Fantasy Baseball Advice

I listened to Lisa Loeb’s “Stay” while considering the relevance of the Manny trade, then I thought, “Why on earth am I listening to Lisa Loeb?” Rather than viewing this trade like it’s the end of an era, Red Sox fans seem to be viewing this trade like it’s the end of an error. Sure, Manny was a handful, but he gave you a lot more than 500+ career home runs and career average over .310. He gave you something sorely missing in today’s game — flavor. The irony is the Sox got back a player who makes white bread seem like a bold choice for a sandwich. Am I the only one who sees the Red Sox and thinks, “Ellsbury, JD Drew, Bay, Youuuuuuk, Lowell, Beckett, Varitek… Did Jerry Remy suddenly become the only one besides Big Papi with any character?” It’s bad enough everywhere you turn it’s Subway, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Supercuts, Kinko’s, rinse and repeat. Now all our sports stars must be deviod of personality, too. What were you thinking as the seconds ticked down and it was official that you were the champions? First, I want to thank God. Without him, none of this is possible. Next, I wanna point out what a great job Coach did. He took us from last to first in three years. Next, I gotta point out what a great job all of my teammates did. They made me better. Finally, it’s thanks to these fans! You’re the best in the world! If that’s not bucking fullshit, I’ve never heard it. So when the Sox fans say good riddance to Manny, I say they’re all brainwashed by corporate America (and I lower cased corporate on purpose. As it should be.).

Since this is a fantasy baseball blog, first and foremost, I’ll go over the value changes for the Manny trade. Manny might get a slight hit on his value because he’ll no longer have The Green Mawnster to knock balls off of, but Manny’s a hitting savant and I expect him to make the proper adjustments. Also, this trade could be the kind of motivation Manny hasn’t had in almost four years. This does hurt a few other peripheral pieces in SoCal. Let’s do a basic math problem. If the Dodgers play 6 games a week and they have three outfielders, that means they have 18 possible outfield games. Now those 18 games need to be split between 5 outfielders (Ethier, Jones, Kemp, Pierre and Ramirez). So Manny and Kemp get 5 each, which means 10 outfield games. Now you have 8 outfield games to split up. I say Pierre and Jones get between 3 and 4, which relegates Ethier to 1 to 2 games per week. Drop Ethier. His (minimal) value has been zapped.

For Bay, let’s recollect what we saw last year while he battled through the worst slump of his career. Ground ball to short, ground ball to 2nd, ground ball to short and Bay falls into a mental slump where he’s fooled so bad he swings at some pitches while the ball is still in the pitcher’s hand. Bay will have a better lineup around him, he’ll have the The Green Monster to hit doubles off of and he’ll have the 2nd biggest media town breathing down his neck compared to Pittsburgh, which sports a town that forgot they had the Pirates for parts of ‘07 into ‘08. I hope Bay fails, but I’d say there’s only a 50/50 slot of it legitimately happening.

Now the two schmohawks that emerge from this trade with their value slightly knocked up (Hey, “slightly knocked up” sounds like that girl I went to high school with whose name I can’t remember) are Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche. First, Laroche gets reunited with a guy who has the same parents. (BTW, Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time two brothers with a capped letter in the middle of their last name will play together. Actually, Elias Sports Bureau didn’t say that, but it sounds like some nonsense they would say. Some things they have said recently around Elias Sports Bureau’s headquarters, “There’s no M & M’s in the snack machine for the first time since 1999,” “Leandro mowed our lawn on Tuesday for the first time since March,” and “Jimmy, in Accounting, has the worst halitosis of any Elias Sports Bureau employee ever.” But I digress.) So LaRoche only has to beat out Jose Bautista for playing time. Well, color me not worried. LaRoche hasn’t shown many signs in the majors, but he’s a top-level prospect that you should pick up in deep leagues.

Brandon Moss, the new Pirates outfielder, strikes me as the guy in a trade that no one cares about then ends up having lots of value. Or this could be complete hyperbole. Moss flashed some speed and power in the minors and never at the expense of his average. Now he’s not going to be an in-his-prime Bobby Abreu, but he profiles similarly to Andre Ethier. I know, yawn. But unlike Ethier, Moss may get his at-bats and in NL-only play that can help. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into today’s roundup, I just wanted to post Manny being Manny, make sure to watch until the 1:30 mark when Manny reenacts the play. If you don’t get a kick out of it, you’re dead on the inside.

The Rays - I knew they were stingy with their prospects, but I thought they would at least upgrade their bullpen. Nope.

Fausto Carmona - Bounced back from that razztastic start last time out against the Twins to throw 6 and 1/3 innings and to only give up 2 earned. Liked him a lot coming back from the DL and I think he can give you some quality starts moving forward.

Juan Rivera - HR yesterday. I’m pretty sure I’ve already said I’m never talking about him again. So this is your last heads up.

Jim Edmonds - 2 HRs. I almost yawned between writing the 2 and the HRs.

Rich Harden - 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. He’s given up three runs as a Cub and has K’d 39 in four starts. Well, la-di-da. This was still only his first win for the Cubs. So there.

Dave Bush - 7.1 IP, 6 ER. That whole ‘only starting Bush at home’ thing has worked out remarkably well. Almost as well as the whole ’starting Craig Counsell over Russell Branyan’ thing, but not nearly as well as batting Braun fifth. Not sure why Yost wants to get fired, but he’s obviously managing like he does.

Frank Thomas - Was activated from the DL. If you need home runs, I’d take a flier, but don’t drop anyone too valuable because The Big Hurt is aptly named.

Jim Thome - HR yesterday. As I said yesterday when Griffey was traded, Thome’s going to get his at-bats.

Shane Victorino - I was talking to Rudy about how some people bench Victorino or use him as a throw-in in trades and Rudy said an interesting thing to me, “Is Victorino really that different than Carl Crawford?” Things to make you say, “Hmm…”

Chone Figgins - Went 4-for-5 yesterday and almost .400 in the last seven games. As I told someone yesterday, Figgins can get hot and steal a ton of bases in a month or two. Steals is one category you can make up ground real fast. Saves is another.

Ryan Zimmerman - Left yesterday’s game with a hand injury. This could be a great thing for his owners, you might no longer have to delude yourself into thinking he’s valuable.

Khalil Greene - Reports claim Greene decided to place himself on the Disgraceful List when he punched a storage chest and fractured his hand. However, witnesses say the storage chest was starting Greene at SS all season and by all accounts the storage chest actually threw itself at Greene’s hand. Either way, Greene should be dropped in all leagues, even ten team leagues that only use Padres players. (BTW, in a ten team league that only uses Padres players, I think you have to draft Adrian Gonzalez first. Peavy’s great, but you can get pitching late.)

Todd Jones - Speaking of the Disgraceful List, Todd Jones hits the DL. Reason given by the Tigers for this move, “Well… Dur.”

Ken Griffey Jr. was traded to the Chicago White Sox for Danny Richar and Nick Masset. If that excites you, I got this videotaped Connect Four match between my two twelve-year-old cousins that will blow your mind. Griffey’s barely a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues at this point in his career. I’d go out on a a pretty sturdy limb and say he’s probably available in most mixed leagues, or should be. Does the move to the White Sox/Cellular Field boost his value? Not really. He could get hot and hit 6 to 8 HRs in a month, but his average is a bit of a drain. I’d prefer to take a flier on the struggling mightily Steven Pearce than Griffey cause here’s the thing… A fifth outfielder is a spot to embrace risk. There’s no reason to play it safe with your fifth outfielder (same goes for Utility, MI and last guys on the staff i.e. Gio Gonzalez, Santiago Casilla, Corpas, Kershaw, etc.). Playing it safe with the end pick guys on your team lands you in third place wondering how things could’ve been different. This is, of course, mixed league talk. In an AL-Only league, Griffey’s worth a waiver claim or some free agent bucks. He is, however, what he is, which is a fading superstar.

This trade does have some indirect fantasy baseball repercussions. Swisher and Konerko got the ‘ol “How’s Your Father?” this morning. The ‘ol “Put Up Or Shut Up.” The ‘ol “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” Frankly, those two bums should be made to platoon carrying the piss bucket. Neither is worth the energy it’s taking me to type this– Also, I don’t think Guillen will sit Thome and slot Griffey into DH. Thome’s hitting. Why penalize the guy that’s doing his job? He’s currently better than Griffey. All this could be moot the moment Guillen decides it’s a good idea to slot Griffey into centerfield and Griffey thinks he’s 24 again and pulls a hammy.

Over in the opening in the Reds outfield, there’s now a spot for Norris Hopper or Corey Patterson. If that excites you, I have a videotaped Connect Four match between two Civil War reenactors. If Corey gets hot, he could be good for a boatload of steals, but so far this year, he looks like a shell of a shell of his former self. Meanwhile, Hopper looked decent last year with some speed and average. But this year, to paraphrase Thing 1 and Thing 2 from Flavor of Love 3, Hopper has been exposed.

Pudge (<—this nickname wasn’t always ironic) was traded to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth, a cuddle boy if there ever was one. This moves yawnstipates me from a fantasy perspective. Farnsworth should not take over as closer, but that does not mean he won’t take over as closer. I think it’s still Rodney, with Zumaya and Farnsworth battling over holds. Did I take a flier on Farnsworth in any leagues? Of course, I did. I’m like Pookie from New Jack City and saves are my crack. It didn’t help anyone’s cause that Rodney blew a save last night. It pains me to say this, but I don’t think Farnsworth is as far out of the closer picture as he should be. Though the Tigers may still go after Street or another reliever. As for the Yankees, I-Rod is reunited with A-Rod. Now they just need to find a really manly looking woman and have a menage-a-trois. Pudge is better than The Oldest of the Catching Molina Brothers and Chad Moeller (though I will miss him on my Razzball team. Hopefully Josh Bard can pull his dead weight.). Pudge waived his no-trade clause for the opportunity to let the NY Media figure out ways to blame him for the Yankees inevitable early exit from the playoffs. I say if Pudge didn’t want to be in Detroit, Tigers fans should be glad to get rid of him. Pudge will probably bat towards the bottom of the Yankees lineup and do pretty much what he was doing for the Tigers. This does little to his value. Who this trade really affects fantasy-wise is Brandon Inge. Rudy became (very mildly) giddy to pickup Inge in one league. As he put it, “.240 and 20 HRs at 3rd is George Foster-ugly. That at catcher, I’ll take it and like it.” Well said, Rudy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Manny Ramirez - Traded to Marlins? Perhaps. Manny in Florida makes the NL East more fun. (And if you’re an AL fan, trust me, the NL East is already fun. Hanley, Wright, Howard, Utley, Reyes, Brian Schneider, the list goes on) The Sox supposedly want Bay. They nixed Kemp. This confuses me. Is Kemp too raw? Not enough power yet? The Sox have become the Yankees and they can’t wait longer than one winter for a player to fully mature? Can’t be, Manny still hasn’t matured. Either way, Manny anywhere is Manny being Manny. You can’t mess with his head cause he’s like Robert DeNiro in Awakenings. Manny, you’re wearing a pancake on your head. Yeah, so? As for Bay in Boston, this has the upside of a better lineup, but Bay seems like too much of a thinker and Boston could get in his head. I’m 50/50 on whether this is a boon or bust for Bay if it happens. You make the call!

Tim Hudson - Dr. Grisly Andrews says Hudson’s going on his Xmas card list under the category, “Tommy John recipients.” Drop Hudson, if you haven’t yet. Unless you’re stockpiling for 2010, when we will be taking flying cars to our fantasy baseball drafts. Mark my words!

Dioner Navarro - I figured since I mentioned Pudge and Inge, I may as well throw a Razz-bone to Dioner. It’s been a while since I’ve mentioned him. Regular readers now I loved him back in May when he first returned from the DL. Well, he’s still hitting .300, but, honestly, this is like a Keppinger .300. I think Yunel excited me more– Scratch that, I think Mini-Me’s sex tape excited me more. The only positive is Dioner is a poor man’s Mauer at an eighth of the price. Yawnstipating at best. I would consider an Inge look if you’re okay at average.

Kelly Shoppach - 2 HRs. If you’re keeping score at home. Shoppach 11 HRs, VMart 0. If I had access to the government’s time machine (and they have one!), then I’d go back in time to March 2008 and draft Shoppach as the first catcher off the board in every league just so I can see my leaguemates’ looks. (I’d still draft Rios in the third round. I’m a slacker like my father!)

Alexi Casilla - Done for the year. Just as he was on his way to the coveted 5/5 club. There’s always next year!

Huston Street - 1 ER and the loss. Somehow he’s still an Athletic and uninjured. Sometimes you roll snake eyes and sometimes you roll your eyes.

Bobby Abreu - 2 HRs and batting .400 since the All-Star break. Next year you’ll look at 2008’s stats which will be 20/20/.310 and you’ll have no idea how Abreu did that last year, so you’ll refuse to draft him again. Then next year, he’ll get 20/20/.310 and you’ll have no idea how he did that, so the following year… Do you see where this is going?

Carlos Pena - 1-for-4, HR. As I said in the rankings of top 100 for the 2nd half, Pena coul actually put up decent numbers. He hit 7 HRs in July. The most HRs for any month this season.

Rocco Baldelli - Set to come off the DL this weekend. However, last time he was due to return, he stubbed his toe on his DL history and broke his foot, or some shizz. Caveat emptor, for those in Latin America.

Adam Wainwright - Had a setback in his bullpen session and now won’t go on his rehab assignment until August. Guys, bad news, I don’t think we’re seeing Wainwright until September at the earliest and maybe not at all.  The mouth on the lefthand side of the screen says, “Contingency.” The mouth on the righthand side says, “Plans.”

Chad Billingsley - Shutout, 8 Ks. I said a while back that he was my very early 2009 Cy Young prediction. Unfortunately, now he’s gone and made himself look too good and he’s not going to be a bargain at all next year. Oh, well.

Cliff Lee - 5 IP, 6 ER. I’m under contractual obligation to only mention when he pitches poorly. Something I signed at the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston.

Shane Victorino - HR yesterday. Now has one more than Alexis Rios. I’m so keen-o on Shane Victorino…

Dan Uggla - HR yesterday. Member this dude? In May, he was so going to bat .400 and hit 50 HRs. Member that? Yeah, he hit .145 in July and .122 after the All-Star game. cough Told ya so. cough

Brandon Inge - Hit a HR. Pudge is gone and now you got a fatty for Inge.

Ben Francisco - 2 HRs and 4-for-7. Still batting third for the Indians. Yeah, the Indians collapsed this year. Hafner and VMart should be forced to work one of those winter fantasy camps where the Account Manager for your company goes to play ball with Mike Pagliarulo.

Manny Parra - 5.1 IP, 5 ER, Had a 3.05 Home ERA coming into today’s start. Then the Cubs happened.  I like Parra going forward, but you have to expect bumps. If you can’t handle bumps, a rookie pitcher is not the way to go.

Chad Gaudin - 1.54 ERA in almost 14 IP. As most of youse know, I’m a big believer in solid middle relievers balancing your ratios. Gaudin can help.

Wandy Rodriguez - 4.2 IP, 6 ER. It’s like Daniel Cabrera and Oliver Perez had a son and they named him Wandy.

Ray Durham - Ray Ray started second game in the row over Weeks. From the dugout, on his cellphone, Rickie Weeks, “Hey, whatcha doing?” Giambi, “Watching Sexson strikeout.” Weeks, “Tell me about it. If they wanted a lousy 2nd basemen, they had me!” Giambi, “I know! What, I wasn’t striking out enough for them? That can be fixed. The only thing I can’t do is tall. I guess that’s what they wanted!” Weeks, “Durham’s not even tall. I don’t get it.”

Looks like the Angels got someone new to carry Vlad’s crutches and Figgins’s machine-washable throw pillows he uses to bench press. Out with the young and in with the just a tad older and much better. Post All-Star Break Teixeira (PABST) is a thing of beauty in the 2nd half of the year and PABST’s about to bringing his beauty to all of the spoiled aristocrats behind the Orange Curtain. While Kotchman brings his “I can hit lefties if you start me against them” approach to Atlanta. PABST’s value might go a bit higher, because now he’ll be in the midst of a pennant race and eyes will be focused on him to produce. If that sounds like phooey, it is a bit. Listen, PABST is a 2nd half hitter that knows the AL and its pitchers and he can hit anywhere he goes. Just don’t think the Angels are the ‘27 Yankees. The Braves actually had a better OBP than the Angels and scored a few more runs. As for Kotchman, in the last three games he started he had three home runs and I was touting him as someone you should pick up. I even went as far as to give him the “I’m never talking about him again while all I do is talk about him” Seal of Approval. Now he’s on the Braves (see end of this roundup for the Braves current lineup). The Braves went from giving it the old college try four days ago to throwing in the towel two days ago. Kotchman doesn’t know NL pitchers, he falls into these funks where you think he’s got the mono again and he’s shown nothing but glimpses that would have a savvy fantasy-torian thinking Kotchman is nothing but a middle-class man’s Chad Tracy. Say it with me now, ugh. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tyler Yates - Grabow pitched the seventh, Bautista the eighth and Yates pitched the ninth for the save. Ding, ding, ding. We’ve got a winner! Yates is the closer. Johnny, tell him Tyler what he’s won! Maybe ten saves? Awesome!

Milton Bradley - Left yesterday’s game with a strained left quad. You can’t spell Bradley without DL.

Hank Blalock - Back to the DL. Well, that didn’t last long. I have no idea how some of these guys find someone to insure them.

Nelson Cruz - In Triple-A, 37/91/94/.348/24, at one point he hit 11 HRs in a 11 straight games. Here’s one man’s love for Cruz, which links to another man’s love for Cruz then another man’s then another… Follow that link and you’ll be *pinkie to mouth* cruisin’. (BTW, Cruz is available in Yahoo. Weird!)

Michael Young - Member how I said yesterday that he fractured a finger but because Young wanted to get 200 hits in every season so bad he would rush back in a week. Well, he was in yesterday’s starting lineup with a fractured finger. There’s no I in team, but there is a me. Reading between the lines, I don’t think a fractured finger can be good for swinging a bat. Yesterday, he went 0-for-4.

Ichiro Suzuki - With a first inning single, Ichiro reached 3,000 hits combined between Japan and the major leagues. He’s only 11 away from 3,000 singles.

Ben Sheets - 6 ER in 5 2/3, I hate to be the one to remind you of this, but he had a 5.68 ERA after the All-Star break last year. Sheets!

John Lackey - 9 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, only 2 hits. Pedroia broke up his no-hitter in the ninth. Damn you, Scrappy Doo!  Youuuuuuk took him deep in the ninth to ruin the shutout. Damn you, Scrappy Jew! Who’s on first? Scrappy Jew. On second? Scrappy Doo. The old Puerto Rican Dude? Third base! It writes itself.

Oliver Perez -6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks. I repeat, will the real Oliver Perez please stand up?

John Maine - Mild rotator cuff strain. Word in Queens is he’ll be fine, maybe only miss one start. I’d prefer he misses two and returns without reinjuring anything, but that’s just me.

Gil Meche - 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks. Sometime in June, Meche stepped up his game. That game, of course, being a decent fifth fantasy starter.

Chris Young - Lurch returns. 5 IP, 2 hits, 8 Ks. I don’t feel completely safe with Young, and this start was against the swing happy D-Backs, but you can’t argue with his results. He’ll go a bit further into the next game, pitch count-wise. BTW, Someone should make up a shirt for Young that says, “That Pujols Hit My Nose Hard.” Unless someone really, really clever already has.

Eugenio Velez/Manny Burris - Both on the bench while Aurilla and Vizquel start. Here’s my theory, Bochy likes his chewing tobacco brought from the clubhouse to him as quickly as possible.

J.J. Putz - 1 Blown save, 2 ER, 1 Harbinger (Word of the Day).

Matt Garza - 9 IP, 5 hits, 5 Ks. Eh, I guess you don’t need shutouts from guys you get off waivers.

Jonathan Broxton - Taking the closing job and running with it. Good, I’m actually glad about this even though Broxton seems like a D-Bag. You know why I don’t care? Cause all closers seem like D-Bags, except Mariano. And every closer, except Mariano, goes by his last name. Weird, but true. Think about it, would you join the army if you didn’t like the gravy and rice? Don’t think about it too long, that shizz will blow your mind. Seriously.

Jeff Samardzija - Came into a blow out and gave up a run. Doooode, he’s not a guy you need on your team. Let someone else get caught up in “the story.” BTW, that’s real D-bag shizz when you put quotes around something. “The story?” Who am I, Spencer Pratt? Or am I, Shia LaDouche?

Carlos Delgado - HR yesterday. Guy’s like a hundred and seventeen years old and still rocking out. I swore Delgado was done as of last year. I wish Beltran would drink some of the Delgatorado. (Actually, I don’t, because I don’t have Beltran on any team because I think he’s overrated, but he should be better than he has been. See how I started this about Delgado, but ended it about Beltran. That’s how it’s done, boyz!)

Brett Myers - On one hand, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 hits. On the other hand, the sting from a head smack.

Blanco/Escobar/Kotsay/Norton/Infante/Johnson/Francoeur and the incomparable Corky Miller - Your 2008 Atlanta Braves lineup!

Chris Carpenter returns tomorrow against the Braves to make his first start after last year’s Tommy John surgery. (BTW, if Tommy John hadn’t had the surgery that made him famous, he might not have missed two years in his prime and he might have won 300 games, which would’ve made him famous for what he would have wanted to be famous for. This is a better definition of irony than 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife. Why didn’t Alanis sing about Tommy John? Just another question to ponder as you take a crap. BTW II, if Tommy John didn’t have the surgery, he probably wouldn’t have even came close to 300 games won, so this might all be moot. But I digress.) So what kind of Carpenter predictions are we looking at for the rest of 2008? Could Carpenter return and win a Cy Young in the final two months of the season? Sure, if every other starting pitcher comes down with a Casey Kotchman case of mono. Carpenter, “Pucker up, Kotchman, I need you to kiss some people. Sloppy-like!” Since Carpenter returns from Tommy John surgery, it makes his predictions a bit easier to foresee than other possible injuries, like, say Jockular Sphincteritis.

Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery usually return 12-18 months after the surgery to yawnstipating results. Sometimes they return to gut-wrenching results, see Francisco Liriano’s April. And even when pitchers return after 12-18 months, they usually can’t be counted until the following year. But what about Carpenter specifically? He’s already been sidelined for an entire season (2003) and returned to solid results only 12 months later. While that was an arm injury, it was not Tommy John surgery. Not to mention, Carpenter is five years older now. So I see no reason why Carpenter avoids the same fate as most Tommy John recipients. Predictions for Carpenter - A couple of promising starts, a couple of awful starts.  Hope for beautiful music, but don’t be afraid to purge.