Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already looked at some 2009 rookies for fantasy baseball, such as Travis Snider, Matt Wieters, Killa Kahula and Brett Gardner. Now we turn our monocled eye towards David Price. It took some time for the Rays’ farm system to pay dividends, but, now that it has, it’s a doughy bagel. (A doughy bagel is a situation that is very good for its kind; eminently good. I’m trying to get “doughy bagel” to catch on so use it whenever you can. Thanks!) The best thing about this doughy bagel farm system is they are stacked right now in the majors and they have prospects in the minors. And the Jewel of the Tampa Nile is David Price. He’s bona fide as a character in a bad Coen Bros film might say. Aw, look at Grey, he watched the World Series and now he’s hyped up on David Price for 2009. God, random italicized voice, I hate you. Yes, there’s a chance that the World Series will have people overrating David Price for 2009. But there’s a chance he can be as good as the hype.

When he was at Vanderbilt (Did you know Grey almost went there for undergrad? You did? Stalker!), Price was some kind of dynamo. Price’s numbers are those of legends. Then the Rays took him from High A to Double-A to Triple-A to the Majors in 2008 as they boosted his Frequent Flyer miles and primed him for 2009. Between those Minor League stops he went a cumulative 12-1/2.30 and 109/32 K/BB ratio in 19 starts. He suffered his only loss in his Triple-A debut. Not necessarily a terrific sign, but it might have been nerves. In 2009, I predict the Rays will try and get Price at least 20 starts. This could mean he starts the season in the bullpen and waits for an injury to a starter cough Kazmir cough. This will shake out more in spring training. If you’re drafting for 2009 before spring, grab Price like a third or fourth fantasy starter. Think Gallardo going into 2008. Yes, I used one of the biggest busts of 2008 on purpose because drafting Price means embracing risk. Anyway, Price should go in mixed leagues some time around draft pick 130 to 140. In AL-Only and keeper leagues, you obviously need to be much more aggressive.

Before we look at all the potential closers going into the 2009 season, let me say this, “None of these schmohawks may be a closer by the time we get to May.” Sure, barring injury, some are sure things like Nathan, Lidge and Papelbon. I’m just saying that it’s very early to be looking at 2009 closers, but some people need to get their 2009 keepers in, so I figured I’d do a quick closer look. Anyway, here’s all of the guys that could be a closer in 2009:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for $10 schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, FA

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
7. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
8. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton)
10. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
11. Jonathan Broxton/Takashi Saito, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo)
12. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (Jeff Samardzija…. If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
13. Brian Fuentes, FA
14. Brian Wilson, SAN (Jeremy Affeldt)
15. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
16. J.J. Putz, SEA (Roy Corcoran)
17. Jose Arrendondo/Scot Shields, LAA
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
20. Kerry Wood, FA
21. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
22. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going to a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
24. David Riske, MIL (Carlos Villanueva)
25. Manny Corpas/Huston Street, COL (Taylor Buchholz)
26. Trevor Hoffman, FA
27. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Joe Nelson)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Fernando Rodney, DET (Joel Zumaya, Kyle Farnsworth)
30. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
31. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
32. C.J. Wilson/Frank Francisco, TEX
33. Jensen Lewis/Rafael Perez, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
34. Eddie Kunz/Luis Ayala/The Arepa Lady, NYM

I have to be honest, part of me hopes Kila Ka’aihue fails simply because his name is so difficult to spell. Does this make me an underachiever? Or does the fact I didn’t feel like looking up if underachiever was supposed to be hypenated make me an underachiever? Hmmm… Damn you, Kila Ka’aihue, and your impossible to spell name and your promising skill set! You got me second guessing my very nature! (Or is it nuture?) I guess things could be worse, I could have to talk about Kila Ka’aihue and Mike Moustakas. Maybe when Moustakas gets the call in 2010 or so, I’ll just refer to them both as the Hawaiian-Greek fusion restaurant, The Spam Kebab, which sounds delicious, right? Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah… Kila Ka’aihue! Let’s look at why you should be familiar with this weirdly, apostrophed name for 2009 fantasy baseball.

Kila Ka’aihue is a Hawaiia’an mash machine, poi! I’d be through the roof for this doode if it wasn’t for the Royals boneheaded trade earlier this offseason for Jacobs, which reminds me– What do you get when you cross a team that insists on cutting its Major League low $20-something million payroll with a team that doesn’t understand it already has potentially four 1st basemen? You get the Marlins dealing Jacobs to the Royals, a team that has Shealy, Ka’aihue, Gload and Butler. Watch closely to see if Ka’aihue lands somewhere else that can make use of a guy who had an OPS of 1.085 last year in the minors and 37 HRs in 401 at-bats. A guy that hit a home run in almost every third game in Triple-A should prolly get a chance somewhere. You would think the peasant Royals could find room, but they need to maintain the lack of integrity in their product — it’s the Royals way!  If Ka’aihue is sharing time, he’s nothing but an AL-Only sleeper. If he can find a starting spot, he’s mixed league material.

We’ve looked at some of other potential fantasy baseball 2009 keepers — 2009 rookies — doodes — already with our ongoing 2009 fantasy rookie series. Today (this afternoon, whenever you’re reading this) we look at the New York Yankees rookie center fielder, Brett Gardner. Gardner had 127 ABs last year, but he’s all rookie for our porpoises.  (Which reminds me, I found out recently my girlfriend went on a trip about five years ago and rode on a dolphin. The thought of her going for a dolphin ride made me jealous, even though she never told me she was with an ex-boyfriend. I just assumed that you go for trips that involve dolphin rides when you’re vacationing with someone special. Baby, look at his fin! He’s waving! This is the best time of my life! I hope he sprays me with his spout like you did last night! You don’t go for dolphin rides when you’re with some jerkoff. Dolphin rides are what girls do with nice guys. But I digress.) Brett Gardner may not even start for the Yankees in center field, but if he does, there’s a reason you’ll want to keep an eye on him for 2009 fantasy baseball.

SAGNOF. That’s why, faithful Razzball reader. Gardner has the power of Juan Pierre, and the legs of him too. In 1448 minor league at-bats, Gardner had an OBP of .389 while averaging about a steal every 3rd game. When he moved to the majors, he still averaged a steal every 3rd game, which is a lot of steals if he can play 120 games. His OBP didn’t carry over from the minors, but he’s still young and has time to improve. He could find himself leading off for the Yanks if everything breaks right for him, which would lead to a lot of steals and runs. Gardner is a perfect endgame target in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues.

We talked about picking up Travis Snider at the tail end of September, so you can imagine that we’re pro-Snider in 2009. (Or at least I am. Not sure why I always say we. I guess I got a We Complex.)  I don’t want to get the hype machine going too rapaciously (Word of the Day and I’m not sure it’s used correctly), but Snider’s most similar comparisons are Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. He can’t, obviously, walk on water as well as Jay Bruce and I’ve never seen him cure the Pox like Chris Davis. But Snider can hit home runs and strikeout like those two rookie nookie phenoms. When I went over Matt Wieters’s 2009 fantasy outlook, I preached caution. Take a wait and see approach. Travis Snider is in a better situation than Wieters for 2009 and could be more valuable in fantasy baseball.

Travis Snider September callup in 2008 showed that the Jays are excited about his prospects and they’ve committed to giving him a chance to make the club out of spring training. In the minors, Snider did exactly what should be expected of him in 2009 — home runs and Ks. In 2009, I think Snider will be a bit of a batting average liability, but I think he can evetually move past that. If he gets the OF job out of spring training, Snider could be a cheap source of 20 home run power. Initially, I see him splitting time with Lind and, if he can get off to a hot start, it should mean he’s here to stay. In AL-Only leagues, he’s absolutely draftable. In mixed leagues, I’d be a bit more cautious, but I could definitely see a late round flier taken on him, especially in deep leagues.