Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

The catchers are enshrined today, a position that is the weakest in the history of fantasy baseball.

I have dreaded writing this article for about six weeks now.  By my methodology only one catcher since 1980 deserves induction into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame and I haven’t been able to convince myself I am being too harsh.  If we went position by position we find the following number of inductees:

15 – Outfield
6 – First Base
3 – Second Base
3 – Third Base
2 – Shortstop
1 – Catcher

This actually makes a bit of sense.  Outfielders take 5 of 14 offensive roster slots in standard leagues, and as we have seen first basemen have perennially been the power house position.  Further, if only two shortstops are worthy of enshrinement, maybe one catcher is too.

And isn’t this what fantasy baseball is mostly about?  The debate on positional scarcity is still around, and for those not familiar with it, it basically states that owners should put a premium on good players at weak positions.  I agree to a degree, but still would never draft a catcher first, no matter how much better he is than his peers.  In truth, whenever there are weak positions drafted first (See Hanley Ramirez, circa 2008) it’s almost entirely because their statistics back it up.  Ramirez could hit 35 HR and steal 60 bases while batting .300.  That’s elite for a shortstop, first basemen, or outfielder.

This same phenomenon was seen with catchers.  A few years ago the trend seemed to move towards drafting catchers early – Joe Mauer and Brian McCann were sometimes taken in Round 2. While this may have worked for a single season, in terms of career value, it’s a bust. McCann was ranked 89th last year, Mauer 107th.  Catcher is a demanding position, and while there have certainly been instances of greatness over the course of a single season, and perhaps greatness enough to demand a spot high draft pick – the excellence required for FBHOF induction just hasn’t proved sustainable at the catcher position.

To be clear on my methodology, I do take positional scarcity into consideration.  Each FBHOF score is calculated by first looking at the player among the entire batting pool (or pitcher pool) and then only against a player peers who were eligible at the same position.  The two scores are then weighted – 60% for the straight score and the remaining a product of the positional score.  This is nothing to sneeze at, as 40% of the players score is solely a function of how good he is at a position.

With this out of the way, we are still left searching for recurring brilliance.  You likely already realize that Mike Piazza is the lone inductee.  And why is this?  Because his batting line reads like that of any other inducted player.  His FBHOF points by year are 15.2, 12.6, 11.5, 11.4, 10.8 giving him 61.4 peak score.  This is 27th best among batters and ahead of three fellow Hall of Famer’s – Cal Ripken, Craig Biggio, and Frank Thomas.

We’ll get back to Piazza’s accomplishments in a moment. First, I wanted to finish the answer as to why only one catcher.  Before I answer, ask yourself the following question – does a player have to have five great seasons to be considered for the Hall of Fame?  My answer is a resounding yes.  Five years in awfully short period of time, and no Baseball Hall of Famer is ever inducted based upon such a short career.  If we are focusing on such a short time at the FBHOF, those years had better be great.  From what we have seen since we started inductions in late April, not one inductee has had less than five great seasons.  With that said, here are the 5th best seasons for each of the Top 5 Catchers (as determined by FBHOF score):

This illustrates two things to me.  First, Piazza was really, really good if that was his 5th best season.  Second, the rest of those scores don’t impress me all that much (though keep in mind 1981 was a shortened season).  Over the past 20 years there most certainly have been numerous ‘Hall of Fame seasons’, but not careers:

In 1985 Carlton Fisk hit 37 home runs, driving in 107 runners and scoring 85 himself.  He even stole 17 bases.  But he batted .238 and averaged just 74 R and 71 RBI in his next three best years.

We all have love Darren Daulton’s 1992 season right?  .270 AVG, 80 R, 27 HR, 109 RBI, and 11 SB in low offense year, marks good enough for 7th overall.  But you could hardly consider the rest of his career fantasy worthy – an average of 63 R, 70 RB, and a .265 BA over his remaining 4 best years.

Javy Lopez sure was impressive in 1998 and 2003-2004, hitting 100 HR and 301 RBI while maintaining a .310 batting average.  But he was ranked just 84th and 85th in years four and five.

One more for you – Jorge Posada.  He’s likely going to the Baseball Hall of Fame at this rate but outside of last season his average for his “next best 4 years” is .275 / 80 / 25 / 94 / 2, with a rank 52nd overall and 4th among catchers.  Do I want him on my fantasy team?  Yes, of course.  Is he going to make or break my season?  No, and he therefore passes the red face test as to whether or not he’s HOF worthy.

Finally, the case of Piazza proves that it is possible to make the FBHOF as a catcher.  Love him or loathe him, he could hit with the best of them.   His 5 best years:

What truly separates Piazza from his catcher brethren, and every other baseball player of the fantasy era for that matter, is the fact he had more seasons ranked number 1 at his position than any other.   From 1993 to 2002 he finished 1st at catcher nine times – more than Alex Rodriguez (8), Albert Pujols (6), Paul Molitor (5), Ryne Sandberg (5), Cal Ripken (4), or Barry Bonds (3).  This is an incredible accomplishment.

Note:  Earlier I mentioned positional scarcity score.  Thought it might be interesting to list the top 5 seasons at each position based solely on positional scarcity:

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

Six first basemen are enshrined today, a position that is arguably the strongest in the history of fantasy baseball.

First base is the power position of fantasy baseball.  Each spot around the diamond has had their fair share of power hitting players, but year in and year out, fantasy owners rely on first basemen more than any other for their main source of home runs. In fact, since the fantasy era, first basemen have the led fantasy leagues in the long ball each year except 1982 and 1983, when Mike Schmidt skewed the numbers enough to vault third basemen into first overall.

A few weeks ago, I ran a chart in the shortstop induction article, showing the number of times each position finished, on average, first overall.  I found a flaw however, by counting all the players at a position, and not just the ones who would have been “fantasy worthy”, I overestimated the impact of certain positions.  Re-running the data it is clear there is no argument as to which positions have been the best since 1980 – it’s either first base or outfield.    The chart below depicts the average score for “fantasy worthy” players who were eligible at these two positions:

In the first half of the 1980s both positions were relatively equal, with one season, 1981, easily going to the outfielders.  In the period of 1986 through 1991 however, the first base crew easily outpaced their counterparts in four of the five years.  Through 1995 the two positions were either equal or first base was winning handily.  This gives them a 10 year stretch were first basemen were the class of fantasy baseball.  Since 1995 the positions have been relatively equivalent, with 5 years going to the outfield, 4 to the first basemen, and three with finishes close enough to call a tie.

Finally, below is the average score of ‘fantasy worthy’ players by position, broken down by decade:

Just further proof that first base gets it done.  On to the inductees.

Albert Pujols
In his current trend, Pujols will be the only player of the fantasy era to never go below the 10 FBHOF point threshold until the downturn of his career.  Think about this for a minute.  At the end of his 2007 season, Pujols was ranked 4th among batters in overall FBHOF Score and 3rd in Peak score.  The players ahead of him are Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Rickey Henderson in terms of overall score, and just Rodriguez and Bonds in peak score.  The three of these are inner circle Hall of Famers and none of them has accomplished what Pujols has done so far, in fantasy baseball terms anyway.

Since his rookie season, Pujols has put up FBHOF worthy statistics each year.  It took Bonds five years to reach 10 FBHOF points and both Henderson and Rodriguez reached the mark in their second eligible years.  While most of this is academic in the long run (does it really matter that Rodriguez appeared in just 65 games his first two years?), it is still an amazing accomplishment.

Pujols’ best year was in 2003 when he batted .359 with 137 R, 43 HR, 124 RBI, and 5 SB.  This scored him 17.2 FBHOF Points, 6th best all time for a batter.  “King Albert” has been eligible at First Base, Third Base, and in the Outfield; and is the only player to finish as the best overall at more than two positions.

Jeff Bagwell
In 1994 Bagwell was the best player on the planet.  In 110 games (strike season) he hit 39 HR, 116 RBI, 104 R, and 15 SB.  Prorated over 162 games the numbers look like something Lou Gehrig might have put up – .368 AVG, 153 R, 57 HR, 170 RBI, 22 SB.  His 17.6 FBHOF points is 5th all time.

He also had 3 more seasons of 40+ HR, 125+ RBI, and a .300+ batting average.  Between 1999 and 2000 he scored almost 300 runs.  He was fast too – stealing at least 30 bases in 1997 & 1999.

Eddie Murray
I almost scratched my scoring system when I saw Murray come out as the 3rd best fantasy first basemen.  After all, he was a ‘compiler’ right?  How could a compiler score so high in a system that rewards peak 5 year value over everything else?

While he was a compiler, he was extraordinarily good at it.  We aren’t talking about a compiler who is routinely 20th best in the league, we’re talking about one was routinely Top 5 at their position.

Murray was fantasy worthy in 17 seasons which brings his overall score up from a solid 21st to a very good 16th.  But, he also hit a ton between 1980 and 1985, routinely finishing among the leaders each year in all fantasy categories except stolen bases.  In his peak years of 1980 and 1983-1985 Murray finished in the Top 10 fifteen times:  twice in AVG, four times in Runs, and five times in both Home runs and RBI.

Finally, let’s take a look at the number of times in their 5-year peak that each of our first basemen finished 1st or 2nd at their position:

5 – Pujols
5 – Bagwell
5 – Murray
4 – Helton
4 – Mattingly
4 – Thomas

Murray also did it twice more, besting all but Pujols who has seven right along with him.

Todd Helton
Don Mattingly
Alright, I have to be palms up about something.  I idolized Don Mattingly growing up, still do in fact.  That said, no funky business was needed to elect him to this Hall of Fame, as he is most certainly deserving.

As with all of the 1980’s players, we have to put Mattingly’s accomplishments in context of the lower offensive era.  One way to do that is to stack him up against an eerily similar player of today’s era – Todd Helton.

The scores are almost identical – Mattingly has a higher peak (he’s one of just 8 batters to have multiple 15+ point seasons), but Helton’s 3rd through 5th best seasons were slightly better thus evening out the scores.  The 7 year view is close as well, and after that, Mattingly suffered a rather quick fall to irrelevancy.

Getting back to era’s, remembering how close the scoring was, take a gander at their actual 5 year peak stats:

Helton    – .349 AVG, 125 R, 37 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB
Mattingly – .330 AVG,  97 R, 28 HR, 119 RBI, 1 SB

Times sure have changed if these two are on the same footing.

Frank Thomas
Thomas is another case that really challenges the FBHOF scoring system.  Thomas is regarded, within some circles anyway, as the best hitter of his time.  Here is a player that hit .340 or better three times; reached 125 RBI’s four times; and had 7 seasons of 35 or more home runs.  He was simply a monster at the plate.

If this is true, how can he be rated below both Mattingly and Helton?  Two reasons – peak vs. longevity, and the late 90’s.  Whether you like it or not, Thomas simply did not have the peak that either Mattingly or Helton enjoyed.  He was markedly better over a longer period of time, but Mattingly’s two best years were better than any of Thomas’, and Helton had three better years.  If you look at an 8 year stretch instead of a peak-5 year though, Thomas easily bests the two:  94.6 Pts for Thomas vs. 86.0 for Helton and 83.8 for Mattingly.

Fantasy baseball has a “what have you done for me lately” mentality.  Even looking at the best 5 years of player is stretching the limits of how far in advance a fantasy owner thinks.  Even in the most robust of keeper leagues, rarely would a player remain on a single team for 3 years, let alone 5, and this is reflected in how the FBHOF scores.

The late 1990’s also hurt Thomas.  Looking at his statistics subjectively, one might come to the conclusion that 2000 was his best year:  .328 AVG, 115 R, 43 HR, and 143 RBI.  After all, those figures are all career highs with the exception of his batting average, which was great nonetheless.  But in 2000, this wasn’t even good enough to be the best first basemen, let alone the best overall batter.  He finished 3rd among first basemen behind Helton and Bagwell and 14th overall.  His batting average was 19th in the league, Runs were 15th, HR’s were 7th, and RBI 4th.  Of course, his 1 stolen base was also quite low, even for a first basemen.  It was 25th among his peers, and 283rd overall.

As a result of all the above, 2000 isn’t even considered part of his 5 year peak score.  Which brings us back to the first point – he was great for so many years, but never was ‘the best’.  In fact, he and Murray are the only two First Base inductees to never finish a season #1 overall among batters.

This has been a long post, and I’ll spare you some time by just mentioning a few of the near misses:

- Cecil Cooper was closest with 63 FBHOF Points.  Really an underrated player.
- Andres Galarraga had great years in 1988, 1996, and 1997 but was just ‘very good’ the rest of the time.
- Rafael Palmeiro, aka., Eddie Murray Lite.
- Which brings us to Mark McGwire.  Before complaining he’s not in the FBHOF please remember the following:  He hit .300 once.  Scored 100 runs just thrice.  And of course was possibly the slowest player in the game, amassing less than 15 stolen bases throughout his career.  Those facts aren’t kind to fantasy batters.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

1 – Barry Bonds
Where to start with the best baseball has seen this side of George Herman?   Maybe a list will suffice:

- Bonds has more 10 FBHOF Point seasons that any other.
- If 10 Points is the mark of “goodness”, the mark of greatness is 13.  Bonds has more of these than any other as well.
- He has taken longevity to the extreme.  Bonds is the only player to be Fantasy Worthy in 20 or more seasons and never have a single year in his career where an eligible season was deemed not worthy.
- He has had fourteen finishes as a Top-15 ranked batter, a mark 40% better than any other.
- His 5 year peak average is off the charts:  .317, 112 R, 45 HR, 112 RBI, 32 SB
- During various times in his career, Bonds has batted .370, hit 73 HR, scored 129 times, had 137 RBI, and stole 52 bases – there is nothing else he could have accomplished on the field of fantasy baseball.
- And if you were in On-Base leagues, well, he singled handedly carried many a team.

Bonds mark of 90.0 FBHOF points is best all time among hitters.  He’s first in any position in Career total, and his peak score of 77.6 is second only to Alex Rodriguez.  He’ll have a special write up for in commemoration of being one of a handful to accumulate 85 or more FBHOF points.

2 – Rickey Henderson
Henderson is another all time great that had an ability to combine power and speed like few others.  In his case, few others in the history of all baseball, and not just within the fantasy era.

Henderson owns the record for most career stolen bases, and given how precious these can be in fantasy baseball, we’ll start there.  He appeared in 90 or more games 21 times in his fantasy career, missing the mark in 1996 and 2002.  Of those 21 seasons, he stole 30 or more bases all but once.  He stole 40+ sixteen times, 60+ ten times, and 100+ three times, topping out at 130 in 1982.  Some whole fantasy teams don’t steal 130 bases today.

While not a great average hitter (.279 fantasy career, though he did reach .300 on seven occasions) he did walk a great deal (2190 career), which led to a prolific amount of run scoring.  He reached the 100 runs scored mark thirteen times and averaged 126 during his 5-year peak.

What truly set him above others of his ilk was the fact he could hit for some power.  He hit between 20 and 30 home runs four times, in 1985, 1986, 1990, and 1993, and on several occasions finished in the Top 20.

His best fantasy season was the first year he was with the Yankees.  In 1985 he hit .314 with 24 HR, 72 RBI, 80 SB and the # 1 rank in batters.  This was also good enough for 3rd in the MVP ballot behind teammate Don Mattingly and George Brett.  Mattingly also finished as the second best batter in fantasy baseball.

3 – Ken Griffey Jr.
4 – Sammy Sosa
The careers of the next two outfielders overlap almost perfectly, and given the fact they have almost identical FBHOF scores we’ll chart them in tandem.  First, a graph of their point totals by year.

Both started their careers in 1989 but with much different pedigrees.  Sosa signed for $3,500 as an amateur free agent in 1985 by the Texas Rangers.  He made the majors in 1989, but started slowly and did not become a major fantasy force until 1993 when he hit 33 HR and stole 36 bases.

At the same time, Griffey was the first pick of the draft in 1987, and had an impact immediately, and almost attaining the 10 FBHOF point mark in the second year of his career.  Griffey ultimately outpaced Sosa in each year through the 1994 season.  At the end of these first 6 years Griffey accumulated 63.8 FBHOF points to Sosa’s 19.2.  With exception of Griffey’s injury riddled 1995 seasons, this trend would continue through 1997, with the gap widening to 93.1 vs. 46.3

1998 and 1999 were banner years for both players with Sosa’s ‘98 campaign going down as one of the best seasons ever (and better than any of Griffey’s):  .308 AVG, 134 R, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 18 SB.  Griffey declined steadily from this point forward, routinely succumbing to injuries, though he did have a decent 8 FBHOF point season in 2005.

Sosa lasted a few more years, putting up 5 consecutive seasons of 10 or more FBHOF points.  His other great season was 2001 when he batted .328 with 146 R, 64 HR, 160 RBI, but no stolen bases.  Still, Sosa hung on at the tail end of his career until he hit rock bottom in 2005.

Let’s compare their years in point order instead of chronological:

Sosa’s best two years are better than Griffey’s best two, but Griffey picks up the slack topping Sosa by a fairly wide margin in the remaining 3 year peak period gives him the edge.  Further, though this does not specifically count in the induction criteria, Griffey’s best 6th through 9th seasons are better than the corresponding seasons for Sosa.  And if we simply add up the best 9 seasons for each, Griffey leads comfortably 113.8 to 107.0.

One last comment before moving on to the next player.  While both of these greats played in virtually the same exact years, Griffey’s stardom came a bit earlier than Sosa’s.  The offensive levels from 1991-1999 were lower than the same nine year period from 1993 -2002.  Sosa’s great years came during a time when many a player were having great years – proof of which can be seen in a 2 line table:

Top 10 Finishes Among Batters
Griffey – 6
Sosa – 4

5 – Dale Murphy
The two time Most Value Player was one of the premier outfielders of 1980’s.  His 16.6 FBHOF points in 1983 is 11th best of the fantasy era and his 5-year peak score is 10th best.

Murphy was a power hitter with the ability to steal a fair amount bases.  His 5 year peak average stat line was superb:  .294 Avg, 114 R, 38 HR, 109 RBI, 20 SB.  This was good enough for five Top-6 finishes among batters, two of which were the best of the outfielders in 1982 and 1983.

His career total of 109.7 FBHOF points is just 31st of all time since his peak was relatively short.  Thirty-four players have accumulated a score of 65 or better, the bogey used for induction (though special circumstances can aid one’s case as well).  However, only five retired players have less career points.

6 – Albert Belle
Belle was his generation’s version of a disgruntled Dale Murphy.  During his prime, few could hit a ball any harder.  His peak average of .318 AVG, 108 R, 44 HR, 131 RBI, and 11 SB is 9th best among batters.  But his career lasted just eleven seasons before an arthritic hip forced an early end to his career.

He was fantasy baseball’s best batter in 1995 and had seven total top-25 finishes.

7 – Andre Dawson
“The Hawk” is the first outfielder we’ve come across to require additional seasons beyond the peak 5 years in order to meet FBHOF requirements.  His peak score of 64.7 is very good, but just a hair shy of the magical 65.  Dawson did have 10 additional fantasy worthy seasons though, bringing his score up to a more than respectable 71.2.

His best run was in the early 80’s when on average he finished seasons ranked, on average, 7th.  This does not mean there were 6 better batters – over the four year stretch of 1980-1983 only Cecil Cooper was ranked higher.  The strike shortened 1981 season receives the most FBHOF points – in just 103 games he batted .302 with 71 R, 24 HR, 64 RBI, and 26 SB.  This was second best behind an extraordinary season from fellow FB Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

The season most remembered was in 1987 after he hit 49 HR and drove in 137 runners.  1987 was an abnormal year for power hitters though, and this was good enough for ‘just’ 5th best.

Just Missed the Cut
The complete list of the Top 25 outfielders is as follows:

Quite a list for sure, but two names below the red line require additional commentary.

Dwight Evans was great, but had only two seasons where he was a top 5 outfielder.  He falls just short of the 65 FBHOF point mark and with a field as crowded as this, he doesn’t warrant induction.   Additionally, there appears to be a clear line separating Evans and those ranked above him.

Tony Gwynn certainly deserves his spot in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he didn’t do quite enough at the plate to impact Fantasy Baseball like he did for the Padres.  FB Hall of Famers can sometimes get by being great in four of five categories, but only a relative few can do so in three.  In his peak 5-year period, Gwynn averaged just 9 HR and 73 RBI. For sake of comparison, Tim Raines averaged 11 HR and 55 RBI, but he also bested Gwynn by averaging 71 stolen bases during his peak, almost twice as many.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

This week, in the first of two installments, we begin identifying and electing the best outfielders.

Due to the nature of roster requirements for a typical fantasy league, more outfielders are required to take part in our glorious game and as a result, more outfielders need to be elected into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.  Fifteen have been good enough to deserve enshrinement in html, and today we look at those ranked 8th to 15th.  Don’t fret about having to wait a week for the number one ranked outfielder, unlike our last two positions, outfield has perennially been a power position which makes for some deep and fascinating seasons.

#8 – Larry Walker
In 1997 Walker enjoyed the greatest fantasy season of all time, better than Barry Bonds, Mike Schmidt, and Jose Canseco.   Better than any of the pitchers – Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez, or Randy Johnson.  Much of his Hall of Fame value is staked on this MVP campaign, and an argument can be made that without this outlier of a season he wouldn’t have the credentials for enshrinement.

The numbers were mind boggling though – .366 AVG, 143 R, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 33 SB.

His .366 batting average was second only to the slap hitting Tony Gwynn; he led the league in On Base percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS, Total Bases, Home Runs, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits and several other Sabermetric minded stats like Offensive Winning Percentage and Adjusted Batting Runs.  He was also Top-Three in Runs, Hits, Doubles, and RBI.

While many cringe at the thought of Coors field and how it artificially inflates batting lines, we must keep in mind two important facts:  1) In Fantasy Baseball we aren’t evaluating player skill, we are evaluating the bottom line numbers no matter how the player came by them and 2) in the specific case of Walker, he was just as good if not better on the road:

#9 – Kirby Puckett
This Bridesmaid already has a special write-up on the FBHOF Blog, but suffice to say he was really good.  His peak score is 16th best all time and 11th best among batters.

#10 – Vladimir Guerrero
The free swinging slugger has been a fantasy stalwart since 1998, finishing as a Top 25 batter each year save 2003 when he battled injuries and appeared in just 112 games.  His best season was a narrow miss of the 40-40 club when, in 2002, he hit 39 homers and stole 40 bases.  Always a high average hitter, this season he batted .336 scoring 106 runs and driving in 112 batters.

His 5 year peak average screams all around player:  .331 AVG, 106 R, 38 HR, 117 RBI, 23 SB.

#11 – Tim Raines
Rock was a significantly improved version of Lou Brock, one that brought a bit more power and a heck of a lot more walks.  During his peak, Raines stole on average more than 70 bases per season.  Coupled with a high batting average (from .298 to .330) and a plethora of runs scored, Raines finished as a Top-25 batter six times and if not for Dale Murphy, would have finished as the top overall batter in 1983.  His achievement this year was impressive:  .298, 133 R, 11 HR, 71 RBI, 90 SB.  Raines also receives a large bonus for longevity since he was “fantasy worthy” in 16 seasons, the 13th best mark on record.

#12 – Jose Canseco
The Oakland outfielder debuted in 1985 as a free swinging 20 year old getting his first September call up.  He didn’t disappoint, hitting 5 HR in 29 games and batting just over .300.  During the next two years showed power (64 HR) and became a run producer, driving in 230 runners.  This was all very good but he broke out in ’88.  Still young at 23 years old, Canseco batted .307 and showed improved plate discipline – drawing 78 walks to give him a .391 OBP.  The patience paid off in spades, and swinging at better pitches he smacked 42 home runs.  Additionally, he scored 120 times and drove in 124 while stealing 40 bases at a decent 71% clip.

Canseco is much like the aforementioned Larry Walker in the sense his elite seasons carry him to the hall of fame.  Keeping in mind the generic minimum ‘eyeball’ FBHOF score of 10 per year, Canseco falls well short – his 5th best season in 1986 received only 9.0 points.  Fortunately for Canseco, his 1988 campaign brought home 18.3 FBHOF points, 3rd best among batters since 1980.

#13 – Robin Yount
Yount might be the least appreciated (real) Hall of Famer of the Fantasy Era.  Like seemingly so many players from the mid-70’s to early 90’s, Yount specialized in everything.  Batting Average?  Check, 6 seasons over .300.  Home Runs?  Check, 8 seasons of 15 or more (remember, this was the 80’s, not the homer happy 90’s).  Runs and RBI?  Check and Check – 1600 runs scored and 1400 RBI.  Stolen Bases?  For sure, double digits 16 times.  He started as a shortstop and moved to the outfield at the age of 29 and had great years at both positions:

1982 @SS: .331 AVG, 129 R, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 14 SB, #1 Bat Rk
1989 @OF: .318 AVG, 101 R, 21 HR, 103 RBI, 19 SB, #5 Bat Rk

Yount also lost six seasons in the 1970’s, though none were very good as he didn’t find his power stroke until 1980.  Interestingly, Yount is one of the few players that were good enough to be deemed “fantasy worthy” in every season he played.

#14 – Garry Sheffield
Sheffield’s low ranking (relatively, 14th is Hall of Fame quality after all) caught me by surprise.  Perhaps I believed his own talk about how good he was, but in reviewing his final stat lines he never had that truly elite season.  Sheffield never finished #1 overall and had six places in the Top 25 batters, a number that is good but not remarkable.    His best season was 2003 when he really was great, but not Albert Pujols elite:  .330, 126 R, 39 HR, 132 RBI, 18 SB.  Another observation, and while it might not seem like much, Sheffield routinely missed ten to twenty, if not more, games per season.  This adds up in fantasy baseball were counting stats are critical

Lest I come across as too negative for an inductee, I feel the need to point out that Sheffield did have eleven seasons of 25+ home runs, eight 100 RBI seasons, and seven 100 Runs Scored seasons.  His consistency, and high end consistency, was remarkable.

#15 – Manny Ramirez
You may have noticed that all of our outfielders have had at least some semblance of speed; even Sheffield averaged 11 stolen bases per season in his peak years.  Ramirez is the first pure slugging outfielder to be inducted, and only the second player we’ve seen never to reach double digit steals in a season (the other was Cal Ripken).  This is just to say you really do need to slug at an elite level to be honored in the FBHOF if you aren’t somewhat fleet of foot.  Manny fits the bill nicely:

- Eleven seasons of 30 or more home runs, reaching 40 five times
- Six seasons of 120 or more RBI, reaching 140 three times, and topping out at 165 in 1999
- Scored 90 or more runs 9 times.
- His career batting average for eligible seasons was .314

His peak line brings tears of joy, almost literally:  .310 AVG, 115 R, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 3 SB

Coming next week we’ll round out the class of the outfielders by inducting seven more into the FBHOF.  Some names on the list?  A hawk, a kid, and Hannah Storm’s least favorite player.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

This week, the best shortstops are identified and elected.

The third installment for the inaugural list of inductees into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame looks at shortstops, a position which has undergone much churn since 1980.  Previously a non-hitting position, shortstops are now arguably the strongest in fantasy baseball and this is reflected in the inductee selections.  Aside from Catchers, the shortstops have historically been one of the two weakest positions and their representation in the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is minimal – only two made the cut.

Below is a chart the bears some explanation.  To figure out which positions have historically outperformed the others, I combed through the scores of each fantasy worthy player, determined the player’s position, and then derived the average score for each position, each year.

To make sure we are all on the same page, I:
- Took all “fantasy worthy” shortstops in 1980 and figured their group average score.
- Repeated the process for the 1980 crew of 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF.
- Then derived a similar set of scores for every other season.
- Almost done.  Next I determined the ranking of each position for each year when compared to other positions.  For example, in 1980 going across the diamond (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) the average scores were 5.6, 3.7, 4.9, 4.2, 5.0.  This gives a ranking (across the diamond again) of 1st, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd.
- Finally, I summed the number of instances for each ranking for each position.  The result:

Please note that I excluded Catchers since they are easily the worst position and there is no need to spend any time confirming this.  I also only looked at the period of 1980 through 2002 since we don’t need to look at the most recent 5 years because any player who came to the majors just 5 years ago will not be in the hall of fame.  (Please note however that in the last 5 years the shortstops have had the best ranking three times).

What I found is not surprising.  First basemen followed by outfielders are the strongest positions historically.  Middle infielders take up the rear while the third basemen lie somewhere in between.  The point?  Shortstops rarely help your fantasy team to a great extent.  If they rarely help it stands to reason that there won’t be many elite players, especially when only looking at players who are great for at least five year stretches.   Many shortstops have had very good seasons, but not so many have done it at least five times.

Need further evidence?  After looking at this data for quite some time it has become apparent that a HOF worthy seasonal score is about 10 FBHOF points.  This is the minimum.  Here is list of the number of 10 point seasons for each position from 1980-2002:

214:  OF
81:  1B
50:  3B
37:  2B
30:  SS
19:  C
5:  DH

Shortstops just don’t help you win as much as other positions and as a result, only two make it in today.

Starting things off is arguably the best fantasy player of all time, Alex Rodriguez.  It seems it has been a lifetime since Rodriguez has had shortstop eligibility, but in his career just 31% of his seasons have been at third base.  The rules therefore require that he goes in as a shortstop and so he will.

Rodriguez’s FBHOF score is a whopping 86.9, second only to Barry Bonds for offensive positions and fourth overall.  His Peak Score of 81.2 is the best ever for a batter and his career total is third.  All told, Rodriguez has been the most dominant fantasy player of the era.  It’s worth looking at his stats season by season, here are his 5 best:

He has been so good that his 2002 season where he smacked 57 home runs doesn’t make the cut into his peak score, the core metric used for induction.  Additionally, every season in which he was a full time player Rodriguez has recorded a FBHOF score of at least 10, something no other player has even come close to duplicating.

As one of handful of players to accumulate 85 or more points, the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame will have more on A-Rod’s prowess in a special write-up in the coming weeks.

The second Hall of Fame shortstop is no stranger to greatness either.  Cal Ripken is said to have revolutionized the position and while I am not so sure about that (see Banks, Ernie) I do agree he was really, really good for a long time.

Ripken had two great seasons, 8 years apart no less.  In 1983 he batted .318 with 121 R, 27 HR, and 102 RBI.  In 1991 he was even better attaining a .323 average, with 99 R, 34 HR, 114 RBI, and 6 SB. Both of these seasons scored in high 13’s for FBHOF points and both were of Top-5 overall quality.  In between these years he churned out three other very good to great seasons which makes his peak score 61.0, second to only Rodriguez.  Ripken also joins Howard Johnson and Robin Yount as the only shortstops prior to Rodriguez to finish more than one season rated in the Top 5 overall.

His peak 5-year average batting line is .302 AVG, 107 R, 28 HR, 99 RBI, 3 SB and for those that look at this and see Miguel Tejada keep in mind the context of Ripken’s achievements.  The average league minimum during Ripken’s peak was just .247 AVG, 47 R, 7 HR, 42 RBI, and 6 SB.  This shows how suppressed offenses were while Ripken was one of the greats.

There are several shortstops who could have arguably been elected, but in the end their core FBHOF wasn’t close enough to the magical 65 points to bend the rules.  The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame is for great contributors, not just the very good.

Derek Jeter – Cap’n Jete’s was the closest to election with a solid 60.2 FBHOF score.  In the end however, he’s about a half a season away from enshrinement, and is certainly hurt by the high offensive era he has played through.  Jeter has 3 great seasons (FBHOF scores of 12.6, 12.3), one very good (10.3), and another just below the cut (9.7).  Comparing Jeter to Ripken, we find Ripken’s best was indeed superior to Jeter’s – the Oriole has two seasonal scores above 13.5 which is the difference maker between the two.

Can Jeter make it in?  With a great season, yes, of course.  He also has a chance based upon the longevity bonus that can be awarded (1% for every Fantasy Worthy Season).  Assuming he doesn’t increase his peak score, he’ll need a total of 12 non-peak fantasy worthy seasons to be inducted.  He currently stands at 7.  He’s 34 years old this year, so if he plays at league minimum standards until he’s 38, he’ll make it.  Seems likely to me.

Howard Johnson – Players like Johnson likely deserve their own section at FBHOF.  Johnson was elite for two years, finishing as the #1 and #2 ranked batter in 1989 and 1991.  During these two seasons he averaged 106 R, 37 HR, 109 RBI, 35 SB, and a .273 AVG.  He also finished first or second at his position 4 times.  However, that key 5th season isn’t close to greatness as he finished 43rd overall and this wipes out any chance he had for election.

Nomar Garciaparra – Garciaparra is in almost the same boat as Jeter, he had many very good seasons and not enough great ones.  During his peak he averaged a final ranking of 13th among batters; Ripken averaged 9th and Jeter 12th.

Alan Trammell – The Detroit Tiger isn’t all that close to election and his real baseball skills are much superior to his Fantasy Baseball skills.  He’s also hurt because he perennially seemed to miss 20 or more games so his counting stats don’t quite measure up.  In his 3rd and 4th best years he averaged 67 RBI which simply isn’t Hall of Fame material.

Barry Larkin – The National League version of Trammell:

Miguel Tejada – It surprised me how far away Tejada is from legitimate consideration.  His 2002 and 2004 seasons were great, finishing among the Top 10 batters and either 1st or 2nd at his position.  But his 2005 and 2006 campaigns fall just short as both result in less than 10 FBHOF points, and his 5th best is well off the mark.  He finished 41st among batters in 2003.  He’s off to a great start in 2008 though, so we can’t quite count him out forever.