Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome to the 3rd annual stab at highlighting the riskiest pitcher propositions in fantasy baseball.  I say ‘stab’ because I can’t claim success just yet.  It’s easier to do that when you don’t compare your results against any baseline (like Mr. Verducci at SI.com).  The fact is that many pitchers will go on the DL and more than half will regress from the previous years (58% of pitchers who threw 2,700+ pitches saw their xFIP increase the following year between 2005-2010).wi

My focus is on identifying those who 1) are a favorite for a MLB rotation, 2) pitched in the majors last year anscrd had some level of success, and 3) are more likely to miss a considerable part of the season (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).  Using xFIP helps to separate a true decrease in performance from just bad luck.

Last year proved to be the safest season for starting pitchers in the last six years.  Only 8 pitchers qualified as a ‘dropoff’ and one of those is a technicality (Joba moving to the bullpen).  The other seven were:  Brett Anderson, Doug Davis, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Javier Vazquez.  Josh Beckett had 2,172 pitches and a +0.66 xFIP to barely escape both thresholds.  The counts for the previous 5 years (with roughly the same amount of qualified pitchers) is:  21, 28, 10, 17, and 19.  Since James ‘Dr. Freeze‘ Andrews hasn’t developed an instant Tommy John surgery, I am going to assume this is a statistical fluke and the ‘dropoff’ rate will stay at about 25% per year vs. 2010′s 11% (8 of 70).

With 2010′s 11% dropoff rate, my list of 20 risky pitchers should have been able to identify at least two of the pitchers.  Now, this is somewhat unfair since Marquis and Suppan were toast going into 2010 and I would’ve never picked them but, anyway, see below for the results.  I suppose I should get some credit for nailing three of my first four picks but I wish I added Javier Vazquez (he was on the 2009 list) and Jar-Jar Jurrjens (14.1% sliders in 2009).

Verdict	Number	Players
Dropoff	2 (10%)	#1 Brett Anderson (1,801 pitches) #4 Joba Chamberlain (1,170 pitches)
Dropoff but didn’t technically qualify	1 (5%)	#2 Ross Ohlendorf (1,771 pitches)
Incorrect But Saw Some Legit Dropoff	5 (25%)	#7 Chris Carpenter (+0.46 xFIP increase) #12 Jorge De La Rosa (2,026 pitches) #15 Joel Pineiro (2,306 pitches) #17 Scott Feldman (2,410 pitches, +0.39 xFIP) #18 Ricky Nolasco (2,476 pitches. +0.27 xFIP)
Close to 2009 Performance	9 (45%)	#3 Kevin Correia #5 Randy Wells #8 Jason Hammel #9 Jeff Niemann #10 Gavin Floyd #11 Ryan Dempster #13 Max Scherzer #14 Ricky Romero #19 Tommy Hanson
Made Me Look Bad	3 (15%)	#6 Adam Wainwright (procrastinator) #16 Edwin Jackson (-0.54 xFIP) #20 Josh Johnson (-0.25 xFIP, 2,988 pitches)

* The 11% dropoff rate I quoted is for pitchers with 2,700+ pitches the previous year.  I’ll dip below that threshold to find candidates.  Ohlendorf had 2,693 pitches in 2009.

My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness are elaborated on in this post.  In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:

• Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill.  A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season.  A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc.  Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
  • Criteria #1:  Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
  • Criteria #2:  Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)

• Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups (note all the sliders on this list).  Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success.  Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia).  But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.   (Note:  Surprisingly enough, there is no evidence that curve balls or cutters add any risk – e.g., pitchers who throw 15+% curve balls have a 23% dropoff rate, slightly below the league average.  But I still tread lightly with young pitchers who throw a lot of curveballs or sliders+curves)
  • Criteria #3:  Threw 15+% sliders

Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:

• wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
• FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA.  xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
• Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values.  See here for more info.  You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates through the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings button in the top menu.

One caveat before I move on to the picks.  ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’  Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 42% chance (based on 2004-2010) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS).  And there are other variables that I cannot account for – notably pitching mechanics (here are some interesting articles on it by SI.com’s Tom Verducci and Joe Lemire).  So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead.  Just try to avoid drafting more than one…

#1 – Brett Myers

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,145 -> 3,457 (+2,312)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  28%

A ‘Brett’ makes #1 on the list for the 2nd straight year – albeit one with less sex appeal in roto drafts.  This marks a return for Brett Myers who I had #4 on the 2009 list and he responded with an injury-filled 1,145 pitch year.  Last year, he was a workhorse for the Astros (3,457 pitches) and was one of the top 30 ‘best values’ based on his ADP.  But Myers threw 28% sliders and another 20% curveballs to reach that performance level.  Even worse, all his value is tied into those two pitchers as his fastball was worth -14.1 runs vs average as opposed to his slider (+14.7) and curveball (+13.2).  I’d steer clear of him in favor of similarly ranked but safer alternatives.  This is one of those cases where a pitcher treats his elbow like a close family member and that’s not a good thing.

#2 – Bud Norris

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  954 -> 2,726 (+1,772)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  33%

Look at that – two Astro pitchers at the top of the list.  It’s like Brian McNamee’s 2005 appointment book!  Bud Norris’ 4.92 ERA in 2010 doesn’t look great but his 9.25 K/9 IP does.  Combined with his xFIP of 4.12, Norris is the epitome of a promising late-round pitcher.  And while the pitch increase seems dramatic, he did throw 120 minor league IP in 2009.  The catch is that he’s a similar pitcher to Brett Myers.  His fastball has been below league average throughout his short career with his slider being his only above average pitch.  The list of second year pitchers since 2005 coming off  a 2,700 pitch season with 25+% sliders are: Bronson Arroyo (2005), Nate Robertson (2005), Casey Fossum (2006), Daniel Cabrera (2006), Josh Towers (2006), Ian Snell (2007), Armando Gallaraga (2009), Johnny Cueto (2009), Brett Anderson (2010), and Joba Chamberlain (2010).  The only one of those ten pitchers not to see an increase in xFIP is Joba Chamberlain and he was a reliever.  Eight of these 10 failed to reach 3,000 pitches the next year (Arroyo and Snell were the exceptions).  Houston, we may have a problem.

#3 – Francisco Liriano

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,318 -> 3,021 (+703)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  34%

The Liriano of 2006 finally reappeared last year and he had a fantastic season (3.06 xFIP, 9.4 K/9 IP) somewhat obscured by a rough BABIP (.331) that inflated his ERA to 3.62.  His fastball speed has found its way above 93 MPH after being at 90-91 MPH in 2009-2010.  It’s hard not to look at him and not think of Johan Santana.  That’s the problem, though.  He may be a diminutive Venezuelan lefty in a Minnesota Twin uniform with a similar repertoire as Johan (fastball, slider, changeup) and they may both enjoy a 7th inning arepa but that’s where the similarities end.  During his dominating prime (2004-2008), Johan had an above average fastball and an all-world changeup (averaged +20 wCH).  His slider was his third pitch, both in effectiveness and frequency.  As Santana’s fastball went from 94 MPH down to 89/90 MPH, his fastball and changeup both suffered and have turned him from a great to a good pitcher.  Liriano, on the other hand, depends on his slider for his relative greatness.  His fastball has been slightly below league average in his career (that’s discounting his -25 wFB in 2009) and his changeup has been only slightly above average.  His slider was a +23 runs in 2006 and +19 runs in 2010 and its effectiveness vs. the fastball/changeup explain why he throws it at such a high clip (37.6% in 2006, 33.8% in 2010).  Until Liriano proves his arm can handle back-to-back years with that high of a slider rate, I consider him very risky.  You can say I’m leery-a-no.

#4 – Anibal Sanchez

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,476 -> 3,234 (+1,758)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  25%

Anibal Sanchez posted his first full season with the Marlins in the 5th year since his 2006 debut.  To give some perspective, he was a Marlin rookie the same year as Hanley Ramirez (both were part of the Josh Beckett trade).  He was a solid 2010 sleeper (a year later that I predicted) with 13 wins, a 3.55 ERA (1.34 WHIP), and a solid 7.3 K/9 IP.  The red flag with Sanchez – besides his past injury history – is that he throws 25% sliders (his most effective pitch) and another 10% curveballs.  His fastball was about average last year so it’s possible that he can reduce his reliance on breaking balls but I would expect a drop in K-rate and xFIP if he does.

#5 – Ervin Santana

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,300 -> 3,561 (+1,261)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  37%

Ervin Santana and Brett Myers are like the Ervin Johnson and Larry Bird of slider-dependent pitchers who have not shown the magic to stitch together two healthy slider-heavy seasons in a row (Myers’ 2003-2006 run was before he started relying on a slider).  Santana’s 17 win 2010 season conjures up memories of 2008 until you see that his K-rate went down (8.8 to 6.8 per 9 IP) and his BB rate went up (1.9 to 3.0).  So the upside is not as high and he still throws a s**t-ton of sliders.  Oh, and his wFB was -13.6 while his wSL was +14.3.  Pass.

#6 – C.J. Wilson

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,299 -> 3,441 (+2,142)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  12%

Everyone who saw CJ Wilson’s successful 2010 season coming, please raise your hand.  While it’s difficult to find a pitcher who successfully converted to an SP after 5 years in relief (Wilson was a SP in the minors), there are a handful of cases where a reliever became a valuable SP contributor the next year:   Derek Lowe (2001) Adam Wainwright (2008), Justin Duchscherer (2008), Ryan Dempster (2009), Todd Wellemeyer (2009), and Brett Myers (2009).  Dempster fared okay his second year as a starter.  Wainwright had a finger issue.  Derek Lowe saw his ERA go up nearly two runs and his xFIP went up +0.44.  Wellemeyer collapsed (+0.72 xFIP).  Myers only managed 1,145 pitches.  Duchscherer didn’t pitch in the majors the next year.  Not a very good track record.  The fact Wilson threw 3,441 pitches in the regular season AND a full slate of playoff games can’t help this situation.  (see 2009 Cole Hamels).  CJ could end up standing for Clubhouse Jester this year.

#7 – Ian Kennedy

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  28 -> 3,170 (+3,142)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %:  5%

The ex-Yankee prospect finally delivered on his promise with a solid 3.80 ERA/1.201 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 IP while staying healthy (3,170 pitches, 190 IP) after an injury-plagued 2009.  Another positive is Kennedy’s balanced pitch mix where his league-average fastball (59% of pitches at -0.8 wFB) is complimented by an effective changeup (17% of pitches for a wCH of +16.4) and curveball (17% of pitches for a wCB of +6.3 runs).  If Kennedy can manage another full season like last year, I wouldn’t even consider him for future lists.  But 2nd year pitchers are risky propositions as they haven’t proven they could handle the year-over-year strain – this is especially true for a pitcher who virtually took the prior year off (23 IP in AAA/majors in 2009).  He should come at a cheap price in drafts so I wouldn’t worry about him too much – just try not to pair him with anyone else in the top 10.

#8 – Chris Carpenter

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,670-> 3,549 (+879)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 20%

Carpenter was #7 on last year’s list for the same reason he’s on the list again – I don’t trust any pitcher who throws over 40% breaking pitches (he also throw 27% curveballs).  Given Carpenter’s injury history, it’s incredulous that he threw 200 more pitches than his younger, also breaking pitch-obsessed teammate Adam Wainwright.  Carpenter’s regression from 2009 (ERA from 2.24 to 3.22, xFIP from 3.38 to 3.84) and his pedestrian K-rate (6.8 K/9) should mean he comes at a reduced price this year vs. in 2010.  But I wouldn’t draft him with Bea Arthur’s d**k…I mean, I wouldn’t screw him with any of my draft picks or auction dollars….aw, you know what I mean.

#9 – Phil Hughes

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,459-> 3,007 (+1,548)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

I apologize to Yankee fans who fear that Hughes’ presence on this list is a sign that we have been acquired by ESPN and are now Yankee-haters.  Not the case.  But read my commentary for CJ Wilson (#6 on the list) regarding the history of converted relievers having back-to-back healthy years.  It is almost as imposing as the Phil Hughes bar in Upper East Side New York that my friend Schultz loves so much.  I love Hughes’ maturity, his pitch repertoire (93 MPH fastball, cutter, curve, changeup), and his run support.  I’ll love him more in 2012 when – either way – he’ll be a less risky proposition.

#10 – Brian Duensing

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,322-> 1,885 (+563)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  N/A
Slider %: 20%

If you tell me that you have everything you want and you draft Duensing, well, you don’t get me nor my slightly obscure Beatles references.  I’m digging pretty deep for Duensing since he only threw 1,885 pitches as he was on the Twins-patented “start the season in relief, become an SP midway through the year” plan (see Santana 2003, Liriano 2006).  Duensing managed a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA in 130 IP last year – giving him the preseason lead for the 4th slot in the Twins starting rotation.  A cursory glance at Duensing’s advanced stats provides compelling reasons to avoid him on draft day (5.37 K/9, an xFIP of 4.10).  But that stat line isn’t far off from what you’d get from tolerable endgame playes like Pavano or Buehrle.  The reason he is on this list is he had to throw 20% sliders to achieve that unimpressive K-rate and it was his most valuable pitch (wSL of +14.3).  His minor league history shows a similarly unimpressive K rate so there is absolutely no margin for error with this guy.  Maybe he can be Buerhle 2.0 but it’s more likely he’ll be Done.0 at some point this season.

#11 – Brandon Morrow

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,254-> 2,523 (+1,269)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 15%

There are few things more attractive on draft day than a young pitcher with a crazy K rate (10.95 K/9!!!!) and an ADP greater than 100.  It’s so attractive that you can’t pass up a guy like Morrow if you get him at the right price.  That’s why you love him today…but will you love Brandon to-Morrow (it’s a pun and a lyrical reference!)?:  1) 2010 was his first full-season as an MLB SP, 2) He had pitched relief for much of the previous year, and 3) His slider is his most effective pitch and he throws it 15% of the time.  So draft him hoping he’s a lasting treasure but don’t be surprised if 2010 was just a moment of pleasure.

#12 – Mat Latos

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  869-> 2,965 (+2,096)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 23%

This one hurts more than Morrow.  Latos was awesome last year.  He had four pitches that were above average as far as runs allowed (Fastball, Slider, Curve, Change) with the Fastball/Slider combo ranking in the top 15 (respectively) amongst all starting pitchers.  His 2.92 ERA is mostly legit (3.36 xFIP) and his K-rate is above 1 K per inning (9.21 K/9).  Given he plays in Petco National Park, he is a potential top 10 pitcher for 2011.  But he hits all the dropoff criteria so, if you draft him, pair him with a safer option.

#13 – Jhoulys Chacin

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  211-> 2,304 (+2,093)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  N/A
Slider %: 14%

The player with the fragranciest name west of Aramis is an interesting case study.  His pitch count increase is misleading as he pitched 100 IP in AA the previous year and 35 AAA IP in 2010.  If pitch count isn’t an issue, why in the age of Ubaldo and the humidor would a Rockie pitcher with a K-rate above 1 per inning (9.04 K/9) make the list?  While Chacin may have a similar pitch mix to Ubaldo (both throw 25-30% breaking pitches), Chacin throws 4-5 MPH slower than Ubaldo (96 MPH fastball vs. 91 MPH fastball).  This is one of the reasons why Ubaldo’s fastball was the 2nd most valuable in baseball last year and Chacin’s was league average.  Colorado is a cruel stadium for pitchers depending on breaking pitches (see Darryl Kile).  Unless Chacin can learn to throw harder from Ubaldo or to throw more grounders from Aaron Cook, he’s a riskier play than you might otherwise think.

#14 – Jason Vargas

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,477-> 3,020 (+1,543)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 9%

Despite having the perfect name for a grade school bully (sounds like Scott Farkus), Vargas is like a young Leftosaurus.  His fastball averages 87 MPH and he throws a ton of changeups (29%) though it’s possible this percentage is inflated by miscategorization of his fastball.  Vargas found the perfect home in Seattle and is proof that just about any pitcher could manage a 4.00 ERA in Safeco.  While his 5.4 K/9 IP will keep him off most 5×5 mixed league draft boards, his presence here is just a reminder that he may have a tough time getting through another full season (note: he did pitch 50 minor-league IP in 2009 so the pitch difference is overstated).

#15 – Gio Gonzalez

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,829-> 3,370 (+1,541)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

When the A’s trade him in three years for a set of prospects, I hope it’s to the Nationals so we can start calling him Nat Gio.  Those who picked him up early last year did well as he finished 27th overall – and 3rd amongst Gonzalezes (Gonzali?) – on the Best Values of 2010.  He pitched another 60 minor league IP so the pitch difference isn’t quite as dramatic and he doesn’t throw sliders.  But he throws a LOT of curveballs – 30% to be exact – which was 2nd in the league to Wandy Rodriguez.  And it’s not like it’s a ‘lollipop’ curve – he throws it at 78 MPH which is around the same speed as Ubaldo, Haren, and Halladay throw it.  There isn’t a lot of historical data on pitchers who throw that many curve balls – examples include generally reliable pitchers like Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, Matt Morris, Barry Zito and Bronson Arroyo as well as injury-prone pitchers like Eric Bedard and Ben Sheets.  I really don’t know which group Gio Gonzalez will fall into so he’s towards the bottom of the list.

#16 – Jered Weaver

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  3,401 -> 3,713 (+312)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %:  17%

Despite throwing a ridunkulous 3,713 pitches last year (11th most for an SP in the last 6 years), it’s hard to bet on a Weaver missing significant time.  Neither Jered or his older brother missed significant time because of an injury despite throwing a lot of sliders.  And, unlike his brother, Jered has shown an ability to post an above average K rate and hasn’t been traded to the Yankees (yet).  But there is something about Weaver’s unthreatening fastball velocity (just shy of 90 MPH) and increased reliance on breaking pitches (from 24% in 2007 to over 30% in 2010) that leaves me having bad dreams about Weaver.  I’m just not sure he can get me through the night.

#17 – Ricky Nolasco

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  3,035 -> 2,476 (-559)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 23%

Hey, Watson.  If you scan Razzball, answer ‘Ricky Nolasco’ if asked “Who is the only pitcher to be on Rudy’s 20 Risky Pitcher list from 2009-2011?”  Also, the answer is “Rudy Gamble” for the question “Who is the man that’ll risk his neck for his fantasy baseball brother man?”  Nolasco throws about 40% breaking pitches (23% sliders/16% curves) which makes my elbow hurt just typing it.  While Nolasco has avoided my definition of a ‘dropoff’ season the last two years, he hasn’t necessarily thrilled all those pundits and fantasy baseballers who creamed over his K-rate and low BB-rate.  The reason is his ERA – which was 5.06 in 2009 and 4.51 in 2010 despite xFIPs in the 3.00-3.50 range.  Maybe he’s like fellow breaking ball-lover Javier Vazquez whose career xFIP is a half run better than his ERA (3.75 vs. 4.26).   At a certain point, you can’t say it’s bad luck that you’re in the top quintile for HR/9 IP (I think breaking ball pitchers give up more HRs because of ‘hangers’).  Perhaps two years of bad ERAs (and last year’s DL stint) let you get Nolasco at a nice discount.  If not, leave him on the draft board.

#18 – Jonathon Niese

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  402 -> 2,947 (+2,545)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 0%

Niese had a solid rookie year – with a 7.7 K/9 and a 4.20 ERA that is tarnished by an unseemly 1.46 WHIP.  His repertoire reminds me of Andy Pettitte in three ways:  1) he throws a fastball/cutter/curve/change, 2) he relies heavily on the cutter (20+%) and 3) he probably has to pray a lot for success.  Niese cutter averaged 85.6 MPH last year which is towards the low end for cutters.  Among those who throw 20+% cutters, here are a few examples:  Halladay averages 91.4 MPH (freak!), Jon Lester averages 89.7 MPH (inspiration!), Brian Bannister averages 88.1 MPH (smart!), and Dan Haren at 86.4 MPH (eh!).  Pettitte got by at 82-83 MPH last year but threw it faster in his prime.  So if Niese experiences any loss in velocity coming off his first full season, whatever effectiveness he had in 2010 will likely disappear.

#19 – Brett Anderson

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  2,816 -> 1,801 (-1,015)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  No
Slider %: 31.3%

Given Anderson was a ‘dropoff’ in 2010, he doesn’t technically qualify as a candidate for 2011.  But you are still going to draft him assuming he is going to give you near 200 IP so he is worth including in the list.  Brett Anderson was a pundit favorite going into last year but his slider rate scared me enough to give him the #1 risky pitcher spot.  After missing about a third of his starts last year, I think he still has residual hype from 2009 to fuel hype around this being a bounceback year.  I say this because no one loves bouncebacks more than Grey and he kept on IMing “He’s sexy.  Draft him!” during our last auction draft.   But take a look at his 2010 results.  In 112 IP, he had a 6.01 K/9 IP.  Blech.  His xFIP was 3.75 but his ERA was 2.80 thanks to an unsustainable strand rate a very low HR rate.  Yes, he’s got great control (1.76 BB/9) but that’s not enough to make him an ace.  This is with throwing 31.3% sliders which is 7th in the majors for pitchers above 110 IP (three above him are on this list:  Norris, Liriano, and Ervin Santana).  I’d maybe take a late round flier on him or bid $2 in a mixed league.  But I wouldn’t invest much more in him until he’s shown he can handle 200 IP with a slider rate that high.

#20 – Clay Buchholz

MLB Pitches 2009-2010:  1,521-> 2,810 (+1,289)
2010 was first year > 2,500 MLB Pitches:  Yes
Slider %: 19%

I don’t particularly hate Buchholz in 2010 despite the fact that he hits all three criteria and – based solely on his ESPN commercials and this photo - he gives off a Beckett-like douchiness.  But I just don’t like 2nd year starters who throw a number of breaking pitches (he also throws a curve 9% of the time).  His 17 wins and 2.33 ERA look awfully good but, like Anderson, he had very low HR and high strand rates.  His xFIP was 4.20 which, coupled with his 6.2 K/9 is just so-so.  He throws fast enough (94 MPH fastball) that he could take a step up in 2011 but I wouldn’t pay market price for him.

An optimist once said, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade.”  It was so inspiring that no one followed up with the relevant question, “Did life also give me sugar because, otherwise, this lemonade is going to taste like crap?”

There are plenty of lemons in baseball*.  Fantasy Razzball is the sugar that helps make them as satisfying as a cool, refreshing drink.

* There were three players whose last name was lemon – pitcher Bob Lemon and OFs Jim and Chet Lemon – but all three were good to very good players.   As was Hank Sauer.  Harry ‘Stinky’ Davis did stink though.

This post ushers in the 4th annual installment of Fantasy Razzball  - the game where the goal is to manage the  worst fantasy baseball team possible.  We have gone from one ‘blogger’ league in 2008 to 16 leagues in 2010.  At this rate of 16x growth every 2 years, we will have over a million leagues by 2016.   So it’s best to get in now while the competition isn’t as heavy.

League Rules

• 10 Team Leagues, MLB universe, uses Yahoo! position eligibility
• Weekly Roster Changes (leaves you time to lavish on your Daily Leagues)
• C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CI / MI / 5 OF / 9 P / 5 bench
• 1,250 innings cap.  No minimum IP.  No AB mins/maxes
• We’ll be commissioner of all leagues and will designate one person per league to help arrange a draft date that works for everyone.
• Leagues will be filled on a first come, first serve basis.  If you want to play in the same league with a couple friends, no problem.  Just submit the e-mail addresses at the same time.
• Each league will have four ‘dummy’ teams that merely serve to draft the top players.  This helps minimize the damage for anyone who misses the draft and forgot to update their draft list.
• 1 team per person.
• Collusion between teams is grounds for disqualification from winning the grand prize.
• Blogs/sports sites may have multiple participants but one team per writer.  These blogs will be noted in the standings and during periodic standings posts.  It is expected – but not required – for some quid pro quo mention of Razzball on your site.

• Hitter Stats
  • AB = +2
  • H = -3
  • R = -4
  • HR = -6
  • RBI =  -4
  • K = +2

• Pitcher Stats
  • IP =  -1
  • HR = +4
  • L = +8
  • K = -1
  • ER = +1.5
  • H+BB = +1

The point structure makes it so that about 2/3 of the league’s hitters as well as just about every pitcher has positive value.  So leaving a roster spot open or filled by a guy who plays once a week will hurt your team.

Grand Prize

An autographed baseball by Fantasy Razzball All-Star Neifi Perez, Grey Albright, and myself (Rudy Gamble).

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With our commenter leagues sign ups in full swing, we decided to look at different fantasy baseball league formats.  Most fantasy baseball league providers (inc. ESPN, Yahoo!, CBSSports.com) offer a number of league formats.  This post is a quick primer on how to find the league format that best fits you.

League Depth

The two biggest decisions when creating or joining a fantasy league are:  1) Drafting from MLB rosters vs. AL/NL-only and 2) Number of Teams.

There is no one right choice.  If you are playing with a group of friends/colleagues, the first thing you need to consider is their baseball knowledge and dedication level.  If you have a number of novices, skip past AL/NL only and go to MLB.  I’d suggest either a 10 or 12 team MLB league.  If your friends/colleagues are more advanced, I’d consider 14-16 team MLB leagues.  Of course, this depends on whether you can wrangle up enough people.  If you can’t, I’d generally stick with 10 or 12 team MLB over AL/NL-only unless everyone is really on board.  If you only have 8 teams, I would do AL/NL-only.

If you are looking to join a new league, you can be more selfish and think about your strengths and what you enjoy.  If you really enjoy combing the free agent wire and churning through your roster, your best bet is shallow leagues (10-12 MLB).  If your interest level peaks in March but you really like draft strategy and player valuation, go with a deeper league (14+ team MLB, 10-12 AL/NL-only).  Just realize that deeper leagues require both a broader knowledge of MLB players and the ability to find pleasure in owning mediocre to below average players.  Here’s a quick illustration of the projected ‘replacement 3B’ (e.g., best player not drafted and available as a free agent) in all the league formats (Runs/HR/RBI/SBs/AVG).  Note that AL-only is more shallow than NL-only because there are two less teams in the AL.

10-team MLB: Chase Headley (71/14/71/13/.263)
12-team MLB: Danny Valencia (62/12/69/5/.283)
14-team MLB:  Edwin Encarnacion (70/25/74/3/.246)
16-team MLB: Wilson Betemit (63/17/72/3/.263)
8-team NL:  Chipper Jones (65/15/65/4/.280)
8-team AL: Kevin Kouzmanoff (53/16/64/2/.252)
10-team NL: Brooks Conrad (33/8/33/4/.241)
10-team AL: Mark Teahen (38/7/34/4/.259)
12-team NL: Mat Gamel (26/7/30/2/.256)
12-team AL: Omar Vizquel (32/3/29/7/.244)*

* My AL-only team got so decimated with injuries that I had Vizquel starting for most of the 2nd half.  It’s sad when you do a Tiger Woods fist-pump for a 1-for-4 day with a run.

Daily vs. Weekly Roster Changes + Free Agency

The decision behind daily/weekly roster changes and how to handle Free Agency are inter-related.  If you are an active player, you likely want a Daily league where there is no cost (either actual $ or symbolic $) to picking up free agents.  You also want the ability to rotate in bench players if your starters have an off day.  I generally recommend this format for 10-12 team mixed leagues.

In deeper leagues, there are fewer impactful free agents.  Allowing free pickups can dramatically alter a season and can be very frustrating for those that played the deeper format in search of more strategy.  Most AL/NL-only leagues go with a fixed FAAB (Free Agency Acquisition Budget) that allow players to go to the highest bidder (vs. the quickest bidder).  This can be managed on a daily basis but tends to be easier to manage on a weekly basis.  I would recommend a weekly/FAAB approach for AL/NL-only leagues.  Depending on the league, you can still have weekly free agency with daily roster changes.  Most expert players prefer weekly roster changes vs. daily.

For 14-16 MLB leagues, you can go with either approach.  I would generally recommend daily pickups/roster changes unless you have a lot of novices (the weekly FAAB lets the slower teams catch up).

Roster Positions

While the various league providers let you adjust rosters, I suggest using either:  1) C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P or 2) The same as #1 except 2 catchers.

I prefer either of these formats as they tends to pull evenly across all major league positions.  Assuming your CI and MI are equally divided amongst 1B/3B and 2B/SS, this format nets out to the following per team (before you start filling up UTIL and Bench spots):  1.5 1B, 1.5 2B, 1.5 SS, 1.5 3B, 5 OF.  If you divided this against a real team’s starting lineup, you get 1.5 for all the infield spots and 1.66 for OF.  The one UTIL spot will generally pull from 1B and OF to drive those positions’ replacement level close to 2B/SS/3B.  (Note: Catchers are their own beast.  I don’t find much difference in 1 or 2 catcher leagues – I generally suggest sticking with one catcher for mixed league and two for AL/NL only (because that’s the default format for AL/NL-only).

The Yahoo! default format that has no CI/MI, 3 OF, and 2 UTIL is also proportional but I find it’s too shallow.  You’re basically losing 4 hitters per team (2 OF, CI, MI) and adding one UTIL.  This inflates the available free agents.  I would only suggest this if you have 14-16 teams but the players are very novice.

As for bench and DL, I recommend sticking with 3 bench and 1 DL for shallow leagues and 5-7 bench spots/1 DL for deeper leagues.  For deep leagues, it’s fun to use the bench for both necessary filler (e.g., a Brooks Conrad type that might give you something when your starter gets hurt) and prospect speculation (prospeculation?).  In shallow leagues, the free agency pool is so rich that deep benches only serve to frustrate active owners.  There is nothing worse than seeing potential free agent targets languishing on the bench of someone who checked out of the league.

Draft Type

The two primary draft formats are Snake (Team with #1 pick in 1st round has last pick in 2nd round and first pick again in 3rd round) and Auction.

The benefit of auction is that you could always get a certain player or players if you’re potentially willing to overbid.  You can, in effect, draft multiple first round picks although, since there’s a salary cap, this means you’re set for a top-heavy team – especially in deeper formats.  For those who prefer balance on their team, you have the opportunity to forgo expensive picks and build an extremely deep, well-rounded team.  In deeper formats, ‘well-rounded’ generally means that the majority of your players are set for 400+ ABs.  In shallower formats, it means that you were able to stock up on better starters that might have all been picked, say, before the 20th round.  There are a number of winning strategies for auction leagues but I’ll leave that for another post.

Much like with choosing the League Depth, this depends on the people in your league.  There is no reason to do auction with casual players.  Auctions are more difficult and lead to harsher penalties if they don’t show up to the draft (I personally love it when an expert skips a draft.  You can fill their roster up with a whole bunch of scrubs if you nominate marginal players that they value at more than $1).  I think auctions only start to make sense at 14-team MLB.  You want to get to the point where teams left with $1 per position have to take weak hitters/pitchers.

Scoring Format

There are two main scoring types:  Rotisserie and Points.  There are two scoring periods:  Head-to-Head (weekly) and Cumulative.

Rotisserie is the most common and my favorite.  I recommend this for the majority of leagues.

Points leagues are more fantasy footballesque.  I don’t like them because they do not penalize teams that are unbalanced.  You could draft a softball team and still do well because your extra power neutralizes your lack of speed.

The cumulative format (adding stats for the full year) is the default format for most rotisserie leagues and rewards the best player.  The disadvantage is that weaker teams may check out early.

Head-to-head might appeal to those that enjoy fantasy football and it’s a good idea for 12-team casual leagues as it allows the lesser players a chance for bragging rights (so maybe they will stay active a bit longer).  If you are a strong player, I think the randomness of week-to-week performance is more annoying than enjoyable.  There are weeks where you hit a ridiculous amount of HRs but you only get your one HR point and nothing carries over to the next week.  There is also the issue of ‘playoffs’ which – like in football – can turn a dream season to ruins because of a bad week.  If you are setting up a H2H league, you need to consider a weekly Games Started cap as a common practice is to continually churn through marginal pitchers to bulk up on Wins and Strikeouts.  I am not saying you have to place a GS cap – or that it has to be particularly constrictive – just that you have to consider it.

A head-to-head points league actually isn’t too bad for a casual league.  While points might not penalize unbalanced teams, it at least rewards your team more than 1 point if you have a massive week in power, speed, starting pitching, etc.

Keeper/Dynasty

If you are in a perennial league with friends/colleagues, the keeper format is a great idea – particularly for deeper leagues.  Generally, a team can keep 3-5 players.  It is recommended that there is an escalator in place to make sure that some players can’t hoard a player for eternity.  If you do a snake draft, you can allow someone to be kept at the round in which they were picked the previous year BUT, in future years, the round number would go up 5 rounds.  So if you snagged Jason Heyward last year in the 20th round, he will cost you a 1st round pick in 5 years.  If you do an auction draft, you can add $5 to the price every year until the player becomes cost-prohibitive and they have to release the player.

The great thing about keepers is that it can mirror the dynamics of a real pennant race.  Contending teams trade prospects to losing teams in exchange for veterans that can help now.  While this is great in theory, just realize this can also lead to extremely lopsided trades that might bruise leaguemates feelings (e.g., here are all the good players on my team for 1-2 prospects because my team is in 10th and what do i have to lose?).  If you are going to do a keeper league, you may want to find an arbiter who can come up with a fair way to determine if trades are fair.

Positional weighting (aka ‘positional scarcity’ for fearmongers or fearophiles) in fantasy baseball is one of the most discussed and least understood variables when it comes to ranking players.  I have heard arguments ranging the whole gamut on how much a player’s value is impacted by their position – everything from ‘it means nothing’ to ‘it means everything.’

In my yearly review of my Point Shares methodology, I decided to test the underlying assumptions on positional weighting.  One advantage and burden of using a ‘methodology’ is that you have to make decisions on each variable.  If you rely on gut feel for player valuation, all variables are just blended together into one experience-honed calculator.  So you have both the benefit of never fretting about your underlying assumptions as well as the detriment of never testing and refining them.

For Point Shares, I’ve historically weighted hitters 75% vs. position and 25% vs. overall regardless of league format – e.g., a player’s value is based 75% on how he compares with the average drafted hitter at his position and 25% on how he compares with the average drafted hitter (regardless of position).  I hadn’t revisited it in recent years so it felt like an assumption worth testing.

To test it, I ran Point Shares against my projections for a 12-team mixed league (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) using the following weights (positional/overall):  0/100, 25/75, 50/50, 75/25, 100/0.  I then averaged the differences in projected dollar value, adjusting it so 1B became the base (1B=0).  To translate the dollar figures into rounds, you can assume +/- $4 is a round in Rounds 1-3, +/- $3 a round in Round 4, and +/- $1 a round in Rounds 5-22.

For example, a 75/25 weight using Point Shares would value a player $10 more if he was a Catcher vs. a 1B, $7 more for a Catcher vs. an OF (10.1-3.2), etc.  From a snake draft perspective, that’s saying a top catcher (say Posey or Mauer) is 2-3 rounds more valuable than a 1B/OF with the same projected stats.  See below for the full chart:

Avg $ Adjustment Based on Position For 12 Team MLB
Pos	0/100	25/75	50/50	75/25	100/0
C*	0	+3.4	+6.7	+10.1	+13.4
1B	0	0	0	0	0
2B	0	+1.3	+2.7	+4.0	+5.4
SS	0	+2.5	+4.9	+7.4	+9.8
3B	0	+1.0	+2.0	+3.0	+4.0
OF	0	+1.1	+2.1	+3.2	+4.3
DH	0	-0.6	-1.3	-1.9	-2.6

* For a 2 Catcher league, the catcher adjustment would nearly double (75/25 goes to +19)

Armed with this data, Grey and I tested our ‘gut feel’ across a number of different scenarios – e.g., how much more is Youkilis worth as a 3B vs. 1B?, how much less is Posey worth if he just had 1B eligibility?  Before running the data, I assumed 75/25 would prove too high of an adjustment.  But after going over various mixed-league scenarios, we found that the 75/25 adjustments were most in line with our drafting experience.  There were about as many cases that we exceeded the 75/25 results as cases where we fell below it.  We generally agree that Youkilis is worth about $3 more (or an early round) as a 3B vs. 1B, Posey is worth about $10 more (potentially from 15th round to 5th round) as a catcher vs. a 1B, etc..  (Note:  For DH, I multiply the average 1B’s counting stats by 5%)

I tested this across 10-16 team mixed leagues and found that the 75/25 proved best across each format.  The dollar differences vary slightly but generally hold up since even 16 team leagues never really suffer from ‘scarcity.’  There are always free agents available who are clearing a projected 400+ ABs.  The point where ‘scarcity’ plays a big role is AL/NL-only when you run out of starting players and delve into players at 300 and less ABs.

This scarcity is felt across all positions in AL/NL-only and it was therefore not surprising when I found out how little positional weights matter in these formats.  There were only two real impacts of the positional weights when I tested the 0/100, 25/75, 50/50, 75/25, 100/0 scenarios:  1) 1Bs lose about $1 every 25% increment of positional value (so Votto would be worth about $47 with no positional weighting and about $42-$43 with 100% positional weighting) and 2) Catcher values changes dramatically.  In the end, I decided to switch this to 25/75 as I’ve found that 1B projections are a lot more reliable than Catcher projections.   In addition, even with just a 25% positional weight, Posey is valued at $36 for 12-team NL only with 2 catchers.  This is already more than he’ll likely go for in most leagues (he went at $29 in our recent CBS) whereas most 1Bs seem to go closer to the 25% weight vs. 75% weight.

Please leave comments if you have a point of view regarding the ideal positional weighting.  Does the 75/25 weight seem too much/little?  If you prefer a different split, why?

The first run of our 2011 Point Shares for 10 and 12 MLB leagues are now available there and via the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings menu at the top of the page.  The player rate projections are a composite of Marcel projections, FanGraphs fan projections and CAIRO (created/managed by SG at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog – can be downloaded here).  The playing time estimates (AB/IP) are courtesy of Fantistics – a paid projection service that’s done very well in Tom Tango’s Forecaster Challenge (they beat me in 2010!). I’ve also changed some stats – particularly Saves – where I felt the projections were too bullish.

Once ZIPS projections are available (ETA late Feb/early March), I will incorporate them as well.  By then, I should have the following league formats posted (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9P unless otherwise noted):

10/12/14/16-team mixed league
8/10/12 team AL (2 catchers)
8/10/12 team NL (2 catchers)

For those new to Razzball and/or ‘Point Shares,’ please see last year’s post that explains it in detail. The quick definition is that a Point Share represents the value in fantasy baseball standings points of a player compared to the average drafted player at his position (with some consideration taken into account for the value of the player against the average hitter or pitcher).  This is estimated for each player stat and then added up for the rankings.  For example, Ichiro is estimated to be worth 1.2 points more than the average drafted OF. His Runs (+0.4), SB (+1.6), and AVG (+1.8) drive his value. But they come at a price in terms of HR (-1.4) and RBI (-1.2). The theoretical max for a player in one category would be the # of teams divided by 2 and minus 0.5. So a 12-team league’s ‘average’ team would get 6.5 in each category and, thus, I would need +5.5 to win a category (the highest Point Shares in single category right now is Jacoby Ellsbury’s +3.3 in SB).

Three notes:

1) This should not be used as a draft sheet. The goal of drafting is to get the most value and balance out of a draft. Yes, pitchers are generally undervalued in both snake and auction drafts. But drafting Halladay in the 1st round isn’t getting great value (it’s fair value). I’d aim to draft both pitchers (and catchers for that matter) anywhere from 1 ½ – 2 rounds after their value would suggest. So Halladay in the end of the 2nd round would be great value. Also, note that all Point Shares base a player’s worth on their value to an average team. Once you draft a Halladay, your pitching staff starts skewing above average (assuming you draft average pitchers after that). So, drafting F-Her in the next round is worth less to your team than the other teams.

To help on auction drafts, I’ve added a second dollar amount that weighs up hitter values and weighs down pitcher values to reflect a $180 hitter/$80 pitcher split.  I believe that’s more in line with traditional auction draft bidding.

2) Position scarcity is taken into account with Point Shares. For multi-position players, I assign them to the scarcest position (note: I assigned Kevin Youkilis to 3B since he’ll have eligibility after 1-2 weeks).  The progression is C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.  Here’s a weighting of positions for 2011 12-team league based on the initial projections I’ve compiled: 1B -100, OF-95, 2B-93, 3B-92, SS-86, C-74.  One thing that’s immediately clear is that the top-tier of shortstops is really shallow. H-Ram, Tulo, and Reyes are in the top 40 for Point Shares and the next SS is Jeter at #99. Assuming you don’t take H-Ram or Tulo over Pujols, I don’t think you can draft those two players too high (H-Ram is #2 and Tulo #5 in position player Point Shares). There’s a case for Votto, Miggy, and Braun ahead of Tulo but it’s close. What I don’t recommend, though, is overpaying on Reyes (late 2nd round would be the earliest) or anyone else. I’ve seen drafts where Jeter is picked in the 4th round. That’s a sucker pick.   When a position is so shallow – and there is little differentiation in the later tiers – it’s your cue to punt the category and stock up on other positions.  More bluntly, in a shallow position, either take a top guy at close to his value or punt.   Worst case, you stream players until you find a keeper.  Remember that EVERYONE will be fishing for free agent OFs, SPs, and RPs once the season starts.  The competition for 2B/SS/3B FA’s isn’t as high.

3) Player position eligibility is based on 20 games in the previous year.  Some online services might use 10 games as the eligibility threshold.  You should check your league rules.  Generally, a  player’s value only increases if his additional position is further to the left of the C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH progression (e.g., Sandoval adding 1B eligibility to his 3B means very little.  But a player adding C eligibility besides 1B is a bonus.)