second Basemen,
1 Third Basemen
1 Shortstop
5 Outfielders
1 Middle Infielder
1 Corner Infielder
1 Utility
6 Starting Pitchers
3 Closers

Our All-Star squads will strictly adhere to the above.  This means each year several players, batters mostly, will be in among the top scorers but not elected due to positional requirements.   Interestingly, one player has been snubbed more than any other and his FBHOF situation parallels his real life career where he may find himself on the outside looking to the Cooperstown Hall of Fame.

Year: 1980
First Time All Stars: All
3 Time All Stars: N/A
5 Time All Stars: N/A
10 Time All Stars: N/A
Future FBHOF’ers: 5 – Steve Carlton, Rickey Henderson, Eddie Murray, Mike Schmidt, Robin Yount
Snubs: Tony Armas Jr. (10.4), Al Bumbry (10.2), Andre Dawson (10.4), Keith Hernandez (11.2)
16 Pt Seasons: 1 – Carlton (17.5)

The inaugural season of the Fantasy Era wasn’t exactly a banner year for the few die hard Rotisserie players of the day.  Sure, with Mike Schmidt, Robin Yount, Reggie Jackson, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Eddie Murray, and Steve Carlton on the roster there was plenty of superstar talent to spread around, but what was lacking in 1980 was superstar statistics.

I tabulated team points for each season based upon the All Star’s FBHOF Score, and further delineated each team into Catchers, Infielders, Outfielders, Starting Pitchers, and Relief Pitchers.   For the 1980 team only catchers scored above average, and just barely, with a ranking of 13th out of 28 teams.  The balance ranked between 18th and 24th, with an overall ranking of just 26th.

Among batters, first basemen Cecil Cooper scored the most points (14.5) by batting .352 with 96 R, 25 HR, 122 RBI, and 17 SB.  This was good, but by no means great even when considering the low offensive era of the early 1980’s.  Schmidt and Brett scored over 14 themselves but infielders Willie Randolph and Alan Trammel were black holes totaling just 16 points between them.

Perhaps the lone bright spot was a gem of season by Steve Carlton who won 24 games, struck out 286 batters, and held his ERA under 2.50.  #2 starter Mike Norris had his career year as well (22 W, 1.05 WHIP, 2.53 ERA, 180 K) scoring 13.2 points.

The Philadelphia Phillies took home the World Series title in 1980, besting the Kansas City Royals in 6 games.  FBHOF’ers Schmidt and Carlton were the Phillies representatives to this All Star team.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 13th
IF: 18th
OF: 24th
SP: 24th
RP: 20th
Overall: 26th

Year: 1981
First Time All Stars: 11.  It is just the second year where there was an all star game, so we’ll not list all 11.
3 Time All Stars: N/A
5 Time All Stars: N/A
10 Time All Stars: N/A
Future FBHOF’ers: 7 – Carlton, Andre Dawson, Henderson, Murray, Tim Raines, Schmidt, Yount, Fernando Valenzuela
Snubs: Tony Armas (2nd time, 10.7), George Hendrick (11.1), Carney Lansford (11.2), Gary Mathews (10.7), Mario Soto (8.8)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Schmidt (18.8)

This was a great team, though a caveat needs to be made since it was a strike season.  Is it likely that Schmidt would have finished with 18.8 FBHOF Points given another 60 games to work with?  No probably not, and the same can be said for any player enjoying a great 1st half – the odds of a hot start continuing diminish each day as season progresses.  At the same time though, I am sure many a great 2nd half never saw the light of day which could be argued held scoring down, at least in some instances.

The key to the 1981 squad was its outfield, a truly superb group of starting five, three of which were future FBHOF’ers.  In addition, Dwight Evans, George Foster, and Tom Paciorek were all excellent and provided enough points to rank this outfield first overall thanks to an average score of 14.3, best of all time among not just outfielders, but any positional grouping.

In the infield, Schmidt’s historic season made up for mediocre (by All Star standards) years from middle infielders Robin Yount and Dave Concepcion.  Starting pitching was a bit top heavy though Fernando Valenzuela and Carlton made a formidable #1 and #2.

Rollie Fingers led a dominant relief corps, enjoying one of the few double digit seasons recorded by a reliever.  The 1981 team ranks 5th overall, a vast improvement from their predecessors.

Only 1 player, future FBHOF’er Fernando Venezuela, came from the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.  Valenzuela, a 20 year old rookie won 13 of 25 starts and led the league in strikeouts, Innings, Shutouts, and Complete Games.  For fantasy purposes, his 1.05 WHIP was 2nd in the league.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 23rd
IF: 16th
OF: 1st
SP: 15th
RP: 3rd
Overall: 5th

Year: 1982
First Time All Stars: 10 – Joaquin Andujar, Bill Caudill, Damaso Garcia, Hal McRae, Greg Minton, Joe Niekro, Lance Parrish, Dan Quisenberry, Cal Ripken, Lonnie Smith, Mario Soto,
3 Time All Stars: 6 – Carlton, Cooper, Gary Carter, Henderson, Murray, Yount.
5 Time All Stars: N/A
10 Time All Stars: N/A
Future FBHOF’ers: Carlton, Dawson, Henderson, Paul Molitor, Dale Murphy, Murray, Cal Ripken, Yount, Valenzuela.
Snubs: Bill Buckner (10.9), Pedro Guerrero (11.8) Al Oliver (11.9)
16 Pt Season: 1 – Yount

Two aspects of this team stand out – the starting pitching was very strong and the outfield was deep, perhaps too deep.  Here we find the first instance where all 6 starting pitchers scored 10 or more points, a feat matched only 5 other times.  They rank just 9th since Steve Carlton was the only elite pitcher during the year, but Rogers and Soto more then held their own, combining for a 33 wins and an ERA of 2.63.

Al Oliver and Guerrero combined for 23.7 points giving them the dubious record for the best jilted players in a single season.  Very little separated these two from most of the other outfield crew – Lonnie Smith, Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, and Hal McRae averaged 12.2 points to the snubs 11.9.  This wasn’t a positive though, collectively the All Star outfielders rank 23rd mostly due to a lack of a dominant season.

The best season of the year belonged to the shortstop, Robin Yount, who was appearing on his 3rd consecutive All-Star team.  Yount was an all around stud in 1982 – .331 AVG, 129 R, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 14 SB.  Damaso Garcia and future FBHOF’er Cal Ripken made their All-Star debuts with relatively low scores to round out he middle infielders.  FBHOF’ers Paul Molitor and Dale Murphy also made their first All Star appearances in 1982.

Joaquin Andujar (15 W, 2.47 ERA) and Smith were the two elections from the St. Louis Cardinals, who bested the American League’s Milwaukee Brewers 4 games to 3 in the World Classic.

Positional Ranking Among the 28 Teams
C: 8th
IF: 19th
OF: 23rd
SP: 9th
RP: 4th
Overall: 12th

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

Let the roasting begin!  By my calculations not one closer in the history of baseball, let alone the fantasy era, is worthy of induction to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

…..Pausing to avoid the onslaught of flying rotten fruits and vegetables…..

I know, you mock only because you care.  Closers simply don’t bring enough to the table due to their limited number of innings pitched.  Consider the point totals of the top 25:

Those are ugly.  The batters get elected with 65 points, and the starting pitchers have to reach 52.  Not one closer has ever reach 36.  The #1 ranked closer, Dennis Eckersley, ranks just 212th among all positions.  The most impressive peak score belongs to Dan Quisenberry, but this is just 243rd best.  Quite simply, Closers only contribute significantly in a single category and therefore do not have a huge impact on a fantasy team since their low innings pitched totals hinder scoring in WHIP, ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts.

I previously argued that starting pitchers should be cut a break since they are not allowed to contribute in five categories since as saves reserved only for relievers.  I stand by this thought process, and argue the difference with closers is fundamental – they are allowed to contribute in all categories, but pitch too few innings to make an impact in all five.  It’s an argument between “incapable” and “not enough playing time”.

Further, consider the following:

- Our own Razzball ‘perts routinely preach the practice of trading away the best closers.
- Most owners consider them a necessary evil.  You land A-Rod at a good price, or in the 1st round, and rejoice.  Or Peavy falls to round 2 and you feel your staff is well on its way.  But when you grab Joe Nathan in Round 3 all you can think about is scrounging around for 2 more decent closers to round out your relief corp.  Without 2 more good ones, you might as well have not drafted any.
- Punting a category is a fairly common practice where an owner decides to save money (or early draft picks) by avoiding high priced closers, and spending the savings elsewhere to create a powerhouse offense or starting rotation.  97% of the time, I looked it up, owners punt saves.  How critical can they be?

Finally, and I openly admit it may be a blind spot to this old greenhorn’s way of thinking, but real Fantasy Baseball is Rotisserie style and not this fly by night, get lucky one week and unlucky the next, head-to-head junk that is so damn popular nowadays.  (Can you hear my next line …When I was a kid we used to have to wait for the Sunday paper in order to get all of the weekly box scores from around the league so the commissioner could compile scores manually using an abacus.)  I say this because a closer’s value does change a bit depending upon league style, and one can truly take advantage of an extra $45 dollars in a roto-league, but less so in head-to-head versions.

Having said all this, in recognition that necessary evils are still necessary, Closers do have a place at the FBHOF, just one without plaques.  Some shine for the Top 5 all time:

1) Dennis Eckersley
In 1990 “Eck” posted an identical ERA and WHIP of 0.61, one of the more remarkable feats over the course of baseball history.  In 73 innings his K/BB ratio was a mind blowing 73:4 and one could argue it was the most dominant stretch of innings ever.  I got to thinking how rare it is to have identical ERA/WHIP scores and did some investigation.

Using 50 innings pitched as the barometer, only 7 pitchers have been able to record an ERA equal to or lower than their WHIP:

Bob Veale was lucky more than anything else.  Giving up 59 hits and 40 walks over the course of 78 or so innings is not exactly impressive as his 1.27 WHIP indicates.  We can safely assume Eckersley had a better season than him.  Up next are Earl Hamilton and Chris Hammond, both of whom are the same boat as Veale, though to a lesser extent.  A 1.11 WHIP is good of course, but not remarkable, and they too overshot their expected ERA’s.

This brings us to Dennys Reyes, Rob Murphy, and Nick Maddox who all kept their WHIP scores under 1.00, a mark of a great season.  The first item to note is Eckersley pitched in approximately 35% more innings than each of them and should be rewarded for his continued greatness over a larger body of work.  Second, you’ll notice Reyes, Murphy, and Maddox combined to record 1 save versus Eckersley’s 48.  I don’t have the means to calculate win expectancy tables, but I can safely say Eckersley also pitched in more difficult and stressful game situations, another mark in his favor.

Finally, and the most obvious, there is an ocean of difference between a 0.61 ERA/WHIP and a 0.83 WHIP/ERA.  Again using the 50 IP barometer, there have been two instances in baseball history where a pitcher recorded a WHIP under 0.65 (Eckersley’s done it twice of course).  In contrast, there has been a whopping 52 instances of 0.85 or better proving he’s in a class all unto himself.  I declare, as many before me done as well, that nobody has ever been as dominant as 1990 Dennis Eckersley.

Oh, his 5 year peak Fantasy Line was 81 IP, 5 W, 0.84 WHIP, 2.14 ERA, 84 K, with 38 saves.  He also had six seasons with 5+ FBHOF points.

2) Dan Quisenberry
Quiz holds the 3rd best single season FBHOF score among closers with 9.8 FBHOF points in 1983.  He’s also the only person to record two seasons of 8 or more points which gives him the best two year run in closer history (17.8 points between 82’ and 83).  His peak score is slightly better than Eckersley (33.3 to 32.4) but is ranked below him due to his relatively short career.  Eckersley benefits from his years as a starter and comes in with 15 total Fantasy Worthy seasons, a considerable 9 more than Quisenberry.  Even when narrowing down to only loser eligible seasons, Eck comes out on top 10 to 6 which pushes him into the overall lead in FBHOF points.

Quisenberry’s peak average line:  132 IP, 8 W, 1.08 ERA, 2.51 WHIP, 45 K, 39 Saves.  His high number of innings causes his ERA and WHIP have a relatively large impact when compared to today’s closers who frequently fail to reach 80.

3) Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman is the only one of our closers to finish in the Top-3 five times.  His best was an 8.2 point season in 1996:  88 IP, 9 W, 0.92 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 111 K, 42 Saves.  He’s had nine seasons of at least 40 saves and has never recorded fewer than 20 (or fewer than 30 if you prefer take out the 1994 strike year).

4) Mariano Rivera
Rivera is widely considered the best closer in baseball history so why does he ‘only’ rank 4th in fantasy history?  First, no one would really argue he was better than Eckersley when only looking at their best 5 years, but just as important, Rivera was not a dominant strike out pitcher like Hoffman who averaged an 11.2 K/9 ratio to Rivera’s 8.3; nor did Rivera pitch as many innings as the closers of the early 1980’s, only 57% of Quisenberry’s for instance.

Rivera does have an extremely high number of saves though, his peak average:  47 Saves, 0.98 WHIP, 1.88 ERA, 76 IP, 70 K.

5) Goose Gossage
Had we considered the 1970s Gossage may have ranked as high as #2 on this list.  He lost eight seasons to the decade, 4 of which were great, and two of these elite (212 and 245 ERA+ scores in 1975 and 1977).  Still, Gossage had 5 excellent seasons to start the 1980’s before ultimately hitting a wall in 1986.

His highest scoring season was 1983:  87 IP, 13 W, 1.23 WHIP, 2.27 ERA, 90 K, 22 Saves but his most dominant season was 1981:  47 IP, 3 W, 0.77 WHIP, 0.77 ERA, 48 K, 20 Saves

Where does this leave the Eric Gagne’s and Joe Nathan’s of the world?  And why no Lee Smith or Robb Nen?

Gagne was awesome and no closer has recorded more points over a three year span, but that’s as far as his greatness lasted.  He was the best of the best from 2002 to 2004 but for the rest of his career has injured or merely average.

With just a four season body of work as a closer Nathan is out of the Top-5 for now, though that may change a the end of this year.  Robb Nen was elite for 1 year, very good in another, but not a true standout in his 3rd through 5th best seasons and thus falls just short.  Finally, Lee Smith is the epitome of the “compiler” label when used in a derogatory context.  His ERA and WHIP scores were routinely above 1.20 and 3.00 respectively, but if you want consistent saves (and only consistent saves) he was your man – ten seasons of 30+, though just 3 of 40+.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

In a continuation from last week, Part II of the starting pitcher class is enshrined today.

I have a confession to make – chick’s may dig the long ball, but I dig a sub-2.00 ERA.  I have always been a sucker for starting pitching and would take 1994 Greg Maddux over 2001 Barry Bonds every day of the week.  I weep openly when reviewing the 1906 Chicago Cubs rotation and pine for the next Walter Johnson.  An elite starter is the most potent weapon a team can field as he alone has the singular ability to render every other player at the park virtually meaningless.  It didn’t matter who Bob Gibson or Randy Johnson faced when they were at their best because making contact was a fruitless exercise.

Five starting pitchers are to be enshrined today, four of which are immortals that separated themselves from the rest of baseball like no quartet has done before.  Randy Johnson, Gregg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez are all first ballot Hall of Famers when considering skill and skill alone.  They are elite Fantasy Hall of Famers as well.  No players, at any position, improved their team’s chances at winning more than these four.

But first we pay our respects to #5 all time, Curt Schilling, a starter who battled himself and injuries for 9 years before becoming a fantasy star.  Schilling’s best season came as a 35 year old with the Diamondbacks in 2002.  He won 23 games, held his WHIP down to 0.97, and struck out a whopping 316 batters.  The year before he won 22 with a 1.08 WHIP and had 293 strikeouts.  In 1997 and 1998 he also struck out an extreme number of batters, giving him three 300+ strikeout seasons.  Since 1990 Schilling is one of just three pitchers to strike out this many; has the second most such season seasons since 1980; and third most since the deadball era ended.  Yet, Schilling never finished any season as the best fantasy pitcher, with good reason though – his competition was fierce.

The Top 25-Fantasy Pitchers:

Schilling was superb, scoring over 72 points while contributing in just 4 categories, but had no where near the impact of the “Big Four”.  Martinez, ranked 4th, scores full 17% better than Schilling, who himself scores 15% better than Kevin Brown.

Holding fantasy value aside for the moment, one can make a convincing argument that no pitcher in the history of the game was more dominant over a two year stretch than Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000, the latter year being the single greatest pitching performance in the history of the sport in my opinion.

I think we are all now familiar with Baseball-Reference.com at this point, and likely all familiar with ERA+, but in case you are not, ERA+ is a statistic that shows how much better than average a pitchers ERA is, when considering ballparks (it is more difficult to pitch at the Ballpark in Arlington than it is at Shea).  Holding aside the 1800’s where the game was vastly different than it is today (9 balls, batters get to call their own pitch, etc) here is the Top 10 list of best seasonal ERA+ scores:

291 – Pedro Martinez, 2000
279 – Dutch Leonard, 1914
271 – Greg Maddux, 1994
262 – Greg Maddux, 1995
259 – Walter Johnson, 1913
258 – Bob Gibson, 1968
253 – 3-Finger Brown, 1906
243 – Pedro Martinez, 1999
242 – Walter Johnson, 1912

As impressive as it is to have an era 191% better than league average, it is probably more impressive to be this much better than the next best.  Further, in 2000, Martinez had an unheard of WHIP of 0.74.  That figure is so good it’s unjust, perhaps even Wiffle Ball good, and is best mark all time 1800’s be damned.

Martinez had more to his career than 2000 of course.  He also finished first among pitchers in 1999 and recorded 4 other Top-5 seasons, giving him a stellar record of performance during his peak:  19 W, 0.92 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, 278 K during his best 5 years.

It’s odd thinking about this now, and it isn’t just a reaction to the recent criticism Roger Clemens has brought upon himself, but somehow the greatest pitcher likely since the 1930’s has gone underrated.  Make no mistake, Clemens was awesome over a period of almost 20 years.  In 1986, his third year in the bigs, and in his first season as a full time starter, the Rocket won 24 games, struck out 238 batters (in 254 innings), recorded a WHIP of 0.97 and an ERA of 2.48.  In his 22nd season as a major league starter, Clemens came through a 1.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in just over 211 innings of work.  In between he won 17+ games eleven times; had ERA’s well below league average thirteen times; and struck out 185+ batters 14 times.

As a fantasy player Clemens was at his best in 1997 when tossing for the Blue Jays:  21 W, 1.03 WHIP, 2.05 ERA, 292 K’s and the #1 pitcher ranking in the game, a feat he achieved on three earlier occasions as well in 1987, 1990 and 1991.  His 5 year peak average looks like this:  21 W, 1.06 WHIP, 2.56 ERA, 260K with finishes of 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

What separates Clemens from Greg Maddux for fantasy purposes is an utterly dominant season.  At his best, Clemens scored 16.2 FBHOF points.  Maddux finished both his 1994 and 1995 seasons with more points, and more points by far.  In 1994, a strike year of course, Maddux won 16 games mostly because of his off the chart rate stats – 0.90 WHIP and 1.56 ERA.  He also struck out 156 batters, which seems low, but is quite good when considering he lost as many as 10 starts, perhaps 60-65 total K’s.  This line of thinking is instructive – prorating for the whole season his stat line becomes:  22 W, 0.90 WHIP, 1.56 ERA, 221 K which just happens to be the single most dominating performance in fantasy history – 18.8 FBHOF points.

The following year he bested Clemens top performance again, this time with 17 points due to a 0.81 WHIP and 1.63 ERA.  In all Maddux has four #1 finishes to his name and his peak 5 year average is masterful:  18 W, 0.96 WHIP, 2.03 ERA, 183 K.

Finally, we end with Randy Johnson, of whom it can be argued, for fantasy anyway, was Clemens and Maddux rolled into one.  Clemens was amazing for his longevity – 12 seasons of 8+ FBHOF points.  Maddux scored so high due to his tantalizing rate stats – eight seasons with a WHIP under 1.10 and seven with ERA’s under 2.65.  Johnson himself is just shy of Clemens with eleven “Hall of Fame” worthy seasons and does indeed match Maddux for incredible ERA’s and falls just one short on WHIP side of the ledger.

Remembering that pitchers can score in just four categories we also need to bring up Johnson’s record of six seasons scoring 16+ FBHOF points.  How good is this?  In 2000 Johnson had 19 W, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, a 2.64 ERA and it basically doesn’t count towards his Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame credentials since it wasn’t good enough to count as part of his 5 year peak.

Further, Johnson struck out 300 or more batters twice as much Schilling and all told bested the 290 mark another nine times. Nine! What do you get when you combine the power of Schilling with the finesse of Maddux, and then mix in the sustained greatness of Clemens?  You get the best Fantasy Baseball player in history.

A chart of some key metrics for our last five inductees, because, yes, I love great pitchers:

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

Only five pitchers of the fantasy era have attained the 65 point bogey the FBHOF uses as the baseline for batter inductions.  The reason for this is simple – the best pitchers contribute in just four categories while the best batters contribute in five.  The question then becomes – is it fair to hold this against those players who make their living 60 ft 6 inches from the batter?

I don’t have a great answer.  One on hand I routinely thought back to the class of Catchers while formulating the pitcher induction process.  This class as you will recall enshrined just one lone inductee, Mike Piazza.  I tried to justify this way of thinking for use on the pitchers, if it’s acceptable to have one catcher, is it not also acceptable to have a relative few pitchers?  On the other hand, a catcher has the potential to contribute in each of five categories but usually do not since the position is so specialized and demanding.  A starting pitcher however, can not accumulate saves due to the manner in which he used by the team – it’s not for a lack of ability on his part, they simply aren’t used in that fashion.

As a result, I decided the 65 point mark needs to be reduced and basic math skills make this a straightforward matter.  A batter must accumulate, on average, 13 points in each of the 5 offensive categories to reach 65.  A pitcher therefore, should need to accumulate 52 points (13 x 4 = 52) to be considered for the FBHOF.

Still, some issues arise for which I have no great answer.  For example, the best pitcher of the fantasy era, Randy Johnson, easily has the best FBHOF score and best Peak Score ever, even when adding batters to the mix.  While contributing in just 4 categories, Johnson outperforms Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, etc.  That is impressive.  Almost as impressive is that three of the top four peak scores belong to pitchers as well, with Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux coming in at 3rd and 4th.  Is it then fair to reduce the pitching overall requirements if pitchers have the 3 of the best 4 peak scores of all time?

In the end I think Johnson, Martinez, and Maddux were the exceptions that proved the rule.  Only a handful of starting pitchers over the past 28 years have been good enough hang with the batters and we therefore need to adjust.  By moving the minimum score down to 52, eight more starters are enshrined to give us a total of 13.

Since there are so many pitchers we’ll break the inductions out into two articles.  Today we’ll look at the 13th through 6th best fantasy pitchers of all time, saving the elite five for next week.

David Cone
One thing we are to find is only the rarest of pitchers don’t have significant flaws when looking at the five year peak.  Take our ‘worst’ pitching Fantasy baseball Hall of Famer as an example. Cone was very good for a long time, but never great.  He was never the best overall pitcher in any one season, nor was he ever the 2nd best.  He did achieve 3rd twice, but on average, his rank was 4.8 in his five year peak.

What Cone has over his peers is the fact that he was very good for a long time (by pitcher standards anyways) as only 5 other pitchers have more “7 point FBHOF” seasons than Cone does.  Yet Cone’s best season is ranked just 69th best of the Fantasy Era.

Bret Saberhagen
Without his hallmark season of 1989 Saberhagen likely falls just short of FBHOF requirements.  “Sabe’s” easily won the Cy Young award this year garnering 27 of 28 possible first place votes.  It was warranted too.  With a line of 23 W, 0.96 WHIP, 2.16 ERA, and 193 K’s he led the league in all but strikeouts.  He was also great in 1994 (2.74 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) but, like Cone before him, never had the 3rd elite fantasy season, even ranking a fairly low  20th best in his 5th best season.  And if 20th doesn’t sound that bad, realize that it’s also 89th overall when considering all positions.

Fernando Valenzuela
Raise your hand if you remembered Valenzuela’s fantasy worthy season in 1996.  Mine is down, and I surmise most of yours are too.  We all know how good the man was in 1981 and 1982 (2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP if you forgot) but what strikes me the most interesting was his ‘96 season of 172 IP and 3.62 ERA.  It only fractionally helps his FBHOF case, but I had thought he was done in the late 1980’s.  Overall, Valenzuela has four Top-5 seasons to his credit with a fifth season ranked 12th before he faded into mediocrity.

Dwight Gooden
Gooden’s rookie campaign in 1984 (17 W, 1.07 WHIP, 2.60 ERA, 276 K) promised one of the brightest futures in memory.  One year later the assurance of greatness was all but guaranteed as the 20-year old New York Met pitched through the second most excellent fantasy season of all time.  “Doc” led all starters in Wins, ERA, and Strikeouts and placed a close second in WHIP behind John Tudor, who was having a career year of his own.  This gave Gooden back to back titles for fantasy pitcher of the year and a two year FBHOF point total of 32, a mark bested by only a select few.

Gooden was still Top-10 Quality the following year when 17 Wins, a 2.84 ERA, and 200 K’s placed him 8th among pitchers.  His dominance was diminishing though.  The graph below charts Gooden’s K/9 rate throughout his career and while it was perennially very good, there was also a world of difference between his rate of 11.4 in 1984 and 7.2 two years later.

Still among the better class of pitchers for the remainder of his 5 year peak, Gooden turned in 3 more Top-25 quality seasons, amassing 61 wins and 647 K’s between 1987 and 1990.

Steve Carlton
Carlton’s FBHOF case is likely the most interesting one we’re to come across.  His career started in 1965, eliminating a full 15 years of his career due to the 1980 cutoff.  During these 15 years, the real life HOF’er racked up 225 wins and over 2600 strikeouts, all of which have no bearing on enshrinement here.  Further, his fantasy career was effectively over in just his 6th year and worse, Carlton’s career as a top-40 pitcher lasted only 4 seasons.  He makes the grade because he made the most of these four seasons between 1980 and 1984.

In ‘80 and ‘82 he was the best fantasy pitcher on the planet – averaging 24 Wins, 286 K, with a 1.12 WHIP and 2.72 ERA.  In 1981 he finished 2nd among pitchers and his three year peak score totaled 45.7 points, 5th highest on record.

Carlton was still very good in 1983 – 7th best thanks to 15 Wins and 275 K’s, but was woefully close to average in 1984, which is all to understandable given the fact he was 39 years of age.  His career was over 3 years later and was a non-fantasy impact from 1985-1987, but for the early part of the 1980’s Carlton left his mark on fantasy baseball as one of the inner circle elite.

John Smoltz
The lifetime Atlanta Brave has had two careers with the organization.  The first was as a starter from 1988 through early June of 2001 and then again between the years of 2005 and 2007.  During this time Smoltz pitched like a Hall of Famer, frequently finishing among the best pitchers in the game (he has ten Top-15 seasons) and ended 1996 as the best pitcher in fantasy baseball.  Between these periods he became one of the best closers in the game as well, compiling 154 saves, with a 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

The saves end up not mattering all that much however, as his value to fantasy owners was almost entirely as a starting pitcher.  His best year as a closer came in 2002 when he reached the 55 save mark, yet this resulted in just 4.7 FBHOF points, just the 12th best season of his career.

This brings us to his FBHOF achievements.  Smoltz’s five year peak score of 52.4 hails from a lone stellar season (1996) and 4 other very good ones (1992, 1997, 2006, and 2007).  Incredibly, this gives Smoltz quite a long tenure as a high end fantasy pitcher, with 15 years between his ‘great’ seasons.

Johan Santana
Santana hasn’t had five full seasons in the majors yet is already ranked in the top half of the best pitchers of the fantasy era.  Sooner, rather than later, he will no doubt eventually move up to claim a top-5 position all to himself.

Interestingly enough, despite three great seasons from 2004-2006, Santana attained the #1 pitcher ranking just once in 2006.  During the three years, he averaged 18 Wins, 249 K’s, a 0.96 WHIP, and 2.75 ERA but in 2004 was out shown by Rand Johnson and the following season, Chris Carpenter bested him too.  This is by no means a fault of Santana’s, as after all, he was pitching in the Hitters League at the time.

Kevin Brown
Kevin Brown had some fantastic seasons that slipped my mind (likely after his dismal ALCS appearance with the Yankees in 2004) and frankly his name rarely enters a discussion when naming the great pitchers we’ve been blessed with over the past 15 years.  In truth, only Pedro Martinez was a better fantasy pitcher during Browns peak years of 1996-2000, and Martinez is a 1st ballot Hall of Famer most often compared to the immortal Sandy Koufax.

1988 was Brown’s best season.  He struck out 257 batters in the same number of innings, won 18 games, and recorded a 2.38 ERA.  This provided him with 13.9 FBHOF points, 29th best all time.  In 1996 his rate stats were off the charts (0.94 WHIP, 1.89 ERA) but struck out just 159 batters in 233 innings, holding down his fantasy value considerably.  Most important to his FBHOF resume are his two other seasons where he achieved the oft sought 10 point season:  1999 (18 W, 1.07 WHIP, 221 K) and 2000 (0.99 WHIP,  2.58 ERA).  This is important because it marks Brown as is the first pitcher we have seen with four double digit FBHOF seasons plus a very good 5th best.

Next week we finish the starting pitchers with the Elite Five, the few that could have been inducted even if we left the requirements at 65 points.  For now, a summary of the peak scoring of today’s honorees:

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

The catchers are enshrined today, a position that is the weakest in the history of fantasy baseball.

I have dreaded writing this article for about six weeks now.  By my methodology only one catcher since 1980 deserves induction into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame and I haven’t been able to convince myself I am being too harsh.  If we went position by position we find the following number of inductees:

15 – Outfield
6 – First Base
3 – Second Base
3 – Third Base
2 – Shortstop
1 – Catcher

This actually makes a bit of sense.  Outfielders take 5 of 14 offensive roster slots in standard leagues, and as we have seen first basemen have perennially been the power house position.  Further, if only two shortstops are worthy of enshrinement, maybe one catcher is too.

And isn’t this what fantasy baseball is mostly about?  The debate on positional scarcity is still around, and for those not familiar with it, it basically states that owners should put a premium on good players at weak positions.  I agree to a degree, but still would never draft a catcher first, no matter how much better he is than his peers.  In truth, whenever there are weak positions drafted first (See Hanley Ramirez, circa 2008) it’s almost entirely because their statistics back it up.  Ramirez could hit 35 HR and steal 60 bases while batting .300.  That’s elite for a shortstop, first basemen, or outfielder.

This same phenomenon was seen with catchers.  A few years ago the trend seemed to move towards drafting catchers early – Joe Mauer and Brian McCann were sometimes taken in Round 2. While this may have worked for a single season, in terms of career value, it’s a bust. McCann was ranked 89th last year, Mauer 107th.  Catcher is a demanding position, and while there have certainly been instances of greatness over the course of a single season, and perhaps greatness enough to demand a spot high draft pick – the excellence required for FBHOF induction just hasn’t proved sustainable at the catcher position.

To be clear on my methodology, I do take positional scarcity into consideration.  Each FBHOF score is calculated by first looking at the player among the entire batting pool (or pitcher pool) and then only against a player peers who were eligible at the same position.  The two scores are then weighted – 60% for the straight score and the remaining a product of the positional score.  This is nothing to sneeze at, as 40% of the players score is solely a function of how good he is at a position.

With this out of the way, we are still left searching for recurring brilliance.  You likely already realize that Mike Piazza is the lone inductee.  And why is this?  Because his batting line reads like that of any other inducted player.  His FBHOF points by year are 15.2, 12.6, 11.5, 11.4, 10.8 giving him 61.4 peak score.  This is 27th best among batters and ahead of three fellow Hall of Famer’s – Cal Ripken, Craig Biggio, and Frank Thomas.

We’ll get back to Piazza’s accomplishments in a moment. First, I wanted to finish the answer as to why only one catcher.  Before I answer, ask yourself the following question – does a player have to have five great seasons to be considered for the Hall of Fame?  My answer is a resounding yes.  Five years in awfully short period of time, and no Baseball Hall of Famer is ever inducted based upon such a short career.  If we are focusing on such a short time at the FBHOF, those years had better be great.  From what we have seen since we started inductions in late April, not one inductee has had less than five great seasons.  With that said, here are the 5th best seasons for each of the Top 5 Catchers (as determined by FBHOF score):

This illustrates two things to me.  First, Piazza was really, really good if that was his 5th best season.  Second, the rest of those scores don’t impress me all that much (though keep in mind 1981 was a shortened season).  Over the past 20 years there most certainly have been numerous ‘Hall of Fame seasons’, but not careers:

In 1985 Carlton Fisk hit 37 home runs, driving in 107 runners and scoring 85 himself.  He even stole 17 bases.  But he batted .238 and averaged just 74 R and 71 RBI in his next three best years.

We all have love Darren Daulton’s 1992 season right?  .270 AVG, 80 R, 27 HR, 109 RBI, and 11 SB in low offense year, marks good enough for 7th overall.  But you could hardly consider the rest of his career fantasy worthy – an average of 63 R, 70 RB, and a .265 BA over his remaining 4 best years.

Javy Lopez sure was impressive in 1998 and 2003-2004, hitting 100 HR and 301 RBI while maintaining a .310 batting average.  But he was ranked just 84th and 85th in years four and five.

One more for you – Jorge Posada.  He’s likely going to the Baseball Hall of Fame at this rate but outside of last season his average for his “next best 4 years” is .275 / 80 / 25 / 94 / 2, with a rank 52nd overall and 4th among catchers.  Do I want him on my fantasy team?  Yes, of course.  Is he going to make or break my season?  No, and he therefore passes the red face test as to whether or not he’s HOF worthy.

Finally, the case of Piazza proves that it is possible to make the FBHOF as a catcher.  Love him or loathe him, he could hit with the best of them.   His 5 best years:

What truly separates Piazza from his catcher brethren, and every other baseball player of the fantasy era for that matter, is the fact he had more seasons ranked number 1 at his position than any other.   From 1993 to 2002 he finished 1st at catcher nine times – more than Alex Rodriguez (8), Albert Pujols (6), Paul Molitor (5), Ryne Sandberg (5), Cal Ripken (4), or Barry Bonds (3).  This is an incredible accomplishment.

Note:  Earlier I mentioned positional scarcity score.  Thought it might be interesting to list the top 5 seasons at each position based solely on positional scarcity: