Fantasy Baseball Advice

Across all of my deeper leagues, invariably Chipper Jones is on one of the top teams. In the shallow leagues, Chipper is buoying teams above fifth place all by myself. Heard the Braves announcers talk about Chipper’s chances at .400. A question that would make more sense is, “What’s Chipper’s chance to get 400 at-bats?” I think he gets there, at-bats that is, not average. He’s a .309 career hitter, but his average has been steadily climbing as he gets older (which is a normal occurrence, batters just get better at knowing what they can and cannot hit). So he could hit .350. But unless you’re struggling with a lot of low average guys, average is, well, average. Chipper’s home runs have been declining. He hit 29 home runs last year, but 12 in April/May, so his early season outburst this season isn’t necessarily a sign of great things.  Of course, everyone’s main concern is his games played. I think you have a better chance of guessing what Joey from The Real World: Hollywood is going to say next than how many games Chipper is going to play. (Sober Joey, “I’m an alcoholic! And I love the albino stripper.” Drunk Joey, “I love everyone, but really love the albino stripper!” Drunker Joey, “I will rip off the albino stripper’s head and toss it into the eight foot aquarium!” Sober Joey, “I wasn’t like this when I came into this house!” Actually, now that I write it out, that’s much more predictable than Chipper Jones’s injury history. But I digress.) So going forward with Chipper, what did we learn from this exercise? The home runs are not going to get into the forties. He will miss some games. He won’t bat .400, but should get to 400 at-bats. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Claudio Vargas – Should be owned in all NL-Only leagues. (And all leagues that require you have a Vargas on your team. But then, Claudio Vargas was probably already on a team.)

Carlos Beltran – The Mets pitching staff and I often sat in the dugout sipping espresso, then afterwards would talk baseball. During batting practice, I discussed open and closed stances with Howard Johnson. We laughed about “high hard ones” and Carlos Beltran punched me in the nose.

Scott Feldman – Looked tremendous today, giving up only one earned run. He was about to be featured in the opening, until I realized he was facing the Mariners. Right now, he’s not that great looking forward. (I mean, he is capable of looking forward, just his stats may not be that good in the future.)

Jeff Clement – He’s one game away from qualifying at catcher in five game leagues. (That means he just caught his fourth game, Einstein.)

Gary Sheffield – He’s moving back to DH. The same DH spot that he said was the reason why he was hitting poorly. I think he’s hurting and just playing around with excuses. He shouldn’t be on any teams at this point.

Nick Johnson – He has a sore wrist. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Jim Edmonds – He will force Felix Pie back to Triple-A. Matt Murton better clean off his couch.

Manny Parra – Thank God for the Dodgers’s offense.

Guillermo Mota – Let’s try Torres.

Blake DeWitt – Has the highest average amongst rookies and he just hit his third home run.

Jeff Kent – You know how you can tell when a baseball player is suddenly old, when they look like Luis Gonzalez, but not as agile.

Brett Myers – I mentioned before that Brett Myers and I went to poetry night at The Turtleneck on Philly’s South Side. It was April. Brett had just thrown an eight K performance at the Bank. He said he could have struckout nine. I said it was a good outing, though not a great outing and that’s the way it was for future middle relievers. We laughed over this and Brett Myers punched me in the nose.

Ryan Howard – Barring injury, still looking at 40 home runs as he now sits on 8 after a home run yesterday.

Blaine Boyer – Got the Atlanta save. Just another member of the committee.

Ian Stewart – So far I’ve picked him up and dropped him three times in the last two weeks. (Yes, I am that annoying owner.) My thought process is, I pick him up and hold him for a couple of days. When I need another hitter for a short schedule day, I drop him. If I have him when he is called up, I’m golden. If I don’t have him, then chances are he’s on waivers and at least someone has to use their claim for him. Win-win, in my book. (BTW, that book is titled, “Annoying the Crap Out of Your Opponents When They Don’t Restrict the Amount of Adds and Drops, 7th Edition”)

Scott Downs – Just got his fifth save.

C.C. Sabathia – I think this is closer to the Sabathia you’re going to get this year. I also don’t have him on any teams. Just when you think I’m going right, I go left! Or maybe left-right!

John Lackey – Looked solid in his return with 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 4 Ks. Pretty far off in the pick the line game.

James Shields – Very solid game in the loss.

Robinson Cano – 4-for-4. His buy low time quickly evaporates as he’s batting .350 with two home runs in May.

Mike Mussina – I mentioned before that I was in St. Petersburg. It wasn’t the first time I had been to Florida. I was there many years ago with Mike Mussina. Mussina had just finished second in the Cy Young voting and we were competing in a Scrabble tournament. He had just pulled the tiles t-h-k-k-o-y-a and I said there was no way he could make a seven letter word from that. He said this is the first time I’ve had two Ks all year. We laughed over this and Mike Mussina punched me in the face.

Curtis Granderson looks like the same hitter he was last year. Just without the luck. He had a .391 BABIP last season. Whoa, Grey, those numbers scare me. Grab your blankie, and listen. I’m trying to educate you. Razzball Point Shares ranked Granderson 73rd overall. Baseball Prospectus put Granderson’s 2008 projections at 88/21/80/.267/15. They were admittedly being generous. They did not rank him in the top ten for outfielders. Adam Dunn is ranked tenth. Granderson’s speed and power will remain, but those home runs and steals may come at a price. If you could trade him for Vladimir Guerrero or even Corey Hart, I would do it. I don’t think you can get, say, Johan Santana. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Eric Gagne – Backne into the closer’s role. How far has he fallen? When he closed it out, Shouse was warming up in the pen just in case. I’m positive Gagne’ll blow another save by this time next week. If you have room, hold onto Torres or Mota.

Edinson Volquez – He fell into some trouble in the fifth and looked like he was getting frustrated even when he was getting some good calls by the ump. *I’m going to write this next part before the Reds go to bat in the fifth with Volquez due up third* Volquez is removed for a pinch hitter and finishes the game with 95 pitches thrown. A great start again from Volquez, but his temperament when he started to walk people in the fifth should be watched. *Okay, I’m going back to real time.* OF COURSE, HE’S BATTING IN THE BOTTOM OF THE FIFTH. Hey, Dusty, Mark Prior called, he wants his arm back. Luis Gonzalez just singled to leadoff the sixth. Why is Edinson starting an inning when he’s at 95 pitches and his top of the fifth was a very stressful inning? I hate Dusty. Well, it ended up okay, although Jacobs hit a long fly ball to the warning track to end the inning.

Jeff Keppinger – The knee bone is connected to the… Oops. Drop him in all leagues. People probably aren’t even reading this, unless it affects them, so I’m talking to the former Keppinger owners. I feel your pain, man! *manly pat on your shoulder* He was having a very solid MI season for NL-Only. I know, I had him. This injury kinda killed me. Who I’m looking at for replacing him: Vizquel, Cedeno, Hairston, Amezaga, Izturis and Bruntlett respectively. Not a noisemaker in the group.

Khalil Greene – Hit another home run. I have this theory that all mulatto children are attractive, so I’m going to assume Khalil doesn’t have any coffee in his cream. Just not sure where the name Khalil comes from.

Ryan Garko - The entire Tribe team is too talented to struggle offensively forever.

Matt Joyce – Took Greinke deep. He could be some cheap power.

Ronny Paulino – In NL-Only leagues, he’s getting a bulk of the starts because Doumit is headed to the DL.

Kevin Slowey – I’ve already mentioned how I’m not a huge fan of AL pitchers, but Slowey is one I like.

Jo-Jo Reyes – When Hill went down, I said Jo-Jo was a good possible replacement. He pitched better than his four earned runs. Howard hit him hard, but not much else. Also, no walks.

Jeremy Guthrie – Another starter I pegged to look at to replace Hill. He beat the Sox with solid Ks.

John Maine – Ya’ll know how I feel about Maine. I did rank him fifteenth overall for starting pitchers.

Zach Greinke – Labored a bit in this start, but made the big pitches when he had to. BTW, this was against the Tigers, the team that was pegged coming into the season as the ’27 Yankees. Even though sportswriters say that shizz every year in March about at least three teams.

Edwin Jackson – Since we have on our throwback jerseys, the Yankees look like the ’86 Angels minus the pitching. I can’t imagine Girardi is thrilled with this group. Jackson looked good again. He was a great prospect and he’s still very young (24). I think you absolutely have to give him a shot at this point. He should’ve got the win if it wasn’t for Percival, who surprisingly wasn’t on the ’86 Angels. It just feels like it.

Jered Weaver – The one-hitter left Ozzie Guillen with no one to kiss.

Eddie Guardado – Those saves vultures out there might want to look here, especially after the poundings CJ Wilson took the last two times out. If he gets roughed up like that a couple more times, Ron Washington may open up the “Conventional Baseball Managing for Dummies” book and pitch a righty in the ninth.

Stephen Drew – Since my trade of Shawn Hill for Stephen Drew was turned down faster than Eckstein trying to buy beer, Drew’s gone 6/2/7/.333.

Cliff Lee threw nine innings of shutout ball to lower his ERA to 0.67. Seriously, he’s not Bob Gibson. He wasn’t even the best pitcher in his game last night. Shaun Marcum got him there. If someone’s buying into Lee’s early season performance, can you command a high offensive guy in a trade? You can try. His brother from another mother, Carlos Lee? Maybe. Markakis? Rios? Tex? Possibilities. This is why you have to send out feelers. Cliff Lee will be untradeable at the first sign of trouble. He doesn’t have a track record to instill much confidence. If you can’t get someone to trade Lee to right now, you have to hope he has a career year and doesn’t regress to his career norms. His peripherals all look solid, but history tells us he’s not what he’s been thus far. I would not trade for Cliff Lee (unless the owner is worried the correction is coming and wants to undersell him). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Erik Bedard – Gave up 6 ER in 2 IP. Blowing a 5 run cushion after the top half of the 1st inning. In fairness, Texas has a really deep lineup: Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Bradley…. Um… Toby Harrah, a guy named Murphy, a Boggs that only plays like he drank 70 beers and Chuck Norris.

Eric Gagne – He pronounced himself fit to close. Other fifteen NL teams agree with him.

Alexis Rios – With Wells’s injury, he’s now batting third. But in one game yesterday, Wilkerson led off. Wilkerson was cut by a team that is starting Jose Vidro at DH.

Adam Wainwright – Co-Chief Officer of Razzball saw a blip on the radar.

Clay Buchholz – The argument over who’s better — Buchholz or Philip Hughes — rages on. Phil Hughes might take the lead soon buoyed by a stint on the DL for a fractured ERA.

John Van Benschoten – Rudy picked him up for his Razzball team. How could he not take a flier on a Pittsburgh starter with Bench in his last name? His 4 IP with 6 ER and 11 base runners were all he could’ve hoped for. Can’t wait for San Francisco to bring up their 1B prospect Bobby Easyout.

Adam Dunn – He has to be the worst RBI guy ever for a 40 HR player. Best case scenario with men in scoring position – sac fly. 5 for 29 with men in scoring position — 11Ks. Last 3 years (2005-2007), he’s hitting .236 with runners in scoring position. Someone tell Dusty that Dunn should be hitting 1st or 2nd. He’s great for OBP. Keep him out of the middle of the lineup.

Barry Zito – He got a victory against the Astros last night. A moral victory. Get the man some orange slices.

Adam LaRoche – He slumped in April like he does every year. 4 HR in last 9 games. He’s got to be available in some leagues.

Livan Hernandez – He’s 6-1. Johan Santana is 4-2. Silva and Lohse continue to get rocked. The Twins are geniuses! (It’s just a matter of time before Nick Punto explodes like Pat Neshek’s elbow.)

Dioner Navarro – Okay, I promised not to say his name again, but I keep getting questions about Johjima and Pudge. Those schmohawks should not be on a team, except in the deepest of leagues. DNV (<—-forced nickname) went three-for-three with 2 RBIs. He’s now batting .363 over 72 at-bats. Last year’s post-All-Star break numbers were 30/8/31/.285/2 in 179 at-bats. He’s only 24.

Wladimir Balentien – Mentioned two weeks ago how Rudy grabbed Wlady while I grabbed Lind, just to spread the Razzball love even though I liked Balentien more. Yeah, I should’ve just grabbed Wlad the Impaler.

Jair Jurrjens – With two outs, Freddy Sanchez got a double that scored three. It was a clutch hit, but Jurrjens looked just fine. I’m still buying.

Aaron Harang – He didn’t pitch that well, but won. See what I mean about wins. Yeah, he’s 70th and Webb’s 10th overall.

Rafael Furcal – Lands on the 15-day DL with a strained lower back. Hope Mia Hamm has a cute friend for him.

Fausto Carmona – Another guy I’m not sold on. His 18/35 K/BB is a disaster waiting to happen.

Mike Jacobs – He was supposed to be back in the lineup last Friday. Not according to me — according to the Marlins. Seriously, teams should be required to release accurate injury reports. I’m having trust issues!

Luis Castillo – Looks like he might be headed to the DL with a strained quad. Castillo has had strained quads for 6 years. That’s like putting Willie McGee on the DL for ugliness.

Josh Hamilton – He is the only player in the majors who has gotten better since he’s been off drugs.

It’s with no regret that I announce (Well, I’m not exactly announcing it. The Brewers are, but bear with me.) that Eric Gagne is no longer the closer. Officially, the Brewers say it’s a mental break. I say, it’s a “You can’t take steroids anymore and the Brewers should’ve never acquired him in the first place” break. On Friday, I told you I think Salomon Torres will walk away with a large chunk of saves. If he’s gone, as a speculation on Gagne’s replacement, you have to grab Mota or Riske. Grab everyone basically, even Shouse, if you need saves. I think Gagne will be eventually back closing for the Brewers and he’ll get five or six more saves before he undoubtably needs another mental break. Guess now he’ll have time to tuck in his shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I (and others) saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto – I missed the Mets game because I was hungover and needed to submerge my head into a tub of ice. So I put Rudy on the case, here’s what he said over IM, “Castillo got a gift triple in the first which led to 3 runs, but they were crushing Cueto in the first 2 IP. Then 2 innings were fine. Then a bullshit infield single for Castillo. K’d Wright. Then hung a curve that Beltran hit into orbit. No great story other than Cueto’s stuff is good, but remains a risky bet. I wish I traded him to you instead of Zach Attack. Parra’s unstartable, but I’m starting Cueto outside of Colorado. BTW, you’re the greatest writer in the history of blogs. In fact, blogs should be renamed to Glegs, which is a portmanteau (Word of the Day).”  Thanks, Rudy.

Brian Bannister – I was vomiting blood during this game, so I turned to my Uncle Yitz, who lives in KC, “Bannister is luckier than a blind man in a braille store.” Thanks, Uncle Yitz.

Carl Crawford – Blood turned to phlegm so I let Momma Grey write this one for Mother’s Day, “Carl who? Is that our mailman?” “Maybe you’re thinking of Karl Malone.” “Karl Malone is our mailman’s name?” Thanks, Mom! I still believe Crawford gets over 20 home runs and I’d trade for ‘our mailman’ in a second.

Ryan Braun – Everyone’s well aware of my stance on Braun, but he did hit two home runs yesterday. I say sell, but you do what you do.

Shawn Hill – Still not getting Ks or Ws like I’d want, but in deep leagues, you can do a lot worse. Actually, in shallow leagues you could do worse.

Khalil Greene – Been a buy low candidate for me for about a month. He is what he is, which is 25 home runs. If you like that sort of thing, you’ll enjoy KG.

Santiago Casilla – Finally gave up some runs, but he just got another win. Listen, when it’s time to bail, I’ll give you a heads up, but fantasy baseball is like a craps table. When the table’s hot, ride the effin’ table. When the table’s cold, go to a strip club.

Jonathan Broxton – I know you want to drop him quickfast. I think that’s being too reactionary. He recently had problems with his lat muscle, so he might not be himself. Bench him for a few days to see if yesterday’s outing was a one time bludgeoning or if you need to do a mercy killing.

Justin Speier – Not sure if anyone’s on this train wreck, but you need to get off, you ain’t ‘Unbreakable.’

Ervin Santana – Missed this game because my girlfriend was administering an IV, but his final line surprises me less than his first month of stats, if that makes sense — sweet!

Dan Uggla – If he hits forty, he’s worth the average. Otherwise, I’m not a fan. BTW, missed this game because I needed to be rushed to the hospital.

Nick Blackburn – Returned from the hospital in time to see this game. Honestly, I’m not buying into this guy. He seems usable with the right match-ups, but not on any of my teams. Not right now. Now I’m going to down an aspirin, a Bloody Mary and a ‘lude and hope this hangover goes away. Remind me not to drink again.

Today, Verlander is buying the next round of Camels for Leyland and his fantasy baseball owners. If it wasn’t for a great catch by Joyce and Big Papi swinging on 3-0, Youk’s home run would’ve been of the grand slam variety. As I told a frequent commenter who lurks off the homepage, “Everything on (Verlander’s) charts is wrong. His walks up, fly balls up (metaphorically and literally), BABIP (showing he’s not just getting unlucky), etc. I’m worried, frankly. I would not trade for him, but I also don’t think you can trade him away. His value is too low.” What a pickle! So what do you do with Verlander? Well, you have to start sending out feelers to see what he can garner in a trade. If offers come back for Renteria and Sherrill, you pass and hope Verlander steps his game up. If you get offered Votto, you have to seriously consider it. Otherwise, you and Leyland may be talking with a tracheotomy soon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brett Myers – I’m officially worried about Myers. Maybe moving him to the bullpen last year wasn’t such a great idea (not that anyone besides Charlie Manual’s closest family actually thought it ever was a good idea). I wouldn’t drop him, but you can’t start him at this point.

Jo-Jo Reyes – I saw nothing that would tell me to drop him. Then again, I didn’t see much because he was pulled with a blister. No word if he misses his next start.

Carlos Villanueva – Two runs in the first should’ve been unearned. Bill Hall pulled a Ryan Braun and let a Hanley grounder get past him. Bad official scorer, bad. Then in the third inning, Braun pulled a Braun and slid for a blop single and turned into a double. Then Treanor hits the foul pole with a three run homer. I know, all of this is little consolation, but Villanueva wasn’t as bad as the line. On a separate but related note, I’m actually really annoyed with the Brewers in general. Okay, whether you asked or not…

Joe Dillon – Is Ned Yost stupid? Seriously, just because he sits Fielder he has to bat Dillon in Prince’s spot in the lineup? This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen (and I’ve seen some dumb things, remember I watch reality TV).  I mean, Dillon’s not an awful player, but Yost bats him third? Why not put names into a hat? This would be reason enough for me to fire a manager. I don’t even like Braun and I think it’s absolutely whatupid (whack/stupid). People in Milwaukee, put down your frozen custard and rise up! Dillon could go 4-for-3 (if that were possible) with six home runs and 30 RBIs in this game alone and it would be whatupid. /rant

Ryan Braun – .257 after an 0-for-5. Didn’t like him coming into the year, still don’t like him. And I like the Brewers. I like their announcers. I like Milwaukee. Great city. Good people. Okay, I’m ranting again, but this is really frustrating me. If I were the type to do emoticons, and if I knew the emoticon for frustrated, I would do it. Argh.

Edwin Jackson – I like Jackson to a certain extent. He was a big name prospect that floundered in the Dodgers organization for a while. He’s been pretty uneven this year, so unless your leagues deep I’d be careful.

Doug Davis – He’s been cleared to begin rehab. Good for Doug. Stay away in fantasy baseball.

Ryan Ludwick – Vincent aka The Queen’s Assassin hit two home runs yesterday. Whatever, I guess you don’t need that on your team. Now I must kill… the Queen.

Dioner Navarro – Okay, so I’m the only one talking about him. That’s reason to not pick him up? Seriously, what are you people doing? Are you looking at the fact he’s only owned on 2% of all teams and saying, “Grey’s effin’ bonkers. Nobody wants this guy. I’m grabbing Pudge.”  Is it because you don’t know how to pronounce his first name? Dioner (for lack of any nickname) hit a grand slam yesterday.

Shane Victorino – Last five games, batting .363, 8 runs, 2 steals. Werth, one start and that was against a lefty, which makes sense.

Nick Markakis – I’m going to touch on this in the next week or so, but in ESPN’s ‘new’ rankings they’ve moved both Markakis and Rios up to 21 and 23 respectively. Maybe they’ve crawled out of their caves over there in Bristol, Conn.

Miguel Tejada – I’ll be the first one to admit that I’m really hard on guys that are suspected of steroids, but Tejada I love. I can’t give you a reason why. I just thought you needed to know that.

Wilfredo Ledezma – He looked fine, until he was pulled after 63 pitches. The Braves announcers said he might have hurt himself going after a popup. (The Padres didn’t broadcast the game. Word on the street is they’re contemplating not showing the Padres when they’re batting either.) I couldn’t get confirmation on this injury, so, ya know, stay tuned. Or not. You do what you do.

Troy Percival – The most surprising thing to me is that he’s still the closer. Okay, the most surprising thing is these were his first earned runs all year.

Eugenio Velez – He’s 1 for his last 19 with two steals. He could end the year with more steals than hits. He could go 30/30. Thirty hits, thirty steals. On any other team, he’s platooning with Willie Mays Hayes.