Fantasy Baseball Advice

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.  Burp.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Finally, you can check out APPLES.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts.  To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.”  Though that might’ve been clear.  I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.

Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem).  This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start).  I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).

Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington.  I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.

Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky?  He should.  Give the ADL something to get worked up about.

Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”

Doug Fister -  Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier!  Hmm, that didn’t work so well.  But it is true.  I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.

Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before?  He pitches his home games in Colorado.

Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.”  This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.”  Two points for those that remember my use of plouping.  Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!

Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter.  How’s dem apples?  Golden Delicious!

Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy?  “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?”  A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google.  Too late, you cheated.  You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ?  Tommy Milone.  Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce.  Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.”  That’s good news.  Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you.  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks.  That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful.  For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130.  Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff.  Sorry, got a little Seussian there.

Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark.  Now remove a comma.  Okay, put a period there.  Yeah, that’s about right.

Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco.  As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.

Tim Stauffer -  I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.  Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?!  “How does Stauffer look, Grey?”  “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.”  “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.”  “There’s more where that came from!”

Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here.  Tim Hudson is out for a month.  I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped.  Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran:  2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.

Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119.  In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130.  I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative.  February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day.  Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger?  He’s only winning one more game?  I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried.  I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking.  February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk.  See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”

Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him.  He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers).  It’s worth taking the chance on that late.

Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid.  I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.

Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor.  On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room.  On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer.  On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.

Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.”  Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.

Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post.  SALE!

Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year.  He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?”  Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout.  And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.

Ok, this one feels like I’m cheating.  First off, I tell you I don’t like having to buy him as a backup for my 3Bs and now I’m telling you to pay attention to him.  Not to mention he is technically not going outside the top 300 ADP on mockdraftcentral as of right now.  Ok now that I’ve listed all the reasons I’m a downright hypocrite, this has to be the cheapest 3B,2B, soon to be SS in ESPN leagues player that should be a lock for .280 10/15 with 450 ABs with room for more power and speed in a very solid lineup.  There seems to be this strange belief that Nick Punto is somehow going to eat into his at-bats at SS this year.  Really?  If the Red Sox were that concerned with their defense, they could bring up their homegrown Rey Ordonez -  Jose Iglesias – and move on.  Nick was brought around to be a utility player on an older team.  He’ll most likely be used when someone gets hurt, as a late defensive replacement or just to be a little Punto (spanish puns!  ¡Muy bien!).  Mike Aviles is going around 278 ADP so you don’t have to be jumping out of the gates to get him in a standard league.  In deep league formats that play more than one at each infield position, Mike Aviles on your bench is a huge asset as he can fill in for days off and injuries to your main lineup.  Plus if you draft Zack Cozart and he’s a bust, you have a great consolation prize in Aviles to back him up.

Still not convinced?  Ok, let’s do a quick player A vs player B experiment.  In 614 at-bats, this shortstop is projected by Bill James to hit .279 with 16 homeruns and 15 stolen bases.  If we give Aviles the same amount of at-bats for his season projections, he hits 14.75 HRs and steals 20 bags while hitting .279.  I think the .75 HR is what happens when you try for an inside the park homerun and trip on grass, a la Braun last year.  But more to the point, who is he being compared to here you ask?  Asdrubal Cabrera, someone who will be gone before the 8th round is over in even a standard league.  Now due to his likely 9th spot in the Boston lineup, I do not see him getting 600 at-bats this year.  Despite that, it’s not like it’s a bad thing to bat in front of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez.  He’s going to see good pitches in that spot in the lineup and have a sneaky chance at scoring 60 to 70 runs.  Think of Aviles as someone who can plug your team’s holes when they need it…no wait, let me rephrase that.  He’s not going to win you your league, but he’s sure going to help you keep that lead up when someone in your infield goes all Ian Kinsler on you and gets a hangnail that sidelines them for a month.  There, that sounded like it could be watched on ABCDisnESPN.

Alright, so mockdraftcentral still has Allen Craig (or as I like to call him, Craig Allen because he has two first names and it’s just confusing) in their 300 ADP, and he’s getting drafted at a 61.5%  clip.  This wouldn’t seem like someone who’s flying under any radars, Grey or not.  However, they also have Jorge Posada drafted in 15.8% of leagues so let’s just realize there are some people who need corks on their forks out there who only draft players because they saw them in the World Series that one time.  Unfortunately, one of those Ruprechts out there might be lucking into a very valuable season.  I’m veering off the unbeaten path back onto the beaten to feature him because I see someone who is 2B eligible in yahoo leagues that could conceivably hit you 18 to 20 HRs with 450 at-bats.  Even discounting his 2011 line, you might stumble into a .280 average with 70 RBIs.  If you’re willing to draft Chase Utley or Rickie Weeks in the 7th round, I don’t see how you can’t like the idea of getting similar counting stats from the 20th round on down minus the steals.

Now for the Negative Nelly’isms.  Let me fill them in for you so you don’t have to waste finger strength.  But where does he play, ONC?  Ah, good hypothetical question, hypothetical reader.  Truth be told, I don’t know, all I know is there are plenty of question marks in the current projected starting lineup.  First let’s talk about injury bugs, a bug in the same genus as the ‘flu bug’ and the ‘acting bug’ if my knowledge of arthropods is correct (and I can assure you it’s not).  David Freese has been known to ride the pine with scrapes and bruises, Rafael Furcal has never seen a DL stint he didn’t like and Carlos Beltran is playing on borrowed knees; he may sprain one when he gets Niese’s nose job bill.  The great thing about Craig is that he can play a lot of different positions as he did last year when he had at least two games at each of the following: 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF.  Injuries move players all over the place and open chances to get him at-bats.  Let’s not forget that lineup has more holes than Mormon underwear (get it?  Holy underwear?  Hole-ier?  Yeah, it was a stretch.  Come pun with me and you’ll be more flexible than a Hatha Yoga instructor).  Jon Jay has proven nothing in CF and they currently have Daniel Descalso slated to start at 2B.  That’s a lot of meh up the middle which creates room for him in the likely event of nuclear suckage.

Looking back, I count 5 bolded names in that last paragraph that could allow Craig to sneak into the lineup.  I’m not mentioning Holliday or Berkman as they’ve stayed relatively healthy, though they are both getting a bit older.  So I guess I’m kinda mentioning them.  More of an FYI about possible DLs for a couple of ODB’s.  Wanna know what other ODB kept Allen Craig from fully playing last year?  La Russa.  You know, the guy who retired from managing so he can complain at the retirement center about the ladies trying to steal his Apple ID (inside joke from frequent commenter AdmiralTrey).  Without the lineup madness, Craig should have a great shot to build on his 2011 post-season.

As the world continues to be hyper about “what have you done for me lately,” fantasy baseball owners rejoice. It’s nice when your opponents look at 2011′s stats and think they are gospel because then guys who had bad years last year fall through the cracks. Even better if the guys between the cracks are in the form of hard throwing 200-K capable pitchers with great names. On draft day, saying Ubaldo Jimenez should give you an immense amount of joy. It’s a fun name to say, it’s hard to mess up, you can throw a lot of accents in it and most people will look at his 2011 stats and think you’re crazy for drafting him.

Sure, his 4.68 ERA and 1.40 WHIP were unpalatable. But, really, his year wasn’t that different (aside from teenager-level negative noise) from his previous seasons.

In 2009, he struck out 8.17 batters per nine innings, walked 3.51 batters per nine and had .280 BABIP and a 73.5% strand rate.

In 2010, Jimenez struck out 8.69 batters per nine innings, walked 3.74 batters per nine, and had a .271 BABIP and a 76.5% strand rate.

In 2011, he stuck out 8.60 batters per nine innings, walked 3.73 batters per nine, and had a .314 BABIP and a 65% strand rate.

From 2009-2011, Jimenez averaged a 3.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 197 K’s. During that time frame, his 44 wins are tied for seventh most and his 592 K’s are 13^th most.

If you want someone to blame for 2011, pick a spike in his HR/FB rate, a criminal strand rate and increased BABIP. In addition, for whatever reason, Jimenez relied on his changeup more than ever. This resulted in a big decline in swinging strikes and an uptick in contact. Jimenez will get his mojo back and figure out he needs to bring his slider and curve more often in 2012.

Certainly, he wasn’t as good as he was in 2010, but is nowhere near as bad as he was in 2011. Expect a 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 190+ K’s in 2012.

It’s ludicrous that Jimenez is being drafted after the likes of Cory Luebke, Tim Hudson, Matt Moore, Adam Wainwright, Johnny Cueto, Yu Darvish, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeremy Hellickson and many others.

Jimenez could be the best value at starting pitcher in 2012.

You don’t want two shortstops on your team.  You don’t even really want one shortstop, but rules dictate you have to have one.  So if you only want one shortstop that means you need two 2nd basemen if you have a middle infielder slot.  To take that one step further, you need a sleeper from the 2nd basemen in most instances because you’ll be drafting your middle infielder late.  Then you have Crappy Team Problems (CTP).  CTP is a problem all fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) encounter.  You want a sleeper that will be guaranteed playing time, but teams that actually think they can win don’t give rookies and sleepers playing time.  The only way you find those sleepers are on Crappy Teams.  One major CTP is no one wants to watch/root for a Crappy Team.  This doesn’t seem like it would play into fantasy, but I think there’s a bias out there with some people just avoiding certain teams.  Another issue, Crappy Teams don’t generate much offense, which hinders your sleeper’s potential.  But this drawback can also be a positive because teams with nothing to lose, except losing lots of games, will thrust sleepers into advantageous spots in their lineup.  But what makes them attractive in the first place is also their drawback, no one wants them, so they’re available for you.  So now that I got that verbiage out of the way that sounded much better in my head than on virtual paper, it brings us to Jose Altuve and what makes him a 2012 fantasy baseball sleeper?

In 2011 between three pro ball stops (including a stint with the Astros), Altuve hit 12 homers and stole 31 bases.  A large chunk of that speed was High-A which accounted for 5 homers and 19 steals in 52 games.  He wasn’t nearly as dominant in Double-A for steals (only 5) but he hit 5 homers in only 35 games.  Then he skipped Triple-A (or maybe he didn’t skip it but the Astros simply consider their major league team their Triple-A affiliate), and on the Astros in 57 games, 2 homers and 7 steals.  I imagine it’ll be up to Altuve to sink or swim this year in the majors.  And he’ll probably do a little of both.  As alluded to above, Altuve will be in the heart of the Astros’ order in 2012, so his counting stats should be good (for an Astro).  In the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, I gave Altuve the projections of 80/12/40/.265/24.  As I said there, that’s crazy optimistic, but not undoable.  The steals should be a lot easier to come in those projections.  The power might be a pipe dream like Pookie from New Jack City used to have.  Even if I were to be conservative and tell you he’s closer to a 6/17 guy, he’s still worth drafting for the chance for more.