Fantasy Baseball Advice

Manny Ramirez and his brother from another, Aramis, are taking the summer off as planned. If we get in our “Way Back Machine,” we see back in December of ’07 that I said to look away from Manny. This was before the reports that he was in the best shape of his life and the Sons of Sam Horn turned the media heat up on the hype. What did I say to that? Bologna.  If I may paraphrase myself, I basically said Manny’s Manny and he’s not changing his stripes for an extra two million on a contract. In addition to that, Manny could have a big World Series game and get the extra two million from HankenStein and go play in the Bronx. He knows that. So Manny may get that Xbox Live Clause in his new contract and not even do anything until October. I’m sure Big Papi and him have discussed this at length. Papi, “Manny, you know we can phone in the season and produce in the postseason and be hailed as the best ever clutch performers.” Manny, “Papi, sometimes I get the urge to spork Youk in the neck. Is that weird?” As for Aramis Ramirez, well, he’s in a similar boat, but not an altogether similar point in his career. Aramis could coast until the postseason and the Cubs should make it in a walk. Frankly, I feel like they should move the Cubs to the NL East and close up the Central for the summer, but that’s another story. So will Aramis coast? I’m not convinced. Aramis has proven he loves to hit when the chips have already been eaten (or fill-in some other mixed metaphor). Late last year, Aramis Ramirez knocked the cover off the ball and I could see it happening again. So my advice is Sell on Manny and Buy on Aramis — Ramirez that is. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to Buy and Sell:

BUY

Masa Kobayashi – Joe Borowski is out. As I said yesterday in the forums, Kobayashi, Betancourt then Perez, in that order. Cleveland, as a team, has 14 saves on the year. That doesn’t mean they will only have fourteen on the other side of 81 games, but it could. Caveat Kobayashi, Betancourt and Perez.

J.R. Towles – Mentioned him yesterday. If you need a catcher, he’s on waivers in your mixed league. It’s a flier, people. Don’t drop Matt Holliday for him.

Scott Linebrink – Bobby Jenks is reporting soreness in his back. Could lead to nothing, could lead to a DL-stint — ready, set, vulture! You grab Linebrink because you can’t get enough saves, you greedy person you.

Chris Davis – I just wanna keep talking and talking and talking about Chris Davis, don’t you? Oh, mercy, mercy me. Does he have 50 home runs yet? I originally compared him to Dunn. Ain’t that apt? (BTW, “Ain’t that apt?” is the non-sequitur saying I’m putting on my first t-shirt line. If one of ya’ll steals it, so help me…)

Rickie Weeks – I believe in slow walks on the beach, especially in Wildwood, Point Pleasant or Belmar. I believe Hawaii offers Spam, shaved ice and not much else. I believe anything seasoned properly would be delicious, including dogshit. I believe in reading movie reviews after I’ve seen the movie. I believe Jamie Kennedy is a terrible person, but worse of all, unfunny. I believe the only day I wasn’t nostalgic for yesterday was the day I was born and, finally, I believe in Rickie Weeks.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Salty is catching more or less on most days and he hasn’t hit at all to his potential, but if you’re carrying Navarro still, you should be looking at him, because Saltimbocca can be tasty when he’s at the plate (<—-forced!).

SELL

Rich Harden – Not sure who you’re selling this guy to and he’s too good to drop, but the latest news from Harden’s camp (if he were, ya know, to have a camp) is that Harden’s going through a dead arm period and that’s why his fastball has been, um, less fast. (Isn’t it weird how his dead arm period is better than his injured arm period? You would think the opposite would be true. Or at least I would think it, because I just did.)

Eric Byrnes – Wasn’t that long ago that I told you to Buy. Well, the injury returned and now he might be gone for the season. Hopefully he can make it to Fox’s postseason broadcast team. *fingers sarcastically crossed*

Mark Buehrle – I’ve mentioned how I added him a month or so ago. He’s currently on the top of my “Most Likely to Get Dropped After He Gets Inevitably Beaten Badly” list.

Jeff Keppinger – I could’ve put Jerry Hairston Jr. there, but Keppinger’s name is more incendiary (Word of the Day). These guys seem like they’re falling into a time share. This hurts both of their value.

Clint Barmes – Deer meat sees your hot start and raises you a 4-for-21 slump and Omar Quintanilla.

Pedro Martinez – It’s with regret his name appears here. I loved Pedro. He was a triple threat — flat-out incredible pitcher, an entertaining interview subject and he carried a dwarf around with him. This… This Mets pitcher isn’t him.

Nate McLouth – Eric Karabell told you he would be the fantasy MVP. Seriously. I think ESPN even charges for this shizz. (I get it for free.) Right now, I picture Hater Bell rocking a Malcolm X hat and listening to Mobb Deep as he prepares to put Karabell on blast. Karabell, take these words and think ‘em through or the next rhyme I write might be about you…

I don’t like Brandon Webb. Why, Grey? Why the hard feelings? Did he have sex with your sister and then make you smell his fingers? No, you sick bastard. In 2004, I owned Brandon Webb in a league that counted Ks minus BBs and Webb had 119 walks that year, which is about twice his usual amount. I left that season vowing never to draft him again. So what did he do since my vow? He went on to become one of the top pitchers in the game. Did he become great as a personal vow of vengeance against me? Probably. Now just because Brandon Webb wants to be petty doesn’t mean I have to be, too. So while he has sucked dog balls over the last month, am I celebrating his struggles during Mojito Night at Case de Grey? No, it’s not necessary. A 6.05 ERA in June is bad. He knows. I don’t need to point out the obvious. Only 14 strikeouts in 22 IP is dreadful. In his last two games his ERA is 9.58. That’s 11 ER in 10.1 IP. Ugh and ugly. So this is great news for me because I get to see Webb struggle, but even better news for all of you that don’t own him. Not simply for the schadenfreude glee you get from seeing your friends miserable. (But that helps!) No, his recent struggles opens up a buying opportunity. Last year his Pre-All Star break ERA was 3.37; Post-All Star was 2.56.  His three year average against is .256 before the break and .239 after. I’m not a huge fan of trading for pitchers, especially not top ones, but while Webb struggles, there might be a chance to get him cheaper than usual. So if you need to get a pitcher, Webb should get better. Anyway, here’s some other players to buy and sell in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chris Davis – Mentioned this morning. How’s that for timeliness?

Fred Lewis – On one hand, he has a name that sounds like he should be an 80s sitcom character, on the other he has 6 HRs and 13 steals. Consider him a weak man’s 30/30. Say 10/30?

Steven Pearce – Starting to hit everything he sees out of the park. Pirates prospect should get a look soon once the Pirates realize they should be playing for next year. (Yes, they should’ve been playing for next year in March. That’s cute. Did you think up that one on your own?)

Vladimir Guerrero – He already made one Buy list. Guess what? I’m still buying. Not because I think he’ going to go 40/40 after the break, but I do think he will be better than he has been and his price tag is extremely low right now.

Jim Thome – I noticed he was on waivers in one of my ten team leagues. Hmm… Once interleague is over, I’m picking him up. As a utility guy, he’s that bad? (That was rhetorical!)

Wandy Rodriguez – Well you came and you gave without taking, but I sent you away, oh Wandy… Where else do you go to get your fantasy baseball and Barry Manilow fill in one place? (That’s not rhetorical.)

Ryan Church – He should be back this weekend from his concussion. (On a side note, I was hit by a truck in college, knocking me into a coma. Long story short, I was back within the week getting drunk on Lansdowne. The truck was bigger than Marlon Anderson. Seriously, Willie might have made a misstep chucking Church back in there the next day, but now Church’s moving close to pulling a Kotchman.)

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield hates you. He just does. There’s no rhyme or reason. He especially hates those who think he can’t play anymore. To prove your stupid face wrong, he will continue to hit and prove his worth. But Sheff has the distinction of being both a Buy and a Sell. See below why he’s a “Sell.” (Talk about hedging my bets!)

SELL

Gary Sheffield – He’s old and steroids are now banned. Nagging injuries become DL stints and “Sheff needs a day off.” It’s hard for me to hate on Sheff too much; Sheff talks about himself in third person. Grey likes that, but Grey also is not picking Sheff up in any league.

Carlos Pena – If Pena was dropped in any league while he was injured, he’s worth grabbing to see if he can get hot. But, like Chief Jay Strongbow, I have my reservations. Then again, I used to think George Michael was straight, so I’ve been wrong in the past. Wait, this sounds like a Buy. Yeah, it is sorta (Grey’s hedging again!), but I also think Pena will be a season long bust and if Pena gets hot I think he should be sold immediately before he gives you a .220 average.

Francisco Liriano – He might be a Buy again next week, but for now, I’m dropping him. He’s looked bad in his last two minor league starts.

Kurt Suzuki – He had two home runs in the last two weeks and now he’s a hot add. An arm wrestling match between Suzuki vs. Kendall would last for three hours with one of them quitting because of a broken nail.

Eric Stults – I loved him as Rocky Dennis. Is he some kind of wonderful? Eh.

J.D. Drew – He will break your heart, just ask Philly.

Milton Bradley – He hates you more than Sheff. Larry King seems to think Milton Bradley should add “Fun For All Ages” at the end of his name. I think Milton Bradley would Chacon the air from your lungs if he heard you say that.

Aaron Harang is not a bad pitcher. Actually, he hasn’t even been bad this year. (Okay, he hasn’t been good either.) If I may turn my hat crooked, Harang just had some straight-up bad luck, yo. You want numbers? How about these? His BABIP .335, that’s bad luck. His K/9 is around 8. That’s very solid. Three year ERA, 3.77. He’s at 4.33. So that should come down. He’s a workhorse, so that’s a lot of IP with good numbers. Going forward, Harang should have good numbers across the board minus wins; those I can’t guarantee. But chasing wins is a losing man’s game. (Hey, that was a pretty clever turn of a phrase. If I had an internet page of quotes like Oscar Wilde or Mitch Hedberg, that would be 17th. 16th would be, “Can I get an Amen, Sherman Hemsley?” and 18th would be “Dance With Me here, Orleans.” But I digress.) So what do you do with this Harang-a-tang of info? You go trade for him, that’s what you do. Anyway, here’s some other fantasy baseball players to buy or sell:

BUY

Robinson Cano – On my gravestone it will say, “I told you I was ill” and my legacy will be pimping Cano for two months straight.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Someone mentioned in the comments yesterday that they haven’t heard anything about him. Reyes has really gone under the radar for me. I only mentioned to pick him up here, here, here, here, here. The first mention was a day after his first start of ’08. If you guys (and possibly one or two girls, but highly doubtful) want, change your fantasy baseball password to what I use, “GreyIsFortified” and I’ll do your drops and adds.

Chase Headley – Kouzmanoff has done a lot of nothing since last year. Now he’s supposedly suffering from a sore back.

Jeff Francis – Very serviceable coming into this year until he was completely derailed in his quest to match Snell in a game of onedownmanship. His next game is against the Royals. If he pitches well, he’ll be a hot add. You’ve been warned. Or as they say in knitting circles, you’ve been yarned.

Jeff Baker – Rudy liked him coming into the year, then he fell out of favor (Baker, not Rudy). Rudy’s adding him all over the place again.

Kory Casto – On most days, he’s starting in place of Wily Mo Pena; I like Casto in NL-Only leagues. But remember, “Person who dance with Nats is easily bored.”

Jeff Keppinger – I wait with bated breath to start him in a NL-Only league. (BTW, it is bated, not baited. Check yo’self, fool.) Keppy’s about a week away from coming back.

Mike Aviles – Seems like people are falling over themselves to add this dude. I can understand it. As I’ve said many times before, when you’re dealing with MI, CI, UT or fifth starters, you want to take a gamble. There’s no point in fielding a boring, safe guy. (That’s not to say there’s no point in fielding a productive, safe guy. There is a difference. Figuring out the difference was my minor at The Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.)

Eric Byrnes – Nope, I don’t like him, but I feel like no one likes him at this point. If everyone’s zigging, why aren’t you zagging? Would be worth seeing how cheaply you can grab Byrnes. I’d think you can get him for next to nothing and he could prove a valuable fifth outfielder in the 2nd half of the year.

Josh Willingham – It says he’s owned in 93% of all ESPN leagues. Now I’m assuming 99% of ESPN leagues are drafted in March then the owners never look at their team again. If this is not the case and people have been holding onto Willingham and wasting a lineup spot all of this time, you are going to make me blow a blood vessel. Now everyone who dropped Willingham, you can go get him again.

SELL

Jake Peavy – I love Peavy, but as I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m selling. Call me conservative, but I can’t wrap my mind around pitchers with recent arm troubles.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – See Headley, Chase or about three and two-thirds of an inch above.

Hiroki Kuroda – He wasn’t that bad when he was in there, but now he has shoulder tendinitis. Punt.

J.D. Drew – With my hands in my pockets, I stood next to J.D. Drew as he talked to Manny. I waited for an introduction. They laughed about Youkilis’s party out on The Cape. Apparently, Manny read from his journal of poems that he wrote while in left field. They laughed and I punched Drew in the mouth.

Joe Saunders – I think he’s already been on a Sell List. Hmm… Well, here he is again, because he’s keeping up this unsustainable start!

Aaron Cook – Full disclosure, I’ve had him in a mixed ten team league for two months and have reaped a lot of his benefits. I know he’s not really this good; everyone knows this. This isn’t a “sell” as much as a “be glad for what you got and be ready to drop.”

Joe Nathan – I could’ve put Mariano Rivera here instead of Taipei Slinklo or any other top closer. (I could’ve even put Beanie McDougalston, but that’s a made up name.) Because at the end of the year, when everything’s said and done, do you ever look in the mirror and say, “I am so glad I had Taipei Slinklo. And damn my hair looks good,” or do you say, “I’m glad I traded Joe Nathan for Harang. And damn my hair looks good?” You tell me. Tell me!

Hey, boys and girls! It’s that time again to look at all of the major league closers for all the major league teams and all their setup men and all the heartache they bring. Yay! So I had this girl that I invested far too much time in. Like a third round pick investment. We date for two years and I’m blissful. I even Tivo her soap operas! In the end, she left me with a giant hole in my heart and flowery, bathroom wallpaper. I tell you this story because closers are just like dames. You really shouldn’t invest too much love in your closers. You lose a closer, just pickup his replacement or grab someone else’s replacement. It’ll work itself out. Anyway, here’s all the major league closers and all of their setup men:

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of no-brainers. Because they’re dumb as dog balls? No, because you are if you fall in love with them and let them break your heart. Trade these closers for needed parts.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Kyle Farnsworth)
5. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon, Ryan Madson)
6. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)

BRAINERS

These closers have the potential to save just as many games as the no-brainers. “Then, Grey, why make a different group?” I’m getting to that!  For whatever reason, people don’t like these closers as much as the above closers, so they can be had on the cheap and you can still get saves from them. Saves are what you want. Dur.

7. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez)
8. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel)
9. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
10. Kerry Wood, CHI (Carlos Marmol)
11. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Billy Wagner, NYM (Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman)
15. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
16. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)
17. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto, Matt Lindstrom)
20. Brian Fuentes, COL (Taylor Buchholz, Manny Corpas)

BRAIN FREEZE

Saves are awesome! I love saves! I just got four saves from Torres! Wait, why is Gagne coming back? Ow! Brain freeze! Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
22. Todd Jones, DET (Aquilino Lopez, Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
23. Joe Borowski, CLE (Masa Kobayashi)
24. Salomon Torres, MIL (Eric Gagne, G. Mota)
25. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes)
26. Ryan Franklin, STL (Jason Isringhausen, Chris Perez)
27. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
28. Huston Street, OAK (Keith Foulke, Alan Embree, Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
29. Brandon Morrow, SEA (Sean Green)
30. Manny Acosta, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, Skip Caray, ATL

So Francisco Liriano didn’t exactly solidify your fantasy baseball team back in April. Well, as they might not say in China, don’t throw out the baby with the bath water. Since returning to the minors, he’s pitched some decent games, but the most encouraging thing is he’s regaining his control. Right now he’s sitting at a 41/15 K/BB ratio. In most leagues, Liriano is worth a flier. Just know when he does return, you might get the obligatory crap first start, then you’ll drop him only to watch him perform well on a different team. (BTW, ever notice how weird ob- words are? Obligatory? That’s weird. What, am I being obtuse? And you probably wish you became an OB-GYN. Well, that’s obscene. High School Counselor, “Obstetrics? Don’t worry, you use a camera…” “Obscura? No, thanks. But if I ever have a kid I’ll name him, Obama.” Yeah, red states wanna send him back to oblivion. They can’t wait to read Obama’s political obit. Meanwhile, blue states are hoping he can Obi Wan their asses. Oh, boy. This bit’s obsessive. Obey Oberlin College!) Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Brandon Morrow – If he’s getting saves, you should be investing something. Is he better than Chris Perez? Is Chris Perez getting saves? Is he better than Heath Bell? Is Bell getting saves? I’m sure you get my drift.

Brad Hawpe – Even if you just start him against righties, he’s going to be worth it some point soon.

Khalil Greene – Rudy seems convinced the phonetically irrelevant “h” is throwing off his timing. I think it’s karma for being the only ugly mulatto person in the world. His early season struggles may just be one of the universe’s many unanswered questions along with, “Does God poop?” Either way, I think Greene’s overdue to turn it around.

Charlie Morton – He sounds like your Dad’s business associate. “Go get cleaned up. Your father invited Charlie Morton over for dinner.” “Aw, jeez.” “Don’t ‘aw, jeez’ me and put on your fancy dungarees.” I don’t know what Morton looks like, but his numbers in the minors were solid. 2.05 ERA, almost a K per inning. NL-Only leagues should definitely take a look.

Frank Thomas – Egads! When interleague’s over, The Big Hurt is coming back. He can be a fat-kidneyed harpy, but don’t let that cloud your judgment if you need home runs.

Ryan Spilborghs – Not so fast toadies, Willy T. is losing time in center for Spilborghs.

SELL

Ryan Zimmerman – Should not be on any teams. Even 10 team leagues that only use Nats player.

Homer Bailey – Maybe Ankiel can show him how to swing the bat.

Troy Percival – As soon as he comes back, start shopping him. He’s old and has already been retired once. For over a year.

Howie Kendrick – I don’t believe in guys who lack speed and enough strength to beat me arm wrestling.

Milton Bradley – At some point he will suddenly drop his ego on some part of his body and injure himself. You’ve been warned.