Fantasy Baseball Advice

Some people will tell you Giancarlo Stanton‘s plate discipline has improved while in the majors and that his comps suggest further reduction in K% and growth in BB%.  Most will boast he’s one of a Lilliputian handful of players with a legitimate shot at 40+ HR and that he has room to improve on his power.  Many will point to the improved lineup around him as RBI and R opportunities waiting to sustain your fantasy team like mana (or homers) from heaven.  Some will note his career BABIP is high, but that it’s because he’s got plus speed for a 6-5, 235 pound hunk of beef and can chip in a few SBs.  While I’ve never seen a steak plow through a catcher or slide willingly onto my plate, I can tell you the majority of these people are right about Giancarlo Stanton.

What other people probably will NOT do, is SHOW you what Stanton can do and how freakin’ cool his shizz is. Haha! HA!  Sorry, I lost it for a second.  Below is a diagram of Giancarlo Stanton’s HRs from 2010 and 2011 based on data from hittrackeronline.com and park info from the interwebs. The Marlins Park walls are outlined, along with foul lines, distance tickers, the whole shebang… The light colored dots are dongs from 2010, the fully opaque dots 2011 bombs. The blue dots are away dingers, the red dots home, homers on the range in Sun Life Stadium, and the annoying little piggy on TV went “Wee, whee, whee!” all the way back into your memory. Wait for it…

Ain’t that a pretty cupcake with little, patriotic jimmies on top? As I’ve commented before, the new Marlins Park is roughly comparable to Petco in physical dimension (read: BIG). I’ve not seen official documentation of the wall heights, but from the photos it sure looks like more than 8 feet, unless your tape uses Stanton feet. It appears to be mostly around a dozen human feet, but slopes up from the right side power alley to as high as 20. Where? Right out in the deepest part of center by the wacky, leaping Marlin homer sculpture. While we can’t be sure what effect the wind (or lack thereof) may have when the roof’s open (or closed), we can get a rough idea how he might have fared playing in this new park.

In 2010, there’s one that probably would have been an out to left in the new park. The others look like they should have been smooth sailing.  In 2011, we see one more likely out to left, while the duo to straight away center probably would’ve been doubles. Another pair are pretty close on the lower walls to left and right, but the rest are golden with no Teal Monster staring down left center.

All in all, he might’ve lost as many HRs as Antonio Alfonseca can count on one hand; a few doubled down and a few loud outs. He also pulled less in 2011, so that could be trouble for center field shots. But, and in Miami you’ll see lots of those, you’ll also notice the darker dots trend further out than the lighter ones. If the majority of these people and me are right about Giancarlo, I’m pretty certain we’ll get to see wacky, leaping marlins aplenty in 2012.

Unlike with real baseball, it can unequivocally be said that fantasy baseball is 50% about hitting and 50% about pitching.  Yet it is close to a foregone conclusion that fantasy baseball drafters should invest disproportionately in hitters vs. pitchers.  If someone were to draft a pitcher in the first round or three in the first five rounds, the average fantasy baseball player would scoff at them (scoff I say!).

Why is this the case?  Here are some theories…

1. Hitters have more perceived (and maybe actual) reliability than starting pitchers.
2. The possibility that a hitter could provide value across 5 categories increases their perceived value vs. starting pitchers who could only contribute in 4 categories.  (Note:  Only 11 hitters were at least average in all 5 categories according to 12-team 2011 Point Shares (which factors position) - Kemp, Ellsbury, Braun, Bautista, Pujols, Pedroia, Upton, Votto, CarGo, Gordon, Francoeur)
3. Most fantasy baseball writers/experts primarily play deeper league formats like AL/NL-only where playing time becomes an additional variable favoring hitters.  (e.g., worst case, you can always fill a pitching spot with a middle reliever whereas there are a finite amount of hitters who get 3+ games a week).  This influenced early adopters of 12-team mixed leagues and had a snowball effect on ADPs.
4. A perception that starting pitchers are easier to a) pick up via free agency and/or b) draft in bulk or stream pitchers and play the match-ups.
5. It’s a clear preference of fantasy baseball participants who feel more confident in their ability to successfully draft late-round pitchers and pitchers off waivers.

For this post, I’m going to focus on point #1 but I might do a follow-up post to focus on #4 (which I think has some merit – PARTICULARLY the ‘b’ point).

I am also going to focus on the ESPN default roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P) for this post but it should translate very well to two catcher leagues as well.  This is the first year I’ve estimated Point Shares for the standard Yahoo! format so I can only theorize what the best mix would be for that format.

Lastly, it is a lot easier describing this hitter/pitcher mix for auction leagues vs. snake drafts.  By converting draft picks into auction dollars, however, we can handle both draft formats at once.

So here’s the question I’m trying to solve:

For 12-team MLB leagues, do hitters provide more reliability than pitchers and, if so, what would be the optimal hitter/pitcher investment during the draft to exploit any opponent draft bias?

The most well-known hitter/pitcher ratio is $180 hitter /$80 pitcher which – in the ESPN format – represents about $26 shifted from pitchers to hitters (13/22*260=$153.63).  This tends to be the average in expert AL/NL-only leagues – for instance, the 2012 AL LABR ended up with a $182.50 average and $181.50 median hitter investment (note: that’s a 2 catcher league where the average 2nd catcher got $4).  FWIW, our 2011 NL-only LABR draft was a $179/$81 mix.

The closest ‘expert league’ format to the 12-team MLB format is the 15-team MLB format.  The 2011 Tout Wars mixed league averaged $178 for hitters so the $180/$80 ratio seems to hold true.

Interestingly, when I converted the current ADP for ESPN and Yahoo to auction dollars, both ended up with a 167/93 hitter/pitcher mix.  The 2011 Razzball Commenter League ADP came out to 178/82.  So, consciously or not, the average ESPN/Yahoo snake drafter invests more in pitchers than the average auction drafter.

To test the  optimal hitter/pitcher mix, I did the following:

• Took my preseason projected Point Shares for 2010 and 2011.
• Adjusted the auction dollar estimates based on the following mixes:  153/106 (even), 160/100, 165/95, 170/90, 175/85, 180/80, and 2011 Razzball Commenter League ADP.  Re-ranked based on those adjusted $ figures.
• Created a weight for every draft pick based on the $ estimates observed in preseason data (to avoid over-crediting top picks because no one could predict a season like 2011 Matt Kemp)
• Multiplied each weight against the estimated $ value for each player based on 2010/2011 end of year Point Shares.  Any player with negative value for the year – either because of injury or incompetence – was credited with a zero.  I tried two different weights – one proportional to the ranking (20.0 for #1, 19.9 for #2….0.1 for #200) and one that mirrors auction $ proportions ($40 for #1…$5 for #200)
• Added up these weighted $ values for the top 200 players.

For instance, let’s say Albert Pujols was the #1 pick, was worth $35 based on end of year Point Shares, and the 1st pick receives a weight of 20.0.  Player ‘Barely Rosterable’ was worth $2 and was the 200th pick in the draft which receives a 0.1 weight.  Pujols would be worth $700 ($35*20) to the end sum whereas ‘Barely Rosterable’ would only contribute 20 cents ($2*0.1).  This might seem extreme but it ensures that rankings that projects a valuable player earlier in the draft should be credited more and vice versa when non-valuable players are ranked earlier.

This test does not factor in real-world drafting – just testing how successful each of the hitter/pitcher-weighted rankings perform based on league parameters.

Here are the summarized results:

*ADP is based on Mock Draft Central for 2010 and Razzball Commenter Leagues for 2011.

While I’m not sure these results are statistically significant, the success of the even hitter/pitcher split (154/106) vs. the extreme hitter/pitcher splits (175-180 hitter/85-90 pitcher) at least directionally refutes the theory that hitters provide more reliability.

It is more difficult to determine the optimal draft strategy for a real-like 12-team MLB draft given draft room dynamics.  The biggest challenge with 154/106 is that you constantly have SPs at the top of your draft board.  Even if Justin Verlander warrants a 1st round pick, you will get less value than if you can get him in the 2nd round or a comparable pitcher in the 3rd round.  (Here’s a recent post I read that goes into more detail on the topic of market vs. performance value in fantasy baseball.).

I have found that for 12-14 team MLB leagues, a 165/95 split provides the best balance of market and performance value.  This works best in auction leagues as it delivers not only a strong pitching staff but the fairly conservative hitter $ values help provide discipline in early rounds when some drafters pay premiums for top hitters, resulting in strong hitter bargains later in drafts.  The above would also hold true for snake drafts where drafters skew heavily towards hitters.

For typical snake drafts – where ADP seems to be indicating a more moderate skew towards hitters – I think you can succeed with just about any hitter/pitcher mix – as long as you are getting value with each draft pick.  (I still prefer 165/95.)  If you’re going 180/80, you can’t then exceed your already inflated hitter auction values/rankings and you have to be really disciplined in your pitcher selections.  I’ve also found that some fantasy baseball players feel more confident in finding waiver wire value in certain positions.  I think this is fine to factor into how you weight your hitter/pitcher mix but realize that the positions that seem to have the most depth on the waiver wire (OF, SP, RP) are also the ones where you will face the most competition (since there are more roster spots for these players).  My preference is to find positions where there will be little waiver competition – 2B/SS/3B and C in one-catcher leagues seem to be the best.

Head-to-Head, or H2H if you’re into abbreviations that look like R&B groups, doesn’t change a lot from our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  There are 300 billion suns in the Milky Way galaxy.  There are 100s of billions of galaxies in the universe.  There are at least 256,000 planets exactly like Earth.  Yet, there’s one Albert Pujols.  (Though Palbert Ujols on Planet Crimea is pretty good too.)  The strategy to play H2H changes.  You aren’t hoping Lind hits 30 homers by October, but whether or not he’ll hit two homers on Sunday or if you should sit him to try and win steals.  It’s all about the match-ups, y’all!  So you want to build a team that can match up well with any other team.  (FYI, I’ve gone over this stuff before, but some of you might need a pine tree refresher hung from your rear view.)  Anyway, let’s look at some H2H fantasy baseball draft strategy:

1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.

This is not to say a guy who is DL’d.  They go on the DL and that’s fine because then you can replace them.  Nagging injuries?  Whole different bailiwick.  You put Rickie Weeks on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone.  Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple.  Go ahead, look behind you.  Yeah, that’s me.  What’s up?  Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as a player nurses his hammy day-to-day.  BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.

2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.

What’s Bourn or Nyjer Morgan et al going to get you?  2 steals per week?  They’re not going to win you steals.  So you’re going to get 3 steals from Bourn one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway.  Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too.  You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet.  See what those steal-only guys get you?  That doesn’t mean to punt these categories.  It means draft a balanced team.  Guys that will get you speed and power.  Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it.  If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category.  Are they giving you categories?  No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories.  There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).

3. Starters, Starters, Starters…

If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity.  Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy.  Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA.  Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing.  Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing.  So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter.  Then another starter, then another.  Take them until you can’t take anymore.  This also means to wait even longer for starters.  Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained.  You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.

4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.

Don’t like Mike Carp’s match-ups this week.  Then, as CT from MTV’s The Challenge used to say, carpe diem and grab a different player off waivers.  I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced.  Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid.  To mix metaphors with nonsense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.

In the NFL, every GM has a cheat sheet to help determine the value of a draft pick.  It was started by Jimmy Johnson during his Cowboy heyday and I imagine that every NFL GM has some egghead on staff who has a slightly different value for each draft pick.  This comes in handy when draft picks are exchanged or traded.

Since some fantasy baseball leagues allow you to exchange/trade draft picks (and I’ve gotten various related questions throughout the years), I built the below cheat sheet using the average projected auction values for players who ranked within the draft range – e.g., $36 under MLB 10 team for picks 1-5 was derived by averaging the top 5 dollar values on the 2012 10-team Point Shares (http://razzball.com/2012-point-shares-10-team-mlb-espn-roster/).

Notes:

• These values are the same regardless of Roto vs. H2H
• ESPN = C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9P, Yahoo!=C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/8 SP, AL/NL-only is ESPN format with a 2nd catcher
• For keeper leagues, there are a number of variables that would need accounting for including: 1) number of keepers, 2) are they dollars or draft picks, etc.  If you put a gun to my head and asked for my general guidance, I’d say (after crapping my pants) to add up all the keepers in the league and then start at that draft pick range.  So if you’re in a 12-team league with 5 keepers/team, the first round is worth an average of $16.

Last time, on Nerd TV we looked at some SP whose actual Ks didn’t jive with their expected Ks from last season. That’s 2011, for those of you traveling through time while reading this. In case you can’t read minds or remember 70 random characters at a time, I’ve used this formula for the expected Ks:

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.

If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.

RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.

Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.

Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.

Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.

Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.

Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.

Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.

Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.

Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.

Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.

Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.

There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.

RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…

Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.

Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4
“Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”

Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.

Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.