What other people probably will NOT do, is SHOW you what Stanton can do and how freakin’ cool his shizz is. Haha! HA!  Sorry, I lost it for a second.  Below is a diagram of Giancarlo Stanton’s HRs from 2010 and 2011 based on data from hittrackeronline.com and park info from the interwebs. The Marlins Park walls are outlined, along with foul lines, distance tickers, the whole shebang… The light colored dots are dongs from 2010, the fully opaque dots 2011 bombs. The blue dots are away dingers, the red dots home, homers on the range in Sun Life Stadium, and the annoying little piggy on TV went “Wee, whee, whee!” all the way back into your memory. Wait for it…

Ain’t that a pretty cupcake with little, patriotic jimmies on top? As I’ve commented before, the new Marlins Park is roughly comparable to Petco in physical dimension (read: BIG). I’ve not seen official documentation of the wall heights, but from the photos it sure looks like more than 8 feet, unless your tape uses Stanton feet. It appears to be mostly around a dozen human feet, but slopes up from the right side power alley to as high as 20. Where? Right out in the deepest part of center by the wacky, leaping Marlin homer sculpture. While we can’t be sure what effect the wind (or lack thereof) may have when the roof’s open (or closed), we can get a rough idea how he might have fared playing in this new park.

In 2010, there’s one that probably would have been an out to left in the new park. The others look like they should have been smooth sailing.  In 2011, we see one more likely out to left, while the duo to straight away center probably would’ve been doubles. Another pair are pretty close on the lower walls to left and right, but the rest are golden with no Teal Monster staring down left center.

All in all, he might’ve lost as many HRs as Antonio Alfonseca can count on one hand; a few doubled down and a few loud outs. He also pulled less in 2011, so that could be trouble for center field shots. But, and in Miami you’ll see lots of those, you’ll also notice the darker dots trend further out than the lighter ones. If the majority of these people and me are right about Giancarlo, I’m pretty certain we’ll get to see wacky, leaping marlins aplenty in 2012.

Why is this the case?  Here are some theories…

1. Hitters have more perceived (and maybe actual) reliability than starting pitchers.
2. The possibility that a hitter could provide value across 5 categories increases their perceived value vs. starting pitchers who could only contribute in 4 categories.  (Note:  Only 11 hitters were at least average in all 5 categories according to 12-team 2011 Point Shares (which factors position) - Kemp, Ellsbury, Braun, Bautista, Pujols, Pedroia, Upton, Votto, CarGo, Gordon, Francoeur)
3. Most fantasy baseball writers/experts primarily play deeper league formats like AL/NL-only where playing time becomes an additional variable favoring hitters.  (e.g., worst case, you can always fill a pitching spot with a middle reliever whereas there are a finite amount of hitters who get 3+ games a week).  This influenced early adopters of 12-team mixed leagues and had a snowball effect on ADPs.
4. A perception that starting pitchers are easier to a) pick up via free agency and/or b) draft in bulk or stream pitchers and play the match-ups.
5. It’s a clear preference of fantasy baseball participants who feel more confident in their ability to successfully draft late-round pitchers and pitchers off waivers.

For this post, I’m going to focus on point #1 but I might do a follow-up post to focus on #4 (which I think has some merit – PARTICULARLY the ‘b’ point).

I am also going to focus on the ESPN default roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P) for this post but it should translate very well to two catcher leagues as well.  This is the first year I’ve estimated Point Shares for the standard Yahoo! format so I can only theorize what the best mix would be for that format.

Lastly, it is a lot easier describing this hitter/pitcher mix for auction leagues vs. snake drafts.  By converting draft picks into auction dollars, however, we can handle both draft formats at once.

So here’s the question I’m trying to solve:

For 12-team MLB leagues, do hitters provide more reliability than pitchers and, if so, what would be the optimal hitter/pitcher investment during the draft to exploit any opponent draft bias?

The most well-known hitter/pitcher ratio is $180 hitter /$80 pitcher which – in the ESPN format – represents about $26 shifted from pitchers to hitters (13/22*260=$153.63).  This tends to be the average in expert AL/NL-only leagues – for instance, the 2012 AL LABR ended up with a $182.50 average and $181.50 median hitter investment (note: that’s a 2 catcher league where the average 2nd catcher got $4).  FWIW, our 2011 NL-only LABR draft was a $179/$81 mix.

The closest ‘expert league’ format to the 12-team MLB format is the 15-team MLB format.  The 2011 Tout Wars mixed league averaged $178 for hitters so the $180/$80 ratio seems to hold true.

Interestingly, when I converted the current ADP for ESPN and Yahoo to auction dollars, both ended up with a 167/93 hitter/pitcher mix.  The 2011 Razzball Commenter League ADP came out to 178/82.  So, consciously or not, the average ESPN/Yahoo snake drafter invests more in pitchers than the average auction drafter.

To test the  optimal hitter/pitcher mix, I did the following:

• Took my preseason projected Point Shares for 2010 and 2011.
• Adjusted the auction dollar estimates based on the following mixes:  153/106 (even), 160/100, 165/95, 170/90, 175/85, 180/80, and 2011 Razzball Commenter League ADP.  Re-ranked based on those adjusted $ figures.
• Created a weight for every draft pick based on the $ estimates observed in preseason data (to avoid over-crediting top picks because no one could predict a season like 2011 Matt Kemp)
• Multiplied each weight against the estimated $ value for each player based on 2010/2011 end of year Point Shares.  Any player with negative value for the year – either because of injury or incompetence – was credited with a zero.  I tried two different weights – one proportional to the ranking (20.0 for #1, 19.9 for #2….0.1 for #200) and one that mirrors auction $ proportions ($40 for #1…$5 for #200)
• Added up these weighted $ values for the top 200 players.

For instance, let’s say Albert Pujols was the #1 pick, was worth $35 based on end of year Point Shares, and the 1st pick receives a weight of 20.0.  Player ‘Barely Rosterable’ was worth $2 and was the 200th pick in the draft which receives a 0.1 weight.  Pujols would be worth $700 ($35*20) to the end sum whereas ‘Barely Rosterable’ would only contribute 20 cents ($2*0.1).  This might seem extreme but it ensures that rankings that projects a valuable player earlier in the draft should be credited more and vice versa when non-valuable players are ranked earlier.

This test does not factor in real-world drafting – just testing how successful each of the hitter/pitcher-weighted rankings perform based on league parameters.

Here are the summarized results:

*ADP is based on Mock Draft Central for 2010 and Razzball Commenter Leagues for 2011.

While I’m not sure these results are statistically significant, the success of the even hitter/pitcher split (154/106) vs. the extreme hitter/pitcher splits (175-180 hitter/85-90 pitcher) at least directionally refutes the theory that hitters provide more reliability.

It is more difficult to determine the optimal draft strategy for a real-like 12-team MLB draft given draft room dynamics.  The biggest challenge with 154/106 is that you constantly have SPs at the top of your draft board.  Even if Justin Verlander warrants a 1st round pick, you will get less value than if you can get him in the 2nd round or a comparable pitcher in the 3rd round.  (Here’s a recent post I read that goes into more detail on the topic of market vs. performance value in fantasy baseball.).

I have found that for 12-14 team MLB leagues, a 165/95 split provides the best balance of market and performance value.  This works best in auction leagues as it delivers not only a strong pitching staff but the fairly conservative hitter $ values help provide discipline in early rounds when some drafters pay premiums for top hitters, resulting in strong hitter bargains later in drafts.  The above would also hold true for snake drafts where drafters skew heavily towards hitters.

For typical snake drafts – where ADP seems to be indicating a more moderate skew towards hitters – I think you can succeed with just about any hitter/pitcher mix – as long as you are getting value with each draft pick.  (I still prefer 165/95.)  If you’re going 180/80, you can’t then exceed your already inflated hitter auction values/rankings and you have to be really disciplined in your pitcher selections.  I’ve also found that some fantasy baseball players feel more confident in finding waiver wire value in certain positions.  I think this is fine to factor into how you weight your hitter/pitcher mix but realize that the positions that seem to have the most depth on the waiver wire (OF, SP, RP) are also the ones where you will face the most competition (since there are more roster spots for these players).  My preference is to find positions where there will be little waiver competition – 2B/SS/3B and C in one-catcher leagues seem to be the best.

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on the DL and that’s fine because then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Rickie Weeks on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as a player nurses his hammy day-to-day.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Bourn or Nyjer Morgan et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Bourn one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Mike Carp’s match-ups this week.  Then, as CT from MTV’s The Challenge used to say, carpe diem and grab a different player off waivers.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors with nonsense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

Since some fantasy baseball leagues allow you to exchange/trade draft picks (and I’ve gotten various related questions throughout the years), I built the below cheat sheet using the average projected auction values for players who ranked within the draft range – e.g., $36 under MLB 10 team for picks 1-5 was derived by averaging the top 5 dollar values on the 2012 10-team Point Shares (http://razzball.com/2012-point-shares-10-team-mlb-espn-roster/).

Notes:

• These values are the same regardless of Roto vs. H2H
• ESPN = C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9P, Yahoo!=C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/8 SP, AL/NL-only is ESPN format with a 2nd catcher
• For keeper leagues, there are a number of variables that would need accounting for including: 1) number of keepers, 2) are they dollars or draft picks, etc.  If you put a gun to my head and asked for my general guidance, I’d say (after crapping my pants) to add up all the keepers in the league and then start at that draft pick range.  So if you’re in a 12-team league with 5 keepers/team, the first round is worth an average of $16.

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.

If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.

RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.

Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.

Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.

Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.

Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.

Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.

Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.

Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.

Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.

Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.

Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.

There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.

RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…

Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.

Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4
“Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”

Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.

Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.

This is where I come in. I can’t help you with Jenna (I can’t even get within 500 yards of her, technically), but I can help you with Grey. Specifically, I can help you navigate through his Pitcher Pairings in the midst of a heated draft.

Let’s say it’s the beginning of the 3rd round and you see Clayton Kershaw is still on the board. Your draft strategy never accounted for having an elite SP, but you’re not gonna’ let this value slip by. Now you need to know who to pair him with. You can jump over to Grey’s article, find the paragraph that deals with this scenario, find the sentence that tells you what tier your next SP should be from, find that tier in the SP rankings, and then cross-reference those SPs with the ones still on the board and prepare for your next pick.

Except now it’s the middle of the 5th round and you’ve been auto-drafted Brian McCann and Buster Posey. You don’t need to prepare for the rest of your picks, you need to change your team name to “Catcher Me If You McCann” and prepare for a season of endless mocking.

If only there was a web tool where you could have just clicked on Kershaw’s name and it would have brought you straight to a list of players which your next SP should be selected from… a list which also shows Grey’s Top 300 ranking for each of them (and auction draft value, if you’re into that sort of thing). Guess what? Really, that’s your guess? That’s worst guess I’ve ever heard. Stop guessing.

I’ve created such a web tool, and it’s called APPLES (Albright’s Pitcher Pairing Listing Examination System, anagram courtesy of frequent commenter Steve). You start on the home page where you simply click on the name of the pitcher you’ve selected first. You will be magically transported to a new page where you will see a list of pitchers which Grey feels you should make your next SP. When you make that pick, click on the SPs name and you’ll get a new list… and so on. This goes on for six picks total (again, based on Grey’s recommendation).

There are a few things I should point out:

1. As I’ve already mentioned, this is all based on Grey’s recommendations. I’m not the strategist here, just the guy who made the strategy easier to follow.

2. The lists do not update dynamically, so just because you’ve clicked on a pitcher’s name on one page, his name may still show up on the next page if he’s in the group of recommended pitchers. You’ll just have to remember who you’ve already drafted… shouldn’t be too hard.

3. Depending on what path you take through the Pitcher Pairings, some of the pages you see may look similar. And I don’t mean the way these two look similar, but more like the way Sibel Kekilli from Game of Thrones looks similar to former porn actress Dilara. This is because sometimes your best strategy is to take two SPs from the same group.

4. Which brings me to my final point. Since you may need to take two SPs from the same group, I recommend that you jump ahead a pick (if you have the time) to check if that’s the case. If so, you’ll want to plan accordingly. You don’t want to end up selecting one of the last remaining pitchers from a group only to find out that your next pick should have been from that group, too.

And just one side note to any iPad users out there: I have been working on my own “Draft Bible” of sorts (mine is secular, aside from a brief mention of Jesus Montero and St. Rasburg). I’ve got a color-coded Top 300 with Grey’s ranking and auction value, as well as a check box, next to every player’s name. When you tick the box to indicate a player has been taken, their names are automatically removed from that tab and all other tabs (Players By Position, Pitcher Pairings, Closers, and All SPs). I’ve found it invaluable in my auction and (limited) snake drafts. If you have an iPad and the Numbers app, and you’d like to try it out (it’s free), download the iPad Fantasy Baseball Draft Tool.

Any questions? Please post in the comments below… and here’s that link to APPLES again.

The numbers you see in the chart (which was made by Rudy — thanks, Rudy!) are the 75th percentile for each league.  So that means in a 10 team ESPN league 1,083 runs gets you a 7.5, 270 homers gets you a 7.5 and so on.  Then in a 14 team Y! league, 817 Runs gets you a 10.5 in the standings.  For those slow on the uptake, just take 75% of the team count and you have the points.  These are all for one catcher leagues.  If you have two catcher leagues, the counting stats go up a little bit and down a little on average.  Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 10, 14, 15 and 16 2012 fantasy baseball league:

The answer is hidden in the lede.  Everyone wants one.  That’s all you need to know.  Why follow the herds in this case?  Easy, your team may end up deficient in one way or another.  If you have Konerko, A-Rod and C.J. Wilson, you may be just fine, but once you leave the draft, no one’s going to be clamoring for any of them.  Now if you put Strasburg on the market, you’ll be able to acquire more than his value.  Same goes for other sexy names.  Right now, Michael Young is being drafted right before Pablo Sandoval.  Who’s sexier?  Sandoval, with or without a training bra.  Mike Stanton or Matt Holliday?  Typing Stanton’s name nearly gives me a semi that’s how sexy he is.  Doesn’t only go for top guys.  I like Vernon Wells this year, but him or Colby Rasmus?  It’s not even close who’s sexier.  Derek Holland is gaining traction to be sexy.  There’s even sexy names amongst relievers.  Kenley Jansen is a lot sexier than Chris Perez, even though they have virtually the same ADP and one is guaranteed saves and one is battling Mattingly’s common sense to get saves. (If Mattingly still had his mustache, Jansen would’ve been named the closer while Mattingly slept off a hangover.)  Jesus Montero’s sexy for Jews and gentiles.  What your team needs may not always be what you draft.  If you feel you’re power light, you may draft a flyer in Kenley just because you know his trade value will be higher if he sneaks into saves, than just grabbing a 6th starter in, say, John Danks.  Keep in the back of your mind how a sexy name can gloss over your opponents’ eyes in later negotiations.  It reminds me of the Beautiful Girls quote, “A beautiful girl can make you dizzy, like you’ve been drinking Jack and Coke all morning. She can make you feel high full of the single greatest commodity known to man – promise. Promise of a better day. Promise of a greater hope. Promise of a new tomorrow. This particular aura can be found in the gait of a beautiful girl. In her smile, in her soul, the way she makes every rotten little thing about life seem like it’s going to be okay. The supermodels, Willy? That’s all they are. Bottled promise. Scenes from a brand new day. Hope dancing in stiletto heels.”  Desmond Jennings is hope dancing in stiletto heels.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Curtis Granderson, doing his best Fausto Carmona impersonation, snuck into a 21 and under club with a fake ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Grandy and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Verlander.  You think Mike Napoli is overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Matt Moore and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $10 and the bidding’s just gone to $11, go to $12 if you want him.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Arencibia, Iannetta, Putz, Nathan or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $10 on Espinosa and you get him for $11, keep J.S. in mind when you’re looking to trade Espinosa after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get Alex Presley, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing, but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Verlander. No Halladay. No Kershaw.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d smoke a stogie with Leyland while massaging Verlander’s scalp with EVOO, but I wouldn’t draft him.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.   I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Longoria or Votto or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Kimbrel, Storen, Axford… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick! And why am I not wearing pants?! For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.   You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one. Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player unless it’s a flyer with massive potential (like Bryce Harper, for instance).

This rule has been slightly adjusted from previous years.  Let’s call it the Bryce Harper Effect Or Is It Affect?  The BHEOIIA is telling you it’s okay to grab a hitter for your bench if he has boat-tons of potential and could end up being worth a lot more than his draft value.  This addendum could’ve also been called the Mike Trout Effect Or Is It Affect or MTEOIIA.  As for grabbing a guy like Ty Wigginton for your bench?  Blech.  I know, you owned Ty Wigginton last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.   You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Ty Wigginton on your bench when there’s a hot hitting Josh Willingham on waivers.   Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.   Or grab a starter.  (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.   If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing, but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flyer on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take flyers late.  You’re looking at either Carlos Lee or John Mayberry, who do you choose?  Brian Roberts or Jose Altuve?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Morrow? No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Marcum or Morrow?  I’m taking Marcum.  Chacin or Derek Holland?  I’m going Chacin.  Doug Fister or Ervin Santana?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Fister.  And I hardly knew her!

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone, but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would work, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get Longoria.  That leaves you with Wright.  That doesn’t sound too shabby.  Think about how for the last five years prior to 2011 and you would’ve loved to have Wright and Miggy on the same team.  I say, live in the past and do it.  But I’d say “Do it” like Ben Stiller in the Starsky & Hutch remake.  Now it’s totally not ideal to grab Wright if you think Miggy will get 3rd base eligibility.  Right now, I put it at about 85% that he will have 3rd base eligibility within a few weeks of Opening Day, so if you wanna grab an outfielder instead, I’m not hating the game or the playa (that’s not Spanish for beach).  I say grab Andrew McCutchen or Jay Bruce.  Wanna go for a 2nd baseman?  Kinsler might be there.  Swiggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Reyes or Hanley would also work, though they might not be there.  Now, the risk with not grabbing a 3rd baseman is if Miggy starts treating grounders at third like they’re empty beer cans and starts booting them.  Then you may have punted 3rd and Miggy is sent back to first before his 3rd base eligibility kicks in.  Kicks being the operative word.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter while getting some combo of power and speed, you should be fine.  For those of you who are thinking you can grab a 1st baseman and then move Miggy to 3rd two weeks in, you’re screwed if Miggy doesn’t get 3rd base eligibility, even if that possibility is only slim.  And, yes, that’s the only time Miggy and slim will ever be used in a sentence.  In summation, don’t put unnecessary risk on the table in the first two rounds.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy, obviously without the possible 3rd base eligibility caveat.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals, and no 1st baseman, catcher or starter.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but he can work with just about anything.

Jose Bautista – Hey, something other than a 1st baseman.  Yay, Joey Bats!  Anyone but a 3rd baseman would work.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Hanley and Cano.)  Also, I worry that Bautista’s average might bottom out a little (to the .265 range), so I’d avoid a guy like Kinsler or Stanton.  You don’t want to leave the 2nd round with a potential combined average of .260.  If you take Baustista and a 3rd baseman because you think Bautista can play your outfield, you’re overthinking.  Think of Bautista as a 3rd baseman.  If during the season you need to put him in the outfield because you picked up a 3rd baseman off waivers, then more power to you.  Right now you don’t put him in the outfield because then you’re only going to draft 4 outfielders and scrounge for a 3rd baseman.  Your 3rd baseman is gonna be crap and you’re gonna end up with Bautista there anyway and you’re gonna be short at outfield.  One thing you can do later on is draft a 3rd baseman at your corner infidel slot.  Then if he does well, you can move him into 3rd, Bautista into your outfield and have the flexibility to grab a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman off waivers for your corner slot.

Evan Longoria – Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Kemp might not be realistic though considering he’s been going first in some mocks.  In my fantasy fantasy world, they’d both be there though.  Same goes for Ellsbury.  I’d even pair Longoria with Pedroia since he usually gives hella at-bats and a decent average. Someone like Kinsler or Stanton aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Matt Kemp – Position-wise, he doesn’t go with many.  Stats-wise, he goes with everyone, except a pitcher.  This is probably why he’s going number one overall in mocks.  The problem with that is you draft Kemp and you have one outfielder but still need four more of those and have no infielders.  That guarantees you will leave the 2nd round missing at least two of 2nd base, 1st base or 3rd base.  In the best case scenario, you draft Kemp and Longoria or Wright, so you don’t have to worry about 3rd base.  If you get Kemp and Longoria or Wright, you’ll need to pray your Hosmer, Konerko or other 1st base pick works out.  Otherwise, it might be a long season.  Remember, Hosmer looks great right now, but if he was a sure thing, he’d be going in the first round.  If you can get Kemp and Prince Fielder, then more power to you, though that seems like a pipe dream in the mocks I’ve seen.  Kemp and Kinsler is okay, but then you have no 1st baseman or 3rd baseman and you’ll be up against teams with Miggy, Pujols, Longoria, Prince etc.  I.e., you’ll be doomed.  Kemp plus another outfielder is you throwing in the towel after the first two rounds.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am, ma’am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, McCutchen, you may only get around 35 homers combined from your first two picks while Fielder can produce that by himself.  I’d also be wary of going with CarGo.  Not because of the team thing, but more because of the injury-prone thing. I don’t love the idea of Cano and Tulo.  You’re all middle infield.  Why don’t you just go and marry Adam Everett?  Realistically, if you have to draft Tulo in the top 5 to get him, you’re gonna be looking at Wright, Beltre or Bruce at the end of the 2nd round.  I’d take any of them, but now with Bruce, you will have no corner infidels.  It’s precarious.  (Do you see why I always try to go 1st base or 3rd base in the 1st round?)

Justin Upton – Upton is similar to Kemp.  No outfielders with him.  You really should take a corner man.  Longoria’s great if he’s still there, Fielder will work wonders and clean up after himself!

Prince Fielder – I’d take Longoria with Fielder, I’d also take Fielder with Longoria.  See how that works?  Since Fielder is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes, Hanley or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy.  Kinsler?  Fine!  Wright?  Great!  Instead of gum, chew bacon!  It all works!

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Robinson Cano – No Kinsler or Pedroia.  Similarly to Tulo, since Cano is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, CarGo), a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  I’d try to avoid Reyes or Hanley.  You don’t want to have to scrounge together an outfield and two corners leaving the 2nd round.

Jacoby Ellsbury – You don’t want an outfielder.  You can take Reyes, Hanley, Pedroia or Kinsler, but then you might only have 35-40 homers after two picks and some people are getting that with one pick.  If a 1st baseman (Votto, Fielder) is there, then you just scored.  If no one is there without reaching down to David Wright, you might have yourself a Javid Wrightsbury combo player that goes 60/60.  Or you might get a player that hurts his hamstring and complains the fences are still too far, leaving you wanting Justdrian Gonzaton.  (<–And that’s how you make an already confusing post, more confusing!)

Runs – 997

The average team last year scored 973 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs.  To win your league, it took 1,108 runs with the average hitter contributing 85 runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 24 runs.  So 24 runs on top of 973 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs.  So I would aim for 997 runs or 77 runs/player.

Home Runs — 257

The average team hit 237 homers.  To win, you needed 294 homers or 23 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 237 or 257 homers or 20 homers/player.

RBIs — 970

The average team needed 936 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,071 or 82 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 970 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.

Steals — 176

The average team needed 162 steals.  To win, you had to get 214 or 17 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 9 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 176 steals or 14 steals/player.

Average — .267

The average team’s, uh, average is .2674.  To win, you had to get a .2806.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .267 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,305

The average team’s Ks are 1,168.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,384 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 39 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,305 Ks from my pitching staff.

Wins — 82

The average team’s pitchers won 82 games.  To win, you needed to win 99.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3 games.  (Any Astro starter is good for at least three wins.)  I go for average here, which is 82 games.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 126

The average team’s relievers closed out 91 games.  To win, you needed 146  saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed 126 saves.

ERA — 3.51

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.59 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.17 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.51 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.19

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.23 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.15 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.19 WHIP.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.

TIERS

If your first pitcher is from the tiers:  “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?” and “The aces that once were.” — These tiers are from Halladay to Greinke.  There’s very little chance I have anyone in any of these tiers.  If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Gio tier that goes into the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Moore/Scherzer and one guy from the flyer tier of Sanchez.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Peacock or Minor.  So Greinke, Daniel Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Peavy and Peacock.  That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.” – This tier goes from Hamels to Lester.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Hamels and Lester with anyone in the Wim Wenders tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Hamels, I wouldn’t ignore Wim Wenders’s tier if they fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either.  You’ll be fine taking Hamels and moving right into the Gio tier.  But let’s say you start your staff with Hamels and Haren because he falls to you, you should skip right to the Moore tier.  Again, if someone from Wim Wenders’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point.  So if you have Hamels, Haren, Moore, you jump to Sanchez’s tier and grab two pitchers.  (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.)  So that leaves you with Hamels, Haren, Ubaldo, Worley, McCarthy and Brad Peacock.  That’s one great looking staff, or so says Gosh Johnson, Josh’s porn star brother.

Now if you grab Hamels, but you skip Wim Wenders’s tier and go straight to Gio’s tier, then you grab one or two guys in that tier and one or two guys from the Yummo! tier.  If you grab one from the “Crazy like a fox” tier, then grab two from the Yummo! tier and vice versa.  At this point, you should have four starters.  Then grab anyone after Sanchez then Brad Peacock.  That leaves you with a staff of Hamels, Latos, Anibal, Garza, Wandy and Peacock.  That’s probably the best staff I’ve ever seen in the entire universe.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.” — This is similar to grabbing Hamels through Lester.  Wim Wenders’s pitchers are all number one fantasy starters.  I’d go ahead and grab three starters between the “crazy like a fox” and Yummo! tiers and another one later on while saving room for Peacock.  So you’d have Weaver, Latos, Moore, Marcum, Peavy and Peacock.  You just won your league and games haven’t even started.  You’re welcome.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!” — You’re fighting an uphill battle if you haven’t grabbed a starter until this tier.  So you need to make up for that by grabbing two guys in this tier and two guys in the Moore tier then a flyer then Peacock.  For instance, Gio, Daniel Hudson, Ubaldo, Luebke, Lilly and Peacock.  Honestly, that staff looks pretty good to me; go buy yourself an ice cream cone and celebrate.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.25 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Gio Gonzalez, who I have projected for a 1.28, you need to pair him with someone I have projected below a 1.25.  Don’t pair Gio with Scherzer.  Don’t pair Gio with Morrow.  Pair Gio with Zimmermann.  Pair him with Daniel Hudson.  Pair him with Cain.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only six starters below a 1.25 WHIP.  There’s 11 pitchers in the top 80 (which is actually 29 pitchers), four of them are Johan, Baker, Peavy and Stauffer.  Three of those are injury risks and the other one you can’t start in away games.  Then there’s Kuroda, who is a Yankee risk, Lilly, who’s old, Collmenter, who only gives you a good WHIP, and Chris Sale and Daniel Bard, who could be good but are risks in their own right.  Basically, there’s McCarthy to totally trust for WHIP help in the last 29 pitchers.  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.  Always.  Even in deep leagues.

Suddenly, you’re burning up like you just chugged a bottle of Emeril’s Creole Seasoning.  Worse, you have cotton mouth and have no time to go to the sink.  Outside, it’s raining.  Then “Water, water everywhere, but not a drop to drink…” starts playing on loop in your head.  Over and over again like a Lady Gaga song chorus.  You look up at the draft timer and you have 30 seconds left.  You look at the reflection of yourself in your framed supposed-to-be-ironic poster that reads, “The glass is half empty, deal with it” and you begin to sob.  Not happy “I just won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar” sobs, but sad “Please let me out of your van; I don’t want my skin to be made into a suit” sobs.  With three seconds left, you draft Chris Johnson.

Immediately, everyone in the draft room begins to mock you.  Nice reach, I think Matt Stairs is still available for your corner!… Hey, I didn’t know Ed Wade’s toupee was drafting with us!…  You suck! And, with that, you open the window to your bedroom and jump out.  Luckily, you live on the first floor and only bruise your ankle.  You limp back through the house, ignore your Mom’s take-out-the-freakin’-garbage complaints, sit back down at your computer and zombie your way through the rest of the draft.  Only half paying attention because you know you screwed up the Johnson pick.

It was a reach.  You probably could’ve took Johnson a few rounds later.  But it’s not the ruination of your draft.  Reaching is a part of drafting.  If you’re not reaching for guys that you want then you might not know which guys you want.  You don’t want to reach every single round, but sometimes it’s not only appropriate but it’s necessary.  Wouldn’t you rather have a guy you want in the 9th round or a guy you don’t want in the 16th?  Draw an emoticon on your hand and learn to smile again.  It’ll be all right.

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on the DL and that’s fine because then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as a player nurses his hammy day-to-day.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida Kahlo used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Carlos Gonzalez is overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want J.J. Putz and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $6 and the bidding’s just gone to $7, go to $8 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Arencibia, Iannetta, Putz, Nathan or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $10 on Espinosa and you get him for $11, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Espinosa after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get Raburn, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum. No Halladay. No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d smoke a bowl with Lincecum and then tease Sandoval that we could eat whatever we wanted, but I wouldn’t draft him.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.   I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Longoria or Teixeira or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Bell, Rivera, Soria… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick! And why am I not wearing pants?! For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.   You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one. Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Ty Wigginton last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.   You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Ty Wigginton on your bench when there’s a hot hitting Josh Willingham on waivers.   Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.   Or grab a starter.  (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.   If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Danny Espinosa?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Morrow? No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Cueto or Edwin Jackson?  I’m taking Cueto.  Carlos Zambrano or James Shields?  I’m going Zambrano.  Morrow or Colby Lewis?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Morrow.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

Miguel Cabrera – I’d put him with just about anyone but another 1st baseman.  The reality of the situation is you want to get someone that is going to give you a few steals, say, 10.  A third baseman would also be ideal, but it might be unrealistic to think you’re going to get A-Rod or Zimmerman.  Youuuuuuuuk would be available in my fantasy fantasy world and have 3rd base eligibility at the start of the season, but getting Youuuuuuk might not be realistic either.  What is realistic is Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen.  Miggy with one of those three looks real nice to me.  Your team would be balanced heading off to the third pick.  Someone like Kinsler, Pedroia, Phillips or Reyes would also work.  Really, as long as you avoid a 1st baseman, catcher and a starter, you should be fine.

Albert Pujols – More or less the same deal as Miggy.  I wouldn’t worry about anything other than trying to get a 2nd pick with at least 10 steals.

Hanley Ramirez – You want just about anyone but a shortstop or 2nd baseman.  Ideally, you want a big bat.  I.e., not someone like Carl Crawford.  You want someone that is going to get you 30+ homers.  Howard and Fielder are gone according to my rankings, but they may not be in Yahoo, CBS or ESPN’s fantasy fantasy world.  If they’re there (stutterer!), I like them with Hanley like a fat kid likes cake.  In a best case scenario, I’d have a 1B or 3B teamed with Hanley.  An outfielder is fine, but you’re gonna be behind the eight ball filling out your infield later on.  If you can pinkie swear me you’ll grab Adam Dunn with Hanley, then take an outfielder.

Evan Longoria – Anyone but a 3rd baseman.  You really want a 1st baseman.  (This is a common theme.  Leave the first two rounds with a 3rd baseman and a 1st baseman and you’re in better shape than the schmohawk who took Tulo and Cano.)  Since Longoria’s speed is a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with a guy like Kemp, McCutchen or Reyes.  Youuuuuk would also work nicely since Longoria’s average is a bit weak.  Someone like Kinsler or Phillips aren’t terrible, but you’re putting yourself in a potential average hole that you’ll need to dig out of later.  Shin-Soo isn’t a terrible guy with Longoria either.  Just keep in mind, Longoria’s average and steals may need help.

Joey Votto – You could pair Votto with Yuniesky Betancourt and you’d be fine.  Votto’s that good.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a number one pick next year.  Let’s run away together, Joey!  Wait, what am I saying?  Oh, pairings, right.  Yeah, you don’t want Votto with a 1st baseman, obviously.  He’s similar to Miggy and Pujols.  You want a third baseman, but you can work with just about anything.

Ryan Braun – I wouldn’t draft an outfielder next.  Ideally, I’d try for a 3rd baseman, 1st baseman, 2nd baseman or a shortstop, in that order.  I wouldn’t kick Braun and Fielder or Braun and Howard out of bed, but Braun/Zimmerman looks better.

David Wright – Similar to Longoria, but with where Longoria’s potential pitfalls could be average and steals, Wright’s a potential power problem.  I’d want a power guy.  Think Wright and Howard or Fielder.  That sounds like the best pairing since my tilapia, Mad Dog 20/20 pairing last night.

Ryan Howard – Obviously if I’d take Wright and Howard, I’d also take Howard and Wright.  See how that works?  Since Howard is power first, I’d pair him with Reyes or McCutchen too.  He’s a similar pairing to Pujols and Miggy, but he’s more of an average issue so I’d be careful about guys like Kemp, Kinsler or Phillips.

Troy Tulowitzki – This isn’t about pairing, but I don’t see how I’m going to draft Tulo in any league this year.  Just going too early for my taste.  Any the hoo!  If I do, I’d give a lookie-loo to a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman, Sam I am.  Since Tulo is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d also take a speed outfielder (Crawford) or a speed/power outfielder (McCutchen, Upton).  You are dealing with more risk though if you go the speed route with your second pick because if Tulo craps out with another injury and you have, say, Crawford, you may only get around 40 homers combined from your first two picks while Howard can produce that by himself.

Prince Fielder – Same story as Ryan Howard, but he’s slightly less of an average issue so I’d pair him with Kemp, Kinsler or Phillips, as well.

Adrian Gonzalez – He could have a bit more risk than Fielder on the average side, but for our purposes he’s nearly identical to Fielder in projections and pairing.

Chase Utley – No Kinsler or Phillips.  Similarly to Tulo, since Utley is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed outfielder (Crawford), speed shortstop (Reyes) or a power/speed outfielder (McCutchen, Upton).  He could also work with a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman.  Shoot, Utley works with everyone.  Love you, Utley.  Write soon!

The top 4 options at catcher last year were Mauer, Martinez, Posey and McCann.  There’s one waiver wire pick-up there.  After those guys, we have Buck, Napoli, Olivo, Soto and Ruiz.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Buck, Olivo and Ruiz), two guys who were drafted late in drafts (Soto and Napoli) and one of those guys I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Russell Martin, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Saltalamacchia and Arencibia ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2011, I’d say, “I told you Salty, Iannetta and Arencibia were good bargains.”  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up your little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  John Buck.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts The Midnight Cowboy until around the 18th round.  His stats last year were 53/20/66/.281.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 64/20/79/.302/1.  V-Mart gets drafted 29th overall.  The difference between the two was 11 Runs, 13 RBIs, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  Instead of V-Mart, you could draft F-Her.  Whereas instead of John Buck, you could draft Kevin Slowey.  Oh.  Okay.  Those are even.  A first baseman comparison would be instead of V-Mart, you take Adam Dunn.  At Buck’s spot, you draft Gaby Sanchez.  Huge difference there, too.  A shortstop comparison would be Reyes vs. Scutaro.  Another huge difference.  At catcher, there’s hardly any difference.  You can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.

TIERS

“The best, Jerry.  The best!” and “Top starters that I’m wary of.” – These tiers are from Halladay to Sabathia.  There’s very little chance I have anyone in either of these tiers.  If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Haren tier of the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Marcum/Daniel Hudson and one guy from the flyer tier of Chacin.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Minor or Zimmermann.  So F-Her, Scherzer, Marcum, Chacin, Vazquez and Zimmermann.  That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.

“I’m going to have one of these guys on my team,” “I would draft one of these guys, but I think others will take them first” and “If I failed to get a pitcher in the Lester tier, I absolutely need one from this tier.” —

These tiers go from Lester to Greinke.  With the pitchers from these tiers, you don’t have the same luxury of Halladay’s tier.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Lester and Greinke with anyone in the Hamels tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Lester, I wouldn’t ignore Hamels (or anyone in his tier) if he fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either.  You’ll be fine taking Lester and moving right into the top 40 starters.  So let’s say you start your staff with Lester and Oswalt because he falls to you, you should skip right to Marcum.  Again, if someone from Haren’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point.  So if you have Lester, Oswalt, Marcum, you jump to Chacin’s tier and grab two pitchers.  (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.)  So that leaves you with Lester, Oswalt, Marcum, Chacin, Morrow and Mike Minor.  Great looking staff, or so says Gosh Johnson, Josh’s porn star brother.

Now, if you draft someone from Lester’s tier but don’t take another starter until the top 40 starters post, that works too.  You take Kershaw then two guys from Haren’s tier, so Kershaw, Scherzer and Billingsley.  If that fails to happen, you take Kershaw, a guy from Haren’s tier and two guys from Marcum’s tier, so Kershaw, Cain, Marcum and Daniel Hudson.  If that doesn’t happen, you take Kershaw, one guy from Haren’s tier, one guy from Marcum’s tier and two guys from Chacin’s tier.  So Kershaw, Cain, Marcum, Chacin and Morrow.  Now if you have the first scenario — Kershaw, Scherzer and Billingsley — you then take two pitchers in Chacin’s tier.  If you have the 2nd scenario — Kershaw, Cain, Marcum and Daniel Hudson — you take one pitcher from Chacin’s tier.  Oh, and remember, every team needs a sixth starter — Mike Minor or Jordan Zimmermann.

“Kinda boring, but reliable number three starters.” and “Not bad options, but I see no upside.” — This tier goes from Lilly to Dempster in the top 40 starters and Danks to Shields in the top 60 starters post.  These are number three and four starters if — and this “if” has its own solar system — you somehow Mr. Bungle getting a number two starter or you feel like your staff is wonky as all get-out.  For instance, you have Kershaw then you go on an insane hitting run and don’t grab another pitcher until Jorge de la Rosa.  That means you’ve skipped the entire top 40 starters post.  At that point, I’d grab someone from Lilly’s tier.  Or if you’ve grabbed Hamels, Cain and Marcum and start worrying that your team has one guy who gives up homers, another who has a FIP’ing problem and another guy who had a poor April last year and you just want some stability, then you grab someone in Danks’ tier.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.25 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Gio Gonzalez, who I have projected for a 1.28, you need to pair him with someone I have projected for below a 1.25.  Don’t pair Gio with Wandy.  Don’t pair Gio with Dempster.  Pair Gio with Kuroda.  Pair him with Hanson.  Pair him with Cain.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only three starters below a 1.25 WHIP.  There’s four pitchers in the top 80 and two of them are Peavy and Johan and who knows when they’re pitching.  The other two are Hellickson and Travis Wood, who I like but they’re not completely trustworthy.  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

Yovani Gallardo – I love Gallardo; I have his projected WHIP down for 1.24.  That’s optimistic because I am high on him this year.  All meanings of the word “high” work for that last sentence.  But I know I’m being optimistic so I would try to balance his WHIP out with another pitcher.  Say, Kuroda or Lilly.  Say, Tim Hudson or Matt Cain.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.  For further reading on that subject, see Mat Latos’ 2010.

Runs – 1,021

The average team last year scored 998 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs.  To win your league, it took 1,124 runs with the average hitter contributing 86.5 runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 22.80 runs.  So 23 runs on top of 998 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs.  So I would aim for 1,021 runs or 79 runs/player.

Home Runs — 255

The average team hit 235 homers.  To win, you needed 291 homers or 22.4 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10.19 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 235 or 255 homers or 20 homers/player.

RBIs — 973

The average team needed 948 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,083 or 83.6 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24.4 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 973 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.

Steals — 177

The average team needed 150 steals.  To win, you had to get 208 or 16 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.5 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 177 steals or 14 steals/player.

Average — .271

The average team’s, uh, average is .271.  To win, you had to get a .284.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .271 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,272

The average team’s Ks are 1,149.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,342 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 34.99 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,272 Ks from my pitching staff.

Wins — 86

The average team’s pitchers won 86 games.  To win, you needed to win 104 .  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3.23 games.  (Any Astro pitcher is good for at least four .23 wins.)  I go for average here, which is 86 games.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 122

The average team’s relievers closed out 87 games.  To win, you needed 142  saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.02 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed 122 saves.

ERA — 3.56

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.64 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.18 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.56 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.23

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.26 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.18 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.23 WHIP.

Tommy Hanson – 9.68 K/9.  I just went over him in a roundup last week.  I’m still not completely convinced he’s going to avoid setbacks, but for the right price I’d put some of that my hand, son.

Clayton Kershaw – 9.61 K/9.  Has the 7th best K/9 and a 5+ BB/9, which is incredibly bad.  In his young career, Kershaw seems like he needs to audit Pitch Management 101.

Jered Weaver – 9.92 K/9.  Throwing his curveball a lot more this year has bumped his K-rate up by more than 2 per inning and has batters swinging and missing at pitches outside the strike zone by 7% more.  Meanwhile, his brother, Jeff cries himself to sleep.

James Shields – His K/9 in 2009 was 6.84, his K/9 this year is 9.22.  What the flippin’ frack is going on?

Tom Gorzelanny – K/9 is 9.23, which is excellent.  Might be the first time I’ve mentioned Gorzelanny in a positive light this year.  Just hard for me to get behind reclamation projects.  I’m like the Councilman in that scene of Treme where Big Chief… *snooze*  Wait, is the episode over?  What happened in that scene where… *snooze*  At this point, I just hope Treme doesn’t ruin my future re-watchings of The Wire.  Anyhoo, Gorzelanny might get bumped for Big Z, so I’d put my excitement on simmer.

Ricky Romero – 9.48 K/9.  Still going to have some terrible matchups, and I have my doubts if he can continue at the pace he’s on, but definitely worth owning and starting just about everywhere.

Colby Lewis – 9.10 K/9.  He was terrible in the US, then he found himself in Japan and returned to find success here.  Colby is a Survivor!  His xFIP is 3.99 and I think in his home park in the summer he might be lucky to keep it that low, but the Ks are definitely there.

Felipe Paulino – 8.59 K/9.  Yeah, that’s nice, but his walk rate is 5.26, which even beats BBershaw.

Phil Hughes – 8.88 K/9.  Top Yankee strikeout pitcher by a huge margin with CC coming in with a 6.75.  BTW, Halladay has a 6.90 K/9, way down from last year, which is almost as odd as what Shields is doing.

Justin Masterson – 8.81 K/9.  His walk rate is bad at 4.98, but his xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA because his BABIP is an insane .405.  I know numbers make your brain hurt, so I’ll say this.  In theory, he should be a lot better, but so should deep-fried Twinkies but, in the end, they just taste like greasy batter.  Wait, greasy batter’s delicious!

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on DL and that’s fine cause then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Glass Chipper on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as Chipper nurses his hammy.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Ellsbury or Crawford or Pierre et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Ellsbury one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Juan Rivera’s match-ups this week.  As Frida used to say, hasta luego, Rivera.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors and sense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say Joe Mauer snuck into a 21 and under club with Joe Jonas’s ID and took your baby’s mama home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Mauer and let others overspend on him.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Lincecum.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Matt Capps and every auction value article you’ve read says he’s worth $2 and the bidding’s just gone to $3, go to $4 if you need a closer.  It’s your team; you need certain guys whether they’re overpriced or not.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you might want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out, say, Dexter Fowler for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Fowler for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At your draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.  In fact, dress like him for your draft.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Dotel, Capps or whoever is going to be drafted.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Lincecum.  No Halladay.  No F-Her.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I have bedsheets with Lincecum on them… Hmm… That sounds wrong.  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Longoria or whoever is too great.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Rivera, Broxton… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

I know, you owned Josh Willingham last year and you guys got along thick as thieves.  Awesome!  Send him a postcard.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Clint Barmes on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.  (Note:  This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower.  If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing but scraps on waivers.)

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Juan Rivera or Julio Borbon, who do you choose?  Orlando Hudson or Scott Sizemore?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  Does this mean I don’t want Slowey?  No, I’m saying when in doubt.  Tim Hudson or Andy Pettitte?  I’m taking Hudson.  Billingsley or Garza?  I’m going Bills.  Slowey or Price?  Ah, trick question.  But I’d go Slowey.

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.

As we wait for the first prototype of our Razzball helmet that allows us to help call the plays for our readers, here are some tips that will allow you to call audibles like Peyton Manning. (Look slig me, Doc, I’m makin’ football analogies!)

I’m in the middle of a draft and I’m somewhat to completely set at a position BUT I can’t believe this hitter is still available.  Should I draft him and 1) Fill CI, MI, or UTIL earlier in the draft than expected  and/or 2) Draft him to set up a pre-season trade?

Generally no on #1.  Always “No” on #2.

I’ll start with the answer to #2.  NEVER draft thinking you’ll be able to trade anyone for close to face value.  Two simple reasons:  1) Everyone is in wanderlust with their team after the draft and generally overvalue most players on their roster and 2) If they valued this player nearly as much as you, then he wouldn’t have dropped as far in the draft!

For #1, I’d only do this if the player is clearly the best hitter on the board with slight consideration for position scarcity.  If you drafted Pujols in the 1st round and inexplicably Adrian Gonzalez still available in the 4th round, then sure.  But I’m pretty confident that the 2B, SS, or 3B you have your eyes on isn’t by far the best hitter out there.  I’m supremely confident if you’re eying a Catcher.  But even if they are slightly better than a player at another position, I’d draft the other guy.  Why?  Better roster flexibility throughout the draft – you ALWAYS want the best values and filling up one position and being scarce in another prevents this – and if the league is undervaluing this position early (based on your valuation), then they probably will undervalue it late in the draft too.

Same as above but it’s a pitcher.

You’re not going to get good trade value from a starting pitcher and if you’ve already got a couple of top SPs, that next one will have less incremental value for you.  You obviously value pitchers more than your league mates and will have no problem drafting 5-6 SPs you like spread out throughout the draft that’ll better maximize value and draft flexibility.

Relievers are the exception to the rule.  They are the only players that have fair trade value given their scarcity.  Nothing wrong with stocking up on saves in April/May and then trading a closer when a good deal can be had.   But I can’t see any reason to draft more than 2 closers in the first 10 rounds – even if a top closer is still hanging around by the 9th/10th.

How do I factor upside into my draft choices?

Sprinkle it in throughout the draft and take more risks later in the draft.

For those who read this blog religiously (which must suck for our Jewish readership as our content must be even more nonsensical when read right to left), you may know that Grey has a perpetual boner (RIP btw) for upside while I’m a bit more conservative.  Here’s why….

You have to realize that ‘upside’ is factored into legitimate projections (CHONE, ZiPs, PECOTA, Marcel) and that the chances of performing above these projections is about the same as performing below these projections.  So ‘upside’ is a sunny word for risk and drafting on ‘upside’ (vs. projected results which represents their ‘average’ statistical outcome) generally means you are reaching for that player.

It’s best to balance ‘upside’ players with more dependable players so you’re getting the most value out of every draft pick and minimizing risk.  I remember seeing a 2009 AL expert draft last year where someone drafted Liriano, David Price, and Chamberlain as 3 of his top 4 starters.  That was nothing more than pitcher roulette in my eyes and they obviously didn’t hit their number.

But towards the end of the draft, upside is great because the ‘dependable’ players aren’t much better than the players available on the free agent wire.  So you might as well take a shot on someone sexy in the hopes they overdeliver knowing you can fall back on a dependable player via free agency.

You play it too safe, Rudy.  Flexibility.  Manage risk.   Blech.  Screw your mutual fund approach. I want to play the stock market.  Any recommendations?

While I think maximizing draft value is the best chance of winning a league, I admire someone who’s willing to roll the dice.  Gamble is my last name.

If you want to gamble by taking a lot of young ‘upside’ picks, go ahead.  It could work but I highly doubt it.

If you think you’re great at finding pitching bargains, go right ahead and wait until the 10th round or so to draft pitchers.  Just realize that there will definitely be at least 1-2 drafters in your league already deploying that strategy which makes it tougher to win with this gambit (because of the increased competition for early hitters/late pitchers).

My gambit of choice would be to draft 2 pitchers in the 3rd-5th rounds – hopefully snagging 2 of the top 5 or 6 starters before an inevitable starting pitching run occurs.  In the next 5 rounds, get 2 premium closers and another SP.  Get at least two more closers before the end of the draft and some pitchers with solid Wins and K numbers.  The intent is to finish near the top in all 5 pitching categories.

While hitters are generally valued higher than pitchers, it is tougher to find hitter values but they are there.  I’d punt Catcher since you’re paying a premium for position scarcity and you want to focus on raw numbers to balance your pitcher-heavy draft.  I’d punt both 2B and SS until at least the double-digit rounds as there are much better values to be had later in the draft.   Throughout the draft, concentrate on everyday hitters with a likely shot of hitting 1st through 5th in the lineup – it doesn’t matter if they are on a bad team.  The reason for focusing on lineup position is that they are solid bets for 160+ Runs and RBIs.   Since power-speed players generally come at premiums,  mix and match hitters who come undervalued because they are particularly weak in a dimension – e.g., Adam Dunn (average) and Michael Bourn (power).  As the season goes on, trade closers to improve offensive numbers.

Will this strategy work?  Yeah, some of the time.  I wouldn’t recommend it over a more balanced draft but if it was a sure thing, they wouldn’t call it gambling…

TIERS

Tim Lincecum – There’s very little chance I have Lincecum on any of my teams, but if I do have him, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until around Wandy tier of the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab two guys from the flier tier of Cueto/Buchholz.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — a total flier in the Homer Bailey tier.  So Lincecum, Billingsley, Cueto, Anderson, Bailey and Sanchez.  This is a pretty wonky staff, but Lincecum gives you that flexibility.

“F-Her vs. Greinke,” “Don’t hate them because they’ve done it many times before.” and “These guys have a legitimate chance of being on my team.” — With the pitchers from these tiers, you don’t have the same luxury of Lincecum.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come before Hamels with anyone in the Hamels tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Haren I wouldn’t ignore Hamels (or anyone in his tier) if he fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either. So you could start your staff Hamels and Haren.  Then I’d take one guy from the Bills/Wandy tier.  So Hamels, Haren and Baker, for instance.  Then I’d take one guy from the Slowey/Cueto tier.  So Haren, Hamels, Baker and Ervin, possibly.  Then I’d skip below for the fifth starter.

If you get a pitcher from above Hamels on the rankings and don’t get someone from the Hamels tier as well, I would pair that pitcher with two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier.  So you’re looking at, possibly, Haren, Cain and Baker.  Or Verlander, Wandy, Bills.  Or Johan, Bills and Baker.  If you can’t get two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier, I’d go for one and two guys from the Cueto/Buchholz flier tier.  So, something like Haren, Bills, Cueto and Anderson.  If you do get two guys from the Wandy/Bills tier, then I’d take one from the flier tier.  So you’re looking at Haren, Wandy, Cain and Cueto.  I’ll get to the fifth starter in a second.  Remember, every team needs a sixth starter — Jonathan Sanchez.

“If I don’t get a pitcher from the previous tier, I’ll need someone from this tier.” — This tier starts with Hamels.  I would team Hamels with anyone in this tier, but then I’d skip to the Slowey/Cueto tier.  You draft Hamels and Johnson?  Then skip to Slowey/Cueto.  This is like a fantasy baseball Choose Your Own Adventure.  Hamels and Nolasco?  Skip to Slowey/Cueto.  In the Slowey/Cueto tier, I’d take two.  Hamels, Nolasco, de la Rosa and Slowey, for instance.

If you only get one from the Hamels tier, then I’d take two from the Bills/Wandy tier.  So Hamels, Bills and Wandy, for instance.  I’d then take one guy from the Cueto/Slowey tier.  So, possibly, Hamels, Bills, Burnett and Slowey.  See below for the fifth starter.

“I’m on board.” – If you were able to actually follow along in the last two sections, two points for you.  Now let’s assume you don’t take any starter until the Wandy/Bills tier.  Then I’d take two starters from the Wandy tier.  So let’s say Bills and Baker.  Then I’d take one from the Cueto/Buchholz flier tier.  So you now have Bills, Baker and Anderson.  This staff is five times wonky with a side of ulcer, so to finish it off I’d take Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, Correia or Penny, or some kind of vet stability.  So you’re hopefully looking at Bills, Baker, Anderson, Hudson, fifth starter to come and Filthy Sanchez.

The Fifth Starter – Before everyone takes Jonathan Sanchez, we need a fifth starter.  My suggestion is to take someone to complement your first pick’s risk.  If you went less risky by taking someone in the top 17 of the top 20 starters, then take a flier like, say, Mat Latos.  If you didn’t take anyone in the top 20, then take someone a little safer with your fifth starter, like, Harang or Penny.  If someone — anyone! — falls in the draft and becomes a value pick, take them.  If Oswalt falls for whatever reason, take him.  If Peavy falls, take him.  If Bedard’s sitting around in the 330s, take him.  The fifth starter is your wild card.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.26 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Bills, who I have projected for a 1.32, you need to pair him with someone I have projected for below a 1.26.  Don’t pair Bills with Wandy.  Don’t pair Bills with Price.  Pair Bills with Baker.  Pair him with Oswalt.  Pair him with Cliff Lee.  If you take Ubaldo (projected 1.27 WHIP) and Bills (projected 1.32 WHIP) where are you going to balance these guys?  Slowey and Wells?  Okay, but if you don’t get them, then you might need to scramble.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only two starters below a 1.26 WHIP and one of them might be a reliever this year (Hughes) and one is Randy Wolf.  There’s four pitchers in the top 80 and one of them is out a month to start the season (Lilly), one is Jurrjens and two of them will hurt you on Ks (Wells and Buehrle).  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.

Albert Pujols – Could really team him up with anyone, except another 1st baseman.  Preferably, I’d like to have Pujols and a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  Then on the turn you can grab an outfielder.  So Pujols, Zimmerman and Upton.  Yeah, that would be nice.

Hanley Ramirez – Again, you want just about anyone but Tulo, Reyes or Rollins.  Ideally, you want a big bat.  I.e., not Carl Crawford.  Someone that is going to get you 30+ homers.  Howard and Fielder will be gone, but A-Gon, Morneau, Zimmerman or even Votto should be there.  I’d consider J-Upside, but if I went that way I would definitely want another 30+ hitter sooner vs. later.

Chase Utley – No Kinsler or Phillips.  Since Utley is a power threat at a normally weaker position, I’d take a speed outfielder (Crawford), speed shorstop (Reyes, Rollins) or a power/speed outfielder (Sizemore, Upton).  He could work with a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman or even Tulo.  Shoot, Utley works with everyone.  Love you, Utley.  Write soon!

Alex Rodriguez – No 3rd basemen.  A-Rod is similar to Utley since he also gives you a decent amount of steals, you can put him with just about anyone.  Someone like Holliday would give you a nice balance.

Ryan Braun – I wouldn’t draft an outfielder next and I’d hesitate to draft a 1st baseman.  Ideally, I’d try for a shortstop (Tulo or Rollins), 2nd baseman (Kinsler, Phillips) or a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman).  The reason I’d hesitate on a 1st baseman is because it’s a deeper position and so is outfield, so you’d have two deep positions covered and no shallow ones.  I wouldn’t kick Braun and Votto out of bed, but Braun/Zimmerman looks better.

Mark Teixeira/Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard – Similarly to Braun, I’d avoid a 1st baseman and hesitate on an outfielder.  Ideally, you’d have some combo of one of those 1st basemen and Wright, Longoria, Kinsler or Tulo.

Matt Kemp – Since he’s not as safe with the power as Braun, I’d take a 1st baseman with Kemp.  I’d also look at taking a bat at a weaker position (Tulo, Kinsler, Wright).  I’d avoid guys who bring their value with speed (Reyes, Crawford, Ellsbury).

Evan Longoria – Anything but a 3rd baseman.  Since his speed’s a little wonky, I’d have no problem pairing him with Sizemore.  Holliday would also work nicely since Longoria’s average is a bit weak.

Tim Lincecum – You have to have a big bat at 1st base if you’re going to take Lincecum.  If you can’t get Howard, Fielder, Miggy or Tex, skip Lincecum altogether and go for Wright as your first pick.

David Wright – Since he hit, what, 2 homers last year, I’d want a power guy at a weak position to be paired with Wright or a power guy at 1st base.  Think Tulo and Wright.  That’s nice.  Think Wright and Howard.  That sounds like the best pairing since my tilapia, Mad Dog 20/20 pairing last night.

The top 3 options at catcher last year, who still have eligibility this year, are Mauer, Martinez and McCann.  (Wieters might have to flip his W over to keep with the theme.)  After those guys we have Suzuki, Posada, Montero, A.J. and Napoli.  Three waiver wire pick-ups (Suzuki, Montero and A.J.), one guy who went in the last rounds of drafts (Posada) and one guy who I had to beg with people all year to hold onto (Napoli).  It’s like this every year with catchers.  If you hopped out of a DeLorean to tell me Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Clement and Jesus Flores ended up in the top 10 catchers in 2010, I’d say, “I told you Iannetta was a good bargain,” and I’d ask if I used, “The Resurrection of Jesus Flores” as a post title.  Catchers are unpredictable and bunched together in value.  Open up those little oddly proportioned arms and embrace that fact.

Finally, the last reason why you should punt catcher.  Bengie Molina.  He’s available in every draft.  Always is.  No one drafts this Flying Molina Brother until around the 15th round.  His stats last year were 52/20/80/.265.  Victor Martinez’s stats were 88/23/108/.303/1; he gets drafted 23rd overall, according to Mock Draft Central.  The difference between the two was 36/3/28, some average and a steal.  Flying whoop.  With Adrian Gonzalez, who gets drafted right around V-Mart’s spot, vs. Jorge Cantu, a 1st baseman around Bengie’s spot, the difference is 24 homers.  A shortstop comparison would be Rollins vs. Yunel.  A pitcher comparison would be F-Her vs. Ryan Dempster.  At catcher, you can get away with not having a top one and it won’t hurt your team as much.  No pepper games allowed, but you can always punt catcher.