I was jazzed to draft Phil Hughes this year like I was from New Orleans and I was smoking doobs with Kermit Ruffins. Then Hughes hurt his back and someone played the sad trombone. That’s yay upside down, which looks like a fire between two teepees. Hughes is now out with a bulging disk in his back. Hey, Hughes, is that a banana in your spine or you happy to see me? I’m not a doctor (no kidding!), but none of this sounds good for Hughes. I’m lowering my projections on him and dropping him out of my favorable tier. It’s early, and there’s still a lot of time, but I’d be lying if I said I was still drafting him with confidence. I’ll draft some players that are mildly injured, but the injury needs to sound a lot better than “may not be ready for the start of the season.” Then there’s Matt Garza, who will be starting the year on the DL. This news comes just days after we freakin’ drafted him. I will now call him Matt Grrza. Whenever I say his name, I will say it like I’m a frustrated Lisa Simpson. Well, if you wanna ride the Garza Strip, be prepared for some bombshells. I’ve updated the top 40 and top 60 starters to reflect Hughes and Grrza’s inability to keep me happy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Now, it makes sense. That’s Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley sitting in bathtubs overlooking Mt. Rainier. “The beans acting up on you, Smoaky the Bear?” “Why do you ask, Ackalacka?” “Cause I heard bubbles coming up in your tub.” “Nah, I get bubbles in my tub when I get an erection.” The move to Seattle will definitely reduce injury risk for Kendrys Morales. Not because he’s now assured a DH role, but because he can’t hit homers as easily. Snap in an inverted W formation! Kendrys is listed as a Latin 29. If you think he’s 29 years old, I have a bridge in Nova Scotia made of smoked salmon to sell you. It smells and it’s greying on the edges, but it’s worth a lot in retail at the butcher. “Saul, I can get my hands on a bridge made of lox, can you resell it?” That’s you talking to your butcher. Kendrys took forever to come back from his limp-off homer, but finally looked to be in a groove in the 2nd half of last season (14 homers in 238 ABs). He’s a possible Zombino, even though if he’s really 29 that shouldn’t apply. 29? Ha! And I’m fifteen with the most beautiful mustache that your deity of choice ever created! Please! His numbers at Safeco aren’t nearly as bad as you might think. In 120 ABs, his line is 19/7/23/.292/1. I’ve seen worse. Nick Punto in any ballpark over the course of three seasons combined. That’s worse. I imagine now people will look at Morales with a real puss on their faces because he’s in Seattle, but, while the park and lineup aren’t great, he doesn’t have to worry about platooning randomly whenever the Sciosciapath feels like it. For 2013, I’m still going to predict a bounce back for Kendrys, even though I was thinking of an even bigger one before this trade. The projected stat line I’ll give him is 77/26/89/.272. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Jays started this trading season with a bang by sucking the soul from the Marlins, leaving them soul-less. Now they’re finishing up the winter trading season by reaching into the Mets’ chest and ripping out their heart like Mola Ram. The Mets trading Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey is the smartest thing I’ve seen the Mets do since they clearly labeled the foul lines during their 1986 championship. There’s no reason people need to be sniffing powdered limestone. “Hey, Mex, wanna go to Tijuana to get some Devil’s Dandruff?” “Doc, we got a World Series game today.” *blank stare from Gooden* “So?” I don’t think Dickey is a one-hit wonder (pun noted); he was solid enough since 2010. His last three seasons ERAs are 2.84, 3.28, 2.73. Sure, there’s some xFIP issues in those years and his K-rates in 2010 and 2011 were 5.37 and 5.78. This was not an ace. Last year, he was. He matched his insane 1st half (2.40 ERA, 123 Ks in 120 IP) with a great 2nd half (3.09 ERA, 107 Ks in 113 2/3 IP). He’s 38 years old, but knuckleballers age at wildly different rates than most pitchers. Phil Niekro didn’t really peak until he was a doppelganger for Phil Donahue. I mean, when your fastest pitch couldn’t win a SpongeBob at a local carnival it’s not unreasonable to think Dickey can still have success. Still, Dickey has nowhere to go but down. This is a classic sell high trade, so I say good for the Mets. Dickey is a tough pitcher to predict. It’s not surprising that he had a great year last year vs. the AL. He had a great year vs. everyone. In 24 IP, he had a 1.88 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP with 28 Ks vs. the AL. In 26 IP in 2011, his ERA was 2.08 with a 1.08 WHIP and 24 Ks vs. the AL. I think his Ks are going to fall a bit closer to his career average. Give him say a 7+ K-rate instead of a 8+ K-rate, and, due to Metco suppressing homers a tad more than Rogers, I’m going to bump up his ERA a bit. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 16-8/3.38/1.17/182. There is admittedly a larger margin of error in this line than I’ve given other pitchers. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m not sure what the L stands for, but Josh Hamilton obviously felt LAA was a good fit for him. What I’d like to know is how is California a bankrupt state? The Dodgers and Angels’ salaries combined are equal to the GDP of every country, except China and Switzerland. Mozambique couldn’t afford just Pujols and Hamilton. Forget Greinke, Hanley, Vernon Wells, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford. Alone, Arte Moreno could sell the Angels and buy Africa. Africa Moreno, that’s what they would call it. Burundi would become Aybarundi, Djibouti would become Dbootyhole and Chad would stay the same name, because that’s a badass name for a country, but Arte would put a country-wide golf course there, because anything named Chad and golf go hand-in-hand. The Angels now have Trout, Aybar, Pujols and Hamilton at the top of their lineup. October 1st called and said Aybar just scored his 197th run. Batting fifth, Kendrys could hit .220 and drive in 100 RBIs. Howie Kendrick… Well, he’ll still disappoint, but this is slightly bizzonkers to have three of the top hitters in baseball all in the same lineup. Trout, Hamilton and Pujols alone hit 103 homers last year. The Astros whole team only hit 146. Specifically about Hamilton, I could throw a lot numbers at you about about how his June through September were well short of his April/May. How his BABIP in April/May buoyed his season average. How not quoting these exact numbers but saying how I could quote them is a lot easier. Honestly, none of these numbers matter. I’d take six months straight of 5 homers/month and a .280 average. I don’t need a .380 average month with 12 homers. The bigger issue for me is you have no idea what you’re going to get from Hamilton year-to-year. One year, he hits 10 homers; one year, he misses 30 games; one year, he misses 55 games. Last year, his K-rate wasn’t good and his homer/fly ball rate was obscene. His swinging strike rate was the worst in the majors. This wasn’t just bad for this year. He had the worst rate since 2002. Mark Reynolds set a strikeout record one year and had a better swinging strike rate. Oh, and he’s 32 years old as of May 21st. He could be in for a huge year, but he’ll probably be drafted before I’m willing to look at him. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 92/29/109/.277/7. You think adding a top hitter to an already stacked lineup will make it exponentially better, but for fantasy it just spreads out the wealth, as the Angels and Dodgers should do. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Shin-Soo Choo makes the Reds lineup look pretty. No more will they have to search for a lead-off hitter with a solid OBP. I do feel bad for the guy in charge of explaining to Dusty why Choo’s OBP should be coveted and they shouldn’t mourn the loss of Stubbs. “Oh bee pees are fine and dandy…If you’re a dandy. I play a man’s game where hitters swing the bat like they mean it. You ever see George Foster take a walk? He would have preferred someone walk on his face. Hence… His face!” “But, Dusty, if Choo gets on base–” “I get on base by swinging!” “Choo not you.” “How about ‘Choo’ stop confusing me?!” Hitter-wise, this is about as good a fit as I’ve seen from a fantasy and real baseball perspective this offseason. (Pitching-wise, I did like Greinke going to the Dodgers.) I’ve never been excited about Choo (no offense), but never fully against him either. Indifferent, if you’re not trying to use unnecessary words, which is the least succinct way to say succinct. This slight tick up in value for Choo has me excited. It’s a small sample size, but he has four homers in nine games in Great American. So, for 2013, I’ll give him 67 homers? Nope, but a terrific lineup and ballpark sure won’t hurt. For 2013, I’ll give him the line 108/23/79/.296/20. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Doozy’s on line two. Doozy, “Yeah, I got no words for this trade.” Holy Crapballs on line three. Holy Crapballs, “What’s there to say?” You’ve Got To Be Kidding’s on line four. You’ve Got To Be Kidding, “Hey, I’m here with Doozy… Hold on, I’m gonna merge the calls with Holy Crapballs. Okay, HC, you there? You’re on with Doozy and You’ve Got To Be Kidding. What do you make of this trade?” Holy Crapballs, “Well–Shoot, Are You Effin’ Joking is buzzing in.” Recently, I went over my Wil Myers 2013 fantasy. Yeah, that’s pretty much toast. Set a fire to it. Not literally. It’s on your computer. The Royals are basically the guy who held onto his virginity for thirty years then woke up one day and said, “Eh, I’m going to a hooker.” Wow. I’m speechless. Sure, they have Frenchy. But, um, it’s Frenchy. Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery were only, what? A few months away? Sure, Montgomery’s lost some luster, but Odorizzi’s still a top prospect. He could be Wade Davis this year. Maybe Shields next year. Wil Myers, though, well Wil (almost stutterer!) is the meow’s cat. I wonder if the Orioles wish they had Erik Bedard still to trade for Myers and others. Wil Myers is ready to contribute and the Rays don’t hold back their prospects. He’s starting on Opening Day in the majors unless something unforeseen happens. As I said in that Wil Myers fantasy post, he’s a number three hitter, and a damn good one. He’s not going to give us a Trout-type rookie year, but those only come around once in never. He doesn’t possess blazing speed like Trout. He’s a 30+ homer, 110+ RBIs, .300+ average guy in his prime. Think easily fantasy 2nd round value numbers when he hits his groove. In October when I thought he’d start the year in Triple-A, I gave him the line of 40/18/50/.280/5. Now, I’ll up that to a full season of at-bats and 62/24/72/.277/8 with upside for more. Yeah, he plays in shallow, three-outfield fantasy leagues. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Twins said goodbye to Ben Revere, that troublemaker! (Not really accurate, but I’m trying to make the Winter Meetings seem exciting. Revere seems like anything but a troublemaker. Either way…) The Twins just couldn’t handle his gamesmanship and play-by-the-rules attitude. Makes them wish they could get back Delmon Young (they probably could; all they have to do is ask or simply put a cupcake near the entrance of their stadium and he’ll wonder back). If the world had a nickel for every time Revere caused a disagreement, the world would be in a deep recession. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Yo, Macro Economics Professor, I blame Ben Revere! So, Revere on the Phils is great for the Phils, finally finding that big bat to fill-in for Juan Pierre. If you graphed out Revere’s homers over the last five years side-by-side with Pierre’s, you’d have a big waste of graph paper. Revere’s over/under for power is 1 homer. His steals, runs and average are above-average, with the steals his biggest asset. His power is such a clusterfudgiethewhale that he’s nothing but SAGNOF and shouldn’t be owned for longer than a month or two if you’re lagging in speed, otherwise you will start to lag in power. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 82/1/30/.291/45. Remember, my projections are a plus/minus two homers, so he could hit one foul pop 400 feet backwards behind home plate and get a negative homer. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
So all the exciting Winter Meetings deals are gonna come on the last day? It’s like Frank and Zach from MTV’s Challenge have taken over the Winter Meetings and ruined them too. Give me back Evan and Kenny and CT! In the words of T.J. Lavin, they killed it! Sorry, I didn’t have any balloons set up to fall when Sean Burnett signed a deal. Maybe Greinke will finally sign somewhere today, or, dare to dream, Josh Hamilton. So far the Winter Meetings have given a run to your co-worker’s PowerPoint presentations on the Yawn-o-Meter. The biggest value change for fantasy thus far would have to go to Dan Haren. A guy who’s got a bad hip (or is it back?). He signed with the Nats. Solid deal for them. If Haren does nothing, whatever. They have plenty of pitching in place. If he does something, then score, or, ya know, no score vs. him. It’s the equivalent to a late-round gamble in fantasy, which appropriately enough is what Haren is. If he’s drafted prior to that, then people are looking at his name-value more than reality. I don’t trust him at all to stay healthy. One trade to the Cubs already fell through, due to his hip (back?; I don’t know — he’s injured in some way.) Sure, he’s only missed three starts in nine years, but presumably his health caused his fastball to bottom out at 88 MPH last year, and the hip (back, whatever) injury sounds like it’s still an issue. I can almost guarantee someone will draft him before I do. I’m guessing at best he misses at least a month of the season, and at worst he gets shut down for a few months. I’ll put his 2013 line at 7-6/3.95/1.27/120 in 150 innings. I’m sure there will be points during the season he is usable, and I will quote that line verbatim the day after he pitches a gem. And that’s me quoting future me! Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Yankees’ extra-bat-off-the-bench in the playoffs, Alex Rodriguez, will be out for six months, following surgery on his hip that is set to take place in January. Guess A-Rod doesn’t want to be out of service for the holiday season. “Hey, I got a date with this smoking hot, butchy female and she wants me to dress up as Santa and sit on my lap. Can we do this whole hip-ma-whosie Jan one?” That’s A-Rod talking to his doctors. Yes, A-Rod says Jan instead of January. BTW, I Googled A-Rod surgery and the first article was at Latino dot Fox. A-Rod is as Latino as Taco Bell. On the fo’ really tip, why can’t he go into surgery right now? He’s getting paid approximately four hundred million this year and he wants to delay surgery so he misses an extra month of the season? The $17 million that went to Russell Martin just shook its head, incredulous. If there’s a legitimate reason for the delay that I didn’t read about, there’s no legitimate reason, so don’t bother telling me about it. Maybe if Pasta Diving Cap’n Jetes would get hip surgery in December than A-Rod would, as well. Well, even before Rodriguez came down with the appropriate hip problem, he shouldn’t have been drafted. He’s actually done us all a favor. Now he’s pushed himself so far down draft boards that you won’t even have to think about it in, say, the 12th round. For 2013, I’ll put his line at 40/13/44/.263/6 in 300 ABs. He’s firmly in the “Do Not Touch” section of your draft board. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Braves dumped Tommy Hanson and his salary for a free agent acquisition to be named later. Imagine the Braves get Hamilton. Heyward/Upton/Hamilton, zoinks! Although, they are more likely to get someone like Swisher. Or maybe they can land international free agent, Juan Jablome. Heyward, Jablome, Upton? “Screw you, I prefer B.J.!” “Okay, whatever you wanna call it!” So, Tommy Hanson’s value has sky-plummeted in the last eighteen months. He went from a one or a two to “Is his shoulder ever gonna be right again?” It’s not the worse gamble for the Angels, though I still wouldn’t want to own Hanson in fantasy. He’s not someone I would take a gamble on until I saw a good few months from him during the season, i.e., I won’t own him coming out of drafts. For 2013, I see his line being 12-10/3.87/1.30/169. Anyway, here’s some more offseason news for 2013 fantasy baseball:
Psych! Before we get into the news, I just wanted to announce that you may want to take a screenshot… Shizz is about to change. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, kazoo. Okay, you’ll see on Saturday night (or maybe Sunday or maybe Monday or maybe a week from now or maybe…You get the picture.). Anyway II, here’s some 2013 fantasy baseball news:Please, blog, may I have some more?