Suddenly, you’re burning up like you just chugged a bottle of Emeril’s Creole Seasoning.  Worse, you have cotton mouth and have no time to go to the sink.  Outside, it’s raining.  Then “Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink…” starts playing on loop in your head.  Over and over again like a Lady Gaga song chorus.  You look up at the draft timer and you have 30 seconds left.  You look at the reflection of yourself in your framed supposed-to-be-ironic poster that reads, “The glass is half empty, deal with it” and you begin to sob.  Not happy “I just won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar” sobs, but sad “Please let me out of your van; I don’t want my skin to be made into a suit” sobs.  With three seconds left, you draft Chris Johnson.

Immediately, everyone in the draft room begins to mock you.  Nice reach, I think Matt Stairs is still available for your corner!… Hey, I didn’t know Ed Wade’s toupee was drafting with us!…  You suck! And, with that, you open the window to your bedroom and jump out.  Luckily, you live on the first floor and only bruise your ankle.  You limp back through the house, ignore your Mom’s take-out-the-freakin’-garbage complaints, sit back down at your computer and zombie your way through the rest of the draft.  Only half paying attention because you know you screwed up the Johnson pick.

It was a reach.  You probably could’ve took Johnson a few rounds later.  But it’s not the ruination of your draft.  Reaching is a part of drafting.  If you’re not reaching for guys that you want then you might not know which guys you want.  You don’t want to reach every single round, but sometimes it’s not only appropriate but it’s necessary.  Wouldn’t you rather have a guy you want in the 9th round or a guy you don’t want in the 16th?  Draw an emoticon on your hand and learn to smile again.  It’ll be all right.

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on the DL and that’s fine because then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as a player nurses his hammy day-to-day.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida Kahlo used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Carlos Gonzalez is overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want J.J. Putz and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $6 and the bidding’s just gone to $7, go to $8 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Arencibia, Iannetta, Putz, Nathan or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $10 on Espinosa and you get him for $11, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Espinosa after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get Raburn, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum. No Halladay. No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d smoke a bowl with Lincecum and then tease Sandoval that we could eat whatever we wanted, but I wouldn’t draft him.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.   I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Longoria or Teixeira or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Bell, Rivera, Soria… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick! And why am I not wearing pants?! For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.   You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one. Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Ty Wigginton last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.   You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Ty Wigginton on your bench when there’s a hot hitting Josh Willingham on waivers.   Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.   Or grab a starter.  (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.   If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Danny Espinosa?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Morrow? No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Cueto or Edwin Jackson?  I’m taking Cueto.  Carlos Zambrano or James Shields?  I’m going Zambrano.  Morrow or Colby Lewis?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Morrow.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would also be ideal, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get A-Rod or Zimmerman.  Youuuuuuuuk would be available in my fantasy fantasy world and have 3rd base eligibility at the start of the season, but getting Youuuuuuk might not be realistic either.  What is realistic is Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen.  Miggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Kinsler, Pedroia, Phillips or Reyes would also work.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter, you should be fine.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals.

Hanley Ramirez – You want just about anyone but a shortstop or 2nd baseman.  Ideally, you want a big bat.  I.e., not someone like Carl Crawford.  You want someone that is going to get you 30+ homers.  Howard and Fielder are gone according to my rankings, but they may not be in Yahoo, CBS or ESPN’s fantasy fantasy world.  If they’re there (stutterer!), I like them with Hanley like a fat kid likes cake.  In a best case scenario, I’d have a 1B or 3B teamed with Hanley.  An outfielder is fine, but you’re gonna be behind the eight ball filling out your infield later on.  If you can pinkie swear me you’ll grab Adam Dunn with Hanley, then take an outfielder.

Evan Longoria – Anyone but a 3rd baseman.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Tulo and Cano.)  Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Youuuuuk would also work nicely since Longoria’s average is a bit weak.  Someone like Kinsler or Phillips aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Shin-Soo isn’t a terrible guy with Longoria either.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but you can work with just about anything.

Ryan Braun – I wouldn’t draft an outfielder next.  Ideally, I’d try for a 3rd baseman, 1st baseman, 2nd baseman or a shortstop, in that order.  I wouldn’t kick Braun and Fielder or Braun and Howard out of bed, but Braun/Zimmerman looks better.

David Wright – Similar to Longoria, but with where Longoria’s potential pitfalls could be average and steals, Wright’s a potential power problem.  I’d want a power guy.  Think Wright and Howard or Fielder.  That sounds like the best pairing since my tilapia, Mad Dog 20/20 pairing last night.

Ryan Howard – Obviously if I’d take Wright and Howard, I’d also take Howard and Wright.  See how that works?  Since Howard is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy, but he’s more of an average issue so I’d be careful about guys like Kemp, Kinsler or Phillips.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed outfielder (Crawford) or a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, Upton).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, Crawford, you may only get around 40 homers combined from your first two picks while Howard can produce that by himself.

Prince Fielder – Same story as Ryan Howard, but he’s slightly less of an average issue so I’d pair him with Kemp, Kinsler or Phillips, as well.

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Chase Utley – No Kinsler or Phillips.  Similarly to Tulo, since Utley is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed outfielder (Crawford), speed shortstop (Reyes) or a power/speed outfielder (McCutchen, Upton).  He could also work with a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  Shoot, Utley works with everyone.  Love you, Utley.  Write soon!

The top 4 options at catcher last year were Mauer, Martinez, Posey and McCann.  There’s one waiver wire pick-up there.  After those guys, we have Buck, Napoli, Olivo, Soto and Ruiz.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Buck, Olivo and Ruiz), two guys who were drafted late in drafts (Soto and Napoli) and one of those guys I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Saltalamacchia and Arencibia ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2011, I’d say, “I told you Salty, Iannetta and Arencibia were good bargains.”  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up your little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  John Buck.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts The Midnight Cowboy until around the 18th round.  His stats last year were 53/20/66/.281.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 64/20/79/.302/1.  V-Mart gets drafted 29th overall.  The difference between the two was 11 Runs, 13 RBIs, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  Instead of V-Mart, you could draft F-Her.  Whereas instead of John Buck, you could draft Kevin Slowey.  Oh.  Okay.  Those are even.  A first baseman comparison would be instead of V-Mart, you take Adam Dunn.  At Buck’s spot, you draft Gaby Sanchez.  Huge difference there, too.  A shortstop comparison would be Reyes vs. Scutaro.  Another huge difference.  At catcher, there’s hardly any difference.  You can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

TIERS

“The best, Jerry.  The best!” and “Top starters that I’m wary of.” – These tiers are from Halladay to Sabathia.  There’s very little chance I have anyone in either of these tiers.  If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Haren tier of the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Marcum/Daniel Hudson and one guy from the flyer tier of Chacin.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Minor or Zimmermann.  So F-Her, Scherzer, Marcum, Chacin, Vazquez and Zimmermann.  That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.

“I’m going to have one of these guys on my team,” “I would draft one of these guys, but I think others will take them first” and “If I failed to get a pitcher in the Lester tier, I absolutely need one from this tier.” —

These tiers go from Lester to Greinke.  With the pitchers from these tiers, you don’t have the same luxury of Halladay’s tier.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Lester and Greinke with anyone in the Hamels tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Lester, I wouldn’t ignore Hamels (or anyone in his tier) if he fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either.  You’ll be fine taking Lester and moving right into the top 40 starters.  So let’s say you start your staff with Lester and Oswalt because he falls to you, you should skip right to Marcum.  Again, if someone from Haren’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point.  So if you have Lester, Oswalt, Marcum, you jump to Chacin’s tier and grab two pitchers.  (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.)  So that leaves you with Lester, Oswalt, Marcum, Chacin, Morrow and Mike Minor.  Great looking staff, or so says Gosh Johnson, Josh’s porn star brother.

Now, if you draft someone from Lester’s tier but don’t take another starter until the top 40 starters post, that works too.  You take Kershaw then two guys from Haren’s tier, so Kershaw, Scherzer and Billingsley.  If that fails to happen, you take Kershaw, a guy from Haren’s tier and two guys from Marcum’s tier, so Kershaw, Cain, Marcum and Daniel Hudson.  If that doesn’t happen, you take Kershaw, one guy from Haren’s tier, one guy from Marcum’s tier and two guys from Chacin’s tier.  So Kershaw, Cain, Marcum, Chacin and Morrow.  Now if you have the first scenario — Kershaw, Scherzer and Billingsley — you then take two pitchers in Chacin’s tier.  If you have the 2nd scenario — Kershaw, Cain, Marcum and Daniel Hudson — you take one pitcher from Chacin’s tier.  Oh, and remember, every team needs a sixth starter — Mike Minor or Jordan Zimmermann.

“Kinda boring, but reliable number three starters.” and “Not bad options, but I see no upside.” — This tier goes from Lilly to Dempster in the top 40 starters and Danks to Shields in the top 60 starters post.  These are number three and four starters if — and this “if” has its own solar system — you somehow Mr. Bungle getting a number two starter or you feel like your staff is wonky as all get-out.  For instance, you have Kershaw then you go on an insane hitting run and don’t grab another pitcher until Jorge de la Rosa.  That means you’ve skipped the entire top 40 starters post.  At that point, I’d grab someone from Lilly’s tier.  Or if you’ve grabbed Hamels, Cain and Marcum and start worrying that your team has one guy who gives up homers, another who has a FIP’ing problem and another guy who had a poor April last year and you just want some stability, then you grab someone in Danks’ tier.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.25 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Gio Gonzalez, who I have projected for a 1.28, you need to pair him with someone I have projected for below a 1.25.  Don’t pair Gio with Wandy.  Don’t pair Gio with Dempster.  Pair Gio with Kuroda.  Pair him with Hanson.  Pair him with Cain.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only three starters below a 1.25 WHIP.  There’s four pitchers in the top 80 and two of them are Peavy and Johan and who knows when they’re pitching.  The other two are Hellickson and Travis Wood, who I like but they’re not completely trustworthy.  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

Yovani Gallardo – I love Gallardo; I have his projected WHIP down for 1.24.  That’s optimistic because I am high on him this year.  All meanings of the word “high” work for that last sentence.  But I know I’m being optimistic so I would try to balance his WHIP out with another pitcher.  Say, Kuroda or Lilly.  Say, Tim Hudson or Matt Cain.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.  For further reading on that subject, see Mat Latos’ 2010.

Runs – 1,021

The average team last year scored 998 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs.  To win your league, it took 1,124 runs with the average hitter contributing 86.5 runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 22.80 runs.  So 23 runs on top of 998 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs.  So I would aim for 1,021 runs or 79 runs/player.

Home Runs — 255

The average team hit 235 homers.  To win, you needed 291 homers or 22.4 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10.19 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 235 or 255 homers or 20 homers/player.

RBIs — 973

The average team needed 948 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,083 or 83.6 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24.4 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 973 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.

Steals — 177

The average team needed 150 steals.  To win, you had to get 208 or 16 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.5 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 177 steals or 14 steals/player.

Average — .271

The average team’s, uh, average is .271.  To win, you had to get a .284.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .271 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,272

The average team’s Ks are 1,149.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,342 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 34.99 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,272 Ks from my pitching staff.

Wins — 86

The average team’s pitchers won 86 games.  To win, you needed to win 104 .  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3.23 games.  (Any Astro pitcher is good for at least four .23 wins.)  I go for average here, which is 86 games.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 122

The average team’s relievers closed out 87 games.  To win, you needed 142  saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.02 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed 122 saves.

ERA — 3.56

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.64 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.18 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.56 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.23

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.26 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.18 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.23 WHIP.

Tommy Hanson – 9.68 K/9.  I just went over him in a roundup last week.  I’m still not completely convinced he’s going to avoid setbacks, but for the right price I’d put some of that my hand, son.

Clayton Kershaw – 9.61 K/9.  Has the 7th best K/9 and a 5+ BB/9, which is incredibly bad.  In his young career, Kershaw seems like he needs to audit Pitch Management 101.

Jered Weaver – 9.92 K/9.  Throwing his curveball a lot more this year has bumped his K-rate up by more than 2 per inning and has batters swinging and missing at pitches outside the strike zone by 7% more.  Meanwhile, his brother, Jeff cries himself to sleep.

James Shields – His K/9 in 2009 was 6.84, his K/9 this year is 9.22.  What the flippin’ frack is going on?

Tom Gorzelanny – K/9 is 9.23, which is excellent.  Might be the first time I’ve mentioned Gorzelanny in a positive light this year.  Just hard for me to get behind reclamation projects.  I’m like the Councilman in that scene of Treme where Big Chief… *snooze*  Wait, is the episode over?  What happened in that scene where… *snooze*  At this point, I just hope Treme doesn’t ruin my future re-watchings of The Wire.  Anyhoo, Gorzelanny might get bumped for Big Z, so I’d put my excitement on simmer.

Ricky Romero – 9.48 K/9.  Still going to have some terrible matchups, and I have my doubts if he can continue at the pace he’s on, but definitely worth owning and starting just about everywhere.

Colby Lewis – 9.10 K/9.  He was terrible in the US, then he found himself in Japan and returned to find success here.  Colby is a Survivor!  His xFIP is 3.99 and I think in his home park in the summer he might be lucky to keep it that low, but the Ks are definitely there.

Felipe Paulino – 8.59 K/9.  Yeah, that’s nice, but his walk rate is 5.26, which even beats BBershaw.

Phil Hughes – 8.88 K/9.  Top Yankee strikeout pitcher by a huge margin with CC coming in with a 6.75.  BTW, Halladay has a 6.90 K/9, way down from last year, which is almost as odd as what Shields is doing.

Justin Masterson – 8.81 K/9.  His walk rate is bad at 4.98, but his xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA because his BABIP is an insane .405.  I know numbers make your brain hurt, so I’ll say this.  In theory, he should be a lot better, but so should deep-fried Twinkies but, in the end, they just taste like greasy batter.  Wait, greasy batter’s delicious!

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on DL and that’s fine cause then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as Chipper nurses his hammy.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.