Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lastings Milledge is about to get called up by the Pirates (We’re not your Pops’ Pirates!) and he should get playing time.  Shoot, I could prolly get playing time with the Pirates.  Is this still the head case that the Mets and Nats gave up on?  Sure.  Luckily, the rap scene in Pittsburgh is about as happening as Poughkeepsie’s and there’s no chance Milledge will high-five a fan after a homer, because, well, the Pirates have no fans.  Lastings Milledge can give you a two month stretch that looks remarkably similar to what Beltran has done over the last two months, or he can give you a two month streak where he looks like what Beltran should’ve done for the last two months.  Will Milledge suddenly be 10 team worthy?  Check yo projections at the door.  I don’t know.  His 2nd half last year was hella strong.  (Yo and hella were requests of the 18-29 test audience).  So Milledge can give you a ten team worthy outfielder and that’s worth a flier in every league.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Ty Wigginton – Hit a homer on Thursday.  Know how many homers he hit last August?  12.  Why does he get hot in August?  I don’t know.  Maybe his moon sign coalesces well with August’s sun sign.  Whatever the case.  Pick him up in deep leagues and monitor him closely in 12 team or shallower.

Kyle Blanks – The Pillsbury Fro Boy has been hot.  That’s your positive tip, now dance on the floor and have room for The Chubbster.

Billy Butler – The Moobster has also been hot.  I have my doubts about him for this year (I’m getting excited about drafting him next year).  But if you’re struggling at corner, you have my express written consent to pick up Butler.

Chris Tillman – As defined by the Razzball Glossary, a roofie is a rookie pitcher who fails to deliver on their tremendous K potential and, instead, abuses your trust and violates your ERA and WHIP.  If you need to take on risk, Tillman’s worth a shot, but you may end up crying in the corner of your bathroom.

Derek Holland – Shoot me now for what these roofies will do to you.

Clayton Richard – Latest HodgePadre.  Suddenly, he has value for mixed leagues.

Aaron Poreda – This trade makes him an immediate grab in NL-Only keeper leagues.

Adam LaRoche – I told you he’d get a boost from his trade!  It just wasn’t his first trade.  My visions of the future are sometimes murky.

Andy Marte – Father, I must confess, I’ve picked up Andy Marte in a mixed league.  You know how much I love prospects who are past prospect staus.  His Triple-A stats were apple-sweet this year.  When I own him, I can’t stop thinking about crates of Dippin’ Dots slowly parachuting into Africa, so it can’t be all bad, right?

Eugenio Velez – Hot and he has speed.  (Sounds like a young Ron LeFlore.)

Jim Johnson – Doesn’t he sound like a cult leader?  Jim Johnson states that in order to get vulture saves you must drink his Kool-Aid.  This will also help you shed your Earth skin.

Danys Baez – If you’re really hard up for saves and Johnson’s gone, grab Baez.  Though you may be left holding your Earth skin.

Matt Thornton – Potential vulture saves if Ozzie ever convinces Jenks to go to the Disgraceful List.

Kaz Matsui – He might be as exciting to you as the Jockular Sphincteritis he once suffered from, but he’s 4 for his last 7 with his homer yesterday.  He hit over .300 in 2008’s 2nd half with 5 homers and 5 steals.  Decent enough in NL-Only leagues or very deep mixed leagues.

Howie Kendrick – Not only is he hot, but if you pick him up, you can mock everyone who drafted him back in March.

Ben Francisco – Don’t cha just wanna call him Benji Cisco?  No?  Okay, maybe it’s me.  He has no value if he’s on the bench, but while The Flying Hawaiian’s grounded, he’s worth a look.

Michael Saunders – Had a .310/.378/.544 line in Triple-A along with 13 homers in 248 ABs.  Eh, he’s a decent flier in AL-Only leagues, but I just can’t get excited about Mariners prospects.  If he was any good, why didn’t they trade him to the Orioles?

SELL

George Sherrill – Unless you count Holds or you’re a MR. B., Sherrill’s not worth your roster spot.

Ian Kinsler – Yup, it’s almost that time of the year.  Kinsler’s missed the last two games and he’s never played in more than 130 games.  Washington has already said he will bench him more in the 2nd half to try to keep Kinsler out of the dumps, so far it hasn’t worked.  Kinsler hit .157 in July with 4 homers and 6 steals.  Now don’t trade Kinsler for a lanyard anklet, but you might want to explore some trades.

Jake Peavy – The White Sox didn’t acquire Peavy to rush him back and risk further injury.  He’s there for the playoff push.  This trade doesn’t suddenly make him healthy. Not to mention, he leaves the (really) friendly confines of Petco for a hitters’ park.  It’s not great for his value.

Victor Martinez – Nothing like a trade to the Sawx to cause a player’s perceived value go through the roof. Will this trade boost his value?  Of course.  Will his perceived value suddenly be higher than his actual value?  Yup.  Again, don’t trade him for the innate ability to spell Gewurztraminer, but I’d keep my avenues open.

Casey Kotchman – Nothing like a trade to the Sawx to… Oh, wait.  He’s now stuffed in the middle of the revolving cornerman door.  Considering Kotchman will only be facing favorable matchups now, it doesn’t kill his value, but you would need a backup for the days he sits.

Francisco Liriano – Member back in 2006 when you guys had the time of your life?  Frolicking around the park like the two schoolkids you were.  You’d start a sentence, he finished it.  You’d invite him to sleep over and beg your Mom to make his favorite kind of pupusas.  Well, now he won’t leave and he just wet your bed.  Stop lying in Liriano’s urine and drop him.

Matt Holliday is a sell.  Zoinks!  Holliday’s value does go up with this trade to the Cards.  But his value doesn’t skyrocket as it seems most people will now think.  Remember, this is Matt “Shin-Soo Choo Has Better Numbers Than Me” Holliday.  In the National League, where there’s better pitching and less Runs scored, suddenly Matt Holliday has a ton of value?  Way more value than he had in Oakland?  Why, because Oakland was a bad team and the Cards were a great team?  Oakland actually had a better OBP than St. Louis (though that includes Holliday).  Better ballpark?  This year Oakland Coliseum actually ranks above Busch for offense.  Holliday will suddenly readjust his sonar for NL pitchers?  That didn’t work so well when he moved to the AL.  Listen, I think Holliday’s a terrific hitter, but to suddenly expect him to cure gout is asking too much.  I wouldn’t sell Holliday for a box of Cinnamon Toast Crunch, but I’d explore offers.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chone Figgins – I don’t like Figgins.  He reminds me of Grover Dill to Vlad’s Scut Farkus.  More than that, I think you put yourself in an ugly hole if you have a 3rd baseman who gets you less than 5 homers on the year (though that hasn’t stopped me from touting Alex Gordon before).  But this is about something else.  This is about do or die time in fantasy leagues.  It’s coming up with fantasy baseball trading deadlines approaching faster than ever.  (It’s true, it’s faster this year.  Has to do with gravity or some shizz.)  So you have the Dwarf Planet (Pablo Sandoval) at third and you’re fine in the outfield with a bunch of big boppers (minus Richie Valens and Buddy Holly), but you’re stuck in third place and need steals.  Steals are the easiest thing to catch up in (saves being a close second).  Chone Figgins may not have been appealing to you (or I) on draft day, but right now you need steals and Figgy can provide them.  Or Bourn.  Or Taveras.  Or Ellsbury.  Or random schmohawk SAGNOF’er behind door number three.  Time is not your friend.  Do what you do, but Figgins is a very viable option if you need steals.  So… Figgy, give me one more chance…. (Notice how I didn’t mention his Runs or average.  His steals, that’s why you get him.)  (Notice II, this paragraph has more sidenotes than a David Foster Wallace story.  (You went way too soon.))

Chris Perez/Jon Rauch/Jim Johnson – Potential vulture SAGNOF’ers.

Matt Thornton – With Bobby being jenky, Thornton’s a decent vulture to look at for potential saves.  Though the White Sox have a pretty deep bullpen so it’s probably not that clear cut.

Seth Smith – The Rox are saying Smith is their every day leftfielder.  He could hit 10+ homers and some steals with full time play, but I still doubt he sees many ABs vs. lefties.  So his name is about as boring as his stats.  Talk about selling a buy!  Smith’s worth a spot in deep leagues, I wouldn’t bother with him in 12 team leagues yet.

Erick Aybar – Okay, Alex, Aybar Brothers for $300.  This Aybar brother has seven homers and a .282 average.  Who is Erick?  Sorry, that would be Willy.  Aybar Brothers for $400.  This Aybar brother is batting .417 in his last four games.  Who is Erick?  Sorry, still Willy.  Okay, let’s finish the category.  This Aybar brother is batting .483 in the last 7 games, has stolen two bags and plays every day.  Who is Willy?  No, it’s Erick.  You might think about auditioning for Wheel of Fortune.

Miguel Montero – Honestly, the D’Backs shouldn’t play Sndyer when he returns.  Miggy Pipp is doing work with his lumber stick.

Daric Barton – In his first start filling in for Giambi, Barton hit a homer.  Since then he’s made Nadir Bupkus look promising.  Doode needs to do much better with the time he’s getting while Giambi nurses his no ‘roids problem.  But all of that aside, Barton’s still worth a look in AL-Only leagues.

Chris Tillman – If the Orioles bring him up, and it seems like they will, he could be a solid guy for matchups.  Just don’t drop anyone too valuable in one year leagues because the Orioles schedule gets ugly in September.

Steve Pearce – Member when he went by Steven?  Ah, maybe I’m showing my age.  Pearce was recalled from Indianapolis on June 21st and has played once since July 8th.  Here’s what I think happened.  The Pirates bought a ticket for Ian Snell to be recalled, he said he was having too much fun in Indianapolis (I’ve been to Indianapolis; Snell may want to redefine fun), so Snell gave his ticket to Pearce.  Pearce should get some time at first with LaRoche outta there.  At one time, Pearce was a decent prospect, tis the reason he’s even here.  Tis indeed.

Jon Niese – I think he’s underseasoned like your Mom’s cooking, but he is in the NL and in Metco.  Matchups could work for him.

Rajai Davis – Rajai Davis is a buy and Holliday’s a Sell?  What’s the world coming to?  With Holliday out of town, Rajai could see more time.  SAGNOF!

SELL

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a sell two weeks ago.  With the Holliday trade, things are only going to get worse.

Kerry Wood/Chad Qualls/George Sherrill – The Trading Deadline Reaper may be cutting off their saves.

Ricky Romero – Really, I could’ve put any young pitcher here whose innings are starting to creep up.  Young pitchers will begin to get skipped and shutdown to preserve their arms.

Jarrod Washburn – Watching Washburn ‘09 vs. Washburn Oh-earlier in his career is like watching any Batman not directed by Joel Schumacher right after any Batman directed by Joel Schumacher.  Everything is pointing to Washburn being a solid starter going forward, but I can’t tell you to grab a guy that I wouldn’t grab myself.  I’m sorry, I don’t trust Washburn as far as I can throw him. (And I can’t throw him very far — I mean, look at my mustachioed picture — that’s actual size.)

Garrett Jones – Blasphemy!  I don’t think he’s going to hit another 9 homers in his next ten games.  That’s all I’m saying.  Don’t shoot the messenger.  (BTW, isn’t it weird how the phrase don’t shoot the messenger was out there since Shakespeare (thanks, Wikipedia!) then everyone starting going postal? It’s almost like postal employees felt too safe and abused their power.  Or not!  These are things for you to decide.)

Right now, Jason Bartlett has a 45/8/39/.347/19 line.  At 29-years-old, he’s flying past his career numbers.  Before this season, his career high for homers was 5.  He’s already at 8.  So let’s say the talk of his new jack swing is true; he can hit for more power now.  He’s still not hitting more than 5 homers in the 2nd half (he hit 1 homer in June and July in 87 ABs).  Recently, Maddon has batted him 7th or 8th in the order.  So the runs won’t come easy unless he eats at Taco Bell.  He’s a career .286 hitter with a .398 BABIP right now, so the average will come down.  He’s never stolen more than 23 bases in a season, but let’s say he blows that away by ten.  So let’s be optimistic and say a 2nd half line of 30/5/35/.300/14.  I ran an ultraviolet light over my bedsheets and it read, “That sounds a lot like Clint Barmes’s 2nd half.”  Thanks for confirming my suspicions, bed!  So Bartlett is a Sell.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Josh Whitesell – Speaking of -sells, but this one’s a Buy… Kinda.  Whitesell doesn’t have every day playing time right now, so grab him in NL-Only leagues, but everywhere else I’d hold tight.  So, I guess, that’s a Whitehold.

Ramon Troncoso – The only thing better than getting vulture saves for your birthday is getting vulture wins.  But I’d take some vulture saves on my half birthday (<–it’s tomorrow!).

Pedro Martinez – Already went over my thoughts on Pedro to the Phillies.  I said, “In his last 48 starts, he has a 4.74 ERA and that was in a pitchers’ park.  On the other hand, he has been solid for Ks even as his career winds down.  On the third hand, he gave up 19 homers in 109 innings last year.  Oy.  I would grab him in an NL-Only league to see if there’s a spark left from the midget era, but I’d hold off in mixed leagues.”  And that’s me saving you the trouble of searching the site yourself!

Justin Duchscherer – Expected back early August.  I’d stash him if I had a DL spot.

Garrett Jones – If you’re wondering about this guy, where ya been?  He’s now been mentioned in three straight Buy/Sells.

Jed Lowrie – Will return on Saturday.  In a weekly AL-Only league, I’ve already activated him.  In a mixed league, where I’m rocking Everth Cabrera, I’m not sure what I’m going to do.  I’ll probably drop Lowrie because even in his Sons of Sam Horn-deemed huge year in 2008, he had 2 homers and one steal while batting .258 in two-hundred and sixty at-bats.  Pardon me while I yawn.

Marcus Thames – Has 3 homers in the last six games.  He can hit 7 more homers in the month of July before he becomes unusable in August, i.e., he’s streaky like Spike’s hair from Degrassi Junior High.  If Thames ever becomes a regular fantasy contributor, I have the title, “A Thames Runs Through It” burning a hole in my pocket.

Alex Gordon – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite prospect that makes San Diego prospect, Nadir Bupkus, look valuable.  Boing! The best you could hope for from Gordon is a 5 to 7 homer 2nd half and 5 to 7 steals.  Those are optimistic when you consider he just had hip surgery.  Gordon’s worth grabbing if your corner spot is in dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Edwin Encarnacion – To answer comment #76, “I’d go with Edwin over Alex Gordon.”

Mat Latos – The newest of the HodgePadres.  He was dissected in a Scouting the Unknown a few weeks ago.  I’d grab Latos in all leagues 12 or deeper.

Brandon Wood – Don’t blame Scioscia, where do you put a guy named Wood other than the bench?  It’s the power of the aptronym (<–Word of the Day!).  So, how long you think Scioscia extends Wood?  Hmm… Let’s rephrase.  How long until Wood’s demoted again?  Week?  Two?  I hope Wood’s up for good and getting regular at-bats, but I have my doubts.  He’s worth a flier but I wouldn’t invest too heavily.

SELL

Jay Bruce – Since I had no DL spot, I dropped him for Troncoso in a 15 team league.  He might return in 6 weeks.  Awesome!  He wasn’t hitting when his wrist was one piece.  I’d hold him in keepers and deep NL-Only leagues.

Dan Haren – The dog days of summer don’t do him justice.  Maybe he’s part-Albino and he’s scared of sun damage.  Whatever the case, the stats don’t lie.  Not since 2005 has he pitched well in the 2nd half.  And that was following a season of 46 innings in 2004, so my guess is he tires.  From 2006 through 2008, his 2nd half ERAs have been 4.91, 4.15 and 4.19, respectively.  Every way you look at it, he’s not the pitcher in the 2nd half as he has been in the 1st half.

Casey McGehee – McGehee has been slowed by patella tendinitis in his knee.  (I went to college with a Patella.  Sweet girl.)  McGehee’s 3 for his last 17 and has sat out three games in the last week.  As I said all along, McGehee wasn’t that great to begin with, if he’s hurting, there’s no reason to wait around.  It sure didn’ take McGehee long to go from a Buy to a Sell.  (BTW, the “T” that I left off of “didn” is being boxed up and shipped to Mat Latos.)

Yesterday, I went over some 2nd half hitters.  The day before I went over the top 100 for fantasy baseball in the 2nd half.  Today, it’s time for everyone’s favorite 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers.  Or maybe these won’t be your favorite pitchers.  These are decisions you have to make on your own.  I can walk you to the fantasy baseball water.  I cannot drink it for you.  Similarly to hitters, players get in grooves or slumps.  So if a pitcher has been terrible for the last month, but showed flashes in the 2nd half of last year, he’s worth considering, but he’s not suddenly going to be great, i.e., recent history should be weighed.  Anyway, here’s some 2nd half fantasy baseball pitchers for 2009:

CC Sabathia – 1.56 ERA in 2008’s 2nd half to lead the league for pitchers over 60 innings.  He was ranked 7th for 2nd half ERA in 2007 with a 2.76.  Though I’m not totally convinced that we won’t be looking back at 2009 and wondering why CC was a 3.75 ERA pitcher rather than a 2.75 one.  Though, Part II:  The Return of Though, he does have a 3.67 career ERA, not what we saw last year in Milwaukee.  Though, Part III: Though Lives, he is usually better in the 2nd half.  Though, Part IV:  Though Part Three Confused Me.  Though, Part V:  Why Do They Keep Making Thoughs?

A.J. Burnett – 2.86/1.18 with just over a 10 K/9 in the second half last year.  In 2007, his ERA was more than a full run lower post-All-Star break.  In June of this year, 2.10 ERA.  In July — 2.70.  He might win 10 games and put up insane numbers after the break this year if he stays healthy.  It’s fun to be giddy about Burnett when I haven’t liked him for years.  I’m like a schoolgirl who just got a new Hello Kitty waffle iron.  Let’s make Kitty waffles!

Jorge de la Rosa – We interrupt the Yankees portion of this program to bring you a Rockies pitcher.  There goes my bounce rate!  Last year, dlR’s 1st half was 7.26 ERA vs. a 2nd half 3.08 ERA.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Last week’s Buy/Sell combed over Ubaldo.

Roy Oswalt – Everyone’s been telling you how Oswalt is a 2nd half pitcher.  I won’t belabor it; he has been better in the 2nd half for the last three years.

Scott Kazmir – Second best ERA in the 2nd half in 2007.  I know what you’re thinking.  I had the 2nd best list of fantasy baseball pitchers for the 2nd half until I put Kazmir on the list.  Fair enough.  I’m not convinced Kazmir will fix everything that ails him in the 2nd half, but since returning he has a 15:4 K:BB rate, which is a whole lot better than where it was before he went to the minors.

Francisco Liriano -  Wait, are these guys to ignore or own?  I’m so confused right now. Random Italicized Voice, I can’t just sit here and name all the top starters from my top 100.  Do you remember what Liriano did to sucker you into drafting him this year?  He was lights out last August and put together a 2.74 ERA in the 2nd half and nearly a strikeout an inning.

Bronson Arroyo – I know, you’d prefer to listen to him cover Sarah McLachlan than own him, but pre-All-Star Break ERA is 4.53 for the last three years while he has a 3.50 after the big game.

Ricky Nolasco – In the 2nd half last year, he struckout ninety-eight hitters and only issued 12 walks… That RN is just what the doctor ordered.

Yesterday, I went over the top 100 for fantasy baseball in the 2nd half.  Today, I’ll look at some 2nd half hitters who should be better than they were in the first half.  To come up with this list, I scoured the last three years of post-All-Star Break numbers, ran it through a supercomputer that’s bigger than your Peugeot, pasted the supercomputer-generated names to my shirt like dollar bills on a wedding dress then went to a palm reader to help me pick ten names out of the thousands.  The palm reader’s name was Erica Karabell.  Tomorrow, I’ll go over the fantasy baseball pitchers who have been notoriously stronger in the 2nd half.  Anyway, here’s the best 2nd half fantasy baseball hitters for 2009:

Mike Napoli – Last year, he led the United States and Canada in OPS after the break for hitters with more than 100 ABs.  Vlad the ‘97 Impaler and Torii are both hurting, which will help Napoli see more time.

Alex Rodriguez – Everyone’s favorite frosted hair 3rd baseman.  Hit 24 homers in 263 ABs in the 2007 2nd half.  Hit 16 homers in 2008.

Jimmy Rollins – In 2007, he swiped 26 bags in the 2nd half.  Last year, Rollins had the third most steals in the 2nd half (23) behind only Taveras and Reyes.

Carlos Pena – 26 homers in 2007’s 2nd half.  17 homers in the 2nd half last year.  This year I say he hits 15 to give him 39 for the year.  Why?  Cause Pena seems like a 39 homer guy.  Yes, it’s that scientific.

Pat Burrell – In the first half of 2007, Burrell looked done — hitting .215 and only 11 homers.  In the 2nd half, he hit 19 homers and .295.  There’s very few cheap outfielders that can hit 20 homers in the 2nd half.  Burrell’s one.  And as any girl from the University of Miami in the late 90s will tell you, whereever Burrell is, Huff’s not far behind…

Aubrey Huff – Hey, it’s Pat the Bat’s fingercuff partner.  In 2007 and 2008, Huff had a .686 and .875 OPS in the 1st half, respectively.  Then .897 and .964 in the 2nd half.

Alex Rios – Did you know that after Pujols Rios hit the most extra base hits in the 2nd half last year?  Stephen Drew (<– Bonus name!) was third.  Both in front of Manny’s crazy, hormonal-fueled 2nd half.

Luke Scott – Career pre-All-Star break numbers .241/.329/.461 — Post-All-Star break numbers .299/.386/.558.  I see it now, next March someone in the comments is going to say, “I’m punting outfielders and taking Luke Scott late.  I’m awesome!!!”

Ty Wigginton – Honestly, not even sure if he’ll get playing time.  So I’m not saying trade for him, but if he’s on waivers, play close attention.  In the last three seasons, his 2nd half OPSs have been .990, .841 and .915, respectively.

Adam LaRoche – What’s Dusty Baker without a 1st base, 3rd base, hitting, pitching and bench coach?  What would a list of post-All-Star break hitters be without Adam LaRoche?  Nada, nada, nada damn thing…