…with one month down, it’s no longer so big a gap (between leagues) that we should evaluate pitchers differently. The current league ERA in the NL is 4.07, and in the AL it’s 4.23. In 2007, it was also a small difference, 4.43 to 4.51. Maybe the designated hitter isn’t such a big deal anymore, eh?

Besides, using the word ‘eh,’ there’s about four hundred things wrong with this (you don’t draft entire staffs or entire leagues, you don’t draft every single middle man that is influencing these stats, you don’t start three of five starters in Citizen’s Bank or four of five in Coors, you draft maybe one Marlins starter, maybe two Pirates starters — I could go on, but I’m getting a tumor thinking about this.). So I’m going to focus on the most obvious:

The designated hitter isn’t such a big deal, eh? Who in their right mind would prefer to face a designated hitter instead of a pitcher? Heffin’ hey, are Karabell’s posts being written by Corky for Life Goes On? Sure, Karabell could shat on a piece of paper and win a FSWA.ORG award, but to say the DH is irrelevant is stoopid. (BTW, The FSWA has a mission statement. It’s akin to someone writing down rules for Rock, Paper, Scissors. Picture the FSWA getting together for drinks. “Hey, man, I’m not paying for your second colada!” “Figured I could sneak it through… Like I snuck Wade Boggs through in ‘87!” *Belly laughs all around.* But I digress.) In 2007 (I’m going to ignore 2008’s stats because, unlike maybe Karabell, those are the stats I drafted with. Not to mention, one month of stats isn’t indicative of anything other than someone who doesn’t know how to sort stats correctly), the fourteen AL teams placed in the top fifteen teams for OPS for the ninth placed hitter. The only NL team that snuck in was the Cardinals. Why? Because LaRussa, who’s cracked out of his mind, batted the pitcher eighth. So with current DHs sucking up the suck pot, does this mean it’s easier to face them than the NL pitcher? C’mon, only Karabell would think that nonsense. Or another way to put this, Karabell’s off his meds.

Then Karabell talked a bit about how awful some DHs have hit thus far. Again, it’s only one month, but we’ll let Karabell play with his Speak & Spell. Frank Thomas was on his list. The same Frank Thomas who Karabell pegged as a big sleeper. Dude, I’m telling you, you can’t make this shizz up. It’s like Karabell is not a real person but an amalgamation (Word of the Day) of whatever the interns are talking about while they pickup Kruk’s lunch.

Someone else who was in this list, David Ortiz. Now I’m not sure how I even missed this one back in March, but Karabell described David Ortiz as his pick for AL MVP! (Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was needed.) A DH who has off-season knee surgery is who he chooses? Seriously, this is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst. Did he forget when Ortiz had his best seasons people wouldn’t vote for him because he was a DH? Did Karabell call in his pick from Tijuana after a night of ‘ludes and donkey shows? When he chose Ortiz, was he eating a Sonic Coney that caused him to hallucinate? Does his high school bully still torment him and was giving him a noogie until he chose Ortiz? Please, someone explain this to me, cause I’m about to lose it. Meanwhile, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

Are all my leaguemates hated rivals? Nah, some are innocuous. The guy in last place who is starting Howie Kendrick for two weeks while he’s on the DL is no competition — innocuous. Some are annoying. The guy in first who streams starts and keeps coming up aces — annoying. Some are harmful. The guy in first that trades Kotchman for Prince Fielder — harmful. But to be a hated rival, you have to be a worthy competitor who is close enough to you that you can hear about how you screwed up a trade for the rest of your life. So I abstained from trades with Rudy for… well, ever.

So why trade now? Needs and it’s a trade that I don’t think could conceivably bite me in the ass too bad. I mean, I’m only giving up Melky. I like him this year, but I don’t see him suddenly becoming a top twenty offensive force. I think he could be a cheap 15/15/.285 player. On my team, Bill Hall will fill in for Melky, so it’s a downgrade, but not terrible. Most importantly, I needed starters. Right now I’m starting Jair Jurrjens with my last pitching spot. Now before Jair’s minions come out of the webwork, I obviously like Jurrjens, as well. But he’s risky moving forward in a ten team league. With the addition of Greinke, I’m not going to drop Jair, but I think I might have to at some point because he’s unproven at this level. Do I think Zach Grienke is headed for 20 wins and a nothing ERA? Nah, probably not. I’m just hoping he doesn’t take the mound in his next start wearing a rainbow wig, holding a sandwich board that has a psalm written on it in silver highlighter. If he does, I’m sure I’ll hear about it for the rest of my life.

RUDY’S TAKE

This was the equivalent of the Yankees trading with the Sawx. I don’t even like the thought of us trading – it’s like the episodes of Tom & Jerry when they were friends. But when I got offered M. Cabrera for a Royals pitcher, how could I say no? Oh, it’s Melky not Miguel….goddamnit. Larry King is right on about Cabreras…

Even with Melky, this trade works. My pitching staff in this league is STACKED. I had 12 undroppable pitchers – Peavy, Harang, Vazquez, Wainwright, Cueto, Greinke, Rivera, F-Cordero, Capps, Street, B-Wilson, Betancourt – meaning I had no bench slots for hitters. I lucked out over the first couple weeks as Kelly Johnson and Matt Kemp both had great days at times I may have benched them.

I figured Greinke and Cueto are lowest men on the totem pole and that the Zach Attack had more trade value. A swap for Johnny Damon with another leaguemate was declined. I figured Melky was better than nothing – I already got him on two expert league teams anyway. He can start for me until Bourn gets back on track and then I’ll probably rotate him in and out. My pitching staff doesn’t need Greinke – the only category I don’t have a 10 in is Wins which is his worst category anyway (after Saves of course).

Despite the unclean feeling that comes with trading w/ my bitter rival Grey, I think this is a win-win trade even if Greinke goes bat shit again….

I’ve never traded Asdrubal Cabrera for Matt Holliday to a foreign exchange student who thought fantasy baseball in some way involved girls. Yet I’ve been on the veto side of quite a few trades. It sucks, especially when you know you’re getting vetoed simply because you’re in first place and you’ve just made your team better with a completely fair trade. Last year when I got Reyes for Vlad, protest flags flew immediately. Was the trade in my favor? Well, I try not to do too many trades that aren’t, so, yeah. Was it completely lopsided and shouldn’t have been allowed? The guy needed an OF and I needed steals. When I traded Vlad, he had 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and was batting .355 through two months. Unfortunately (for the other guy), Vlad ended up hitting just 16 home runs the rest of the way, but that’s not my fault. That’s my good fortune. The trade went through and I won the league partly because of it.

In related news in the life of Grey (cuz you care!), there was a trade in my ‘pert league that sent Johan Santana to a team for Granderson and Ervin Santana. I was the first person to post a message on the board. I wrote, “Seriously? No… Wait. Seriously?” My “Seriously” soliloquy sparked a controversy, or I was simply the first person to see the trade and comment. Either way, the ‘perts came out blazing. I don’t think it’s my place to list the parties involved or what was said exactly, but I’ll give you the gist:

“This is collusion!”
“How dare you, sir? Collusion would take me actually knowing someone else in this league!”
“Collusion – delusion. It shouldn’t be allowed.”
“My good man, I made the trade and I think it’s fair.”
I chimed in again, “I just thought it was a bad trade on (the team owner who gave away Johan)’s part, but I never thought collusion. Honestly, I don’t even think there should be a protest option. If someone wants to do trade, they should be allowed.”
“Yeah, the trade sucks. But I guess there was no collusion.”
“Yeah, no collusion. Just a bad trade.”
“I still think the trade should be overruled because the trade sucks.”
This last part I will post directly what was written because it made me laugh, but I won’t mention the owner (but he’s free to chime in the comments). “I will weigh in a say that the trade is lopsided, but every deal is. Hey, if (the owner who got Johan) thinks he got a good deal and is happy with that crap for Johan Santana, then (the other owner) needs to be a car salesman! I’ll go on record right now and say Ervin Santana and Curtis Granderson are not going to be the answer (the new Granderson owner) is looking for. And, when it is all over, he will have traded the top pitcher in all of baseball for a SP with a 3-year average of a 4.84 ERA and a .263 OPP BA and a hitter that nets you about a .280/.344/.496 line with 35 steals. Hardly worth it! Oh, just because your child wants to walk into on coming traffic, doesn’t mean you let him for the betterment of society. Trades have a veto button for a reason. Most of the time people need to be protected from themselves more than they want to believe.”

So there’s the gist and a decent argument in favor of the protest button. I disagree with most protests (this crappy trade included), but there ya go. You can accuse us ‘perts of a lot of things, but dispassionate should not be one of them.

When it’s someone you need for your roster.

Stop pussyfooting around and grab the player you want/need. Remember the idiot Cowboy Jon from, like, The Real World 2 who was saving his virginity? That’s who you are if you think saving your waiver claim is a wise move. I don’t care if Jesus, Gandhi or Mitt Rommey told you to save your waiver claim. They’re wrong (in this instance only, of course). Do you want to be Cowboy Jon sitting there in August praying that Evan Longoria is finally called up so you can use your claim? Or how about you’re Cowboy Jon and you finally get to use your waiver claim on Jay Bruce in August and by that time you’re out of the race for first? What farkin’ good is Jay Bruce doing you then? Use your waiver claims fast and furious. While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.

“I just dropped Abreu for Kory Casto!” Well, I hope that was Tony Abreu, not Bobby, because I’m not saying you drop useful players for waiver wire fodder. Act like you know, MC Lyte! This ain’t rocket science. Use common sense, and your waiver claim. You’re welcome.

The participants are:
David Bloom- Baseball Happenings
Jay Sarney & Brett Greenfield – Greener on the Other Side
Brad Stewart- MLB Front Office
Geoff Stein- Mock Draft Central
Adam Ronis- Newsday
Mike Sessa and Chris Corcione- Pseudo Sports
Rudy Gamble- Razzball
Ken Mathe- Roto Advice
Eric Stashin- Roto Professor
Jordan Frank- Roto Rob
Sean Salsbery- Warning Track Power
Arnie The Regular Guy (the one non-blogger in the bunch)

It had been about a month since my first blogger draft and I hadn’t made too many adjustments to my rankings (move Pierre down, move Josh Hamilton and Billy Butler up, etc.).

My strategy remained the same – get the most value out of each pick and don’t leave the draft with any glaring weaknesses (harder in a 12 team league to fill holes via free agency – espec. in an advanced league). After running projections for each team, I feel quite strong about my team in all categories except SB and Wins. But with Pierre and Velez, I’ve got hope in SB and I’d prefer to finish middle of the pack in Wins than use crappy starters and damage my ERA/WHIP.

The only other observation I have coming out of this draft is a mild note of surprise at the number of reach picks that were made (vs. Average Draft Position). Examples include Kinsler in the 4th round, Zimmerman in the 5th round, Hamilton and Victorino in the 6th round, Carlos Gomez and Billy Butler in the 13th round, and Andre Ethier in the 14th round. It goes to show that despite all the mock and real drafts done by the members of this league, it’s tough to know exactly when a certain player might come off the board. I prefer to avoid reaching more than a round over ADP for any player but definitely respect a team going after ‘their players’.

See below for my team and the rosters of the other teams. Those in blue are players that I have on my other blogger league team.

If you are so inclined, feel free to comment on my team…

C (131) Jorge Posada
1B (14) David Ortiz
2B (182) Ty Wigginton
SS (107) Michael Young
3B (38) Garrett Atkins
CI (179) Adam LaRoche
MI (158) Jhonny Peralta
OF (35) Nick Markakis
OF (59) Torii Hunter
OF (86) Jeff Francoeur
OF (203) Nate McLouth
OF (251) Melky Cabrera
UTIL (278) Mike Jacobs
UTIL (206) Juan Pierre
SP (11) Johan Santana
SP (62) Dan Haren
SP (155) Pedro Martínez
SP (230) Andy Pettitte
RP (83) Joe Nathan
RP (110) Mariano Rivera
RP (134) Matt Capps
RP (227) Rafael Betancourt
RP (302) Hideki Okajima

Bench (299) Jon Rauch
Bench (254) Kelvim Escobar
Bench (275) Eugenio Velez
Bench (323) Kazuo Fukumori
Bench (326) Jonny Gomes

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.

While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.

There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.

Let’s get on with the debunking…

Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.

Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.

Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).

Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8

This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).

Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.

Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.

Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.

C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs

Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).

Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.

Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.

Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.

Yes, I know. BJ Ryan in 2007.

But here’s my top 10 closers going into 2007 and their eventual finish amongst closers in our 2007 Player Rater. and ESPN Player Rater:

1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)

So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.

But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:

Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th

So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.

From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.

While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.

Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).

Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.

“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…

Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):

ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9

The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).

For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:

(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)

So here’s my advice….

Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.

The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.

I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.

If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it – this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.

But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)

I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).

The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. Injuries happen. Carlos Penas happen. Ryan Brauns happen. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks. I know; Rudy Gamble just gave you legitimate reasons why you should draft a pitcher early. Yeah, and Gamble ended up with Teixeira as his second round pick in the fantasy baseball writers’ league when he still could have done his fahcocta “Draft a Pitcher in the first three rounds” strategy and got Peavy.  He only drafted Santana because he was determined to get Santana or Peavy, so with the fifth pick he had to take Santana. (BTW, he traded his second overall pick to get the fifth pick because he wanted to take Santana and he didn’t want to commit a 2nd overall pick to Johan. I would’ve liked to see what would have happened if the fourth overall pick off the board was Santana, then Gamble probably would’ve taken Peavy with the fifth.) Anyway, you don’t want to put yourself in such a hole on offense by taking a pitcher first. There’s plenty of pitchers out there you can get later on. You don’t have to turn your Ks to eleven, a seven will do.

2. If you don’t get steals in the 1st or 2nd round, don’t worry about steals until late in the draft or after the draft. In other words, if you fail to snag Hanley, Reyes, etc, steals will be there later. Don’t draft anyone because you’re looking for steals. No Carl Crawford, definitely no Eric Byrnes, no Brian Roberts, no Ichiro, no Figgins, please God no Juan Pierre. Cause if you think you’re drafting these guys to get a balanced team, you’re doing the opposite. Drafting one of these schmohawks makes your team unbalanced. After the draft, steals are available whenever you want them. If not on the waiver wire, then through a trade, because you know who loses the most value as soon as the draft is over? Anyone who gives you steals.  Speed guys are like new cars, once you own them, their value diminishes. After the draft, count the days until the guy with Juan Pierre wants to trade him. (BTW, Prepare yourself to go into the All-Star Break needing steals, because if you drafted all of your other positions properly, chances are you can trade some homers for some steals in July. Because, as we know, the guy with 25 homers at the All-Star Break is less likely to get 25 more homers after the break, while someone like Michael Bourn could get you 15 steals in a month.)

3. Never take a closer in the first tier. You should pay for some saves. Just don’t overpay. You need at least two closers, otherwise you’re scrambling the whole season. Grab Hoffman. Don’t draft Nathan. Not K-Rod. Mariano is a no go.  Draft Valverde.

4. Have your offense squared away before the final three rounds and never take an offensive bench player. You’re much better off with a middle reliever or potential closer than Brian Giles on your bench.

5. When in doubt, draft your second, third and fourth starters from NL teams. Self-explanatory. No DH, pitchers hitting, much weaker offenses. They bunt in the NL! Here’s a quick scenario, it’s your turn to draft and you’re trying to choose between Gil Meche and Chris Young, who do you choose? Wainwright or Verlander? Do you see how easy this is?

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy and good, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

There is one more reason, though, we should give thanks to the Yahoos, ESPNs, and CBS Sports’s (they’ve dropped the ‘line’) of the online world. Their employment of ‘fantasy experts’ that oversell certain draft strategies – influencing your league mates to make irrational and predictable draft decisions.

Case in point – this Starting Pitcher primer on Yahoo! Sports.

In this primer, Brad Evans recycles a common refrain: Don’t draft starting pitching early (this is after he canonizes Santana over several paragraphs).

While I think drafting only offense in the early rounds could be a formula for success, I do not see this as the only formula. If you are like me and stress maximizing draft pick value over a rigid strategy, it’s clear to see that the more people in your league that employ a offense only strategy, the worse that strategy performs. More importantly, it means that there is potential value to be found in drafting starting pitching early.

So on with the debunking…

Pundit View: Starting pitching is too unpredictable to warrant 1st round selection.

Rudy Gamble View: Top tier pitchers provide similar risk/reward ratios to top tier hitters.

There is statistical evidence that projections for pitchers are less predictive than for hitters. But should that fact alone cast a shadow on the top pitchers?

I dug into my 2007 draft sheet to do an unscientific test. Here were my top 10 starters going into last year’s draft along with their eventual finish among all players based on my 2007 Player Rater. Just to add impartiality, I’ll also add their ESPN Player Rater rank:

Name (2007 Razzball Rank, 2007 ESPN Rank)
Johan Santana (4, 4)
Jake Peavy (1, 2)
Roy Oswalt (59, 46)
Chris Carpenter (n/a)
Roy Halladay (60, 38)
Brandon Webb (7, 6)
Carlos Zambrano (69, 33)
Jeremy Bonderman (326, 180)
John Lackey (10, 9)
Ben Sheets (157, 114)

So out of my preseason top 10, 4 delivered 1st round value, 3 provided good value, one average player (Sheets), and two flops in Bonderman and Carpenter.

Let’s look at the top 10 hitters on my 2007 draftboard:

Alfonso Soriano (54, 71)
Alex Rodriguez (2, 1)
Jose Reyes (23, 30)
Ryan Howard (32, 40)
Carl Crawford (29, 54)
Chase Utley (50, 59)
Vladimir Guerrero (33, 57)
Miguel Cabrera (38, 44)
David Wright (12, 15)

Well, there’s definitely more consistency. No flops or average performances like Carpenter, Bonderman, and Sheets. But only one delivered 1st round value (A-Rod).

It does say something, though, about the predictability of top performing pitchers when 4 of the top 6 pitchers by year-end were in my preseason top 10 (other two being Sabathia and Beckett) where only one of the top 5 hitters was in my top 10 (after A-Rod, the next 4 rated hitters at year-end were Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Magglio Ordonez, and Jimmy Rollins).

It’s also worth noting that the top tier of pitchers – which in my mind was Santana and Peavy – both ended up in the top 4 in total value. Yours truly took Santana with the 2nd pick of the draft to the amusement of friends and was one of only two people in the draft to get 1st round return in the 1st round (the other pick was A-Rod).

Of course, the guy who got Peavy in round #3 won the league. That happens to be blogmate Grey. Even after seeing first-hand how Peavy probably earned him 3 spots in the standings, the ingrate still doesn’t have the balls to draft Peavy in the first 2 rounds.

Pundit View: There is more depth in starting pitching than hitting. You can find pitchers in later rounds while you bolster your offense early.

Rudy Gamble View: There is depth in all positions but you can’t rely on lucking out with draft day bargains. Draft the most valuable player available in the top rounds and then look to diversify those bargains across several positions. At current ADPs (Averaged Draft Positions), you can get 2 top 10 starters in the first 5 rounds and get great value.

There were definitely high performing pitchers in 2007 that were available after the 8th round. These include Josh Beckett, Eric Bedard, Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, and Kelvim Escobar.

If you were prescient or fortunate enough to have two or more of these guys on your team, you’d have done quite well. But there were a lot of poor-performing pitchers that were drafted at this level like Barry Zito, Dontrelle Willis, Bronson Arroyo, Rich Harden, etc. So odds are, you had at most one.

Since you cannot count on mid/late picks producing value like Josh Beckett in 2007, drafting a top starter like Santana or Peavy, another top 15 starter (if there’s value) and then promising pitchers staggered throughout the remaining rounds minimizes your team’s risk should you not luck out with a Beckett-type.

As for starting pitching being deeper than hitting, this is greatly exaggerated. Here is a lineup of hitters from 2007 who were likely drafted outside the first 8 rounds in many leagues:

C – Russell Martin
1B – Prince Fielder
2B – Brian Roberts
SS – J.J Hardy
3B – Mike Lowell
OF – Magglio Ordonez
OF – Eric Byrnes
OF – Curtis Granderson
OF – Alex Rios
OF – Nick Markakis
CI – Adrian Gonzalez
MI – Khalil Greene
UTIL – Brad Hawpe
Bench – Aaron Rowand
Bench – Adrian Beltre
Bench – Dan Uggla

There is power on this mock roster. There is speed (more if you want to add Corey Patterson). There is batting average. Hell, this offense would’ve won most leagues. (And, note, I didn’t include all the non-drafted contributors like Carlos Pena and Ryan Braun…).

So draft the best players available in the early rounds and then do your best to find value in later rounds.

Pundit View: Top hitters are more valuable because they can impact 5 categories instead of 4 categories.

Rudy Gamble View: Most hitters are at best great at 4, usually no more than 3 categories. Great starters are usually great across 4 categories.

I covered this in an earlier article but here are some quick examples using 2008 Point Shares.

There are only 14 hitters who we project to be above average in all 5 categories for 5×5 12 team leagues (factoring in position). Of those, only three provide more than 0.8 point shares in each category (meaning they’d move a 5.5 point level in the category to at least 6.3). Those players are A-Rod, David Wright, and Ryan Braun. Just because hitters aggregate stats in 5 categories doesn’t mean they deliver above average value in each.

A comical example of this misconception is on the 2008 Rotowire cover where Grady Sizemore is shown with the subheadline “Five Category Production”.

Really? Because while he might hit 1.000 and never strike out at Cleveland bars, last year’s .277 BA and 150+ Ks don’t suggest his average will be doing favors for any fantasy team this year. We have him down as a slight negative on average for an OF and barely a plus with his RBIs. Should he move to the 3rd slot, his RBIs should shoot up but his Runs and SBs might decline. Net-net, Sizemore is really a 3-category guy (R, HR, SB) who doesn’t kill you on the other two (RBI, AVG).

Johan Santana and Jake Peavy, on the other hand, ROCK four categories. Their ERA/WHIP/K contributions are equal to better than A-Rod’s R/HR/RBI contribution. And their Wins offer strong value as well. Brandon Webb isn’t quite at their level but is above 0.8 point shares in the 4 categories.

(Note: Some might consider Bedard to be better than Webb – I’ll take Webb’s consistency over Bedard’s upside.)

Pundit View: Santana ADP (12.1), Peavy (19.8), Webb (37.8)

Rudy Gamble View: Santana’s Predicted Value (1), Peavy (4), Webb (11)

The average draft positions of Santana, Peavy, and Webb are from MockDraftCentral.com (as sourced by the Y! writer). The predicted values are from my 2008 Point Shares that are based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.

Based on my calculations, Santana is worth 7.8 points to the average team in a 5×5 10 team league, 10.5 points to the average team in a 5×5 12 team league. The projections used were 16 / 3.00 / 1.06 / 235 and one could argue there is upside in all these categories given the trade to the Mets. Peavy is at 6.5 point shares. Webb is at 4.2 point shares.

As for the consensus top 10 draft picks, the Point Share rankings have A-Rod and Holliday at #2 and #3. Wright and Hanley at #6 and #7, Utley #9, Reyes #16 (which shouldn’t be that surprising since he finished outside the top 20 on Player Raters last year even after stealing 70+ SBs)

So here is my advice….

Aim to get one of the Santana/Peavy/Webb trio in your drafts. Santana and Peavy are the most reliable, high-performing pitching duo since Pedro and Randy Johnson in 1999-2002.

I’ve already taken Santana #1 in my Fantasy Baseball Writers Draft (5th pick). My only doubt – would Peavy be available in #2 if I decided to take a bat? I feared he wouldn’t – but he was. Given current ADPs, I’d advise taking Santana in round #1 if available and Peavy or Webb in Round #2. Of these choices, I think Peavy at #2 is the best value.

As for other starters, while I think the value is there to support taking others in the 3rd round (Beckett, CC, Bedard, Hamels, Kazmir), the current ADPs for pitchers let you wait until the 4th or 5th rounds. But if somehow a couple people in your league all read this column, you may need to adjust upward…