The stars sure do look pretty when they align. Our good friends the Phillies just happen to be very bad against right handed pitching (along with many, many other things). They strikeout a lot, don’t hit the ball very hard, and don’t get on base too often. In fact, they are dead last in the league in weighted on base percentage against righties, and dead last in the league in hard hit ball % against righties. Matt Harvey is a righty. Matt Harvey is a very good righty. Matt Harvey is a very very very good pitcher. The stars are aligning, I can see it right now. Happy Matt Harvey day everyone.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Yuck.

That’s the first thing that comes to my mind when I see the options for Thursday’s games. We are dealing with six evening games on the day, which is an OK number, but the options are just, well, not good.

Just wait until you have to select a shortstop.

Anyway, enough complaining. Let’s get straight to the cash, homie.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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If there’s one thing I kill myself doing in DFS it’s talking myself into starting a pitcher against a decent offense and whiff on sticking with targeting the stinkers.

Tuesday, it was talking myself into Andrew Cashner because Vegas had the game at a very low number, with Cashner as a slight favorite. I ignored the data that told me that the Giants weren’t terrible against RHP, especially at home and they certainly didn’t strike out much to boot.

I decided the Brewers data was too early to call, so I didn’t spend up to get Zach Greinke, even though the Brewers had been terrible against RHP so far and struck out plenty to justify any risk of one of the Brew Crew connecting.

Also, I ignored the numbers that were telling me Shelby Miller was a good play against the Phillies, again due to high Ks, low numbers on the road and overall and that Vegas had Miller as a heavy favorite against forgotten Chad Billingsley.

Sometimes you have to look at the numbers, trust your process and do what you have to do. It also helps to lock yourself in a closet after setting your lineups so you don’t do a last minute panic switch that sends you to the poorhouse.

So what about tonight? Despite temptations to roster a personal fave, Chris Sale, on the bump against the Tigers, I am sticking to the data and going with Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole at home against the Reds. The Reds are 23rd vs. RHP this season and 27th on the road. Mix in Cole’s #3 status on the SIERA charts so far and Cole is my pick at $9,500 for my SP1 Wednesday night on DraftKings.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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There’s a lot of hate towards qualifiers out there. I get it, you feel like the odds are long when you have to spike two rosters to make it count. I also get the sentiment that people feel like they get raked twice when they play qualifiers. If you can win a qualifier however, and you do spike that second lineup, that my friends is bankroll changing. I’m not saying to stop playing you regular tournaments or anything, I’m just trying to make sure you aren’t ignoring what could be a great opportunity to drastically increase your fun money. I’ll lay it out for you using one of DraftKings upcoming featured contests, the Slugfest. This contest is a $33 buy-in, $300K total prize pool event with 10,300 total entrants. Buying straight into that bad boy might be a little out of your price range, and that’s fine. Perhaps the Moonshot tournament is more your style, at $3 buy-in and 30,600 entrants. You may want to consider passing on the Moonshot one or two nights and maybe playing a $3 Slugfest qualifier instead. These qualifiers are 758 entrants with the top 60 earning a spot in the Slugfest. Roughly 8% of entrants will win here. Low odds you say, and you’re right. If we compare these odds to the Moonshot odds however, you’ll see it’s not that bad. In order to win enough in the Moonshot to pay for your buy-in to the Slugfest you’d have to finish 130th or better (winning $40). Your odds there my good friend are a mere 0.4%. Them’s bad odds right thur. If you have a lineup that can get you in the top 8% on the night of the qualifier and then just min cash in the Slugfest (a top 20.1% lineup will get you there), you’d walk away with a cool $65. If you’d like to turn your $3 Moonshot into that kind of cash, you’d have to place in the top 60, in other words a top 0.2% lineup. The other great thing about these qualifiers is, since they have such a bad rap, there is often overlay. Overlay is your friend. Look for it, embrace it, play it often to great success. Look, I’m not saying playing these things is going to allow you to quit your job or anything, I just want you to be aware of them. Don’t let a good thing slip by just because you heard it was bad, try it for yourself and see what you think. Now, let’s cover some plays that might help you win yourself a ticket tonight.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

But wait, there’s more! Sticking with the program here, last Tuesday’s Razzball Friend’s and Family DraftKings contest was none other than your humble author. I feel a little awkward shouting myself out, but hey, at least you know the guy handing out advice isn’t finishing 23rd out of 25 every night, so there’s that. Now, back to regular scheduled programming.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Greetings, my fine DK’ers and so that we have it out of the way, May the 4th be with you. See that? Now it’s covered so don’t bother me about it. I’m not even a Star Wars fan. There, I said it and I can’t take it back. I don’t care you’re still hot and bothered about Princess Leia in that bikini but I am sorry George Lucas bent over and took a steaming pile on what you divine to be a national treasure and then wiped his pimply butt with the money he made off you. I had a similar thing happen to me with the Alien franchise so I can relate. Alien: Resurrection? *Man dumping trash into trash can emoji* Nonetheless, it’s done, enjoy your new Disney money-making machine while I trudge on in the DFS world. So Travis Wood. He’s been pretty good. Obviously, that’s the only reason I’m suggesting him, right? Welllll, not exactly. I mean, do I love his 9.89 K/9 and his 2.28 BB/9? Of course, but there’s more to love, namely his opponent. On the surface, you wouldn’t think that the Cardinals are a team to attack for Ks, AKA the money-making tool on DraftKings when it comes to taking a pitcher. Their overall team K% of 18.2% puts them 25th worst (well, for them 6th best) in the league. But then you go and look at the splits and realize a hidden gem of a secret. Over 190 PA this year, they strike out 23.7% of the time versus southpaws. But that’s what happens when half your lineup are left handed bats and you force Mark Reynolds into your lineup because he is one of your better hitters against LHP. BTW, thanks STL for those two free Ks! Anywho, let’s move on. Here’s my scalding hot take on the May the 4th be with you DK slate. See, I did it again just for you…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Ladies and gents, boys and girls, gasses and minerals, can we be serious for a moment? I have something that’s touched us all in one way or another to discuss; the cold streak. Yes they happen to DFS gods such as myself too. Hard to believe I know, but it’s true. Since last Sunday’s post my wins have been few and far between. The worst part about all this is I’m not getting blown away by the field. I’m consistently finishing just outside the money. East Coast players (where’s my furs and gators?) like myself will be all too familiar with the old going to bed a winner and waking up a loser act. Your girlfriend told me you wake up a loser a lot, so you get it. But that’s besides the point, and they make pills for that “issue”. Just blame it on the alcohol. Either way today is a new day, just as it is everyday on DraftKings and with it comes new opportunity.

After studying todays pitching roster there’s a lot of arms with good matchups, at value prices. My favorite arm of the day, and one that will be in all of my lineups (GPP’s included) is Jason Hammel. The Cubs starter has been a good under the radar play thus far this season striking out 23 batters and only walking 1 in 25 1/3 innings. That’s some old school Cliff Lee shizz. Last time out, Hammel went 8 against the Pirates, not allowing a run and striking out 7. Today he squares off against the Brewers and all American boy Jimmy Nelson. The Brew crew has not been very formidable in 2015, ranking 29th in team wOBA, while striking out at the third highest rate (23.4%) in the league. Full disclosure time, Milwaukee has played most of their games sans their best hitter Carlos Gomez, who returned to the lineup yesterday, but the numbers tell me they need a lot more than Gomez. Fuller disclosure, Vegas hates my idea because the winds be a-blowin out hard to left but at a price of $7,400 you’ll have plenty of other dollars to spend elsewhere.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m going to have to wait until at least 9pm PST to see if I am going to win anything in a big ‘Guaranteed’ entry. Particularly because I am going to start a lot of players in the late games. The pacific time zone graces DFS nearly every night, making you east-coasters fall asleep before the end result. Today will especially be a patient DFS day as the last two games of the day are between the Rockies/Padres and the Diamondbacks/Dodgers, and I love the hitter match-ups in both games. However, I am mostly targeting Padres’ hitters. The Rockies are starting Jorge De La Rosa. In 2 starts this season he has pitched 7 innings, allowing 9 earned runs, and 13 hits. It is still too early in the season to focus on such a small sample, but the career BvP some of the key Padres’ hitters have had against De La Rosa makes for great late night plays. Matt Kemp’s career BvP against De La Rosa is 17-41 with 3 home runs, 15 RBI’s, and a 1.237 OPS. So no matter what, make sure Kemp is in your lineup. Justin Upton is 8-21 with 5 walks, Jedd Gyorko is 11-16 with 5 walks, Alexi Amarista is 3-9, Yonder Alonso is 2-9, Derek Norris is 2-2, Yangervis Solarte is 2-6, and even Wil Myers has 2 at-bats against him, one of them being a base hit. Regardless of how many career at-bats, I’ll be trying to squeeze in as many Padres’ hitters in my lineup as possible. You’ll also be happy to know that De La Rosa has a career 4.70 ERA on the road, and if there is a way for you to get even more excited, he has a career 4.81 ERA in 798 innings with a worse than 2:1 K/BB ratio in night games. So before you fall asleep and wake-up to an accidental butt text, get on your smart phone at 8pm EST and plug in those Padres!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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You do it every day in your regular fantasy leagues when you stream hitters or pitchers and yet something holds you back at times in the DFS world. You see a matchup that is exploitable for fantasy goodness and you use it if you’re in your roto league. Then you go about setting your lineups over on DraftKings, pay for Matt Harvey and Max Scherzer and move on. Where’s your sense of daring there? Of all places to get a little bolder, it should be in your DFS world. Ya only got one day to be Wright or Wong and as Jigsaw would say, ‘make your choice’. So with that in mind and with the obvious names already named so I don’t have to talk about them later, let’s move on to a good GPP play for today in Roenis Elias. First off, for those who aren’t plugged in to the MLB world, this isn’t a random call up for the Mariners. Roenis pitched 163 innings for the Mariners last year, finishing the year with a 3.85 ERA and a 7.86 K/9. All this to say, we’re not dealing with a random spot call up. The kid has major league ability and against an Astros team that Ks 24.2% of the time against LHP, you could have a cheap 7 to 8 Ks today. Wanna spend up for the big two instead? Be my guest but on a slate featuring 28 pitchers, I’m looking for the arms that’ll give me room to get bats that’ll put me over the top. And with a lede out of the way, lets turn to other hot takes for the May 1st DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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Today is an interesting mix, wouldn’t you say?  There’s really only one sure thing at pitcher (sorry Stras), and there are many stacks that I like. With six games on the slate (MLB Thu 7:10 PM EDT – $2 entry – 1/20 spots filled and Top 5 paid…), why not get a little bit of the action from both of the big stacks? Straight to the cash, homie…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this  20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

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It happens all the time. You love Player A, but he’s on a slate you’re not playing, but you love him in a tasty matchup the next day. Not many people know about him except for sharp daily players and you’re all set to roster him and count some cash. Then, disaster strikes. In that early slate, in a not-so-good matchup, the most non-profitable thing happens: He plays well. Not just well, though, but look-at-me well.

The next day you roster him anyway, hoping everyone won’t be on him but there it goes, his ownership well into double digits. Player exposed, and value play ruined. Cash harder to come by.

I’ll walk through an example about this phenomenon later in the article, when I highlight David Peralta, who people know but had slid back under the radar and hadn’t been rostered a heck of a lot by my count lately in GPPs. That situation is no Dan Uggla situation, who came from the dead Tuesday in a DFS REVENGE game against the Braves, but Peralta should have been a solid recommendation that now looks like recency bias and chasing. Se la.

Tell me about when this happened to you in the comments area and good luck on a very top heavy pitching day.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?