Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day I went over my fantasy baseball strategy for snake drafts.  Lots of the strategy there also applies here.  If you ask me — and you kinda did ask me by reading this shizz — auction drafts are where it’s at, yo!  You get in a room with your best fantasy baseball buddies.  The guys you haven’t seen since last year’s draft.  The guys you don’t want to see until next year’s draft.  A few guys you actively despise.  One guy, and there’s always one, has his phone on vibrate just in case the missus calls about Petey, their sick Schnauzer.  Then you have the guy who will go the extra dollar for (fill-in favorite player from his favorite team).  You know he’s his favorite player because he’s wearing his jersey.  You have the guy who brings only Cheetos and turns everything he touches orange, and, if he touches something that was already orange, he makes it oranger.  Finally, you have the guy who made plans at 5PM and begins to yell at everyone at 4PM that they’re taking too long.  And, it always turns out, this day is the best day of the year.  Auction draft day is better than your wedding day.  As for online auction drafts, they’re just a’ight.  Anyway, here’s some tried and true tips to help you through your auction fantasy baseball draft:

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Matt Capps and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $2 and the bidding’s just gone to $3, go to $4 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Dotel, Capps or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

There’s a BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) Drafting Strategy by Rudy Gamble.  Yesterday, he went over some fantasy baseball drafting hints from Heloise.  You go read it.  It will make you smart.  There’s also a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler.  There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around and the hiccups.  There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy.  There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged.  And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy.  I love when my leaguemates use that one.  Then there’s my draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum.  No Halladay.  No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I have bedsheets with Lincecum on them… Hmm… That sounds wrong.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Longoria or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Rivera, Broxton… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Josh Willingham last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Clint Barmes on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.  (Note:  This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.  If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Scott Sizemore?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Slowey?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Tim Hudson or Andy Pettitte?  I’m taking Hudson.  Billingsley or Garza?  I’m going Bills.  Slowey or Price?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Slowey.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.

While Grey and I are usually around (more Grey than me) to answer pre-draft and post-draft questions, we don’t have a solution just yet for inter-draft questions.

As we wait for the first prototype of our Razzball helmet that allows us to help call the plays for our readers, here are some tips that will allow you to call audibles like Peyton Manning. (Look slig me, Doc, I’m makin’ football analogies!)

I’m in the middle of a draft and I’m somewhat to completely set at a position BUT I can’t believe this hitter is still available.  Should I draft him and 1) Fill CI, MI, or UTIL earlier in the draft than expected  and/or 2) Draft him to set up a pre-season trade?

Generally no on #1.  Always “No” on #2.

I’ll start with the answer to #2.  NEVER draft thinking you’ll be able to trade anyone for close to face value.  Two simple reasons:  1) Everyone is in wanderlust with their team after the draft and generally overvalue most players on their roster and 2) If they valued this player nearly as much as you, then he wouldn’t have dropped as far in the draft!

For #1, I’d only do this if the player is clearly the best hitter on the board with slight consideration for position scarcity.  If you drafted Pujols in the 1st round and inexplicably Adrian Gonzalez still available in the 4th round, then sure.  But I’m pretty confident that the 2B, SS, or 3B you have your eyes on isn’t by far the best hitter out there.  I’m supremely confident if you’re eying a Catcher.  But even if they are slightly better than a player at another position, I’d draft the other guy.  Why?  Better roster flexibility throughout the draft – you ALWAYS want the best values and filling up one position and being scarce in another prevents this – and if the league is undervaluing this position early (based on your valuation), then they probably will undervalue it late in the draft too.

Same as above but it’s a pitcher.

You’re not going to get good trade value from a starting pitcher and if you’ve already got a couple of top SPs, that next one will have less incremental value for you.  You obviously value pitchers more than your league mates and will have no problem drafting 5-6 SPs you like spread out throughout the draft that’ll better maximize value and draft flexibility.

Relievers are the exception to the rule.  They are the only players that have fair trade value given their scarcity.  Nothing wrong with stocking up on saves in April/May and then trading a closer when a good deal can be had.   But I can’t see any reason to draft more than 2 closers in the first 10 rounds – even if a top closer is still hanging around by the 9th/10th.

How do I factor upside into my draft choices?

Sprinkle it in throughout the draft and take more risks later in the draft.

For those who read this blog religiously (which must suck for our Jewish readership as our content must be even more nonsensical when read right to left), you may know that Grey has a perpetual boner (RIP btw) for upside while I’m a bit more conservative.  Here’s why….

You have to realize that ‘upside’ is factored into legitimate projections (CHONE, ZiPs, PECOTA, Marcel) and that the chances of performing above these projections is about the same as performing below these projections.  So ‘upside’ is a sunny word for risk and drafting on ‘upside’ (vs. projected results which represents their ‘average’ statistical outcome) generally means you are reaching for that player.

It’s best to balance ‘upside’ players with more dependable players so you’re getting the most value out of every draft pick and minimizing risk.  I remember seeing a 2009 AL expert draft last year where someone drafted Liriano, David Price, and Chamberlain as 3 of his top 4 starters.  That was nothing more than pitcher roulette in my eyes and they obviously didn’t hit their number.

But towards the end of the draft, upside is great because the ‘dependable’ players aren’t much better than the players available on the free agent wire.  So you might as well take a shot on someone sexy in the hopes they overdeliver knowing you can fall back on a dependable player via free agency.

You play it too safe, Rudy.  Flexibility.  Manage risk.   Blech.  Screw your mutual fund approach. I want to play the stock market.  Any recommendations?

While I think maximizing draft value is the best chance of winning a league, I admire someone who’s willing to roll the dice.  Gamble is my last name.

If you want to gamble by taking a lot of young ‘upside’ picks, go ahead.  It could work but I highly doubt it.

If you think you’re great at finding pitching bargains, go right ahead and wait until the 10th round or so to draft pitchers.  Just realize that there will definitely be at least 1-2 drafters in your league already deploying that strategy which makes it tougher to win with this gambit (because of the increased competition for early hitters/late pitchers).

My gambit of choice would be to draft 2 pitchers in the 3rd-5th rounds – hopefully snagging 2 of the top 5 or 6 starters before an inevitable starting pitching run occurs.  In the next 5 rounds, get 2 premium closers and another SP.  Get at least two more closers before the end of the draft and some pitchers with solid Wins and K numbers.  The intent is to finish near the top in all 5 pitching categories.

While hitters are generally valued higher than pitchers, it is tougher to find hitter values but they are there.  I’d punt Catcher since you’re paying a premium for position scarcity and you want to focus on raw numbers to balance your pitcher-heavy draft.  I’d punt both 2B and SS until at least the double-digit rounds as there are much better values to be had later in the draft.   Throughout the draft, concentrate on everyday hitters with a likely shot of hitting 1st through 5th in the lineup – it doesn’t matter if they are on a bad team.  The reason for focusing on lineup position is that they are solid bets for 160+ Runs and RBIs.   Since power-speed players generally come at premiums,  mix and match hitters who come undervalued because they are particularly weak in a dimension – e.g., Adam Dunn (average) and Michael Bourn (power).  As the season goes on, trade closers to improve offensive numbers.

Will this strategy work?  Yeah, some of the time.  I wouldn’t recommend it over a more balanced draft but if it was a sure thing, they wouldn’t call it gambling…

For these pairings, I’m going to be using our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Notably, the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2010, top 60 starters for 2010 and the top 80 starters for 2010.  Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done.  What is a pitcher pairing?  It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff.  It’s a plan of action.  If you have A pitcher, which B, C and D pitcher goes with him?  You should have six starters.  The sixth starter is Jonathan Sanchez or take whoever you want.  I suggest an upside pick.  Jonathan Sanchez comes to mind.  Sanchez, Sanchez, Sanchez… The fifth starter will be covered below.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 Pitchers league.  (NOTE:  What you are about to read is massively confusing.  If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me.  But to add more confusion, every time I say Wandy/Bills tier, you can also include Matt Cain’s tier in there.)  Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2010 fantasy baseball drafts:

TIERS

Tim Lincecum – There’s very little chance I have Lincecum on any of my teams, but if I do have him, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until around Wandy tier of the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab two guys from the flier tier of Cueto/Buchholz.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — a total flier in the Homer Bailey tier.  So Lincecum, Billingsley, Cueto, Anderson, Bailey and Sanchez.  This is a pretty wonky staff, but Lincecum gives you that flexibility.

“F-Her vs. Greinke,” “Don’t hate them because they’ve done it many times before.” and “These guys have a legitimate chance of being on my team.” — With the pitchers from these tiers, you don’t have the same luxury of Lincecum.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come before Hamels with anyone in the Hamels tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Haren I wouldn’t ignore Hamels (or anyone in his tier) if he fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either. So you could start your staff Hamels and Haren.  Then I’d take one guy from the Bills/Wandy tier.  So Hamels, Haren and Baker, for instance.  Then I’d take one guy from the Slowey/Cueto tier.  So Haren, Hamels, Baker and Ervin, possibly.  Then I’d skip below for the fifth starter.

If you get a pitcher from above Hamels on the rankings and don’t get someone from the Hamels tier as well, I would pair that pitcher with two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier.  So you’re looking at, possibly, Haren, Cain and Baker.  Or Verlander, Wandy, Bills.  Or Johan, Bills and Baker.  If you can’t get two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier, I’d go for one and two guys from the Cueto/Buchholz flier tier.  So, something like Haren, Bills, Cueto and Anderson.  If you do get two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier, then I’d take one from the flier tier.  So you’re looking at Haren, Wandy, Cain and Cueto.  I’ll get to the fifth starter in a second.  Remember, every team needs a sixth starter — Jonathan Sanchez.

“If I don’t get a pitcher from the previous tier, I’ll need someone from this tier.” — This tier starts with Hamels.  I would team Hamels with anyone in this tier, but then I’d skip to the Slowey/Cueto tier.  You draft Hamels and Johnson?  Then skip to Slowey/Cueto.  This is like a fantasy baseball Choose Your Own Adventure.  Hamels and Nolasco?  Skip to Slowey/Cueto.  In the Slowey/Cueto tier, I’d take two.  Hamels, Nolasco, de la Rosa and Slowey, for instance.

If you only get one from the Hamels tier, then I’d take two from the Bills/Wandy tier.  So Hamels, Bills and Wandy, for instance.  I’d then take one guy from the Cueto/Slowey tier.  So, possibly, Hamels, Bills, Burnett and Slowey.  See below for the fifth starter.

“I’m on board.” – If you were able to actually follow along in the last two sections, two points for you.  Now let’s assume you don’t take any starter until the Wandy/Bills tier.  Then I’d take two starters from the Wandy tier.  So let’s say Bills and Baker.  Then I’d take one from the Cueto/Buchholz flier tier.  So you now have Bills, Baker and Anderson.  This staff is five times wonky with a side of ulcer, so to finish it off I’d take Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, Correia or Penny, or some kind of vet stability.  So you’re hopefully looking at Bills, Baker, Anderson, Hudson, fifth starter to come and Filthy Sanchez.

The Fifth Starter – Before everyone takes Jonathan Sanchez, we need a fifth starter.  My suggestion is to take someone to complement your first pick’s risk.  If you went less risky by taking someone in the top 17 of the top 20 starters, then take a flier like, say, Mat Latos.  If you didn’t take anyone in the top 20, then take someone a little safer with your fifth starter, like, Harang or Penny.  If someone — anyone! — falls in the draft and becomes a value pick, take them.  If Oswalt falls for whatever reason, take him.  If Peavy falls, take him.  If Bedard’s sitting around in the 330s, take him.  The fifth starter is your wild card.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.26 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Bills, who I have projected for a 1.32, you need to pair him with someone I have projected for below a 1.26.  Don’t pair Bills with Wandy.  Don’t pair Bills with Price.  Pair Bills with Baker.  Pair him with Oswalt.  Pair him with Cliff Lee.  If you take Ubaldo (projected 1.27 WHIP) and Bills (projected 1.32 WHIP) where are you going to balance these guys?  Slowey and Wells?  Okay, but if you don’t get them, then you might need to scramble.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only two starters below a 1.26 WHIP and one of them might be a reliever this year (Hughes) and one is Randy Wolf.  There’s four pitchers in the top 80 and one of them is out a month to start the season (Lilly), one is Jurrjens and two of them will hurt you on Ks (Wells and Buehrle).  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.

The other day in the comments someone asked that I give some pairings for my first two rounds of the 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  I was going to do this anyway (you’re not the boss of me!), but sometimes I need a gentle nudge in the right direction.  Not a noodge, thank you.  What I’m hoping to lay out to you is who do you draft 2nd if you’ve drafted so and so first.  I think it might be helpful to go through pairings for your 5 outfielders, all your middle and corner infielders and pitchers too.  We’ll go through those on another post.  For easy reference, the Royal We will be using the top 10 2010 fantasy baseball rankings and the top 20 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5, MI, CI, 5 OF, 1 Utility, 1 Catcher league.  Anyway, here’s some pairings for the first two rounds of 2010 fantasy baseball drafts:

Albert Pujols – Could really team him up with anyone, except another 1st baseman.  Preferably, I’d like to have Pujols and a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  Then on the turn you can grab an outfielder.  So Pujols, Zimmerman and Upton.  Yeah, that would be nice.

Hanley Ramirez – Again, you want just about anyone but Tulo, Reyes or Rollins.  Ideally, you want a big bat.  I.e., not Carl Crawford.  Someone that is going to get you 30+ homers.  Howard and Fielder will be gone, but A-Gon, Morneau, Zimmerman or even Votto should be there.  I’d consider J-Upside, but if I went that way I would definitely want another 30+ hitter sooner vs. later.

Chase Utley – No Kinsler or Phillips.  Since Utley is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed outfielder (Crawford), speed shorstop (Reyes, Rollins) or a power/speed outfielder (Sizemore, Upton).  He could work with a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman or even Tulo.  Shoot, Utley works with everyone.  Love you, Utley.  Write soon!

Alex Rodriguez – No 3rd basemen.  A-Rod is similar to Utley since he also gives you a decent amount of steals, you can put him with just about anyone.  Someone like Holliday would give you a nice balance.

Ryan Braun – I wouldn’t draft an outfielder next and I’d hesitate to draft a 1st baseman.  Ideally, I’d try for a shortstop (Tulo or Rollins), 2nd baseman (Kinsler, Phillips) or a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  The reason I’d hesitate on a 1st baseman is because it’s a deeper position and so is outfield, so you’d have two deep positions covered and no shallow ones.  I wouldn’t kick Braun and Votto out of bed, but Braun/Zimmerman looks better.

Mark Teixeira/Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard – Similarly to Braun, I’d avoid a 1st baseman and hesitate on an outfielder.  Ideally, you’d have some combo of one of those 1st basemen and Wright, Longoria, Kinsler or Tulo.

Matt Kemp – Since he’s not as safe with the power as Braun, I’d take a 1st baseman with Kemp.  I’d also look at taking a bat at a weaker position (Tulo, Kinsler, Wright).  I’d avoid guys who bring their value with speed (Reyes, Crawford, Ellsbury).

Evan Longoria – Anything but a 3rd baseman.  Since his speed’s a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with Sizemore.  Holliday would also work nicely since Longoria’s average is a bit weak.

Tim Lincecum – You have to have a big bat at 1st base if you’re going to take Lincecum.  If you can’t get Howard, Fielder, Miggy or Tex, skip Lincecum altogether and go for Wright as your first pick.

David Wright – Since he hit, what, 2 homers last year, I’d want a power guy at a weak position to be paired with Wright or a power guy at 1st base.  Think Tulo and Wright.  That’s nice.  Think Wright and Howard.  That sounds like the best pairing since my tilapia, Mad Dog 20/20 pairing last night.