Fantasy Baseball Advice

Head-to-Head, or H2H if you’re into abbreviations that look like R&B groups, doesn’t change a lot from our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  There are 300 billion suns in the Milky Way galaxy.  There are 100s of billions of galaxies in the universe.  There are at least 256,000 planets exactly like Earth.  Yet, there’s one Albert Pujols.  He’s still number one.  (Though Palbert Ujols on Planet Crimea is pretty good too.)  The strategy to play H2H changes.  You aren’t hoping Dunn hits 40 homers by October, but whether or not he’ll hit two homers on Sunday or if you should sit him to try and win steals.  It’s all about the match-ups, ya’ll!  So you want to build a team that can match up well with any other team.  (FYI, I’ve gone over this stuff before, but some might need a pine tree refresher hung from their rear view.)  Anyway, let’s look at some Head-to-Head fantasy baseball draft strategy:

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on the DL and that’s fine because then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as a player nurses his hammy day-to-day.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida Kahlo used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

The other day I went over my fantasy baseball strategy for snake drafts.  Lots of you know my auction tips already, but some of you just joining us — hey, close the door behind you! — may not.  Lots of the strategy for my snake drafts also applies here.  If you ask me — and you kinda did ask me by reading this shizz — auction drafts are where it’s at, yo!  You get in a room with your best fantasy baseball buddies.  The guys you haven’t seen since last year’s draft.  The guys you don’t want to see until next year’s draft.  A few guys you actively despise.  One guy, and there’s always one, has his phone on vibrate just in case the missus calls about Petey, their sick Schnauzer.  Then you have the guy who will go the extra dollar for (fill-in favorite player from his favorite team).  You know he’s his favorite player because he’s wearing his jersey.  You have the guy who brings only Cheetos and turns everything he touches orange, and, if he touches something that was already orange, he makes it oranger.  Finally, you have the guy who made plans at 5PM and begins to yell at everyone at 4PM that they’re taking too long.  And, it always turns out, this day is the best day of the year.  Auction draft day is better than your wedding day.  As for online auction drafts, they’re just a’ight.  Anyway, here’s some tried and true tips to help you through your auction fantasy baseball draft:

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Carlos Gonzalez is overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want J.J. Putz and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $6 and the bidding’s just gone to $7, go to $8 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Arencibia, Iannetta, Putz, Nathan or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $10 on Espinosa and you get him for $11, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Espinosa after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get Raburn, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

For most of you, been there, read this shizz already, but there’s Razzball newbies (Razzbabies?) that need some coddling occasionally.  If you know PEDS, skip ahead into the comments and discuss my mustache.  So, there’s a BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) Drafting Strategy by Rudy “The Fro Knows” Gamble.  He’s also touched upon some fantasy baseball drafting tips.  Go read it.   It will make you smart.  There’s also a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler.  There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around and the hiccups.  There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy.  There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged.  And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy.  I love when my leaguemates use that one.  Then there’s my draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.

PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum. No Halladay. No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d smoke a bowl with Lincecum and then tease Sandoval that we could eat whatever we wanted, but I wouldn’t draft him.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.   I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Longoria or Teixeira or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Bell, Rivera, Soria… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick! And why am I not wearing pants?! For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.   You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one. Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Ty Wigginton last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.   You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Ty Wigginton on your bench when there’s a hot hitting Josh Willingham on waivers.   Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.   Or grab a starter.  (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.   If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Danny Espinosa?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Morrow? No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Cueto or Edwin Jackson?  I’m taking Cueto.  Carlos Zambrano or James Shields?  I’m going Zambrano.  Morrow or Colby Lewis?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Morrow.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

The other day in the comments someone asked that I give some pairings for my first two rounds of the 2011 fantasy baseball drafts.  I was going to do this anyway (you’re not the boss of me!), but sometimes I need a gentle nudge in the right direction.  Not a noodge, thank you.  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I already did the pitchers pairings.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders too.  I’m not sure I’ll have the time or patience to do them though.   We’ll see!  Or not.  Your choice.  For easy reference, the royal we will be using the top 10 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2011 fantasy baseball drafts:

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would also be ideal, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get A-Rod or Zimmerman.  Youuuuuuuuk would be available in my fantasy fantasy world and have 3rd base eligibility at the start of the season, but getting Youuuuuuk might not be realistic either.  What is realistic is Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen.  Miggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Kinsler, Pedroia, Phillips or Reyes would also work.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter, you should be fine.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals.

Hanley Ramirez – You want just about anyone but a shortstop or 2nd baseman.  Ideally, you want a big bat.  I.e., not someone like Carl Crawford.  You want someone that is going to get you 30+ homers.  Howard and Fielder are gone according to my rankings, but they may not be in Yahoo, CBS or ESPN’s fantasy fantasy world.  If they’re there (stutterer!), I like them with Hanley like a fat kid likes cake.  In a best case scenario, I’d have a 1B or 3B teamed with Hanley.  An outfielder is fine, but you’re gonna be behind the eight ball filling out your infield later on.  If you can pinkie swear me you’ll grab Adam Dunn with Hanley, then take an outfielder.

Evan Longoria – Anyone but a 3rd baseman.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Tulo and Cano.)  Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Youuuuuk would also work nicely since Longoria’s average is a bit weak.  Someone like Kinsler or Phillips aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Shin-Soo isn’t a terrible guy with Longoria either.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but you can work with just about anything.

Ryan Braun – I wouldn’t draft an outfielder next.  Ideally, I’d try for a 3rd baseman, 1st baseman, 2nd baseman or a shortstop, in that order.  I wouldn’t kick Braun and Fielder or Braun and Howard out of bed, but Braun/Zimmerman looks better.

David Wright – Similar to Longoria, but with where Longoria’s potential pitfalls could be average and steals, Wright’s a potential power problem.  I’d want a power guy.  Think Wright and Howard or Fielder.  That sounds like the best pairing since my tilapia, Mad Dog 20/20 pairing last night.

Ryan Howard – Obviously if I’d take Wright and Howard, I’d also take Howard and Wright.  See how that works?  Since Howard is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy, but he’s more of an average issue so I’d be careful about guys like Kemp, Kinsler or Phillips.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed outfielder (Crawford) or a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, Upton).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, Crawford, you may only get around 40 homers combined from your first two picks while Howard can produce that by himself.

Prince Fielder – Same story as Ryan Howard, but he’s slightly less of an average issue so I’d pair him with Kemp, Kinsler or Phillips, as well.

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Chase Utley – No Kinsler or Phillips.  Similarly to Tulo, since Utley is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed outfielder (Crawford), speed shortstop (Reyes) or a power/speed outfielder (McCutchen, Upton).  He could also work with a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  Shoot, Utley works with everyone.  Love you, Utley.  Write soon!

No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues.  If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain.  There’s a cure for that, stop reading ESPN’s fantasy baseball advice.  So in 12 team fantasy baseball leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from off of waivers.  Hey, Miguel Olivo’s guest judging on RuPaul’s Drag U and he’s hitting!  What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y!  Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches! It’s ironic, if I’m using ironic correctly, and helpful for my fantasy team! Most catchers are passed around like blow at a Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake.  That, there, is reason enough to punt catcher.  There’s always available options on waivers.

The top 4 options at catcher last year were Mauer, Martinez, Posey and McCann.  There’s one waiver wire pick-up there.  After those guys, we have Buck, Napoli, Olivo, Soto and Ruiz.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Buck, Olivo and Ruiz), two guys who were drafted late in drafts (Soto and Napoli) and one of those guys I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Saltalamacchia and Arencibia ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2011, I’d say, “I told you Salty, Iannetta and Arencibia were good bargains.”  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up your little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  John Buck.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts The Midnight Cowboy until around the 18th round.  His stats last year were 53/20/66/.281.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 64/20/79/.302/1.  V-Mart gets drafted 29th overall.  The difference between the two was 11 Runs, 13 RBIs, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  Instead of V-Mart, you could draft F-Her.  Whereas instead of John Buck, you could draft Kevin Slowey.  Oh.  Okay.  Those are even.  A first baseman comparison would be instead of V-Mart, you take Adam Dunn.  At Buck’s spot, you draft Gaby Sanchez.  Huge difference there, too.  A shortstop comparison would be Reyes vs. Scutaro.  Another huge difference.  At catcher, there’s hardly any difference.  You can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.