Fantasy Baseball Advice

I sit in a circle of a overweight men.  One guy’s nervously tapping his foot, waiting to go for a cigarette break.  Another guy is downing doughnuts like there’s no “ugh” in them.  We all, obviously, have mustaches.  Everyone but me wears a Mets hat.  The guy next to me finishes his story about how K-Rod’s father-in-law used to come into his pupuseria and hook him up with free tickets.  He breaks down rambling about how he can’t drive past a Howard Johnson without sobbing.  It’s my turn to speak.  Getting out from under that cloud of Minayal is a good start for the Mets, but — and here I try to be gentle — I tell them I’m not a Mets fan.  One of the guys interjects, “I have an idear, let me smash you in your melon, you fargin’ icehole.”  Before one the “sanitation” guys can move in on me, I tell them about how much I like Jose Reyes for 2011 fantasy baseball.

Sure, it wasn’t all peaches ‘n cream last year.  Reyes’ walk rate fell off the map like the Earth was flat.  At 5.1%, it was his lowest walk rate since 2005, i.e., his first full season.  He wasn’t just rusty either, his walk rate didn’t get better as the year progressed.  The health questions are real too.  He started the year with thyroid issues and that turned to back and oblique problems.  So maybe he doesn’t approach 700 ABs like he used to.  He still had 563 ABs last year.  And he’s never been a guy that walks 100 times a season.  He’ll be only 27-years-old entering the 2011 season.  Last year, Jose Reyes’ ADP in ESPN was 74, which alone would have me more than happy to keep him for next year.  He’s a top option at an extremely shallow position.  Conservatively, I’ll give him the line of 110/12/60/.290/40.  If you get a bounce back year health-wise, you’ll have a top 20 fantasy hitter.  Or maybe I’m a fargin’ icehole.

Travis Snider hit .155 in April and nearly lost his starting job.  Where the OBP was solid in the minors, it abandoned him.  Nothing was working.  Then in May, he turned things around hitting .378.  Gaston giveth time, Snider giveth power and OBP until he hurt his wrist and went to the 15-day DL for 62 days.  Wrist injuries can be tricky things.  Maybe when he returned in August with little power he was still nursing it?  Maybe his power didn’t really return until the last week of the season when he hit four homers in 6 games?  Maybe Green Day’s been singing the same two songs for the last fifteen years, one fast and one slow?  I do not have the answers to these questions.  I’d like to think all three are answered in the affirmative.  So why is Travis Snider a 2011 fantasy baseball keeper?

First, and possibly most importantly, you have him for cheap.  If you don’t have him for cheap, then this is all moot, which only seems like it should be spelled mute.  Now if you do have him for cheap, the proverbially ship has not sailed for Snider.  What ship, you ask.  A only 22-year-old ship, I answer.  He has 1412 ABs in the minors and a .302/.376/.530 line.  That blows my mind.  At 22, 1412 minor league ABs?!  That’s a lot of solid experience.  Now he just needs the chance to do it in the major leagues.  If he didn’t lose 2 months to the wrist injury, this post would’ve been a no-brainer.  He would’ve had 25+ homers and a .275 average and everyone and their cousin would’ve been rolling Snider in their sleeves like he was a pack of cigarettes.  Oh, and if this sounds like a 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper post too, take it as one.  And did I mention he has some slight speed?  In 2011, I could see Snider giving 65/27/80/.270/5.  All those numbers are conservative and he’s most definitely a keeper if you have him for the right price.

The Dread Pirate is in the top five for Grey’s most favoritest players.  (People using third person for themselves is in Grey’s top five annoyances.  It’s irony!  Or not, did we ever decide what irony was?  Ask the British, offer them some dental assistance.)  Member when I said Andrew McCutchen was a poor man’s Shane Victorino?  Feign Victorino.  No?  Probably cause I said that about Dexter Fowler.  Nevethehoo!  McCutchen’s the next Carl Crawford.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious! (Assuming you don’t bite into the core.  Who thought it was a good idea to make the core barely different in texture and color than the apple?  I’m one-upping Mother Nature and saying the apple core should be made of titanium.  That’s me, my rules.  Carry on.)  So what did Andrew McCutchen do to be in my sights for 2011 fantasy baseball keepers?

In 2010, The Dread Pirate dropped his K-rate by almost 5% from 19.2% to 15.6% while keeping his walks where they were.  His BABIP was .311, which is probably a little low for him.  The line drives held, the fly balls dropped a little (literally!) and ground balls went up (or is that down?) a little.  In 2011, I could see McCutchen maintaining his .286 average or even beating it a tad.  He stole 33 bases and there’s little to think that won’t hold or go up as he turns 24-years-old.  His OBP is solid for a young hitter.  The power is real, but not real real like he’s going to hit 30 homers.  It’s real enough for a guy who can steal 40 bases.  15 homers seems to be the base.  20 homers doesn’t seem out of reach.  In 2011, 100/18/60/.290/38 looks like a conservative line.  He can absolutely beat those projections.  That, friend, is a top 10 outfielder with upside and a 2011 fantasy baseball keeper for Grey.

Momma Weaver has a mullet too.  Has to, right?  I mean, Jeff and Jered both look they’re on the way to the gun show.  When Jered Weaver comes in from the bullpen, he should be driven in an RV.  Okay, but his stuff is not trashy.  It’s nasty!  Hello, I am Almost Poet, I make almost rhymes.  They are enough to stymie! Doesn’t it seem that pitchers with mullets overwhelmingly pitch sidearm or from a 3/4 angle?  Both Weavers, Randy Johnson, Bronson Arroyo.  Which comes first?  Does having a sidearm delivery make mullets seem like a more attractive hairdo?  Or do pitchers with mullets adjust their pitching style to avoid the mullet wearing down their shoulder and rotator cuff?  Business in the front, party in the back, pitching from the side.  Okay, so what makes Jered Weaver a keeper for 2011 fantasy baseball?  Wouldn’t you like to know!  Oh, wait, I’m about to say.

Last year, Weaver’s K-rate jumped to 9.35 after a 7.42 rate in 2009.  He not only led the majors in Ks, but he was sixth overall in K-rate.  Only pitchers above him were Lincecum, Filthy Sanchez, Lester, Gallardo and Liriano.  Man crushes for one and all of them.  In 2010, the amount of pitches Weaver caused an opposing hitter to chase outside of the strike zone was 33.5%, up from 25.2% the previous year.  He threw his curveball 5% more of the time this year, which may be attributed to the ‘chasing outside the zone’ increase and his swinging strike increase.  The stuff didn’t get better, Weaver just threw more of the good stuff.  He also cut his walks down to a minuscule 2.17 per nine.  His K/BB rate was the third best in the majors, behind Cliff Lee and Halladay.  Yup.  Since Weaver pitched plenty of innings in 2009, there was no huge increase in IP from 2009 to 2010.  He faces the M’s and A’s a lot.  Not exactly scary hitting teams.  Finally, he’ll only be 28-years-old next year.  In regards to Jered Weaver for 2011, he’s a great bet to continue to progress, there’s no need to mullet over.

Lots of times I’ve been known to practice the art of Saberhagenmetrics.  A player does well, I back off the next year.  A player turns your team into his own private piss bucket and I get excited about his undervaluedness. (<–Made up word of the day!)  This isn’t the case with Joey Votto.  He, friends, is my new love.  I wrote him a letter the other day and it went something like this, “Blah blah blah I love you. Blah blah blah wanna hang out?  Blah blah blah what’s your home address?  Blah blah blah sorry, you felt the need to get a restraining order against me.  Blah blah blah see you in Canada, which is outside this restraining order’s jurisdiction!”  No reply.  Yet.  Anyway, here’s why I think Votto is a 2011 fantasy baseball keeper:

Last year wasn’t a complete fluke.  He did, however, have a dream season that I don’t think he repeats.  Yes, I like him, but don’t think he repeats.  It’s a paradoxical hedge and I’ll explain.  16 steals last year is not the high end.  It’s the high end taking off the high end’s ceiling and making a new high end.  He’s closer to a 8-12 steal guy.  Still good, but cuts his value a bit.  37 homers are terrific.  Don’t think he gets there again either.  He’s more of a 30-35 homer guy.  Still good, but cuts his value a bit.  In 2010, he swung at more balls outside the strike zone than in 2009.  Not a terrific trend.  What I think was going on is everything he was hitting was falling in so he was like, “What the eff, I’m going to swing at everything.”  Average might come down next year.  Not too low, probably closer to .310.  The Reds had one of those dream seasons where everything clicked.  If they’re off at all, Votto’s Runs and RBIs could fall a bit.  Now all this sounds like an overrated post more than a keeper post, but Votto’s still an elite first baseman in the prime of his career and a first round pick.  Next year, if you get 95/32/110/.310/10, you’ll take and love it.  Assuming you have him as a 3rd round pick or later, that’s great value and well worth keeping.