Being in a crazy deep league can be a double-edged sword. Planning for a draft or auction where you know your last roster spots are going to be filled by players who are literally listed as 0% owned in some formats can be mildly terrifying. But in a weird way, it can make the first few weeks of the season easier. When the names at the top of the waiver wire are Rickie Weeks and Matt Cain (and, yes, those are actually the names at the top of the wire in my deepest AL and NL leagues, respectively), you have no chance to second-guess yourself. If you were worried about Jharel Cotton or Mike Foltynewicz’s atrocious first starts, for instance, you couldn’t just rashly dump them to take a flyer on Charlie Morton or Hyun-Jin Ryu… because those players are already ensconced on another team as someone’s third or fourth best starter.

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Greetings! Not only did opening week provide screen addicts everywhere an opportunity to put down the joystick for a few hours in order to put more focus into fantasy baseball, obsessing over each pitch like a scorned lover, pretending like any of this REALLY matters as we block out a myriad of life problems, but it provided me with an excuse to write a column, which is a big time win in my book. Heck yea! Super Cool! Sweetness!

Kudos to you if you’ve just recently discovered Razzball, for you are in store for the kind of magical journey you’ve only watched on film. Think ‘Hook’, ‘The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe’, the ‘Harry Potter’ flicks, ‘The Lord of the Rings’ Trilogy and ‘Basic Instinct’ all in one. Read further if you’d like to see me spread my legs for you, a la Sharon Stone… metaphorically of course.

I am Tehol Beddict and this is Disgrace/Delight. Take heed!

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Dylan Bundy was a particularly hard asset to value on draft day.

We had just over 100 innings with a 4.70 FIP and a swinging strike rate of 10.5% that didn’t really turn any heads. Tales of the prospect he once was lingered in broadcasts as announcers imagined a day when the highly talented righty would emerge from the darkness of his injury-plagued past and blossom into the Orioles’ ace.

That day was Wednesday…

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Greetings, Razzball Nation!  When the offseason began, I expected to be addressing you in April after all kinds of doors had opened for women due to the election of our first female president of the United States.  But since we’re all going to have to wait a bit longer for that whole first girl president thing, whereas I am actually writing a fantasy baseball article on the best fantasy website ever, I guess that now makes me the most powerful woman in the country.  Okay, my math from November may be slightly off on that calculation, but that’s not going to stop me from giving you guys some waiver wire suggestions for NL/AL-only or other extra-deep leagues.

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In order to mark the glorious return of baseball, I thought it only appropriate to pay homage to one of the greatest movies of our generation: Bloodsport. If you are one of the people that agrees with the 33% score on Rotten Tomatoes, then I’m going to have to fight you. Disclaimer: I’ve watched the movie hundreds of times, so that pretty much means I have a black belt in all the martial arts disciplines and will no doubt kick your ass. How could you not like a movie with lines like this or or scene with this? C’mon man!!!

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It’s really hard not to overreact, I understand.

With that said, I think that it’s best Madison Bumgarner was the human highlight reel of opening day as opposed to somebody like Mallex Smith or Tuffy Gosewich(!!!).

The early season star of 2016 was the pun machine himself, Trevor Story. I’d consider him a best case scenario for any early season performer. Six homers in his first four games, on his way to a 27 home run season over less than 400 ABs. Story was a top 30 pick this year, all after that early season explosion, and I’ll admit, there was a league where I paid that price for him.

With Bumgarner holding the headlines for the next few days, there is no need for overreaction and desperate projection for his rest-of-season value. We know what he’ll give back. Very, very good value.

Is there a chance somebody else stands out? Of course, and you’ll likely have to make a tough decision to give up that ’25th’ man on your roster as sacrifice if you want to believe in the hype…

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Image result for allais paradox

The Allais Paradox:

Gamble A: 100% chance of receiving $1 million.

Gamble B: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, 89% chance of receiving $1 million, and 1% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble C: 11% chance of receiving $1 million, and an 89% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble D: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, and a 90% chance of receiving nothing.

Most people would choose A over B, less money for no risk. Those same people would choose D over C, though, more money for more risk. Below is the expected value for each:

Gamble  Expected Value
A $1 million
B $1.39 million
C $110,000
D $500,000

* Formulas for the above can be found here.

Therein lies the paradox. If you are about expected value, you choose B and D, especially since the probabilities are the same.

You know what the real paradox is, though? I’m Asian, math SAT score was almost-perfect, English SAT score was ESL-esque (I was born in this country), and I get paid (not much) to write and I barely understand the Allais Paradox. No wonder my parents disowned me (They didn’t really, but I wouldn’t blame them if they did).

Damnit SON!!! What is all this mumbo jumbo and what does it have to do with Paxton and Urías?

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Image result for ferrari 488 gtb

It is said that spontaneity is the key to life. Well, I just got a little something something from the wife the other day, out of the blue so…Long live spontaneity!!! In past iterations of Bear or Bull, I compared two players that were being selected in the same range, according to NFBC ADP. Since my endorphins are still floating merrily through my bloodstream from the “sponataneity,” I wanted to change it up this week. Also, the player that caught my eye this week could not be compared to any mere player anyways. Only a Ferrari 488 GTB would suffice.

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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Evan Longoria is a rare case. In a world of free agency and trades, Longoria has stayed with the Tampa Bay Rays for nine seasons, ever since he was drafted third overall in the 2006 draft. That’s some serious commitment. If I wanted to talk about a lack of commitment, I’d make a low-brow reference to Tony Parker and Eva Longoria. Heyo!

A three time all-star, Longoria used to be one of the first third baseman drafted. However, people tend to gravitate towards youth, sometimes valuing youth over established production. Longoria can still provide some very solid production, and at a discount with his current ADP.

The example I’ll provide is a comparison between Longoria and a fellow third baseman, Kyle Seager. Seager is a great hitter for the Mariners, and is being drafted highly. I’ll show that Longoria should provide similar stats to Seager, at a discounted ADP.  I’ll be examining the last four years of production for both players, which are strikingly similar…

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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Image result for trading places

Trading Places. A true American classic that breaks down society in a binary, Darwinian-esque way: win vs. lose, buy vs. sell, nature vs. nurture, white vs. black, rich vs. poor, and mustache vs. clean shaven. The genius of the movie is that all of it is masked via comedy. Kind of what we do here at Razzball. Holla!!!

In Grey’s Shortstops to Target piece, he went on a tangent over how certain “clowns” had Dansby Swanson ranked. Then THE Razzball Son signal went up and my brain immediately thought of Trading Places.

Before I explain why, let me ask you guys a very important question. For THE Razzball Son signal, do you prefer the Octonaughts siren (#DadLife), KRS-One, or Lion King? I need something because there’s obviously no big symbol shining in the sky. I’m open to any other recommendations as well.

Okay, back to the matter at hand. After THE Razzball Son signal went up and my brain thought of Trading Places, I pictured Klara Bell as Louis Winthorpe III and Grey as Billy Ray Valentine. Hey, Billy GREY Valentine!!! The Universe is a beautiful thing. AND they both have mustaches!!! I love you, Universe.

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