Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jon Lester threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals yesterday (in case you were in a cave and didn’t hear). That goes to show you what getting rid of a locker room cancer can do for a team. Going forward, I see nothing remarkable from Lester. Just one of those things that happens. If you decide he needs to be on your team because you’re a sucker for feel-good stories, you should expect to take a hit on WHIP. It’s not just the walks, he gives up hits by the truckload, as well. Let someone else grab Lester and be the martyr. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Jake Peavy - Jake Peavy is going on the DL with a bad elbow. Padre fans moan, “Why couldn’t it have been ANY of our hitters….well, except A-Gonz.” Don’t panic on Peavy; he’s been on the DL before. You’re not going to get good value for him anyway.

Albert Pujols - Pujols hit 2 HRs in Petco. Impressive. Ryan Ludwick hit a HR and a double. Impressive and a bit more surprising. Cesar Izturis hit a homerun in Petco. Did they build another shorter fence for the game like they did in the Astrodome for the Bad News Bears?

Aramis Ramirez - If you can somehow trade a hot starter (Volquez!) for him, do it. Aram’s the quietest .300/35/100 guy in recent memory.

Geovany Soto - Soto’s done everything else, why wouldn’t he get an inside the park in under 17 seconds? Why? No reason, so he did.

Josh Hamilton - Now Josh Hamilton lets his bat say crack.

Joe Borowski - How anxious are the Indians for Blowrowski to return? The Indians said they want him to only throw one inning in the minors. I’m sure Borowski’s fantasy owners are just anxious.

Adam Dunn - Dunn hit another home run. If he hits in 8 straight, the Reds owner promised he’ll let Dunn bring his pet blue ox, Babe, into the clubhouse.

Frank Thomas - Frank Thomas hit 2 HRs. More amazingly, he made it around the bases twice.

Alex Rodriguez - Looks ready to return on Tuesday. Looks like Eric Karabell’s sister, Stephania Bell’s prediction that Arod will be out until the All-Star break might be a bit wrong.

Brett Myers - In The Bank, Punchy would’ve gave up at least three more runs against the Nats. If Myerly were a word, it would mean struggling.

Shawn Hill - He’s going to be skipped because of elbow soreness. I said he’d be very usable when pitching, I never said he’d stay healthy.

Max Scherzer - If Doug Davis were returning from a suspension because he had drank a quart of Popov and urinated in the Chase Field pool, then I’d say Scherzer might hold his rotation spot, but Davis is returning from cancer. I mean, c’mon, it’s The Big C. That’s some feel-good shizz. BTW, Big week for cancer survivors.

Howie Kendrick - Word on the Streets of Bobby Grichville, Kendrick is going to need at least another week.  I’m not a huge fan of him when he’s healthy and it’s beginning to seem like he may never be healthy.

Jay Bruce could be called up from the minors relatively soon. So I figured I should give you a breakdown, but then Baron Von Vulturewins, a regular commenter in the Razzpound and an all-around good guy (actually, he could be writing in from jail, I have no idea), did a great breakdown of Jay Bruce in the comments. So without further ado — the Baron on Jay Bruce (I edited some for breadth), “Pros: Jay Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball. He’s most often compared to Larry Walker — i.e. big power potential with speed and high avg., i.e. tasty. He’s currently at .366 AVG, 8 HR, 33 RBIs, 7 SB, .662 SLG in Triple-A. (And he started slow, so he’s been on an absolute tear of late.) Baseball Prospectus’ notoriously gloomy PECOTA projections put him at 29 HR this year (assuming a full season in the bigs, I’m guessing.) …All the indicators are there for Jay Bruce to succeed: bad team with several trade-bait veteran OFs, a local media clamoring to get this kid to the show — he’ll be playing in one of the NL’s premiere bandboxes, i.e. Cincy.

Cons: Two years ago, Alex Gordon was the CTPiB (consensus top etc.) and, well, we’ve seen that he hasn’t turned into “Boog Powell minus eighty pounds of custard” quite yet. (Some of us have watched this more closely, and more painfully, than others.) Cincy has a long, inglorious history of carrying one too many OFs, and driving fantasy owners insane with idiotic non-platoon OF switcheroos (see: Freel, Ryan). This is all compounded by the fact that Dusty Baker also has a history of mishandling/not trusting young players, though he seems to have put his faith in Joey Votto this year, which augurs (Word of the Day) well for Bruce.

Bottom line: Bruce could well go the way of Gordon ‘07, or he could just as easily go the way of Braun ‘07. Having missed out on the latter last year through pure Yahoo!-induced phenom fatigue (they hype everyone like they’re a young Babe Ruth, so by mid-May, you’re tuning it out) I don’t plan to miss out on it this year. So my money’s on Bruce. Given what you have to invest — i.e. nothing, save a bench spot for a few weeks.” Well said, Baron. I agree, if you have a bench spot, go for Bruce. I had Ian Stewart for a week on my bench and it didn’t cost me anything. Stewart didn’t get the call, so I dropped him. No harm, no foul. Rudy dropped Betancourt to pick up Bruce in our ten team friends’ league. If you have the spot, it makes sense to take a flier as they say in the biz (which biz that is, I’m not sure). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Ryan Braun - Now he’s just trying to make me look foolish.

Mike Napoli - The Italian-American put a hit out… of the park. Twice. If you have Pudge on your team, you’re just not trying hard enough. Or you’re Pudge’s cousin, and you promised your aunty.

Jake Peavy - Hopefully he misses just one start. But in reality, you kinda want him to miss as many starts as it’s going to take so he returns in good health. Unless he misses half a season, then you want to bang your head against the wall. Repeatedly. Until you draw blood.

Adam Dunn - The prevailing thought is he’s going to hit .240 and 40 home runs. I think he can get his average up to .270 and hit 40. He currently sits on .221 and 10 home runs. And .221 and 10 home runs asks Dunn to please stop sitting on them, so we’ll see.

Cliff Lee - For those holding onto him, I hope this was a blip. For others, who heeded my advice to trade him, this might be the beginning of the correction. Muahahaha…

Edinson Volquez - Strong outing, but he was wild. His history shows he can be very wild. He could hit a month or two spell where he’s unusable. Cust kayin’.

David Ortiz - There’s no reason to think you have to sell him now that he went deep. He’s going to do what he do.

Carlos Villanueva - You can’t start Chuck NewVillage at this point. Even in deep leagues.

Jeff Clement - Mariners decide the future is Jose Vidro. Mariners fans should decide to shit Bavasi’s house like Ronald Miller did in Can’t Buy Me Love.

Jeremy Guthrie - Was one of the pitchers I suggested you grabbed when Smoltz, Hill and Gallardo decided to wipe their asses on your fantasy team. He pitched well against a poor team. Would’ve been nice to see him strikeout a few more Nats. Actually, wouldn’t been nice to see him strikeout one Nat, but Wily Mo didn’t play, so there was that.

Kevin Slowey - Didn’t look as bad as his final line, but he has to cut back on home runs.

Edwin Jackson - At this point, he needs to be owned in every league.

Chris Perez - Not sure if he’s going to take over as the closer, but he should be owned if you’re utilizing middle men and potential closers.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Another pitcher I pegged as a fill-in for the Smoltz/Hill/Gallardo crapfecta. He looked extremely well and he has upside, but he said he’s pitching with a blister. That makes him iffy going forward.

Manny Acosta - Looks like Bobby Cox doesn’t have Acosta on his fantasy team. He brought Ohman, the lefty specialist, to start the ninth, which nullified the save chance for Acosta.

Justin Duchscherer - Looked usable, but he doesn’t seem like he can go deep enough in games for many wins.

Adrian Gonzalez - Seriously, the Padres would’ve lost some close games in the dead ball era. Gonzo is like the Padres “Home Run” Baker. (That’s the old-timey player who led the league with 12 home runs. Imagine playing fantasy baseball back in the 1910s. There would’ve been a ten way tie for home runs with one. Someone would’ve got three runs and two RBIs in a week and would’ve walked to victory in H2H. The top pitcher taken would’ve been Babe Ruth and when you heard he wasn’t going to pitch anymore, he would’ve been a steal in the late rounds. 1500 max innings pitched would’ve been reach by June. And you would have named your fantasy teams like My Team’s Fat Like Taft, Cy Young Is The Best Pitcher And Needs An Award, and A Hit Like Franz Ferdinand (and you wouldn’t have been talking about the band).

Ichiro Suzuki - Up to 20 steals. Wow, never a huge fan of Ichiro, but 20 steals already. Last year, he had 23 steals before the All-Star break. I think you should start exploring trade options if someone thinks he’s going to get to 60 steals. I mean, he might, but you already have a third of his steals if he does, so you’ve had your fill. Now stop being greedy.

J.J. Hardy - Hit his second home run of the season. Looks like he’s coming out of his season long slump.

I’m not going to debate anyone on Kazmir’s brilliance. He’s brilliant. I realize that. You realize that. We agree. See that. But he’s not going to make it through the season. Just as I told you about the Glass Chipper yesterday, I’m telling you the same shizz today. Do his numbers matter from yesterday’s game? Not in the least. If someone believes he’s turned the injury corner and trucking down healthy highway, trade Kazmir to them for a quality hitter. Don’t trade him for Jason Bartlett and a Teletubbie DVD. Be reasonable! This is not rocket science. This is fantasy baseball. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s verbiage (Word of the Day), go check out Greener’s new site, Fantasyphenoms.com. It’s all new and flashy. (Not flashy like Macromedia’s downloadable spyware crizz-ap. I mean, blingy and cool.) Their site is informational and… Well, check it out.

Ryan Howard - I begged everyone to go grab him for the last three weeks. I told you here and here in just the last week. (Hmm, maybe I should stop talking about him.) Anyway, now it’s too late.

Shane Victorino - The Hawaiian is flying.

Chad Billingsley - I’ve been accused of favoring NL pitchers. Yeah, so.

Chipper Jones - Glass Chipper didn’t start last night because of a tweaked groin. Maybe I jinxed him or maybe it’s the last 700 games of his career trends just coming true. You make the call.

Art Shamsky - Looks just like Tommy Lee Jones. You’re welcome, Mets fans.

Dmitri Young - The Meathook’s back and No-Jo is injured and will be out for 4-6 weeks. Nick Johnson is like that girl that wouldn’t sleep with you for, like, 6 months, then on your 6 month anniversary she told you to wait a few more months, then on your two year anniversary, she went on the DL. You wait, you wait and nothing. That’s Nick Johnson.

Adam LaRoche - He’s not an ApRil player or a high aveRage player or… Well, he has his dRawbacks, but he can hit 30 home runs.

Jay Bruce - Patterson might be benched, Griffey or Dunn might be moved soon. (Not that anyone can really move Dunn, except for Dunn. And he doesn’t move himself for anything less than sixteen hamburgers, a large fry and three apple pies.)

Santiago Casilla - Left the game with an apparent arm injury. You don’t need a middle reliever with an arm problem. Oh, well. He was having a nice year, but you gotta let him go.

Matt Joyce - Sure, he sounds like an 18th Century poet, but he should be platooned in against righties on all deep teams.

Masa Kobayashi - Will probably be the closer for the next two weeks.

Joe Borowski - Will probably be the closer by the end of the month. Way to run with the ball, Betancourt!

Ryan Franklin - Officially replaced Isringhausen for now. With Izzy going on the DL, which is code for get your shizz together with Dave Duncan.

Pedro Feliz - Peter Happy is streaky and he just hit a home run and another ball that should’ve been a home run, but was a single — don’t ask.

John Smoltz - He can be very valuable in the bullpen and can get saves. So if you need saves, stop reading. If you wanted Smoltz as your front line starter and don’t need a closer, then you should trade him quickly before he comes back just in case he has more arm problems. Right now, everyone’s thinking he can succeed as a closer as he did before. He might, but he’s 41 and it’s been a few seasons since the last time he pitched in the ninth and on consecutive days.

Chuck James - My name is Chuck James and I have a can’t-pitch-effectively problem.

Across all of my deeper leagues, invariably Chipper Jones is on one of the top teams. In the shallow leagues, Chipper is buoying teams above fifth place all by myself. Heard the Braves announcers talk about Chipper’s chances at .400. A question that would make more sense is, “What’s Chipper’s chance to get 400 at-bats?” I think he gets there, at-bats that is, not average. He’s a .309 career hitter, but his average has been steadily climbing as he gets older (which is a normal occurrence, batters just get better at knowing what they can and cannot hit). So he could hit .350. But unless you’re struggling with a lot of low average guys, average is, well, average. Chipper’s home runs have been declining. He hit 29 home runs last year, but 12 in April/May, so his early season outburst this season isn’t necessarily a sign of great things.  Of course, everyone’s main concern is his games played. I think you have a better chance of guessing what Joey from The Real World: Hollywood is going to say next than how many games Chipper is going to play. (Sober Joey, “I’m an alcoholic! And I love the albino stripper.” Drunk Joey, “I love everyone, but really love the albino stripper!” Drunker Joey, “I will rip off the albino stripper’s head and toss it into the eight foot aquarium!” Sober Joey, “I wasn’t like this when I came into this house!” Actually, now that I write it out, that’s much more predictable than Chipper Jones’s injury history. But I digress.) So going forward with Chipper, what did we learn from this exercise? The home runs are not going to get into the forties. He will miss some games. He won’t bat .400, but should get to 400 at-bats. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Claudio Vargas - Should be owned in all NL-Only leagues. (And all leagues that require you have a Vargas on your team. But then, Claudio Vargas was probably already on a team.)

Carlos Beltran - The Mets pitching staff and I often sat in the dugout sipping espresso, then afterwards would talk baseball. During batting practice, I discussed open and closed stances with Howard Johnson. We laughed about “high hard ones” and Carlos Beltran punched me in the nose.

Scott Feldman - Looked tremendous today, giving up only one earned run. He was about to be featured in the opening, until I realized he was facing the Mariners. Right now, he’s not that great looking forward. (I mean, he is capable of looking forward, just his stats may not be that good in the future.)

Jeff Clement - He’s one game away from qualifying at catcher in five game leagues. (That means he just caught his fourth game, Einstein.)

Gary Sheffield - He’s moving back to DH. The same DH spot that he said was the reason why he was hitting poorly. I think he’s hurting and just playing around with excuses. He shouldn’t be on any teams at this point.

Nick Johnson - He has a sore wrist. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Jim Edmonds - He will force Felix Pie back to Triple-A. Matt Murton better clean off his couch.

Manny Parra - Thank God for the Dodgers’s offense.

Guillermo Mota - Let’s try Torres.

Blake DeWitt - Has the highest average amongst rookies and he just hit his third home run.

Jeff Kent - You know how you can tell when a baseball player is suddenly old, when they look like Luis Gonzalez, but not as agile.

Brett Myers - I mentioned before that Brett Myers and I went to poetry night at The Turtleneck on Philly’s South Side. It was April. Brett had just thrown an eight K performance at the Bank. He said he could have struckout nine. I said it was a good outing, though not a great outing and that’s the way it was for future middle relievers. We laughed over this and Brett Myers punched me in the nose.

Ryan Howard - Barring injury, still looking at 40 home runs as he now sits on 8 after a home run yesterday.

Blaine Boyer - Got the Atlanta save. Just another member of the committee.

Ian Stewart - So far I’ve picked him up and dropped him three times in the last two weeks. (Yes, I am that annoying owner.) My thought process is, I pick him up and hold him for a couple of days. When I need another hitter for a short schedule day, I drop him. If I have him when he is called up, I’m golden. If I don’t have him, then chances are he’s on waivers and at least someone has to use their claim for him. Win-win, in my book. (BTW, that book is titled, “Annoying the Crap Out of Your Opponents When They Don’t Restrict the Amount of Adds and Drops, 7th Edition”)

Scott Downs - Just got his fifth save.

C.C. Sabathia - I think this is closer to the Sabathia you’re going to get this year. I also don’t have him on any teams. Just when you think I’m going right, I go left! Or maybe left-right!

John Lackey - Looked solid in his return with 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 4 Ks. Pretty far off in the pick the line game.

James Shields - Very solid game in the loss.

Robinson Cano - 4-for-4. His buy low time quickly evaporates as he’s batting .350 with two home runs in May.

Mike Mussina - I mentioned before that I was in St. Petersburg. It wasn’t the first time I had been to Florida. I was there many years ago with Mike Mussina. Mussina had just finished second in the Cy Young voting and we were competing in a Scrabble tournament. He had just pulled the tiles t-h-k-k-o-y-a and I said there was no way he could make a seven letter word from that. He said this is the first time I’ve had two Ks all year. We laughed over this and Mike Mussina punched me in the face.

Curtis Granderson looks like the same hitter he was last year. Just without the luck. He had a .391 BABIP last season. Whoa, Grey, those numbers scare me. Grab your blankie, and listen. I’m trying to educate you. Razzball Point Shares ranked Granderson 73rd overall. Baseball Prospectus put Granderson’s 2008 projections at 88/21/80/.267/15. They were admittedly being generous. They did not rank him in the top ten for outfielders. Adam Dunn is ranked tenth. Granderson’s speed and power will remain, but those home runs and steals may come at a price. If you could trade him for Vladimir Guerrero or even Corey Hart, I would do it. I don’t think you can get, say, Johan Santana. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Eric Gagne - Backne into the closer’s role. How far has he fallen? When he closed it out, Shouse was warming up in the pen just in case. I’m positive Gagne’ll blow another save by this time next week. If you have room, hold onto Torres or Mota.

Edinson Volquez - He fell into some trouble in the fifth and looked like he was getting frustrated even when he was getting some good calls by the ump. *I’m going to write this next part before the Reds go to bat in the fifth with Volquez due up third* Volquez is removed for a pinch hitter and finishes the game with 95 pitches thrown. A great start again from Volquez, but his temperament when he started to walk people in the fifth should be watched. *Okay, I’m going back to real time.* OF COURSE, HE’S BATTING IN THE BOTTOM OF THE FIFTH. Hey, Dusty, Mark Prior called, he wants his arm back. Luis Gonzalez just singled to leadoff the sixth. Why is Edinson starting an inning when he’s at 95 pitches and his top of the fifth was a very stressful inning? I hate Dusty. Well, it ended up okay, although Jacobs hit a long fly ball to the warning track to end the inning.

Jeff Keppinger - The knee bone is connected to the… Oops. Drop him in all leagues. People probably aren’t even reading this, unless it affects them, so I’m talking to the former Keppinger owners. I feel your pain, man! *manly pat on your shoulder* He was having a very solid MI season for NL-Only. I know, I had him. This injury kinda killed me. Who I’m looking at for replacing him: Vizquel, Cedeno, Hairston, Amezaga, Izturis and Bruntlett respectively. Not a noisemaker in the group.

Khalil Greene - Hit another home run. I have this theory that all mulatto children are attractive, so I’m going to assume Khalil doesn’t have any coffee in his cream. Just not sure where the name Khalil comes from.

Ryan Garko - The entire Tribe team is too talented to struggle offensively forever.

Matt Joyce - Took Greinke deep. He could be some cheap power.

Ronny Paulino - In NL-Only leagues, he’s getting a bulk of the starts because Doumit is headed to the DL.

Kevin Slowey - I’ve already mentioned how I’m not a huge fan of AL pitchers, but Slowey is one I like.

Jo-Jo Reyes - When Hill went down, I said Jo-Jo was a good possible replacement. He pitched better than his four earned runs. Howard hit him hard, but not much else. Also, no walks.

Jeremy Guthrie - Another starter I pegged to look at to replace Hill. He beat the Sox with solid Ks.

John Maine - Ya’ll know how I feel about Maine. I did rank him fifteenth overall for starting pitchers.

Zach Greinke - Labored a bit in this start, but made the big pitches when he had to. BTW, this was against the Tigers, the team that was pegged coming into the season as the ‘27 Yankees. Even though sportswriters say that shizz every year in March about at least three teams.

Edwin Jackson - Since we have on our throwback jerseys, the Yankees look like the ‘86 Angels minus the pitching. I can’t imagine Girardi is thrilled with this group. Jackson looked good again. He was a great prospect and he’s still very young (24). I think you absolutely have to give him a shot at this point. He should’ve got the win if it wasn’t for Percival, who surprisingly wasn’t on the ‘86 Angels. It just feels like it.

Jered Weaver - The one-hitter left Ozzie Guillen with no one to kiss.

Eddie Guardado - Those saves vultures out there might want to look here, especially after the poundings CJ Wilson took the last two times out. If he gets roughed up like that a couple more times, Ron Washington may open up the “Conventional Baseball Managing for Dummies” book and pitch a righty in the ninth.

Stephen Drew - Since my trade of Shawn Hill for Stephen Drew was turned down faster than Eckstein trying to buy beer, Drew’s gone 6/2/7/.333.