Did you see last night’s Yankee/Red Sox clash? No? It lasted a super fast 2 hours and 20 minutes and here’s a recap: Sale crushed souls to start the game and then gave up runs late. Masahiro Tanaka threw the year’s first Maddux (CGSO under 100 pitches) and it was glorious. Maddux’s are fantastic. The dominance and efficiency is a thing of beauty (Come on DFS sites, let’s get a Maddux bonus!). On the other side, the Red Sox offense continues to struggle. They have the league’s worst isolated power (.107) and are a below average offense (99 wRC+) with the league’s 2nd best BABIP (.319). They are thoroughly mediocre despite getting well above average offense from Benintendi (143 wRC+), Betts (144) and Moreland (151). Hanley (62), and Pedroia (66) are going to rebound, but I’m not sure that regulars Chris Young (77) and Pablo Sandoval (74) will improve by much – those numbers are likely just who those two players are at this point in their careers. A rebound from Hanley and Pedroia will likely be offset by the normal regression of Benintendi and Moreland and the extreme regression of Christian Vazquez after he just had the best 25 PAs of his life (254). All of this means the Red Sox might be an offense to target in GPPs with pitching because without Ortiz it relies on Betts and Benintendi and a bunch of average-ish bats.  As we are seeing with Toronto right now, you take a link or 2 away from a very top-heavy chain and the entire thing breaks down.

On to the picks once we celebrate the year’s first Maddux, which are better than no-hitters…

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I’m salivating about my hitters against Mr. Home run allowed Jered Weaver and his 84 MPH fastball in Chase Field.  Weaver has allowed a whopping seven home runs in twenty three innings this year.  But wait, he gave up 37 in 178 innings last year.  In fact, Mr. Weaver has given up 68 home runs in his last 360 innings.  And half of those innings have come in Angel stadium and Petco Park.  These are not home run havens, need I say more.  I should?  Well ok then.  Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300) has been hot hitting .522 with 2 homers in his last 7.  He’s 3 for 4 with a homer against Weaver and he loves home cooking at Chase.  Meanwhile, Jake Lamb ($3,800) has hit .293 this year with .333/.614 split against righties, and Lamb hit .291/.621 in the first half last year before he injured his hand.  Really, Dbacks galore so take your pick among Lamb, Goldy, A.J. Pollock, Chris Owings, David Peralta, and even Brandon Drury (if he’s not hobbled today; check those LUs).  Weaver will be giving, I promise.  There are other stacking targets like the Cards against Matt Latos, the high-powered Indians against Mike Fiers, or the obvious Coors stacks, but I still dream of a Jered matchup .  That 84 MPH heater against Senz’s at 94?  Is 84 MPH actually a heater?  Exactly.  This is why I dream of Weaver today.

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Today’s slate is chalked full of horrible pitchers and the launching pad we know as Coors Field.  This is the worst kind of situation…you have Colorado/Washington in Coors who everybody wants to stack.  Adding two trashy starting pitchers going – Tanner Roark and Tyler Chatwood – makes this a nightmare situation for DFS players.  In cash games this seems simple, you just play them and move on.  In GPP this isn’t so easy, everyone is going to have a piece of this game.  You can differentiate yourself by doing the opposite, I personally will be doing that.  Do this 10 times and you may only be right a few times,  but your probability of winning big money goes WAY up.  So fair warning, I won’t be covering Colorado or Washington guys in my picks.  Obviously you can play them, and should play them (especially in cash games) but I’m here to try and win you all a GPP!

Now onto the picks…

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care! 

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I’m with Streamonator: Carlos Carrasco is your No-Brainer O’ the Day. (Not to be confused with your Darren O’ the Day, which is a fish submarine sandwich.) The last time Carrasco faced the White Sox, at home, it was to the tune of 1 ER over 7 innings, and this matchup is in the more pitcher-friendly Sox park. (Mind you, his last start versus the Tigers was a tad more worrying — still only 2 ER, but he struggled with command.) But today on FanDuel, he’s $10,300. And at the same time, the Giants are in Coors. I’ve set myself a silly challenge: to play Carlos Carrasco AND stack as many Coors bats as possible, all while plugging the remaining holes as cheaply (and well? Ha) as I can. And you’ll see that through my own stubbornness, I’ve created possibly the most lopsided FanDuel lineup ever, one that will need complete rejigging if any one of my players doesn’t actually start. Like George Michael, I may come to be filled with regret and (totally logical consequence to cheating on someone!) never dance again, but it’s not for nothing that my mother calls me Victoria Mary Quite Contrary. So here goes!

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28.4, 12.2, 21.4, 34.1, 24.9, 43.6, 28.7, 31.4. What Power Forward game log is this? You have a 7x day where he puts up 20 points and 15 rebounds, a day where he flopped hard because he got in foul trouble, and then a lot of 4x and 5x scores. Wait, what’s that? It is the last 8 games of Eric Thames? That’s absurd. I’m not even saying he’s a great play simply because of his last 8 games, but Adam Wainwright’s a decent innings muncher, who is losing the ability to get ground balls so Thames is in play again, even at his elevated price. Are we at the point where Thames is always in play because he’s a good hitter who obliterated the KBO and will spend 2017 obliterating major league pitching. I think the previous sentence answers your question. You might be asking where does Eric Thames rank in the greatest hitting seasons ever with a minimum 50 PAs? And I would tell you that it’s not first, it’s actually 2nd. Yes, Eric Thames 281 wRC+ ranks 2nd. That’s because Freddie Freeman this year has a 282. It helps when you decide that outs really aren’t your thing for 3 games. I’m also sure you are wondering who’s 3rd, and I will tell you that this year Bryce Harper is 3rd at 256. We’ve had some insane starts this year, but only one of them is making crotchety old pitching coaches and grumpy veteran pitchers subtly hint “things.”

On to the picks as soon as Freddie Freeman makes an out…wait, that may be a while…I’ll just do the picks now…

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If good pitching beats good hitting most of the time, what does bad pitching do against good hitting?  Or even bad hitting?  Someone, somewhere (ok, in San Diego) will have to have a big day against Patrick Corbin.  I think it’s more than one player and yes, even the bad hitters.  I like my righty hitters against Corbin even in Petco.  Patrick has been terrible since coming back from TJS.  Last year he allowed 24 homers in 155 innings with a .286 BAA.  This year he’s only allowed 1 homer but still a .303 BAA with 7 BB and only 7 K in 16 innings.  Maybe he’ll get it back some day, but that day won’t be today.  Manuel Margot at $2,800?  Yes please.  Hunter Renfroe at $2,900?  He’s only got 1 K in 19 AB’s against lefties.  I think K rates stabilize the quickest so I’m in there as well.  Your usual suspects for the Padres…well suspect – Wil Myers at $3,800 – should also be considered.  Outside that, most (ALL) of my picks are against bad pitching.  Is there any other way?  Once again I’ll do it my way.  Ok, Frank’s way!  Either way….no regerts this week.

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Welcome to another beautiful Wednesday slate.  I was so pumped for this slate until I looked and realized Clayton Kershaw $12,900 is on the bump..Don’t get me wrong I love Kershaw; he’s an amazing pitcher.  My only issue with him is he makes the DFS slates he’s in very tough.  You basically have to use him, even in GPPs.  If you don’t and he goes off for 13 ks over 9 shutout innings, you’re screwed.  Today is no different as he’ll be pitching against the Rockies (remember that almost perfect game??) and the total is only 6.5 right now.  Don’t overthink this;  play Kershaw and try to find low owned value plays to build around him.

Now onto the picks…

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Hello, peeps! It’s the day before the most wonderful day of the year: it’s Chocolate Eve! Today, somewhere in a burrow far, far away, the Easter Bunny is busily laying his eggs and packing them into baskets, ready to be delivered to all the good children. (Sidebar questions: Why is a rabbit laying eggs? Why is he a he and not a she? Why use baskets, an incredibly impractical mode of transportation for eggs? WHY IS HE GIVING AWAY HIS OWN CHILDREN TO BE EATEN?). And if you’re good today (at drafting your FanDuel team, that is), perhaps you will be delivered a bunny-dle of cash tomorrow along with all that chocolate. So let’s hop to it and look at some options for FanDuel for Saturday April 15.

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Now that I’ve got your attention – I want to point out that it is indeed true that Noah Syndergaard is way worse than Scott Feldman. Now I hear everyone asking – in what stat or skill could Thor be worse than Scott Feldman? Well, the singular skill of preventing steals. Thor just happens to be the absolute worst at it in the game. Yes, worse than Jon Lester, who refuses to throw to first because it crushes his soul. In 333.2 innings, Thor has allowed a eye-opening 86% of runners to steal successfully (worst in the majors amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings since 2013). However, it’s not just the rate at which players steal on him, it’s also the volume – he allows a stolen base once every 5.3 innings. For someone who doesn’t allow that many base runners, that’s a staggering number – and it’s by far the worst in the majors – the next 3 worst are Tyson Ross, the aforementioned Scott Feldman, and Jimmy Nelson, who allow a stolen base once per 6.6, 6.7 and 6.9 innings, respectively. Looking at it another way, 21% of the runners who get on 1st base and aren’t blocked, steal – and like the other statistics mentioned, that is by far the worst in MLB. While this wart has done nothing to stop Thor’s dominance, ignoring it in DFS could hinder your dominance. Don’t be afraid to target basestealers against Thor – yes, they have to actually get on base, which is not easy, but if they do, that 3-point single suddenly becomes a 9-point single and stolen base. Also, Scott Feldman is pretty bad in his own right at this (13.7% of unblocked runners steal, only 4th worst.)

Picks are coming right after this stolen base vs Thor…

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: Regerts, I’ve had a few.

Me:  Here Frank, have a Snickers.  Better?

:  Yah.  Why?

Me:  You’re not yourself when you’re hungry.

My wife and I went to see a Frank Sinatra impersonator the other day.  He did Frank.  He did Sammy.  He did Dean.  Shoot, I think he did my wife.  What he didn’t do is regret stacking Tigers against James Shields last week.  Because he didn’t.  Stack, that is.  He sang pretty well though.  Shields was not a great stack.  You know who has a great stack?  Never mind, I won’t regert, er, regret answering that one.  I did win both my bets though.  The Pale Hose allowed me to cover the over against the Tigers and the Nats won.  Ha!

Enough looking back.  Let’s look at our Thursday choices for FanDuel.  We’ll have it…..My Way!  Ha!

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond?  Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.  Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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