Image result for allais paradox

The Allais Paradox:

Gamble A: 100% chance of receiving $1 million.

Gamble B: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, 89% chance of receiving $1 million, and 1% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble C: 11% chance of receiving $1 million, and an 89% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble D: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, and a 90% chance of receiving nothing.

Most people would choose A over B, less money for no risk. Those same people would choose D over C, though, more money for more risk. Below is the expected value for each:

Gamble  Expected Value
A $1 million
B $1.39 million
C $110,000
D $500,000

* Formulas for the above can be found here.

Therein lies the paradox. If you are about expected value, you choose B and D, especially since the probabilities are the same.

You know what the real paradox is, though? I’m Asian, math SAT score was almost-perfect, English SAT score was ESL-esque (I was born in this country), and I get paid (not much) to write and I barely understand the Allais Paradox. No wonder my parents disowned me (They didn’t really, but I wouldn’t blame them if they did).

Damnit SON!!! What is all this mumbo jumbo and what does it have to do with Paxton and Urías?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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It is said that spontaneity is the key to life. Well, I just got a little something something from the wife the other day, out of the blue so…Long live spontaneity!!! In past iterations of Bear or Bull, I compared two players that were being selected in the same range, according to NFBC ADP. Since my endorphins are still floating merrily through my bloodstream from the “sponataneity,” I wanted to change it up this week. Also, the player that caught my eye this week could not be compared to any mere player anyways. Only a Ferrari 488 GTB would suffice.

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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Evan Longoria is a rare case. In a world of free agency and trades, Longoria has stayed with the Tampa Bay Rays for nine seasons, ever since he was drafted third overall in the 2006 draft. That’s some serious commitment. If I wanted to talk about a lack of commitment, I’d make a low-brow reference to Tony Parker and Eva Longoria. Heyo!

A three time all-star, Longoria used to be one of the first third baseman drafted. However, people tend to gravitate towards youth, sometimes valuing youth over established production. Longoria can still provide some very solid production, and at a discount with his current ADP.

The example I’ll provide is a comparison between Longoria and a fellow third baseman, Kyle Seager. Seager is a great hitter for the Mariners, and is being drafted highly. I’ll show that Longoria should provide similar stats to Seager, at a discounted ADP.  I’ll be examining the last four years of production for both players, which are strikingly similar…

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Trading Places. A true American classic that breaks down society in a binary, Darwinian-esque way: win vs. lose, buy vs. sell, nature vs. nurture, white vs. black, rich vs. poor, and mustache vs. clean shaven. The genius of the movie is that all of it is masked via comedy. Kind of what we do here at Razzball. Holla!!!

In Grey’s Shortstops to Target piece, he went on a tangent over how certain “clowns” had Dansby Swanson ranked. Then THE Razzball Son signal went up and my brain immediately thought of Trading Places.

Before I explain why, let me ask you guys a very important question. For THE Razzball Son signal, do you prefer the Octonaughts siren (#DadLife), KRS-One, or Lion King? I need something because there’s obviously no big symbol shining in the sky. I’m open to any other recommendations as well.

Okay, back to the matter at hand. After THE Razzball Son signal went up and my brain thought of Trading Places, I pictured Klara Bell as Louis Winthorpe III and Grey as Billy Ray Valentine. Hey, Billy GREY Valentine!!! The Universe is a beautiful thing. AND they both have mustaches!!! I love you, Universe.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 
Image result for tyler saladino mustache   Image result for tim anderson

I awoke on Monday, still discombobulated by the fact that some individuals decided that it would be a good idea to shorten our existence on Earth by one hour, when… But Son, we get that hour back later in the year. Que? Talk about a frivolous thing to concoct. I’d rather listen to my wife talk in circles about some thing that she often talks about than try to understand why we need to do this. But…I try and leave no stone unturned, so like a good little grasshopper, I Googled why we have Daylight Savings. Mmm hmmm. Yeah. I see…..Still cockamamie. Anyways, as I was saying before I rudely interrupted myself, I received THE Razzball Son signal. If you don’t know what that is, just click here. No more discombobulation. If you’ve ever taken Ritalin, that’s what happened to my mind. If you’ve never taken Ritalin, do it. The mind just warps into a state of Zen-like focus.

So, Grey writes “Yo, Son. Write something on Tim Anderson.” Why I ask? Grey’s response…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

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Face Off, an American classic. If you haven’t watched it, F@#! off. Your life is incomplete. I was going to write a brief synopsis of the movie, for those that haven’t seen it, but I don’t want those folk reading my piece anyway. Go watch the damn movie!!! For those of you on tilt and want to rip my head off, I do love you guys…especially since you actually took the time to read what I just wrote. Seriously, though, the Razzball community is the best thing out there.

So, why Face Off  for this week’s Bear or Bull?

In the most brilliant maneuver since the Greeks infiltrated Troy with a wooden horse, the Dodgers infected a division rival while keeping one of their top pitchers. Here’s how it went down:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

Before I begin, I want to pay homage to Big Magoo, who is one of the more respected writers at Razzball and previous author of this weekly article. I imagine that he is walking the earth like Ryu, contemplating the dopeness of his existence.

With that said, I want to introduce myself…

I’m Son. My initials are SS, just like Slim Shady! Mind blown! I’ve mostly done stuff over on the football side, but have been pumping out more baseball content, primarily Bear or Bull.

If you’re not familiar with the One Man’s Trash article, it’s time to get existential y’all!!! This should get you in the mood.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

Greetings! Last I recall, the Elders and I were passing Thai sticks in the Secret Pool of Kuang Si, discussing some profoundly important subjects while we took turns etching ancient symbols into the skin directly on and surrounding the pubic region. But of course, our bodies are all immaculately smooth, hairless and chiseled, as if made from marble and then formed in the scorching lava of Mount Kilimanjaro. Why does this matter, you ask? The context will be necessary on our journey together through what looks to be a tumultuous 2017. Trust me in this, and the opportunities for massive glory in all forms of life may fall at your crusty feet like droplets of acid rain that will one day doom this planet (but not yet), burning all your self-pity and self-doubt away, peeling your skin off like a viper, you can be born anew, with a clearer vision and a more artful plan of attack. Anyways, I just woke up on an airplane, as it seems I’m headed back to the United States and below we have what one could consider a synopsis of sorts, of what the Elders and I discussed about fantasy baseball and “other things”.

I am the great Tehol Beddict and this is Disgrace/Delight! Take Heed!

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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This will be the most important thing I ever write for Razzball. I’m not into hyperbole, so that makes it true. Seriously, though, if it ain’t good then it will probably be the last thing I ever write for Razzball and I will endure the same fate as my fellow Korean, Kim Jong Chul.

Yesterday was the most memorable day of my young Razzball life. It all started when I received an email from the Supreme Leader Jr, aka Fantasy Master Lothario, aka Grey Albright. In it he wrote, “Yo, Son! JB is in town. Let’s go pillage the village and bleep the women!!!” Joking about the last part by the way. Words can only say so much…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 

If you’ve been reading the Bear or Bull series, you probably think that I’m some old dude that likes missionary and doesn’t know what bling is. Murphy over Odor and Bradley over Buxton? Well, I did soup up my rice burners almost a decade before the first Fast and Furious movie was released and I have shifted my investment portfolio allocation slightly away from growth. I just talked about investment portfolio allocation. SMH. Anyways, to prove that I can still get my YOLO on and be hip, I’m eschewing the safety and embracing the dark side by advocating Wil Myers (NFBC average ADP 58) over Jose Abreu (NFBC average ADP 63). Many will probably argue that’s not a big deal, but tell a smoker it’s not a big deal for not puffing two straight days after 20+ years of the habit. Baby steps. Enjoy this week’s musical interlude. Man, I am old…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
 
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