Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings in the bag, we turn to strategy.  Did you know your very own mustachioed ‘pert has a fantasy baseball draft strategy?  It’s called Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.  As you can see from that link, it’s in its 2nd year of existence.  With a new year comes some changes.  The first big change, I lost the 2nd -ing.  Not sure why I was dropping gerunds like they were “tic-tacs,” but I’m a changed man.  I was younger then, almost a full year.  Let’s face it, I was naïve.  That draft strategy was like amateur hour.  And this is the first time I’m admitting this to anyone, but my cousin wrote the whole thing.  I’m not going to tell you my cousin’s name or why I had him write it.  I was young and stupid.  Not as young or as stupid as I was the day or weeks preceding that draft strategy post, but young and naïve and stupid nevertheless.  Luckily, I got all of my young, amateur hour, stupidness out in that one post and I was able to go back to being a fantasy baseball blogger without the assistance of my cousin, Tom.  Okay, I am telling you his name.  But that’s the last you’re ever going to hear from him or me on him or him on me.  We’re through, Tom and I.  This is 100% my fantasy baseball draft strategy and some that I cribbed from other people.  Enjoy.

1.  Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Johan.  No Lincecum.  No Javier Vazquez if you’re a diehard CHONEr.  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  If I had a pet guinea pig, I’d name him Joham.  These sums-a-snitches give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Beltran or whoever is too great.  Recognize!  Or not.  Your call.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Nathan, Rivera, Lidge… Wait, this has a name!  I need to look it up in my fantasy baseball glossary… I knew it!  This is a closer run!  I have to take K-Rod with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  You barely need a 2nd tier one.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves, because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

As appealing as Ryan Church seems on your bench, it’s poppycock.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Jose Guillen on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder, just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Crapolanco or Ian Stewart for your MI spot, who do you choose?  Pierzynski or Saltymochachino?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your second, third and fourth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  So when choosing between Greinke and Lowe, go Lowe.  Between Kershaw and Baker, go Kershaw.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

There is a fundamental divide amongst fantasy baseball drafters:  those who hate drafting pitchers in the first 8 rounds and those who don’t.

I am the latter.  I’m not saying I prefer to draft pitching over hitting.  Much like Billy Beane at the Winter Meetings and Billy Bean at a Winter Sale, I’m always looking for a good deal.  If people want to overvalue hitters and undervalue pitchers, I’ll draft some pitchers.

Rather than proselytize my drafting philosophy in this post, I’m just going to look back at Rounds 3-8 of 2008 and objectively analyze the findings.

The analysis was based on the following:

• Players are valued (ACT PS) based on 10 team ‘Point Shares’ for a MLB C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CI /MI / 5 OF/ 9 P universe. Point Shares are the estimated increase or decrease that a player would provide the average fantasy team if replacing the average player at his position.
• Draft position value (EXP PS) estimated by taking the Point Share total for the player who finished with that ranking – e.g., Mark Teixeira finished in 25th with 3.39 point shares so this was the Expected Point Shares for the 25th draft pick.
• ADP (Average Draft Position) from MockDraftCentral.com
• Green shading = Player delivered above value; Yellow shading = Player delivered close to value (ACT PS – EXP PS = 0 – -2.0); Orange shading = Player delivered far below value (ACT PS – EXP PS < -2.0)

Here are the final totals by position:

Pos	Value (>0)	Solid (0 – -2.0)	Below Value (< -2.0)	Total
C	1	1	2	4
1B	1	2	2	5
2B	1	1	2	4
SS	0	1	5	6
3B	0	2	2	4
OF	3	4	11	18
DH	0	0	1	1
SP	5	1	7	13
RP	3	1	1	5
Total	14	13	33	60

Notes: Rounds 3-8 are tougher than they appear. More than half the picks delivered far below their expected value. The only position that delivered above average value – aka the best bargain – were relief pitchers (K-Rod, Papelbon, and Nathan were the bargains). Most hitting positions are about 50/50 with one glaring exception – shortstops. The only SS that was even close to a good value was Michael Young as Jeter, C-Guile, Tulo, Tejada, and Furcal all disappointed.

Starting Pitching is definitely the most extreme. There were some great bargains (CC, Hamels, Haren) as well as several busts (Bedard, Verlander, Smoltz, Harang, etc.). If we were to apply our ‘risky pitcher‘ criteria to the 13 pitchers drafted between 21-80 in 2008, it would’ve ignored the 5 value starters (though Sabathia and Hamels were close to +700 pitches from previous year) and flagged Kazmir (+700 pitch spike), Lackey (27+% breaking pitches), Smoltz (27+% breaking pitches), and Bedard (27+% breaking pitches). So that would leave 5 great picks and 4 horrible picks. Not great but better value then seen in the hitting positions…

Followers of Razzball know this site has a concise strategy when it comes to saves: SAGNOF. In short, 30 saves is 30 saves, so why pay Papelbon for the privilege of providing them, when you can get them on the cheap from Brian Wilson?

Followers of Baron Von Vulturewins know that the Baron is the greediest, horniest, dirtiest, most shameless saves-whore around. (For patented strategy, see comment under this post. How shameless? Well, if the Baron found Jensen Lewis lying dead by the side of the road, he’d shake the corpse by the ankles just to see if five saves fell out. (Last year, 13 fell out.)

In short, me love the Junky Closers.

A common objection is this: Sure, Junky Closers give you dirty, dirty saves, but just how much will Joe Borowski/Brian Wilson/C.J. Wilson/Carnie Wilson hurt my team in other categories? Won’t he poop all over my team ERA and WHIP while hurting me in Ks?

To which the Baron says: Good question. Let the numbers speak!

Let’s start with ERA. In my regular league (12 team mixed league roto), we play with a 1300 IP maximum, which is pretty standard. Last year, the winning ERA was 3.25. (Dude had Halladay.) Now, I’m no mathemagician, but in that scenario, that means the pitchers on Team X – let’s call them the Dribbling Nozzles – gave up roughly 469 runs.

Now, let’s say that the Nozzles carried a Mint Closer like Nathan all year (39 saves, 1.33 ERA), who gave up just 10 ER. Now let’s replace Nathan with a year’s worth of Junky Closer/SAGNOF favorite/obese housebound harmonizing genius Brian Wilson (41 saves, 4.25 ERA), who gave up 32 ER. Big difference, right?

Well, when we make this swap the Dribbles team ERA balloons to – wait for it! — 3.40. So the difference between Nathan (arguably the best reliever last year and a costly 5th round pick) and Wilson (lame-ass 17th round workaday schmo), is about .15 points of team ERA. Which in our league would have slipped the Dribbles from first in ERA down to, um, a tie for first. Total loss = 1/2 point — you know, like in that old karate video game.

Of course, in a tighter race, this could have meant losing a point or even two. But in that tight of a race, you’re probably not wishing you drafted Nathan instead of Wilson. You’re probably wishing you hadn’t RUN IAN SNELL OUT WEEK AFTER AGONIZING WEEK FOR, LIKE, TWO MONTHS.

But wait, you say! Wilson was actually pretty decent for a Junky Closer. Okay, then let’s swap in the most turdtastic closer in recent memory, Mr. Joe Borowski circa 2007, when he tallied 45 saves and a malodorous 5.07 ERA. If you traveled back in a time machine, drafted Blowrowski, transported him to 2008, and replaced Nathan with him – well, then your 3.25 team ERA wouldn’t swell to 3.40. It would swell to 3.43.

Keep in mind that top closers actually accumulate very few IP, usually around 70 (or about 5% of your season total). So even a bloated, ugly, horror-movie-quality ERA (like 5.07) means relatively few runs added to your total ER, and thus a small total effect on your team ERA. The gap between Nathan (10 ER) and Blowrowski (37 runs) is just a net gain of 27 ER, or roughly one bad outing by Aaron Harang in Coors.

Now onto WHIP. Our league’s WHIP leader last year (same team, surprise, surprise) was at 1.20. Swapping out Nathan for Wilson raises that to 1.22. Swapping in Borowski ‘07 raises it to 1.23.

Not exactly the final minutes of the Hindenburg.

The Nozzles did pretty badly in strikeouts, finishing 9th with 1075. If they’d had Papelbon (77 Ks), not Borowski ‘07 (58), the 19 extra Ks would have moved them up one place in the standings. But, really, is 19 Ks – i.e. one-and-a-half Lincecum starts — really going to make your break your season? What are you, made of baby-juice?

Obviously, you have to adjust this for your particular league, rules, roster-sizes, etc. But the basic point is: Grabbing Paps or Nathan early might gain you a point or two overall, assuming he doesn’t pull a Putz and blow out his elbow. But ask yourself this: How many extra points would you have gained by using that 5th round pick on a stud OF instead of Papelnuts?

The only category where closers add real value is – wait for it — saves. And Joe Borowski’s 45 saves are exactly as valuable as Jon Papelbon’s 45 saves. And a whole heck of a lot cheaper.

Now ask yourself this: If you have a time machine, why are you using it to go back in time and draft Joe Borowski and not to kill baby Hitler?

Seriously, you should have killed baby Hitler.

This post picks out 20 starting pitchers who look like risky propositions in 2009.  It leverages findings from our analysis of previous year pitch counts and how this information can help predict a pitcher’s chance of breaking down (defined as less than 2000 pitches which is ~ 120 IP) or performance drops (0.50+ increase in FIP) in the following season.

The key criteria we looked at are:

1. % of Curves/Sliders - Above 27% is bad.  Above 30% is worse.  Etc.
2. Pitch count difference between 2007 and 2008 - Anything above 700 is bad.  Unlike our initial analysis, we factored in postseason pitches as well as estimated minor-league pitches.
3. First year above the 2,700+ MLB pitch threshold in 2008 – Yes is bad.

If the statistic next to these criteria is in red, that’s bad.  If in blue, it’s okay.  You will find that we will throw in a few other stats along the way like BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) but these serve only as FYIs/additional warnings as our two ‘failure’ measures are luck independent (aside from perhaps some of the HR component of FIP).

Since our previous research showed that about 45% of pitchers follow up 2700+ pitch seasons with seasons of less than 2000 pitches or a +0.50 FIP increase, averages say that 9 of these 20 should ‘fail’.  Our bold estimate is that at least 12 of these 20 will fail with the top 10 having at least 6 that fail.

We apologize in advance for the following:

• If one of these pitchers is on your favorite real team and/or a keeper on your fantasy team
• If one of these pitchers is a friend, family member, lover or teammate.
• If one of these pitchers is you.
• If you avoid one of these players based on this advice and they prove us wrong.

Now that we got our approach and apologies out of the way, here we go….

1. Armando Galarraga

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches:  2,984 (est. 204 in minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +2,631 (est. +403 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Part ‘Big Cat’ and part ‘Blownitez’, Armando had an impressive rookie year going 13-7/3.73/1.19 after being acquired in a pre-season trade with the Texas Rangers (one of these days they might actually keep one of their farm-grown pitchers – see Chris Young, John Danks, Edinson Volquez…).

Predicting a fall back for Galarraga is almost too easy.  The 39% curve/slider rate is really high (will elaborate more on this with the next two pitchers on the list) and his pitch count had a nice spike vs. the previous year.  The reason he is #1 is that in the case he doesn’t break down next year (probably close to 50/50), he’ll likely be pulled from the rotation at some point if his ERA matches or exceeds last year 4.88 FIP.  Yes, that’s a 1.15 difference between ERA and FIP which was the biggest gap in the MLB.   His BABIP was a ridiculous .247 (average is around .290).  So this feels a bit like cheating since this is supposed to be only about using previous year’s pitch counts vs. other factors but is it really cheating if you cop to it?

2. Ricky Nolasco

2008 Curve/Slider % – 43%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,243
Difference From 2007:  +2,894 (est. +2,366 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Nolasco showed a little promise in 2006 before an injury-marred 2007.  I doubt very many people expected him to have the breakout 2008 season.  Expectations will be higher in 2009 and the prospects don’t look very good.  He FAR exceeds the year-over-year pitch count and the curve/slider %.   This was also his first season above 2,700+ MLB pitches making him 3-for-3 on the criteria.  Only 10 pitchers in 2005-2007 hit all three criteria.  Here’s the list:

2005 – Joe Blanton, Josh Towers, Bruce Chen, John Patterson
2006:  Ervin Santana, Felix Hernandez
2007:  Adam Wainwright, Rich Hill, Boof Bonser

The pitchers who made it to 2000+ pitches the next year were Joe Blanton, F-Her, and Ervin Santana.  You may recall that Ervin Santana was God awful in 2007.  F-Her and Blanton, who fared okay, at least pitched a number of innings in the minors the year prior (vs. Nolasco’s injury-plagued 2007).

Knowing that it may be tough for some to steer clear of Nolasco, I wrote this poem to help you remember:

Ricky Nolasco
Really pitched fantastico
But he’s not made of elastico
So drafters please watch out

The reason he’s taking a fall
He throws a lot of breaking balls
And his pitch count spiked, making this call
One with little doubt

3. Gavin Floyd

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,235
Difference From 2007:  +2,082 (est. +383 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Floyd was a top prospect that had trouble shaking injuries early in his career (54 IP in 2004-2005) to pitch two injury-free seasons in a row.  While his 2,000+ MLB pitch spike can be downplayed because of 106 IP in the minors in 2007, throwing 39% breaking balls (split close to even between sliders and curve balls) is extremely high for a young pitcher.  Here is the list of starting pitchers with 3 or less seasons of 2,700+ pitches to throw over 35% pitches in a season from 2005-2007:  Casey Fossum (47% – 2005), Tony Armas Jr (36% – 2006), Ramon Ortiz (35% – 2006), Ian Snell (37% – 2007), Boof Bonser (39% – 2007), and Adam Wainwright (35% – 2007).  All six of these players fell back hard the next year – either missing significant time or pitching less effective.

The moral of the story is that a pitcher who throws breaking balls at this high of a rate is running up a debt on their arm that will be paid in the next year (and, possibly, beyond).  I will call it a Faustonian Bargain after the Oriole pitcher (and longtime Cub broadcaster) Steve Stone who blew his arm out throwing 50% curve balls during his 1980 Cy Young year.

Throw in the fact that Floyd had a super-low BABIP (.268) and the safe bet is that he is more likely to be useless in an AL-only league than be useful in a mixed league.

4. Brett Myers

2008 Curve/Slider % – 42%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,739 (est. 442 in minors)
Difference From 2007:  +2,078 (est. +2,520 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

The demands of a World Series run the year after a season with 48 of 51 appearances coming in relief does not bode well for Brett Myers in 2009.  He started featuring his slider more in 2006 when his breaking pitch % jumped from 25% to 37% – so perhaps the move to closer in 2007 was a fortuitous one.  But then he goes and throws more breaking pitches in 2008 (est. 1,500-1,600) than total pitches in 2007 (1,193).  Since this effort helped the Phillies win the World Series, they shouldn’t boo him too loudly when he gets slapped onto the DL for an extended period in 2009.  And in case you have a short memory on the dangers of pitchers who are coming off a relief season + full starter season, take a look at the stats of Wainwright, Carmona, and Gaudin in 2008.

5. Ryan Dempster

2008 Curve/Slider % – 27%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,450
Difference From 2007:  +2,420 (est. +2,388 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

See the Brett Myers comment regarding the one year delay effect on relievers who move to starters.  I call a Dempster dive in 2009.

6. Andy Sonnanstine

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,183
Difference From 2007:  +1,085 (est. -51 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Is it me or does this guy sound like a 10 year old kid?  Andy Sonnanstine to the principal’s office!  Sonnanstine has the weakest stuff of Tampa Bay’s top four (averages just 87 MPH on his fastball) so he has to over-rely on both cutters (30%) and breaking pitches (39%).  I won’t recycle the earlier points on the high breaking ball rate – I think you get our POV by now.  It seems like World Series teams always have one casualty and he seems like the best bet.  If he somehow manages to stay healthy, I’d expect an ERA closer to 2007’s 5.85 vs. last year’s 4.38 despite the fact that his FIP/BABIP indicates he might’ve had some bad luck last year.

7. Jonathan Sanchez

2008 Curve/Slider % – 12%
2008 Total Pitches:  2,830
Difference From 2007:  +1,825 (est. +1,454 if minor league pitchesvaz included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Owner of the best Jewish/Latino name since Welcome Back Kotter’s Juan Epstein, Sanchez is the 3rd converted reliever to appear on the list.  He had never pitched more than 70 innings a year prior to last year’s 158 IP.  And a Sanchez inning is a lot more stressful than a typical inning as he piles up a lot of strikeouts (8.94/9 innings) and walks (4.27/9 innings).  He’ll be targeted by a number of drafters since has a high K rate and pitches in the NL W(eak)est.  Send them this post when he goes down with this Nelson Muntz audio clip.

8. Todd Wellemeyer

2008 Curve/Slider % – 24%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,095
Difference From 2007:  +1,715 (est. +1,699 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

The 4th converted reliever on the list.  If Andy Sonnanstine sounds like a 10-year old, Wellemeyer sounds like the fat kid at the fraternity house that only goes by his last name and wins all the drinking/belching contests.  The huge pitch spike will likely derail Wellemeyer in 2009 giving Cardinal fans deja vu from 2008 Wainwright.  Unless, that is, Braden Looper shares his secret…

9. Dana Eveland

2008 Curve/Slider % - 32%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,020 (est. 336 in minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +2,578 (est. +2,319 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – N/A (pitched 2,684 last year)

Eveland came up through Milwaukee’s farm system and went to Arizona in the Johnny Estrada trade and to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade.  After pitching only 37 IP in 2007, he deivered a promising 2008 where his 4.34 ERA in 168 IP underestimated his performance (4.09 FIP).  While his 2008 MLB pitch total is just below the 2,700 threshold, he cleared that if you include 3 minor league starts.  That pitch spike is dangerously high and his reliance on breaking pitches only make it more likely for a fall back in 2009.  I doubt Eveland is really a fantasy option outside AL-only leagues but he is a risk nonetheless.

10. Johnny Cueto

2008 Curve/Slider % – 32%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,036 (est. 204 in minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +3,036 (est. +455 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

While he sounds like a school bully character that Billy Zabka would play in an 80’s movie (Sweep the leg!), Cueto might need protection from a sore arm.  He’s got a Pedro build and throws more breaking stuff than Pedro did during his durable prime.  I’m not crazy about the pitch count increase or that it was his first year of 2,700+ pitches but the sliders worry me most.  I’m sure Dusty Baker will throw him 120 pitches in a late April game to expedite his inevitable shutdown.

11. Zack Greinke

2008 Curve/Slider % – 31%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,227
Difference From 2007:  1,144
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

Last time Greinke topped 3,000 pitches (2005), he had a mental breakdown the next year.  He might be headed for a physical breakdown this year.  That’s both a big spike in pitch count and a high percentage of breaking balls.  Of the 10 pitchers who threw 2,700+ pitches, 30+% breaking balls, and had a 700+ pitch spike between 2005-2007, 6 broke down the next year and another 2 saw a 0.50+ increase in their FIP.  If you believe those stats, there is only a 4-1 chance (20%) that Greinke can stay healthy and post an ERA below 4.00.  Okay for a late round play but avoid him in the middle rounds.

12. Ervin Santana

2008 Curve/Slider % – 35%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,526
Difference From 2007:  +917 (est. -414 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

Santana bounced back from a Homeschooled 2007 (1-10, 8.38 ERA on road) to have a career year in 2008.  He’s maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in ‘06 to 33% in ‘08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009.

13. Jesse Litsch

2008 Curve/Slider % – 23%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,095 (est 340 iin the minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +984 (est. +106 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Litsch was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners and Jays fans in 2008 – posting 13 wins and a 3.58 ERA in 176 IP.  While his 5.06K/9 IP is pretty ugly, it is the percentage of fastballs (24%) that is downright frightening.  Litsch depends heavily on a cut fastball at the rate of 43% of his pitches.  Combined with the pitch spike, I’d say Litsch is one of those drafted pitchers that may be on the FA wire by the end of April.

14. John Lester

2008 Curve/Slider % – 17%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,758
Difference From 2007:  +2,074 (est. +1,080 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

It’s hard to count out Lester given what he’s overcome and he throws a cutter (22% of pitches) instead of a slider.  If he keeps throwing the cutter at that rate, he’s a serious long-term threat (check out Steve Avery and Jim Abbott’s stats after they turned 30).  For 2009, the huge pitch count increase could end up hurting him worse than the grating accents of Sawx fans – Hey Jahn Lestah!  Gid jahb fickin’ beatin’ cancah!

15. Mike Pelfrey

2008 Curve/Slider % – 14%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,323
Difference From 2007:  +2,038 (est. +758 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Pelfrey rebounded from an awful 2007 to regain some of the luster he had prior to that season (although his minor league stats don’t look that great, I suppose it isn’t the first time the Mets oversold a prospect).  From a fantasy perspective, his 110 Ks in 200 IP look awful but he does throw a high number of ground balls (~50%) which limits extra-base hits.  He made this list because of his pitch count spike from 2007 to 2008.  It is the type of thing that makes a borderline draftable pitcher a non-draftable pitcher.

16. AJ Burnett

2008 Curve/Slider % – 30%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,650
Difference From 2007:  +1,001
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

A perennial risk who has never really put together the Cy Young-caliber season that his stuff hints at.  For a guy with a history of arm injuries and a plus fastball, there is no reason to throw so many curve balls (same thing with Sheets).  The Yanks have a lot more incentive than the Jays to reduce that breaking ball rate but it will likely come at the expense of ERA/WHIP unless he develops another strong off speed pitch (he throws his change-up only 5% of the time and has no split-finger fastball).  He is worth the risk as a 2nd half of the draft selection but the move to the Yanks will likely boost him into the top 100 or so picks.  I’d pass.

17. Matt Garza

2008 Curve/Slider % – 20%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,378
Difference From 2007:  +1,493 (est. +452 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

The Twins usually reserve their bad moves for resigning their own free agents (see recent Punto and Kubel signings) but the Garza/Bartlett for Delmon Young/Brendan Harris trade isn’t looking too good for them one year out.  I don’t know if the Veal Hook will improve in 2009 but my bet is that Garza will fall back a bit.  The extended playoff run left him with a small total pitch spike but a large one for MLB pitches.  Think those pitches down the pennant stretch and in the playoffs may have been more stressful than throwing mid-season for the Rochester Red Wings (Twins AAA affiliate) in upstate New York?  It doesn’t help that his 2008 numbers are boosted by a better than average BABIP (.278).

The risk is mitigated somewhat by the fact that he’s young enough to improve and doesn’t overdo it on the breaking pitches thanks to confidence in a fastball that averages 93 MPH.  Risky enough that he isn’t worth reaching for but perhaps worth a flier as a 5th or 6th starter.

18. Javier Vazquez

2008 Curve/Slider % – 36%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,376 (est. 80 in the minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  -89
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

Vazquez is as consistent as they come in terms of innings pitched throwing 198+ every year this decade.  He provides better than average Ks and somehwat disappointing ratios to the frustration of statheads.  So why predict a breakdown when he’s moving back to the kinder National League?  Last year’s spike in breaking pitches driven by an overaffection for the slider (increase of about 215 more breaking balls thrown between 2007 and 2008) could have a carryover effect that even CHONE’s optimism won’t be able to reverse.

19. Ted Lilly

2008 Curve/Slider % – 35%
2008 Total Pitches:  3,240
Difference From 2007:  -79
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

The only player whose name contains two How I Met Your Mother characters, Lilly has been everything the Cubs could have realistically hoped for in his first two seasons.  He has pitched his only two 200 IP seasons and tamed the wildness he experienced in his final 3 years with Toronto (4+ BB/IP with Toronto, down to about 2.5 with Cubs).  The big flashing warning sign with Lilly is his growing reliance on breaking pitches.  In 2006 and 2007, he threw 31% breaking pitches throwing an even split of curve balls and sliders.  In 2008, this moved to 35% with 2-1 slider to curveball ratio.  I imagine a pitcher like Lilly would feel more stress from sliders than curve balls given the lollipop curve he throws (like Barry Zito or David Wells).

He’s come back strong after 30+% breaking pitches in 2006 and 2007 but I don’t think the third time will be the charm.  With a fastball that has decreased in average speed since 2006 (90 to 88 to 87), Lilly is going to have to evolve into a Glavine/Moyer type pitcher in order to stay effective.  Glavine relied heavily on changeups (38% in his last good year with the Mets) while Moyer throws over 50% cut fastballs and changeups.  While Lilly has a changeup (16% of pitches in 2008), I think 2009 is more likely a year of transition (and DL time) than a continuation of his (relative) Cubbie success.

20. Scott Baker

2008 Curve/Slider % – 32%
2008 Total Pitches:  2,596 (est. 80 in the minor leagues)
Difference From 2007:  +597 (est. -91 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – N/A (pitched 2,694 in 2008)

Baker had a very nice year under the radar with an 11-4/3.45/1.18 season in 172 IP.  He also has a strong K/BB ratio of 3.36 and had a manageable year-over-year pitch count difference.  But that 32% breaking ball rate makes him a risky bet to avoid significant missed time.

Other notes

Guys who can easily be on this list but I don’t think you’d draft them anyway: Brandon Backe, John Lannan, Brian Bannister, Tim Redding, Greg Smith

Guys who can easily be on this list but we just felt an unquantifiable good vibe about:

• Tim Lincecum – No doubt that his 3,682 pitch count in 2008 was unnecessarily high.  He threw about 2,900 pitches in 2007 (counting minor league pitches) so the pitch spike is borderline.  Our optimism comes from the fact that he throws fastballs and changeups 85% of the time.
• Ben Sheets – Spiked 800 pitches to get to 3,000 for the first time since 2004 and threw 33% curveballs.  He’s always an injury risk but we feel like he might have another 200 Inning / 3,000 pitch year in him after all those 1/2 years.  [UPDATE - He might have one of those seasons in him but it's highly doubtful it'll be 2009.]
• Chad Billinglsey – That was a near 1,000 pitch increase vs. 2007 if you factor in the postseason (about 2,500 to 3,500).  20% breaking ball % is fair.  At 6′1″ 245 lbs, just feels like he can handle the load.
• Kevin Slowey – A 1,378 MLB pitch count increase is ugly although it’s more like a 700 pitch decrease if you factor in his 2007 minor league pitches.  He’s right near the breaking ball % threshold with 26%.  We just love the fact that he had the best BB/9 IP rate (1.35) of any pitcher in the majors with 160+ IP.
• Randy Johnson – 35% sliders and old as dirt but he’s a freak of nature
• Manny Parra – Throws five pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Split-Finger, and Slider) all for balls (4.07 BB/9 IP).  Big spike in MLB pitch count (2,403) but only 323 if you factor in Minors.  20% breaking ball rate is fair.  Feel like his bigger issue will be throwing strikes in 2009 vs. staying healthy.

Guys who had big pitch count spikes but we feel have no more risk than the average pitcher:

• Cole Hamels – Jumped from 2,906 pitches to 3,914 pitches (487 in postseason) but he’s mainly a fastball/changeup pitcher (only 14% breaking balls).  Don’t think he can handle another workload like 2008 but he’ll manage an effective 3,000 pitches.
• James Shields – Another pitcher who relies  heavily on the arm-friendly changeup (~ 30%) over the curveball (10%).  Threw 3,543 total pitches in 2008 but it was only a 366 jump from 2007.  Feel a little uneasy about the prevalence of cut fastballs (19%) and minimial % of fastballs (45%).
• Edinson Volquez – 3,386 pitches in his first full MLB year is excessive (thanks Dusty!) but he threw around the same number of pitches in 2007 (b/w majors and minors) and – like Lincecum, Hamels, and Shields – throws a ton of changeups (32%) vs. breaking balls (12%)
• Jair Jurrjens – Taking his minor league pitches into account, Jurrjens pitch total increased to about 800 last year.  Broken record though – 26% changeup, 12% slider.
• John Danks – A 842 pitch spike but a low % of breaking balls (11%) because of his cut fastball and changeup.

When I say, “Catcher…” You say, “Punt…”  “Catcher…”  “Punt…” “Catcher…”  “Punt…”  “Punt!” Ah, keeping you on your toes.  When you punt at catcher, you’re taking your fantasy baseball life into your own hands.  Drafting Geovany Soto is for either rich guys who have the butler do their drafting for them or Cubs fans (and never shall the twain meet).  Punting catcher is what those do that don’t mind rolling up their sleeves and getting their hands dirty.

When you punt catcher, you need to stay on your toes on the waiver wire to see which catchers are hot.  You can’t sit back sipping brandy and watching Brian McCann hit a home run every ninth day.  Nooooo….  You’re under the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge waiting for some schmohawk catcher to have a 3-for-4 game.  That’s right, you’re a catcher troll.  And you need to troll on, troller.  Sometimes for the whole season.  Sometimes you get lucky.  On my teams last year, I settled on Doumit or Shoppach on a few teams.  Every other team shuffled between Dioner, Jesus Flores, Iannetta and a few other schmohawks.  My catcher trolling is only outdone by my saves vulturing. (But that’s for another post.)  You can go through the archives on this site and know I was all about trolling for catchers.  It got so bad last year I was pimping Yorvit Torrealba like he was an El Dorado.  For the ultimate riff on catcher trolling, I turn this post over to commenter, Knightown, who had this to say sometime during last summer:

“ -I wasted a second round pick on V-Mart.
-Now he’s taking up a DL spot for me
-Picked up Rod Barajas
-Sobered up and dropped Rod Barajas
-Picked up the “red-hot” Miguel Olivo
-He retired or something and got 10 AB’s in the 2 weeks I had him
-Picked up Jarred Salta-something-or-other
-Started him yesterday, went o-fer.
-Dropped him and picked up Ramon Hernandez…honestly, only because he was mentioned in today’s blog.

YTD summary, ZERO HR’s from catchers this year.”

Notice what he said in the first line — he drafted Victor Martinez in the 2nd round.  Is there any better reason than that for punting catcher?  Yeah, actually there’s a few.

1) The top three catchers for 2008 were Mauer, McCann and Martin.  After that alliterative troupe, came Doumit, Soto, Fat Molina, Pierzynski, Shoppach, etc.  Notice something?  After the first three, the rest were all there for your picking, catcher troll.

2) No one wants a catcher as a utility guy.  So if you’re without a catcher, there’s a lot fewer teams to deal with trying to snag a productive one.

3) We’ll assume you didn’t draft V-Mart or Posada last year and went with Mauer in the sixth round.  Mauer’s numbers were:  97/9/83/.330/1.  Bengie Molina was the sixth ranked catcher and came in 126th overall on our 2008 Player Rater.  I think we can all agree that you could’ve had Molina way late in your draft if you wanted him.  Molina’s numbers were: 46/16/95/.292.  So you lose some value in Runs and Average and make some in HR/RBI.   You don’t think you could’ve made up that value with that sixth round pick that you wasted on Mauer?  Please.  When I say, “Catcher…”  Well, you get the picture.