No one carries two catchers in one catcher leagues. If you do, you probably suffer from mushy brain. There’s a cure for that, stop reading ESPN’s fantasy baseball advice. So in 12 team fantasy baseball leagues, you have 10 to 15 catchers at any time to choose from off of waivers. Hey, Miguel Olivo’s guest judging on RuPaul’s Drag U and he’s hitting! What do you know, Rod Barajas looks less Barajas-y! Skinny Pudge is seeing fat pitches!It’s ironic, if I’m using ironic correctly, and helpful for my fantasy team! Most catchers are passed around like blow at a Eric Dane/Rebecca Gayheart clam bake. That, there, is reason enough to punt catcher. There’s always available options on waivers.
The top 4 options at catcher last year were Mauer, Martinez, Posey and McCann. There’s one waiver wire pick-up there. After those guys, we have Buck, Napoli, Olivo, Soto and Ruiz. Three waiver wire pick-ups (Buck, Olivo and Ruiz), two guys who were drafted late in drafts (Soto and Napoli) and one of those guys I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli). It’s like this every year with catchers. If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Saltalamacchia and Arencibia ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2011, I’d say, “I told you Salty, Iannetta and Arencibia were good bargains.” Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value. Open up your little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.
Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher. John Buck. He’s available in every draft. Always is. No one drafts The Midnight Cowboy until around the 18th round. His stats last year were 53/20/66/.281. Victor Martinez’s stats were 64/20/79/.302/1. V-Mart gets drafted 29th overall. The difference between the two was 11 Runs, 13 RBIs, some average and a steal. Flying whoop. Instead of V-Mart, you could draft F-Her. Whereas instead of John Buck, you could draft Kevin Slowey. Oh. Okay. Those are even. A first baseman comparison would be instead of V-Mart, you take Adam Dunn. At Buck’s spot, you draft Gaby Sanchez. Huge difference there, too. A shortstop comparison would be Reyes vs. Scutaro. Another huge difference. At catcher, there’s hardly any difference. You can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much. No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.
For these pairings, I’m going to be using our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. Notably, the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2011, top 60 starters for 2011 and the top 80 starters for 2011. Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done. What is a pitcher pairing? It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff. It’s a plan of action. If you have A pitcher, which B, C and D pitcher goes with him? You should have six starters. The sixth starter is Mike Minor or take whoever you want. I suggest an upside pick. Mike Minor comes to mind. Or Jordan Zimmermann. Jordan Zimmermann also comes to mind. I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 Pitchers league. (NOTE: What you are about to read is massively confusing. If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me.) Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2011 fantasy baseball drafts:
TIERS
“The best, Jerry. The best!” and “Top starters that I’m wary of.” – These tiers are from Halladay to Sabathia. There’s very little chance I have anyone in either of these tiers. If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Haren tier of the top 40 starters. Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Marcum/Daniel Hudson and one guy from the flyer tier of Chacin. Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Minor or Zimmermann. So F-Her, Scherzer, Marcum, Chacin, Vazquez and Zimmermann. That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.
“I’m going to have one of these guys on my team,”“I would draft one of these guys, but I think others will take them first” and “If I failed to get a pitcher in the Lester tier, I absolutely need one from this tier.” —
These tiers go from Lester to Greinke. With the pitchers from these tiers, you don’t have the same luxury of Halladay’s tier. I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Lester and Greinke with anyone in the Hamels tier, but it’s not mandatory. In other words, if I have Lester, I wouldn’t ignore Hamels (or anyone in his tier) if he fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either. You’ll be fine taking Lester and moving right into the top 40 starters. So let’s say you start your staff with Lester and Oswalt because he falls to you, you should skip right to Marcum. Again, if someone from Haren’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point. So if you have Lester, Oswalt, Marcum, you jump to Chacin’s tier and grab two pitchers. (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.) So that leaves you with Lester, Oswalt, Marcum, Chacin, Morrow and Mike Minor. Great looking staff, or so says Gosh Johnson, Josh’s porn star brother.
Now, if you draft someone from Lester’s tier but don’t take another starter until the top 40 starters post, that works too. You take Kershaw then two guys from Haren’s tier, so Kershaw, Scherzer and Billingsley. If that fails to happen, you take Kershaw, a guy from Haren’s tier and two guys from Marcum’s tier, so Kershaw, Cain, Marcum and Daniel Hudson. If that doesn’t happen, you take Kershaw, one guy from Haren’s tier, one guy from Marcum’s tier and two guys from Chacin’s tier. So Kershaw, Cain, Marcum, Chacin and Morrow. Now if you have the first scenario — Kershaw, Scherzer and Billingsley — you then take two pitchers in Chacin’s tier. If you have the 2nd scenario — Kershaw, Cain, Marcum and Daniel Hudson — you take one pitcher from Chacin’s tier. Oh, and remember, every team needs a sixth starter — Mike Minor or Jordan Zimmermann.
“Kinda boring, but reliable number three starters.” and “Not bad options, but I see no upside.” — This tier goes from Lilly to Dempster in the top 40 starters and Danks to Shields in the top 60 starters post. These are number three and four starters if — and this “if” has its own solar system — you somehow Mr. Bungle getting a number two starter or you feel like your staff is wonky as all get-out. For instance, you have Kershaw then you go on an insane hitting run and don’t grab another pitcher until Jorge de la Rosa. That means you’ve skipped the entire top 40 starters post. At that point, I’d grab someone from Lilly’s tier. Or if you’ve grabbed Hamels, Cain and Marcum and start worrying that your team has one guy who gives up homers, another who has a FIP’ing problem and another guy who had a poor April last year and you just want some stability, then you grab someone in Danks’ tier.
TROUBLE AREAS
WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.25 WHIP, take one below. The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be. For instance, if you take Gio Gonzalez, who I have projected for a 1.28, you need to pair him with someone I have projected for below a 1.25. Don’t pair Gio with Wandy. Don’t pair Gio with Dempster. Pair Gio with Kuroda. Pair him with Hanson. Pair him with Cain. Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs. In the top 60 starters, there’s only three starters below a 1.25 WHIP. There’s four pitchers in the top 80 and two of them are Peavy and Johan and who knows when they’re pitching. The other two are Hellickson and Travis Wood, who I like but they’re not completely trustworthy. Sidenote: WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.
Yovani Gallardo – I love Gallardo; I have his projected WHIP down for 1.24. That’s optimistic because I am high on him this year. All meanings of the word “high” work for that last sentence. But I know I’m being optimistic so I would try to balance his WHIP out with another pitcher. Say, Kuroda or Lilly. Say, Tim Hudson or Matt Cain.
K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue. You’re shooting for around 150/starter.
Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st. Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint. Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive. For further reading on that subject, see Mat Latos’ 2010.
With the Razzball Commenter Leagues sign ups starting on Monday, we decided to take a look at what last year’s RCLs showed us. I.e., this is what it took to win these fantasy baseball leagues last year. Across twenty-one 12 team leagues, you would think you’d have some wide variations, but it’s amazingly close what you need in each category to do average vs. win. Some quick points upfront. There were 5 outfielders and one utility, so if you play in a Yahoo league with three outfielders and two utility, I’d expect more offense across the board. Not much, but some. There was a 180 games started max for pitchers. 6.5 is average in a 12 team league, not 6 because the last place team has 1 point, not zero. Finally, the RCLs are made up of guys that are probably more competitive than your casual fantasy baseball leaguemates, so if you can hit these benchmarks, you should be in good shape. Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 12 team fantasy baseball league:
Runs – 1,021
The average team last year scored 998 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs. To win your league, it took 1,124 runs with the average hitter contributing 86.5 runs. To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 22.80 runs. So 23 runs on top of 998 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings. I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs. So I would aim for 1,021 runs or 79 runs/player.
Home Runs — 255
The average team hit 235 homers. To win, you needed 291 homers or 22.4 homers/player. To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10.19 homers. I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers. So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 235 or 255 homers or 20 homers/player.
RBIs — 973
The average team needed 948 RBIs. To win, you had to get 1,083 or 83.6 RBIs/player. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24.4 RBIs. I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs. So I would aim for 973 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.
Steals — 177
The average team needed 150 steals. To win, you had to get 208 or 16 steals/player. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.5 steals. I aim for 8 points in steals. So I would aim for 177 steals or 14 steals/player.
Average — .271
The average team’s, uh, average is .271. To win, you had to get a .284. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002. I aim for average in, well, ya know. So I would want a .271 average. Let the rest figure itself out.
Strikeouts — 1,272
The average team’s Ks are 1,149. To win, you needed to rack up 1,342 Ks. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 34.99 Ks. I aim for a 10 in Ks. Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up. So I would want 1,272 Ks from my pitching staff.
Wins — 86
The average team’s pitchers won 86 games. To win, you needed to win 104 . To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3.23 games. (Any Astro pitcher is good for at least four .23 wins.) I go for average here, which is 86 games. Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.
Saves — 122
The average team’s relievers closed out 87 games. To win, you needed 142 saves. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.02 saves. I aim for a 10 in saves. My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers. To get 10 points in saves, you needed 122 saves.
ERA — 3.56
The average team’s pitchers had a 3.64 ERA. To win, you needed a 3.18 ERA. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08. I aim for a 7.5 in ERA. So I would want a 3.56 ERA. In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.
WHIP — 1.23
The average team’s pitchers had a 1.26 WHIP. To win, you needed a 1.18 WHIP. To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01. I aim for a 9 in WHIP. So I would want a 1.23 WHIP.
Where do the starters exit the stadium when the game’s over because I’m a groupie for strikeout heavy pitchers, i.e., Grey’s high on a high K/9, i.e., ergo, henceforth, vis-a-vis, I’d own these starters. Why the hearts on the notebook, Grey? Glad you asked, random italicized voice. Picture this scenario, your pitcher’s in a jam. Man on 3rd with one out in the bottom of the 2nd. Up walks the eight hole hitter. (For this example, let’s assume it’s not the Cards, cuz then it would be the pitcher.) In this situation, a ground out will probably score the man on third, so the best scenario is a strikeout. When you have a high K/9 pitcher, that’s a strong possibility. If you have a guy that pitches more to contact cough Pineiro cough, then you’re relying on factors out of the pitcher’s control, namely the defense. Now I didn’t bother listing pitchers that have top K/9’s like Lincecum because they’re all owned or expensive to get in a trade. Instead, I listed pitchers that have a strong K/9 (above eight) that I could see either being available or getting in a trade for a reasonable price. Anyway, here’s some top K/9 fantasy baseball starters:
Tommy Hanson – 9.68 K/9. I just went over him in a roundup last week. I’m still not completely convinced he’s going to avoid setbacks, but for the right price I’d put some of that my hand, son.
Clayton Kershaw – 9.61 K/9. Has the 7th best K/9 and a 5+ BB/9, which is incredibly bad. In his young career, Kershaw seems like he needs to audit Pitch Management 101.
Jered Weaver – 9.92 K/9. Throwing his curveball a lot more this year has bumped his K-rate up by more than 2 per inning and has batters swinging and missing at pitches outside the strike zone by 7% more. Meanwhile, his brother, Jeff cries himself to sleep.
James Shields – His K/9 in 2009 was 6.84, his K/9 this year is 9.22. What the flippin’ frack is going on?
Tom Gorzelanny – K/9 is 9.23, which is excellent. Might be the first time I’ve mentioned Gorzelanny in a positive light this year. Just hard for me to get behind reclamation projects. I’m like the Councilman in that scene of Treme where Big Chief… *snooze* Wait, is the episode over? What happened in that scene where… *snooze* At this point, I just hope Treme doesn’t ruin my future re-watchings of The Wire. Anyhoo, Gorzelanny might get bumped for Big Z, so I’d put my excitement on simmer.
Ricky Romero – 9.48 K/9. Still going to have some terrible matchups, and I have my doubts if he can continue at the pace he’s on, but definitely worth owning and starting just about everywhere.
Colby Lewis – 9.10 K/9. He was terrible in the US, then he found himself in Japan and returned to find success here. Colby is a Survivor! His xFIP is 3.99 and I think in his home park in the summer he might be lucky to keep it that low, but the Ks are definitely there.
Felipe Paulino – 8.59 K/9. Yeah, that’s nice, but his walk rate is 5.26, which even beats BBershaw.
Phil Hughes – 8.88 K/9. Top Yankee strikeout pitcher by a huge margin with CC coming in with a 6.75. BTW, Halladay has a 6.90 K/9, way down from last year, which is almost as odd as what Shields is doing.
Justin Masterson – 8.81 K/9. His walk rate is bad at 4.98, but his xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA because his BABIP is an insane .405. I know numbers make your brain hurt, so I’ll say this. In theory, he should be a lot better, but so should deep-fried Twinkies but, in the end, they just taste like greasy batter. Wait, greasy batter’s delicious!
H2H, Head-to-Head, whatever you want to call it doesn’t change a lot from our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings. There are 300 billion suns in the Milky Way galaxy. There are 100s of billions of galaxies in the universe. There are at least 256,000 planets exactly like Earth. Yet, there’s one Albert Pujols. He’s still number one. And so on and so forth. The strategy to play H2H changes. You aren’t hoping Dunn hits 40 homers by October, but whether or not he’ll hit two homers on Sunday or if you should sit him to try and win steals. It’s all about the match-ups, ya’ll! So you want to build a team that can match-up well with any other team. Anyway, let’s look at some Head-to-Head fantasy baseball draft strategy:
1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.
This is not to say a guy who is DL’d. They go on DL and that’s fine cause then you can replace them. Nagging injuries? Whole different bailiwick. You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone. Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple. Go ahead, look behind you. Yeah, that’s me. What’s up? Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as Chipper nurses his hammy. BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.
2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.
What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you? 2 steals per week? They’re not going to win you steals. So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway. Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too. You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet. See what those steal-only guys get you? That doesn’t mean to punt these categories. It means draft a balanced team. Guys that will get you speed and power. Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it. If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category. Are they giving you categories? No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories. There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).
3. Starters, Starters, Starters…
If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity. Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy. Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA. Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing. Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing. So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter. Then another starter, then another. Take them until you can’t take anymore. This also means to wait even longer for starters. Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained. You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.
4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.
Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week. As Frida used to say, hasta luego, Rivera. I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced. Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid. To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.
