Much like Bruce Jenner’s genitals, probable pitchers are subject to change. For a look at all fantasy baseball streamers, click this link.

Hey everybody, I hope your 4th went well! Me, I had a great time with some friends, some beer, some family, some more beer, some burgers, some jaeger, some policemen, some angry white guys at the local drunk tank…really couldn’t have asked for anything more! Could you keep it down please, I have a roaring headache! Oooooh right, forgot about that part. Me, I just asked they cook Alka Seltzer directly into my hamburger patty the entire time. Worked like a charm! Sorry to the seagulls my jerk friend fed my leftovers to that day, though…R.I.P. Don’t worry, I got him back for you later by telling him the mentos were Alka Seltzer and fed him some Diet Coke. Exploding living things isn’t funny now is it, Craig! Of course we know now none of this intro is true. I have no friends! But what I do have is an iPhone and people text me on it and one said person is Grey. Yeah, I name dropped, whatevs. He said our friend Pete Nice needed some help for this week 14 on the Two Start Pitcher tip so I said ‘how much?’ and Grey said ‘we won’t charge you to write for us this time’ and I said ‘what a deal!’ and jumped on it like Sugarhill Gang. You see, typically I’m slanging you some DraftKings knowledge here on the Razz but sometimes I like to slang other thangs at you and here’s my chance. So without further ado, here’s my take on week 14 two start pitchers for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…

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I don’t have enough spam, give me the Razzball email newsletter!

Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

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Let’s face it, Kings are pretty cool. Certainly cooler than a President, or a Prime Minister, whatever that is. I mean the only title more powerful than King is God. This is probably why people were so up in arms when LeBron James anointed himself King. I’m sure people wouldn’t have been nearly as upset if he elected himself President James. People hate presidents, People fear Kings. Presidents are chosen by mortals, Kings are chosen by God. The only president that is remotely badass is Abraham Lincoln and that’s mostly due to his downtime vampire slaying. Where I’m going with all this, is you should do what you can to acquire the title King, and if you can’t become a king, get yourself affiliated with one. Well, today you’re in luck, gambling-addicted man between the ages of 26-42, for hear ye hear ye King Felix Hernandez of Seattle has returned!

His highness gets the White Sox today on the South Side of the Chi. Facing Los Calcetinies Blancos at U.S. Cellular Field is no easy task for mere mortals, but for a King it’s just a worthy foe. On the really tho….Felix is matchup proof. First off he’s 10-2 with an Era of 2.10. That’s impressive even to you non-number driven baseball fans. For the hardcore seam heads his numbers are boner inducing. Just look at these sexy stats, 1.96 FIP, 2.37 xFIP, 9.61 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 54% GB%, 4.9 HR%, and a .28 HR/9. Those numbers are silly, and the FIP, xFIP, and a 72.8% LOB tell me he’s not even getting lucky. He’s just that dominant. His price point today isn’t that cheap but the numbers justify the $12,600 price tag on DraftKings. I think it would be regicide to not give Felix a place in your lineup card.

Before we get into the rest of the choices for the day, I have to mention how unbelievable the competition has been the last few weeks in the daily 20 team Razzball leagues on DraftKings. We now have a steady stream of regulars made up of readers and writers, who are jumping in on the action. Just case you don’t know, I’ve been putting one or two of these contests together everyday and sending the invites out early. The setup is pretty simple, 20 teams, $1 or $2 entry fee with the top 3 teams splitting the pot. It makes for a nice low risk high reward contest. If you win one, you can bankroll a week or so worth of play on DraftKings. Have we mentioned before that if you’ve haven’t yet played DraftKings you can signup by clicking here? Have we? I can’t recall. The best part is if you do decide to join us today DraftKings will give you a ticket for a free game just for getting started. I know that’s like too good to be true, but it is true!

So we have two leagues today on DraftKings the first of which filled. I just put together a 2nd and you can join by clicking here.

Now onto the picks!

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So I’ve decided to go on a hiatus from Razzball. It has nothing to do with Razzball itself, as I think this is a great fantasy site, with the best fantasy sports community I have seen. It has everything to do with me trying to limit my time spent on fantasy baseball, because life is getting crazy. I’m still considering writing again at some point once everything settles down [Jay’s Note: Please do, you’ve certainly spoiled us my friend.], but who knows when that will happen. With this post, I decided that it might be helpful to go over a few things I’ve learned during my time here:

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If you missed Razzball Radio this week, here’s your recap. By the way folks, we’re getting closer and closer to the 32in32in32 Razzball tour, and I’m not sure if you knew this, but you’re all invited. Even Grey. CRAZY, I know. While it’s a Fantasy Football tour (protip: Jay is releasing hisrankings right now…), there will be plenty of beer and Razzball to go around, so it’s not like you baseball folk will complain. I mean, you could complain, but why? Beer I tell ya, BEEEEER. Beer. So get your tickets for beer. I mean, you also get to support the thing you love (ahem, you know, Razzball), AND you secure a spot for our Razzball Fantasy Baseball Tour next year… you just can’t lose. Unless you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. Then, you know, well, beer. The answer to everything.

Don’t forget, the podcast’s (inside every video post) and the Daily Fantasy Hot Sheet (all the day’s fantasy news in under five minutes) are available over there. Also, beer.

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Ffffffft … BANG! That’s a bottle rocket in a nutshell. Actually, a bottle rocket in a nutshell isn’t feasible. What am I talking about? Oh yeah, happy Fourth of July, America. Bottle rockets are cool, but the fun doesn’t last long, and the finale is quick and to the point. That’s going to be the theme for this week’s article, because let’s face it, everyone’s in a rush to find some sand, sea, suds, and shorties. There’s always time for a little DFS action though, so head on over to DraftKings and set a lineup before you start grilling and/or chilling. In a rush? No worries, I have some players of interest you can peep, or just fire up any of Razzball’s DFS-friendly tools like Stream-o-Nator, Hitter-Tron and DFSBot. They’ll quickly provide the guidance needed, so you can get out there ASAP and enjoy being an American. We are damn lucky, so do it.

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 The moment I wake up
Before I put on my makeup
I say a little prayer for you
While combing my hair, now
And wonder what thong to wear, now
I say a little prayer for you

Forever, forever, Domonic, you’ll stay in my heart
And I will love you
Forever, and ever, we never will part
Oh, how I’ll love you
Together, together, that’s how it must be
To live without you
Would only mean heartbreak for me

Greetings!!! Tis I, Beddict the blessed, back up in that a** like a boomerang, and I’m not talkin Eddie Murphy. You know the thrown tool, typically constructed as a flat aerofoil, that is designed to spin about an axis perpendicular to the direction of its flight? We’re already off-track here! It’s been a rough couple weeks for your dear, dear, dear, most dearest friend Beddict, for not only has he been given the cold shoulder by Razzball Radio/TV, but he’s been c*ckblocked from writing for basketball next season. I’ll be making a televised announcement on where I’m taking my talents this Friday and “The Decision” may shock you. [Jay’s Note: Uh, Football Razzball?] Guru is hosting, it and will be naked. You won’t notice, for his body is 100 percent covered in tattoos. Anyway, you’re not here to listen to my whine and moan, you’re here for Disgrace/Delight!! Let’s bang this out like a meth’d out stripper!

Bryce HarperTha God is back!!! If you’re new to Beddict(me) then there’s a chance you missed THIS outstanding column from the pre-season. Read it and weep, for Bryce is our savior. Praise him.

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Like typical closenado news and happenings, it comes in spurts.  The White Sox, Giants, and the Angels all made changes this past week.  All changes were needed, but only one team, the Giants, look like they will try something new and not return to the original status quo.  Sergio Romo is a proven and decent closer, but he’s overused, predictable, and doesn’t throw very hard.  The change to Santiago Casilla and the cast of Affeldt, Machi or any other Giants RP seems to be temporary.  Casilla has done well in the past with 25 saves in 2012, and a shiny ERA that hasn’t eclipsed 3+ since 2010.  Consistency makes you reliable as a relief pitcher.  I stole that from a German beer ad, or at least I think I did…it was in German and me no sprechen di lingie.  So to continue the look down the road, take a look at the SF bullpen picture for next year and you’ll notice that Romo is a free agent.  So the point is: either Santiago Casilla is the answer there for a one-year stop gap, or should they look to, what is IMO, the best relief pitching group of prospects in baseball.  They have three guys who look to be ready (dynasty leaguers go get a pen!): Stephen Okert, Heath Hembree, and my favorite, Ray Black (public advisory over drop pens). So sit on Casilla if you grabbed him.  It could be a long ride, but big head Bochy, and the monsters of the SF bullpen have a proven closer that will, for all intents and purposes, be back…maybe.  It’s more fun to leave it suspenseful, like Murder She Wrote.

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Hello DK’ers, I’m glad to be back after my Brazilian excursion to get as hairless as possible. I’m trying to break into dancing like our boss Grey, or was that break dancing? Either way, the man has moves like Sam Rockwell. If there was a competition between us, it would look something like this. To this day, that still cracks me up. Sorry reader, I really need to get back to this drivel thing and in case you were wondering I am Barney in the video. I can’t help myself today, with Matt Shoemaker taking the hill, I get transported back to my favorite movie ever, Goodfellas! That’s right, I said that; Goodfellas is my all time favorite movie. You got a problem with that? In case you didn’t know, The Departed was the “I’m sorry we screwed up so we’ll give you one for an inferior movie Oscar” for Martin Scorcese. Why do I keep getting sidetracked? Dah!!! This scene (NSFW) is one of my favorites among many brilliant moments in that 1990 classic. I remember being in high school and sneaking into see this R rated flick because our local theater was unwavering on the 17 and over policy. I could go on and on about Goodfellas but I need to write about Matt Shoemaker and his low low price tag of $6,800 today. He’s been solid as a starter since moving out of the bullpen and has even posted a 10K game. Getting to face the team with the worst K-rate in the game, 23.3%, isn’t too shabby either. But here is the takeaway for him – he has a 2.54 ERA at home compared to a 6.66 on the road, devil arm! That’s good enough for me. You can choose to pay the high price tags of Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, or Max Scherzer and then compliment one of them with Shoemaker to leave you some extra dollars for bats.

Yesterday, the Guru talked strategy and I agree with him that you got to look at all the nerdy numbers but sometimes I think you need to go with your gut. Whether it’s the hot hand like Steve Pearce or someone due like Jay Bruce you need to take chances when you have limited dollars on the table. Like Guru, I have been on both ends of the batter vs. pitcher stats and all I can say is it’s just the numbers, the numbers ala Jimmy Two Times. Don’t lose your mind! But before I continue on I want to give a little B vs P advice that has worked well for me. Look at the K’s vs. the pitcher, when I have a guy that K’s a lot or doesn’t walk vs. a pitcher I generally stay away. That’s just me and my way to go about it. Sometimes you will see a batter who is 0 for 4 against someone but has 4 walks. I get interested when I see that and like the chance that a hit is coming soon. And now on to my DraftKings picks for today.

Please, blog, may I have some more?