Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jake Peavy limped away into the sunset with a walking cast and a .98 difference between his ERA and his FIP, which means his ERA could’ve been below a 3 when he went down.  Pardon me as I cry into a bowl of beer-battered onion rings.  Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and a frozen Ted Williams are standing on a cloud somewhere mocking us.  Baseball gods, why didn’t you take Joe Blanton?  Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs.  If your guy is on the list, there’s hope.  Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing.  Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you! (FYI, I did this on Sunday, so the numbers may be slightly off, but the gist remains.  Oh, and loved loved loved what Merchant Ivory did with The Gist Remains.)

Jorge de la Rosa – 1.89.  Member what I said two sentences ago about trading for these guys?  Yeah, ignore that for this guy.  He’s a very risky starter.  Caveat Jorge.

Carl Pavano – 1.63.  Has a 5.73 ERA and a 4.10 FIP.  Hmm… Are these buy lows?  Or just “Continue to Ignores?”  Good question, Razzball reader.  I’m ignoring Pavano.

Andy Sonnanstine – 1.25.  These FIP lists never work out the way I want them too.  I’m not going after Sonnanstine either.

Francisco Liriano – 1.09.  How does that quote go?  Best intentions is a dish best served without any intentions?  Is that it?  Yeah, Liriano’s sitting on a 4.82 FIP.  So he’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s still not good.

Justin Verlander – 1.05.  Wow, he has a 3.39 ERA and a 2.34 FIP, while striking out almost 11 batters per nine.  I know, Greinke, Greinke, Greinke… but Verlander could win the Cy Young this year.  Believe it or not, I’m walking on air…

Jon Lester – .95.  Over 10 K/9 and under 3 BB/9.  Then throw in a team that will give him run support.  Lester!

Scott Baker – .92. There were some trying times early on for Baker’s owners, but his June has been terrific.  He’s still an injury risk, but I’d own him at this point.

Joel Pineiro – .86.  Ignoreio.

Gavin Floyd – .85. Has a 3.80 FIP, which makes him someone that’s worth being on your team rather than waivers.

Javier Vazquez – .75.  Could be below a 3 ERA right now… If only Cox could pull him from the game in, say, the 6th then pitch him again in the 7th.

Just to clear my head the other day, I threw on some bicycle shorts, jumped in my El Dorado and went for a spin.  Cause that’s how guys with a ’stache roll.  If you didn’t know, know you do.  Consider yourself informed.  As I was rocking out to some Don Henley, I was thinking back on some guys that helped me win leagues last year.  Xavier Nady –  Thanks, X-Man!  Jonathan Broxton, you da man!  All She Wants To Do Is Dance DANCE! Thanks, Jurrjens, we had some good times!  Hey, Jermaine Dye, I enjoyed your production!  Can’t feel the HEAT… Coming off the STREET… Hey, Jayson Nix– Actually, you weren’t much of a help.  Hey, someone dropped Jon Rauch, don’t mind if I do.  Why such a long face, Ubaldo Jimenez?  I’ll own you… In the non-biblical way!  She wants to party, she wants to GET DOWN! Having worked up a bit of an appetite for some meat, I pulled off the freeway in search of an Arby’s.  As I hit the side streets, I thought two things:  number one, I had no idea what waiver position I was in when I used it for any of those schmohawks.  Number two, why was I in Anaheim?

The preceding was a fancy way of saying, “USE YOUR WAIVER CLAIM!”  (Caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder.)  Who gives an effin’ eff in the eff hole what waiver claim position you’re in?  While you’re holding onto your waiver claim like Cowboy Jon from The Real World: Los Angeles holds onto his virginity, your leaguemates are going to be winning your league.  Because, guess what, Maverick?  Cowboy Jon is still a virgin and he’s like 45!

You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Matt Wieters comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing a catcher.   Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder?  Who are you, John Q. Law?  This is your job, why?  Wait, even better.  If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league.   If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him.  While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.  Remember…. Rebels been rebels since I don’t know WHEN… And all she wants to do is dance!

I went through my top 100 and top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball and I chose a guy every 12 or so picks to make up my ideal team if I were in a Razzball Commenter League (so 12 team, 5×5, 5 OFs, etc.).  Obviously this is a team I probably would never get, because each draft unfolds differently, but if a draft unfolded exactly how I wanted it, this is how my best 2009 fantasy baseball draft would turn out.  But, and there’s always a but unless you’re an alien, I held myself to the false constraint of not being able to choose more than one guy every 12 picks, so I still didn’t get everyone I would’ve wanted.

C:  Jeff Clement
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Alexei Ramirez
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Chris Davis
MI:  Mark DeRosa
CI: Ryan Zimmerman
OF: Carlos Lee
OF: Matt Kemp
OF: Jay Bruce
OF: Andre Ethier
OF: Shin-Soo Choo
UT: Elijah Dukes

P: Chad Billingsley
P: Jonathan Broxton
P: Adam Wainwright
P: Matt Cain
P: Jose Valverde
P: Josh Johnson
P: Matt Capps
P: Joel Hanrahan
P: Wandy Rodriguez

BENCH:
P: Chris Ray
P: Jason Motte
P: Octavio Dotel

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.

Want to keep your post-draft roster from being full of you-know-what? Work Razzball’s BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) strategy into your diet so your roster doesn’t turn out irregular!

I know I could spend an extra 20 minutes brainstorming an acronym that’s more alpha-male but combining  power with our strategy’s high fiber content makes me flash back to the old SNL Colon Blow commercials.

Okay, I’m done with the crap(py) metaphors.

The BRAN strategy is for snake drafts with only one catcher (proponents of two catcher leagues are the real tools of ignorance if you ask me…).  It applies for 10 or 12 team mixed leagues.

There’s no doubt you’ll find some differences between the fantasy baseball draft strategies of blogmate Grey and myself – e.g., he says not to draft a 1st tier closer where I recommend it.  How boring of a site would we be if we agreed on everything?    Just goes to show that there are multiple strategies to success in fantasy baseball and that you have to find the one that best fits your drafting and FA pickup skills .

Anyway, here are the objectives of the BRAN strategy:
1) Get as much value as possible out of our first 9 picks which means keeping flexibility to take advantage of bargains.

2) Remain balanced enough w/ your roster to take advantage of bargains at any position in rounds 10-25 – i.e., if you stack up on OFs in the 1st 9 rounds, you have to ignore OF bargains in favor of backfilling other positions (like pitcher).

Here is the plan:
In the first 9 rounds, fill 6 set positions (1B, 2 OF, 2 SP, RP) and 3 ‘flex’ picks that can be used on the best values across any position.  See below for the position breakdown – note that OF (2/3) means draft at least 2 OFs and no more than 3 OFs.  Also, any round projections for players is based on 10-team leagues.

C (0/1) – I hate picking a catcher in the first 9 rounds because 1) the stat difference between a top 3 catcher and the last drafted catcher are the smallest of any position, 2) no one is going to take an additional catcher so I know I’ll get at least the last catcher on my draft list and 3) catchers seem more likely to get injured.  If you’re going to take one, aim to take someone going at least a round later than they should go.

1B (1/2) -As my blogmate Grey points out in his Top 20 1st Basemen post, there is a top tier of about 8-10 1Bs (depending on how you feel about Youk and Votto, though Youk will get snagged earlier for 3B).  The first 8 of these guys are going to get snagged in the first 4 rounds (Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Teixeira, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, A-Gonz).  High-ceiling guys like Votto and Chris Davis will get picked one or more rounds early because owners w/o 1Bs will panic.  Solid vets like D-Lee and Delgado can get snagged any time as a team’s cornerman.  My advice is if there is a 1B at a good value in the first 4 rounds, grab him.  If a top-tier 1B is still hanging around in rounds 6-9, grab him for cornerman.

2B (0/1) – The same deal applies for 2B and SS so I’ll just write it once.  Middle infielders picked in the first 9 rounds almost always turn out below the expected value at that draft position.  Last year, Ian Kinsler was the only one out of 10 MIs drafted in Rounds 3-8 that provided above-average value (and, yes, that factors in position scarcity).  I called this before last season in a middling infielder post.  I’d look to use one of your 3 Flex Picks on either a 2B or SS and then grab the other and a MI in rounds 10-25.  After catcher, I’d say these are the best positions to punt.

SS (0/1) – See 2B.

3B (0/1) -This is a strange year for 3B.  A-Rod and Wright rule the category now that two of the top four no longer qualify (Cabrera, Braun).  No argument w/ them as your 1st round pick.  I don’t think there’s value to be found until Round 4 (Aramis Ramirez).  Atkins could be a steal at Round 5/6.  I’d avoid jumping at Chris Davis and Youk unless the value is there based on Marcel or CHONE projections – e.g., don’t believe Bill James’s projections on Chris Davis and assume Youkilis regresses after a career year.

OF (2/3) – Since the BRAN strategy is all about balance, I suggest breaking the draft into 5 segments and aim to get one per segment.  Think 1 OF in Rounds 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21+.  If you can get two high-value OFs in a five round segment, go for it.  There is no reason to have more than 3 OFs in the 1st 9 rounds though.

SP (2/3) – Similar to OFs.  There are some that love to punt SPs until Round 10 or so.  Seems unnecessary to me.  I’d aim to get at least one SP in the first 5 rounds and another one before Round 9.  Realize there will be a round or two between the 3rd and the 6th where a number of SPs are picked – get ahead of that wave to get the most value.

RP (1/2) – My ideal closer pick is something like the 3rd-5th closer off the board as detailed in this closer post from last year.  Aim for a closer in Round 5-7 that can be your foundation (and help with ERA/WHIP/Ks).  If a top tier closer makes it to Rounds 7-9 and you still have Flex picks, go for it and then you can focus on stocking up on OF and SP in rounds 10-12.

DH (0/1) – In a league with just one UTIL slot, a DH really hurts roster flexibility.  Determine what fair value is for a DH and then wait an extra 2 rounds before drafting.

The other day I went over my fantasy baseball strategy for snake drafts.  Lots of the strategy there also applies here.  If you ask me — and you kinda did ask me by reading this shizz — auction drafts are where it’s at, yo!   You get in a room with your best fantasy baseball buddies.  The guys you haven’t seen since last year’s draft.  The guys you don’t want to see until next year’s draft.  One guy, and there’s always one, has his phone on vibrate just in case the missus calls about little Petey.  He’s got the flu, ya know.  Then you have the guy who will go the extra dollar for (fill-in favorite player from his favorite team).  You have the guy who brings only Cheetos and then asks the host for some cola every 30 minutes.  Then, finally, you have the guy who made plans at 5PM and begins to yell at everyone at 4PM that they’re taking too long.  And, it always turns out, this day is the best day of the year.  Auction draft day is better than your wedding day.  As for online auction drafts, they’re not as fun.  Anyway, here’s some tried and true tips to help you through your auction draft.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say David Ortiz snuck into a 21 and under club with Esmailyn Gonzalez’s fake ID and took your baby sister home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Ortiz and let others overspend on him.  This is not to say you should let him go for cheap.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Johan.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Alexis Rios, go the extra buck or two.  You really need a closer and Hanrahananan is the only one left?  Go the extra dollar or two.  Get the players you need.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money, especially at the end of the draft.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you may want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out Elijah Dukes for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Dukes for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At the end of the draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Chris Perez, Capps or whoever is going to go.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.  I’ll take Hanrahanananan for $1.  Sweet!

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos and cola for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.