Fantasy Baseball Advice

Here’s a post that’s gonna make you wanna slap ya mama and call her Frances Fisher.  The other day I told you how to draft your pitchers for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I laid it out to you nice and simple (if you have a degree in “What The Hell Is Grey Talking About?”  Not a PhD, mind you.  Just a BS.)  Today, we forget all that jabberwocky on the who-ha and get down to business old school-style (which means if you don’t comprehend, I will hit you over the head with a baseball bat signed by Joe Clark.)  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders too.  I’m not sure I’ll have the time or patience to do them though.   We’ll see!  Or not.  Your choice.  For easy reference, the royal we will be using the top 10 2012 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone, but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would work, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get Longoria.  That leaves you with Wright.  That doesn’t sound too shabby.  Think about how for the last five years prior to 2011 and you would’ve loved to have Wright and Miggy on the same team.  I say, live in the past and do it.  But I’d say “Do it” like Ben Stiller in the Starsky & Hutch remake.  Now it’s totally not ideal to grab Wright if you think Miggy will get 3rd base eligibility.  Right now, I put it at about 85% that he will have 3rd base eligibility within a few weeks of Opening Day, so if you wanna grab an outfielder instead, I’m not hating the game or the playa (that’s not Spanish for beach).  I say grab Andrew McCutchen or Jay Bruce.  Wanna go for a 2nd baseman?  Kinsler might be there.  Swiggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Reyes or Hanley would also work, though they might not be there.  Now, the risk with not grabbing a 3rd baseman is if Miggy starts treating grounders at third like they’re empty beer cans and starts booting them.  Then you may have punted 3rd and Miggy is sent back to first before his 3rd base eligibility kicks in.  Kicks being the operative word.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter while getting some combo of power and speed, you should be fine.  For those of you who are thinking you can grab a 1st baseman and then move Miggy to 3rd two weeks in, you’re screwed if Miggy doesn’t get 3rd base eligibility, even if that possibility is only slim.  And, yes, that’s the only time Miggy and slim will ever be used in a sentence.  In summation, don’t put unnecessary risk on the table in the first two rounds.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy, obviously without the possible 3rd base eligibility caveat.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals, and no 1st baseman, catcher or starter.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but he can work with just about anything.

Jose Bautista – Hey, something other than a 1st baseman.  Yay, Joey Bats!  Anyone but a 3rd baseman would work.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Hanley and Cano.)  Also, I worry that Bautista’s average might bottom out a little (to the .265 range), so I’d avoid a guy like Kinsler or Stanton.  You don’t want to leave the 2nd round with a potential combined average of .260.  If you take Baustista and a 3rd baseman because you think Bautista can play your outfield, you’re overthinking.  Think of Bautista as a 3rd baseman.  If during the season you need to put him in the outfield because you picked up a 3rd baseman off waivers, then more power to you.  Right now you don’t put him in the outfield because then you’re only going to draft 4 outfielders and scrounge for a 3rd baseman.  Your 3rd baseman is gonna be crap and you’re gonna end up with Bautista there anyway and you’re gonna be short at outfield.  One thing you can do later on is draft a 3rd baseman at your corner infidel slot.  Then if he does well, you can move him into 3rd, Bautista into your outfield and have the flexibility to grab a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman off waivers for your corner slot.

Evan Longoria – Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Kemp might not be realistic though considering he’s been going first in some mocks.  In my fantasy fantasy world, they’d both be there though.  Same goes for Ellsbury.  I’d even pair Longoria with Pedroia since he usually gives hella at-bats and a decent average. Someone like Kinsler or Stanton aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Matt Kemp – Position-wise, he doesn’t go with many.  Stats-wise, he goes with everyone, except a pitcher.  This is probably why he’s going number one overall in mocks.  The problem with that is you draft Kemp and you have one outfielder but still need four more of those and have no infielders.  That guarantees you will leave the 2nd round missing at least two of 2nd base, 1st base or 3rd base.  In the best case scenario, you draft Kemp and Longoria or Wright, so you don’t have to worry about 3rd base.  If you get Kemp and Longoria or Wright, you’ll need to pray your Hosmer, Konerko or other 1st base pick works out.  Otherwise, it might be a long season.  Remember, Hosmer looks great right now, but if he was a sure thing, he’d be going in the first round.  If you can get Kemp and Prince Fielder, then more power to you, though that seems like a pipe dream in the mocks I’ve seen.  Kemp and Kinsler is okay, but then you have no 1st baseman or 3rd baseman and you’ll be up against teams with Miggy, Pujols, Longoria, Prince etc.  I.e., you’ll be doomed.  Kemp plus another outfielder is you throwing in the towel after the first two rounds.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am, ma’am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, McCutchen, you may only get around 35 homers combined from your first two picks while Fielder can produce that by himself.  I’d also be wary of going with CarGo.  Not because of the team thing, but more because of the injury-prone thing. I don’t love the idea of Cano and Tulo.  You’re all middle infield.  Why don’t you just go and marry Adam Everett?  Realistically, if you have to draft Tulo in the top 5 to get him, you’re gonna be looking at Wright, Beltre or Bruce at the end of the 2nd round.  I’d take any of them, but now with Bruce, you will have no corner infidels.  It’s precarious.  (Do you see why I always try to go 1st base or 3rd base in the 1st round?)

Justin Upton – Upton is similar to Kemp.  No outfielders with him.  You really should take a corner man.  Longoria’s great if he’s still there, Fielder will work wonders and clean up after himself!

Prince Fielder – I’d take Longoria with Fielder, I’d also take Fielder with Longoria.  See how that works?  Since Fielder is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes, Hanley or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy.  Kinsler?  Fine!  Wright?  Great!  Instead of gum, chew bacon!  It all works!

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Robinson Cano – No Kinsler or Pedroia.  Similarly to Tulo, since Cano is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo), a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  I’d try to avoid Reyes or Hanley.  You don’t want to have to scrounge together an outfield and two corners leaving the 2nd round.

Jacoby Ellsbury – You don’t want an outfielder.  You can take Reyes, Hanley, Pedroia or Kinsler, but then you might only have 35-40 homers after two picks and some people are getting that with one pick.  If a 1st baseman (Votto, Fielder) is there, then you just scored.  If no one is there without reaching down to David Wright, you might have yourself a Javid Wrightsbury combo player that goes 60/60.  Or you might get a player that hurts his hamstring and complains the fences are still too far, leaving you wanting Justdrian Gonzaton.  (<–And that’s how you make an already confusing post, more confusing!)

With the Razzball Commenter Leagues sign ups in full swing, we look at what last year’s RCLs showed us.  I.e., this is what it took to win these fantasy baseball leagues last year.  Across thirty-six 12 team leagues, you would think you’d have some wide variations, but it’s amazingly close what you need in each category to do average vs. win.  Some quick points upfront.  There were 5 outfielders and one utility, so if you play in a Yahoo league with three outfielders and two utility, I’d expect more offense across the board.  Not much, but some.  There was a 180 games started max for pitchers.  6.5 is average in a 12 team league, not 6 because the last place team has 1 point, not zero.  Finally, the RCLs are made up of guys that are probably more competitive than your casual fantasy baseball leaguemates, so if you can hit these benchmarks, you should be in good shape.  Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 12 team fantasy baseball league:

Runs – 997

The average team last year scored 973 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs.  To win your league, it took 1,108 runs with the average hitter contributing 85 runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 24 runs.  So 24 runs on top of 973 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs.  So I would aim for 997 runs or 77 runs/player.

Home Runs — 257

The average team hit 237 homers.  To win, you needed 294 homers or 23 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 237 or 257 homers or 20 homers/player.

RBIs — 970

The average team needed 936 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,071 or 82 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 970 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.

Steals — 176

The average team needed 162 steals.  To win, you had to get 214 or 17 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 9 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 176 steals or 14 steals/player.

Average — .267

The average team’s, uh, average is .2674.  To win, you had to get a .2806.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .267 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,305

The average team’s Ks are 1,168.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,384 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 39 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,305 Ks from my pitching staff.

Wins — 82

The average team’s pitchers won 82 games.  To win, you needed to win 99.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3 games.  (Any Astro starter is good for at least three wins.)  I go for average here, which is 82 games.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 126

The average team’s relievers closed out 91 games.  To win, you needed 146  saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed 126 saves.

ERA — 3.51

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.59 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.17 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.51 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.19

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.23 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.15 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.19 WHIP.

Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.

For these pairings, I’m going to be using our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Notably, the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2012, top 60 starters for 2012 and the top 80 starters for 2012.  Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done.  What is a pitcher pairing?  It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff.  It’s a plan of action.  If you have A pitcher, which B, C and D pitcher goes with him?  You should have six starters.  The sixth starter is Brad Peacock or take whoever you want.  I suggest an upside pick.  Brad Peacock comes to mind.  Or Mike Minor.  Mike Minor also comes to mind.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 Pitchers league.  (NOTE:  What you are about to read is massively confusing.  If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me.)  Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

TIERS

If your first pitcher is from the tiers:  “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?” and “The aces that once were.” — These tiers are from Halladay to Greinke.  There’s very little chance I have anyone in any of these tiers.  If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Gio tier that goes into the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Moore/Scherzer and one guy from the flyer tier of Sanchez.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Peacock or Minor.  So Greinke, Daniel Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Peavy and Peacock.  That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.” – This tier goes from Hamels to Lester.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Hamels and Lester with anyone in the Wim Wenders tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Hamels, I wouldn’t ignore Wim Wenders’s tier if they fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either.  You’ll be fine taking Hamels and moving right into the Gio tier.  But let’s say you start your staff with Hamels and Haren because he falls to you, you should skip right to the Moore tier.  Again, if someone from Wim Wenders’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point.  So if you have Hamels, Haren, Moore, you jump to Sanchez’s tier and grab two pitchers.  (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.)  So that leaves you with Hamels, Haren, Ubaldo, Worley, McCarthy and Brad Peacock.  That’s one great looking staff, or so says Gosh Johnson, Josh’s porn star brother.

Now if you grab Hamels, but you skip Wim Wenders’s tier and go straight to Gio’s tier, then you grab one or two guys in that tier and one or two guys from the Yummo! tier.  If you grab one from the “Crazy like a fox” tier, then grab two from the Yummo! tier and vice versa.  At this point, you should have four starters.  Then grab anyone after Sanchez then Brad Peacock.  That leaves you with a staff of Hamels, Latos, Anibal, Garza, Wandy and Peacock.  That’s probably the best staff I’ve ever seen in the entire universe.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.” — This is similar to grabbing Hamels through Lester.  Wim Wenders’s pitchers are all number one fantasy starters.  I’d go ahead and grab three starters between the “crazy like a fox” and Yummo! tiers and another one later on while saving room for Peacock.  So you’d have Weaver, Latos, Moore, Marcum, Peavy and Peacock.  You just won your league and games haven’t even started.  You’re welcome.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!” — You’re fighting an uphill battle if you haven’t grabbed a starter until this tier.  So you need to make up for that by grabbing two guys in this tier and two guys in the Moore tier then a flyer then Peacock.  For instance, Gio, Daniel Hudson, Ubaldo, Luebke, Lilly and Peacock.  Honestly, that staff looks pretty good to me; go buy yourself an ice cream cone and celebrate.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.25 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Gio Gonzalez, who I have projected for a 1.28, you need to pair him with someone I have projected below a 1.25.  Don’t pair Gio with Scherzer.  Don’t pair Gio with Morrow.  Pair Gio with Zimmermann.  Pair him with Daniel Hudson.  Pair him with Cain.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only six starters below a 1.25 WHIP.  There’s 11 pitchers in the top 80 (which is actually 29 pitchers), four of them are Johan, Baker, Peavy and Stauffer.  Three of those are injury risks and the other one you can’t start in away games.  Then there’s Kuroda, who is a Yankee risk, Lilly, who’s old, Collmenter, who only gives you a good WHIP, and Chris Sale and Daniel Bard, who could be good but are risks in their own right.  Basically, there’s McCarthy to totally trust for WHIP help in the last 29 pitchers.  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.  Always.  Even in deep leagues.

There’s not much left to do.  You’ve printed out the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings.  You’ve paid attention when I went over my fantasy baseball sleeper posts.  You even drew a mustache on your mirror so every time you look at yourself you look like me.  The only thing left for you is actually taking part in a fantasy baseball draft.  No sweat, you’ve been mock drafting for the last two months.  First few rounds fly by.  You’re cool with a capital Clooney.  Rounds 5 through 8 come and go.  Nothing to it!  You pack a bowl for yourself for your glaucoma and shotgun it into your cat’s face.  Round 9 comes and Pedro Alvarez and Aramis Ramirez are drafted right before you and now the first bead of sweat forms.  Where are all of the third basemen?

Suddenly, you’re burning up like you just chugged a bottle of Emeril’s Creole Seasoning.  Worse, you have cotton mouth and have no time to go to the sink.  Outside, it’s raining.  Then “Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink…” starts playing on loop in your head.  Over and over again like a Lady Gaga song chorus.  You look up at the draft timer and you have 30 seconds left.  You look at the reflection of yourself in your framed supposed-to-be-ironic poster that reads, “The glass is half empty, deal with it” and you begin to sob.  Not happy “I just won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar” sobs, but sad “Please let me out of your van; I don’t want my skin to be made into a suit” sobs.  With three seconds left, you draft Chris Johnson.

Immediately, everyone in the draft room begins to mock you.  Nice reach, I think Matt Stairs is still available for your corner!… Hey, I didn’t know Ed Wade’s toupee was drafting with us!…  You suck! And, with that, you open the window to your bedroom and jump out.  Luckily, you live on the first floor and only bruise your ankle.  You limp back through the house, ignore your Mom’s take-out-the-freakin’-garbage complaints, sit back down at your computer and zombie your way through the rest of the draft.  Only half paying attention because you know you screwed up the Johnson pick.

It was a reach.  You probably could’ve took Johnson a few rounds later.  But it’s not the ruination of your draft.  Reaching is a part of drafting.  If you’re not reaching for guys that you want then you might not know which guys you want.  You don’t want to reach every single round, but sometimes it’s not only appropriate but it’s necessary.  Wouldn’t you rather have a guy you want in the 9th round or a guy you don’t want in the 16th?  Draw an emoticon on your hand and learn to smile again.  It’ll be all right.