Fantasy Baseball Advice

Eff it, I’ll get in the hype circle and mosh around a little.  Bryce Harper wasn’t listed in my top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  He wasn’t listed in my top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I did drop a Bryce Harper fantasy on you for a rookie nookie outlook thingie-ma-whosie-boobie.  He wasn’t included in my (fill-in any other URL link to another page — matter of fact, just click around the site.  Each click brings in 1/18th of a penny revenue!  Look, ma, I just made half a nickel!)  I don’t think we see Bryce Harper to start the year.  I’m not even sure if we see Bryce Harper by June.  I don’t think so.  As said in my Harper post, “I’m guessing (he shows up in the majors) some time after July 1st as the team starts to fade and they need to pull the ol’ “Hey, look at this new shiny toy” trick.  Guess it’s better than the ol’ “Shine a flashlight on a wall” trick, unless you’re trying to get Pedroia to crash into a wall.  Harper was signed by the Nats for $9.9 million (no word on how much of that goes for royalties to The Ultimate Warrior), and they want him to put asses in seats on Strasburg’s off days.”  And that’s me quoting me!  So what’s changed?  For one, the Nats made some offseason moves to better their team (and maybe better the A’s a little too).  For two, I don’t think this changes Harper’s ETA.  The Nats are selling a can of “We Got Promise” corn saying Harper is starting the year with them, but I think they’re still just trying to sell tickets.  If you lived in the Washington, D.C. area, I’d move, but I’d also buy a ticket to an early season home game if I thought Harper may be there in April.  So, if I don’t think we see him until July, what makes Bryce Harper a 2012 fantasy baseball sleeper?

The allure.  It’s like how all those stunods got on board with Hale-Bopp and decided to leave their earth skins back in San Diego.  The promise of a better tomorrow is a lot for even the most grounded individuals to handle.  Remember, no one’s happy.  Fill people with some promise and a bill of unknown goods and they think they’ve discovered a tunnel from Vegas to The Borgata.  In the final rounds, you can either take Yunel Escobar, who might actually be useful to your team, but have no value to anyone else but you, or you can take Bryce Harper.  If Bryce Harper somehow/someway/some-something makes the ball club, everyone will go looney tunes talking in Elmer Fudd voices and howling at the moon.  Then you can capitalize on the biggest craze since the Dutch first set eyes on tulips and sell Harper for a lot more than he’ll be worth.  For that reason alone, I’d take a late round flyer on the “We Got Promise” corn, too.

Have you heard I like Anibal Sanchez this year?  No?  What rock have you been living under?  Does your rock have an address?  Do you get mail addressed to “Rock?”  If someone throws a rock onto your street, does it confuse the postman?  Do you ever get mail that’s meant for The Rock that accidentally finds its way to your rock?  I have rock questions.  I haven’t been this excited about a man with a woman’s name since Jody Gerut hit 3 homers in September of 2009.  Anibal doesn’t have as many innings on his arm as most 6-year vets not because he’s a sissy with a sissy name, but because he’s had countless injuries and a labrum tear, which does sound like an injury that would happen to a girl.  He’s shown he can locate his pitches with authority, cutting his walk rate and bumping up his first pitch strike percentage to a new career high.  Not only is he commanding his pitches, but he’s also throwing them faster.  Most instances his past injuries would scare me away, but he’s actually gained speed on his fastball each year since 2007 with this past year setting a new career high for his fastball and slider velocity.  Maybe all those years of being toughened up from beatings as a boy with a girl’s name has finally paid off.  So what can we expect of Anibal Sanchez for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

The sleeper part is easy.  He’s being drafted after Hellickson, Cueto, Carpenter and near Tim Hudson.  To break down those four pitchers further.  That’s a Don’t Like, Don’t Like, Don’t Like and Injured for the 1st Month, respectively.  So you can get Anibal at a decent price.  He’s also coming off a year where he had a 9+ K/9.  There’s no other pitchers being drafted as late as him with a 9+ K/9 that don’t come with some serious baggage.  Like a four walks per nine innings-sized bag, or play for a team that might only win 70 games-sized bag.  The Marlins are primed to challenge for the pennant and their ace is Anibal Sanchez.  Not Josh Johnson as is being reported by everyone but me.  Last year, Sanchez had a 3.67 ERA, but a 3.25 xFIP due to a bit of bad luck.  Even if he repeats his shizzy luck and only comes away with 3.50 ERA and 200 Ks, he’s way more valuable than the other pitchers I mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph.  In the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, I put Anibal’s projections at 15-8/3.50/1.24/190.  If there’s one pitcher I want on every team that could sneak into the Cy Young conversation this year, it’s Anibal Sanchez.  Yeah, I’m shooting up some serious Anibalic steroids.

If you got into football a little early (shame on you) and stopped paying attention to baseball, you probably missed out on what Salvador Perez did. He got 158 plate appearances for the Royals down the stretch and hit .331/.361/.473 with three HRs.

Of course that is a slightly limited sample, he had a .362 BABIP and won’t be 22 until May – all red flags.

So, why do I, Albert Lang, like him? Well, he had tremendous success in the minors last season: .290/.331/.437 across AA and AAA. He is also a contact machine that doesn’t strike out a ton, which is fine if you hit the ball well (hello, BABIP). Perez had a 29.2% line drive and 41.5% ground ball rate last year. He hit few fly balls and even fewer (7.9%) left the park. He also wasn’t blown away at the plate: 8% swinging strike rate.

Even if the BABIP comes back to hover around .300, he should bat .290. In addition, he should smack 8 – 12 HRs, score 50 runs and knock in 60. You know what Yadier Molina will do? He’ll bat .280 with 10-15 HRs, 50 runs and 65 RBIs. Molina is safer, but where’s the fun/value in that, you ninny?

According to Mock Draft Central, Molina is the 179^th player and 10^th catcher off the board. Perez is the 347^th player and 26^th catcher off the board. According to Fleaflicker, he’s ranked 352nd overall.  All and all, I’d much rather have Perez at that price.

Mostly, I’m just trying to be a company man and reinforce the reasoning behind Grey’s ranking of Perez over Molina.

Max Scherzer has been almost exactly the same pitcher the last three years.  He pitches around a 3.75 xFIP then fights Nazis in the offseason.  (He sure is limber for being thousands of years old, made of mud and having two different color eyes!)  I say almost because his strikeout rate fell a tad in 2011, but nothing that I’m worried about.  His velocity was fully populated with speedballs.  Gas at 93 MPH on average.  Sometimes turning the heat up to 98 just to confuse thermometers.  Three years under his belt and he’s going to be 27 years old for half the season.  Don’t think we’ve seen the best of what Scherzer has to offer.  Can you tell my excitement.  I can’t even make complete sentences.  What’s got me even more excited for 2012?  He cut his walk rate last year.  To borrow a yokelism that no one says, that was the big junebug in his bonnet and he eradimacated it.  So what can we expect of Max Scherzer for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

He’s not a Nolasco or a Morrow.  He doesn’t perpetually have an out-of-whack xFIP or FIP or OMUPS (Other Made Up Stat).  In 2010 his ERA was actually better than his xFIP.  Does this matter?  I’m not sure it does, but it makes me feel a lot more confident knowing that he’s not cursed every year.  As previously mentioned, his K-rate fell last year, but it looks like it was an anomaly rather than a trend.  So a pitcher that is between 185 and 200 Ks a year that always has a 3.75ish xFIP is a solid number two.  Hey, Grey, I’m flush with solid number twos!  Thanks, Random Italicized Voice.  Yes, a number two that gives you a 3.75 ERA isn’t Cy Young material, but a pitcher with Scherzer’s K upside can give you a 3.30 ERA with 200+ Ks.  Now we’re in number one starter territory.  I see his line at 14-8/3.70/1.30/195 with upside for more.  (Bee tee dubya, we ARE putting aside that I call him a sleeper every year.  Thanks for not mentioning that!)  The only man that can beat The Detroit Golem?  The Verlander!

Brad Peacock isn’t even ranked in the top 150 starters for CBS.  Then again they have Javier Vazquez ranked 47th overall and he retired, so there’s that.  Here’s what I said when he was traded to the A’s, “Peacock had a great season in Double- and Triple-A last year, putting up a 2.39 ERA and a 177/47 K/BB line.  The A’s basically got Gio Gonzalez back.  I’m gonna be all about Peacock in 2012 like I just woke up from a nap after drinking seven glasses of water.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I obviously thought the acquisition of Peacock by Pitt was a great get.  I wonder if skinny Jonah Hill is as good a baseball evaluator as fat Jonah Hill.  I know he’s not as funny.  He’s not even as easy to look at.  Nothing worse than the nerd who gets the summer makeover and thinks he’s now cool.  You’re still a nerd, embrace your Jew-fro.  Don’t make me take off my mustache and smack you with it.  Peacock is done with the minors.  He has nothing left to prove, so I do think the understaffed A’s will show off their Peacock in their Opening Day rotation.  So what can we expect of Brad Peacock for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

He has a good fastball, but when Peacock is working off the curve his balls can be all over the place.  I’m sorry, I need to pause to giggle.   Okay, back to business.  Usually Peacock gets so worked up when he’s promoted… Okay, I need to just call him “he” otherwise I’ll never get through this post.  He tends to lose control and his ratios take a hit when he’s first promoted.  I’m thinking it’s because he gets over-excited.  Hopefully, he only has these issues for the first 40 innings.  That’s how long it usually lasts.  Luckily, his home park is very forgiving.  The exciting thing about him — the Ks.  C’mon, you knew that was coming.  He had a 11+ K/9 in Double-A and a 9 K/9 in Triple-A.  If he only gives a 7+ K/9, I’m still buying.  With some command issues, but nice Ks and no wins on the A’s, I see his line at 9-8/3.60/1.30/170.  Optimistic, but completely doable.  Peacock isn’t just a command a foul-mouthed old man will shout at the urinal, he’s a great sleeper for 2012 fantasy baseball.