Fantasy Baseball Advice

Sing it with me everyone: Tis the season for broke closers.  Tommy, Tommy John, John, John, John, John!  That sounded great.  Except for you in the back.  Thought I heard an old mule getting strangled.  The regular season hasn’t even started and we’ve lost Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson to the knife.  Last time I checked – which was like five seconds ago so don’t even attempt discrediting it – those two didn’t have a long injury history.  Throw in Drew Storen and his enflamed joint – hopefully he got his medical marijuana card for that – and you have a year already in flux at closer.  In this year of twelve after twenty – sorry, Grey has mandated calling 2012 that for Razzball now – we have only had one closer from the ‘my arm will fall off eventually’ club go down to injury in Andrew Bailey.  So what better year for Andrew Cashner to step up and give the San Diego Padres yet another reason to trade Huston Street to a contender by the All-Star Break if he doesn’t break before then (sorry, Pads fans, we know it’s true).

First off, there isn’t much to cull from his major league numbers at this point.  He has been on and off the injury list more than Hugh Hefner has been with his Playboy models.  This kid has struggled to stay healthy.  Alright, I know I’m being a hypocrite talking about an oft-hurt pitcher in a post about taking over for hurt pitchers but indulge with me for a bit.  Cashner is a former 1st round pick of the Cubs.  If baseball were 4-H and it’s draft the fair, Cashner would be a prize winning swine (If you’re reading this Andrew, I’m sorry I called you swine).  He has thrown gas for his career, averaging a 96.2 mph fastball; If you’re confused about mph and how it works, here’s a tutorial.  He was originally tabbed as a starter in the minors but last year flourished in the bullpen with a 1.69 ERA.  Now that last stat was a bit of a mirage due to his underlying xFIP, but he’s leaving a hitter’s palace for a pitcher’s haven.  Personally, I have him down for a 3.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP and an 8 K/9 ratio with room for more.  Couple that skill set with this being the Chinese year of the broken closer and you could have yourself some very cheap saves on the horizon.  Currently under 5% owned in both yahoo and ESPN leagues, go cash in on Andrew.

We here at Deep League Thoughts love things cheap.  If the 5 finger discount were legal, we’d be doing it hand over Doug Fister.  Over the course of the year, we’re going to keep our eye on the bargain bin FA market, targeting the guys that are less than 5 percent owned and try to sprinkle you with tasty little nuggets of info on these gems.  Alright let’s start…sorry, you still have to read…and you have to start a new paragraph to do it.  I know, demanding.

Ugh, catchers.  Worse, a fairly boring catcher.  Worserer?  A Mariners catcher.  Okay, now that we’ve gotten through the doom and gloom I’m about to rainbow and unicorn the shizz outta Miguel Olivo.  Quick player comparison here:

Player A: 25/82/50/1/.215

Player Zed: 19/62/54/6/.224

Ok, so we all know one of these players is Olivo, but which one.  Quick!  No google cheating!  Ok, you probably already knew.  The numbers truly aren’t as sexy as the other one but can you tell me who the other catcher is without pulling out your smartphone in class, Grady Sizemore?  And could you please stop taking pictures with it while you’re at it?  The answer is J.P. Arencibia who for some reason keeps getting the sexy catcher pick vote due to the home runs and that he’s viewed as a ‘safe’ catcher to draft.  I’m assuming people think the Jays will be content with another .215 average year because their other catcher is Jeff Mathis.  Well, Travis D’Arnaud has plenty to say about that, though we might need a French interpreter to fully understand it.  J.P. isn’t halfway out the door, but he’s surely not the Jays future catcher.

I know what you’re going to say, poorly constructed argument to get my point across reader: But the Mariners have Jesus Montero.  Yes, the Mariners went straight for the savior in trading away Michael Pineda over the summer.  So do you really think they’re going to make a prized hitting prospect don the tools of ignorance much this year?  Montero’s value is in his bat and his ability to turn Gatorade and sunflower seeds into beer and chicken in the clubhouse (which makes me wonder if he visited the Red Sox a few times last year).  If you want to throw Montero into the daiquiri mix, the Mariners will have three catchers this year with backup John Jaso.  To further a pointless analogy that I shouldn’t have started in the first place, Olivo is the rum, Jaso is the lime juice and Jesus is the dallop of delicious sugar syrup.  Why would they risk losing Montero’s bat to injury when they have two capable backstops already on the team (see, I told you the analogy was pointless; didn’t even refer back to it)?  The moral of this whole thing is don’t drink and catch…I think.  No wait, the moral of this is Montero is the team’s DH.  He DH’ed game one of the season and he’ll DH most games from here on out.  That means there will be plenty of at-bats to go between Olivo and Jaso with Miguel landing the lion’s share.  He should be good for a .225 average and 15 HRs.  Not rare air here, but not useless in two catcher leagues either.  In Fleaflicker leagues, he’s at 7% owned, and, even more egregiously, he’s at 0.8% owned in ESPN.  Alright, I’ve almost reached 575 words on a catcher.  That definitely is reaching my quota for the year.  ONC out!

First off, the story of Chris Capuano is just great.  Three years after getting seriously hurt, he was back in the big leagues in 2010, doing his thing.  But I’m not giving him the Greydar pub because he is a great story, it’s because he’s so cheap.  No, not like splits the tab with you on a first date and makes you pay more fare for the taxi because you live farther away cheap.  I’m talking about going behind Miguel Tejada according to Mock Draft Central and being the 97th pitcher off the board according to Fleaflicker cheap.

If you’re interested in surface stats, this post isn’t for you.  Capuano had a 4.55 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP last year.  Blech.  Move on and go read about how great of a control pitcher Philip Humber is and forget it.  Alright, now that we’ve rid ourselves of the non-believers let’s scratch and sniff the surface.  Why did I mention Humber?  They’re going in about the same spot in the draft according to fleaflicker, with Humber having a slight edge.  He had a 3.75 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP last year.  Yeah that’s a decent ERA and a useful WHIP but he had a 6.40 K/9 last year.  I just drooled but not out of excitement.  I fell asleep.  The puddle is in the shape of Doug Fister.  Same shizz, different team but more expensive than both.  Now could someone please clean this up?

Alright, let’s get statistical.  Don’t blink, it goes by really fast:  3.61, 3.86, 3.67.  Confused?  Yeah, probably cuz I didn’t tell you what those numbers were.  Those were the xFIPs for Fister, Humber & Capuano, respectively, in 2011.  The difference is Fister overperformed, Humber’s ERA was in line and Capuano underperformed his.  All luck being equal, the only thing Humber & Fister can provide you is WHIP help while Capuano is going to provide you with a 7.5K/9 base with room for upside.   Realize C-Cap (it’s my nickname for him…that I just made up…just go with it) also exhibited a K:BB rate of 3.17 last year, so he’s not a pitcher that goes all depressed teenager and hurts himself.  With a little better luck, you’re finding 150K over 180 innings and a 3.75 ERA.  It may come with a 1.30 WHIP, but you can take that from a $1 pitcher.  It’s like you just found a limited edition Yoshi-themed Wii in the Walmart bargain bin right next to all those Green Lantern DVDs.  Superlatives!  If you are targeting Jonathan Sanchez late in your draft, there’s no reason not to draw a bull’s eye on Capuano as well.  Sometimes it pays to be frugal.

I usually like to keep private emails private, but when it’s matters of the state or sleepers, all is fair.  The first email was from Hank from Dearborn, Michigan.  Hank writes, “Where’s Brennan Boesch?  I’ve been long time reader of Razzball and I wish to know the answer to this question.  Until I know said answer, I’m farting in your general direction.”  Eddie Murphy from Los Angeles writes, “I can’t believe you didn’t write a sleeper post about Brennan Boesch.  By the way, this is the last of my final thousand words I’m allowed to say before they stop letting me make crappy, family comedies.”  Finally, in writes Larry King, “Anyone see where I put my suspenders?”  Sorry, Hank, Eddie and Larry, Brennan Boesch has been on my radar, but I guess I just needed a little push from you guys.  So what makes Brennan Boesch a 2012 fantasy baseball sleeper?

January Grey placed him in a tier called, “At least two of these guys will break out and shoot up the rankings for 2013.”  Boesch could easily be that guy.  He reminds me a lot of Mike Morse as he was headed into the 2011 season.  All signs point to him about to break out.  Last season, Boesch hit 16 homers, stole 5 bases and rang up a .283 average in only 115 games.  There’s nothing there screaming out at me that is unlikely to happen again, so if you prorate all of those numbers up for 150+ games, Boesch looks like a legit third fantasy outfielder.  Since he’s about to be 27 years old, there’s a chance for more as he hits his peak.  Maybe peaking near 25 homers, getting lucky with runs and RBIs and hitting .280.  Basically, Mike Morse.  At the worst, he looks like a 1st half player.  Last year, 12 homers pre-All-Star Break, 4 after.  In 2010, 12 homers in the 1st half and 2 homers in the 2nd half.  Some ‘perts have been saying that’s a negative about Boesch.  I’d much rather draft a guy that I don’t have to wait on until June to start hitting.  At least with Boesch, you see dividends, then trade or drop him in July.  I predict by mid-April a common comment on the site will be “Boesch…and…bomb!”

This one goes out to the guy – one of the three TB fans that can actually be seen at a game – who was holding up the sign ‘Free Russ Canzler!’ last year.  You didn’t see that sign?  Yeah I didn’t either, mainly because it wasn’t there but since I don’t have cable I can’t verify that.  Can someone please tell me why a team that has been in the playoffs for 3 of the last 4 years doesn’t get more people at the actual ballpark without offering a Zimbear?  But back to what I had to say, Canzler was never going to see the light of day in Tampa Bay (How about I just go eat some hay. I could make things out of clay, and lay by the bay…) because he is not good at defense.  But this is a fantasy baseball blog, why should we care about defense?  Good question, hypothetical reader and the answer is simple: The Rays play real baseball against real teams…sorry, you expected more?  Oh, well Canzler has to play somewhere in order to be useful.  Their OF is full, the position he played in AAA is covered by Evan Longoria and they found their DH for the year in Luke Scott.  Also, the Rays are one of the top fielding teams in baseball.  There’s a reason a guy like Casey Kotchman got a shot to start at 1B for them last year and it wasn’t for his bat or his rapier-like wit.  They field a strong defensive ball club and Canzler was anything but a strong defender.  He racked up 13 errors at third base alone in 2011; fine numbers if he were a Milwaukee Brewer, but not for a utility role in TB.

So as the story goes, Canzler was traded to Cleveland in February for two meat pies and a 6 month subscription to Vibe magazine (every word after ‘February’ is still pending verification).  But why should we get excited about a soon to be 26 year old with only five major league plate appearances on his resume?  Sing it with me now:  Opportunity, opportunity, is knockin at your door…sorry, I started doing the jitterbug there for a second.  Russ has a healthy walk rate and has exhibited strong power numbers over the last two years, posting a .279 ISO in AA for the Cubs and a .215 last year in AAA for the Rays.  With a minor league K% rate above 20 percent, he’ll most likely saddle you in a totally non-sexual way with a .260 average.  That’s a’ight, but the ISO is what has me interested and also that I can’t tell you who is going to bat 6th in that lineup.  I can tell you Travis Hafner probably bats 5th when he’s healthy *Snickers*…the laugh, not the candy bar.  Sorry, the last time Hafner played in over 130 games was 2007.  Plus, Grady Sizemore needs a bench friend to swap funny doctor visit stories with over the course of the year.  I also can’t tell you whether Kotchman holds down the job at first all year.  I could go into extreme detail, but let’s just say his average from last year had a lot to do with his ground ball rate and how well that played on Tampa Bay turf.  He won’t be as bad as he was in Seattle but surely not as good as he was for the Rays.  With Lonnie Chisenhall looking more and more like he could use a AAA stint to start the season,  the Indians could use a little pop in their lineup.  Right now, Canzler is unowned basically everywhere — ESPN, Fleaflicker, Yahoo.  If he can get a starting job, he might land in a prime RBI slot.  With enough at-bats, 18 HRs and 90 RBIs is attainable.  Yeah, I know it’s not that exciting, but wait there’s more!  Alright, actually there’s not.  I just always wanted to say that.