Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

This week, the best third basemen are identified and elected.

Despite having well over 1,000 of his games ineligible since they came prior to the ‘fantasy era’, Mike Schmidt is inducted as the games premier third basemen amassing a final FBHOF score of 70.5 and a Peak Score of 67.7, both tops at his position.

The strike shortened 1981 season was his trademark campaign, one in which he scored 18.8 FBHOF points, the second best total for any batter of all time.  In just 102 games Schmidt batted .316, 78 R, 31 HR, 91 RBI en route to the number one overall ranking, far ahead of the second place finisher, Andre Dawson.  In his previous season the lifetime Philly finished 1st at his position (2nd overall), a feat he duplicated again in 1984.

He recorded two other great seasons in 1986 (35 HR, 108 R) and 1983 (36 HR, 106 RBI), which gives him a 5-year peak ranking of 1.4 at his position.  This simply means that on average, he finished between the best and second best at his position when analyzing his 5 best seasons.  He averaged .280, 108 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB during the span.

In the eight seasons between 1980 and 1987, Schmidt reached the 30-HR milestone each year, topping out at 48 in 1981.  He also drove in at least 85 runners each year, and scored the same in seven of those eight seasons.  Early in the decade Schmidt also stole double digit bases which increased his value considerably.  In these prime years he ranked 1st overall in home runs (295, second best was Dale Murphy at 264) and RBI (839), and 5th in Runs Scored.  All in all, he was the best fantasy batter of the period, and not just the best fantasy third basemen.

As good as Schmidt was, our next inductee Paul Molitor was more valuable over the long-haul, out distancing Schmidt by almost 50% in career score, 140.6 to 94.8.  Of course, a lot of this has to do with Schmidt’s 1970’s seasons not counting, but plenty had to do with Molitor himself.  He too lost seasons to the 70s’ (one very good, one not) but more importantly, Molitor finished 1st at his position 5 times, an accomplishment only bettered by Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

Molitor also has 4 additional seasons where he was ranked in the top 5, giving him nine total, one more than Schmidt has to his credit.  So, why isn’t Molitor rated higher?  Peak value.  Molitor best season was 1982, take a look:  .302 AVG, 136 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 41 SB.  This was good enough for 13.1 FBHOF points, which is well off the pace of Schmidt’s best season.  The same for their second best seasons, Schmidt outpaces him by a healthy margin, 14.5 to 13.0.  Lining them up best to worst:

    Molitor    Schmidt

1st   13.1      18.8

2nd   13.0      14.5

3rd   12.6      11.7

4th   11.8      11.6

5th   11.8      11.1

It’s clear that Schmidt was more valuable during this 5 year period, significantly outdistancing Molitor twice.

Positional eligibility impacts the scoring as well.  Three of Molitor’s top five scores happen to be seasons where Molitor was playing First Base (from 1992 -1993).  In fact, aside from 3B/1B, Molitor also had two seasons where he was eligible at second base and five where he was eligible only as a DH.  In all though, he had more seasons at third than any other and therefore is considered a third basemen for induction purposes.

At his best, Molitor delivered his fantasy owners a brilliant combination of speed, power, and high averages.  Remembering the relatively low run scoring environment he was active in, his average peak year batting line was:  .325, 119 R, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 32 SB.

Our last inductee for the hot corner helps speak to how baseball has changed through the years.   In 1999 Chipper Jones had the following line:  .319 AVG, 116 R, 45 HR, 110 RBI, 25 SB.  Despite these monstrous numbers he wasn’t the most valuable fantasy batter during year, as that distinction went to Larry Walker.  Nor was he the 2nd or 3rd most valuable thanks to superb seasons from Jeff Bagwell and Manny Ramirez.  Jones had to ‘settle’ for 4th because the era in which he played in favored hitters to a extensive degree, so much so that in 1999 the NL average OPS was .771, which at the time was the 3rd highest on record since 1900.

This has been the story of Jones career.  In ’98 he went .313, 123 R, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 16 SB but was only ranked 8th overall.  In 2000 he had virtually the same season, but dropped to 10th.  Jones has never been ranked better than 4th overall in any one season, a fact that reduces his value when comparing him to Schmidt and Molitor.  In his favor however, is that among his peers he had no equal in his prime years of 1996-2001.  During this six-year stretch Jones is ranked, on average, more than four and a half times better as the next best third basemen.  There were 33 players eligible at third base in this time frame, below are the average rankings for the top 5:

1.5 – Chipper Jones
7.0 – Jeff Cirillo (!)
8.6 – Dean Palmer
10.5 – Todd Zeile
13.8 – Scott Rolen

No player bested him twice in the years he wasn’t ranked number at the position.  He truly was in a class all by himself.  His 61.2 FBHOF point total and 61.2 Peak Score is 3rd best of his peers, while his Career Score is 2nd best.

A few players missed the cut:
- George Brett – The Kansas City Hall of Famer is one great season away from election.  His top 5 seasons listed by rank among third basemen are 1, 2, 2, 4, 5 with the last two also being outside of the top 20-overall.  Can we elect a player who didn’t have 5 top 20 seasons when his FBHOF peers all have?  It’s a shame, but he doesn’t quite make the cut.  (Brett also lost 6 seasons to the 70’s and would have easily been elected had these years been considered).  One possible way to induct him is to give the guy a 3 point bonus for his anger management issues.

- Wade Boggs – Another Hall of Famer misses the cut as well, which in all likelihood will be a common theme at FBHOF.  Boggs isn’t all that close to warranting a vote in, and while I don’t want to call any immortal one dimensional, that’s just what Boggs was for most of his career.  He reached the 80 RBI mark just once, had double digit home runs just twice, and never stole more than 3 bases in a season.  Even his hallmark 1987 campaign (.363, 108/24/89) came in a huge offensive season, making it just 20th best among batters.

- Pedro Guerrero – Surprisingly, to me anyway, Guerrero is in the same exact boat as Brett, just 1 season away from serious consideration.

- Matt Williams – Has more 10 point seasons than either Brett or Guerrero, but never had a truly elite season.

- Scott Rolen/Bobby Bonilla/Vinny Castilla – Each had two or three great years; five are required unless one of those years happens to be an all time great.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

First up are the second basemen inductees.

Enshrining the correct second basemen into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is perhaps the most difficult set of selections we’ll have to make. As a general rule of thumb, any player that accumulates 65 or more FBHOF points is virtually guaranteed to be inducted. Think of it this way – any player who averages 13 points during their peak fives seasons is elected. Alternatively, if the peak score averages is less, the player can still be elected if they accumulate a large number of “fantasy worthy” seasons, each of which provides a 1% bonus to the core score.

Only two second basemen have accumulated the magical 65 since 1980 – Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar. Craig Biggio comes awfully close at 64.6, followed by Alfonso Soriano at 61.2 before it drops off precipitously after that. Is that it? Can that be all of the great second basemen over the past 27 years?

Jeff Kent comes to mind, but he only finished as the best second bagger once, in 2000 when he hit 33 HR, drove in 125, and batted .334. He recorded three other Top-2 finishes but one of those years was 2004 when he batted .289, with 27 HR, 96 R, and 107 RBI. Good numbers for sure, but is that worthy of hall induction as a 4th best year? I decided that it did not and his FBHOF score of 8.7 that year back this up. He was good for a middle infielder, but the middle infield crop was weak as a whole, lessening the accomplishment.

Julio Franco scores relatively high as well, almost entirely due to his 1988 and 1991 campaigns where he finished 1st among his peers. His peak value is ruined though, since as his 5th best season was 1997 when he had an unspectacular finish of 18th at second, and worse yet, 167th overall.

Last one before getting back to the Hall of Famers. Chuck Knoblauch is also on the bubble, finishing as a top-4 second basemen four times, and placed 6th an additional two. That is a solid 6 season stretch, one in which he averaged 9.3 FBHOF per season, which is within the range of possibility’s for election when considered longevity. But Knoblauch was finished in 2001 and out of baseball after the 2002 season, before he turned 34.

Sandberg was the no-brainer choice for induction. His FBHOF score is best of any second basement, and best of any middle infielder not nicknamed A-Rod. Ditto his Peak Score, and his Career Total tops all second basemen as well. “Ryno” is simply the best fantasy second basemen we’ve seen. The life-long Cub batted 2nd or 3rd throughout most of his career, recording power and speed numbers not common for any infield position, let alone second base. He has six seasons of 25+ home runs under his belt and seven seasons of 25+ stolen bases. Additionally, Sandberg scored 100 or more runs seven times and reached the 80 RBI milestone six times, achieving 100 on the nose twice.

1985 and 1990 where his top two seasons, with the latter being the best ever for a second basemen; ’85 was great as well, registering as the 3rd best ever:

1990 – .306 AVG, 116 R, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 25 SB
1985 – .305 AVG, 113 R, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 54 SB

Finally, it also needs to be pointed out that he finished best at his position 5 times and in the top-5 and additional seven times, giving him 12 very good seasons. In fact, in only the strike shortened 1994 season did he fail to be considered a fantasy worthy second basemen.

Next up is Alomar who was an all around great player for many, many years. Getting the specifics out of the way – among second basemen, he’s second to Sandberg in FBHOF Points, Peak Score, and Career Score. He does top Sandberg in one area though – his seven seasons of scoring at least 10.0 FBHOF points is best in class. Additionally, he’s recorded the 4th and 5th best seasons ever at the position.

What kind of a fantasy player was Alomar? He is the prototype for owners looking for it all: 11 seasons of batting .295 or higher, 9 seasons of double digit home runs, he scored 100 or more runs 6 times (and reached 80 another 5), had five 90+ RBI campaigns, and stole at least 20 bases in 10 different seasons (swiping 49+ on three occasions).

This certainly sounds as if Alomar was perhaps a bit better than Sandberg, but we need to adjust for context. Sandberg’s numbers made him 1st overall (not just for second base) two times (1984, 1990) and he also ranked 3rd overall in 1985. Alomar never finished first and has only one top-5 finish in his career, a truly wonderful 1993 season that saw him place 2nd overall (.326 AVG, 109 R, 17 HR, 93 RBI, 55 SB).

Our last inductee is Biggio, who also recorded several good seasons as a catcher, which counts towards his totals listed here. Consider second base his primary position, but players are elected on their overall value. Biggio finished the best at his position three times (more than Alomar, less than Sandberg). He also has two seconds – one of them behind the plate.

The problem, if you can call it a problem and have him still enshrined, is that he is one season short of a clear cut induction. His top FBHOF scores: 13.2, 13.1, 13.1, 10.2, 8.1. That last is short of almost all other inductees and is dragged down by the fact it was when he was catching. His 1989 season was great for a catcher of the time (12.9 FBHOF points when looking solely among catchers) but overall that equated to under 5 straight-up points, which hurts.

Still, when the core metric is peak 5-year value it is hard not to elect someone whose top finishes look like this:

1st
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd

Though his FBHOF score was 64.6, I felt the finishes listed above were enough to justify inclusion. He’s in.

Leaving in Biggio means of course, that Soriano is on the outside looking in. This was a difficult decision, one exacerbated by the fact it leaves us with just three hall of fame second basemen – still hard to fathom in a 27 year period.

In all likelihood Soriano will be elected in years to come as he increases his eligible seasons beyond the eight he currently sits with. Granted, once he plays more games as an outfielder his competition becomes much greater, but his core years of 2002 (15.4 pts), 2003 (13.4 points), and 2006 (12.5 points) are a great stepping stone. As soon as his 5th best year (35th overall finish, 8.6 pts in 2007) is pushed down the ladder, replaced by a more prolific one, he’ll likely be enshrined immediately after the season.

Baseball has fascinated me for as far back as I can remember, and even though I don’t recall it well, I still love the fact the first game I ever attended was the infamous Pine Tar incident. My father tells the story wonderfully – about being right behind the dugout with his two young sons, of the home run that larger than life Dave Winfield hit that seemingly never rose more than 6 feet off the ground, and most incredibly, having the infamous Yankee manager Billy Martin, stroll out of the dugout, turn to look at the crowd, directly at us, and smile an all-knowing smile before inciting one of the strangest endings to a game in any sport, at any time.

Let’s look back on the situation in order to get into the mind of Martin at the time:

- The Yankees and Kansas City Royals were two of the biggest rivals in sports in the early 1980’s, and each had been at or near the top of their divisions for the previous few years.

- The Yanks knocked the Royals out of the playoffs in 1976, 1977, and 1978.

- The Royals returned the favor in 1980.

- These teams hated each other, and the fans of each felt exactly the same way.

Now fast forward to the summer 1983 with both squads fighting for a playoff spot, each just 2 games behind the division leaders. The Royals have lost the first two games of a three game set and are down by a run heading into the last inning. Journeyman Dale Murray is cruising along in relief, holding the Royal bats at bay for 3-plus innings. Of course, every last person in the park knows that the most feared reliever in the history of the sport is waiting to get into the game at a moments notice, ready to quash any life left in the visiting Royals.

It takes just two pitches for Murray to retire the first two batters of the inning, removing virtually all hope of a Royals victory. Funny thing about baseball though. There is no clock; the only way to end the game is to get beat, on the field, after a thrown pitch. Sure enough, UL Washington, he of the .233 batting average, finds a way to get on base with a well placed single to center field.

This stroke of luck allows one of the most famous batter-pitcher match-ups of all time to take place. The 2-out base hit brought George Brett to the plate – a first ballot Hall of Famer for his on the field skills, and no doubt a would be first ballot inductee to the hall of wearing your heart on your sleeve. This was the epitome of a ‘classic confrontation’ taking place in front of 35,000 fans on what was a perfect Sunday afternoon for baseball. (Trying to calculate the odds of it being 71 degrees, in the Bronx, during the heart of the dog-days of summer, makes one believe that a higher power exists).

Sure enough Brett drilled the first pitch, a 98 mile per hour fastball, deep towards the left field stands for what would give the Royals a 5-4 lead. But it’s foul. All of Yankeeland breathes a huge sigh of relief. The next pitch was identical, but Brett was ready for it and pulled the bullet high and far well beyond the right field fence for what could be the game winning home run. Before Brett could even make it around to home plate, out of the dugout strode Billy Martin. Martin of course, was probably a lunatic, but that didn’t prevent him from triumphing this day, if only temporarily. As I mentioned, before reaching the top step, Martin turned toward the crowd behind the 1st base dugout and smiled, a grin that eliminates all doubt, and then proceeds to saunter out to the Home Plate umpire.

Nobody in attendance had a clue what Martin was doing – it was a completely clean play with no apparent breaking of the rules in question. Brett stood in the dugout watching and wondering what home plate umpire Tim McLelland and Martin could be discussing. Martin then requested that Brett’s bat be examined, and, after laying the bat across home plate, McLelland took a few steps towards the Royal dugout and signaled that Brett was now out.

Pandemonium.

If you are not familiar with the rule: the bat handle, for not more than 18 inches from the end, may be covered or treated with any material or substance to improve the grip. Any such material or substance, which extends past the 18-inch limitation, shall cause the bat to be removed from the game. Of course, this had no bearing on Brett’s home run as pine tar19 inches up the bat handle has absolutely no effect at free swinging batter, it was originally in the rules for bunting purposes.

Now, ask yourself the following question – could this scenario have played out in any other sport?

- No other sport could ever see a manager, who had just lost the game for all intents and purposes, slowly and confidently walk to the umpiring crew and turn the game upside down.

- No other sport has its fans so close to the action, so much so that they could feel like the coach looked directly at their own eyes and smiled.

- No other sport allows the game to be suspended in time, like the few minutes Martin and McClelland conversed, with everyone present watching, just those two, waiting for the outcome to mystery.

- Martin had known of the pine tar problem with Brett’s bat for at least several weeks, but was saving that information for a ‘special occasion’. This is just not plausible for the likes of the NFL, NBA, or NHL.

- Finally, no other sport allows a conversation between his father and sons to take place so often, but never grow stale or tiresome.

Baseball bridges the gap between generations. It has existed in basically the form we see today since the late 1800s. Forget sports, what other aspect of American life can this be said to be true? A great quote from Ken Burns “Baseball” says all you need to know:

It is played everywhere. In parks and playgrounds and prison yards. In back alleys and farmers’ fields. By small children and old men. Raw amateurs and millionaire professionals. It is a leisurely game that demands blinding speed. The only game in which the defense has the ball. It follows the seasons, beginning each year with the fond expectancy of springtime, and ending with the hard facts of autumn. It is a haunted game, in which every player is measured against the ghosts of all who have gone before. Most of all, it is about time and timelessness. Speed and grace. Failure and loss. Imperishable hope. And coming home.

Here’s the audio for the fantastic call of the Brett at bat made by the late, great, Phil Rizzuto. Part 1 and Part 2. (Complete with the word huckleberry, a 10ft leap by Don Mattingly, and more than one Holy Cow.)

by Lou Poulas of Fantasy Insider Online

The key to any draft – whether it is auction style, scratch, or keeper – is to find value where your competitors don’t see it. Each year owners scour the web and other print publications for information on sleepers, injuries, and any type of data they can get their hands on to help weed through the hundreds of available players to discover who’ll breakout in the coming year.

This is at best a painstaking exercise at the worst a fruitless one. Each publication has their own ideas and frankly they don’t always do a great job of backing up their beliefs. Sometimes they even contradict each other.

An alternative way to look for value is through gauging your competitor’s belief in certain players, and anticipate where they will fall in the draft. A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole. Statistics fluctuate annually (sometimes through luck, other times due to legitimate reasons such as injuries) and for established players most of it is just noise. A player may simply have a good or bad luck year.

A quick way to get at this data is to compare the Fantasy Rank of the previous year to their projected rank to the upcoming season. Large differences often signify where an owner may over or undervalue a player, and knowing this allows better planning for your draft. I’ve identified some batters who are likely to be valued incorrectly.

Overvalued – These players are likely to be drafted earlier than they should be. They still may be good players, even great, but don’t plan your draft strategy on obtaining their services.

Aaron Rowand – At 29 years of age, Rowand had his career year in 2007, setting career highs in R, 2B, HR, RBI, and OBP. A great rule of thumb is to never pay a premium for players coming off a career year as they are almost always going to disappoint. Rowand is no different. If you need more reasons to avoid him, remember he’s leaving his bandbox of a park (Citizens Bank) for San Francisco which is average at best. Plus, and more importantly, he’ll be surrounded by one of the worst everyday lineups in baseball.

Magglio Ordonez – I like Ordonez, he’ll certainly be a good player this year, but too much of his value in 2007 was in due high batting average (.363). He is a career .312 hitter with a previous high of .320 and in 2008 projects to a line of .308, 85 R, 20 HR, 94 RBI which is more in line with a top-20 Outfielder than the Top-3 version he was in 2007.

Mike Lowell – I admit I dislike Lowell and usually avoid him at all costs. This didn’t work out so well for me last year, but it will work out fine for me in ’08:

2007: .324 AVG, 79 R, 21 HR, 120 RBI, 3 SB, 8th Ranked 3B
2008: .283 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB, 18th Ranked 3B

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

-20: Ichiro Suzuki, OF (17, 37)
-20: Randy Winn, OF (40, 60)
-19: Eric Byrnes, OF (2, 21)
-11: Shane Victorino, OF (29, 40)
-10: Placido Polanco, 2B (9, 19)
-10: Casey Blake, 3B (12, 22)
-6: JJ Hardy, SS (9, 15)
-5: Khalil Green, SS (6, 11)

Undervalued – the heart of every winning season is finding the draft day steal.

Nick Swisher – The new Chicago White Sox center fielder had a down year in 2007, batting just .265 while achieving close the bear minimum of counting stats required for a fantasy outfielder – 78 R, 84 RBI, 22 HR. With no speed, Swisher ranked the 38th best in the OF in 2007.

2008 looks to be a bit different. Why? Swisher is better than what he showed last year and is moving from an extreme pitchers park to an above average hitters park. His projected stats are improved almost across the board t0 91 R, 94 RBI, 30 HR. His batting average still figures to be low (.264) but this projection makes him a top 20 outfielder.

Alfonso Soriano – Many, including myself, had Soriano ranked 1st coming into last season and he never did live up to expectations, even when on the field. He missed almost a month of playing time, but even projected over 160 games his 2007 stats don’t electrify – 39 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 23 SB. Very good of course, but not worthy of a 1st overall pick.

Fast forward to 2008. Owners still have sour tastes in their mouths having spent $40+ on him last year, and are likely ready to stay away this draft day. His projections are still great though – 35 HR, 97 RBI, 91 R, 22 SB. Watch him fall a bit and grab him early in the second round.

Miguel Tejada – We can all agree Tejada is no longer the elite shortstop that he was a few years ago. Coming off an injury plagued and disappointing 2007, Tejada finds himself with a new team and ready to start anew. He is 32 years old and not likely to completely self destruct. For fantasy owners, the better news is that his counting stats were held down last year due to his missed playing time. He hit 18 HR, with 72 R and 81 RBI making him a lower tier option at shortstop.

His projections are solid – .297 AVG, 76 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB and perhaps more importantly his competition will not be as good. Khalil Greene, Orlando Cabrera, JJ Hardy, Julio Lugo, Jhonny Peralta, and Edgar Renteria were all ranked higher than him last year but project to be ranked worse than him this year. Let your fellow owners draft this crew before Tejada, and a few rounds later get the same value for less cost.

Other Mentions
For each player below, the difference between his 2007 Rank and 2008 Projected Rank is displayed. All Rankings are “within the position” as opposed to overall.

+19: Andruw Jones, OF (31, 12)
+16: Vernon Wells, OF (42, 26)
+9: Rafael Furcal, SS (15, 6)
+7: Troy Glaus, 3B (22, 15)
+5: Miguel Tejada, SS (14, 9)
+5: Tad Iguchi, 2B (19, 14)
+5: Aramis Ramirez, 3B (10, 5)
+5: Josh Fields, 3B (16, 11)
+4: Alex Gordon, 3B (17, 14)

Final Note: Earlier I said, “A common bias in all leagues is to put too much emphasis in how a player faired in the previous season, instead of looking at a player’s career path as a whole.” This only works for established players and you should of course pay specific attention to players at the very beginning or very end of their careers.