1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on DL and that’s fine cause then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as Chipper nurses his hammy.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Matt Capps and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $2 and the bidding’s just gone to $3, go to $4 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Dotel, Capps or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum.  No Halladay.  No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I have bedsheets with Lincecum on them… Hmm… That sounds wrong.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Longoria or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Rivera, Broxton… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Josh Willingham last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Clint Barmes on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.  (Note:  This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.  If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Scott Sizemore?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Slowey?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Tim Hudson or Andy Pettitte?  I’m taking Hudson.  Billingsley or Garza?  I’m going Bills.  Slowey or Price?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Slowey.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.

As we wait for the first prototype of our Razzball helmet that allows us to help call the plays for our readers, here are some tips that will allow you to call audibles like Peyton Manning. (Look at me, Doc, I’m makin’ football analogies!)

I’m in the middle of a draft and I’m somewhat to completely set at a position BUT I can’t believe this hitter is still available.  Should I draft him and 1) Fill CI, MI, or UTIL earlier in the draft than expected  and/or 2) Draft him to set up a pre-season trade?

Generally no on #1.  Always “No” on #2.

I’ll start with the answer to #2.  NEVER draft thinking you’ll be able to trade anyone for close to face value.  Two simple reasons:  1) Everyone is in wanderlust with their team after the draft and generally overvalue most players on their roster and 2) If they valued this player nearly as much as you, then he wouldn’t have dropped as far in the draft!

For #1, I’d only do this if the player is clearly the best hitter on the board with slight consideration for position scarcity.  If you drafted Pujols in the 1^st round and inexplicably Adrian Gonzalez still available in the 4^th round, then sure.  But I’m pretty confident that the 2B, SS, or 3B you have your eyes on isn’t by far the best hitter out there.  I’m supremely confident if you’re eying a Catcher.  But even if they are slightly better than a player at another position, I’d draft the other guy.  Why?  Better roster flexibility throughout the draft – you ALWAYS want the best values and filling up one position and being scarce in another prevents this – and if the league is undervaluing this position early (based on your valuation), then they probably will undervalue it late in the draft too.

Same as above but it’s a pitcher.

You’re not going to get good trade value from a starting pitcher and if you’ve already got a couple of top SPs, that next one will have less incremental value for you.  You obviously value pitchers more than your league mates and will have no problem drafting 5-6 SPs you like spread out throughout the draft that’ll better maximize value and draft flexibility.

Relievers are the exception to the rule.  They are the only players that have fair trade value given their scarcity.  Nothing wrong with stocking up on saves in April/May and then trading a closer when a good deal can be had.   But I can’t see any reason to draft more than 2 closers in the first 10 rounds – even if a top closer is still hanging around by the 9^th/10th.

How do I factor upside into my draft choices?

Sprinkle it in throughout the draft and take more risks later in the draft.

For those who read this blog religiously (which must suck for our Jewish readership as our content must be even more nonsensical when read right to left), you may know that Grey has a perpetual boner (RIP btw) for upside while I’m a bit more conservative.  Here’s why….

You have to realize that ‘upside’ is factored into legitimate projections (CHONE, ZiPs, PECOTA, Marcel) and that the chances of performing above these projections is about the same as performing below these projections.  So ‘upside’ is a sunny word for risk and drafting on ‘upside’ (vs. projected results which represents their ‘average’ statistical outcome) generally means you are reaching for that player.

It’s best to balance ‘upside’ players with more dependable players so you’re getting the most value out of every draft pick and minimizing risk.  I remember seeing a 2009 AL expert draft last year where someone drafted Liriano, David Price, and Chamberlain as 3 of his top 4 starters.  That was nothing more than pitcher roulette in my eyes and they obviously didn’t hit their number.

But towards the end of the draft, upside is great because the ‘dependable’ players aren’t much better than the players available on the free agent wire.  So you might as well take a shot on someone sexy in the hopes they overdeliver knowing you can fall back on a dependable player via free agency.

You play it too safe, Rudy.  Flexibility.  Manage risk.   Blech.  Screw your mutual fund approach. I want to play the stock market.  Any recommendations?

While I think maximizing draft value is the best chance of winning a league, I admire someone who’s willing to roll the dice.  Gamble is my last name.

If you want to gamble by taking a lot of young ‘upside’ picks, go ahead.  It could work but I highly doubt it.

If you think you’re great at finding pitching bargains, go right ahead and wait until the 10^th round or so to draft pitchers.  Just realize that there will definitely be at least 1-2 drafters in your league already deploying that strategy which makes it tougher to win with this gambit (because of the increased competition for early hitters/late pitchers).

My gambit of choice would be to draft 2 pitchers in the 3^rd-5^th rounds – hopefully snagging 2 of the top 5 or 6 starters before an inevitable starting pitching run occurs.  In the next 5 rounds, get 2 premium closers and another SP.  Get at least two more closers before the end of the draft and some pitchers with solid Wins and K numbers.  The intent is to finish near the top in all 5 pitching categories.

While hitters are generally valued higher than pitchers, it is tougher to find hitter values but they are there.  I’d punt Catcher since you’re paying a premium for position scarcity and you want to focus on raw numbers to balance your pitcher-heavy draft.  I’d punt both 2B and SS until at least the double-digit rounds as there are much better values to be had later in the draft.   Throughout the draft, concentrate on everyday hitters with a likely shot of hitting 1^st through 5^th in the lineup – it doesn’t matter if they are on a bad team.  The reason for focusing on lineup position is that they are solid bets for 160+ Runs and RBIs.   Since power-speed players generally come at premiums,  mix and match hitters who come undervalued because they are particularly weak in a dimension – e.g., Adam Dunn (average) and Michael Bourn (power).  As the season goes on, trade closers to improve offensive numbers.

Will this strategy work?  Yeah, some of the time.  I wouldn’t recommend it over a more balanced draft but if it was a sure thing, they wouldn’t call it gambling…

TIERS

Tim Lincecum – There’s very little chance I have Lincecum on any of my teams, but if I do have him, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until around Wandy tier of the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab two guys from the flier tier of Cueto/Buchholz.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — a total flier in the Homer Bailey tier.  So Lincecum, Billingsley, Cueto, Anderson, Bailey and Sanchez.  This is a pretty wonky staff, but Lincecum gives you that flexibility.

“F-Her vs. Greinke,” “Don’t hate them because they’ve done it many times before.” and “These guys have a legitimate chance of being on my team.” — With the pitchers from these tiers, you don’t have the same luxury of Lincecum.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come before Hamels with anyone in the Hamels tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Haren I wouldn’t ignore Hamels (or anyone in his tier) if he fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either. So you could start your staff Hamels and Haren.  Then I’d take one guy from the Bills/Wandy tier.  So Hamels, Haren and Baker, for instance.  Then I’d take one guy from the Slowey/Cueto tier.  So Haren, Hamels, Baker and Ervin, possibly.  Then I’d skip below for the fifth starter.

If you get a pitcher from above Hamels on the rankings and don’t get someone from the Hamels tier as well, I would pair that pitcher with two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier.  So you’re looking at, possibly, Haren, Cain and Baker.  Or Verlander, Wandy, Bills.  Or Johan, Bills and Baker.  If you can’t get two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier, I’d go for one and two guys from the Cueto/Buchholz flier tier.  So, something like Haren, Bills, Cueto and Anderson.  If you do get two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier, then I’d take one from the flier tier.  So you’re looking at Haren, Wandy, Cain and Cueto.  I’ll get to the fifth starter in a second.  Remember, every team needs a sixth starter — Jonathan Sanchez.

“If I don’t get a pitcher from the previous tier, I’ll need someone from this tier.” — This tier starts with Hamels.  I would team Hamels with anyone in this tier, but then I’d skip to the Slowey/Cueto tier.  You draft Hamels and Johnson?  Then skip to Slowey/Cueto.  This is like a fantasy baseball Choose Your Own Adventure.  Hamels and Nolasco?  Skip to Slowey/Cueto.  In the Slowey/Cueto tier, I’d take two.  Hamels, Nolasco, de la Rosa and Slowey, for instance.

If you only get one from the Hamels tier, then I’d take two from the Bills/Wandy tier.  So Hamels, Bills and Wandy, for instance.  I’d then take one guy from the Cueto/Slowey tier.  So, possibly, Hamels, Bills, Burnett and Slowey.  See below for the fifth starter.

“I’m on board.” – If you were able to actually follow along in the last two sections, two points for you.  Now let’s assume you don’t take any starter until the Wandy/Bills tier.  Then I’d take two starters from the Wandy tier.  So let’s say Bills and Baker.  Then I’d take one from the Cueto/Buchholz flier tier.  So you now have Bills, Baker and Anderson.  This staff is five times wonky with a side of ulcer, so to finish it off I’d take Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, Correia or Penny, or some kind of vet stability.  So you’re hopefully looking at Bills, Baker, Anderson, Hudson, fifth starter to come and Filthy Sanchez.

The Fifth Starter – Before everyone takes Jonathan Sanchez, we need a fifth starter.  My suggestion is to take someone to complement your first pick’s risk.  If you went less risky by taking someone in the top 17 of the top 20 starters, then take a flier like, say, Mat Latos.  If you didn’t take anyone in the top 20, then take someone a little safer with your fifth starter, like, Harang or Penny.  If someone — anyone! — falls in the draft and becomes a value pick, take them.  If Oswalt falls for whatever reason, take him.  If Peavy falls, take him.  If Bedard’s sitting around in the 330s, take him.  The fifth starter is your wild card.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.26 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Bills, who I have projected for a 1.32, you need to pair him with someone I have projected for below a 1.26.  Don’t pair Bills with Wandy.  Don’t pair Bills with Price.  Pair Bills with Baker.  Pair him with Oswalt.  Pair him with Cliff Lee.  If you take Ubaldo (projected 1.27 WHIP) and Bills (projected 1.32 WHIP) where are you going to balance these guys?  Slowey and Wells?  Okay, but if you don’t get them, then you might need to scramble.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only two starters below a 1.26 WHIP and one of them might be a reliever this year (Hughes) and one is Randy Wolf.  There’s four pitchers in the top 80 and one of them is out a month to start the season (Lilly), one is Jurrjens and two of them will hurt you on Ks (Wells and Buehrle).  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.

Albert Pujols – Could really team him up with anyone, except another 1st baseman.  Preferably, I’d like to have Pujols and a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  Then on the turn you can grab an outfielder.  So Pujols, Zimmerman and Upton.  Yeah, that would be nice.

Hanley Ramirez – Again, you want just about anyone but Tulo, Reyes or Rollins.  Ideally, you want a big bat.  I.e., not Carl Crawford.  Someone that is going to get you 30+ homers.  Howard and Fielder will be gone, but A-Gon, Morneau, Zimmerman or even Votto should be there.  I’d consider J-Upside, but if I went that way I would definitely want another 30+ hitter sooner vs. later.

Chase Utley – No Kinsler or Phillips.  Since Utley is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed outfielder (Crawford), speed shorstop (Reyes, Rollins) or a power/speed outfielder (Sizemore, Upton).  He could work with a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman or even Tulo.  Shoot, Utley works with everyone.  Love you, Utley.  Write soon!

Alex Rodriguez – No 3rd basemen.  A-Rod is similar to Utley since he also gives you a decent amount of steals, you can put him with just about anyone.  Someone like Holliday would give you a nice balance.

Ryan Braun – I wouldn’t draft an outfielder next and I’d hesitate to draft a 1st baseman.  Ideally, I’d try for a shortstop (Tulo or Rollins), 2nd baseman (Kinsler, Phillips) or a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  The reason I’d hesitate on a 1st baseman is because it’s a deeper position and so is outfield, so you’d have two deep positions covered and no shallow ones.  I wouldn’t kick Braun and Votto out of bed, but Braun/Zimmerman looks better.

Mark Teixeira/Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard – Similarly to Braun, I’d avoid a 1st baseman and hesitate on an outfielder.  Ideally, you’d have some combo of one of those 1st basemen and Wright, Longoria, Kinsler or Tulo.

Matt Kemp – Since he’s not as safe with the power as Braun, I’d take a 1st baseman with Kemp.  I’d also look at taking a bat at a weaker position (Tulo, Kinsler, Wright).  I’d avoid guys who bring their value with speed (Reyes, Crawford, Ellsbury).

Evan Longoria – Anything but a 3rd baseman.  Since his speed’s a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with Sizemore.  Holliday would also work nicely since Longoria’s average is a bit weak.

Tim Lincecum – You have to have a big bat at 1st base if you’re going to take Lincecum.  If you can’t get Howard, Fielder, Miggy or Tex, skip Lincecum altogether and go for Wright as your first pick.

David Wright – Since he hit, what, 2 homers last year, I’d want a power guy at a weak position to be paired with Wright or a power guy at 1st base.  Think Tulo and Wright.  That’s nice.  Think Wright and Howard.  That sounds like the best pairing since my tilapia, Mad Dog 20/20 pairing last night.

The top 3 options at catcher last year, who still have eligibility this year, are Mauer, Martinez and McCann.  (Wieters might have to flip his W over to keep with the theme.)  After those guys we have Suzuki, Posada, Montero, A.J. and Napoli.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Suzuki, Montero and A.J.), one guy who went in the last rounds of drafts (Posada) and one guy who I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Clement and Jesus Flores ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2010, I’d say, “I told you Iannetta was a good bargain,” and I’d ask if I used, “The Resurrection of Jesus Flores” as a post title.  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up those little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  Bengie Molina.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts this Flying Molina Brother until around the 15th round.  His stats last year were 52/20/80/.265.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 88/23/108/.303/1; he gets drafted 23rd overall, according to Mock Draft Central.  The difference between the two was 36/3/28, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  With Adrian Gonzalez, who gets drafted right around V-Mart’s spot, vs. Jorge Cantu, a 1st baseman around Bengie’s spot, the difference is 24 homers.  A shortstop comparison would be Rollins vs. Yunel.  A pitcher comparison would be F-Her vs. Ryan Dempster.  At catcher, you can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

Runs – 1,067

The average team last year scored 1,047 Runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in Runs.  To win your league, it took 1,159 Runs with the average player contributing 89 Runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 20.39 Runs.  So 20 runs on top of 1,047 Runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in Runs.  So I would aim for 1,067 Runs or 82 Runs/player.

Home Runs — 277

The average team hit 262 homers.  To win, you needed 304 homers or 23 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 7.5 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 15 homers from 262 or 277 homers or 21 homers/player.

RBIs — 1,036

The average team needed 1,016 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,128 or 87 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 20.37 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 1,036 RBIs or 80 RBIs/player.

Steals — 168

The average team needed 153 steals.  To win, you had to get 208 or 16 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.02 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 168 steals or 13 steals/player.

Average — .277

The average team’s, uh, average is .277.  To win, you had to get a .290.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .0314.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .277 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,165

The average team’s Ks are 1,065.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,238 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 31.47 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,165 Ks or 129 Ks/pitcher.

Wins — 77

The average team’s pitchers won 77 games.  To win, you needed to win 92.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 2.84 games.  (Jason Marquis is good for at least two .84 wins.)  I go for average here, which is 77 games or 9 wins/pitcher.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 117

The average team’s relievers close out 87 games.  To win, you needed 133 saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 8.52 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed an extra 30 saves from average or 117 saves or 39 saves from 3 closers or 29 from 4 closers.

ERA — 3.80

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.91 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.31 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .11.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.80 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.25

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.30 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.20 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .02.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.25 WHIP.

The final (and humbling) results are below.  8 of the 20  pitchers or 40% of the pitchers dropped below 2,000 pitches or had an xFIP increase above 0.50.  40% sounds pretty good until you realize that about 40% of all pitchers coming off 2,700+ pitch seasons fall into one of these two categories the next year.  Basically, my predictions were as successful as picking the names out of Kevin Mench’s ginormous hat.

Now I could try and make it look better by changing the criteria and saying my warnings of Nolasco saved teams of a 5.00+ ERA or a disappointing first half from Scott Baker but that wouldn’t be right.  For every Nolasco (1.50+ ERA jump but a negative xFIP), there’s an AJ Burnett whose ERA was flat while his xFIP went over the 0.50 mark (note:  you’d think this could be explained by the move to the new Yankee Stadium but his ERA was actually a run better at home vs away – 3.51 vs. 4.59).  To add insult to injury, two of the selections (Vazquez and Greinke) turned out to be in the top 5 of our ‘best draft values‘ according to our Point Shares and their average ADP.

So f0r this post, a wiser and humbler Rudy Gamble will take another stab at the analysis.  A future post will lay out 20 more predictions for 2010.

First off, there are a few aspects of the analysis that I think can be improved:

1. Throw out any pitchers that met the 2,700 pitch marker but put up high numbers (5.00+ xFIP).   This takes out a few players like Daniel Cabrera who aren’t going to be drafted anyway.
2. Throw out any pitchers older than 37.  The reasons why a Randy Johnson or John Smoltz missed time in 2009 is most likely different than the factors that would affect a 27-year old.
3. Assume international pitchers like Dice-K and Kuroda had a similar pitch count the prior year (rather than credit them with a huge pitch increase).
4. Increase the xFIP change from 0.50 to 0.75 to reduce the number of seasons that wouldn’t be viewed as a fantasy disappointment (e.g., CC Sabathia saw a 0.72 increase in FIP in 2009 but his 19-8/3.37/1.15 season was as good as any fantasy owner could rightfully expect).

With this revised ‘falloff’ definition, the amount of seasons that qualify move from ~40% to 27% (between 26-27% for 2005, 2008, and 2009 with an odd jump in 2006 to 36% and decline in 2007 to 16%).  This represents 94 of 349 seasons between 2005-2009 with 72 fell below 2,000 pitches and another 22 had a +0.75 FIP increase.

The criteria we established last year after various tests were:

1. 27+% of Sliders and Curveballs the year prior
2. 700+ pitch increase the year prior (vs. the year before that) – inspired by the ‘Verducci Effect’
3. Previous year was the first year above the 2,700+ MLB pitch threshold in 2008

Let’s revisit these assumptions based on some questions I had after the first analysis:

Revisiting pitch types

After my initial analysis, I exchanged a few messages with Disabled List Informer (an AWESOME resource for understanding player injuries) who ranked sliders as a greater injury risk than curveballs.  I tested all pitch types again by comparing the averages of 2004-2008 seasons preceding dropoff vs. non-dropoff seasons in 2005-2009.

It appears sliders are negative indicators (11% more thrown in seasons preceding dropoff seasons) but there is no indication that curveballs are.  Cut fastballs and split-finger fastballs are too small a percentage of pitches to take away any significance from this analysis.  I did a subsequent analysis isolating pitchers who threw 10+% cut fastballs and split-finger fastballs.  There were 42 seasons of 10+% cut fastballs which were succeeded by 12 falloff seasons.  The 28% falloff rate almost exactly matches the average rate of 27% so we’ll rule out cut fastballs as a variable.  Only 19 pitching seasons saw 10+% split finger fastballs (Roger Craig – the pitching coach not the 49er – sheds a tear) and 7 of those seasons were Dan Haren or Kelvim Escobar so I’m not going to make any conclusions on that given lack of sample.

Fastballs and changeups appear to be mild positive indicators.  When I isolated pitchers who threw a below average % of Fastballs and Changeups, the results were promising for indicating potential falloff candidates.  But after taking out those with a high % of sliders, the remaining seasons came in about average.  So we’ll be taking curveballs out of the equation and focusing on sliders thrown as an indicator.

Below are the dropoff rates of those throwing sliders as 15, 20, and 25+ of their pitches indexed against the overall rate (27%).  We can see that the higher the slider rate, the higher the percentage of dropoffs.  That said, even at 25+%, the dropoff rate is only 35% (which is 32% more likely than a random pitcher).  The fact that CC Sabathia threw 25% sliders in 2009 doesn’t really give me any pause in drafting him.

Perhaps a stronger argument for not using this one statistic alone is isolating pitchers who threw 15% sliders but they didn’t have a 700+ pitch spike in the previous year nor was it their first year > 2,500+ pitches (loosening this up vs the previous 2,700+ pitches).  Of the 106 seasons that fit that description, 28 had falloffs or 26.4%.  So basically an experienced slider pitcher is no more likely to have a dropoff than the average pitcher.  In retrospect, this line of thinking would’ve taken Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, and Scott Baker off last year’s dropoff list.

Player Age

I was curious to see if my initial heralding of a ‘700+ pitch increase’ and ‘first year above 2,700+ MLB pitches’ were just hiding an age-related skew – e.g., younger pitchers are more likely to drop off than players in their prime years.

Below is a distribution of all pitching seasons by age indexed against the 27% rate seen across all 21-37 year old pitchers.  As you can see, there is no rhyme or reason here.  I’m not reading into that dip at 27 given that 26 and 28 overindex.  So scrap player age as a consideration.

700+ Pitch Spike

This criterion was inspired by the ‘Verducci Effect’ which theorizes that pitchers with a 40+ IP increase year over year is more at risk for injuries the next year.  His theory seemed to have a level of success over the years although last year’s predictions – based on my dropoff criteria – were subpar.  The only big dropoff on the list was from the worst (or 2nd worst) pitcher on the list (Eveland) and John Danks and Jonathan Niese are marginal cases.

(Quick Update:  SI.com just posted Tom Verducci’s ‘Verducci Effect‘ 10 for ‘10 today.  I really like his work on SI and MLB.  But my first allegiance is with Fantasy Baseballers so I need to point out that his success metric of ‘year without injury and with a lower ERA’ is a rather low bar.  How low?  Of the 349 pitcher seasons of 21-37 years olds following years of 2700+ pitches and < 5.00 FIP in 2004-2008 (translation:  generally healthy years with a modicum of success), a full 60% of them saw a decrease in their FIP the next year.  I’m assuming ERA follows the same path.  Of the remaining 137 pitcher seasons, another 58 saw < 3,000 pitches thrown (a liberal proxy for no injuries as a healthy seasons is about 32 starts/3200+ pitches).  Net result:  23% (79 of 349) of all pitchers might ’succeed’ based on his criteria.  So his 4-for-34 (12%) stat – which sounds amazing -  is a little bit like taking credit for predicting a Jersey Shore character might do something embarrassing in an episode.)

Based on my new dropoff criteria, 38 of 112 (33.9%) seasons following a 700+ pitch spike saw a dropoff.  This is a 126 index which is better than the 15% slider threshold.  BUT if we isolate this criteria from the others (< 15% sliders and not the first year with 2,500+ pitches), it results in 6 of 22 seasons or 27%.  So this factor alone isn’t a good predictor.  Note that none of the 20 risky pitchers I picked last year fit only the 700+ pitch spike criteria.

(Note:  It is possible this could be improved by factoring in minor league pitches as well.  It’s a big pain to cobble together the stats for all the minor league divisions though and only innings pitched are available.)

First Season Above 2,500+ Pitches (in MLB)

This is the rarest of the three criteria with 78 seasons (or 22% of all seasons) and 34.6% of the instances (27) followed with a dropoff season.  This 129 index slightly edges out the other two criteria.  Isolating this criteria is near impossible as it almost always occurs with a 700+ pitch spike – only 2 cases have occurred in the past 4 years.  But as the next section will show, it does seem to do a good job of isolating the riskier players who satisfy one of the other two criteria.

Testing 2+ of the Criteria

As noted above, while it appears that each criteria by itself is a positive indicator, isolating it from the other criteria saps it of any power.

The below chart shows the various combinations of the three criteria.  A combination of 2+ of the criteria nets a 34% dropoff rate (index 128) and all three criteria nets 40.6% (index 151).

If I had just limited my risky pitcher selections to only those that fit 2 criteria, Vazquez, Lilly, and Baker could’ve been replaced by Edinson Volquez (first MLB year with 2,500+ pitches and 700+ pitch spike), Manny Parra (same two criteria) and either Backe or Redding (whom I noted as risks) and netted a respectable 11-for-20 (with Greinke and Lester being painful selections).

Here is a breakdown of the 19 pitchers that qualified as a falloff with the # of criteria they met.  8 of the 19 (42%) fit 2+ criteria while 26 of the 73 (35.6%) overall fit the criteria (index: 118):

Final point for this section:  Of the 32 seasons that qualify for the trifecta, the ‘dropoff’ rate was 11-for-24 in 2005-2008 (46%) but only 2-for-8 in 2009 (25%).  Andy Sonnanstine (whom was on my list) and Brandon Backe (who was noted but not put on because he wasn’t likely to be drafted) were the two players in 2009 that fit the bill.     Todd Wellemeyer (2,117 pitches/0.72 xFIP increase),  Armando Galarraga (2,453 pitches,  0.53 xFIP increase), and John Lannan (0.41 xFIP increase) did see regression with Ricky Nolasco, Johnny Cueto, and Gavin Floyd were able to maintain or progress.  Just goes to show that even the highest indexing predictor can be ineffective for a season given its small sample.

That’s it for now.  In the next post, I’ll list out the 20 riskiest pitchers to not draft based on these criteria.

Jorge de la Rosa – 1.89.  Member what I said two sentences ago about trading for these guys?  Yeah, ignore that for this guy.  He’s a very risky starter.  Caveat Jorge.

Carl Pavano – 1.63.  Has a 5.73 ERA and a 4.10 FIP.  Hmm… Are these buy lows?  Or just “Continue to Ignores?”  Good question, Razzball reader.  I’m ignoring Pavano.

Andy Sonnanstine – 1.25.  These FIP lists never work out the way I want them too.  I’m not going after Sonnanstine either.

Francisco Liriano – 1.09.  How does that quote go?  Best intentions is a dish best served without any intentions?  Is that it?  Yeah, Liriano’s sitting on a 4.82 FIP.  So he’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s still not good.

Justin Verlander – 1.05.  Wow, he has a 3.39 ERA and a 2.34 FIP, while striking out almost 11 batters per nine.  I know, Greinke, Greinke, Greinke… but Verlander could win the Cy Young this year.  Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…

Jon Lester – .95.  Over 10 K/9 and under 3 BB/9.  Then throw in a team that will give him run support.  Lester!

Scott Baker – .92. There were some trying times early on for Baker’s owners, but his June has been terrific.  He’s still an injury risk, but I’d own him at this point.

Joel Pineiro – .86.  Ignoreio.

Gavin Floyd – .85. Has a 3.80 FIP, which makes him someone that’s worth being on your team rather than waivers.

Javier Vazquez – .75.  Could be below a 3 ERA right now… If only Cox could pull him from the game in, say, the 6th then pitch him again in the 7th.