20.  Nick Blackburn -  Honestly, I could’ve made this the top 14 pitchers of 2008 and you wouldn’t have lost much.  Final Numbers: 11-11/4.05/1.36/96 in 193.1 IP

19.  Scott Lewis – Only pitched 24 IP so he could make the list again in 2009. Those twenty-four innings came in 4 starts where he went… Final Numbers:  4-0/2.63/1.08/15 in 24 IP

18.  Masahide Kobayashi – I almost placed Aaron Laffey in this spot, but he was demoted after a solid April. If he had an awful April and a solid September, he might’ve made this list. Things that make you go hmm… Final Numbers:  4-5/4.53/1.42/35 in 55.2 IP

17.  Greg Smith – Out of 89 pitchers who pitched 160 innings, Greg Smith had the 89th worst run support at 2.88 runs per start.  On a contender, he could’ve been a contenda. Final Numbers:  7-16/4.16/1.35/111 in 190.1 IP

15.  Glen Perkins – 74 Ks in 151 innings? That’s a bad case of the blahs. Final Numbers:  12-4/4.41/1.47/74 in 151 IP

16.  Justin Masterson – Has the stuff/delivery for a middle man. Had the numbers of a successful middle man who had a few starts.  Final Numbers:  6-5/3.16/1.22/68 in 88.1 IP

14.  Johnny Cueto - Ah… The promise of rookie nookie and the unreliability of a roofie.  2008 might make Cueto one of the biggest fantasy bargains in 2009, but there will be plenty of time to talk about 2009.  Final Numbers:  9-14/4.81/1.41/158 in 174 IP

13.  Max Scherzer – Jobacum snowballed from a hot pickup to a minor leaguer to hot pickup.  BTW, I’m so spent on Jobacum puns I’m using snowballed.  We’ll need to have a “Please post your own Jobacum pun in the comments” post one of these days. Final Numbers:  0-4/3.05/1.23/66 in 56 IP

12.  Chris Volstad – His name sounds like he should be in a Bret Easton Ellis novel, his groundball rate was muy picante, but his K rate was muy mal. Final Numbers:  6-4/2.88/1.33/52 in 84.1 IP

11.  Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw reinforces the myth that someone with a K last name is more likely to strikeout hitters. This shizz is scientific. Final Numbers:  5-5/4.26/1.50/100 in 107.2 IP

10.  Joba Chamberlain – Somebody celebrated their top ten finish in Razzball’s top 20 rookie pitchers and went and got themselves locked up. Final Numbers:  4-3/2.60/1.26/118 in 100.1 IP

9. Jorge Campillo – For a time, Campillo filled in for Rich Hill on a bunch of my teams in 2008. But enough about me! Wait, it’s all about me, isn’t it? Final Numbers:  8-7/3.91/1.24/107 in 158.2 IP

8.  John Lannan – Not a great K rate and he’s on the Nats. What is the reason you didn’t have him on your fantasy team? Final Numbers: 9-15/3.91/1.34/117 in 182 IP

7.  Chris Perez – Save vulture says, Chris Perez is the closer. Swoop! Save vulture says, Izzy got the closing job back. Reverse swoop! Motte is the closer! I didn’t say, “Save vulture says.” Final Numbers:  3-3/3.46/1.34/42, 7 saves in 41.2 IP

6.  Joey Devine – If he gets the opportunity to be the A’s closer in 2009, I’ll be all over “Waking” Joey Devine like white on something very white, but not rice, cause that’s cliché. Final Numbers:  6-1/.59/.83/49, 1 save in 45.2 IP

5.  Hiroki Kuroda – I actually drafted this schmohawk in a ten team mixed league. Then I dropped him before the season started. Sometimes you’re the teacher, sometimes you’re the student and sometimes you’re the schmohawk. Final Numbers:  9-10/3.73/1.22/116 in 183.1 IP

4.  Jose Arrendondo – If dooode would’ve had ten more vulture wins, he would’ve had one of the best seasons ever, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Final Numbers:  10-2/1.62/1.05/55 in 61 IP

3.  Jair Jurrjens – Somehow I ended up with JJj on just about every team. Guess that’s what happens when you drafted Rich Hill and Harang in 2008. Yes, it still stings. Final Numbers:  13-10/3.68/1.37/139 in 188.1 IP

2.  Armando Galarraga -  Here’s a pitcher that I refused to believe in the entire season. His rates just were all a bit cock-eyed. So maybe I was wrong about not picking him up in 2008, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be excited about him in 2009. Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126 in 178.2 IP

1.  Brad Ziegler – That he’s number one is more of an indictment on the rookie pitchers for 2008. (Edinson Volquez was not a rookie.) This is not to say Ziegler wasn’t flat-out bombilcious. Oh, he was. Whatever bombilious means. Final Numbers:  3-0/1.06/1.16/30, 11 saves in 59.2 IP

20. J.R. Towles – I told everyone in the preseason to avoid this schmohawk like the plague. Honestly, I didn’t even think he’d be this bad. Final Numbers:  10/4/16/.137

19.  Carlos Gonzalez – Bleech.  Final Numbers:   31/4/26/.242/4

18.  Daric Burton – See Carlos Gonzalez or 1/18 of an inch above.  Final Numbers:  59/9/47/.226/2

17.  Brandon Wood – I keep liking this guy, eventually he’s going to have to play, right? I mean, how many subpar brothers (Erick and Maicer) of already subpar players (Willy and Cesar) can one team play? Final Numbers:  12/5/13/.200/4

16.  Taylor Teagarden – There was about a two week period there were Teagarden hit a home run in every game he played. Unfortunately, the Rangers feel the need to have four Major League-ready catchers. Grey to the Rangers, “Choose one catcher and trade away the rest. You’re welcome.” Final Numbers:  10/6/17/.319

15.  Pablo Sandoval – This is a bit Jayson Stark of me to point out, but in over four hundred less at-bats than Bengie Molina, Sandoval had only 22 less runs scored. And Molina had a good year by his standards! <– Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was necessary. Final Numbers:  24/3/24/.345

14.  Chris Dickerson – Dickerson’s on my short list of guys I’m watching in 2009 Spring Training. To clarify, that is not a height-challenged list. Final Numbers:  20/6/15/.304/5

13.  Chase Headley – Rudy and I were talking (we talk, ya’ll!) and I think we might make Razzball an anti-Padres hitter site. This is still in the discussion stage. Final Numbers:  34/9/38/.269/4

12. Ian Stewart – With 2nd base eligibility, you coud’ve done worse. Like any schmohawk that was playing 2nd for the Padres. Final Numbers:  33/10/41/.259/1

11.  David Murphy – Does he yawnstipate me because his name is so boring or because of his numbers?  Prolly a bit of both. (BTW, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve fully adopted turning probably into prolly. I haven’t embraced anything this freely since Z. Cavariccis in the late ’80s.) Final Numbers:  64/15/74/.275/7

10.  Kosuke Fukudome – Didn’t like the latest import from the Far East in the preseason and that panned out. Final Numbers:  79/10/58/.257/12

9.  Denard Span – He replaced Carlos Gomez at the top of the order and showed a disciplined eye. Who is Denard Span, Alex? Final Numbers:  70/6/47/.294/18

8. Jay Bruce – When Jay Bruce was called up there was a large group of people on Razzball that thought they saw the messiah. Unfortunately, when Bruce went to walk on water, the Ks sunk him. He’s still only 21 and there’s no reason think he won’t be great. Final Numbers:  63/21/52/.254/4

7.  Mike Aviles – This year, the peasant Royals had a few gems. Aviles was one. Final Numbers:   68/10/51/.325/8

6.  Chris Davis – His average this year will be exploited in a full year’s worth of play, but he was fine in 2008. Final Numbers:  51/17/55/.285/1

5.  Joey Votto – Was the Barbara Hersey to Jay Bruce’s Bette Midler. Please, like you’ve never seen Beaches. Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

4.  Alexei Ramirez – Premenopausal Alfonso Soriano showed flashes of power rather than hot flashes. Final Numbers:  65/21/77/13/.290

3.  Jacoby Ellsbury – I almost placed Ellsbury number four and Alexei Ramirez here at number three, but 50 steals make a big difference and 9 home runs aren’t exactly Juan Pierrey. And, yes, Juan Pierrey is an adjective. Look it up! Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

2.  Geovany Soto – Usually everything the Cubs fans root for turns to crizz-ap, but not this time. Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

1.  Evan Longoria – The Rays didn’t Scrooge us out of Longoria as I feared in March and Longoria didn’t Alex Gordon us out of a good rookie year. Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

20. Joe Saunders – If owning Saunders caused you to have an erection that lasted longer than forty-five seconds, you should see a doctor. ADP, 330 — MOE, 0:45

19. John Danks – Danks turned out to be a solid contributor for the back end of a fantasy staff. *laughing a la Beavis and Butthead* I said, “staff.” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 2:57

18. Grant Balfour – I don’t want to focus too long on the math of this because that’s Rudy’s job, but, according to Point Shares, Grant Balfour gave you .47 points in the standings. To compare, Carlos Marmol, Kazmir and Jenks are a few guys who had good seasons, but gave you less value. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 4:01

17. Jon Lester – Lester’s season was so good it forced Lance Armstrong back out of retirement. Nobody steals Lance’s cancer-surviving thunder! ADP, 274 — MOE, 6:30

16. Derek Lowe – Turned in a solid year in a contract* year. *For Dodgers, contract refers to what STD you catch from Alyssa Milano. ADP, 182 — MOE, 7:42

15. Brad Lidge – I hope he breaks Gagne’s record of consecutive saves. That’s not a joke or sarcasm. I really do. These are the things I care about. ADP, 167 — MOE, 10:27

14. Justin Duchscherer – Too bad he’s sporting a porcelain hip. ADP, 331 — MOE, 14:59

13. Kerry Wood – At the draft, you said to your friend, who’s a Cubbies fan, “You may as well put Wood directly on your DL now.” Who’s laughing now, dooode? ADP, 312– MOE, 22:00

12. Edinson Volquez – Mock Draft Central says Volquez went undrafted in 2008, but like Cueto the other day on our bust list, Edinson was drafted in all of my leagues. I told you to draft him about a dozen times in the preseason. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 27:03

11. Mike Mussina – I didn’t pickup Mussina in any league. That’s not to say I was right, but when a 39-year-old dude declines for five years then picks it up suddenly, I don’t buy into it. ADP, 332 — MOE, 9:20

10. Joakim Soria – Is it JO-akim? JOKE-im? Why doesn’t ESPN have his last name’s pronunciation on his player card? It’s like 1776 up in this piece with no love for the Royals. ADP, 158 — MOE, 29:47

9. Ricky Nolasco – My twelve-year-old cousin texted me this, “GNBLFY, but thought U were crackaz when U told me 2 pick up Nolasco. Thx. BTW, U C RR/RW? Bananas is in trouble! L8r.” NP. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 33:51

8. CC Sabathia – In April, it seemed like Sabathia was going to weigh down your team, then he ended up anchoring it. (<– Play on words, boyz!) ADP, 53 — MOE, 37:50

7. Mariano Rivera – I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think I ever got my answer. Why does every other closer generally go by his last name and Rivera goes by Mariano? Out of respect? Maybe, but people didn’t call Eck, “Dennis.” Someone post the answer in the comments. Thanks! ADP, 101 — MOE, 44:27

6. Ervin Santana – Of course there’s a Santana on this list. Ervin? Zoinks! ADP, 330 — MOE, 44:30

5. Ryan Dempster – Coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons as a closer, he’s lights out as a starter. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 331 — MOE, 44:41

4. Rich Harden – Harden gave the value of someone drafted 2nd round. Now, if you did draft him in 2nd round, the reactions at the draft would’ve been split between committing you to a psych ward and banning you from the league, but imagine the end of the year reactions. Your leaguemates would be searching your room for Biff Tanner’s sports book. (BTW, am I the only one who thinks about time travel at least once a day? I am? Okay, moving on…) ADP, 210 — MOE, 53:15

3. Roy Halladay – According to Point Shares, Halladay gave you more than a 10 point swing in the standings. So if you won with 70 points carrying Halladay, you would’ve only had 60 with the average pitcher off waivers. ADP, 98 — MOE, 59:01

2. Tim Lincecum – 265 Ks in 227 innings. Mmm…. That’s like looking at a young Suzanne Somers. (BTW, and sorry to freak you out like this, but Suzanne Somers is 62 years old. That’s a GILF.) ADP, 119 — MOE, 59:50

1. Cliff Lee – Your leaguemate, “Of course you won. You had Cliff-freakin-Lee!” Yup, that’s what Cliff Lee did to people this year. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:59

20. Stephen Drew – I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay – I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado – Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez – Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora – Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley – Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez – Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier – Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit – You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta – See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu – I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady – Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa – You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis – I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin – Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff – Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth – You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton – To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia – Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick – Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19

20. Daniel Cabrera – No, this is the year for the breakout! No, wait… I mean, next year!… Or 2010! Yes, definitely by 2010. ADP, 329 — FPCP, 1.3

19. Matt Cain – His numbers are actually close to what I was worried Lincecum would do. Good Ks, decent ERA but an 8-14 record. ADP, 131 — FPCP, 2.1

18. Jeremy Bonderman – Frankly, I don’t know anyone that drafted him, so maybe he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. Then again, he has an average draft position of 169 so someone drafted him. Hmm… Maybe fantasy baseball is really popular in Michigan and these numbers are skewed by Tigers fans. I’ll need a statistician with lots of free time to figure this out. Email me at totallyeffinbored [at] razzball.com. ADP, 169 — FPCP, 2.5

17. Josh Beckett – Not really an awful year, but you wanted more than a 12-10 record. This is the problem with Wins. “When I say no rhyme, you say no reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 44 — FPCP, 3.7

16. Carlos Zambrano – 130 Ks in almost 190 innings is a major problem. Another problem, never knowing if you were going to get “Thanks for the no-hitter, Big Z!” or “Z just soiled my team’s linens.” ADP, 66 — FPCP, 4.9

15. Johnny Cueto – Hey, it’s the wunderkind! Hey, wunderkind, how are ya doing? Say hello to ya mother for me. Undrafted according to Mock Draft Central, but you know you drafted him. FPCP, 5.5

14. John Maine – I had high (big) apple pie in the sky hopes for this schmohawk. He gave you some stretches where he was decent. Other times, he gave you stretch marks on your ulcer. ADP, 133 — FPCP, 6.2

13. Jeff Francis – Luckily for fantasy baseballers (<–that sounds like something my Mom would say), Jeff Francis pitches at Coors so it makes dropping him feel much easier. ADP, 152 — FPCP, 6.9

12. J.J. Putz/Chad Cordero – This was supposed to be for just starters, but, well, these closers busted. Why did I put them at 12? Cause it’s my list. ADP, High — FPCP, 7.4

11. Francisco Liriano – What, you drafted him in March for six solid starts in August? Yeah, a’ight. ADP, 112 — FPCP, 9.1

10. Pedro Martinez – Watching Pedro this year, Nelson de la Rosa rolled over in his shoe box. ADP, 160 — FPCP, 9.5

9. Yovani Gallardo – At least he had the decency to go down early in the year. It still hurt watching him grab his knee like he was just put in the Figure Four Leg Lock. ADP, 135 — FPCP, 10.1

8. Ian Snell – He was supposed to be a hidden gem at the end of the draft. Instead, he was the backwash at the end of a draft beer. ADP, 154 — FPCP, 10.3

7. Chien-Ming Wang – If you drafted Wang, his injury was a blow. And that’s the only time it’s upsetting to see “blow” and “Wang” in the same sentence. ADP, 146 — FPCP, 11.2

6. Rich Hill – Right now Rich Hill is reenacting spring training using vegetables, and whenever Sweet Lou Potato tells him he’s going to the minors, he mashes him. Or not! ADP, 113 — FPCP, 12.1

5. John Smoltz – Sadly, this might be the last we see of him. Hey, I just got schmaltzy for Smoltzy. (<–alliteration in lieu of wit) ADP, 82 — FPCP, 13.9

4. Fausto Carmona – When Sabathia stood up from the Indians seesaw, Carmona fell and never recovered. ADP, 106 — FPCP, 15.6

3. Erik Bedard – It could’ve been worse. He could’ve been healthy and terrible. BTW, I picked Bedard to win the AL Cy Young. See Verlander, Justin. ADP, 39 — FPCP, 17.1

2. Aaron Harang – Instead of 184.1 innings of a 4.78 ERA with a 6-17 record, Harang should’ve put a sweaty glass down on my Reggie Jackson rookie card while recording a sex tape with my girlfriend. ADP, 72 — FPCP, 19.5

1. Justin Verlander – 200 innings of suck?! For crimey’s sake, man. Help a brother out — get injured! Take a knee! Something! BTW II, Rudy picked Verlander to win the AL Cy Young. Ladies and gentlemen, your Razzball ‘perts! ADP, 62 — FPCP, 19.7

20. Rafael Furcal – His one saving grace was his relative quick exit. One real solid month and goodbye. Other than clogging up your DL spot for a bit, his bust is Linda Hamilton-like. ADP, 78 — FPCP, .4

19. Jorge Posada – He’s a catcher that people were warning you against drafting, so you should’ve known better. ADP, 91 — FPCP, 1.8

18. Andruw Jones – Again, doesn’t hurt as much as some because you should’ve known not to draft him. ADP, 100 — FPCP, 2.9

17. Khalil Greene – Khalil Greene is the lowest drafted guy on this list, but his ugliness made it necessary. ADP, 191 — FPCP, 3.3

16. Eric Byrnes – Every ‘pert, including me, warned you in the preseason of an impending bust for Byrnes, so his bust feels a bit easier to swallow — like it’s lactating. Though he was still a hustling piece of crap while he was playing. ADP, 52 — FPCP, 4.1

15. Gary Sheffield – Bad temper + no roids = Old cranky dude who can’t stay healthy or hit with power. ADP, 86 — FPCP, 4.2

14. Jimmy Rollins – I tried to warn people against hoping for a repeat MVP campaign, but even I didn’t envision him hitting only 11 home runs. Micah Owings could’ve hit 11 home runs in Citizen’s Bank. ADP, 6 — FPCP, 5.7

13. Prince Fielder – He ended earning the most Point Shares on this list. He still fell way short of predicted value. He would’ve been worth drafting 40th not 11th. ADP, 11 — FPCP, 6.2

12. Hideki Matsui – Hideki loves porn and this year he left his owners feeling like jerk offs. ADP, 88 — FPCP, 7.0

11. Paul Konerko – Drafted on average 84th as he sprinkled one week of value between six months of weak. ADP, 84 — FPCP, 8.7

10. Carlos Guillen – I ain’t down with Guillen because of what he offers even in a good year. This year’s blowout was not a good year. ADP, 49 — FPCP, 10.2

9. Jeff Francoeur – I drafted Frenchy right in front of Josh Hamilton in one league. Now Frenchy will be the one player I will never draft again. Every year one player gets this distinction and this year Francoeur earns the badge of dishonor. ADP, 101 — FPCP, 11.4

8. Robinson Cano – This one hurts more than some because I really believed that Cano would turn it around in the 2nd half. *sniffles* It still hurts. ADP, 64 — FPCP, 13.1

7. Ryan Zimmerman – And the pain from Cano has worn off already. It actually feels good to see this schmohawk here. Schadenfreude! ADP, 89 — FPCP, 15.9

6. Chone Figgins – 34 steals is what you wanted. 72/1/22/.276 is not. ADP, 53 — FPCP, 16.0

5. Victor Martinez – With an average draft position of 29, anyone that drafted Victor Martinez probably felt like they were the catcher for the Riker’s Island softball team.  ADP, 29 — FPCP, 17.3

4. Travis Hafner – The pride of North Dakota remains Roger Maris and Angie Dickinson. You wanted a bit more from Pronk than 5 home runs and a .197 average. The best thing Hafner did all year was go on the DL the better part of the season.  If only Hafner would’ve dropped his big melon head on V-Mart in spring training, you could’ve avoided drafting either of them. ADP, 44 — FPCP, 17.7

3. David Ortiz – In 2008, Big Papi was like a big teddy bear of suck. He was drafted on average 17th and he gave you the value of a player drafted 227th. To quote the late great Curly Howard, “Yuck, yuck, yuck.” ADP, 17 — FPCP, 18.9

2. Troy Tulowitzki – I had a Polish friend growing up whose father would shovel snow in socks and flip-flops. Was it because he was impervious to cold or he didn’t own boots? I have no idea. It might have been the booze. Either way, I like to think it was because the Poles are hard-working and he was proving a point to his lazy American neighbors. With this season, Tulo disgraced himself and all of the Poles. ADP, 45 — FPCP 19.3

1. Carl Crawford – In May in one league, I traded Crawford for Braun. Phew. Crawford needs a good punch in the mouth for all of the fantasy teams he ruined this year. Somebody give Brett Myers a call. ADP, 15 — FPCP, 19.7

1. Mariano Rivera – I said 40 saves and he got 39. Now bow! Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/2.75/1.10/70, 40 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-5/1.40/.67/77, 39 Saves

2. Francisco Rodriguez – I said he’d get 45 saves and he got 62. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  6-2/3.00/1.25/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.24/1.29/77, 62 Save

3. Joakim Soria – Just because I didn’t rank him doesn’t mean he wasn’t on any of my teams or that I didn’t like him. I just saw no reason to rank him in the top twenty back in January of 2008. In March, when I did one of my closer posts, I did move him into the top 20. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-3/1.60/.86/66, 42 Saves

4. Jonathan Papelbon – If I were the type to grab a top closer, and I’m not, I would take Papelbon. Not for his dancing. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  5-0/1.10/.75/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/2.34/.95/77, 41 Saves

5. Joe Nathan – Lots consider this dooode the number one closer. I could see that. I’ve only had him on one team ever, when he was a middle reliever on the Giants. I’ll probably have him on another team in a couple of years when the shine is off of him. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  6-1/1.90/1.00/80, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  1-2/1.33/.90/74, 39 Saves

6. Jose Valverde – I didn’t trust him much coming into the year, but many didn’t so I still ended up with him and he proved to be fine. I won’t trust him much going into 2009 either, but at certain prices he’s a buy. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/4.00/1.25/65, 30 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.38/1.18/83, 44 Saves

7. Brad Lidge – I liked him coming into the year as a solid bounce back candidate. (Notice how I said bounce back and not Comeback. WTF? How does he win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Kerry Wood? Yeah, I can see that. Cantu? That makes sense. Lidge? In 2007, he had a 3.36 ERA. Do the reporters who vote for this shizz even bother to look at stats? Let me guess, Lidge blew a save in the postseason in 2005 so he’s the Comeback Player this year. Moving on before I stick my head in the oven.) Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  3-3/3.25/1.20/90, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-0/1.95/1.23/92, 41 Saves

8. Kerry Wood – I couldn’t have been any more down on Wood coming into the season, but I still had him on three different teams. Am I not practicing what I’m preaching? Nah, fool. A) Wood’s stock was way down according to everyone so I got him at a discounted rate. B) There is no B, don’t you hate that? (Note: Back in January of 2008, I ranked the “Cubs Closer” 20th and my preseason predictions were Nice stats/Boatload of saves.) Final Numbers:  5-4/3.26/1.09/84, 34 Saves

9. Brian Fuentes – With closers you have to know your strengths, my strength is I grab fill-in closers before most people. This helps when you don’t draft any “good” ones. With that said, I had Fuentes on almost all of my teams. (Note: I predicted this for Corpas, 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.) Corpas Ranked #18, Final Numbers:  1-5/2.73/1.10/82, 30 Saves

10. Francisco Cordero – His WHIP says he got a bit lucky. 78 Ks says he was doing something right. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  2-5/3.50/1.20/65, 35 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/3.33/1.41/78, 34 Saves

11. Kevin Gregg – Here’s one closer I actually steered clear of because of his walks in 2007. He ended up being fine this year, but he wouldn’t be this high if it wasn’t for some vulture wins. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-8/3.41/1.28/58, 29 Saves

12. Bobby Jenks – Not a big fan of Jenks so I didn’t have him on any teams. As they taught me to say in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, his lack of strikeouts are a concern. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/3.00/1.00/65, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  3-1/3.63/1.10/38, 30 Saves

13. Carlos Marmol – This hombre’s gonna be great. ¿Ya que si es verdad? I ain’t no Mentirosa. Final Numbers:  2-4/2.68/0.93/114, 7 Saves

14. Billy Wagner – I warned you four months before the season that Wagner’s end was near. And that’s me paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  2-3/3.75/1.35/70, 25 Saves, Final Numbers:  0-1/2.30/0.89/52, 27 Saves

15. B.J. Ryan – He went unranked in January because he hadn’t even thrown from 40 feet yet. Get over yourself. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-4/2.95/1.28/58, 32 Saves

16. Salomon Torres – I will simply point out that I didn’t rank Gagne either. Put that in your sucky pipe and smoke it. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/3.49/1.35/51, 28 saves

17. Brian Wilson – Wilson ended up notching way more saves than I thought he would and he was also way more erratic in his ratios. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/2.50/1.05/65, 20 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/4.62/1.44/67, 41 saves

18. Trevor Hoffman – My grandpappy told me about this time that Trevor Hoffman struckout “Castor Oil” Boyd to win the Governor’s Trophy and single-handedly stop The Crimean War. Our grandparents sure knew who to close games. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  3-2/3.50/1.15/40, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.77/1.04/46, 30 saves

19. Grant Balfour – Good for Balfour for ranking this high and but let’s not forget all of the other middle relievers who forfeited their spot so Balfour could have some glamour — Shields, Wheeler, Dotel, Okajima, Qualls and “Waking” Joey Devine. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-2/1.54/.89/82, 4 Saves

20. J.P. Howell – If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son make the top 20 closer list. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.22/1.13/92, 3 Saves

21. Jon Lester – Rather than speak on Lester, I’m going to discuss the obvious problem with pitching. It’s unpredictable. 15 out of these 20 top starters weren’t even ranked in the preseason. This is not to say they weren’t drafted; they were. Just lower than they ended up ranking. Yes, this was me ranking the starters, so perhaps I was the only one not ranking them correctly. No, this isn’t true. Missing on 75% of these starters was Shandler, ESPN, Rudy “Player Rater” Gamble, Sportsline, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, et al. Now Razzball has the smartest readers — no doubt — but chances are you missed a few too. Imagine if you drafted Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, John Maine and Aaron Harang on a lot of teams like I did. Trouble, right? Well, I still finished with respectable pitching numbers. How? Cause I picked up Guthrie, Buehrle, Randy Johnson, Greinke, Volquez and Slowey on a lot of teams. Teams that I needed more help on I had Campillo, Jurrjens, Cook and Ubaldo at varying times. Not to mention, some middle relievers. The point is, as the point always is, pitching is unpredictable. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.21/1.27/152

22. Jake Peavy – In all fairness, out of 89 starters who threw 160 innings, Peavy had the 85th worst Run Support. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  20-5/2.75/1.05/230, Final Numbers:  10-11/2.85/1.18/166

23. Justin Duchscherer – Duchscherer was lucky to place this high. That’s not to say, he sat around with his fingers crossed hoping I would rank him high. No, it’s to say Duchscherer gave up a crapload of hits and didn’t strikeout enough in 141+ innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-8/2.54/1.00/95

24. A.J. Burnett – So that’s what he looks like healthy — an AL righthanded Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #24, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.85/1.20/170, Final Numbers:  18-10/4.07/1.34/231

25. Ted Lilly – It’s no surprise that I came pretty close with my preaseason predictions for Lilly. He’s predictable. The anti-Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  16-8/4.20/1.20/160, Final Numbers:  17-9/4.09/1.23/184

26. Zack Greinke – Back in May, Rudy got Greinke’d when I traded Melky for this nervous breakdown-prone starter. Then Greinke Greinke’d me, he posted a 5.22 July, so I dropped him and he ended up posting ERAs of 2.48 and a 2.18 in August and September respectively. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.47/1.28/183

27. Joe Saunders – 103 Ks in 198 innings? Yuck. For fear of Saunders ruling over any team I own with a coup d’blah, he becomes the first starter that has appeared in the 40 forty starters list that I can say right now will not be in my top 40 for 2009. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.41/1.21/103

28. John Danks – Guess what Danks will be next year? A third year starter! Oh, I do love those. But we are still looking back right now. Danks took the next step in 2008. Walks were down, K/9 rose, HRs fell… If you throw out a Snelly July ERA of 4.97, his season would look even better. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.32/1.23/159

29. Gavin Floyd – Here’s someone that I’m not as excited about. If you look past his win total, you’ll see home run balls and not the best strikeout numbers. He showed luck in 2008; don’t bet on luck. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/3.84/1.26/145

30. Scott Baker – His K/BB and K/9 ratios were solid as he took the right step forward on a team that knows how to handle its pitchers. Now if the Twins would chuck some duckets at a free agent bat, they might be real contenders and not poseurs. (That’s right; I used poseurs in a sentence. Deal with it!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/3.45/1.18/141

31. Josh Beckett – The moral of the story is never count on Wins and don’t trust a blonde in an abandoned bear house with free porridge. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  19-9/3.90/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  12-10/4.03/1.19/172

32. Armando Galarraga – Maybe it’s because his name sounds like he should be contending for the Intercontinental Championship rather than the ERA title, but I never got behind Armando Galarraga this year. (Might also have been his crazy lucky BABIP.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126

33. Scott Kazmir – Kazmir stays relatively healthy, the Rays win the AL East and he only gets 12 Wins. Not to mention, Kazmir usually peacocks his walks with Ks, but they were down this year. Ah… The mystery of Kazmir continues.  Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.75/1.30/210, Final Numbers:  12-8/3.49/1.27/166

34. Gil Meche – In 2008, I never threw the Meche net in my starters stream. I had enough with Greinke, who is slightly better if only a bit more risky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.98/1.32/183

35. Randy Johnson – You know how you have two crazy uncles. (You do; trust me.) One crazy uncle likes to shoot Budweiser cans out of your cousin’s hand and your other uncle married a Tahitian and runs a “hemp” shop. Randy’s the one shooting holes in Buds and Moyer’s toking the hemp pullover. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-10/3.91/1.24/173

36. Todd Wellemeyer – A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.71/1.25/134

37. Mark Buehrle – Buehrle sported a near-6.00 ERA during the day. He obviously needs some pointers from JDog on his day game. Maybe Buehrle could break out the Joe D. gambit, “Did you see that fight down the street?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.79/1.34/140

38. Shaun Marcum – Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.39/1.16/123

39. Kevin Slowey – Hey, Mr. Radke, when you’re done looking at Scott Baker, check out this three pitch induced groundout. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.99/1.15/123

40. Jamie Moyer – (Continued from Randy Johnson) …Then the government comes and confiscates Moyer’s “hemp” store and you’re left looking after his six kids as he does three large in the big house. You decide you’re going to ignore three of the misfits because they’re already gone. The three you do keep an eye on make a commendable turnaround and barely even smell anymore. Then one day you put your Uncle Randy in charge of watching them only to return to ABC Breaking News that Randy and your three cousins were arrested trying to rob a Wells Fargo bank. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.71/1.33/123

1. Roy Halladay – When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia – Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ’07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum – Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee – You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana – Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels – Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb – Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ’08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana – Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren – Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster – What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden – “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco – In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina – 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe – In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt – Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets – Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez – I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields – The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 – 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley – See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka – In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154

21. B.J. Upton – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40

22. Randy Winn – I’m pretty sure Winn was on waivers in some of my leagues and I ignored him. To my detriment? Perhaps, but a 10/25 season is nice from your 2nd basemen, not your 2nd outfielder. (This is what I mean by not agreeing with ESPN rankings.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  84/10/64/.306/25

23. Vladimir Guerrero – Vlad’s numbers are a pale imitation of his former glory and getting paler. Giving the nickname, “Vlad the Impaler,” a whole new meaning. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  105/32/125/.315/3, Final Numbers:  85/27/91/.303/5

24. Alfonso Soriano – When you consider he only played in 109 games, these are great numbers and right in line with his predictions. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (right here, in fact). A player that gets injured isn’t the worst thing for your fantasy team. If you were to have Soriano for all of his healthy games then, say, Elijah Dukes for all of Soriano’s injured games, you had great numbers at that position. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  115/35/75/.280/20, Final Numbers:  76/29/75/.280/19

25. Magglio Ordonez – …Whereas someone like Mags who gives you 561 at-bats and only 21 homers isn’t ideal. Maybe Vlad or Al-So can teach Mags how to give these stats in 150 less at-bats and then get injured. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/110/.300, Final Numbers:  72/21/103/.317

26. Carlos Lee – Another guy that would rank much higher if I were ranking them. Chuck Lee fought the power a bit less this year because of a fractured pinkie, but if you grabbed someone like, say, Ethier for the final month-plus while Lee was out, you had a very productive outfielder. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/120/.295/7, Final Numbers:  61/28/100/.314/4

27. Xavier Nady – Let’s look at what I said on April 7th, “…he’s starting the season on fire. Could he keep it going? …history tells us no. This won’t continue. Know what you can’t do? Let him sit on the waiver wire. Don’t drop Carlos Lee for him, but every year some players come out of nowhere.” And that’s me quoting me! You gotta also like how I told you not to drop Carlos Lee for him, cause I knew Lee would come in just above him in the year end rankings.  Natch! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  76/25/97/.305/2

28. Raul Ibanez – The following is a story of you and Raul Ibanez — You grabbed Ibanez early on when he hit five home runs in April, then dropped him in May when he hit 2 HRs, then briefly considered grabbing him in July when he hit 6 HRs then kicked yourself for not picking him up in August when he hit 7 HRs, then finally grabbed in September when he hit .233 with 1 HR. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  85/23/110/.293/2

29. Willy Taveras – Sixty-eight steals and sixty-four runs. One more time for those who think a hyphen is a minus sign. Taveras had 68 steals and only 64 runs. In-cred-ible or incredible. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 64/1/26/.251/68

30. Torii Hunter – While talking about Abreu, I mentioned the other day how an outfielder going 20/20 is the best way to go unnoticed by fantasy teams. Well, here’s another guy that is in MLB’s Witness Protection Program with season after season of 20/20. Too bad Ambiorix Burgos is a pitcher; he could use this sort of anonymity right about now. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/100/.275/20, Final Numbers:  85/21/78/.278/19

31. Corey Hart – Corey Hart took a dump on teams in September with zero home runs and a .173 average. Either the pennant race got the best of him or all his bad ball swinging. Probably a bit of both. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.280/25, Final Numbers:  76/20/91/.268/23

32. Milton Bradley – He reached 400 at-bats for the first time since 2004 and, even more impressively, he had zero meltdowns (unless you count the time the Royal announcer had to lock himself in the booth to avoid Bradley attacking him, but since Bradley never got to him, we’ll give Bradley a pass). His healthy season showed that A) he is no longer a threat for 15 steals and B) he still misses close to 40 games even when healthy. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 78/22/77/.321/5

33. Curtis Granderson – I didn’t like him at all coming into this season. I felt like expectations were unreal. He turned out to prove me right and wrong. Right, because his final numbers were a letdown. Wrong, because he did take a step forward in walks and average against lefties. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  115/27/85/.280/25, Final Numbers:  112/22/66/.280/12

34. Andre Ethier – In the beginning of the year, The Pierre Situation™ infected the Dodgers’ outfield water supply to make it undrinkable. Luckily, Torre filtered Jones and Pierre so Ethier could run hot until his wife’s water broke in late September. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 90/20/77/.305/6

35. Mark DeRosa – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

36. Jayson Werth – Did the Dogers give up too early on Werth or did they realize they had exactly the same player in Ethier? Both probably. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 73/24/67/.273/20

37. Alexei Ramirez – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

38. Conor Jackson – Already went over Jackson in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

39. David DeJesus – I know your first inclination is to see DeJesus and think he was underrated, but “Blink,” you’re wrong. Sorry, Malcolm Gladwell. You were better off running hot waiver wire pickups out there every week than this schomhawk. A 12/11 in over 500 at-bats is not productive. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  70/12/73/.307/11

40. Hunter Pence – If he can get his steals up a bit, he might be able to snitch on the mafia and sneak his way into the MLB Witness Protection 20/20 Program. Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/75/.290/17, Final Numbers:  78/25/83/.269/11

1. Matt Holliday – 25 home runs in Coors? Zoinks! What happens if he’s traded? Does he hit 15 home runs and steal 35? Victorino called, he wants his stats back. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/125/.310/7, Final Numbers:  107/25/88/.321/28

2. Manny Ramirez – It’s just like Manny to leave a hitter’s park for a pitcher’s park and see his value skyrocket. The touring company of Rainman should consider casting Manny, he’s a natural. Imagine trying to read him for cheating at the blackjack table. It would be impossible. Actually, the one caveat is Manny couldn’t be in on it. If he knew he were cheating, he giggle uncontrollably. Preseason Rank #21, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.315, Final Numbers: 102/37/121/.332

3. Lance Berkman – Already went over Berkman in the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #12, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/115/.310/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

4. Grady Sizemore – The Zagat Guide to Cleveland said, “The twelfth chapter of “The Akron Ladies Spread for Grady’s Baby,” were “happy” with his “numbers.” Calling him a “speed/power combo to make a jackhammer envious” and they’d like to sandwich him like the Rs on the word rawr.” Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  120/35/85/.290/30, Final Numbers: 101/33/90/.268/38

5. Carlos Beltran – Beltran was underrated on the Royals, then overrated on the Mets and now he seems to have found his way back to underrated. The only thing that remains the same, he can play a gay teenager with aplomb. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/110/.270/18, Final Numbers:   116/27/112/.284/25

6. Josh Hamilton – Fantasy baseball shot itself up on Hamilton for the fist half of the year, then, as with any good buzz, there were fewer thrills later on and mostly you were left trying to reclaim some of the past highs. Preseason Rank #38, Preseason Predictions:  70/27/80/.300/5, Final Numbers:  98/32/130/.304/9

7. Ichiro Suzuki – Here’s a monkey serving beer in Japan. With more and more monkeys waiting tables to make ends meet, it makes me wonder… Will more and more monkeys also try to make it as actors? Or will actors start being monkeys? Either way, go watch that monkey again. It’s wonderful! (You gotta love how he sneaks off to eat edamame. Monkeys love edamame — case closed.) Oh, bee-tee-dubya, Ichiro got some hits and some steals. Who saw that coming? Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  110/10/65/.330/45, Final Numbers:  103/6/42/.310/43

8. Ryan Ludwick -  Ludwick is the first completely out of nowhere outfielder. Last year, he hit more home runs in the major leagues than he hit at any stop in the minors, which is saying a lot considering he’s 30 years old and, like Gary Glitter, he’s been banging around the minors since 1999. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  104/37/113/.299/4

9. Ryan Braun – Already went over Braun in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. (Note: Braun was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In all fairness, I would’ve ranked him above Ryan Ludwick.), Preseason Predictions:  100/27/105/.280/12, Final Numbers:  92/37/106/.285/14

10. Matt Kemp – Kemp’s 2008 was like Tom Cruise in Risky Business. It may have only been one movie, but you just knew more was on the way. Hopefully, in a few years, Kemp doesn’t hit a home run then begin to laugh like a madman while wearing five inch heals on his cleats. Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  95/20/75/.290/20, Final Numbers:  93/18/76/.290/35

11. Bobby Abreu – I’m convinced there’s no better way to go under radar in fantasy baseball than to have a 20/20 season as an outfielder. The Witness Protection Agency should reassign people into the major leagues and give them ten years of 20/20 seasons. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  120/15/110/.310/20, Final Numbers:  100/20/100/.296/22

12. Nate McLouth – We didn’t rank him, but Rudy did say on Opening Day, “(McLouth has) SB and Run potential. Enough pop for 15 HR. Enough speed for 30 SB. AVG won’t be great.” And that’s me quoting Rudy! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  113/26/94/.276/23

13. Johnny Damon – Is it me or are Yankees suddenly being underrated and forgotten? Some sort of anti-Big Business/anti-ESPN thing going on here. Damon’s numbers were eerily similar to Alexis Rios and think about how many teams Rios clogged up. Seriously, think about it. I don’t see you thinking. There ya go. Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  105/15/70/.280/15, Final Numbers:  95/17/71/.303/29

14. Shane Victorino – Hamilton-Burrishly, Victorino and Rios dueled during the regular season to see who would hit more home runs, so it’s fitting that they should come in 14th and 15th respectively. However, The Flying Hawaiian provided a lot more value than Rios considering their ADP. (BTW, how about “Hamilton-Burrishly?” All the kids are gonna be saying that. As soon as they figure out what it means.) Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  115/15/60/.280/40, Final Numbers:  102/14/58/.293/36

15. Alexis Rios – At 15th overall for outfielders, Rios wasn’t as bad as, say, Carl Crawford, but still the power never came. Rios’s power numbers look like Jason Kendall having a Brady Anderson-type ‘roids season. (Minus the sideburns, of course. Speaking of sideburns, am I the only one not watching the new Beverly Hills, 90210? Actually, I should rephrase that, am I the only one not watching Beverly Hills, 90210 who thought they would definitely watch? I just have no desire at all. Now this is either because I’ve outgrown that demographic, which seems unlikely, since I Tivo three hour chunks of MTV and will watch a RR/RW Challenge rerun three times without getting tired of it. Or, and this seems more likely, the show is just lame. The new Brenda reminds me of a girl I would date and breakup with, and I never breakup with anyone. I leave a relationship kicking and screaming. The black kid is no longer running drugs for Marlo — where’s Snoop? The mom is hot. Mrs. Walsh wasn’t hot. WTF? Finally, their stories of kids doing drugs are trying so hard to be salacious. The original 90210 worked because the stories were cheesy with a goofy Steve Sanders runner. Where’s my goofy Steve Sanders runner?!) Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  120/32/110/.300/25, Final Numbers:  91/15/79/.291/32

16. Jacoby Ellsbury – In the beginning of the season, if I would’ve told you a Red Sox player would have 50 steals and not get to 100 runs, would you have believed me? What is going on with offense around the Major Leagues? When I’m putting together the ’09 predictions, I’m going to have to put on the sweater that not only makes me look smart, but makes me think smart too. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

17. Jason Bay – I pushed Rios like those dudes on Las Vegas Boulevard handing out stripper flyers, while I warned you against touching Bay like the bouncers at those same strip clubs. Okay, so I made a few missteps in the predictions. Preseason Rank #34, Preseason Predictions:  crap/crap/and more crap, Final Numbers:  111/31/101/.286/10 or better than crap, as it were.

18. Carlos Quentin – I told you to watch him in February when he first reported to camp. Not sure why I didn’t rank him or make predictions for him. Maybe it was that one week frozen custard bender where I blacked out and woke up in the lap of some large woman wearing a skirted bathing suit. If it wasn’t for Quentin misplacing blame on his equipment, he prolly would’ve ranked higher and might’ve won the MVP. Nothing good will ever come of that temper of yours, Mr. Quentin. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/36/100/.288/7

19. Nick Markakis – The Greek God of Roto didn’t take the power to the next level like I hoped and stopped running completely in the 2nd half. He’s only 24 and you haven’t heard me say “I am Sparkakis” for the last time yet. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/115/.300/20, Final Numbers:  106/20/87/.306/10

20. Jermaine Dye – His lack of speed lands him at the 20th spot, but I’d prefer him to some of his schmohawk contemporaries… *cough* Rios *cough* Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/105/.280, Final Numbers:  96/34/96/.292/3

1. Jose Reyes – I ranked Reyes number two overall in my preseason top ten because I love Reyes.  (He ended up number two overall, as well) He stole a few less bases this year, but he made up with it by hitting a few more home runs. His runs were off, but, as previously discussed in other top 20 lists, offense was down all over. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  130/14/70/.295/70, Final Numbers: 113/16/68/.297/56

2. Hanley Ramirez – Okay, here’s someone I really tried to temper expectations in the preseason by ranking him down at number six for overall top ten and ranking him number two on the shortstop list. These ranks are actually pretty close. The larger problem, I thought his power would come down and his steals would go up. But, in all fairness, my stat prediction was off.  His power was fine, but steals were down. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  110/17/85/.295/45, Final Numbers: 125/33/67/.301/35

3. Jimmy Rollins – I tried to move people away from drafting Rollins last year because he was coming off an over-hyped MVP season. This turned out to be the right move. I thought his power was a fluke, but not this dramatically. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  130/22/70/35/.290, Final Numbers:  76/11/59/47/.277

4. Derek Jeter – Lots of you drafted him because you wanted your girlfriends or wives to have a rooting interest for your fantasy baseball team. Mrs. Razzball reader, “Okay, we can have sex, but I want to call you Jeter.” Mr. Razzball reader, “Deal!” Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/15/70/.315/15, Final Numbers:  88/11/69/.300/11

5. Jhonny Peralta – Here’s a guy I pushed in the preseason. (Not literally. That’s assault.) His power was down in the 2nd half of the season for the 2nd season in a row. This is something to watch. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.270/3, Final Numbers:  104/23/89/.276/3

6. Alexei Ramirez – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

7. Michael Young – He played through a fractured finger to try and get to 200 hits, but still fell short. I’m convinced he would’ve played through the eye of a tropical cyclones for his 200th hit. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/12/95/.310/10, Final Numbers:  102/12/82/.284/10

8. Stephen Drew – Finally starting to come out of that long-injured shadow of his big bro. Yo, big bro, could you hand me the remote? Oh, shoot! Mom, J.D. just pulled his hammy! Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/20/75/.270/15, Final Numbers:  91/21/67/.291/3

9. Ryan Theriot – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

10. Orlando Cabrera – Luckily Renteria is ten spots away. I wouldn’t want a fight breaking out in the top twenty list. Preseason Rank #15, Preseason Predictions:  100/9/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  93/8/57/.281/19

11. Cristian Guzman – The only preseason ‘pert prediction (<–alliteration, boyz!) Guzman even sniffed was, “Guzman will suck.” And that’s me quoting some made up prediction! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/9/55/.316/6

12. J.J. Hardy – All the right metrics were moving in the right direction this year for Hardy. A very promising sign moving forward. Oh, wait, right now we’re looking back. Um… Hardy was almost exactly the player I thought he was going to be. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/80/.260, Final Numbers:  78/24/74/.283/2

13. Mike Aviles – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

14. Miguel Tejada – In the preseason, I hoped Tejada’s machismo from being called out for ‘roids would kick in and lead him to a great season. Turned out the lack of ‘roids manscaped his machismo. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/100/.290/3, Final Numbers:  92/13/66/.283/7

15. Carlos Guillen – I disliked this schmohawk coming into the season and he even underperformed my expectations. Yo, Guillen, go get your shinebox! Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  95/15/75/.300/8, Final Numbers:  68/10/54/.286/9

16. Jerry Hairston Jr. – The fact he made the list says more about the state of the shortstop position than I could write so blah blah blah… Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/6/36/.326/15

17. Clint Barmes – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Jason Bartlett – Jason Bartlett was ranked 19th and he came in 19th. For all of you in nineteen team leagues that didn’t listen to me. I told you so! Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/5/45/.270/25, Final Numbers: 48/1/37/.286/20

20. Edgar Renteria – Because Renteria came in last at number 20, there’s a group of Colombian bandits Renteria hired that are GPS-tracking me. My only chance for survival is the group of Colombian bandits Orlando Cabrera hired to protect me. This is worst than the 80s Cola Wars. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  95/10/75/.295/15, Final Numbers: 69/10/55/.270/6

1. David Wright – My preseason predictions are nearly right on for Wright. Yet, I had him ranked #2 instead of number one. It’s not as pronounced as our first basemen list, but again, we’re seeing a theme in these top twenty lists, offensive was down across the board. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  115/34/120/.310/20, Final Numbers:  115/33/124/.302/15

2. Alex Rodriguez – Okay, you know Arod, so I’ll tangent for a second. He’s headed to being the greatest home hitter that has ever played the game. 553 HRs at the age of 33. He should surpass Bonds in five to six years. Since 1996, he’s been a top ten fantasy player. He is arguably the best we have ever seen. That’s not really much of a limb. Now, has there ever been anyone in the history of any sport that is so roundly considered arguably the best of all-time and simultaneously ignored? (Yes, there were a lot of adverbs in that sentence. My bad.) Not to mention, Arod plays in New York. Yet no one cares about him!  He should be at least as “big” as Tiger Woods, Gretzky or Jordan. He’s nowhere near them. Okay, interesting, perhaps, but what really has me puzzled is why? Is it his lack of personality? Maybe, but Gretzky, Woods and Jordan were/are/were an amalgamation of what their endorsements made them. Is it because Arod excels with such relative ease?  Nah, they all were/are/were effortlessly great. Is it the lack of championships? It would appear so, but here’s the thing. Not everyone is a Yankee fan. If he helps them win 5 championships, this would piss off as many people as it would excite. So because of his lack of success for a team that many of you don’t like, you don’t respect Arod? Hmm… Maybe.  Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  120/42/130/.305/15, Final Numbers:  104/35/103/.302/18

3. Ryan Braun – I had serious reservations about how well he would come back from his insane rookie year. I discounted him as much as I could and I still thought he should be ranked third for third basemen in the preseason rankings. So, as you can see, I still liked him a lot. I was just was trying to temper expectations because I knew his unreal average from his rookie campaign would come down and it did. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/105/.280/12, Final Numbers:  92/37/106/.285/14

4. Aubrey Huff – Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/32/108/.304/4

5. Kevin Youkilis – Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #16, Preseason Predictions:  90/21/115/.290/3, Final Numbers:  91/29/115/.312/3

6. Chipper Jones – I can’t say his name, even in my head, without thinking of the great Skip Caray. You’ll be missed, sir. As for Chipper, he was in some kind of zone for average, but average as a stat yawnstipates me. Rudy will have something this offseason about why average is really the least of your worries when it comes to roto. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/85/.315/5, Final Numbers:  82/22/75/.364/4

7. Miguel Cabrera – Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  110/35/125/.315/4, Final Numbers:  84/37/127/.292/1

8. Aramis Ramirez – What’s that smell? Aramis. His power is going down more than Stephanie Pratt on Doug. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  95/37/120/.305, Final Numbers:  97/27/111/.289

9. Jorge Cantu – Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  92/29/95/.277/6

10. Mark DeRosa – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

11. Melvin Mora – You’re traveling through another dimension — a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land where two Orioles third basemen are in the top 11. That’s a signpost up ahead: your next stop: The Twilight Zone! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/23/104/.285/3

12. Garrett Atkins – Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  85/34/115/.300, Final Numbers:  86/21/99/.286/1

13. Russell Martin – Already covered him in top 20 catchers for 2008. Preseason Predictions:  85/20/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  87/13/69/.279/18

14. Evan Longoria – Didn’t start the year with the club as it looked like the Rays were purposely dragging their feet on another prospect, then he missed a month from August 8th to Sept. 13th and he’s still ranked 14th. Wow. Longoria’s going to be a good one. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/20/75/.285, Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

15. Mark Reynolds – The only player to strikeout more than 200 times in a season. I can handle 200 Ks if you’re dropping your badonkadonk more than 40 times. Reynolds’s 28 home runs? It’s not walking the dog. It’s not applying mustard to the hot dog. It’s not unbuttoning your pants after your second dessert. It just isn’t. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 87/28/97/.239/11

16. Adrian Beltre – I’d like to see someone put together a list of the top ten players of the last twenty-five years who have wasted the most talent. I have to think Beltre is somewhere on that list. Imagine, if you will, a player that has Beltre’s talent and Ankiel’s desire. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/85/.260/7, Final Numbers:  74/25/77/.266/8

17. Troy Glaus – I thought he was going to be bad. He was bad. In the preseason, I ranked him 17th and here he is. Don’t you love how that happens. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/22/70/.255, Final Numbers:  69/27/99/.270

18. Casey Blake – Turned out to be exactly the end of the draft bargain I thought he would be. Many of you probably had Kouzmanoff, Encarnacion, Guillen, Lowell and Gordon instead of Blake, but guess who is on this list and guess who is not. Okay, no fair, you’re looking at the list.  Preseason Rank #21, Preseason Predictions:  75/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers:  71/21/81/.274/3

19. Chone Figgins – A pretty terrible season for Figgy when you look at the numbers, but if you look at how many games he played (116), it turns out he had simply a medicore season. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/5/60/.290/45, Final Numbers:  72/1/22/.276/34

20. Ty Wigginton – Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  70/20/70/.270, Final Numbers:  50/23/58/.285

1. Dustin Pedroia – Booyakasha, Buju Banton!  A funny thing happened on the way to the end of the season, offense was severely down. Not just in the top twenty 1st basemen, but in this list as well. I wasn’t terribly off with my preseason predictions for Pedroia, but his rank was 14th in the preseason and he came in 1st. Insane. I want a new ‘roid.  One that won’t be detected. One that will let a 2nd basemen hit like Kent and help Brian Roberts be respected. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/12/60/.300/12, Final Numbers: 118/17/83/.326/20

2. Chase Utley – You know Utley, so I’m going to relay a story. A friend of mine is a career minor leaguer. He’s had a few cups of coffee in the majors, but to follow that analogy to its conclusion, he’s still drowsy. A couple of years back, he got the September call-up for the Phillies. Being a starter in the minors, he was thrust into the coveted mop-up role. So it’s a 9-1 game, or some equally lopsided score, and my friend gets the call. To everyone in the stadium, it meant a pee break. To him, he got to jog out to a major league mound, something he dreamt about since he was a boy. The appearance was nothing more than a blip on some discarded box score. For him, it was two innings struggling to get hitters out. It was his day, yet it just wasn’t. Back in the locker room afterwards, players still went up and congratulated him on getting to the show. But not Utley. Nope. Utley bought him two prostitutes. They were delivered on one condition, Utley wanted to bang them first. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  120/32/115/.325/12, Final Numbers: 113/33/104/.292/14

3. Ian Kinsler – Would’ve been number one if it wasn’t for a testy testes.  Going down in mid-August, he lost a month and half and still got the job done like Big Daddy Kane. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  110/25/70/.270/25, Final Numbers: 102/18/71/.319/26

4. Brian Roberts – Okay, I’m not a fan. It’s been well-documented on this site. Use the search, candy ass! But… and this is a Queen Latifah-sized but, there’s not a whole lot of guys below Roberts that I really want either. Ugh, 2nd base. The Mapquest said your road was open. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  105/10/55/.290/30, Final Numbers: 107/9/57/.296/40

5. B.J. Upton – Upton had a bizarre season (and similar to Rios). He gave you value, but not quite the type of value you were hoping for, which is a double-edged sword or whatever cliché applies. You needed more power from Upton so, speed or not, he left you wanting more. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/30/85/.280/27, Final Numbers: 85/9/67/.273/40

6. Mark DeRosa – One of those guys that ranks so high because he gave you a little bit of everything.  While at the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, I realized I usually prefer a player that has a lot of one thing rather than the player that gives you a little bit of everything. Why, Grey? Please, fill our heads with fantasy smarts. Ok, random italicized voice, most guys that give you one of something, actually do give you that one thing. For instance, take Ryan Howard (to a Sizzler. My man’s hungry. Wocka-wocka-wocka…). Howard will give you power. Now take Conor Jackson. He’s giving you… Um… Average! Then… Um… Maybe some power. Maybe some speed. In other words, guys that give you a little bit of everything, could give you a lot of nothing. Let me emphasize, this does not include guys that give you a lot of everything (Hanley) or a lot of one thing (Reyes). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

7. Jose Lopez – Went over yesterday in the top 1st basemen for 2008.

8. Brandon Phillips – Here’s what I said in September regarding what I said in January, “…He wasn’t benched until August for the slump that was “all in his head,” (instead of my original January prediction of July)…” And that’s me referencing me, quoting me and paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  80/19/75/.240/25, Final Numbers:  79/21/77/.262/23

9. Dan Uggla – After going into the All-Star break with a .286 average, he tried his damnedest to get to my predicted .245 average. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/30/80/.245, Final Numbers:  97/32/92/.260/5

10. Alexei Ramirez – He’s getting comparisons to Alfonso Sorinao for his smile, swing and doctoring birth certificate skills.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

11. Ryan Theriot – In January, I thought Theriot looked like a nice end of draft bargain. In October, I look like I was right. (Note: Theriot was ranked with the SS in the preseason. In all fairness, I would’ve ranked him about here.) Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

12. Placido Polanco – And here’s the epitome of a little bit of everything. Preseason Rank #12, Preseason Predictions:  90/7/65/.310/7, Final Numbers:  90/8/58/.307/7

13. Kelly Johnson – In reality, he’s a little bit better than Polanco, but his average lands him just below him. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/17/65/.275/12, Final Numbers:  86/12/69/.287/11

14. Mike Aviles – Considering he didn’t start playing full-time until June, you got a ton of value from Aviles and he probably saved a lot of you the agony of rotating Piss Boys, i.e. Willie Harris and Joe Inglett.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

15. Ty Wigginton – During the month of August, Razzball declared it National Wigginton’s On My Team Month So Be Gone Yunel Escobar as Wigginton slugged a new Astros record 12 home runs. That’s right, one insane month and he made it to 15th on the top 20 2nd basemen list. One more good month and he would’ve finished top two. (Note: He was ranked for 3rd basemen, not 2nd basemen.) Preseason Predictions:  70/20/70/.270, Final Numbers:  50/23/58/.285

16. Kaz Matsui – Godzilla Jr. is better than Dinosaur Jr. I have nothing else nice to say about Kaz.  Preseason Rank #16, Preseason Predictions:  75/3/30/.275/25, Final Numbers:  58/6/33/.293/20

17. Clint Barmes – I told you to pick up this schmohawk in April. You could possibly hold that against me. Preseason Unranked, Preseason Predictions:  Bizarre Injury from meat, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar – Went from underrated to underperforming in under two months. (Note: Preseason Rank #18 for SS.) Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Robinson Cano – At some point in May, I convinced myself that Robinson Cano was a buy and due for a turnaround. At some point, someone should have beat me over the head with a blunt object. Oh, Cano, you let me down. Preseason Rank #2 (coincidentally Cano took a number two all season), Preseason Predictions:  100/25/100/.295/3, Final Numbers:  70/14/72/.271/2

20. Akinori Iwamura – More incredible than this schmohawk appearing on the list is Cano showing up right before him and Weeks would be right after him. If you saw that coming, there’s bukkake in your eye. Preseason Rank, None, but rank’s second most common definition is “offensively gross,” Preseason Predictions:  Offensively gross is not a euphemism for a productive hitter, Final Numbers: Bleh!

1. Albert Pujols – Going into 2008, Pujols had some question marks due to a lackluster (by his standards) 2007 and a balky elbow. Pujols took a high-grade tear and put up high-grade numbers. Ruth’s Chris USDA Prime, and ya know that! Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/115/.330/2, Final Numbers:  100/37/116/.350/7

2. Lance Berkman – The real difference between the preseason expectations and the actual numbers are the steals, but I’m going to paraphrase something Rudy says, “If speed is not a player’s game, you can’t count on any steals.” Which means you count on steals from Willy Taveras, you do not count on steals from Lance Berkman. Anything you get is a plus. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

3. Mark Teixeira – I thought he’d put up almost exactly the numbers he did put up. Yet, I ranked him at #5 and he came in at #3. What does that tell you? 1st basemen numbers were down? Excellent, Daniel-san. Now catch me something bigger than a fly and put some Catsup on it. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/35/120/.305, Final Numbers: 102/33/121/.308/2

4. Aubrey Huff – There’s always a few guys that maintain their hot starts that I will never trust — Cliff Lee, Xavier Nady and Aubrey Huff, to name a few. You can own them; just don’t trust them. To paraphrase what I said earlier in the year, Aubrey Huff reminds me of Mike Lowell. Will he get 15 home runs or will he hit 30? Will he hit .250 or .300? Huff’s an enigma wrapped in a girl’s name. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/32/108/.304/4

5. Kevin Youkilis – I was so close in my preseason predictions (I switched Youuuuuuk’s Runs and RBIs because he switched from the top of the lineup to the sixth spot. If people think that’s cheating, here’s something for you), but Youuuuuuuuk jumping from 14th to 5th shows how truly Jason Kendall-weak the first basemen were this year. (This was the point of that Hardball Times article.) I haven’t gone over my research yet for 2009 conclusively, but I do believe 1st base will be a bit deeper next year. This will be something to watch. If your leaguemates overestimate the depth of the 1st basemen position, you could be sitting pretty if you reach for one early. We’ll go over this more during the winter. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  90/21/115/.290/3, Final Numbers:  91/29/115/.312/3

6. Miguel Cabrera – Looks like it was Cabrera that missed Olivo’s hugs more than the other way around. But, in the end, Miguel Cabrera gave about what he always gives minus some runs and average. He’ll probably be in my top ten for 2009. God, I can’t wait for the 2009 season. Is that weird? (Note: Cabrera gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for third basemen. The top twenty third basemen for 2008 will be here next week.) Preseason Predictions:  110/35/125/.315/4, Final Numbers:  84/37/127/.292/1

7. Ryan Howard – Frankly, I want Howard a lot higher than he’s ranked here. His major negative is his average, but you can outweigh that with some high average middle infielders and get exactly what you need from Howard, which is– a recipe for a deep-fried Twinkie? No. Power. Recognize! Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/50/140/.275, Final Numbers:  105/48/146/.251

8. Justin Morneau – Flyball rate stayed, well, down and the power never really came around this season. His “known” makes him seem more valuable than his actual production at this point. Seems like he’s destined to fall somewhere between five and ten in 1st basemen rankings. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/110/.275, Final Numbers:  97/23/129/.300

9. Adrian Gonzalez – He’ll prolly be ranked about here for the next five years. Unless he gets traded to Coors. Holy heffin’ hey! Imagine A-Gonz in Coors? Hey, Holliday, don’t worry about that slacker Atkins. I’m here to hit 45 home runs. You’re welcome. Oh, and I’m a chubby chaser. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  90/33/105/.280, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.279

10. Carlos Delgado – From radio, to the video, to Arsenio… Tell me!  Yo, what’s the best case scenario for Delgado? This yeario, Fife. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  70/28/95/.260, Final Numbers:  96/38/115/.271/1

11. Prince Fielder – You can’t eat salad on a stick! Man up. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  115/50/125/.285, Final Numbers:  86/34/102/.276/3

12. Jorge Cantu – In one of the best threads over in the Razzball forums, I named Cantu as one of my Fantasy MVPs. Poppycock, you say. Okay, but what the eff is poppycock and why are you saying it? When Hafner went down with I-ain’t-got-no-roids-itis and I wanted to commit Pronkicide, I grabbed Delgado or Cantu in just about all of my leagues. Mostly Cantu because he was more available. Anyway, he saved quite a few teams for me. I heart Cantu. Get over it. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  92/29/95/.277/6

13. Derrek Lee – His power really evaporated. There were doubles at the end of ’07 that seemed to be forecasting a power comeback in ’08, but it just never happened. Also, I find it fascinating that his runs are so down from my predictions considering the Cubs success this year. Since this is probably only fascinating to me, I’ll move on. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  93/20/90/.291/8

14. Joey Votto – I steamed up my colored contacts talking about Votto a few times this year — keep Votto? Fo shotto. (Note: I didn’t rank most rookies in the preseason top 20s, but I did make some preseason predictions for rookies.)  Preseason Unranked, Preseason Predictions:  .285/20/75, Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

15. Jose Lopez – He was unranked, but on April 4th, I told you to pick up Lopez, when I said, “If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.” And that’s me quoting me! I’ll have to look at his numbers closer going forward, but I might like him next year (for 2nd base, obviously). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 80/17/89/.297/6

16. Conor Jackson – At 26, his power took a step backwards? Who are you — Felipe Lopez? The only adverb I can think of for Conor Jackson is yawstipatingly. I prefer all of the guys ranked below him on this list, except for Loney. Why, Grey? Why so down? Well, random italicized voice, Conor Jackson is only ranked this high because he gave you 10 steals. That’s no reason to have a 1st baseman. You could’ve had an off-waivers Juan Pierre for one good week and got half of that. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

17. Garrett Atkins – Watch your toes, everyone. Atkins is taking a step backwards. Home runs have gone from 29 to 25 to 21. In 2009, hello 17 home runs. (Note: Atkins gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 17th.) Preseason Predictions:  85/34/115/.300, Final Numbers:  86/21/99/.286/1

18. Adam Dunn – I’m a huge fan of Dunn. Ain’t that apropos? His average took a hit, but his BABIP shows he was pretty unlucky this year. When a guy aims for .250 gets unlucky, it becomes a sub-.240 average. Zoinks! (Note: Dunn gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for outfielders. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 18th.) Preseason Predictions:  100/45/110/.265/7, Final Numbers:  79/40/100/.236/2

19. James Loney – His preseason predictions and his final numbers speak a ton about the problems 1st basemen had this year. See I pegged him for 19th overall amongst 1st basemen and he came in at 19th, you would think his final numbers would be close to his preseason predictions, but his numbers were awful. We get it! 1st basemen numbers were down. School’s out, Alice Cooper. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/85/.315, Final Numbers:  66/13/90/.289/7

20. Carlos Pena – My instincts back in January were to lower him even further than the 11th place perch where I ranked him. As Malcolm Gladwell would say, “Blink, sucka!” Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/22/80/.260, Final Numbers:  76/31/102/.247/1

1. Joe Mauer – Flipping through the book, “Paint Drying: A Photo Collection,” is less yawnstipating than Mauer’s year. I’d argue you’re better off drafting Brad Ausmus, punting him before the season begins, then going with the hot hand from week to week, or at least that’s what I did. We’ll cover more about catcher strategy in the offseason. For right now, let’s say I expected less of Mauer number-wise and he didn’t disappoint, but he actually ranked higher because of how poor the catching position is. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  85/15/70/.310/10, Final Numbers:  97/9/83/.330/1

2. Brian McCann – Here’s the one top catcher I actually have on a team and this was the team that struggled the most offensively. Buh-but, Grey… Wha happened? Because I paid for a high-priced catcher, I had to skimp on positions that could actually make a difference. Well, ain’t that something? No, not really. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions: 75/25/105/.285, Final Numbers:  68/23/87/.301/5

3. Russell Martin – If Vin Scully had said, “Martin reminds me of Benito Santiago and we know what happened to him,” then Scully would’ve been half right. No one has any idea what happened to Santiago. (Renting out scuba gear to tourists on the beach in Barbados is my guess.) All right, pop quiz, random Razzball reader, would you prefer Theriot at 2nd and Shoppach at catcher? Or Martin and Robinson Cano? Catchers that make you go Hmm… Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  87/13/69/.279/18

4. Ryan Doumit – First out of nowhere, “How’s Your Father?” As mentioned in Mauer’s entry, you could’ve drafted some other schmohawk then grabbed Doumit sometime in April, just as I did in a few leagues. BTW, Rudy and I were talking about how important it is to grab hot-starters in April and he’s thinking about writing a feature on it. We shall see… What, how come I’m not talking more about Doumit? Because he’s a catcher and a Pirate, I’m not trying to purposely drive people away from reading the blog.  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  71/15/69/.319/2

5. Geovany Soto – I’d love to see the Cubs win the World Series on the strength of Soto’s three home run clinching game. Not because I particularly like the Cubs or Soto, but I want him to be ridiculously overrated going into 2009. Muahahahaha… (Note: I didn’t rank most rookies in preseason top 20s, but I did make some preseason predictions for rookies. Unranked in Preseason, Preseason Predictions:  17/65/.270, Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

6. Bengie Molina – I’d go as far to say he’s actually less valuable than Shoppach at #8, but the most productive of The Flying Molina Bros. is more valuable than every other catcher below Shoppach so that should tell you all you need to know about the catching position. Pee-ewe-en-tee. Punt! Punt! Punt! Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  45/20/80/.270 Final Numbers: 46/16/95/.292

7. A.J. Pierzynski – Shoppach is the number one reason why you don’t draft catchers. (Actually, Doumit is the number one reason and Shoppach’s number two, but don’t nitpick. People don’t like that.) Let’s say you drafted Victor Martinez and he was crap. Well, you’re stuck holding Victor Martinez for longer than you want because you drafted him early, while your opponent drafted Ausmus, punted that schmohawk and grabbed Shoppach. Wait, why am I talking about Shoppach? Let’s put it this way, do you have something to say about Pierzynski? Yeah, me neither. Preseason Rank #16, Preseason Predictions:  60/15/50/.260, Final Numbers:  66/13/60/.282/1

8. Kelly Shoppach – His numbers are far less exciting than the fantasy baseball media made them out ot be. (Ha! Sorry, I couldn’t write that without laughing at it. The “Fantasy baseball media” is to real reporters as To Catch a Predator is to law enforcement.) Still, for what you paid for Shoppach, you take your medicine and you like it! Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  67/21/55/.261

9. Chris Iannetta – Well, I put Yorvit Torrealba down as 55/12/55/.265/3 so I wasn’t that far off, except for the name. Here’s a guy that I told you to pickup in the first week of May so you were, ya know, warned. Recognize!  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  50/18/65/.267

10. Mike Napoli – Here’s a good example of why it doesn’t matter if a guy starts every day. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  45/13/50/.260/7 Final Numbers:  39/20/49/.273/7

11. Yadir Molina – Here’s a guy that wasn’t even owned in some leagues at the end of the year. I don’t necessarily disagree with that.  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  37/7/56/.305

12. Dioner Navarro – Tale of two seasons with this schmohawk. I was touting him in April and May until I was blue in the face. He got selected to the All-Star game and left his game there, so then I started deriding him. At the end of the year, his numbers make yawnstipating numbers yawn. He’s just boring. (But he’s still young and I may not be done with Dioner just yet.) Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 43/7/54/.295

13. Ivan Rodriguez – And you thought the first twelve names were boring. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  55/10/65/.285/5, Final Numbers:  44/7/35/.276/10

14. Ramon Hernandez – Kinda like his end of the year numbers more than Dioner’s. ¿Porque, Grey? Well, a .292 average from a catcher doesn’t do much, but 15 home runs and 65 RBIs is preferable to Dioner’s girly numbers.  Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  60/20/85/.275, Final Numbers:  49/15/65/.258

15. Kurt Suzuki – Kurt Suzuki? Fantasy baseball junkies, your 2008 catchers!  Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 54/7/42/.280/2

16. Gerald Laird – Considering where he played his home games and Teagarden had 300 less at-bats and exactly the same number of home runs, Laird’s only listed here because he had more Runs and RBIs than some below. You would’ve been much better off streaming catchers that are not listed here instead of owning Laird. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  54/6/41/.278/2

17. Chris Snyder – The last full-time catcher that had any sort of value. For those in 18 team deep leagues, here’s hoping you drew a seventeen or higher in the draft. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  47/16/64/.237

18. Miguel Olivo – There were moments when Olivo was actually valuable to have, unlike Laird. Yes, I’m still looking at Laird! I thought Olivo would miss Miguel Cabrera’s hugs down in Florida, but obviously he didn’t. No matter the climate, Olivo remained marginally usable. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 29/12/41/.255/7

19. Jesus Flores – Paul LoDuca was supposed to start for the Nots, but Flores took the job and never relinquished it. This is not endorsement of Flores as much as an indictment of LoDuca. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers: 23/8/59/.256

20. Rod Barajas – What better way to end the catchers’ recap than by mentioning the first catcher on the list that wasn’t mentioned once by me on this blog. He was mentioned during a Comment O’ The Week, from commenter Knighttown explaining how he managed 0 HRs all year from his catcher spot.

“-I wasted a second round pick on V-Mart.
-Now he’s taking up a DL spot for me which leaves me with 3 for 2 (Putz just sitting idle)
-Picked up Rod Barajas
-Sobered up and dropped Rod Barajas
-Picked up the “red-hot” Miguel Olivo
-He retired or something and got 10 AB’s in the 2 weeks I had him
-Picked up Jarred Salta-something-or-other
-Started him yesterday, went o-fer.
-Dropped him and picked up Ramon Hernandez…honestly, only because he was mentioned in today’s blog.”

Barajas’s Preseason Rank: Ha!, Preseason Predictions: Look Elsewhere, Final Numbers: Crap/Crap/Yuck/Serious Crap

1. Alex Rodriguez – I’d trade my left nut for Arod. In fact, to prove a point, I just did. Are you happy? I’m one-nutted now. You’re welcome.
2. Hanley Ramirez – And there goes my right nut. Now I’m a woman.
3. Jose Reyes – To answer the Bee Gees, my love goes deep, especially for Reyes. He’s on pace for 135/18/70/.300/60. I think he exceeds those steals numbers, which means he does better in the 2nd half.
4. Chase Utley – My only regret this season is not having him on one team. I thought he should go 7th in the beginning of the year and I just never had the right pick.
5. David Wright – His average usually picks up in the 2nd half and he fills every category.
6. Matt Holliday – Think he can chip in ten steals while hitting twenty home runs in the 2nd half. Oh, and a .330 average.
7. Albert Pujols – I’m starting to feel like he’s overrated. .340/17/45 is solid for the 2nd half, but he’s that much better than Teixiera?
8. Lance Berkman – I think he slows down a bit as the season wears on and when he realizes he’s doing it all for nothing. Making the season count out of nothing at all…
9. Johan Santana – No reason why he can’t win 12 games in the second half, even though he only won 8 in the first. Recognize!
10. Ryan Braun – 17/10 in the 2nd half as the Hebrew Hammer does work at the plate on every day but Yom Kippur (<—-forced!).
11. Ryan Howard – Gets to 50/150. You take that with a .250 average and you like it.
12. Prince Fielder – Hey, why do my Tofutti Cuties taste like hamburger? *Yost smiles devilishly*
13. Miguel Cabrera – As I have said before, he’ll have the same numbers at the end of the year he always has.
14. Mark Teixeira – PABST, Post-All-Star Break Stud Teixeira.
15. Grady Sizemore – 15/15/.270 Tastes like Rollins with more power.
16. Jimmy Rollins – Tastes like Sizemore with more steals.
17. Josh Hamilton – First one I don’t feel completely comfortable with, but after his first half I couldn’t drop him any further.
18. Carl Crawford – Strong 2nd half last year. A force in steals, runs and average.
19. Jake Peavy – If the DL-stint this year didn’t worry me, he’d be sitting in first class with Santana.
20. Brandon Webb – His 2nd half last year was insane. I wouldn’t bank on any player to be the same this year as they were last year. It’s not how things work, but I still think he can be excellent.
21. Carlos Lee – Lisa Gray, who’s funny for a broad, calls him Clank Lee. (A funny girl who knows baseball? You schmohawks should be combing your hair just reading that.)
22. Ichiro Suzuki – I don’t know why I can’t get behind Ichiro. I love sushi. Love! I once dated a Japanese girl, which turned out miserably, but other than my current girlfriend, they all end badly, right? I mean, at some point in every relationship you gotta say, “The sound of your breathing irritates me. Let’s breakup.”
23. Ian Kinsler – He can actually build on his 1st half power, but his average will probably come down.
24. Nick Markakis – On the last day of the season, when Markakis reaches 110/30/110/.315/20, there will be a party at my house called, “My Girlfriend Gets Me Back On The Final Day Of The Season If I Still Have A Girlfriend By Then” Party. Hopefully she gets us a stripper.
25. Brandon Phillips – Every single time I rank him, I always want to drop him further, except if I’m ranking overrated players. For some reason, Phillips always makes me feel like this reporter.
26. CC Sabathia – I almost moved him above Peavy, that’s how much I like him in the 2nd half.
27. Vladimir Guerrero – Almost 40 points below his career average, I think he gets much closer to it, which would make for a very hot 2nd half.
28. Carlos Beltran – My placement of so many Mets in the top 30 shows I obviously think they’re going to continue their winning ways. I’m not exactly a fan of Willie Randolph, but it’s a shame that Manual will get credit for the Mets’ resurgence. They are just playing how they should’ve been the whole time, which, in this case, is very good.
29. Aramis Ramirez - I’m still a fan even though I feel like the first half of the year he was giving his owners a dutch pantry. (The first entry, of course. BTW, why is Dutch an adjective that equals kinky shizz dealing with farts? Or you “can go Dutch?” Which is splitting a check. Don’t try and figure this out. You’ll just waste precious man hours.)
30. Justin Morneau – I just went over why I like Morneau.
31. Garrett Atkins – The last two seasons’ second halves have been tremendous. I kinda wanted to push him into the top 30, but his HRs just haven’t been high enough.
32. Chipper Jones – What’s left on the Braves’s season? 67 games. Chipper makes a run at 40 of them, but not a run at .400.
33. Derrek Lee – Mostly a yawn after April. Swapping him for Howard would’ve been the move. But you didn’t do that, did you?
34. B.J. Upton – And, unlike Brandon Phillips, I always wanna move Upton, um, up. Maybe because his initials are BJ. I gotta call my shrink and tell her I’m making progress!
35. Nate McLouth – Tastes like Sizemore but much riskier.
36. Alfonso Soriano – I hope this is the year of the Cubs just so I don’t have to hear how this is the year for the Cubs every year. BTW, Soriano is this low because he has an injured hand. I wouldn’t want to mortgage the farm on a hitter with an injured hand. But he has shown great resiliency in the past so he could be a bargain.
37. Robinson Cano – I’m drunk on my love for Cano. Leave me alone.
38. Adrian Gonzalez – I don’t think he gets above 35 HRs. He’s at 22 HRs. You do the math!
39. Jacoby Ellsbury – 5/30 with a kagillion runs is great. Hopefully his average doesn’t continue to dip.
40. Corey Hart – Just a bit off of Sizemore in terms of production and “getting ladies,” which I guess could be consider production, as well.
41. Josh Beckett – Only a few pitchers moved up in the top 100 from where they appeared in the March top 100.
42. Curtis Granderson – He’s one of the few players that I disliked in March that I actually like more now. Primarily because of his ’07 post-All-Star Break numbers.
43. Cole Hamels – Few pitchers give you 8 Ks even when they have an off game.
44. Bobby Abreu – 10/10 with a chance for a pile of runs and RBIs.
45. Matt Kemp – Power has come on, his Ks are a bit worrisome, but I’m finally buying.
46. Carlos Pena – For those looking for someone who can hit 20 HRs in the 2nd half. Here’s one. I actually like Pena more now than in the beginning of the season. Partly because he can’t have a much worse half than his 1st.
47. Adam Dunn – Here’s another post-All-Star Break twenty home run possibility.
48. Manny Ramirez – The season is long and Manny’s attention span is short. This is the time of year I don’t want Manny.
49. Dan Uggla – If he only hits 10 HRs in the 2nd half with a .240 average, you’ll wish you had Yunel.
50. Roy Halladay – Halladay looks like he’s everything he used to be, but hadn’t been for the past two years. If that makes sense.
51. Jason Bay – I wanted to drop him even further, but when someone’s on pace for 36/10 with respectable peripherals you just can’t do it.
52. Torii Hunter – He’s one hot streak away from a 17/10 2nd half.
53. Carlos Zambrano – One of the few pitchers that’s at even odds for ten wins after the Break.
54. Brian Roberts – Bad three year Post-All-Star Break average and he slows down in the 2nd half.
55. Magglio Ordonez – I don’t feel good about his placement in the rankings because of the injury, but he should be back right after the All-Star Break.
56. Carlos Quentin – I’m worried the average keeps falling, that’s why he’s ranked this low. If you, ya know, were wondering.
57. Michael Young – Two shots of solid, one shot of steady and absolutely no excitement.
58. Shane Victorino – I feel like The Flying Hawaiian is not getting his due. His pace 110/9/55/.280/40. To think some people dropped him in the beginning of the season. Or traded him to Rudy for Matt Capps.
59. John Lackey – Yes, I’m a fetishist for NL pitchers, but I likey Lackey. The problem is the injury in the beginning of the year and his last two starts.
60. Dan Haren – His 2nd half troubles last year are well-documented, I won’t tack on more of the same.
61. Pat Burrell – One of the few players who I would double their stats to this point and say that’s close to what you’re going to get on the season.
62. Brian McCann – Putting up Victor Martinez numbers while V-Mart puts up Jason Kendall numbers. Weird!
63. Geovany Soto – For the search term “Geovany,” this guy used to be on the first page of Google. Nice hat!
64. Justin Verlander – As we said the other day, “Since June 1, 8 starts, 5 Wins, 55 IP, 52 Ks, ERA/WHIP in the 2.70/1.10 area.” And that’s me quoting us!
65. Joe Nathan – Current number one closer in my book. But my book is titled, “I’d Never Draft A Number One Closer.”
66. Jonathan Papelbon – Should be trading these closers sooner rather than later, if you have holes elsewhere.
67. Francisco Rodriguez - Just because he closed 38 games in the 1st half doesn’t mean he reaches 55.
68. Mariano Rivera – And the closer run ends.
69. Tim Lincecum – Innings will begin to pileup and the Giants (if they have any sense in their collective heads) will limit Lincecum in the 2nd half.
70. Kevin Kouzmanoff – So far he’s hit .293 in July. Last year in the 2nd half, he hit .317 with 11 HRs. Maybe this is his thing.
71. Brad Lidge – His Ks can actually make a difference.
72. Chone Figgins – There’s very few players on this list that can impact one category like a healthy Figgins.
73. Derek Jeter – If Jeter starts dating Arod’s ex-wife, I’ll draft him in the first round next year, until that time…
74. Ervin Santana – A decent bet to get to 20 wins and possibly 200 Ks. He’s only ranked this low because he’s never done any of this before.
75. Adrian Beltre – In past years, even when he wasn’t good in the 1st half, he’s been solid in the 2nd half.
76. Mike Jacobs – See no reason why he can’t go .260/15/40 which could be better than Adrian Gonzalez. Cust kayin’.
77. Evan Longoria – Hey, Alex Gordon, this is how you don’t let people down.
78. Chris B. Young – I tried to do these rankings for the most part without looking at my top 100 from March. But I peeked in at where I ranked Krispie. In the 90s. So not only did Krispie have an awful 1st half, but he jumped 12 spots up. He’s failing upwards! Well, this is another sign that these rankings are really trying to look forward instead of look back. I don’t like a lot about Krispie, but his splits last year leaned towards the 2nd half of the year and really all we care about is the 2nd half.
79. Alexis Rios – I hope he finishes strong just so I can stop the hate mail over the winter.
80. Troy Tulowitzki – There’s really nothing that points to Tulo being placed this high. He started off miserably, got hurt, came back with limited results then hurt himself again. So why is he ranked here for the 2nd half? Because if I had to choose between Carlos Guillen and a healthy Tulo, I’d try my hand at Tulo.
81. Carlos Guillen – I’m not a huge fan of Guillen to begin with and his 2nd half last season wasn’t good.
82. Jhonny Peralta – Second to only Hanley and Michael Young for shortstop HRs and RBIs respectively.
83. Chad Billingsley – I believesley.
84. Ben Sheets – I kinda wanted to drop him off the list because of injury history and last year’s 2nd half.
85. Russell Martin – I suppose a catcher going 7/7 excites some.
86. David Ortiz – Papi will hold his best for the playoffs and the Sox will be fine with it.
87. Milton Bradley – It’s just a matter of keeping the injuries in check. The talent was always there.
88. James Shields – Notice who he’s ranked just in front of. The significance is deafening.
89. Scott Kazmir – I put him right after Shields to magnify who I like better. Shields. Dur.
90. Jason Giambi – Stumbled a bit into the All-Star Break, but he can have a ten home run month and pile on the RBIs
91. Paul Konerko – Three year post-All-Star Break average is 16/44/.297.
92. Jeff Francoeur – What, you can root for Hamilton to turn his life around, but you can’t root for Frenchy to turn around his season?
93. Alex Gordon – If he can turn it on this 2nd half like he did last year, he’s worth this spot. If he doesn’t, he further infuriates me. You’ve been warned, Gordon!
94. Hunter Pence – Can be a 15/10 guy in the 2nd half. (I’m not sure I believe that myself, but he can go 15/10. Nope, still don’t believe it.)
95. Miguel Tejada – I considered leaving him off and he seems like he won’t be anything but a higher profile name putting up Kelly Johnson-type numbers.
96. Rickie Weeks – Throw him in Krispie’s sidecar as someone who doesn’t deserve to be on the list, but what he can do makes him impossible to leave off. Actually, I could’ve left him off but I didn’t.
97. Mike Lowell – He’s Puerto Rican and only 34. I always find that curious. Anyway, carry on.
98. Kevin Youkilis – I know he has a history of 2nd half swooning, but he wasn’t even good in June and July last year and he has been this year. I’m going to go out on a wild limb here and say he wins the AL MVP with numbers like 115/30/125/.320/5.
99. Edinson Volquez – When rookie pitchers start to accumulate too many innings, struggles turn to rotation spots being skipped. Then again, Management, “Dusty, you need to limit Edinson’s innings.” Cut to: Dusty’s blank stare.
100. Joey Votto – More valuable than Bruce.
101. Erik Bedard – Because no top 100 list is complete without a 101. Liked Bedard coming into the season. Do not like him at all in the 2nd half. His return is a question mark and he may be shutdown come September. He’s on this list because I wanted to say how much I didn’t like him.  “Yo, Point, where you going?” “Home.” “Jump in, I’ll drive you.”
102. Cliff Lee – I didn’t forget him. I just wanted to.
103. Carlos Gomez/Willy Taveras/SAGNOF – If you need steals, you overpay for them. Why? Because it’s now or never.
104. Jonathan Broxton/Damaso Marte/SAGNOF – If you need saves, you… See right above.
105. Whatever Player Gets You The Championship – It’s now or never, people. I cannot stress this enough. Actually, I can and will post about this tomorrow.

Dustin McGowan – Placed on the McDL. I’d look McElsewhere. He’ll be an interesting sleeper (as they say in the biz, whatever biz this is) next spring.

Scott Linebrink – It was annonced he would fill-in for closer. So, of course, Dotel got the save. Yeah, that works. Thanks. If I was looking for a few saves, Dotel would now be the man I’d target.

Ryan Spilborghs – To the DL with an oblique strain. Doctor, I have an oblique problem. Well, Ryan, why don’t you just be more specific? Oofa!

Derek Lowe – Almost pitched a perfect game. Sounds like Alyssa Milano’s giving herpes to someone tonight.

Scott Hairston – HR yesterday. Guess how many he has. Go ahead. I’ll wait. Wrong! 14. You ready for a double dose of brain freeze? You would’ve got better production if you drafted the Hairstons instead of the Uptons. Ow, my temples hurt! Wait, here comes the knuckler — ESPN: The Magazine should’ve featured the Hairston brothers on their baseball issue instead of the Uptons. Stop, Grey, my eyes are bleeding from these sentences that make no sense!

Moises Alou – Still battling nicks and crannies. Probably has something to do with him being 84-years-old and older than his father.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Jonathan Sanchez – Got a tough break when the rain came and forced his start to get cut short. He could’ve went another two innings. Or not! What am I, psychic?

Carlos Quentin – 2 HRs. I see no reason why he can’t hit 5 home runs a month from now until the end of the year aka 35 HRs total also also known as 14 more HRs.

Garrett Atkins – 2 HRs. Now has 14 on the year, I say he ends with 27. That’s less than most think, making him a Buy Low of Moderate Proportions.

Mark Mulder – In the forums, Peter had this to say, “Mulder recorded one out in the top of the 1st, walked 2, then left the game with an injury…. On the bright side, neither of the runners scored… so it is arguably Mulder’s most effective start since May 17, 2006.” It’s funny, because it’s true.

Josh Hamilton – He gets high on K-Rod’s supply.

Juan Rivera – Hit his third home run and this is officially the last time I will mention him. Some other guys I officially stopped talking about this season are Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Dioner Navarro, Shane Victorino, Eugenio Velez… Okay, they weren’t all gems. (BTW, Velez just got recalled and Bochy said something like this (I don’t feel like looking up the exact quote), “Velez might get to pinch run, but that’s about it.” Seriously, he said something like that. Ouch, right? What? Without the actual quote it loses its oomph? You look it up then.)

Lance Berkman – 2 steals, now 14 on the year. Berkman is making a strong case for Fantasy MVP, if they gave out an award for that shizz. His numbers so far 76/22/70/.348/14. He will absolutely kill some fantasy owners next year when he’s drafted too early.

Jeff Francoeur – You ride out Player A for three months through the worst slump of their career, then you drop Player A on Friday when they are demoted to the minors. Now Player A returns three days later and, in his second game back, he hits a home run. Do you pick up Player A again? Or do you risk watching Player A perform well on someone else’s team? Within the answer to this question is your very existence. If you pick up Player A again, you’re the type to give people lots of chances, including girlfriends. Sure, she slept with my best friend, but she was thinking about me. Sometimes this leads to people walking all over you. You’ll think you’re happy, but you won’t actually be for your entire life. Now if you’re the type that doesn’t pick up Player A, you’re tough as nails, and no one walks over you. You also distance yourself from people and don’t cut people enough slack. We broke up because she talked during the opening fifteen minutes of Goodfellas. NOBODY’S allowed to talk during that. You’ll probably find yourself cold and alone for the rest of your life. And that my friends is the Intro to the Tao of Frenchy. You’re welcome.

…with one month down, it’s no longer so big a gap (between leagues) that we should evaluate pitchers differently. The current league ERA in the NL is 4.07, and in the AL it’s 4.23. In 2007, it was also a small difference, 4.43 to 4.51. Maybe the designated hitter isn’t such a big deal anymore, eh?

Besides, using the word ‘eh,’ there’s about four hundred things wrong with this (you don’t draft entire staffs or entire leagues, you don’t draft every single middle man that is influencing these stats, you don’t start three of five starters in Citizen’s Bank or four of five in Coors, you draft maybe one Marlins starter, maybe two Pirates starters — I could go on, but I’m getting a tumor thinking about this.). So I’m going to focus on the most obvious:

The designated hitter isn’t such a big deal, eh? Who in their right mind would prefer to face a designated hitter instead of a pitcher? Heffin’ hey, are Karabell’s posts being written by Corky for Life Goes On? Sure, Karabell could shat on a piece of paper and win a FSWA.ORG award, but to say the DH is irrelevant is stoopid. (BTW, The FSWA has a mission statement. It’s akin to someone writing down rules for Rock, Paper, Scissors. Picture the FSWA getting together for drinks. “Hey, man, I’m not paying for your second colada!” “Figured I could sneak it through… Like I snuck Wade Boggs through in ’87!” *Belly laughs all around.* But I digress.) In 2007 (I’m going to ignore 2008′s stats because, unlike maybe Karabell, those are the stats I drafted with. Not to mention, one month of stats isn’t indicative of anything other than someone who doesn’t know how to sort stats correctly), the fourteen AL teams placed in the top fifteen teams for OPS for the ninth placed hitter. The only NL team that snuck in was the Cardinals. Why? Because LaRussa, who’s cracked out of his mind, batted the pitcher eighth. So with current DHs sucking up the suck pot, does this mean it’s easier to face them than the NL pitcher? C’mon, only Karabell would think that nonsense. Or another way to put this, Karabell’s off his meds.

Then Karabell talked a bit about how awful some DHs have hit thus far. Again, it’s only one month, but we’ll let Karabell play with his Speak & Spell. Frank Thomas was on his list. The same Frank Thomas who Karabell pegged as a big sleeper. Dude, I’m telling you, you can’t make this shizz up. It’s like Karabell is not a real person but an amalgamation (Word of the Day) of whatever the interns are talking about while they pickup Kruk’s lunch.

Someone else who was in this list, David Ortiz. Now I’m not sure how I even missed this one back in March, but Karabell described David Ortiz as his pick for AL MVP! (Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was needed.) A DH who has off-season knee surgery is who he chooses? Seriously, this is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst. Did he forget when Ortiz had his best seasons people wouldn’t vote for him because he was a DH? Did Karabell call in his pick from Tijuana after a night of ‘ludes and donkey shows? When he chose Ortiz, was he eating a Sonic Coney that caused him to hallucinate? Does his high school bully still torment him and was giving him a noogie until he chose Ortiz? Please, someone explain this to me, cause I’m about to lose it. Meanwhile, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

Are all my leaguemates hated rivals? Nah, some are innocuous. The guy in last place who is starting Howie Kendrick for two weeks while he’s on the DL is no competition — innocuous. Some are annoying. The guy in first who streams starts and keeps coming up aces — annoying. Some are harmful. The guy in first that trades Kotchman for Prince Fielder — harmful. But to be a hated rival, you have to be a worthy competitor who is close enough to you that you can hear about how you screwed up a trade for the rest of your life. So I abstained from trades with Rudy for… well, ever.

So why trade now? Needs and it’s a trade that I don’t think could conceivably bite me in the ass too bad. I mean, I’m only giving up Melky. I like him this year, but I don’t see him suddenly becoming a top twenty offensive force. I think he could be a cheap 15/15/.285 player. On my team, Bill Hall will fill in for Melky, so it’s a downgrade, but not terrible. Most importantly, I needed starters. Right now I’m starting Jair Jurrjens with my last pitching spot. Now before Jair’s minions come out of the webwork, I obviously like Jurrjens, as well. But he’s risky moving forward in a ten team league. With the addition of Greinke, I’m not going to drop Jair, but I think I might have to at some point because he’s unproven at this level. Do I think Zach Grienke is headed for 20 wins and a nothing ERA? Nah, probably not. I’m just hoping he doesn’t take the mound in his next start wearing a rainbow wig, holding a sandwich board that has a psalm written on it in silver highlighter. If he does, I’m sure I’ll hear about it for the rest of my life.

RUDY’S TAKE

This was the equivalent of the Yankees trading with the Sawx. I don’t even like the thought of us trading – it’s like the episodes of Tom & Jerry when they were friends. But when I got offered M. Cabrera for a Royals pitcher, how could I say no? Oh, it’s Melky not Miguel….goddamnit. Larry King is right on about Cabreras…

Even with Melky, this trade works. My pitching staff in this league is STACKED. I had 12 undroppable pitchers – Peavy, Harang, Vazquez, Wainwright, Cueto, Greinke, Rivera, F-Cordero, Capps, Street, B-Wilson, Betancourt – meaning I had no bench slots for hitters. I lucked out over the first couple weeks as Kelly Johnson and Matt Kemp both had great days at times I may have benched them.

I figured Greinke and Cueto are lowest men on the totem pole and that the Zach Attack had more trade value. A swap for Johnny Damon with another leaguemate was declined. I figured Melky was better than nothing – I already got him on two expert league teams anyway. He can start for me until Bourn gets back on track and then I’ll probably rotate him in and out. My pitching staff doesn’t need Greinke – the only category I don’t have a 10 in is Wins which is his worst category anyway (after Saves of course).

Despite the unclean feeling that comes with trading w/ my bitter rival Grey, I think this is a win-win trade even if Greinke goes bat shit again….

I’ve never traded Asdrubal Cabrera for Matt Holliday to a foreign exchange student who thought fantasy baseball in some way involved girls. Yet I’ve been on the veto side of quite a few trades. It sucks, especially when you know you’re getting vetoed simply because you’re in first place and you’ve just made your team better with a completely fair trade. Last year when I got Reyes for Vlad, protest flags flew immediately. Was the trade in my favor? Well, I try not to do too many trades that aren’t, so, yeah. Was it completely lopsided and shouldn’t have been allowed? The guy needed an OF and I needed steals. When I traded Vlad, he had 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and was batting .355 through two months. Unfortunately (for the other guy), Vlad ended up hitting just 16 home runs the rest of the way, but that’s not my fault. That’s my good fortune. The trade went through and I won the league partly because of it.

In related news in the life of Grey (cuz you care!), there was a trade in my ‘pert league that sent Johan Santana to a team for Granderson and Ervin Santana. I was the first person to post a message on the board. I wrote, “Seriously? No… Wait. Seriously?” My “Seriously” soliloquy sparked a controversy, or I was simply the first person to see the trade and comment. Either way, the ‘perts came out blazing. I don’t think it’s my place to list the parties involved or what was said exactly, but I’ll give you the gist:

“This is collusion!”
“How dare you, sir? Collusion would take me actually knowing someone else in this league!”
“Collusion – delusion. It shouldn’t be allowed.”
“My good man, I made the trade and I think it’s fair.”
I chimed in again, “I just thought it was a bad trade on (the team owner who gave away Johan)’s part, but I never thought collusion. Honestly, I don’t even think there should be a protest option. If someone wants to do trade, they should be allowed.”
“Yeah, the trade sucks. But I guess there was no collusion.”
“Yeah, no collusion. Just a bad trade.”
“I still think the trade should be overruled because the trade sucks.”
This last part I will post directly what was written because it made me laugh, but I won’t mention the owner (but he’s free to chime in the comments). “I will weigh in a say that the trade is lopsided, but every deal is. Hey, if (the owner who got Johan) thinks he got a good deal and is happy with that crap for Johan Santana, then (the other owner) needs to be a car salesman! I’ll go on record right now and say Ervin Santana and Curtis Granderson are not going to be the answer (the new Granderson owner) is looking for. And, when it is all over, he will have traded the top pitcher in all of baseball for a SP with a 3-year average of a 4.84 ERA and a .263 OPP BA and a hitter that nets you about a .280/.344/.496 line with 35 steals. Hardly worth it! Oh, just because your child wants to walk into on coming traffic, doesn’t mean you let him for the betterment of society. Trades have a veto button for a reason. Most of the time people need to be protected from themselves more than they want to believe.”

So there’s the gist and a decent argument in favor of the protest button. I disagree with most protests (this crappy trade included), but there ya go. You can accuse us ‘perts of a lot of things, but dispassionate should not be one of them.

When it’s someone you need for your roster.

Stop pussyfooting around and grab the player you want/need. Remember the idiot Cowboy Jon from, like, The Real World 2 who was saving his virginity? That’s who you are if you think saving your waiver claim is a wise move. I don’t care if Jesus, Gandhi or Mitt Rommey told you to save your waiver claim. They’re wrong (in this instance only, of course). Do you want to be Cowboy Jon sitting there in August praying that Evan Longoria is finally called up so you can use your claim? Or how about you’re Cowboy Jon and you finally get to use your waiver claim on Jay Bruce in August and by that time you’re out of the race for first? What farkin’ good is Jay Bruce doing you then? Use your waiver claims fast and furious. While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.

“I just dropped Abreu for Kory Casto!” Well, I hope that was Tony Abreu, not Bobby, because I’m not saying you drop useful players for waiver wire fodder. Act like you know, MC Lyte! This ain’t rocket science. Use common sense, and your waiver claim. You’re welcome.

The participants are:
David Bloom- Baseball Happenings
Jay Sarney & Brett Greenfield – Greener on the Other Side
Brad Stewart- MLB Front Office
Geoff Stein- Mock Draft Central
Adam Ronis- Newsday
Mike Sessa and Chris Corcione- Pseudo Sports
Rudy Gamble- Razzball
Ken Mathe- Roto Advice
Eric Stashin- Roto Professor
Jordan Frank- Roto Rob
Sean Salsbery- Warning Track Power
Arnie The Regular Guy (the one non-blogger in the bunch)

It had been about a month since my first blogger draft and I hadn’t made too many adjustments to my rankings (move Pierre down, move Josh Hamilton and Billy Butler up, etc.).

My strategy remained the same – get the most value out of each pick and don’t leave the draft with any glaring weaknesses (harder in a 12 team league to fill holes via free agency – espec. in an advanced league). After running projections for each team, I feel quite strong about my team in all categories except SB and Wins. But with Pierre and Velez, I’ve got hope in SB and I’d prefer to finish middle of the pack in Wins than use crappy starters and damage my ERA/WHIP.

The only other observation I have coming out of this draft is a mild note of surprise at the number of reach picks that were made (vs. Average Draft Position). Examples include Kinsler in the 4th round, Zimmerman in the 5th round, Hamilton and Victorino in the 6th round, Carlos Gomez and Billy Butler in the 13th round, and Andre Ethier in the 14th round. It goes to show that despite all the mock and real drafts done by the members of this league, it’s tough to know exactly when a certain player might come off the board. I prefer to avoid reaching more than a round over ADP for any player but definitely respect a team going after ‘their players’.

See below for my team and the rosters of the other teams. Those in blue are players that I have on my other blogger league team.

If you are so inclined, feel free to comment on my team…

C (131) Jorge Posada
1B (14) David Ortiz
2B (182) Ty Wigginton
SS (107) Michael Young
3B (38) Garrett Atkins
CI (179) Adam LaRoche
MI (158) Jhonny Peralta
OF (35) Nick Markakis
OF (59) Torii Hunter
OF (86) Jeff Francoeur
OF (203) Nate McLouth
OF (251) Melky Cabrera
UTIL (278) Mike Jacobs
UTIL (206) Juan Pierre
SP (11) Johan Santana
SP (62) Dan Haren
SP (155) Pedro Martínez
SP (230) Andy Pettitte
RP (83) Joe Nathan
RP (110) Mariano Rivera
RP (134) Matt Capps
RP (227) Rafael Betancourt
RP (302) Hideki Okajima

Bench (299) Jon Rauch
Bench (254) Kelvim Escobar
Bench (275) Eugenio Velez
Bench (323) Kazuo Fukumori
Bench (326) Jonny Gomes

• Run (118 SBs in the last 2 years in the minors, leads spring training with 13)

Eugenio Velez can maybe:

• Hit with some pop – Had 20 triples and 14 HRs in single A in 2006.
• Hit for some average – Hit around .300 the last two years in A and AA

Eugenio Velez cannot:

• Field very well at 2B or 3B. Probably sucks in the OF too (eligible at 2B only in Yahoo!).
• Who cares?

Eugenio Velez is an awesome sleeper pickup in fantasy baseball because:

• Kevin Frandsen on SF reportedly tore his Achilles’ tendon today, meaning SF only has four real options at 2B and 3B – Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Jose Castillo, and Eugenio Velez.
• Given the other three are average, injury prone, and much more boring to watch than Velez, I think they’ll give Velez at least 4 games a week in April and play him in a couple of positions like the Angels used to do with Chone Figgins.
• Based on the way he’s running, that could mean 10 April SB (imagine him running against Chris Young on SD…he might steal 2nd and 3rd on the same pitch!)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera – Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.

CATCHERS

Ramon Hernandez – He’s back and his parents didn’t feel the need to spell his first name backwards, so there’s that. (Retire, Nomar, and go prepare a Cobb Salad for Mia.)

Carlos Ruiz – Geovany Soto’s now being touted like he’s the coming Messiah and J.R. Towles might be okay, but you really shouldn’t be going caca-cuckoo for any rookie catchers. You know where your misplaced love should be focused? Ruiz. He could put up Posada numbers with a handful of steals to boot. You’re welcome.

FIRST BASEMEN

Conor Jackson – He’s looking at everyday duty without Tony Clark looming. And, weighing in at 540 lbs. and stepping over the top rope at seven feet-four inches, Tony Clark looms. Conor stops looking over his shoulder and does something. C.J.’s still young, btw.

Casey Kotchman – If I say one more time that Magic recovered from AIDS quicker than Casey recovered from mono, I’m going to hell. Kotchman’s back, ya’ll.

SECOND BASEMEN

Alberto Callaspo — Why won’t Grudzielanek retire? I blame the Royals.

Dustin Pedroia – A Red Sox under the radar after winning ROY? Um, kinda. He’s being undervalued. Whatevs, grab him.

Robinson Cano – A Yankee without farkin’ bees swarming around him? Yeah, sorta. He’s the homer/RBI cheese to your middle infielders’ steal macaronis.

SHORTSTOPS

Yunel Escobar — Here’s what I said months ago, “His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that.” Damn, I got wisdom.

Miguel Tejada – Okay, not exactly a sleeper in the conventional sense, but he’s not done. He ripped up DR’s winter ball in the offseason and he’s playing with something to prove (that he’s urinating clean).

THIRD BASEMEN

Alex Gordon – Disregard last season and give him another shot; in ’09, he’s not going to be cheap.

Edwin Encarncion  – I never thought I’d say this, but I actually like Edwin Encarncion a lot this year. I got hate in my heart for him because he doesn’t run out routine popups and Dusty may get sick of that shizz, but here’s to Edwin hustling this year.

OUTFIELDERS

Matt Diaz – So what he’s got a rep for killing only lefties, you can’t make roster moves? Slot him in against lefties. FYhoo, I think he hits both sides this year.

Luke Scott – Anyone with the first name Luke can play baseball. Just not in the majors (Luke Appalling, excluded). I hesitated putting Scott on this list, but he gets a shot this year. Worth a late round flier to take a gamble. (Full disclosure: I try to only give advice I would follow, and I won’t draft Luke in any league, so, well, now you know.)

Michael Bourn – I’ve covered Bourn so much, he’s moving into mancrush territory.

Carlos Quentin – I don’t even know if he has a job. Let’s hope he does, because last year wasn’t indicative of his talent.

Shane Victorino – I’ve  touted Victorino to the point where I’m not even sure he’s a sleeper anymore. Anyway, I would/will draft Victorino as my 3rd outfielder. You have to have Victorino on your team this year. I may start a running piece on my love for The Flying Hawaiian. I got lots of love to give.

STARTERS

Adam Wainwright – Look at his splits from last year. Took him three months to recover from that closer experiment and he was on point after the All-Star break. (He burned me in the 1st half of last year too, you gotta give him another chance.)

Manny Parra – You want this year’s Yovani? Parra will make everyone’s list next year. You get him this year, especially in keepers.

Zach Greinke –  If  he takes his mental health pills every day, he could be a force this year. Could the Royals be this year Brewers? Perhaps, Ms. Cleo.

CLOSERS

Carlos Marmol – He’s dealing and the Cubs (specifically Lou) want to win.

Joey Devine – I’m not convinced Devine won’t lay a turd baby at any moment, but Huston’s either moving on or getting injured.

Jeremy Accardo – If BJ’s hurting at any point in Spring Training, Accardo’s not a sleeper. You draft him like he’s your number two closer.

Aaron Heilman — Sorry, Mets fans, Wagner got old last year. Heilman gets at least fifteen saves this year. Act accordingly.

Al Reyes – Why doesn’t someone book a cruise for Grudzielanek and Percival? I blame the Rays.

Last name that I want to highlight:

Scott Baker – I haven’t seen much buzz about this dude, so I figured I’d drop him in at the end. I have nothing to say, except in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. Read those numbers one more time. Now he’s not ringing up 200 Ks this year, but that strikeout to walk ratio is a magical first step to finding value where others may not see it.

While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.

There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.

Let’s get on with the debunking…

Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.

Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.

Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).

Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8

This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).

Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.

Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.

Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.

C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs

Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).

Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.

Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.

Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.

Yes, I know. BJ Ryan in 2007.

But here’s my top 10 closers going into 2007 and their eventual finish amongst closers in our 2007 Player Rater. and ESPN Player Rater:

1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)

So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.

But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:

Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th

So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.

From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.

While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.

Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).

Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.

“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…

Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):

ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9

The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).

For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:

(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)

So here’s my advice….

Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.

The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.

I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.

If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it – this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.

But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)

I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).

The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.